2009 International Essay Competition - Sergio Santos

Essay Our destiny is not written for us, but by us – Barack Obama

Introduction It is wrong to say that words don’t matter. Over the course of History, many iconic figures have shared a few pearls of wisdom that today cover the walls and t-shirts of millions as a way to remind one how the right words can lead to the right action. As I started doing my bits of research to write this essay, I smiled at how its theme was presented: climate change. A couple of years ago “global warming” was the expression most used by the scientific community and the media vehicles and in my opinion, such rebranding was needed to truly reflect its actual scope and sense of urgency. When thinking about global warming, the first thing that comes to my mind is the fact that the average temperature of the Earth is expected to rise by 2°C or 3°C over this century, which at a first glance may not be a bad thing at all. If you live in Andhra Pradesh, India that might create a bit of a problem due to the already steaming hot temperatures experienced in the region; however, try to move to Reykjavik, Iceland and the idea of an earlier Spring and a later Fall may come off as appealing. In a country where ice is not only present on its name, a subtle increase in temperature must surely be a warm thought. If, on one hand, that part of the equation is certainly true, it is also true that climate is changing in many other ways: hurricanes that start showing up sooner than expected, cold and heat waves that hit unusual places at awkward times and a growing lack of balance in Nature, with ecosystems being disrupted and forced to adapt to these new conditions. I believe pretty much everyone today is aware that climate change is indeed a reality. Most surveys seem to support precisely that, but they also show another fact. When Al Gore, former Vice-President of the United States and one of the leading names raising the awareness of the environmental crisis, presented the latest developments to an audience, I wasn’t surprised to learn that addressing climate was rated the second least relevant from a list of topics deemed important to the regular person. Clearly, right now the economy is the number one issue on people’s minds with most of us having to worry about keeping our jobs, paying our bills and ensuring our short-term future such is the severity of the financial crisis that has sent shockwaves across the world. Other issues like fighting terrorism, ensuring cheap and universal healthcare, preserving a sound and moral education for our children or fending off illegal immigration were also perceived as more urgent, because the threats posed by such problems are dealt with on a daily basis. They affect individuals, families and

1

communities at the present, which in part explain why climate is left out as a bittersweet legacy for the future generations. The truth is that the priority and swiftness in handling challenges in climate is going to be tightly correlated to the perception of how strange the weather acts. It is often said that “to see is to believe” and unfortunately, only when hurricanes, wildfires or other natural disasters strike hard is the matter taken more seriously.

A bleak future? I live in Porto, Portugal and so far I cannot say I have felt any direct effect from climate change, even if for the first time since I can remember it snowed here in January. Located in the North Temperate Zone and bathed by the Atlantic Ocean, the weather here is mild with a narrow range of temperatures, relatively hot summers and cool yet rainy winters. Nevertheless, being a coastal city, I know there is a real chance that in the future Porto will be shaped not by urban planners but by the hand of water. Having been born and raised here, it would really be a sad day to see my hometown being erased from the map due to a lack of will and sheer negligence. I would however like to point out that while sea rise will definitely represent one major threat, places that are far away from the coast are not short on reasons to be alarmed either. Climate is affecting soils, with acidification and desertification being already an issue in some countries, such as Nigeria, Ghana or Kazakhstan. With contaminated or sterile soils for instance, total crop output would most likely decrease as population will continue to increase, creating an imbalance between population and resources, a principle outlined long ago by English economist Thomas Malthus. As one can imagine, in the worst case scenario, the combined economical meltdown and social unrest would be more than enough to affect everyone on the planet. It is clear that sooner, rather than later, this problem will have to be addressed. The only question is which generation will be the one to handle it. I am not even concerned how long we will have to wait for a solution, because we already have some available. We don’t have to wait, yet somehow, humankind seems remarkably similar to a university student that pulls an all-nighter in order to barely pass the following day’s exam, even though he or she had an awful lot of time to prepare and make sure the test would be a walk in the park.

Three dimensions from the past I often remember the time I studied abroad in the Netherlands as an exchange student. The first time I travelled by plane and the first time I lived on my own, even if for just 6 months. As I entered the last year of college, I was given the opportunity to select a few free elective courses and having studied computer engineering for the previous 4 years, I opted to venture myself into management and social sciences. It is quite curious to think that on my first class in Dutch soil, I had to make a presentation

2

about a specific water-management problem, a common subject in the country, but something I had never had to do before. The course, named “Technology and Society”, approached real challenges and invited students to come up with solutions that would provide the best feasible outcome according to three dimensions: safety, ethics and sustainability. In my case, I had to research about the Three Gorges mega-dam in China and learn to weigh the energetic demands of a fast-growing country against its social, ecological and economical repercussions. Regardless of my personal view, what is important to note here is that while there was some opposition to the project, its actions produced little to no results and the dam was constructed. Were the impact on the land documented and shared with the whole world and maybe the Chinese government would have thought about a better solution. Or maybe the public opinion would learn that such dam was indeed the best option for the time being. Ten years ago was impossible to hold the government accountable, but today the world is a completely different place. The current digital generation is much more aware of what is going on and the Internet offers tools to not only demand but also have transparency. Just like the “Technology and Society” course, when thinking about solving our climate challenge, I believe we have to come up with solutions bearing in mind those three dimensions. In the safety domain, we have to ask ourselves whether the current technology is endangering our people. TIME magazine released a list of the world’s most polluted cities in 2007 and it is definitely worth taking a look to see what is happening: industrial emissions that pollute the air and create the infamous smog, lead and chemicals that are thrown into the water poisoning fisheries and affecting people whose diet depend on them. In Linfen, China – a coal-mining city considered one of the most polluted places in the world – it is said that if you hang your laundry, it will get black before its gets dry. If people end up having to move out to avoid getting seriously ill, what does that tell you about the current safety level of our solutions? Also, people can’t move from land to land endlessly, which takes us to sustainability. Sustainability relates to development that does not deplete resources and does not harm the environment, but instead has its foundations in maintaining a state of equilibrium with Nature. It is a fact that one day oil and natural gas reserves will be depleted. Regardless of the environment, if no further action is taken, on that day society will have no other choice than to turn to other forms of energy, which can be renewable or non-renewable. If the option falls on the latter, the same problem will occur at a later stage. If we turn to renewable energies and environment-friendly technologies, the problem might be fixed. However, there is a catch. If our air, land and water continue to get seriously harmed, we won’t be able to resort to Nature for help by that time. Just like a body that is physically abused for several years, the planet

3

will eventually take its toll. The math is quite simple and it says the future can only be green. In terms of ethics, I believe the key words are responsibility and accountability. Is it fair that the burden of the wrongdoings of today will be inherited by the generations of tomorrow? How unethical is for countries to compromise the well-being of the planet for a faster economic growth? Nevertheless, and even though sound judgement and decision-making is sometimes skewed by special interests, I find it very reassuring that today common people can point the finger to companies and governments, forcing them to act in a more ethical way. Today, just about everything is recorded and it is very difficult to bypass public knowledge or hide any action that will not be in the best interests of the people. Last year, particularly, should have taught us an important lesson.

Yes, we could and we did it 2008 witnessed arguably the most powerful grassroots movement in recent History. By powerful, I mean in terms of organization, ability to generate enthusiasm and rate of success, not in terms of the actual goal per se. I am obviously talking about the election of Barack Obama as the 44th President of the United States. I started following Obama’s moves when he was still the virtually unknown junior senator from Illinois who was rumoured to be thinking about running for the Presidency. I guess, like many others, I was impressed with his ability to engage people in a more direct and eloquent tone. And like many Americans, I too was surprised to see a person who doesn’t exactly fit into the idea of the typical politician running for the top spot in the country. As a former community organizer, Obama soon realized that if he was to win the election he needed to unlock the will of the people and I believe two factors hold the key for such remarkable achievement. First, the Obama team focused on tapping small donors through the Internet. Myriads of people responded and he was able to gain a financial clout that ensured his voice remained heard and that his campaign continued to spread to all the 50 states. The other trump card was the number of younger volunteers who organized and worked tirelessly by knocking on doors, making calls, setting up offices and getting people out to vote. Political pundits credit both the campaign’s ground game and the higher turnout of younger voters as two of the reasons that put the Hawaiian-born candidate on the course of victory. Table 1 shows some of the impressive numbers of the campaign.

4

Table 1. Obama campaign’s final tallies

Fact E-mail list Best fundraising month Contributors Volunteers

Figure 13 Million $150M (September ’08) 3.1 Million 5 Million

Whether you supported Barack Obama or not, the vast majority would agree when looking back at the historical movement this election cycle saw. People spoke, mobilized and even expressed their frustrations when they felt their candidate made a questionable decision. United by an unshakeable faith and towards a common goal they regarded as invaluable for their future, people worked together to ensure they would achieve it, even when the odds seemed heavily stacked against them. By doing that, they created the ultimate lobbying group, a group that reflects the views of the people and uses its persuasion power to ensure government and/or companies work with them in order to serve in a better way.

Together we stand, divided we fall I must say that unlike many of the challenges we currently face, I don’t believe we can make a significant difference on climate through an array of sparse NGOs. Usually, those organizations provide aid at local or regional level and it is plausible to say their mission can be attained by a set of smaller and atomic steps. For instance, if they can take at least one individual out of poverty or guarantee education to a small village, then the world is better off. Unfortunately, climate doesn’t work that way. The actions carried out by an individual to optimize his or her environmental footprint are largely offset by the lack of effort put on by others. Take Costa Rica for instance. The tiny country from Central America is largely (>90%) powered by renewable energies, planted 5 million trees in 2007 and has set the ambitious goal of getting carbon-neutral (i.e., achieving net zero carbon emissions) by 2021. Such a commendable example is however undermined by energyhungry countries like China, India or US. This fact calls for a global awareness and for an intrinsic agreement we all ought to comply. Non-governmental organizations work independently and, in my opinion, governments have to be involved to provide the building blocks and enact the changes that need to be made. Naturally, there is still room for those organizations. NGOs can use eager-to-help volunteers to teach less educated communities on how to reduce their carbon footprint or how to engage in more environment-friendly practices.

5

Earlier, I mentioned that today we have the means to overcome this challenge and rightly so. We still lack the green technologies that would solve our environmental woes right away, because at the moment they are either inefficient or expensive for widespread adoption. It is a process that takes some time but there is one thing we can do about it: use other available tools to tackle the current challenges and speed that process. The answer? The power of global networks. An arrow is easily broken, but not ten in a bundle – Japanese saying One of the theories I find very interesting in economics is the one of network externalities (or bandwagon effect to put it simpler). Such concept usually states that technology subject to strong network effects tends to exhibit an exponential growth. The pattern is more or less like the following: as its user base is slowly built, more and more users will start to adopt the product or service. Eventually, it will attain a strong market share and gain a competitive edge. One wellknown example of that phenomenon is the iPod. Apple’s device is so popular that mp3 players could fall into two categories: the iPods and the others. Due to its design and features, people started to choose Apple when purchasing an mp3 player and as the network continued to grow more people were willing to buy an iPod because its total value also increased. With more units available, there is more music to share using Apple’s iTunes software and more reasons for non-iPod owners to buy one. This type of network is difficult to break, because users recognize the overall worth of the solution and have very few incentives to change their stance. The same principle can be applied to the way people organize and express their opinions. More and more, people are acknowledging that while their individual bargaining power in terms of how a government should work may be small, their aggregate power may just be enough to tilt the scales.

Organizing 2.0 Years ago, activists were seen and portrayed as rebels who sought media’s attention through over-the-top antics. The ideals might be there, but it was difficult to claim any positive result with those tactics. Today, each and every one of us is one or two clicks away from becoming an activist. But more than that, with the proliferation of web 2.0, it is easy for people with shared ideals or goals to collaborate and actually do something meaningful. British Airports Authority learnt that when protesters at Heathrow airport voiced their concerns over an eventual third runaway. Apart from the traditional demonstration at the airport, more than 1000 people – including some celebrities – applied to become co-owners of an acre of land near the airport, with the hope of delaying the project. BAA or the government would have to contact that small network of land-owners and

6

make them each offer so that they could have a green light. That would prove both time-consuming and expensive, seriously compromising the project feasibility. Another example of how modern protests are being conducted comes from Tim DeCristopher, a college student who halted a multi-million dollar land auction that would probably see thousands of acres of land going to oil and gas companies. Knowing about the auction beforehand, he decided that he too would enter the fray and place some bids. Even if he couldn’t prevent the deals from being struck, he would at least drive the prices up. DeCristopher started to win parcels of land, but soon officials realized what he was up to and took him into custody. At the time, authorities wanted to prosecute the 27 year-old student should he failed to pay what he supposedly bought. Here is where it gets interesting. After he and his friends put out an appeal on the Internet, he was able to raise over $100,000 in donations, enough to cover his legal expenses and the start-up payment for the land rights. What do these examples teach me? That while activism may get you visibility, organizing and building an effective network may just deliver the desired results.

Netroots as the foundations of a new organization model Jamais Cascio, an ethical futurist, spoke at a TED conference in 2006 about the project he envisioned to help creating a better work and dealing with the environmental crisis. The project, dubbed “Earth Witness”, intended to become a global portal where participants from all over the planet would be able to share relevant photos and videos and discuss some new ideas about the climate. Cascio’s idea is more than two years old, but I think we are now able to improve it and go way beyond. A proper youth-led initiative to bring a positive change to the world requires visibility, enthusiasm and a realistic agenda. The idea of using the internet as a communication vessel makes perfect sense. It is fast, accessible and geared towards the younger and more adept generations. Climate change is also drawing a lot of interest among that segment. For instance, Facebook has now more than 2.5 million people enlisted in its “Stop Global Warming” cause. The netroots (portmanteau of the words Internet and grassroots) would represent the first step of my proposal. A web 2.0 collaborative portal would sow the seeds of organizing by allowing people to:     

Share media that reflect the impact of climate around the world; Keep track of environmental data; Set fundraising targets for a list of initiatives; Discuss new ideas and bring the scientific community closer to the mainstream; Share a list of contacts ranging from government officials to media outlets;

7

However, even if we built the most user-friendly and complete website ever, it would accomplish very little as its reach would be limited to its community and a few others. To succeed, this coalition of net-environmentalists would have to move to the second step: organizing. That means going to the field and gathering people outside their own network by going door-to-door, making phone calls and reaching out to the local politicians and elements within the media to ensure the movement does NOT work isolated. As Al Giordano - an American journalist I learnt to admire - put it, “organizing involves building of relationships, teams, chains of command, and, day-by-day, clear goals to measure its progress and effectiveness”. Only then, everybody could reap the benefits of the initiative. The ability to quickly spread information and organize in an effective way would bring the movement to a higher level and closer to governments and companies, where people would have a louder voice. Having a louder voice would mean two things. First of all, that the creativity and boldness that runs on the veins of young people can be used to more concrete purposes. Perhaps one good example of that is Daniel Burd. In May 2008, Burd, a 16 year-old Canadian student, found a way to make plastic bags degrade at a much faster rate, thus getting closer to the solution of what to do with landfill sites. Basically, what he did was to isolate the microorganisms that are able to break down plastic and provide those microbes the ideal conditions for their growth, reproduction and work. On his best test, Burd managed to get 42% degradation in just 6 weeks. It looks so simple, right? And there are loads of promising technologies and innovative processes waiting on the wings, such as cellulosic and algae ethanol, micro wind-turbines, photovoltaic cells, biomethane and geoengineering. Secondly, it would mean that more transparency and ethics can be demanded by people. Governments and companies would have more pressure to listen to the people and work with them in order to get things done. I think it would be a win-win situation for everyone, as those entities would provide the framework to foster creativity and ideas from the new generations, the same generations that would later be at the helm of the world. In return, governments and companies would be able to work more effectively. I firmly believe this would be a responsible way of hedging the future. A simple diagram of this model is presented on picture 1.

8

Picture 1. Overview of the model presented

Final remarks I cannot help but think that Nature is able to provide us the tools we need to achieve a sustainable growth, a growth that does not hinder our future generations. We are now trying to harness energy and enzymes from the Nature to solve problems that affect our daily routine. Climate change cannot be ignored. It is bound to affect us one day or another and we must ensure we work together to transform this challenge into an opportunity to build a more prosperous world. I am a strong proponent of youth playing a bigger role in shaping the future and I believe that the model discussed above can achieve positive results. Using up-to-date web 2.0 technologies and organizing would bring a lot of people on board and by gaining more visibility we could team up with the government to generate fresh ideas and to ensure the path we are heading to is the right one. Fernando Pessoa, a famous Portuguese poet, once said that “everything is worth it, provided the soul is not small” and now is the time to rise to the occasion and remember we can do anything we really want to. Never forget how Obama got elected!

9

Bibliography [1] Biofuels: The new alchemy. (n.d.). Retrieved from TIME.com: http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1872110_1872133 _1872143-2,00.html [2] Climate Change: Meet Britain's new army of young eco warriors. (2008). Retrieved from Guardian.co.uk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/dec/14/environmental-activistsclimate-change [3] Climate myths: it's too cold where I live. (2007). Retrieved from NewScientist: http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11657 [4] Costa Rica bids to go carbon neutral. (2008). Retrieved from BBC News: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7508107.stm [5] Giordano, A. (2009). The Field. Retrieved from Narcosphere: http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/end-activism-and-renaissanceorganizing [6] 'Green fatigue' leads to fear of backlash over climate change. (2007). Retrieved from Guardian.co.uk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/dec/30/climatechange.carbonemi ssions [7] Heathrow expansion: How to protest. (2009). Retrieved from Guardian.co.uk: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/blog/2009/jan/13/heathrow-protestbaa?showallcomments=true [8] Interview with David Plouffe. (2009). Retrieved from Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpsrv/politics/documents/transcript_david_plouffe_011209.html?sid=ST2009011203 557&s_pos=list [9] Melding Obama’s Web to a YouTube Presidency. (2009). Retrieved from NYTimes.com: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/26/us/politics/26grassroots.html?_r=2&hp [10] Netroots on climate and energy. (2008). Retrieved from Grist: http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2008/7/19/151246/949 [11] Network externalities. (n.d.). Retrieved from Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect

10

[12] The World's Most Polluted Places. (2007). Retrieved from TIME.com: http://www.time.com/time/specials/2007/article/0,28804,1661031_1661028,00. html [13] To Protect Public Land, Eco-protesters get creative. (2009). Retrieved from TIME.com: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1874446,00.html [14] Watering the Obama grassroots post-election. (2009). Retrieved from Social Capital Blog: http://socialcapital.wordpress.com/2009/01/14/watering-theobama-grassroots-post-election/ [15] WCI student isolates microbe that lunches on plastic bags. (2008). Retrieved from The Record: http://news.therecord.com/article/354044 [16] What Will the Green Economy Look Like? (2008). Retrieved from AlterNet: http://www.alternet.org/environment/95963/what_will_the_green_economy_loo k_like/ [17] Why Grassroots Initiatives Can't Fix the Climate Change. (2008). Retrieved from Scientific American: http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=climate-fatigue [18] Youth for Climate Change. (2008). Retrieved from OneWorld South Asia: http://southasia.oneworld.net/resources/young-voices-on-climate-change

11