53. India, Iran, China Axis And Pakistan

222 Emporium Current Essays America needs Pakistan, should it be interested, for the time being, to retatti its single super power status or interested in keeping the existing scenario of uni-polar word to persist. Otherwise, an entire region with enormous resources and the large number of the population of the world, comprised pf China-Iran-India-Pakistan and Russia-Afghanistan and Central Asia states, are bound to form an alliance, defying the American's hegemony over the world, in the time to come. Pakistan has a very significant role to come. Pakistan has a very significant role to play in this alliance. Pakistan, friendly country to America and its ruling elites together with a good number of landlords, general and businessmen are impressed with the American advancement in technology and science and others enchanted with the American society and economic progress are interested to remain friendly to America even to the level of dictation. However, complaints against USA are growing and there are gross examples of ignoring Pakistan, betrayal or injustices are being voiced by the people of Pakistan. This has developed serious thinking among the Pakistan, even among pro-American Pakistanis to search for other options than USA. A stage is set in Pakistan, to deviate from the American option, should there be a good opportunity. This though is matured in spite of Pakistan's dependence on the American Arms and goods, Perhaps, the Americans understand to certain extent. In an attempt to reduce the bargaining position of Pakistan temporarily, America refused to ship the already paid arms to Pakistan. However, this situation is now changing. In fact, strategicajly Pakistan's position has increased twofold in comparison to that during the attack of Soviet Russia on Afghanistan. This is because an alliance, a block or an axis between Delhi-Tehran-BeijTfrg" together with Moscow is in offing. Russia, after five years of state of confusion has started rethinking to play its role in the world to challenge the American authority, hftwever, this time with the help of other regional countries. China under constant pressure of United States on various issues would like to reduce the American pressure over it but may not do so single Emporium Current Essays 223 handedly. To Iran, again America was posing serious threats to punish it and it is also trying to find a way to save herself from the American, threats. The Iranians are not so powerful to counter America, however, with the help of China and Russia, with whom the Iranians have developed good relations recently. The Indian case is a little different and is necessary to understand. It seems that India would play an opportunist role and is developing its market value while giving signals of collaboration with the new emerging alliance. Should Pakistan join this alliance the circuit shall be complete. Taking into consideration, Pakistan's close relation with the Muslim countries it was conceived as natural, some time ago, by United States that Pakistan may join this alliance. Therefore, the American policy-makers might have considered India as Defence Line against this

alliance. However, the American failed to communicate this idea. Russians impeded the American way in India and Russian influence and interest prevailed in India. In this situation, if the game is played carefully, Pakistan either can develop its own bargaining position or balancing position or join this alliance in a respectable way. In emphasised that enjoys best friendly relations with Iran and China", implying that talk to new axis would not isolate Pakistan among the littoral states. One could translate it that Pakistan is in touch witv these states in the alliance formation. Immediate after this, or it happened by chance, the State Department of United States confirmed it was wor,king with Congress on how to implement the Brown Amendment. United States gave clear indications after having completed discussion with the Congressmen through Deputy Secretary of State and National Security Advisor 'Equipment worth US Dollar 368 million was to be shipped to Pakistan'. This means that the State Department has rallies the situation to some extent. It now depends on how the Foreign Department of Pakistan and the Government of Pakistan can play, realising the situation to obtain maximum gains for Pakistan. In may opinion, it is the case of pouring arms and funds, if one can understand the situation in its real perspective. Pressler did so because the government through its official like Deputy Secretary of. State and Advisor to National Security made clear to him that the equipment worth US S368 million was to be shipped to Pakistan shortly. Pressler further said: "It is unfortunate that I am compelled to introduce this legislation as I had hoped that President Clinton would do the right thing and impose sanctions against Pakistan. I fear that if the President docs proceed, our nations' credibility as the chief enforcer of224 Emporium Current Essays Emporium Current Essays 225 International Nuclear Non-Proliferation policies would be crippled." In spite of the introduction of this bill, the American officials are hopeful that by the time the bill come into discussion or take an effect, the arms would have reached Pakistan. Strangely enough, Pakistani officials have declared the arms of US Dollar 368 million as junk except a few ones. According to the news, the emphasis of the Pakistani delegation visiting Washington within a few days shall be to return the money instead of the arms. Senator Pressler by and large has kept his posture as the representative of the antiPakistani lobby. Apparently, the American government representatives who met him on 21st March, if not playing any game against Pakistan, might have emphasised the importance of Pakistan and interest of United States and perhaps the threat emerging from that part of the world where Pakistan is situated. I do not know why Pressler could not understand. It is only possible that he is not fully brought into the picture or he may consider the emergence o£ this alliance as unreal. It would be a mistake, if it is so

understood as there are serious efforts to form the alliance and solid work has already been carried out. Regarding the potential of this alliance, it is also well conceived Like others, I have serious doubts about the intentions of India towards this alliance. India might be keeping an eye on the Central Asian market, her interest may be to create difference between Pakistan and Iran to isolate Pakistan so that Land Depth may not be available in case of Pakistan-India war while supportive to an axis. Further, India might be interested to enhance its importance with the United States and Russia while playing cards in & similar style as it did in cold war era. Furthermore, as some analyst believe that Indian and Chinese interests are in the clash and such a, more evident in the near future even in the economics field with the economic growth of China. Therefore, India does to fit in this alliance while Pakistan does. Nevertheless, there are others Mho Russia is interested to form such an axis to get rid of the American pressure which is increasing day by day. The Americans have tried but failed to capture the goods market of the twelve and half billion middle class people < f India. Russia blocked the way. Multinational companies have nit succeeded in India so far. Under the circumstances, the Indian interest lies witM Russia, Iran and the Central Asian States. The Indian dependence of the Russia Arms is also known. The Russians apparently not selling arms to Pakistan to appease the Indians. Therefore, according to some analyst, the Indian urge to join the pact is in the best interest of India. China is a vast county and its rulers have a tendency to look inwardly and it has rarely indulged itself in any sort of alliance. In spite of this, one cannot ignore that the Chinese they are looking for scientific development, better life for their people and economic growth and new markets. In pursuit of this, they feel American hindrances. Not only this, the Chinese Foreign Minister have moved up and down to reach some sort of understanding with Tehran and Delhi. The Chinese Foreign Minister first visited Tehran and then revisited Tehran to meet the Indian and Iranian Foreign Ministers couple of year before. There are rare examples that such moves are made by the Chinese. Then perceptions with respect to India seems to be that the differences with India may not be resolved in some years to come, therefore effort my be made to find out new area where collaboration can be achieved or try to limit the Indian capabilities to be available to fulfil the American design. The Chinese also understand the relation between Pakistan and America and they do not involve in any activity that may create differences between Pakistan and America, however, they had proved to be a friend in need and they are continuoiisly offering assistance to Pakistan. Nevertheless, the Chinese are not available to the dictations from America. Further there are reasons to believe that China is interested in checking America which is habitual in threatening various sanctions and dictation of different types and style. Iran has been very threatened by America, The Americans have tried to isolate the Iranians throughout the world, however, the European countries did not support the American move, in spite of the American efforts. Now, persistently American is trying to cut off Iran from the rest of the world. In the past it was in the form of war with Iraq. Even now, the American government openly say that with Iraq's Saddam Hussain Iran can be checked, A war-like scenario is t being developed around Iran's* border and

perhaps efforts and plans have been made to invoke Iran in any expedition like that of Afghanistan. It has been observed that Iran has been making desperate efforts to form a bloc against United States. Russians, of course, after being injured, have started to rethink to savour their lost pride. The demonstration in Moscow and a resolution in Duma to restore the lost Russian empire is depiction of the Russian people's will to emerge a one of the Worlds' Leader once again. Deihi-Tenran-Beijing axis is one of the very interesting development in which Russian involvement is quite possible. It is just possible & move of this axis may have started after lengthy deliberations between the regional counties. The Russians226 Emporium Current Essays are also complaining that the Americans have not fulfilled the promise to them regarding the Economic aid. Pakistan's position has been considered as very strategic but delicate as well. Pakistan has differences with United States. USA has deserted Pakistan after the withdrawal of USA from Afghanistan. The American enjoyed the fruits of Afghan war; their country became the single superpower. Not only this its aid was cut off. Embargo against arms was imposed. The army which was equipped with the American arms was effected significantly. Equipment became idle and turned as Steel Statues. In a scenario of Delhi-Tehran-Beijing axis, Pakistan shall further be punished being completely isolated from their traditional regional friends if it do not induct itself in the axis. I think there is necessity to start serious deliberations with these countries which were persuading Pakistan to join.