A View From The Sideline

A View from the Sideline

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The Haves and the Have Nots Yes, I know it’s not the 2007 Draft, but it’s the latest draft logo I had to illustrate my point. And, that is? Well, the discrepancy between the haves and the have nots is as distinct as it’s ever been in the NFL. It’s a long way back for these teams, but if there’s any hope, just check out the Broncos. The 6-0 Broncos...that’s what I meant. The NFL weekend has a Super Bowl IX rematch and a Michael Crabtree sighting. Good stuff. Catch Lance Zierlein from 6 to 10 am daily, alongside John Granato. Listen to John Harris on

the Sean and John show, with Sean Pendergast show 3 to 7 PM daily. www.1560thegame.com

NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN

WEEK 7

San Francisco (3-2) vs. Houston (3-3) October 25, 2009 - FOX 12 PM CST Vegas Line: HOU -3 / 44

2009 ATS Record 4-1-0 2009 Over/Under 2-3-0 Last 5 Games 10/11 L, Atlanta 10-45 10/4 W, St. Louis 35-0 9/27 L, @ Minnesota 24-27 9/20 W, Seattle 23-10 9/13 W, @ Arizona 20-16

t

2009 Ranking

106.2 ypg - 16th

Run Offense

77.3 ypg - 30th

160.8 ypg - 28th

Pass Offense

292.2 ypg - 3rd

22.4 ppg - 17th

Scoring Offense

23.8 ppg - 12th

88.6 ypg - 7th

Run Defense

125.0 ypg - 24th

234.0 ypg - 20th

Pass Defense

226.8 ypg - 19th

19.6 ppg - 13th

Scoring Defense

22.8 ppg - 22nd

+4 - Tied 8th

TO Margin

+2 - 11th

2009 ATS Record 4-2-0 2009 Over/Under 2-4-0 Last 5 Games 10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28-17 10/11 L, @ Arizona 21-28 10/4 W, Oakland 29-6 9/27 L, Jacksonville 24-31 9/20 W, @ Tennessee 34-31

Last Meeting: San Francisco - 20 vs. Houston - 17 (1/1/2006) When the 49ers have the ball... The Niners offense is pretty simple in terms of what they want to do. They don't want to trick you too much, they just want to hit you in the mouth with their running game and then hit a big play here or there. With Michael Crabtree on the field, the Niners might have another big play threat or they might have a rookie who is nowhere near ready to make a big impact on the game yet. The key isn't Crabtree anyway. The key in this one is the return of RB Frank Gore. While Gore was out, backup RB Coffee simply wasn't able to get the running game going and the Niners suffered because of it. I'm sure the Niners will look at beating the Texans the way the Texans look at beating the Colts which is to run the ball, control the clock and try and hit the QB. When the Texans have the ball...The Texans simply aren't going to give up on the running game no matter how sub-par it is has become because they have to make people respect the potential of the running game in order to set up the playaction passing and the middle of the field. Matt Schaub is putting up MVP-caliber numbers right now, but the Texans are going to be facing a 3-4 front that has given them tons of trouble in the past. The Texans pass protection has to be ready because there will be a ton of different blitz looks that the Niners will show so the newcomers at guard will have to be on their assignments because if they get confused, Schaub is going to get hit and hit hard. The Texans passing game will exploit the Niners secondary if Schaub is given time. 

Fantasy Report Michael Crabtree, Niners WR - If you picked up Crabtree this week and you are looking for him to do something this week, don't hold your breath.  He's still green.   Steve Slaton,Texans RB - More than likely you get more of the same with Slaton which is below average rushing yards and a decent amount of receiving yards.

Conclusion: I know that the Texans haven't been very consistent at home so far but there is no doubt that their defense is improving and the Niners are offensively challenged.  If the Texans don't fall apart on defense against the run, this one should go the Texans way but isn't this the same thing I was saying when the Texans played the Jaguars?

Texans - 23 vs. 49ers - 17

Atlanta (4-1) vs. Dallas (3-2) October 25, 2009 - FOX 3:15 PM CST Vegas Line: DAL -4 / 47.5

2009 ATS Record 4-1-0 2009 Over/Under 3-2-0 Last 5 Games 10/18 W, Chicago 21-14 10/11 W, @ San Fran. 45-10 9/27 L, @ New Eng. 10-26 9/20 W, Carolina 28-20 9/13 W, Miami 19-7

t

2009 Ranking

98.6 ypg - 24th

Run Offense

161.0 ypg - 3rd

229.2 ypg - 15th

Pass Offense

259.4 ypg - 9th

24.6 ppg - 10th

Scoring Offense

24.4 ppg - 11th

118.2 ypg - 23rd

Run Defense

106.4 ypg - 17th

241.0 ypg - 21st

Pass Defense

251.4 ypg - 26th

15.4 ppg - 4th

Scoring Defense

19.6 ppg - 12th

+5 - 7th

TO Margin

-4 - 23rd

2009 ATS Record 2-3-0 2009 Over/Under 3-2-0 Last 5 Games 10/11 W, @ KC 26-20 10/4 L, @ Denver 10-17 9/28 W, Carolina 21-7 9/20 L, NY Giants 31-33 9/13 W, @ Tampa Bay 34-21

Last Meeting: Dallas - 38 vs. Atlanta - 28 (12/16/2006) When the Falcons have the ball... The Falcons knew they had a much tougher schedule this year when it came to rush defenses but I'm not sure they were prepared for just how much tougher it was going to this year. Michael Turner is averaging just 3.5 ypc and the Cowboys are decent against the run so while the Falcons will try and get Turner going, don't for one second think that the Falcons won't immediately attack the Cowboys pass defense. The Boys are giving up over 250 yards per game and the Falcons multi-faceted attack can attack high or low and as long as the Falcons get protection against the likes of DeMarcus Ware, they have a chance to put up some pretty strong numbers. The Falcons offense hasn't been quite as potent as you might think, but the potential is there. When the Cowboys have the ball... The Cowboys offense and running game in particular have been pretty consistent but despite averaging almost 100 yards more per game than the Falcons, the Cowboys are averaging just 24.4 ppg to Atlanta's 24.6 so obviously efficiency isn't their greatest attribute. The Falcons defense is very much a "bend but don't break" entity considering that they are 4th in the league in points allowed but 24th in total yards allowed. The Cowboys are going to do what they do which is run it some and try and take some shots down the field and there really isn't any reason to believe that they won't move it on the Falcons as long as Romo keeps his head on straight. If Dallas doesn't turn it over a ton, they are going to have success on offense.

Fantasy Report Matt Ryan, Falcons QB - The Cowboys secondary is there for the taking and with the Falcons on the road and possibly playing from behind, Ryan is a good option.   Roy Williams, Cowboys WR - If you have a good option as a second QB, you can look in that direction, but I think Brady should be a decent play this week.

Conclusion: After two very good wins against the Niners and the Bears, it is time for the Falcons to crash back down to reailty in this spot. Their defense has been bending a little too much and the Cowboys are coming off off a bye week so this one will be tough for the Falcons to win on the road.

Cowboys - 28 vs. Falcons - 21

NFL NEWS AND NOTES 1. Is there anyone who did a better job of coaching in 2007 and 2008 than Jon Gruden?  In those years, Gruden's team that was lead by QB Jeff Garcia (37), previously undrafted RB Earnest Graham and WRs Joey Galloway (36) and Antonio Bryant. The Bucs finished with a 9-7 record in both seasons thanks in part to a solid, veteran defense and an offense that made just enough plays. What got Gruden fired was that he finished 2007 losing 3 of 4 and he finished 2008 losing 4 straight. Tampa was easily in the bottom quarter of the league in terms of talent on the roster but Gruden did one hell of a job there. New head coach Raheem Morris is facing a daunting challenge with this Tampa squad as they are in the process of going young.   2. Very shrewd move on the part of the Titans to strike up contract talks with DE Kyle Vanden Bosch right now.  KVB will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and my guess is that the Titans think they might be able to get a good price considering the fact that KVB has no sacks. The agent for KVB certainly can't be negotiating from a position of tremendous strength considering how relatively ineffective his client has been since the departure of Albert Haynesworth so it will be interesting to see how much guaranteed money KVB gets if the two sides can come to an agreement during the season.   3. If the NFL would push their trade deadline back just one week they might see a moderate increase in trades. As it stands now, there are too many teams who simply don't want to appear to be "throwing the

towel in" after just six games or who feel like they can't get good enough value back in return to be able to sell it to the owner and the fans. Part of me wants to see a few more trades before the deadline in the NFL and then there is part of me who doesn't want anything to do with a system that allows you to sell of players like in baseball.  

FANTASY NOTES 1. The Saints split carries between Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas and while I think Thomas is still the primary back (or majority back), the Dolphins rush defense is no joke so Thomas is flex option while Bell is a sit.   2. While Kerry Collins is still the starting QB at Tennessee for the time being, he won't be for long. At some point, Vince Young is going to be the new starting QB and when that happens, go ahead and downgrade Kenny Britt if you have him on your roster.   3. I know Browns WR Josh Cribbs probably isn't on your radar these days and why would he be with only 9

catches in 6 games?  However, with the Browns experimenting with their own "Wildcat" formation against the Steelers and with Cribbs having a background as a QB in college, he might be worth stashing on your roster if you have an opening.

 

Two important factors that should lead to a winning record for Texans While this blog and most NFL analysts focus on the play of the starters on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, there are two aspects of football that coaches harp on over and over as key elements to winning and yet fans don't spend enough time looking at them. Those two elements are turnover ratio and special teams. Gotta Go Get That Ball Turnover margin has probably been the most consistent aspect of their play that they have been unable to get turned around since the franchise got started in 2002. Here are the final giveaway/takeaway numbers in each season and the subsequent record.

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009













+/- -8 -5 +5 -7 -5 -13 -10 +2













Record 4-12 5-11 7-9 2-14 6-10 8-8 8-8 3-3

The Texans 2004 record of 7-9 was a bit of an aberration as we found out thanks to their follow-up 2-14 season in 2005. One of the reasons they were able to approach the .500 mark in 2004 despite have lesser talent was their positive turnover ratio. 2004 is the only season in franchise history that the team has finished with a positive turnover ratio (although they are currently positive this season). Return Them and Cover Them The best special teams units generally have very good depth at WR, RB, safety and LB and they have some big guys on the lines who can run a little bit on punt coverage and kickoff returns. The Texans roster was devoid of quality depth at those positions for several years, but as better players and overall depth was added to the roster we began to see an improvement in the return and coverage teams which is critical in the battle for field position. Here is how the Texans have ranked since 2002 in kick and punt coverage as well as kick and punt returns (rankings only take into account 16 AFC teams).

Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009







KCover 13th 13th 12th 5th 12th 11th 6th 1st







PCover 1st

8th 10th 3rd 8th 5th 13th 3rd







KR 13th 9th 10th 2nd 11th 2nd 11th 3rd







PR 7th 15th 11th 11th 4th 12th 3rd 4th

As you can see, the special teams are doing a bang-up job so far and not surprisingly, this Texans roster is as deep as they've ever been. If the Texans can continue to play well on special teams while taking the ball away more than giving it away, they should end up with their first winning record in team history.

TEXAS (6-0) VS. MISSOURI (4-2)



VEGAS SAYS: TEXAS -13 / 50.5

October 24, 2009 ABC 7:00 PM CST Nothing has come easy for the Texas Longhorns this season. Now, many of us expected Texas to be undefeated at this point in the season, but we also expected the offense to be clicking. A well oiled machine piling up 45 point outings with ease. Well, uh, it hasn’t quite been the case. Quite frankly, Texas Players to Watch the team’s QB #12 Colt McCoy WR #8 Jordan Shipley most valuable CB #4 Aaron Williams entity might be DE #2 Sergio Kindle defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who has the Horns playing the best defensive football since, well, I can’t remember when. Sure, OU is a shell of itself offensively, but the Horns knocked out Sam Bradford, held the running game to -16 yards and created five turnovers.

Missouri, on the other hand, has hit a road block with its offense as well. In losses to Nebraska and on the road at Oklahoma State, the Tigers have averaged a paltry 14.5 points per game. And, much of that has come with QB Blaine Gabbert struggling. Expect the Missouri Players to Watch Texas defense QB #11 Blaine Gabbert to follow the WR #81 Danario Alexander script that both LB #12 Sean Weatherspoon NU and OSU DE #85 Aldon Smith followed: take away the short throws - the bubble and tunnel screens and make Gabbert beat you downfield. The Texas defense is capable of doing that on the first drive of the game. The Mizzou run game isn’t much, so if Gabbert’s ‘easy’ quick throws are taken away, Mizzou will go quietly.

PREDICTION: TEXAS - 31 VS. MISSOURI - 17 Now, the Texas offense has to answer the bell this week against Sean Weatherspoon and company. But, the run game was improved with Fozzy Whittaker finding some seams in the OU ‘D’. His quickness is a huge key this weekend and another solid 85 to 90 yard rushing day should be enough.

OKLAHOMA (3-3) VS. KANSAS (5-1)



VEGAS SAYS: OU -7.5 / 54.5

October 24, 2009 ABC 2:30 PM CST This season hasn’t gone quite the way Bob Stoops and his Sooners imagined. Three losses by a combined five points would drive anyone mad, but consider the fact that the Sooners have lost these games playing without last year’s Heisman Trophy winner and All-American tight end. Would Sam Bradford and OU Players to Watch QB #12 Landry Jones Jermaine RB #29 Chris Brown Gresham be DT #93 Gerald McCoy worth more CB #2 Brian Jackson than five points? I would say yes, but then again, with this offensive line, who knows. Kansas hasn’t been playing with as short a deck as the Sooners, but a loss at Colorado may have exposed KU.

But, the one major difference in this game is the fact that Kansas has Todd Reesing and OU has a guy growing into the position and not quite there yet. The key for the OU defense is to not let Reesing continue to create one play after the other. If the Sooner rush four at him, the back seven has to stay alive Kansas Players to Watch QB #5 Todd Reesing when he starts WR #10 Kerry Meier to scramble. If WR #80 Dezmon Briscoe the Sooners RB #1 Jake Sharp send heat, which is what I would do, they’ve got to beat him up and make him throw the ball immediately. Get the ball out of his hands and force him into throws he doesn’t want to make. The Jayhawks will respond with screens, but at least it lessens the impact #5 can have on this game.

PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA - 28 VS. KANSAS - 27 KU is going to move the football. One could argue that this is the best, and most explosive, offense that OU has faced and that the OU defense is the unit truly under the gun. But, KU’s ‘O’ won’t be enough. Jones will be solid against an average KU ‘D’ in a much needed tough Big 12 OU win.

1560 The Game is a proud sponsor of both the Rotary Lombardi Award, given annually to the most outstanding interior lineman in the nation, and the Paul Bear Bryant Award given for the Coach of the Year. Here is my “unofficial leaderboard” for each award. For more info. on each award www.rotarylombardiaward.org and www.americanheart.org/bryantawards

The 12 semi-finalists were named last week, so it’s time to narrow the scope and follow these finalists this week. Here are some thoughts about key matchups to watch this weekend. 1. Tennessee travels to Alabama and must find a way to block #62 Terrence Cody, the Tide’s dominant nose tackle. The Vols found a passing game the past couple of weeks, but their bread and butter is running the football. That means finding a way to stop Cody from getting involved in the play. But, Cody has seen double and even triple teams before. Furthermore, if the Vols spend so much energy getting Cody blocked, Rolando McClain could have a huge game at inside linebacker. 2. TCU’s Jerry Hughes has probably his biggest test to date in the Horned Frogs massive MWC matchup in Provo with BYU. The BYU line isn’t one of the best lines in the nation, but QB Max Hall makes life tough on defensive linemen with his quick release. If Hughes can consistently get to him, then he’ll get some pub.

After seven weeks, some coaches are truly starting to emerge as realistic candidates to win the Bear Bryant Award for 2009. Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz has to be in everyone’s top three with what he’s done with the 7-0 Hawkeyes. Ranked sixth currently in the BCS, many thought that Iowa would be in the top three of the Big Ten and near the bottom of the top 25, but this team has exceeded expectations in a big way, culminating in last week’s 20-10 win over Wisconsin in Madison. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly continues to take that program to another level with a solid win over USF last Thursday night. Even with star QB Tony Pike going out of the game against a fast and furious USF defense, the Bearcats dominated the second half in a key Big East win on the road. Texas’ Mack Brown, Alabama’s Nick Saban and Florida’s Urban Meyer will be in the mix also with undefeated seasons. Now, two guys who probably won’t get much recognition (which is why I’m mentioning him now) are Temple’s Al Golden and Idaho’s Robb Akey. Those two programs have been consistently in the bottom five in the nation for who knows how many seasons. But, Golden has Temple at 4-2 and 3-0 in the MAC, while Akey has the Vandals at 6-1, undefeated as well in the WAC.