275 Ss Elections Supplement

Elections Supplement DDI 2008 SS Risha

Index Index........................................................................................................................................................................................................1

Index........................................................................................................................................................................1 1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................................................4

1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................4 1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................................................5

1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................5 1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................................................6

1NC..........................................................................................................................................................................6 Uniqueness – Deadlock in Congress........................................................................................................................................................7

Uniqueness – Deadlock in Congress.....................................................................................................................7 Uniqueness – Obama Winning.................................................................................................................................................................8

Uniqueness – Obama Winning..............................................................................................................................8 Uniqueness – Obama Winning.................................................................................................................................................................9

Uniqueness – Obama Winning..............................................................................................................................9 Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States......................................................................................................................................10

Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States..................................................................................................10 Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States......................................................................................................................................11

Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States..................................................................................................11 Uniqueness – A2: USA Today/Gallup Poll Says McCain Winning.......................................................................................................12

Uniqueness – A2: USA Today/Gallup Poll Says McCain Winning..................................................................12 Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan................................................................................................................................................13

Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan...........................................................................................................13 Internal Link - McCain Will Push Plan..................................................................................................................................................14

Internal Link - McCain Will Push Plan.............................................................................................................14 Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan – Distancing from Bush..........................................................................................................15

Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan – Distancing from Bush...................................................................15 Internal Link – McCain Will Push Nuclear Power................................................................................................................................16

Internal Link – McCain Will Push Nuclear Power...........................................................................................16 Internal Link – McCain Won’t Push Incentives....................................................................................................................................17

Internal Link – McCain Won’t Push Incentives..............................................................................................17 Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan...............................................................................................................................................18

Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan..........................................................................................................18 Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan if McCain Does.....................................................................................................................19 1

Elections Supplement DDI 2008 SS Risha Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan if McCain Does..............................................................................19 Internal Link – Economy = Energy.......................................................................................................................................................20

Internal Link – Economy = Energy....................................................................................................................20 Internal Link - Energy Key – McCain Win...........................................................................................................................................21

Internal Link - Energy Key – McCain Win.......................................................................................................21 Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush..................................................................................................22

Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush............................................................22 Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Independents/Moderates...............................................................................................23

Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Independents/Moderates........................................................23 Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – No Oil Drilling..............................................................................................................24

Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – No Oil Drilling........................................................................24 Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush.....................................................................................25

Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush.............................................25 Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush ....................................................................................26

Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush ............................................26 Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush ....................................................................................27

Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush ............................................27 A2: Didn’t Show Up/Vote for Warner-Lieberman.................................................................................................................................28

A2: Didn’t Show Up/Vote for Warner-Lieberman............................................................................................28 Internal Link – Bush Key.......................................................................................................................................................................29

Internal Link – Bush Key....................................................................................................................................29 Internal Link – Bush Key - Conservatives.............................................................................................................................................30

Internal Link – Bush Key - Conservatives........................................................................................................30 Impact - Obama Good – Global Warming.............................................................................................................................................31

Impact - Obama Good – Global Warming........................................................................................................31 Impact – Obama Good – Global Warming............................................................................................................................................32

Impact – Obama Good – Global Warming........................................................................................................32 Impact – Obama Good – Soft Power.....................................................................................................................................................33

Impact – Obama Good – Soft Power..................................................................................................................33 ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................33

...............................................................................................................................................................................33 ***RANDOM AFF STUFF***............................................................................................................................................................34

***RANDOM AFF STUFF***..........................................................................................................................34 Public Perceives Alternative Energy to Hurt Economy.........................................................................................................................35 2

Elections Supplement DDI 2008 SS Risha Public Perceives Alternative Energy to Hurt Economy...................................................................................35 Polls = Inaccurate...................................................................................................................................................................................36

Polls = Inaccurate.................................................................................................................................................36

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1NC A. Obama is winning the elections now but McCain is close behind because he’s supporting popular energy policies CS Monitor, 8/1/08, http://features.csmonitor.com/monitorbreakfast/2008/08/01/obamas-lead-narrowsamid-energy-worries/ Energy has played a key role in Senator McCain’s improved position in the battleground state polls, Richards said. McCain favors increased offshore drilling for oil, something Obama opposes. “Senator McCain has narrowed Sen. Barrack Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania by five points, probably because his energy policy is more in line in Pennsylvania – the Three Mile Island state where a surprising six in 10 voters now favor building new nuclear power plants, “ Richards said.

B. *link

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1NC C. McCain will push the plan CBS News, 7/30/08, “McCain Camp Sees Energy as Winning Issue” http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/29/politics/main4304929.shtml?source=mostpop_story Nonetheless, Republicans believe they are winning the perception battle on energy, and both President Bush and Congressional Republicans have begun spotlighting the issue. McCain senior advisor and spokesman Taylor Griffin promised that McCain will continue to press the issue, arguing that Obama "refuses to embrace real solutions." "It's important for McCain to show his action plan for domestic issues," Reed said. "The rap on McCain is he didn't have much on the economy, but the truth is for the last two months he's pretty much owned the energy issue. He has found a political niche, and he's filled it."

D. McCain can spin energy initiatives to win him the election John Fund, Wall Street Journal, 6/27/08, “No, McCain Isn’t ‘Doomed’” < http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121452433272409083.html?mod=fpa_mostpop> [] The McCain campaign can't expect to win the election on the strength of their man's personal appeal or character. He is most likely to win by engaging Mr. Obama on the issues, and forcing debates over competing visions of foreign policy, and the size and scope of government. Tackling concerns about energy and food costs are key. Here Mr. McCain has an opening. On many core issues, the country still leans right of center. In last week's Washington Post poll, 50% of voters favored a smaller government with fewer services while 45% wanted a bigger government with more services – the same percentage breakdown as in June 2004. In the Democratic primaries, Mr. Obama's ideas were rarely challenged. In the fall, they will be. "This election is remarkably fluid with two nonincumbents running," says pollster Scott Rasmussen. "Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds, and a third of independent voters aren't paying much attention yet." There is evidence that fall campaigns, which tend to focus voters on big-picture issues, usually help Republicans. In 1976, Gerald Ford was seen as a goner during the summer but rallied to finish only two points behind Jimmy Carter. A dozen years later, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush in June and July. He lost by eight points in the fall. In 1992, Bill Clinton had a 10-point lead around Labor Day. He won by only five and a half points. Even Bob Dole closed a 12-point Labor Day gap to only eight points by November 1996. If that history is a guide, a focused McCain campaign that clearly contrasts conservative and liberal approaches to the issues should have a good chance of winning.

E. McCain will attack Iran David Edwards & Muriel Kane 1/28/08 (“Buchanan: McCain win would mean war with Iran”, http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Buchanan_McCain_win_means_war_with_0128.html) Says McCain would provoke new wars, 'he's in everybody's face' "More wars" could prove to be the oddest of all presidential campaign slogans. Especially if it works. Presidential candidate John McCain shocked observers on Sunday when he told a crowd of supporters, "There's going to be other wars. ... I'm sorry to tell you, there's going to be other wars. We will never surrender but there will be other wars." MSNBC's Joe Scarborough asked old-line conservative Pat Buchanan about McCain's remarks, saying, "He talked about promising that more wars were coming. ... Is he so desperate to get off the economic issue?" Pat Buchanan replied that McCain never used the word "promise" but simply said there would be more wars, and that from McCain's point of view, "that is straight talk. ... You get John McCain in the White House, and I do believe we will be at war with Iran." "That's one of the things that makes me very nervous about him," Buchanan went on. "There's no doubt John McCain is going to be a war president. ... His whole career is wrapped up in the military, national security. He's in Putin's face, he's threatening the Iranians, we're going to be in Iraq a hundred years." "So when he says more war," Scarborough commented, "he is promising you, if he gets in the White House, we'll not only be fighting this war but starting new wars. Is that what conservative Republicans want? "I don't say he's starting them," Buchanan answered. "He expects more wars. ... I think he's talking straight, because if you take a look at the McCain foreign policy, he is in everybody's face. Did you see Thad Cochran's comment when he endorsed Romney? He said, look, John McCain is a bellicose, red-faced, angry guy, who constantly explodes." "Not a happy message," commented Scarborough. "Not Reaganesque."

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1NC F. Global nuclear war Jorge Hirsch, a professor of physics at the University of California San Diego. He is one of the originators of the physicists' petition on nuclear weapons policies started at the UCSD, 1/3/2006, America's nuclear ticking bomb, http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html If only conventional bombs are used in an unprovoked U.S. or Israeli aerial attack against Iran's facilities, Iran is likely to retaliate with missiles against coalition forces in Iraq and against Israel, as well as possibly a ground invasion of southern Iraq, that the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq would not be able to withstand. Iranian missiles could potentially contain chemical warheads, and it certainly would be impossible to rule out such possibility. Iran has signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (in 1993 and 1997 respectively), however it is still likely to have supplies, as determined by the U.S. State Department in August 2005. Early use by the United States of low-yield nuclear bombs with better bunker-busting ability than conventional bombs targeting Iranian nuclear, chemical and missile installations would be consistent with the new U.S. nuclear weapons doctrine and could be argued to be necessary to protect the lives of 150,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq and of Israeli citizens. It would also send a clear message to Iran that any response would be answered by a far more devastating nuclear attack, thus potentially saving both American and Iranian lives. However, the nuclear threshold is a line of no return. Once the United States uses a nuclear weapon against a nonnuclear adversary, the 182 countries that are signatories of the Nuclear NonProliferation treaty will rightly feel at risk, and many of them will rush to develop their own nuclear deterrent while they can. A new world with many more nuclear countries, and a high risk of any regional conflict exploding into all-out nuclear war, will be the consequence. The scientific community (which created nuclear weapons) is alarmed over the new U.S. nuclear weapons policies. A petition to reverse these policies launched by physicists at the University of California San Diego has gathered over 1,500 physicists' signatures including eight Nobel laureates and many prominent members of the U.S. scientific establishment (http://physics.ucsd.edu/petition/). Scientists object strongly to the concept of WMD, that lumps together nuclear weapons with other "weapons of mass destruction" and blurs the sharp line that separates immensely more destructive nuclear weapons from all other weapons. An escalating nuclear war could lead to the destruction of civilization. There is no fundamental difference between small nuclear bombs and large ones, nor between nuclear bombs targeting underground installations versus those targeting cities or armies.

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Uniqueness – Deadlock in Congress Both parties refuse to let the other get the credit for an energy policy CS Monitor, 8/1/08, http://features.csmonitor.com/monitorbreakfast/2008/08/01/obamas-lead-narrowsamid-energy-worries/ Congress headed home Friday for a five-week recess without passing legislation to deal with high energy prices that are at the top of voters’ concerns. Both parties in Congress played a role in blocking action on energy. Senate Republicans prevented action on a measure to curb speculation in oil futures. House Democratic leaders employed voting procedures that effectively blocked Republicans from forcing a vote on opening new areas to oil exploration, a step with widespread Congressional support. The stalemate has been driven, in part, by each party’s desire to keep the other from seizing the political high ground on an issue of paramount importance to voters as the November elections draw closer.

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Uniqueness – Obama Winning Obama has a small lead over McCain The National Journal, 8/2/08, < http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20080802_8275.php> That explains why Obama has only a 6-point lead even though Republicans are trying to hold the White House for a third consecutive term (something that has been done but once since World War II), while just 13 percent of voters say that the country is headed in the right direction and just 30 percent approve of President Bush's performance. The current political climate makes this election look like it should be a gimme putt for Democrats, yet with Obama seen as the only golfer on the green sizing up the shot, Democrats can't be certain that they will nail it.

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Uniqueness – Obama Winning Obama has a small lead over McCain Star News, 8/2/08, http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/471470 Still, the basic dynamics of the race haven't changed. Obama appears to have a small lead. But he doesn't come close to maximizing the Democratic vote. And there is some evidence that the balance of enthusiasm has shifted and that young people – who seemed to turn out and vote for Obama in unusually high numbers in the primaries and caucuses – are no longer so enthusiastic about him.

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Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States Obama has a small lead over McCain in the swing states Wall Street Journal, 7/31/08, http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/07/31/poll-shows-obamas-lead-narrowingin-swing-states/ Quinnipiac University’s latest swing-state polling suggests that Barack Obama’s foreign tour didn’t help him at home. Since the last Quinnipiac poll six weeks ago, Republican presidential candidate John McCain has pulled within the poll’s margin of error in Florida and Ohio and halved Democratic candidate Obama’s lead in Pennsylvania. In both Florida and Ohio, 46% of likely voters supported Obama compared with 44% for McCain, while Obama leads McCain 49% to 42% in Pennsylvania, down from a 12-point lead in June. Obama continues to lead on economic issues, although polling suggests that McCain may have found an opening on the issue of offshore drilling. In all three states, voters overwhelmingly said the economy was the most important issue in the election and Obama won the majority of voters focusing on the economy. But when it came to voters’ own finances, they said rising gasoline prices were the single most important economic issue, driving two thirds of them to support offshore drilling – a position that McCain adopted last month and has frequently criticized Obama for opposing. One in 10 voters said they have changed their minds in favor of drilling. Even when increased offshore exploration is explicitly linked to President George W. Bush, whose popularity remains at record lows, two-thirds of voters said they favor offshore drilling. More than 50% of voters still said renewable energy sources are the best way to solve the energy crisis, compared with about 20% who chose offshore drilling.

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Uniqueness – Obama Winning – Swing States Obama is still beating McCain in key swing states Kansas City News, 7/31/08, http://www.kansascity.com/445/story/728329.html Gallup's daily sampling of 2,682 registered voters found Obama with a 46-42 percent lead over McCain on Sunday through Tuesday. At the start of the trip, Obama led McCain by nearly an identical margin. Obama was up 46-44 percent over McCain in Ohio and Florida, and ahead by 49-42 percent in Pennsylvania. The polls were conducted from July 23 through Tuesday. No presidential candidate since 1960 has won the election without winning two of those three states, and Brown found that Florida and Ohio "are now too close to call."

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Uniqueness – A2: USA Today/Gallup Poll Says McCain Winning The Gallup/USA Today poll is not a good indicator of who’s winning Star News, 8/2/08, http://www.thestar.com/comment/article/471470 The Gallup/USA Today poll employs an unusual technique to decide who is a likely voter, and accordingly its results tend to vary more widely than other polls; political insiders tend to take its numbers seriously less as an indication of where the race is than as an indication of which candidate is benefiting, at least for a moment, from the balance of enthusiasm.

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Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan McCain would get the credit for an energy policy LA Times, 6/26/08, “Who’s ‘Dr. No’ of Energy Policy?” http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-trailno26-2008jun26,0,1158007.story [] Parrying Sen. Barack Obama's attacks on Sen. John McCain's energy proposals in recent days, the McCain campaign has begun to invoke a little cinematic history, labeling Obama the "Dr. No" of energy. These days on the campaign trail, it's McCain who's trying to cast himself as the energy policy trailblazer, pledging to help build dozens of nuclear plants if he becomes president.

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Internal Link - McCain Will Push Plan McCain will take credit regardless of the legislation – he supports any mix of alternatives. AP, 6/17/2008, McCain's Energy Plan Seeks Break From Bush, http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/17/politics/main4186261.shtml?source=RSSattr=Politics_4186261 A spokeswoman said McCain had neither erred in his earlier comment nor changed his mind since. "He said he is willing to look at all ideas not simply Republican or Democratic ideas," said Jill Hazelbaker, McCain's communications director. McCain said the time has come for the United States to make a "great turn away from carbon-emitting fuels." He called for greater use of nuclear power as well as for alternative energy sources and greater conservation measures. "Over time, we must shift our entire energy economy toward a sustainable mix of new and cleaner power sources. This will include some we use already, such as wind, solar, biofuels, and other sources yet to be invented," he said. "It will include a variety of new automotive and fuel technologies - clean-burning coal and nuclear energy - and a new system of incentives, under a cap-and-trade policy, to put the power of the market on the side of environmental protection," he said

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Internal Link – McCain Will Push Plan – Distancing from Bush McCain can and will pounce on any new energy policy to distance himself from Bush Newsweek, 6/26/08, “Modern Maturity” http://www.newsweek.com/id/143405 Like McCain's embrace of global warming as a national-security issue, his new stance on energy is a studied repudiation of the Bush administration. It is one of the ways he is seeking to neutralize Obama's relentless efforts to define a McCain presidency as a "third Bush term." "Some in Washington seem to think that we can still persuade OPEC to lower prices—as if reason or cajolery had never been tried before," McCain said mockingly in another speech this week. "But America is not going to meet this great challenge as a supplicant or a plaintiff." He was, of course, mocking Bush himself—who twice in the last six months has gone to Riyadh pleading for more oil production.

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Internal Link – McCain Will Push Nuclear Power McCain would push for any nuclear power proposal Wall Street Journal, 6/9/08, http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB121296676181055711lMyQjAxMDI4MTAyODkwNjg2Wj.html Sen. McCain has expressed support for the Yucca Mountain proposal. And while he opposes subsidies for many alternativeenergy technologies, he wants bigger incentives for nuclear energy, arguing that the U.S. "will not succeed in achieving independence [from] foreign oil nor...in addressing seriously the issue of greenhouse-gas emissions" without expanding its use of nuclear power. Many environmentalists see his stance as inconsistent with his free-market rhetoric.

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Internal Link – McCain Won’t Push Incentives McCain would vote against the plan Wall Street Journal, 6/9/08, http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB121296676181055711lMyQjAxMDI4MTAyODkwNjg2Wj.html For example, while Sen. McCain says he favors an effort to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil, his voting record shows a reluctance to support mandates, tax credits and other policies often touted by other politicians, including Sen. Obama, as ways to spur greater use of alternative energies and energy efficiency. Sen. McCain argues that many of the steps are little more than subsidies that enrich special interests. He has long called for scrapping the federal ethanol tax credit, saying America's corn-ethanol industry can and should stand on its own. He has also voted against requiring electric utilities to boost their use of renewable energy sources, preferring to let cities and states set their own targets for renewable energy. At a roundtable with business leaders in Washington state last month, Sen. McCain expressed reluctance to support government incentives such as tax credits for wind and solar energy. He compared his stance on the matter to his position on corn ethanol. "I'm a little wary -- I have to give you straight talk -- about government subsidies," he said. "When government jumps in and distorts the market, then there's unintended consequences as well as intended."

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Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan Obama wouldn’t get cred – he’s devoting less time on climate and more on econ Eric Pooley 6/ 13, 2008 Friday Slate Magazine “Ducking the Climate Debate” Copyright 2008 Washingtonpost. Newsweek Interactive Company, LLC. Obama had other reasons to duck the debate. After pleasing the environmental left in the primaries with his strong, detailed climate policy, he is showing signs of regarding the issue as a liability for the general election. As America's economic troubles mount, the stump time he devotes to climate change dwindles. Maybe that's because cap and trade will boost energy prices over the short term, at a time when voters are in deep economic distress and apoplectic about the price of gasoline.

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Internal Link – Obama Won’t Push Plan if McCain Does Obama won’t push anything that McCain pushes The McCain energy plan has left the Obama-ites sputtering that their candidate laid out a comprehensive energy plan last October. "You have it exactly backward!" Jason Furman, an advisor to Obama on energy, told me when I suggested that Obama was on the defensive. "John McCain is responding to Barack Obama, who has put forward a major and ambitious plan on energy.'' Frankly, however, no one really cares what Obama said last October. And there's no question that McCain's flurry of concrete proposals—including a call for 45 more nuclear power plants, a $300 million prize to the designer of a new electric car battery, overturning the 27-year ban on offshore drilling and a $5,000 tax credit for people who buy "zero-emissions" cars —prompted Obama to spend most of his own energy speech this week knocking those ideas down. That in turn generated a GOP Web video declaring that "Obama is Dr. No," complete with a Bond-like theme song.

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Internal Link – Economy = Energy Energy is the most important economic issue in key battleground states CS Monitor, 8/1/08, http://features.csmonitor.com/monitorbreakfast/2008/08/01/obamas-lead-narrowsamid-energy-worries/ A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday showed that energy and the gasoline crisis have “emerged as the dominant economic issue,” said Clay Richards, assistant director of Quinnipiac’s Polling Institute. Mr. Richards spoke at a Monitorsponsored breakfast for reporters on Thursday morning. The new Quinnipiac poll examined voter attitudes in three key battleground states – Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. “We gave people a list of retirement values, real estate, gasoline prices and food prices and said which one of them is the most important and more than one third picked gasoline prices,” Richards said. “The campaign seems to be focusing on energy.”

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Internal Link - Energy Key – McCain Win McCain can use energy to win the election CBS News, 7/30/08, “McCain Camp Sees Energy as Winning Issue” http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/07/29/politics/main4304929.shtml?source=mostpop_story "This is the first time the Republicans have felt upbeat and optimistic about a major issue in a long time," said Republican strategist Scott Reed. "McCain has framed the issue well, with solutions and a sharp contrast to Obama, and in Congress, Republicans seem to be rallying around this issue. They feel Democrats have boxed themselves in a corner." "I think it's one of the best issues they have," said GOP strategist Ed Rollins, who ran Mike Huckabee's campaign. "So much in the McCain campaign has been small and sort of nitpicky, and this is a substantive issue that shows that he has strength and some vision, which I think is very, very important."

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Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush Alternative energy incentives are a great opportunity for McCain to separate himself from the Bush administration CBS News, 6/17/08, “McCain’s Energy Plan Seeks Break from Bush” < http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/06/17/politics/main4186261.shtml?source=RSSattr=Politics_4186261> [] Republican Sen. John McCain called for a clean break from Bush administration energy policies on Tuesday, then promptly pivoted to accuse campaign rival Barack Obama of supporting recycled measures that failed in the past. McCain's bid to chart a middle course on a major issue hit a bump, though, when he criticized Obama for proposing a windfall profits tax despite saying last month he would consider the same proposal. In a speech in energy-producing Texas, McCain said the United States needs more oil than during the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s, yet produces less. Now, he warned, a single successful terror attack at an oil installation could plunge the country into an "economic crisis of monumental proportions." With President Bush's poll ratings at historically low levels, McCain often emphasizes his differences with the current administration, and he coupled his speech with the release of a new television commercial stressing an issue that appeals to environmentalists. "John McCain stood up to the president and sounded the alarm on global warming - five years ago," the ad states. "Today, he has a realistic plan that will curb greenhouse gas emissions. A plan that will help grow our economy and protect our environment." Aides said the commercial would run in several battleground states and on cable television over the next several days. McCain included little in the way of new proposals in his speech, other than to call for reform of the laws governing the oil futures trading market and to repeat his day-old support for an end to the federal moratorium on offshore oil drilling. He favors allowing states to decide whether to explore offshore waters. He said he would outline additional specific measures in the next two weeks, and instead, used his speech to make the case for eliminating U.S. dependence on foreign oil, call for a break from Bush policies and criticize Obama. "The next president must be willing to break with the energy policies not just of the current Administration, but the administrations that preceded it, and lead a great national campaign to achieve energy security for America," he said. McCain said the time has come for the United States to make a "great turn away from carbon-emitting fuels." He called for greater use of nuclear power as well as for alternative energy sources and greater conservation measures. "Over time, we must shift our entire energy economy toward a sustainable mix of new and cleaner power sources. This will include some we use already, such as wind, solar, biofuels, and other sources yet to be invented," he said. "It will include a variety of new automotive and fuel technologies - clean-burning coal and nuclear energy - and a new system of incentives, under a cap-and-trade policy, to put the power of the market on the side of environmental protection," he said.

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Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – Independents/Moderates McCain can spin energy initiatives to win him the election – key independent moderates will vote for him John Fund, Wall Street Journal, 6/27/08, “No, McCain Isn’t ‘Doomed’” < http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121452433272409083.html?mod=fpa_mostpop> [] The McCain campaign can't expect to win the election on the strength of their man's personal appeal or character. He is most likely to win by engaging Mr. Obama on the issues, and forcing debates over competing visions of foreign policy, and the size and scope of government. Tackling concerns about energy and food costs are key. Here Mr. McCain has an opening. On many core issues, the country still leans right of center. In last week's Washington Post poll, 50% of voters favored a smaller government with fewer services while 45% wanted a bigger government with more services – the same percentage breakdown as in June 2004. In the Democratic primaries, Mr. Obama's ideas were rarely challenged. In the fall, they will be. "This election is remarkably fluid with two nonincumbents running," says pollster Scott Rasmussen. "Some 30% of voters say they could easily change their minds, and a third of independent voters aren't paying much attention yet." There is evidence that fall campaigns, which tend to focus voters on big-picture issues, usually help Republicans. In 1976, Gerald Ford was seen as a goner during the summer but rallied to finish only two points behind Jimmy Carter. A dozen years later, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush in June and July. He lost by eight points in the fall. In 1992, Bill Clinton had a 10-point lead around Labor Day. He won by only five and a half points. Even Bob Dole closed a 12-point Labor Day gap to only eight points by November 1996. If that history is a guide, a focused McCain campaign that clearly contrasts conservative and liberal approaches to the issues should have a good chance of winning.

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Internal Link – Energy Key – McCain Win – No Oil Drilling The plan would hurt Obama because it doesn’t entail oil drilling which is very popular in the US Fox News, 6/24/08, [] With stunning speed, the presidential election has shifted from Iraq and health care to high gas prices and the economy. Stupid is the only thing disputing that. Americans are angry that both parties have sold them out on energy, and now working people are getting hurt badly. So who will benefit from this: Obama or McCain? It's hard to see how Senator Obama can exploit the issues, since he and his party oppose expanding almost all traditional energy production, and two-thirds of Americans favor more drilling.

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Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush McCain distancing himself from Bush – chosen issue is climate change Washington Post, 6-18-08, “McCain's Declaration of Independence”, The Ad: John McCain stood up to the president and sounded the alarm on global warming five years ago. Today he has a realistic plan that will curb greenhouse gas emissions. A plan that will help grow our economy and protect our environment. Reform. Prosperity. Peace. John McCain. Analysis: There is nothing subtle about this ad: The Republican senator from Arizona is explicitly trying to distance himself from an unpopular president. And his chosen issue is climate change, which just happens to have special appeal for independent voters. McCain broke with President Bush last month when he proposed mandatory curbs on greenhouse gas emissions -- a step the administration has resisted -- along with emissions credits that polluting companies could trade. McCain's approach calls for a 60 percent reduction in emissions by 2050, compared with the 80 percent cut being pushed by his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), and many scientists. While McCain is using global warming to neutralize Obama's charge that he's running for Bush's third term, he angered environmentalists this week by proposing to lift a ban on offshore oil drilling. The commercial, with a soft-voiced female narrator, begins with speeded-up images of polluting factories and traffic yielding to a setting sun. It ends with an image of McCain as the Western outdoorsman, wearing a work shirt and baseball cap as he stands on a mountain ridge.

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Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush McCain can spin the plan to help him in the election Carol M. Browner, staffwriter for the Boston Globe, 6/10/08, “On energy policy, is better than Bush enough? [] The next Congress and administration will have a historic opportunity to build on this momentum and deliver the American people a comprehensive program to reduce greenhouse gases. The voters this fall must decide an important question: Who is the best candidate to make that happen? Following Senator John McCain's May 12 speech on global warming, many hastily praised the Republican presidential candidate for breaking ranks with President Bush and his own party's orthodoxy by calling for mandatory greenhouse gas reductions. But we should not be so quick to give McCain kudos. While McCain represents an improvement over eight long years of denial and inaction by the Bush administration, being better than the current president is not good enough. In fact, McCain's record and recent proposals raise real questions about his commitment to the bold measures we need to combat global warming.

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Internal Link – Climate Change Key – McCain Win – Distancing from Bush McCain differs from Republicans – historically supports environmental friendly policies Jim Rutenberg, New York Times Staff Writer, 6-18-08, “McCain Showcases His Environmental Side”, ACCURACY In 2003 Mr. McCain joined with Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, then a Connecticut Democrat, to draft a bill requiring industries to cut emissions of carbon dioxide. The White House frowned on the bill, and it did not win Senate approval. Mr. McCain has also joined with Democrats in supporting the idea of a system allowing power plants and other industrial polluters to buy credits from more efficient producers that fall well below limits on emitting heattrapping gases. But Democrats and some environmentalists have criticized him for missing votes on bills setting stricter fuel standards and for opposing incentives devised to promote energy conservation and the development of energy alternatives, like the wind turbines and solar panels shown in this commercial. (Mr. McCain’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment on those criticisms on Tuesday, but he has generally favored market approaches to foster energy alternatives.) SCORECARD This spot does a good job promoting a major policy difference between Mr. McCain and President Bush (not to mention most of the rest of his party.) Promoting that rift could certainly help increase Mr. McCain’s appeal to the independent voters over whom he and Senator Barack Obama are expected to fight intensely this fall. But his call this week to lift the federal moratorium on oil and gas exploration and give individual states the right to decide if they wanted to allow drilling off their coasts, which is also being considered by Mr. Bush and is not highlighted in this commercial, may undercut its message. Regardless, the spot, with its “reform, prosperity, peace” tagline, is decidedly more upbeat than Mr. McCain’s last commercial, which was somber in tone and focused on war.

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A2: Didn’t Show Up/Vote for Warner-Lieberman Warner-Lieberman wasn’t getting a huge debate so McCain knew he didn’t need to show up Eric Pooley 6/ 13, 2008 Friday Slate Magazine “Ducking the Climate Debate” Copyright 2008 Washingtonpost. Newsweek Interactive Company, LLC. McCain was under massive pressure from party leaders not to appear. The Republicans were using delay tactics to obstruct Lieberman-Warner, calling it the "Boxer Climate Tax Bill" and claiming it would wreck the economy; the last thing Minority Leader Mitch McConnell wanted to see was McCain riding in on a white horse to step on their story line. For McCain, that meant passing up an opportunity to burnish his maverick brand with climate-sensitive swing voters. But since large swaths of the GOP base are climate skeptics and this bill wasn't getting a serious debate anyway, being a no-show was the low-risk option. So, brave Sir John left his gallant steed in the stable and went to some fundraisers instead.

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Internal Link – Bush Key Bush’s popularity is key to the GOP maintaining the White House Fred Barnes April 2007, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/04/hot_stories_blue_tide_leftward.html [] I think what Republicans need most right now is a strong finishing kick by President Bush, where Iraq is improved and Baghdad is secured and so on. That's what they need if they're going to hold the White House. If - if President Bush leaves with the level of popularity and support that he has right now, it's going to be hard for a Republican to win. He need - Republicans need the kind of finishing kick that Ronald Reagan in 1988, and of course George Bush Senior was elected president then.

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Internal Link – Bush Key - Conservatives Bush’s standing with conservatives is key to McCain’s success CNN.Com March 5, 2008 http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/03/05/mccain.bush/?iref=hpmostpop Republican Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas said McCain can now focus on solidifying support among conservative Republicans, the majority of whom backed candidates other than the Arizona lawmaker in the primaries, according to exit polls. "I think the endorsement of President Bush will certainly go a long ways toward that," Hutchison said Wednesday. "John McCain is going to be very focused on our base and the people that he wants to have in full force behind him." Despite overall approval ratings hovering just above 30 percent, Bush receives far higher marks from conservatives, and the McCain campaign thinks the push from Bush will bring the party in line behind their presumptive nominee. "He'll have the [Republican National Committee] behind him. He'll have a broad base of financial support. It's a big step," said Alex Castellanos, a GOP strategist and CNN contributor. A senior administration official concurred Wednesday, saying Bush will raise "a lot of money" for McCain. "He is extremely popular" with the GOP base, the official said." And so can do a lot to drive the base in the election, which will help across the board."

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Impact - Obama Good – Global Warming Obama necessary for citizens movement to solve global warming Paul Loeb, Affiliate Scholar, Center for Ethical Leadership, award winning author on citizens movements, Huffington Post, Yahoo.Com March 3, 2008 http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080303/cm_huffpost/089406 If I look at both Obama's record and his campaign, I see someone who understands the critical role of citizen movements and works to build them as a force capable of creating major change. That's what we've needed to address the major challenges of the past. It's what we'll need to address this ultimate crisis we've created through the combination of technological inventiveness and short-focus blindness. The Clintons may have spoken out against the Vietnam War when they were young, but they've been hedging their bets and distancing themselves from citizen movements ever since. We need a movement-building approach for global climate change -- and for all the other crises America's next president will inherit from Bush's disastrous reign.

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Impact – Obama Good – Global Warming Obama is much better than McCain on global warming Paul Loeb, Affiliate Scholar, Center for Ethical Leadership, award winning author on citizens movements, Huffington Post, Yahoo.Com March 3, 2008 http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080303/cm_huffpost/089406 While McCain talks a decent line, especially compared to his numerous climate change-denying Republican colleagues, he equivocates far more on the critical details, supports considerably more modest carbon reduction standards, and this past December abdicated the chance to cast the critical cloture vote and end a Republican filibuster that blocked the recent energy bill's most important provisions. Both Obama and Clinton get the urgency of the issue as much as any mainline American politician who isn't named Al Gore. But I think Obama is far more likely to pass anything close to the legislation we need, because of his ability to mobilize ordinary citizens.

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Impact – Obama Good – Soft Power Obama victory is key to restoring US soft power Paul Richardson, 1-28, 8, Religious Intolerance, http://www.religiousintelligence.co.uk/news/?NewsID=1508 In many ways Obama has just the right experience needed for a man to restore America’s place in the world. With his background it is hard to imagine him standing by and letting genocide happen in Rwanda as Bill did. His commitment to a rapid withdrawal from Iraq is ill-advised but it is a position that appeals to Democrats. If he ever became President, he would probably command enough ‘soft power’ to enable America to make a fresh start.

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***RANDOM AFF STUFF***

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Public Perceives Alternative Energy to Hurt Economy To the public, the plan would be perceived as hurting the economy Right Side News, 7/2/08, http://www.rightsidenews.com/200807021331/editorial/energy-independence-day-byhouse-speaker-pelosi.html The media mantra sounds similar. To journalists, “energy independence” means capping carbon emissions, investment in alternative sources of energy – even at higher costs to American consumers – attacking coal and oil companies, and opposing expansion of domestic oil drilling.

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Polls = Inaccurate Polls are inaccurate – the race is too close to call Seattle PI, 8/2/08, http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/opinion/373197_ratheronline03.html As your reporter read the umpteenth piece last week wondering why Barack Obama's lead in the polls (six points among registered voters, according to Gallup's latest) isn't "bigger," I remembered how Robert Redford recently said that you "could kiss the Democratic Party goodbye" if Obama, its presumptive presidential nominee, goes down in defeat this Election Day. A few words about these polls. First and foremost, no matter whom one wants to see in the White House, paying close attention to summer polls is pure folly. Some say to this line of reasoning, "Sure, but look at Michael Dukakis, for example: He was up 17 points over George H.W. Bush in 1988." And Dukakis lost – so what, precisely, is the point here? But as they say in the disclaimers that run at the end of ads for investment services, past performance does not necessarily serve as a predictor of future results. And it's worth remembering that polls haven't exactly been the most reliable indicators so far in this election season. Perhaps this is advantage McCain, as Obama polled better than he performed in the run-up to the New Hampshire and California primaries – and perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

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