91. Aids A Crisis, A Historic View

410 Emporium Current Essays Emporium Current Essays 411 Atta CRISIS^ The Economic Co-ordination Committee of the Cabinet on April 9, 1997, decided to import 2 millions tonnes of wheat to preempt any future crisis. The wheat will be in addition to the 320,000 tonnes of wheat being imported from US for the next year. April 9 is the same date when in 1953, the then Prime Minister Khawaja Nazmuddin in a Press conference while giving details of flour shortage in the country announced that the government had approached the United States for assistance in the form of 1,000,000 tonnes of wheat, to avoid further worsening of the situation. In addition to the inadequacy of failure of rainfall, Mr. Nazmuddin attributed the food shortage partly to the fact that supplies of water in Indian-controlled canals had been considerably lower than even the water shortage resulting from natural causes would have justified; other contributory causes included the diversion of cash crops of some areas previously under wheat; boarding; and damage to crops by locusts. « The reasons for the present what scarcity situation nonetheless are similar to that of in 953. Last year the what production was short by about 3.18 million tons, the production remained 16.82 million tonnes instead of required 20 million tonnes. The farmers opted to go for crops with higher returns, the administrative corruption, acute water shortage, previous PDF government's alleged extra-releases of wheat to the flour mills, hoarding and its smuggling to bordering countries, mainly India and Afghanistan (annually about .65 million tonnes make its way to the Afghanistan) are often cited reasons by the newlyformed government. In 1953 like recently the food shortage and rising prices led to widespread unrest in the country. In order to meet the situation the then legislative Assembly granted the government on March 26 extra-ordinary powers, for a period of two years, to control the price, production and distribution of any commodity which was declared by the government to be "essential". Facing the repetition of same situation, the incumbent government has also asked the people to deposit money in Debt Retirement Scheme at least for two years. But the government ins 1953 failed to bridle the price of atta and (t increased by 25 per cent i.e., from 29 paisa per kilo to 25 paisa per kilo and the PML (N) government is also facing the ever rocketing price-hike of not only wheat but of all the essential commodities. The Sensitive Price Index SPI which is of utmost importance to every

government has shown in increase of 1.88 per cent during the week ending on April 9,1997. A tentative review of the four price since 1947 shows that the price of atta kept on increasing unhindered. At present we are standing at the same place from where we had started in. 1953. During 1958-69, the price of flour increase by 150 per cent from 20 paisa per kilo in 1947 (then support price of wheat was 10.18,per 40 kg which was increased to Rs. 10.72 per 40 kg in 1956-67) to 50 paisa with a 10 per cent annual increase. During 1970-77 the rate per kg was 80 paisa with 14 per cent annual increase, which during 1977-88 jumped up with 151 per cent increase from previous regime to Rs. 2.50 per kg, the average per year increase was 14 per cent. In between 1988-90, with 15 per cent annual increase the rat shot to Rs. 3.25 followed by with 12 per cent annual increase the rate reached at Rs. 4.25 during 1990-1993, 1993-96 saw an increase to Rs. 6.60 with a ratio of 55 per cent annual increase. It was.-an increase of 3300 per cent from 1947. At present in certain parts of Balohistan atta is reportedly being sold at the rate of Rs. 20 per kilo. This price-hike of flour contributed in political and economic upheavals in the country. And what ever reformative measures the government had taken to curb this tendency, had contributed inn straightening feudal gentry's grip on polkical region of the country and the agriculture sector on the whole remained immune from the government sponsored reforms. As till to date the land reforms collectively could only manage to distribute only 7.8 per cent of total cultivable land among the tenants. In 1949-50 the share of agriculture sector in GDP was 53.19 per cent it was affecting political scenario and now when its ratio is about 25 per cent it still is disturbing our social, economic and political fabric. Pakistan is an agriculture country. One, therefore, expects that its agriculture income would have financed the defence expenditures but side-by-side with weapons we import what, making substantial contribution in the country's trade in balances. During" the period of July-March 1996-97 the trade imbalances reached up to S2.624 billion. During this th.e caretaker government placed orders for the import of 800,000 fonncs of wheat because the PPP government's 1 million tonnes, whkh was preceded by a import of412 Emporium Current Essays 2,273,000 tonnes of what during 1994-95 could not fill the gap between hat production and consumption. From 1980-81 base the wheat import has increased from Rs. 1.25 billion in 1987-88 to Rs, 3.94 billion in 1994-95. At present at per government announcement 15,000 tonnes per day has been imported. However, it is ironic that except by floating tender of the import of wheat the government has yet to cover u with a substantial long term package to avert such a crisis. Based on the recommendations of 9 committees headed by MNAs representing the landed gentry, the Agriculture package has increased, as a short term measure, the procurement price of

wheat from Rs. 185 per 40 kg to Rs. 240 but the war in our borders would soon undo the effect because shortage of supply to these areas would ultimately increase the demand. The waiving off of restriction of inter districts movement of atta has added to the crisis. Even in Islamabad every shop keeper is doing rationing by only selling 5 kg per day per consumer. Such thing will eventuality disaffect the positive effects of Supply Side Strategy, the main crux of Sartaj Aziz's economic proposals. Because the tax-payers mostly consisted of urban population can not be move to pay taxes until the disparity continues between urban and rural population. Although the Economic package of March 28 has given incentive to urban population and Agriculture package of April 3 to rural but given the fact that landed gentry is still beyond the tax umbrella makes the difference. The cultivation area under wheat is 8,367,000 tonnes, per hector yield of wheat is 2100 kg. The wheat average last year had reportedly gone down by 5 to 6 per cent in Sindh and Punjab. In next ten years with a 3 per cent population growth rate Pakistan will account for 4 per cent of world population growth. From where we feed which a huge population? Cejtainly the gap between production and consumption will widen. For the solution we need a comprehensive programme. For that agriculture research is to be geared up. Currently Pakistan is spending 0.05 per cent of its GDP on agriculture research which is one fifth that of Bangladesh, one their that of Sri Lanka and one fourth of what Malaysia spend. Certainly, the government has to do a lot to tell we are not living in 1953.