A View From The Sideline

NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN

WEEK 11

A View from the Sideline

Who wants revenge more?

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NFL SECTION BY LANCE ZIERLEIN

WEEK 11

Tennessee (3-6) vs. Houston (5-4) November 23, 2009 - ESPN 7:30 PM CST Vegas Line: Texans -4.5 / 48.5

2009 ATS Record 4-5-0 2009 Over/Under 6-3-0 Last 5 Games 11/15 W, Buffalo 41-17 11/8 W, @ San Fran. 34-27 11/1 W, Jacksonville 30-13 10/18 L, @ New England 0-59 10/11 L, Indy 9-31

t

2009 Ranking

161.8 ypg - 2nd

Run Offense

90.8 ypg - 28th

170.2 ypg - 26th

Pass Offense

284.1 ypg - 3rd

21.0 ppg - 18th

Scoring Offense

23.9 ppg - 14th

109.3 ypg - 16th

Run Defense

108.7 ypg - 14th

270.4 ypg - 31st

Pass Defense

223.6 ypg - 17th

28.3 ppg - 30th

Scoring Defense

20.9 ppg - 15th

-3 - Tied 22nd

TO Margin

+1 - Tied 14th

2009 ATS Record 5-3-1 2009 Over/Under 3-6-0 Last 5 Games 11/8 L, @ Indy 17-20 11/1 W, @ Buffalo 31-10 10/25 W, San Fran. 24-21 10/18 W, @ Cincinnati 28-17 10/11 L, @ Arizona 21-28

Last Meeting: Houston - 34 vs. Tennessee - 31 (9/20/2008) When the Titans have the ball... The Titans have scaled some of their passing attack back now that Vince Young is the starting QB but he's also played with a great deal more composure than we saw over the last two seasons and the Titans are getting the ball in Chris Johnson's hands as much as they can. The Texans obviously had major problems with Chris Johnson last time out and he's one of those rare backs who can take the ball play-side and go the distance or cut it all the way across the field and take it to the house. The Texans must play assignment-oriented football against Johnson and they can't over-pursue or miss tackles on the perimeter. Another point of concern will be the deep play ability of WRs Nate Washington and Kenny Britt.   When the Texans have the ball... Obviously the running game isn't where the Texans want or expect it to be but they are hoping Fantasy Report that their passing attack opens up the ground game some. So far we Titans Defense - The Titans defense haven't seen the effects of losing TE Daniels for the season and I'm went nuts with two defensive TDs last not sure it will make a huge amount of difference in this one weekend, but that are only an average considering how many problems the Titans have had against the pass start at best against the Texans.   this year. The Texans have turned the ball over three times in each of Matt Schaub,Texans QB - By now you their last two games while the Titans are a whopping +7 in turnovers know you have to pretty much start during their last three games. Protecting Matt Schaub was a big part Schaub most of the time because he's of the Texans win in Tennessee and it will be equally critical here putting up consistently winning fantasy because one blown assignment or slow spring out of the offensive numbers. lineman's stance and the Texans could find one of the Titans edge rushers all over Schaub and stripping the ball from him on a sack.   Conclusion: The Titans still have holes on both sides of the ball and it is the Texans job to exploit those holes. Over their last six games, the Texans are allowing only 60.5 ypg on the ground which might be the best in the league over that time frame. If the Texans can keep Chris Johnson in check, then Vince Young won't be enough to beat the Texans.

Texans - 20 vs. Titans - 17

HANDICAPPING INFORMATION

COLLEGE FOOTBALL Against The Spread Trends (ATS) Category

Away Teams

Home Teams Favorites

Dogs

Away Favorites Away Dogs

Home Favorites Home Dogs



Record



Percent







311-295-6 295-311-6 297-299-6 299-297-5 106-94-3 205-191-3 191-205-3 94-106-3













51.32% 48.68% 49.83% 50.17% 53.00% 51.77% 48.23% 47.00%

Over vs. Under Trends Category

Overtime Games Non-Overtime Games All Games



Overs



%



10 268 278



55.56% 45.58% 45.87%





Unders

%

8 320 328

44.44% 54.42% 54.13%



Top Trends Under is 9-2 in Oklahoma Sooners last 11 games overall Houston Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite Under is 9-2 in Ole Miss Rebels last 11 conference games Stanford Cardinal are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games Ohio State Buckeyes are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win BYU Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite Arizona Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog

NFL FOOTBALL

Against The Spread Trends (ATS) Category

Away Teams

Home Teams Favorites

Dogs

Away Favorites Away Dogs

Home Favorites Home Dogs



Record



Percent







75-65-4 65-75-4 69-71-4 71-69-4 25-21-0 50-44-4 44-50-4 21-25-0













53.57% 46.43% 49.29% 50.71% 54.35% 53.19% 46.81% 45.65%

Over vs. Under Trends Category

Overtime Games Non-Overtime Games All Games



Overs



%



3 71 74



50.00%

52.21% 52.11%





Top Trends Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog Road team is 7-0 ATS in the last 7 meetings between Giants and Falcons Under is 6-1 in Ravens last 7 home games Redskins are 1-5-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC Jets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Chargers and Broncos Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog

Unders

%

3 65 68

50.00% 47.79% 47.89%



LSU (8-2) VS. OLE MISS (7-3)





VEGAS SAYS: MISS -4.5 / 42.5

November 21, 2009 CBS 2:30 PM CST At the outset of the season, I thought that this matchup would be one of the best we’d see all season long. LSU with revenge on its mind traveling to face the hot Ole Miss Rebels with designs on a BCS bowl game...well, that’s how I, and others, perhaps saw this game back in August. Now? Well, other than it being the Dexter McCluster show, there’s not a whole lot to get excited about in the matchup in Oxford. But, as always, we’re going to try to be jacked up for one of the South’s more underrated and long lasting rivalries.

Ole Miss, on the other hand, played perhaps its best game of the season in a 42-17 pasting of Tennessee in Oxford in which McCluster accounted for 300+ total offensive yards. Stopping McCluster is a must for LSU, but even more so is getting the talented WR corp involved early and often. Ole Miss will blitz Lee and should leave Rebel DBs one-on-one. This year, LSU WR will win. LSU - 23 vs. Ole Miss - 21

The Tigers are coming off of a lackluster win over La. Tech in which QB Jarrett Lee finished the game 7 for 22 with a touchdown. No pick sixes, so that was good, but that was about the only positive for the Tigers that day.

CAL (6-3) VS. STANFORD (7-3)

VEGAS SAYS: STAN. -7 / 65

November 21, 2009 Vs. 6:30 PM CST The Game. Although these two stole that name from Harvard and Yale (okay, that’s tongue in cheek before I get hate mail from alums of these two great schools), this game has a ton of intrigue for the two rivals.

Cal must be able to get safety help into the box to stop Gerhart without getting beat deep by QB Andrew Luck. And, that’s just too difficult to do with the way Luck is throwing. Pick your poison - let Gerhart go nuts or Luck throwing for a ton of yards? Whether Jahvid Best is back or not, if Cal can run the ball effectively...maybe. But, Stanford is just too balanced. Stanford - 37 vs. Cal - 31

Stanford is perhaps the hottest team in the nation, riding the back of one of the most punishing running backs in the nation - Toby Gerhart. All the senior has done is rush for 1,395 yards and 19 touchdowns, including 401 and six in his last two games. Cal is known for late season collapses and this one had designs on another failure, but a 24-16 win over Arizona was the Golden Bears fourth in five games, setting the stage for the Game.

OREGON (8-2) VS. ARIZONA (6-3)



“Sneaky Hot Game of the Week” Virginia vs. Clemson ABC 2:30 PM It’s hard to really figure out what Virginia team is going to show up. But, with an opportunity to ruin the Tigers season, expect the Wahoos to bring their A game to Clemson. Unfortunately, UVa still has to stop Heisman candidate CJ Spiller. All the superstar RB has done is average over 200 ypg in total offense against Division 1A teams. But, the key in this game will be finding a way to stop WR Jacoby Ford. With so much emphasis on Spiller, the Wahoos will have to allow the speedy WR to be single covered. This should be his best game in a Clemson win CU - 29 vs. UVa - 24

VEGAS SAYS: UO -6 / 60

November 21, 2009 ABC 7 PM CST The Pac-10 race is quite convoluted, but if any game on the docket could spin this race into even more craziness, then this is it. The Ducks lead the Pac-10 with a 5-1 record in conference, including a dominating 44-21 win over Arizona State last week in Eugene. The Wildcats were a one-loss team going into last weekend, but after a Jahvid Best-less Cal team took care of business in Berkeley, the Cats went home needing a little bit of help to win the Pac-10. Most of said assistance will come from, well, Arizona this weekend if it can pull off a huge win over the visiting Ducks.

The Ducks are coming into this game quite like they did back in 2007 - the one exception being that QB Jeremiah Masoli isn’t disguising a season ending knee injury as Dennis Dixon did in 2007. The Ducks have proven that they are even more explosive and balanced than they were in 2007 when Dixon was at the helm. And, if LeGarrette Blount...wait, forget that, let’s just say that Texarkana’s own LaMichael James needs to have a strong game against the ‘Cats to keep the secondary honest. TE Ed Dickson should have a strong game against the Cats secondary and LB, and that could be the difference in a narrow Ducks’ win. Oregon - 42 vs. Arizona - 39

1560 The Game is a proud sponsor of both the Rotary Lombardi Award, given annually to the most outstanding interior lineman in the nation, and the Paul Bear Bryant Award given for the Coach of the Year. Here is my “unofficial leaderboard” for each award. For more info. on each award www.rotarylombardiaward.org and www.americanheart.org/bryantawards The four finalists get back on the field this weekend with two games left for each, with the exception of Ndamukong Suh and Terrence Cody who should both be playing in championship games on December 5th. Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska - whether Suh and the Huskers play in the Big 12 Championship game rests on this game, a visit from Kansas State. But, it’s a great opportunity for Suh to face a stout running attack and have a monster game for the voters to see. Terrence Cody, Alabama - this week won’t mean a whole lot for the big fella in the middle for ‘Bama. Tennessee Chattanooga should force Cody to the sideline as it’ll probably be 54-0 at half. But, Auburn looms for TC after Thanksgiving. Jerry Hughes, TCU - after a magnificent performance last week, the Horned Frogs travel to Wyoming to take on the surprising Cowboys. Should be able to equal sack total of last week against the Cowboys. Gerald McCoy, OU - a tremendous opportunity to show off the pass rushing skills Saturday against T Tech.

Although some coaches are starting to muddy the waters so to speak with quality wins down the stretch or unspeakable losses, one thing is clear - this is going to be one of the hardest votes in the three years that we’ve been associated with the Bear Bryant Award. Pitt’s Dave Wannstedt continues to lead the Panthers up the polls with one quality win after another. At 9-1, Wanny’s Panthers are primed for two huge collisions to perhaps win the Big East. Texas’ Mack Brown has the Longhorns playing as well as they’ve played since the 2005 National championship season. The dismantling of Baylor was systematic and direct in nature and proved that Brown is doing one of his best coaching jobs of any season. Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy hasn’t gotten a lot of credit for dealing with the hand he was dealt, but after a win over Texas Tech, there’s a good possibility the Cowboys end up 10-2 and in the Cotton Bowl. Cincinnati’s Brian Kelly has the Bearcats at 10-0 with two games left against Illinois and Pitt. Win those two and a bowl game and there may be no question who’ll be taking home the hardware from the award ceremony this coming January. The hard fought win over West Virginia, albeit at home, proved that Kelly can adapt and win games with two different QBs.