8 Predicting

BASIC SCIENCE PROCESS SKILL PREDICTING KPLI SCIENCE MINOR LESSON NOTES BY SYLVESTER SAIMON SIMIN SMD, KTTC

WHAT? • Predicting is a process of forecasting events based on observations and previous experiences or certain pattern of reliable data. • Prediction are reasoned statements based not only on what we observe but also on the mental models we have constructed to explain what we observe. • Predictions are not just wild guesses because guessing is often based on little or no evidence. • Written in future tense Sep 8, 2009

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EXAMPLES • I see it is raining and the sun is coming out. There could be a rainbow. • When I flip the switch the lamp will light. • The weak magnet picked up five paper clips; I predict the strong magnet will pick up more. • If I release both balls at the same time, they will hit the ground at the same time

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PREDICTION BASED ON OBSERVED PATTERNS Date

Sunrise Time

Jan 1 Jan 15 Feb 1 Feb 15 Mac 1 Mac 15 Apr 1 Apr 15 May 1 Jun 1 Jul 1 Aug 1 Sep 1 Oct 1 Nov 1 Dec 1

7:24 7:20 7:12 6:52 6:35 6:08 5:42 5:21 5:00 4:31 4:33 4:56 5:25 5:54 6:28 7:01

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1. What time did the sun appear to rise on Jan 1? On Feb 1? 2. Would you expect the sunrise time for Jan 15 to be about halfway between sunrise time for Jan 1 and Feb 1? Is it? 3. Use the halfway method to predict the sunrise time for Feb 15. What is your prediction? 4. Predict the sunrise time for Oct 15. 5. Predict the sunrise time for Sep 10.

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SELF CHECK 4. Nov 1 – 6:28 Oct 1 – 5:54 34 min difference Half of 34 min is 17 min Oct 1 – 5:54 + 17 min 6:11 predicted sunrise time for Oct 15 OR 14/31 of 34 min = 15 min Oct 1 – 5:54 + 15 min 6:09 predicted sunrise time for Oct 15

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5. Oct 1 – 5:54 - Sep 1 – 5:25 29 min difference 10/30 of 29 min = 10 min Sep 1 – 5:25 + 10 min 5:35 predicted sunrise time for Sept 10

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WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE? • Information gained through the senses : OBSERVATION • Why it happened : INFERENCE • What I expect to observe in the future : PREDICTION

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ACTIVITY 1 Read the frames of the cartoon. Indicate whether each statement is an observation, inference or prediction

1. In about 2 minutes that mountain is going to blow sky-high. ( 2. I can feel the rumbling beneath my feet. ( ) 3. The rumbling is caused by the volcano. ( ) Sep 8, 2009

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ACTIVITY 2 WRITE YOUR OBSERVATIONS, INFERENCES & PREDICTIONS FOR THE FOLLOWING PHOTOGRAPH

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OBSERVATIONS

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INFERENCES

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PREDICTIONS

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THANK YOU

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