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Futures 44 (2012) 678–686

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The future of work and work-life balance 2025 Sally Khallash, Martin Kruse * Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies, Noerre Farimagsgade 65, DK-1364 Copenhagen, Denmark

A R T I C L E I N F O

A B S T R A C T

Article history: Available online 26 May 2012

This paper explores the concept of the future of work and identifies some of the challenges that Europe will increasingly face in regards to economic, social and demographic changes. We argue that workers will find themselves in an age of transition driven by new technological opportunities and the feminization of the labor force. The consequences of these changes will affect the organization of future work and the concept of the work-life balance. Special attention is given to the Scandinavian models and cases, as the welfare states of the north are often regarded as being on the forefront concerning the work-life balance. We will demonstrate how aging is affecting Denmark and purport that the Scandinavian model will face significant challenges. We describe the components of worklife balance and present alternative fictionalized scenarios for future work that highlight the interplay between macroeconomics and the work-life balance. ß 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. The research on the future of work When it comes to the future of work and work-life balance, futurists and social researchers tend to cluster in two main groups: Optimists like Nuala Beck and William Bridges predict change with positive consequences for the economy and the individual, and Pessimists like Jeremy Rifkin and Richard Barnet who criticize change. In the optimistic approach to future work and work-life balance, everybody lives in a high-tech world where old work structures disappear, allowing many to transform into mini-entrepreneurs and knowledge workers. The foundation for this massive transformation is the leap into the era of creativity and productivity through innovation, and employment growth will be in the knowledge-intensive and technology-based industries. This will change organizations and the concept of ‘work’ and ‘organization’; while Bridges foresees ‘‘dejobbed’’ organizations, Joseph Boyett anticipates a total erosion of barriers between managers and workers in a ‘boss-less’ organizational setup. The optimistic view is backed up by management literature with two dominant themes: (1) development of talent and human resources through high-performance work systems, and (2) growing worker participation in decision-making. Improved human resource management is assumed to make organizations more innovative, adaptable and flexible, and lifelong learning and talent development will become the central elements of productivity, innovation and competitiveness. The pessimists focus on the negative aspects of the technological revolution. In The End of Work, Rifkin argues that the age of information and technology has brought us closer to a workerless world. The pessimists argue for a global job crisis so profound and complex that any attempt to create and maintain jobs will just be scraping the surface of the problem. In the future, western workers will lose out in the competitive job market to workers from developing countries. Knowledge workers will experience that their educational advantages and values will lag behind compared to knowledge workers from the East and low-skilled workers will see their jobs being outsourced to low-wage countries.

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +45 33117176; fax: +45 33327766. E-mail address: [email protected] (M. Kruse). 0016-3287/$ – see front matter ß 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2012.04.007

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While the optimists see a bright and individualistic world where the successful people have prepared themselves for the dejobbed economy by becoming mini-entrepreneurs, the pessimists have a deterministic approach to future work because of the monstrous and dehumanizing technological development created to boost productivity despite the human costs. In the optimistic view, employees are able to transform, adapt and take advantage of the new opportunities: in the pessimistic, transformation and adaptation is futile, and the old winners might find themselves losers in the new economy. Unfortunately much of the presented research on the future of work is thin on facts and analysis and thus unnecessarily speculative in its claims. The two views on the future of work have a tendency to be overly normative, presenting ‘right’ and ‘wrong’ scenarios for future work. The reality is that the future is neither right nor wrong. There is just the future that will present new opportunities and challenges. Furthermore, the management proposals such as high-performance work systems and work-life balance schemes are not easily or commonly applied in organizations. Many employers still adhere to a Taylorist job design with little training, little involvement of employees in decision-making, and are not very familyfriendly. 2. Future challenges for Europe The future of the nature of work in Europe will depend on how Europe tackles the obstacles that lay ahead. Europe is kneedeep in public debt and structural unemployment is widespread and the needed reforms will not find support from the general public. Europe is aging, leaving fewer people to pay for social benefits and more people supported by the state, especially in the welfare states of the north (see Fig. 1). The future looks bleak, and amidst the dire prospects, people already feel stressed out – and with the looming prospects of longer working hours and greater work intensity without increasing wages – are crying out for better work-life balance. The EU’s goals for 2020 focus on three main objectives: sustainable growth, inclusive growth, and a transformation to a knowledge economy. The EU’s sustainable growth strategy aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20% compared to 1990 levels, increasing the share of renewable energy sources in final energy consumption to 20%, while increasing energy efficiency by 20%. This transformation of society into a green economy will cost resources; money the EU needs to use to finance pensions systems and the gridlocked labor legislation in many countries in order to fulfill the next goal of a competitive Europe that prospers through trade and innovation. Turning Europe green will create jobs in the long run, but the costs in the short term will be high. The EU faces intense pressure on its export markets, where the BRIC+11 countries are gaining market share. If Europe is to adhere to the 2020 targets, structures need to be uprooted and changed. Comparing competitiveness on an inter-contential scale is to compare apples to oranges. In his paper European growth over the coming decade, Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, argues that Europe was never in second position to the US in terms of productivity and GDP growth, but has chosen to invest the acquired wealth in more leisure time for the people of Europe. Europeans have shown a preference for more leisure time and longer maternity leaves for example, whereas the Americans seem to have preferred materialism and increases of wealth. Compensating for this difference, as Blanchard did in his study, Europeans are equally as productive as the Americans. The question for Europe in the years to come is how to maintain these benefits that most Europeans consider a hard-earned right, while at the same time addressing the problems that Europe faces. 3. The Scandinavian way 2010 was a special year in American politics. It was the year President Obama guaranteed millions of Americans access to medical insurance after decades of failed attempts by Democratic presidents, thereby moving the US closer to the European welfare system. At the same time, the US seems to be increasing its welfare services as the Scandinavian welfare states are disassembling their welfare models by electing right-leaning politicians to parliaments. For many years and in many categories, the Scandinavian countries have been hailed as best in class, managing to achieve economic growth and progressive social welfare programs at the same time. The Nordic countries’ welfare states have 80 60 40

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proven to be a lot more competitive and viable than critics had expected. They have been capable of regularly adjusting to the chaotic needs of modernization and overachieve in the face of challenges. The Nordic countries have positively stood out in a long list of international studies as reigning among the world’s richest and most competitive countries while averaging almost the lowest number of working hours in the world. This has defied neoliberal economic theory, and so Americans and the rest of Europe and now Asia are looking to Scandinavia for inspiration for improving conditions important to work-life balance. The answer to the mystery may lie with a concept related to work life balance, namely institutional competitiveness. 3.1. Institutional competitiveness Institutional competitiveness is a concept that implies that companies gain more than they lose from the strong political and economic institutions. A closely related concept is flexicurity, which is a portmanteau of flexibility and security. It’s a word that describes the fact that the Danish labor market is flexible and provides security at the same time. The flexibility comes from employers who are relatively unimpeded in relation to hiring and firing employees enabling them to adjust staff quickly and as needed. Security provided by the state supports the employee physically and mentally in case of being laid-off through income transfers, training and network support in finding a new job or creating one. While institutional competitiveness is on the forefront of attention, it is important to understand that it is less than the full story. Significant differences exist among the Scandinavian labor markets, and special conditions apply for Denmark and Norway. 3.2. Oil nations Since 2000, the share of exports in Norway deriving from oil has been between 50% and 60%. In 2008, 37% of state finances came from oil production. While many are aware of Norway’s special position in Scandinavia as a resource-rich country, few see Denmark as a resource rich country as well. The oil wealth provides the backbone for the Danish welfare state. In fact, adjusting for energy, Denmark’s account balance would in the last 10 years be about 20% lower, and in some years even negative. Now, the oil and gas is possibly running out. There is a lot riding on the amount of gas in the new ‘Svane’ gas field, but the problems are evident. According to the welfare commission, today’s average Dane is a net expense, so radical adjustments need to be made if the Danish welfare state as we know it is to survive in future. This is in no small part due to the problem of aging. 3.3. The aging population The aging baby-boom generation has pushed retirement and pensions onto the public agenda. In Denmark, despite rising life expectancies and more years of satisfactory health, the effective retirement age has dropped, not least because of earlyretirement programs and a lowering of the retirement age. In Denmark in 1987, a 67 year-old retiring man could on average expect to live about 10 more years. Today, those 10 years of non-productivity have turned into more than 15 years because of early-retirement programs and longevity. Creating a flexible system and rolling back the pension system to the rules in force in 1987, where a man had 10 years left to live on pension, would mean that a Danish man in 2020 should retire at the age of 72. He would then contribute with 7 more years to society, then what would otherwise be the case, if rules where left unchanged (see Fig. 2). Denmark is not alone in its aging problem. In 1950 the world populations’ median age was 24 years old. In 2005 it had risen to 27.9 years and in 2050 it is expected to be 38.4 years. However significant diversity exists; in 2050 the median age in Japan is expected to be 52 years, 47 years for Europeans and 42 years for Americans. 3.4. The Scandinavian welfare state and future cohesion This change calls for significant reform in Europe and in the world at large. In Scandinavia, this most certainly will test the relationship between the individual and the state. In the minds of many French people, the Scandinavian countries have lived 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

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Fig. 2. Years left to live on pension based on 60 year old male life expectancy.

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out the true meaning of the call for egalite, fraternite and liberte; for others, like right-wingers in the US, the Scandinavian countries are considered semi-communistic social constructions. Whichever way you look at it, one thing is true: at the backbone of the welfare state lays the concept of cohesion, where the individual pays for benefits through taxes and is secured throughout life from many of the problems life springs upon us as individuals. In the future, the strength of the bonds between the individual and the state will be tested. How will cohesiveness fare in the light of higher taxation, when fewer workers will have to finance the generous welfare state and increasingly elderly population demographic? According to the welfare commission’s baseline projections, compared to the current level, taxes need to rise with 9 percentage points between 2011 and 2040. This would constitute a marginal tax rate of 68% in 2040. No matter how egalitarian one may be, that is a big share of personal income. This could prove to be a deal-breaker for the principle of solidarity, which is crucial for upholding the Scandinavian welfare state. The most likely scenario would therefore be a decrease in public services in the years to come and ongoing measures to improve efficiency. 3.5. Solutions are many, but troublesome In Denmark, pensions, unemployment benefits, and public transfers make up some 47% of public spending. Removing early retirement options and raising the age of retirement and shortening the period for unemployment benefits could be part of the solution, but tampering with it is a sure way for politicians to become unpopular; something former prime minister Poul Nyrup Rasmussen was subject to. Increasing production and productivity generally in the economy could be done through making the region attractive for highly skilled foreign workers or by encouraging lifelong learning, ongoing education, earlier study start and shorter study time. Another way would be to the increase incentives to work more and seek further education by lowering the marginal tax rate; yet this would redefine the Scandinavian welfare state as we know it. A more efficient public sector is indeed a way to go, if this can be achieved without reducing the quality of services provided for the citizens; otherwise this would only add to the problem if citizens demand higher service standards than the public can provide. In such a case, Scandinavians will either vote for lower taxes and more privatization (accepting greater social polarization), or they could just leave the country and go elsewhere. Even a mild brain drain could become a serious problem and set the stage for a complete erosion of the welfare state as we know it. The futures of work and work-life balance are intrinsically intertwined as to how the solution of this problem fares in the future. For the welfare states, the list of solutions is long, but troublesome. This is not to say that Europe cannot learn from Scandinavia in order to create better work-life balance, but emulating Scandinavian labor market politics is in no way a safeguard for the problems Europe faces in the future. 4. Workers in transition In order to analyze the future of work and work-life balance it is necessary to examine the changing labor force demographics and the evolution of workers in the future. There is a growing need to adopt a more dynamic view of the labor force. ‘Transition’ is a commonly used concept to describe workers in the labor market. Labor mobility is occurring now more than ever, causing disruptions for workers of all ages who are making transitions in an out of jobs; the transition from school to work is more diverse and prolonged; and transitions due to ‘early retirement’, flexible jobs or layoffs are creating more complexity. Furthermore, with rising educational levels, jobs have to become more knowledge-intensive and skilled to meet workers’ needs for challenge and self-development through their worklife. In Europe, the labor force is being reshaped by three main demographic trends: aging of the huge baby-boom generation; the feminization of the workforce; and increasing cultural diversity as more immigrants enter the labor force. Next we focus on women in the labor market. 4.1. Feminization of the labor force In many countries in Europe, the share of women in the labor force is still relatively low, which creates opportunities to increase production output by getting more woman into the labor force. The Nordic countries are only surpassed by Estonia as to the female share of the labor force. Unlike the rest of Europe, the Scandinavian countries have to a great extent exhausted the possibility of creating increased production output from introducing more woman in the labor force. Women’s participation in the workforce has increased gradually over the past decades. However, this feminization of the workforce is taking place alongside a decline in real incomes and growing work intensity, creating work-family conflicts. Even though employers are addressing work-family conflicts, in many cases women are still forced to choose between career paths or family responsibilities. However, the number of highly educated women is increasing, which means that the share of highly skilled women in the European labor force will rise. As more and more women are better educated, they could surpass men in average salary in some countries, notably in equality-focused Scandinavia, forcing men into the caretaker role. From an economic perspective, it simply makes more sense when children are sick that the person with the lowest income stays at home. In the Scandinavian countries, steps are in fact being taken to align the rules so men and women are considered equal providers of care. Men are encouraged to take paternity leave, and in Norway, regulation requires that 40% of the board of

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directors in listed companies to be woman. What are needed throughout Europe are better daycare facilities and a general framework that allow women to take better advantage of being a part of the labor force. However, in Scandinavia, where these frameworks to a great extent exist, new problems are arising with better-educated women. Jobs that are thought to support the coherence of the welfare states are traditionally jobs for women: teachers, kindergarten teachers, nurses, personal care givers, etc. These jobs will be subject to a pull from several sides as women get higher education and leave traditional ‘women jobs’. The very fabric that underlies the welfare state seems to be disappearing. What can fill the void? Traditionally, jobs like teachers, day-care providers, nurses, and personal care givers are too complex to automate. So the answer lies with more foreign workers or in a scenario where less-educated men take over traditional female jobs – accelerating cultural changes and gender roles. A solution also lies with creating greater flexibility that profits female workers and at the same time improves productivity and revenue. 5. What is work-life balance? ‘‘There’s no such thing as work-life balance. There are work-life choices, and you make them, and they have consequences’’, stated by Jack Welsh, former General Electrics CEO and all-round business guru. According to Welsh worklife balance is a ficticous concept if you want to be at the top of your game. But what is work-life balance, and why has it grown so much in importance over the past decades? Essentially, the term work-life balance is a term open to considerable subjective interpretation, since what constitutes balance is subject to considerable cultural variation as defined by each individual or collectively by a couple in a relationship. The definition we use in this paper is that work-life balance articulates the desire of all individuals – not just those with family responsibilities – to attain a balance between their paid work and their life outside work, from childcare and housework to leisure and self-development. Work-life balance has traditionally had a relatively narrow focus on health, stress-related burnout, work hours, maternity rights, and formal employment. Given the demographic and societal developments described previously, it is recognized that work and work-life balance is no longer limited to such a narrow focus. Rather, work is an instrumental element and is a means to support a way of life and to create optimal conditions for one’s family and/or one self. Hence, work-life balance is about managing external pressure from a competitive work environment with leisure and/or family. Work, however, also constitutes a socio-psychological element that creates respect and personal challenges. Thus, the work-life balance is also about managing internal pressure from one’s own expectations and setting realistic goals, which do not inflict on e.g. family responsibility. In other words, work-life balance is not just defined by the pressure put on the individual from employees, but increasingly also pressure exerted by the worker’s own level of motivation – which only indirectly can be said to derive from the external pressure created by a society, which fosters a performance culture. The concept of work-life balance has also been widened to include broader caring responsibilities, the need for flexible working hours, pursuit of intellectual interests (lifelong learning) and other preferences people have about the time they want to devote to their work and how they want to do it, especially since these preferences vary over the course of an individual’s life. Hence, work-life balance is segmented more and more from a lifetime stage perspective. 5.1. The historical balance between job and family Work-life balance is based on the assumption of the separation of work and private life, and that ‘balance’ is achieved when there is equal division between the two. The distinction of work and life is a recent construction and different from the integrated work and life common until the beginning of the 20th century, where families all worked together. The distinction came with the industrial age and development of factories where workers needed to be in a physical place for certain times. But today we are on the verge of radical changes where traditional corporate world is breaking down and giving way to new types of organizations – like Facebook and Mozilla – organized in radically different ways. These organizations have flat structures and open communication to promote creativity and innovation. They focus on interdependence, building networks, and encouraging relations between workers, customers, and vendors. And as a result, they are breaking down barriers and once again integrating work and life. This is driven forward by technology: people are able to work when at home, outdoors or indoors, or in a different part of the world. They are not bound to a specific work schedule but can work whenever they choose to. 6. Work-life balance in the future Mr. Welsh’ comment on work-life balance does not go hand in hand with the general view that work-life balance brings benefits to both employers and individuals. Employers gain a quantitative and qualitative improvement in the supply of available labor because work-life balance affects workers’ productivity and keeps them in the labor market (here for instance elderly and women), and individuals adapt to balance the various demands made upon them, resulting in a qualitative improvement to their lives. A survey of 3000 Graduates from China, the UK, and the US showed that 90% of US respondents and 87% of Chinese respondents said they would actively seek out employers whose corporate social responsibility behavior

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reflected their own, supporting the claim that work-life balance, considered in the context of CSR, indeed could give companies a competitive advantage with regards to recruitment. It is apparent that in his own generation, Welch’s argument had its obvious logic: Time is a scarce resource, and the more time one devotes to work and career, the less time is available for leisure, family and self-development. But in the future, technology and new organizational forms could change the playing field. 6.1. The space–time compression hypothesis During the last decades, a rapidly growing part of the work force has been telecommuting remotely from the central workplace. We are partly returning to the pre-industrial mode of working where you live. Aside from working in factories and other physically intensive jobs, the location of work will become increasingly less important. Furthermore, the number of companies interested in decentralization will grow as a result of telecommuting requests – and because it saves money. As technology improves, we get better opportunities to involve employees in virtual meetings and conference calls. In addition, employers can increase worker morale by allowing them to spend more time at home than at the office. This can eliminate a great deal of overhead cost by letting employees ‘rent’ offices or cubicles when they must be present. This development could lead to a healthier work-life balance: it saves commuting time, allows time to take care of personal issues or errands, and overall provides more flexibility. There will always be jobs that require a physical presence. But in the future, less and less work will require physical attendance, and what remains can be done with greater flexibility and personalization than is the case today. As this new view of work wins favor in the younger generations, notions such as commitment, accomplishment and fun will temper the traditional understanding of balance and separation of work and life. 6.2. New types of organizations Changes to the traditional understanding of work and work-life balance have to do with technological development. One of the consequences of the technological development is more decentralized organizations and dissolution of differences between employers and employees. Technological and economic forces are creating a space for new organizations that are self-organized, self-managed, peer-to-peer, participatory, and people-centered. We will see more decentralized organization, which means more flexible organizations and work where people participate in making the decisions important to them. This is already true in the case of AES Corporation, one of the world’s largest electric power producers, where lower-level employees are included in making critical multimillion-dollar decisions essential for the future success of the company. However, decentralization is more than loose hierarchies and flat organizations. It is not only power delegated to the levels below; the power could just as well originate from below in organizations resembling miniature democracies. 7. Scenarios If we were to look at the future with an optimist’s eyes, to be successful in the future would require becoming skilled mini-entrepreneurs with the ability to create sustainable work-life balance for ourselves independent from the organization or company we work in. In opposition, pessimists will argue that work-life balance will see its end in a dehumanized and rough future economy where the object is higher productivity and profit rather than worker well-being and balance. With a basis in these two perspectives, we have sketched the following two scenarios, written from a future perspective: #1. Change. #2. Too little, too late. 7.1. Scenario #1: Change The global financial meltdown that started in 2007 fundamentally impacted public opinion for the rest of the decade. Debt crises and frequent business-cycle recessions punctured the brief periods of weak growth and a return to optimism in Western countries for much of the early 2010s. Long periods of high unemployment and bankruptcies combined with austerity plans made the public value economic growth and realize the need for change in Europe, thus creating a policy window in which policies to increase competitiveness slowly have been implemented. This has created a platform for a newly competitive EU, which still suffers from the high costs of transforming society into an actual knowledge society. Policies have largely been focused on creating more flexibility and mobility in the workforce, uprooting outdated practices and changing rules that where in force to reduce competitiveness and only seemingly to create security for the workforce; as an example, lifelong employment is a thing of the past throughout Europe. The changes have created better institutional competitiveness while keeping true to the basic social values that seem to be governing Europe. This transformation has created a Europe that is able to create high value products, profiting from globalization rather then suffering from it. The foreseen challenges of globalization highly exaggerated the threat from the BRIC+11 and underestimated the value of the new economies in the global economy and for European high-value exports and tourist

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industry. Increasingly, automation has been able to level out the competitive advantage of the BRIC+11. This has meant that GDP growth, after significant adjustment in the beginning of the decade, has been favorable and that the European economy is experiencing a boom. More women have joined the EU labor force, and this has strengthened the need for programs aimed at supporting worklife balance. Increasingly, work-life balance is seen as a societal and institutional problem, not as an individual problem. Steps are being taken in order to create a society with better conditions for working women. Increasingly, society tries to compensate women for the differences in salaries by granting seniority when woman take maternity leave. This is supported through taxation of highly paid workers, who do not take parental leave; i.e., typically men. This works in two ways: it motivates couples to have more children, and it compensates woman for having to take leave from their jobs. The economic growth has been pushed forward by big changes in both the workforce and in how work is organized. Highly competitive companies have focused on creating the optimal conditions for the individual employee. Coaches, flexible hours, paid vacations, etc. abound. The employee is considered a valuable asset and is treated more like an elite athlete than a simple, easily replaceable worker. However, this has not solved the work-life balance problem; quite the contrary. The exaggerated focus on human resource and talent development has created a situation where companies have pressed so hard to create the proper and optimal conditions for their employees’ development that the employees now experience burnout caused by existential stress. This is caused not by external pressure from employees, but by the discrepancy between their values and the life they lead. It is one thing to experience work-life imbalance because of being forced to work in order to support your family; it is an entirely different thing to choose your work over your family and those you love, even though your concept of the ‘‘good life’’ is closely linked to family values. Yet for the individualized people of ‘‘the world is at your feet’’ generation, which has been able to pick and choose between jobs due to shortage of young and highly skilled employees, this development is very much prevalent, and the choice have been entirely their own. At work, the employee is rewarded, gets praised, feels valued, and is among good friends, while at home, everyday problems abound. So faced with the choice, work is too often preferred over loved ones. The high divorce rate tells the story. However, companies are increasingly acknowledging that work-life balance does not stop at the workplace. Thus, there are efforts being done to take over domestic chores from their most valued employees, offering a complete household job plan as part of the salary. The coaches are not just working on how to improve performance in job-related areas, but also coach on family matters and monitor work schedules in order to anticipate stress periods and make sure employees get time to recuperate after a peak period at work. Acknowledging that it is not enough for people to learn to say ‘no’ to projects, colleagues and management, but that employees first and foremost need to say ‘no’ to themselves. HR is very much about the company reducing workload for the individual in order for the individual to have a steady productivity, acknowledging that peak overload simply leads to long recuperation time and thus productivity loss in the long run. Significant polarization exists as to how much work gets to fill in each individual’s life. Some people have chosen a more simple lifestyle, with a focus on family values and, when possible, reducing working hours in order to have more time with their children and spouses. These people generally have highly valued and highly priced specialist competencies that enable them to work less, yet still earn enough to live a comfortable life, or – since there is no need to be actually physically present at the company – they choose to live in the countryside, where housing prices are lower, and scale down on material needs. 7.2. Scenario #2: Too little, too late The EU has faced a number of challenges towards 2025. Global economic and political power structures have been subject to change as non-OECD countries have become global powers. The post-World War II system could no longer meet 21st century challenges. Reform was necessary to ensure global environmental and economic sustainability while making certain that institutions reflect global economic, financial, and political realities. Global challenges are numerous, ranging from climate change and resource management to the aging global population and the rapid growth of urban areas in middle and low-income countries. The supply of technological solutions is larger than ever before. Digital solutions are implemented on a global scale and have given rise to new ways of working together, but have also wiped out many types of jobs, creating an increased need for job transformation skills. To a great extent, the success of the Western middle-class throughout the 20th century has been a result of mass education, which made the Western countries’ populations the best educated in the world. Unfortunately, in 2025 this does not appear to be the case. The world’s human capital and talent is more equally distributed. This is because of educational and motivational stagnation in the Western countries and an expanded and improved Asian educational system. In 2007, the number of 25–34 year-olds with a higher education in the BRIC+11 countries was already higher then in many European countries. The Asian middle class in 2025 is largely comparable to the Western middle class – also when it comes to education. I 2025, Western knowledge workers experience that their educational advantages and values are lagging compared to the East. While the first phase of global outsourcing primarily focused on outsourcing production and blue-collar jobs to lowincome countries and getting closer to new markets, the second phase focuses on primarily white-collar workers; especially R&D and specific service functions. Education is no longer a safeguard against losing your job. Aided by technology, specialist doctors are increasingly operating from afar on simple procedures, and desk-job analysts, architects and other service specialists can just as well work from Mumbai as in London. The BRIC+11’s move into the global knowledge economy has created a hitherto unseen explosion of knowledge labor in the world market, which has been aided by rules of transparency and limited the barriers to entry into the virtual European job market.

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The call for innovation is clearer than ever, but the cost of transformation is high and has stressed overall growth in Europe. The challenges Europe has faced in adapting to the new world realities have been many, and the necessary reforms have been hard to pass. Global growth is driven by the developing countries. Multinational companies continue to expand their workforces in developing countries instead of increasing export-oriented service sector growth in Western countries. At the same time, because of high wages, the labor force in Western countries is not competitive enough to provide services to the billions of new consumers in the developing countries. This has increased polarization among workers that thrive in the new world and the ones that don’t. The latter increasingly find jobs within food services and care industries. The Scandinavian countries have been hit hard. The welfare systems are generally very competitive in periods of prosperity, however it’s a very expensive system to uphold in times of low growth. The EU, the mean average number of working hours per year was around 1750 h in 2006, some 600 working hours behind Hong Kong and India. The push for higher productivity meant that most of the peoples of Europe have had to increase their working hours and less vacation. Furthermore, reforms for longer maternity leave has been set on hold. This has not happened without significant protests, and politicians have generally put these changes forth in the midst of crisis rather than as anticipatory measurements to avoid crisis. Significant dissatisfaction with politicians has been the result. Politicians are blamed for not acting faster, and at the same time blamed for the changes they are making. Lack of stable political leadership in various European countries has exacerbated the problem. Work-life balance has naturally been affected. People are worried about losing their jobs and work harder and for longer hours. In some European countries, the public sectors are – instead of increasing efficiency – expanding the number of employees in order to accommodate the greater share of unemployed. In other countries, measures to increase efficiency are eroding the quality of service and slowly eating away at institutional competitiveness. This has an unfortunate and direct effect on both work-life balance and productivity. In a time when people are generally happy simply to have a job, work-life balance is not receiving much focus. Instead of being a common factor in work-life, the concept of ‘balance’ has decreased into a luxury commodity that privileged workers with time, job security and resources are able to enjoy. In times of economic change and employment insecurity, work-life balance is an illusion, even though problems concerning work-life balance are more acute than ever. However, a neo-eighties mentality has reappeared, focusing on personal efficiency and materialism. The concept of the ‘good’ life is more about securing the future than existential questions appearing in an affluent society focusing on purpose and meaning. 8. Final comments The two scenarios have their starting points in two radically different frames for the future economy and labor market. Thus, they result in two extremely divergent scenarios for attaining a work-life balance in the Scandinavian and European future context. In the first scenario, work-life balance is an essential cornerstone in the lives of employees and forms a close tie between employees and employers. In the second scenario, work-life balance is not important for the majority of employees struggling to hold on to their jobs and hence is only available to the most privileged workers. The future of work-life balance could take many other forms depending on how the future economical, societal, and political set-up evolves. The two depictured scenarios are partly based upon an optimistic and a pessimistic view on the future of work, and partly on the future challenges and transformations that Scandinavia and Europe will face, such as aging, economic stagnation, tougher global competition, and new forms of organizations tempering the traditional notion of work and work-life balance. Given the fact that the future of work and work-life balance is uncertain and may possibly evolve in a variety of forms and ways, the main purpose of this paper is not to present ‘hard fact’ scenarios for the future. The future is per definition uncertain, hence the future of work-life balance is uncertain. Instead, the idea is to conceptualize the uncertain grounds which the concept of work-life balance rests on: First, that work-life balance is not necessary in itself a good thing, but in fact can cause more stress and early burnout, when e.g. the notion becomes too closely linked to talent development. Second, and in spite of popular belief in Scandinavia and other parts of Europe that work-life balance is not ‘here for good’, but is subject to change – and that the privileges may even be rolled back if the conditions are harsh enough. Further reading [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

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