2 Energy Vision Pak Mz
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Energy Vision of Pakistan
By
Muhammad Ziauddin August 4, 2008
Content Situation analysis y Demand projections Resource position Supply projections Vision
Situation analysis Primaryy energy gy supply pp y – 60 mtoe Indigenous production – 42.663 mtoe Imports – 19.385 mtoe Consumption – 55 mtoe Losses – 5 mtoe (about 9%)
Situation analysis Power Demand is more than supply pp y Load shedding of 4500 MW Hampering Economic development Industrial sector is hard hit particularly process industry No improvement in sight
Primary Energy Supplies, 2006-07
48% 1% 7% 30%
13%
0%
1%
Oil Gas LPG Coal H d Hydro Nuclear Imported
Final Primary Energy Consumption, 2006-07
29% 41% 16% 12%
2%
Oil Gas LPG Coal Hydro
Fossil Fuels Consumption In Thermal Power Generation Generation, 2006-07 0% 43%
Oil Gas Coal
57%
Energy demand growth GDP Population Elasticity Other factors Energy demand grow parallel to GDP
Energy Demand Projections Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total MTOE
50.8
79.39
120.18
177.35
255.37
361.31
Oil
15.20
20.69
32.51
45.47
57.93
66.84
Natural Gas
25.45
38.99
52.98
77.85
114.84
162.58
Coal
3.30
7.16
14.45
24.77
38.28
68.65
Hydro
6.43
11.03
16.40
21.44
30.50
38.93
Renewable
0.00
0.84
1.60
3.00
5.58
9.20
Nuclear
0 42 0.42
0 69 0.69
2 23 2.23
4 81 4.81
8 24 8.24
15 11 15.11
Energy Mix Plan 2010
2004 49%
49% 26%
7% 13%
30%
14%
1%
9%
1% 1%
0%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro
Renewable
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
Nuclear
Continues…
Energy Mix Plan 2020
2030 44%
43% 26%
19%
19%
14%
11%
12%
4%
2%
3%
3%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro y
Renewable
Nuclear
Hydro y
Renewable
Nuclear
Resource Potential Hydro y
46,000 , Mw
Oil
3622 mtoe
Gas
6850mtoe
Coal
82695mtoe
Pakistan’s Hydropower Potential No
Station/Projects / j
Capacity ( (MW) )
1
Hydel Stations in Operation
6,459
2
Under Implementation
1,275
3
Feasibility Study Completed i. Run of River ii. Multipurpose
2,038 8,840
4
Feasibility Studies in hand
9,072
5
Projects for which feasibility studies are to be carried out Total
18,331 46,015
Power Generation Plan Nuclear
Hydel
Coal
Renewable
Oil
Gas
Total
Existing (2005)
400
6,460
160
180
6,400
5,940
19,540
Addition
-
-
-
-
2010
-
1,260
900
700
160
4,860
7,880
27,420
2015
900
7,570
3,000
800
300
7,550
20,120
47,540
2020
1 500 1,500
4 700 4,700
4 200 4,200
1 470 1,470
300
12 560 12,560
24 730 24,730
72 270 72,270
2,000
5,600
5,400
2,700
300
22,490
38,490
110,760
2030
4 000 4,000
7 070 7,070
6 250 6,250
3 850 3,850
300
30 360 30,360
51 830 51,830
162 590 162,590
Total
8,800
32,660
19,910
9,700
7,760
83,760
162,590
2025
Cumulative
Energy Gap Coverage Strategy 400 350 300
MTOE
250 Demand
200 Import-2
150
I Imported t d oil il Import-1
100 50 0 2005 Demand
2010 Import-4
2015 Import-3
2020 Import-2
Import-1
2025 Imported oil
2030 Supply
Energy Mix in Power Generation 1995
2004
0%
0%
29% 16%
34%
27%
1%
42%
48%
2%
1% 0%
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation 2020
2010 5%
17%
19%
32%
9% 25% 40%
39%
2%
6%
2%
4% Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation 2025
2030
18%
18%
20%
6%
5%
23%
8% 43%
6%
44%
5% 4%
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Energy Vision/Security Utilization of indigenous g resources for power p ggeneration Maximize generation through indigenous coal Increase nuclear power generation Developing regional grid Develop proper energy mix Reduce losses Increase I oilil andd gas drilling d illi activity ti it Import of LNG Continues…
Energy Vision/Security Import p through g p pipeline p Develop alternate energy resources Increase refining capacity up to 50% Emphasis on energy conservation Efficient use of energy
By
Muhammad Ziauddin August 4, 2008
Content Situation analysis y Demand projections Resource position Supply projections Vision
Situation analysis Primaryy energy gy supply pp y – 60 mtoe Indigenous production – 42.663 mtoe Imports – 19.385 mtoe Consumption – 55 mtoe Losses – 5 mtoe (about 9%)
Situation analysis Power Demand is more than supply pp y Load shedding of 4500 MW Hampering Economic development Industrial sector is hard hit particularly process industry No improvement in sight
Primary Energy Supplies, 2006-07
48% 1% 7% 30%
13%
0%
1%
Oil Gas LPG Coal H d Hydro Nuclear Imported
Final Primary Energy Consumption, 2006-07
29% 41% 16% 12%
2%
Oil Gas LPG Coal Hydro
Fossil Fuels Consumption In Thermal Power Generation Generation, 2006-07 0% 43%
Oil Gas Coal
57%
Energy demand growth GDP Population Elasticity Other factors Energy demand grow parallel to GDP
Energy Demand Projections Short Term
Medium Term
Long Term
2004
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Total MTOE
50.8
79.39
120.18
177.35
255.37
361.31
Oil
15.20
20.69
32.51
45.47
57.93
66.84
Natural Gas
25.45
38.99
52.98
77.85
114.84
162.58
Coal
3.30
7.16
14.45
24.77
38.28
68.65
Hydro
6.43
11.03
16.40
21.44
30.50
38.93
Renewable
0.00
0.84
1.60
3.00
5.58
9.20
Nuclear
0 42 0.42
0 69 0.69
2 23 2.23
4 81 4.81
8 24 8.24
15 11 15.11
Energy Mix Plan 2010
2004 49%
49% 26%
7% 13%
30%
14%
1%
9%
1% 1%
0%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro
Renewable
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewable
Nuclear
Continues…
Energy Mix Plan 2020
2030 44%
43% 26%
19%
19%
14%
11%
12%
4%
2%
3%
3%
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Hydro y
Renewable
Nuclear
Hydro y
Renewable
Nuclear
Resource Potential Hydro y
46,000 , Mw
Oil
3622 mtoe
Gas
6850mtoe
Coal
82695mtoe
Pakistan’s Hydropower Potential No
Station/Projects / j
Capacity ( (MW) )
1
Hydel Stations in Operation
6,459
2
Under Implementation
1,275
3
Feasibility Study Completed i. Run of River ii. Multipurpose
2,038 8,840
4
Feasibility Studies in hand
9,072
5
Projects for which feasibility studies are to be carried out Total
18,331 46,015
Power Generation Plan Nuclear
Hydel
Coal
Renewable
Oil
Gas
Total
Existing (2005)
400
6,460
160
180
6,400
5,940
19,540
Addition
-
-
-
-
2010
-
1,260
900
700
160
4,860
7,880
27,420
2015
900
7,570
3,000
800
300
7,550
20,120
47,540
2020
1 500 1,500
4 700 4,700
4 200 4,200
1 470 1,470
300
12 560 12,560
24 730 24,730
72 270 72,270
2,000
5,600
5,400
2,700
300
22,490
38,490
110,760
2030
4 000 4,000
7 070 7,070
6 250 6,250
3 850 3,850
300
30 360 30,360
51 830 51,830
162 590 162,590
Total
8,800
32,660
19,910
9,700
7,760
83,760
162,590
2025
Cumulative
Energy Gap Coverage Strategy 400 350 300
MTOE
250 Demand
200 Import-2
150
I Imported t d oil il Import-1
100 50 0 2005 Demand
2010 Import-4
2015 Import-3
2020 Import-2
Import-1
2025 Imported oil
2030 Supply
Energy Mix in Power Generation 1995
2004
0%
0%
29% 16%
34%
27%
1%
42%
48%
2%
1% 0%
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation 2020
2010 5%
17%
19%
32%
9% 25% 40%
39%
2%
6%
2%
4% Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Continues…
Energy Mix in Power Generation 2025
2030
18%
18%
20%
6%
5%
23%
8% 43%
6%
44%
5% 4%
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Coal
Energy Vision/Security Utilization of indigenous g resources for power p ggeneration Maximize generation through indigenous coal Increase nuclear power generation Developing regional grid Develop proper energy mix Reduce losses Increase I oilil andd gas drilling d illi activity ti it Import of LNG Continues…
Energy Vision/Security Import p through g p pipeline p Develop alternate energy resources Increase refining capacity up to 50% Emphasis on energy conservation Efficient use of energy
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