01618-2007 Oras

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Government of Afghanistan Ministry of Counter Narcotics

Vienna International Centre, P.O. Box 500, A-1400 Vienna, Austria Tel: (+43 1) 26060-0, Fax: (+43 1) 26060-5866, www.unodc.org

Afghanistan

February 2007

Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Abbreviations ANP CPEF GPS ICMP MCN ORAS RAS UNODC

Afghan National Police Central Poppy Eradication Force Global Positioning System Illicit Crop Monitoring Programme (UNODC) Ministry of Counter-Narcotics Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey Research and Analysis Section (UNODC) United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime

Acknowledgements The following organizations and individuals contributed to the implementation of the 2007 Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey in Afghanistan and to the preparation of this report: Ministry of Counter-Narcotics: Eng Ibrahim Azhar (Director, Survey and Monitoring Section), Mir Abdullah (Deputy Director, Survey and Monitoring Section), Khiali Jan (Survey Coordinator for the central region), Abdul Mateen (Survey Coordinator for Nangarhar province), Abdul Latif Ehsan (Survey Coordinator for Hirat province), Fida Mohammad (Survey Coordinator for Balkh province), Mohammed Ishaq Anderabi (Survey Coordinator for Badakhshan province), Ahmad Qais Aamir (Database Expert), Arzo Omid (Data Clerk), Mohammad Khyber Wardak (Data Clerk), Mohammad Ajmal (Data Clerk). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Kabul) Christina Oguz (Country Representative), Hakan Demirbüken (Regional Illicit Crop Monitoring Expert for South-West Asia and Survey Project Manager, RAS/ICMP), Shirish Ravan (Remote Sensing and GIS Expert, RAS/ICMP), Nazir Ahmad Shah (National Project Coordinator), Ziauddin Zaki (Data Analyst), Abdul Mannan Ahmadzai (Survey Assistant), Fazal Mohammad Fazli (Coordinator for Kandahar province), Mohammad Alam Ghalib (Coordinator for Nangarhar province), Altaf Hussain Joya (Coordinator for Hirat province), Mohammed Alem Yaqubi (Coordinator for Badakhshan province), Lutfi Rahman Lutfi (Coordinator for Balkh province), Abdul Basir Basiret (Survey Coordinator for Nangarhar province), Abdul Jalil (Survey Coordinator for Balkh province), Abdul Qadir Palwal (Survey Coordinator for Kandahar province), Fawad Alahi (Survey Coordinator for Hirat province), Mohammad Rafi (Survey Coordinator for Badakhshan province), Rahimullah Omar (Survey Coordinator for the central region), Sayed Ahmad (Regional Survey Assistant for Kandahar province), Abdul Rahim Marikh (Regional Survey Assistant for Nangarhar province). United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (Vienna) Anja Korenblik (Programme Manager, RAS/ICMP), Thibault le Pichon (Chief, RAS), Martin Raithelhuber (Programme Officer, RAS/ICMP). The Survey would not have been possible without the dedicated work of the field surveyors. The UNODC Illicit Crop Monitoring activities in Afghanistan were made possible by financial contributions from the Governments of the United Kingdom, Finland and the United States of America.

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Table of Contents 1.

FINDINGS............................................................................................................................... 6 1.1. 1.2. 1.3. 1.4. 1.5. 1.6. 1.7. 1.8. 1.9. 1.10.

2.

GENERAL FINDINGS................................................................................................... 6 REASONS FOR OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION....................................................... 8 CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION................................. 9 FAMILIES INVOLVED IN OPIUM CULTIVATION.................................................. 9 EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE......................................................................................... 10 FIELD SECURITY ....................................................................................................... 13 REASONS FOR NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM POPPY..................................... 13 ERADICATION............................................................................................................ 14 PRICES ......................................................................................................................... 15 CANNABIS CULTIVATION ...................................................................................... 16

FINDINGS BY PROVINCE ................................................................................................ 26 NORTH-EASTERN REGION ................................................................................................... 26 BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE .................................................................................................. 26 TAKHAR PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 27 EASTERN REGION .................................................................................................................. 28 NANGARHAR PROVINCE..................................................................................................... 28 KUNAR PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 29 NURISTAN PROVINCE ......................................................................................................... 30 NORTHERN REGION .............................................................................................................. 31 BAGHLAN PROVINCE .......................................................................................................... 31 BAMYAN PROVINCE ............................................................................................................ 31 BALKH PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 32 FARYAB PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 33 KUNDUZ PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 33 JAWZJAN PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 34 SAMANGAN PROVINCE ....................................................................................................... 34 SARI PUL PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 35 CENTRAL REGION.................................................................................................................. 36 GHAZNI PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 36 KHOST PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 36 LOGAR PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 37 PAKTIKA PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 37 PAKTYA PROVINCE.............................................................................................................. 38 PARWAN PROVINCE ............................................................................................................ 38 KAPISA PROVINCE............................................................................................................... 39 WARDAK PROVINCE............................................................................................................ 39 SOUTHERN REGION ............................................................................................................... 40 KANDAHAR PROVINCE ....................................................................................................... 40 HILMAND PROVINCE .......................................................................................................... 40 URUZGAN PROVINCE.......................................................................................................... 41 ZABUL PROVINCE................................................................................................................ 42 WESTERN REGION ................................................................................................................. 43 HIRAT PROVINCE................................................................................................................. 43 FARAH PROVINCE ............................................................................................................... 43 NIMROZ PROVINCE ............................................................................................................. 44 GHOR PROVINCE ................................................................................................................. 44 BADGHIS PROVINCE ........................................................................................................... 45

3.

METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................................... 46

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Maps Map 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2007 (by province) ..........................18 Map 2: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2007 (by district) .............................19 Map 3: Calendar of opium poppy planting in 2007...........................................................20 Map 4: Expected opium poppy flowering time in 2007.....................................................21 Map 5: Expected opium poppy harvest time in 2007 .......................................................22 Map 6: Dry opium prices (USD) .......................................................................................23 Map 7: Sampling frame and selected villages..................................................................24 Map 8: Security situation in surveyed villages..................................................................25

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

PREFACE In most of Afghanistan opium poppy planting has been completed. While the seedlings for the 2007 harvest have just started to grow, UNODC has assessed the likely cultivation trends. This Winter Survey suggests that opium cultivation in Afghanistan in 2007 may not be lower than the record harvest of 165,000 hectares in 2006, although trends may vary among provinces. Significant decreases are expected in the North. This welcome news is the result of several initiatives aimed at providing farmers and local leaders with incentives to switch to licit livelihoods. The situation is worse in Afghanistan’s richly fertile yet highly unstable southern provinces. Bear in mind that this region accounted for more than 50 per cent of all opium cultivated in Afghanistan last year. This Survey looks at reasons why farmers decide to grow opium, or not. Evidence shows that villages that have received assistance are less likely to grow opium. Since this not a new finding, it would be desirable to build on this evidence by making Afghanistan the best example of how poppy cultivation can be countered by greater development assistance. There is some good news on this front. A Good Performance Fund was recently established to reward provinces demonstrating significant progress towards becoming opium free. The goal for 2007 is to double the number of opium-free provinces from six to twelve. That will create an opium-free belt across the middle of the country so as to concentrate later efforts to combat crime and insurgency in the South. The results also show clear correlations between insurgency and illicit drug-related activities. While this is not new, Afghanistan seems to be the most obvious case in the world of how drug cultivation, refining and trafficking fund political violence, and vice versa. Using the results of this assessment, district and provincial authorities are now alerted about opium cultivation trends in their jurisdiction. This Survey helps authorities put names and places together in order to improve transparency and accountability. The government and other stakeholders can now better target eradication efforts as well as reward areas that are opium free. Over time this will contribute to winning back Afghanistan from the drug lords, province by province. While opium attracts most attention, this report raises a new and disturbing trend: a significant increase in cannabis cultivation. The last thing we need is for Afghanistan to switch from one drug to another or – worse – to become a world leader in cannabis as well as opium production.

Antonio Maria Costa Executive Director UNODC

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

1. FINDINGS 1.1.

GENERAL FINDINGS

Opium poppy cultivation trends The Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey (ORAS) forecasts the following cultivation trends in 2007: x An increase in cultivation in 15 provinces, mainly in the South, East and West; x A decrease in cultivation in seven provinces, mainly in the North and North-East; x No change in six provinces, mainly in the North and North-East; x No poppy cultivation in six provinces, mainly in the central region. Overall, opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan is likely to increase in 2007. However, effective countrywide eradication may alter this trend. Table 1: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends in 2007

Cultivation trend in 2007

Increase (15 provinces)

Decrease (7 provinces)

No change (6 provinces)

Opium poppy-free (6 provinces)

Region

No. of provinces

Provinces

South

6

West East Central

3 3 3

Uruzgan, Zabul, Hilmand, Kandahar, Day Kundi Nimroz, Hirat, Badghis Nangarhar, Kunar Laghman Kabul, Kapisa, Khost, Ghazni

West

1

Ghor

North

5

Balkh, Saripul, Samangan Bamyan, Jawzan

North-East

1

Badakhshan

West

1

Farah

North

2

Faryab, Baghlan

North-East

2

Takhar, Kunduz

East

1

Nuristan

Central

6

Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak, Logar, Paktya, Paktika

In 2006, opium poppy cultivation increased in 13 provinces, decreased in eight provinces and remained at the same level in seven provinces; six provinces were found to be opium poppy-free (Annual Opium Survey 2006 Report, UNODC). The 2006 ORAS pointed to an increase in cultivation, which was confirmed by survey results reported in August 2006. A total area of 165,000 hectares was under opium poppy cultivation in 2006, which represents an increase of 59 per cent as compared to 2005. That increase was chiefly attributable to large-scale poppy cultivation in the South, particularly in the Hilmand province. A decrease in cultivation was observed in the northern provinces in 2006. The 2007 ORAS indicates a decrease in poppy cultivation in the North and North-East, but an increase in the main opium poppy-growing areas of the southern provinces, which may result in an overall increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2007. However, these trends may be affected by the eradication campaign. While the Government and international stakeholders remain committed to eradication, few

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

eradication activities had been reported in the provinces of Nimroz, Farah, Nangarhar, Laghman and Badakhshan by mid-January 2007 (only 653 ha of crops had been eradicated). To date, no eradication activities have been implemented in the northern and southern provinces. The 2007 ORAS highlights the following key cultivation trends as compared to 2006: x A sharp increase in cultivation in the provinces of Nangarhar, Kunar and Uruzgan; x A sharp decrease in the northern provinces (Balkh, Samangan, Saripul) and in Ghor; x An increase in the Hilmand and Kandahar provinces; x Six provinces continue to be poppy-free.

Alfalfa in Nangarhar province

Wheat in Nangarhar province

Opium poppy in Nangarhar province

Vegetables in Nangarhar province

In Hilmand and Zabul, 100 per cent of respondents in surveyed villages believed that poppy would be cultivated in those villages. A significantly high proportion of respondents in Kandahar (93 per cent), Uruzgan (88 per cent), Farah (86 per cent), Badakhshan (67 per cent) and Nangarhar (67 per cent) indicated likewise. While Ghazni province was poppy-free in 2006, the ORAS forecasts that 13 per cent of surveyed villages in the province will cultivate poppy in 2007. Additional opium poppy crops could be sown in upland areas of the northern and central provinces before mid-March, particularly in rain-fed areas, potentially leading to a further increase in opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan. In 2007, rainfall and water availability

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

are expected to be extremely good throughout Afghanistan, which may result in good opium poppy yields. Table 2: Cultivation levels from 2004 to 2006 and expected trends in 2007 PROVINCE

Kabul Khost Logar Paktya Panjshir Parwan Wardak Ghazni Paktika Central Region Kapisa Kunar Laghman Nangarhar Nuristan Eastern Region Badakhshan Takhar North Eastern Region Badghis Baghlan Balkh Bamyan Faryab Jawzjan Kunduz Samangan Sari Pul Northern Region Hilmand Kandahar Uruzgan Zabul Day kundi Southern Region Farah Ghor Hirat Nimroz Western Region Total (rounded)

1.2.

Cultivation Cultivation Cultivation Change 2005- Change 2005- 2007 Cultivation 2004 (ha) 2005 (ha) 2006 (ha) 2006 (ha) 2006 (%) trend 282 838 24 1,200 0 1,310 1,017 62 0 4,733 522 4,366 2,756 28,213 764 36,621 15,607 762 16,369 614 2,444 2,495 803 3,249 1,673 224 1,151 1,974 14,627 29,353 4,959 11,080 2,977 N/A 48,369 2,288 4,983 2,531 115 9,917 131,000

0 0 0 0 0 0 106 0 0 106 115 1,059 274 1,093 1,554 4,095 7,370 1,364 8,734 2,967 2,563 10,837 126 2,665 1,748 275 3,874 3,227 28,282 26,500 12,989 2,024 2,053 2,581 46,147 10,240 2,689 1,924 1,690 16,543 104,000

80 133 0 0 0 124 0 0 0 337 282 932 710 4,872 1,516 8,312 13,056 2,178 15,234 3,205 2,742 7,232 17 3,040 2,024 102 1,960 2,252 22,574 69,324 12,619 9,703 3,210 7,044 101,900 7,694 4,679 2,287 1,955 16,615 165,000

80 133 0 0 0 124 -106 0 0 231 167 -127 436 3,779 -38 4,217 5,686 814 6,500 238 179 -3,605 -109 375 276 -173 -1,914 -975 -5,708 42,824 -370 7,679 1,157 4,463 55,753 -2,546 1,990 363 265 72 61,000

100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100% -100% 0% 0% 218% 145% -12% 159% 346% -2% 103% 77% 60% 74% 8% 7% -33% -87% 14% 16% -63% -49% -30% -20% 162% -3% 379% 56% 173% 121% -25% 74% 19% 16% 0% 59%

Increase Increase Poppy free Poppy free Poppy free Poppy free Poppy free Increase Poppy free Increase Strong increase Increase Strong increase Stable Decrease Stable Increase Stable Strong Decrease Strong Decrease Stable Decrease Stable Strong Decrease Strong Decrease Increase Increase Strong increase Increase Increase Stable Strong Decrease Increase Increase Overall Increase

REASONS FOR OPIUM POPPY CULTIVATION

According to respondents, the high sale price of opium is the main reason for poppy cultivation. For one hectare of opium poppy, farmers can earn nearly 10 times more than cereal crop (Afghanistan Annual Opium Survey 2006 Report, UNODC).

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Table 3: Reasons for opium poppy cultivation in 2007

Reasons for opium poppy cultivation High sale price of opium Poverty alleviation (provision of basic food and shelter) Lack of land High cost of financing a family wedding No aid received from the Government or other sources Possibility of obtaining a loan Demand among addicts Lack of water during summer External pressure (e.g., from a drug trader or local commander) Unemployment Total

Percentage of respondents 26.2% 20.5% 14.3% 14.1% 12.9% 7.3% 2.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 100%

It is interesting to note, by way of comparison, that in 2006, poverty alleviation (provision of basic food and shelter) was the most commonly cited reason for opium poppy cultivation (37 per cent of respondents), while 20 per cent of respondents cited lack of aid from the Government or other sources.

1.3.

CASH ADVANCES RECEIVED FOR POPPY CULTIVATION

Villages in the Badakhshan, Hilmand, Uruzgan, Laghman, Logar, Farah, Khost and Kunar provinces reported that they had received cash advances from drug traffickers to grow opium poppy. The ORAS indicates that 32 per cent of the opium poppy-growing villages received such advances. Table 4: Cash advances by province in 2007

Province Khost Uruzgan Badakhshan Hilmand Laghman Nangarhar Zabul Kunar Farah Kandahar Total

1.4.

No advance received

Advance received

Total

0 11 8 14 4 10 12 4 10 25 150

2 18 12 14 4 8 7 2 2 2 71

2 29 20 28 8 18 19 6 12 27 221

Advance received (percentage of respondents) 100% 62% 60% 50% 50% 44% 37% 33% 17% 7% 32%

FAMILIES INVOLVED IN OPIUM CULTIVATION

ORAS results indicate that 13 per cent of families in surveyed villages are involved in opium cultivation. This figure is consistent with the findings of the 2006 Annual Opium Survey. The corresponding percentage for the southern provinces is strikingly high, closely followed by that for the eastern provinces. A high proportion of families are

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

reported to be involved in opium cultivation in the following provinces: Hilmand (88 per cent), Zabul (86 per cent), Uruzgan (64 per cent), Nangarhar (52 per cent), Farah (39 per cent), Kandahar (31 per cent), Laghman (29 per cent) and Nuristan (26 per cent). While Nuristan was not a opium poppy-growing province until 2005, surveyors report that farmers in the province are increasingly turning to opium poppy cultivation.

1.5.

EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

Of the 508 villages visited, 451 received external assistance (89 per cent). A total of 828 assistance activities were reported in those 451 villages. The fact that 42 per cent of villages that had received external assistance cultivated poppy, as compared to 50 per cent of those that had not, suggests that external assistance has a direct effect on the extent of opium poppy cultivation. An analysis of the link between external assistance and poppy cultivation by region appears to confirm that villages that have not received assistance are more likely to cultivate opium poppy. However, in certain regions, a significant number of villages have cultivated opium poppy despite having received external assistance: 94 per cent of villages in the South, 53 per cent in the North-East, 51 per cent in the East and 34 per cent in the West. Only six per cent of villages in the central region cultivated opium poppy after receiving external assistance. These figures indicate the degree to which the various regions respond to assistance received by curbing opium poppy cultivation. Table 5: External assistance by village

Region

Central East North-East North South West

Assistance received

Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes

No. of villages No opium poppy cultivation 96 0 35 9 15 15 50 0 6 3 56

Opium poppy cultivation 6 2 37 6 17 10 7 6 97 3 29

% of villages cultivating poppy despite having received assistance 6% 51% 53% 12% 94% 34%

The table below sets out the type of assistance received by villages and the bodies engaged in providing assistance.

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Table 6: Distribution of external assistance activities in 2006

Assistance received Medical (including vaccinations) Construction (road/other) Agricultural inputs (including fertilizers) Education Off-farm employment opportunities Irrigation structure Electricity Drinking water Supply of tools to self-employed persons Food Materials for those affected by floods Refugee shelters Total

Government

NGOs

United Nations

226

32

154

3

1

416

50.2%

63

40

15

3

15

136

16.4%

63

27

10

3

9

112

13.5%

57

25

6

1

3

92

11.1%

19

3

9

1

32

3.9%

8 6 2

3 7 3

3

15 13 5

1.8% 1.6% 0.6%

2

2

4

0.5%

1

1

0.1%

1

0.1%

1 828

0.1% 100.0%

Unknown USAID Total

1 447

144

1 198

10

29

%

In the villages visited, 23 per cent of assistance activities were provided by the United Nations. Agricultural assistance has decreased to 13.8 per cent as compared to 18 per cent in 2005. The number of assistance activities routed through the Government has increased since 2005: in 2006, the Government provided 53 per cent of assistance, as compared to 40 per cent in 2005.

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Table 7: Counter-Narcotics Trust Fund projects by province (as of 29 Nov. 2006)* Province/ Project approved

Residential Mycro-hydro treatment power plants centre

Badakhshan Badakhshan Badghis Baghlan Baghlan Balkh Balkh Bamyan Day Kundi Farah Faryab Faryab Ghazni Ghor Hilmand Hirat Jawzjan Jawzjan Kabul Kandahar Kapisa Khost Kunar Kunar Kunduz Laghman Laghman Logar Nangarhar Nangarhar Nimroz Nuristan Nuristan Panjshir Paktika Paktya Parwan Samangan Samangan Sari Pul Takhar Uruzgan Wardak Zabul Budget approved (in US$)

2.5 mill

360,000

Councelling/ Mushroom treatment production services (Pilot)

Greenhouses Roads/ (Pilot) bridges

Roads/ bridges

Silkworm

Honeybees

Flood protection

Fruit orchards and Drought check dams appeal

No. of Irrigation projects per province system

Badakhshan

Bamyan Farah Faryab Ghazni Ghor

Baghlan Balkh Bamyan

Badghis Baghlan

Baghlan Balkh

Balkh

Farah Faryab Ghazni Ghor Hirat

Hirat Jawzjan

Jawzjan

Hirat Jawzjan

Kabul Kandahar

Kunar Kunduz

Kunduz

Nangarhar

Kunduz

Nangarhar

Kunduz

Nangarhar Nangarhar

Nangarhar

Takhar

935,000

130,000

5.3 mill

650,000

3 4 1 1

2 4 1

Paktya

1

Samangan Sari Pul

500,000

3 3 2 2

Nuristan

Samangan Sari Pul Takhar

Takhar

1.4 mill

Farah

6 1 2

Nimroz

Sari Pul

2 2 5 5 2

Badghis Baghlan Balkh

600,000

300,000

* The information presented in this table is not a finding of the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey.

1.2 mill

1.5 mill (up to 4 mill.)

3 3 3

240,000 15.6 mill

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

1.6.

FIELD SECURITY

Security was good in most provinces during the Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey. However, it was a general concern in most areas of Hilmand, Uruzgan, Kandahar, Ghazni, Khost, Paktika, Zabul, Nuristan, Laghman, Nangarhar and Farah. This situation may worsen as the opium poppy flowering or harvesting period approaches, since most of these areas report that villagers and certain groups are prepared to resist eradication. Such resistance has already been encountered in Nangarhar province. The survey indicates that approximately 79 per cent of villages with poor security and 63 per cent villages with very poor security are involved in poppy cultivation, as compared to only 22 per cent of villages with good security. There is a strong link between security conditions and opium poppy cultivation in the southern provinces. Drug traffickers and criminal groups are encouraging villagers to grow opium poppy, particularly in the Hilmand province, giving villagers guarantees for the protection of land on which opium poppy is cultivated and in some areas using threats and intimidation to force those farmers that have not yet cultivated opium poppy to do so. Table 8: Security situation in surveyed villages

Security situation Poor Very poor Very good

1.7.

No. of villages No opium poppy Opium poppy cultivation cultivation 21 79 11 19 152 42

% villages cultivating opium poppy 79% 63% 22%

REASONS FOR NON-CULTIVATION OF OPIUM POPPY

The main reason cited for non-cultivation of opium poppy was the belief that opium poppy cultivation is against Islam (24 per cent of respondents). Other major reasons given were respect for the decisions of the Shura (village council) and the Government’s ban on opium poppy cultivation. Fear of eradication plays a major role in non-cultivation in areas where eradication has been effective in past years. Table 9: Reasons for non-cultivation of opium poppy in 2007

Reasons for non-cultivation of poppy Believed to be against Islam Respect for decisions taken by village elders or Shura Observance of poppy cultivation ban Fear of eradication Fear of other forms of law enforcement (e.g. imprisonment) Provision of assistance Lack of water Low sale price of opium Low demand for opium High cost of inputs (seed, fertilizers, labour, etc) Unfavourable weather Lack of experience Not traditional Fear of addiction

13

Percentage 24% 20% 18% 16% 9% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

The number of responses received for each of the above reasons was consistent with those given in 2006 (Afghanistan Annual Opium Survey 2006 Report, UNODC).

1.8.

ERADICATION

The Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey did not assess the implementation of the eradication campaign, but collected general information on eradication activities in areas visited.

Eradication in Muhmand Dara district of Nangarhar province

Eradication in Baharak district of Badakhshan province

Of the 508 villages surveyed, only 38 had cultivated opium poppy in spite of eradication activities in 2006, whereas 184 villages where eradication measures had not been implemented had cultivated opium poppy. Twenty-two villages have responded to eradication activities in 2006 by desisting from poppy cultivation in 2007. Table 10: Eradication in 2006 vis-à-vis opium poppy cultivation in 2007

Eradication in 2006

No. of villages

No

No opium poppy cultivation 260*

Opium poppy cultivation 184*

Yes

22

38

% of villages cultivating opium poppy 41% 63%

*Includes villages where poppy was not cultivated in 2006

The awareness campaign against poppy cultivation was conducted in many areas of Afghanistan in October and November 2006. Of the 126 villages targeted by the campaign, only 36 villages have cultivated poppy. However, almost 50 per cent of the 337 villages not included in the campaign have opted for poppy cultivation.

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Table 11: Impact of the opium poppy prevention campaign

Prevention campaign

No. of villages

Opium Poppy

No

No opium poppy cultivation 191

Yes

90

36

cultivation 186

% villages cultivating opium poppy after campaign 49% 29%

Regional results indicate that the awareness campaign was highly successful in the northern, central and western provinces, where approximately 90 per cent of villages have not cultivated poppy since the campaign period. The campaign has had mixed success in the East and North-East, where 50 per cent of villages continue to cultivate poppy. In the South, the campaign has had little impact (only four villages have responded positively). Table 12: Impact of the opium poppy prevention campaign by region

Region Central East North-East North South West

Campaign conducted No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes

No. of villages No

Yes

89 7 28 7 11 10 23 41 6

5 1 32 7 8 15 15 3 99 4 27 6

34 25

Total no. of villages 94 8 60 14 19 25 38 44 105 4 61 31

% of villages cultivating opim poppy 5% 13% 53% 50% 42% 60% 39% 7% 94% 100% 44% 19%

UNODC is verifying Governor-led eradication activities and providing all stakeholders with regular updates on the status of those activities. At the time of drafting this report (15 January 2007), 653 hectares of poppy crops had been eradicated in the Nimroz, Farah, Nangarhar, Laghman and Badakhshan provinces.

1.9.

PRICES

In addition to the monthly collection of price information for key provinces, the 2007 ORAS collected price information in all 508 villages surveyed. The average farm-gate prices of dry opium (as at the time of the survey) were in line with the monthly price report. An overview of dry opium prices by province shows that prices are higher in the southern, western and eastern provinces, while generally lower in the northern provinces. Prices are higher in Kabul (province), Khost, Nangarhar and Nimroz owing to the strategic location of these provinces along the trafficking route and/or to strong law enforcement. Overall, opium prices have been conspicuously stable in 2006, and did not decrease as much as one could have expected after the 49% production increase in 2006.

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Farmers in Afghanistan usually cultivate crops twice a year in irrigated areas, typically growing maize, rice, vegetables or cotton following the opium poppy or wheat harvest. Some grow cannabis following the first harvest during the summer. None of Afghanistan’s agricultural products can currently match per hectare income from opium poppy, which is estimated at USD 4,900.

Figure 1: Average farm-gate prices for dry opium (USD/kg)

250 222

200

187 180 170

167

Price in (USD/Kg)

161 154

150

171 161

159 152

147

145

139

150 149

137

145 134

141 140 140 141 139

136 133 125

123

100

50

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

0

Month

Source: UNODC Monthly Opium Price Report for Afghanistan, December 2006

1.10.

CANNABIS CULTIVATION

A greater number of villages are reporting cannabis cultivation than in 2006: of the 508 villages surveyed for the 2007 ORAS, 13 per cent reported cannabis cultivation, whereas the corresponding figure in the 2006 ORAS was only six per cent. Of the villages surveyed, cannabis cultivation was reported in Zabul (74 per cent), Kandahar (62 per cent), Farah (43 per cent), Paktya (33 per cent), Hilmand (29 per cent), Badghis (17 per cent), Logar (17 per cent), Nangarhar (11 per cent), Balkh (11 per cent) and Badakhshan (10 per cent). Small-scale cultivation of cannabis has also been reported in the Takhar, Uruzgan, Baghlan and Hirat provinces.

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Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

According to the 2006 Afghanistan Annual Opium Survey, an estimated 50,000 ha of cannabis crops were cultivated in Afghanistan in 2006, as compared to 30,000 ha in 2005. Data obtained from the field indicated a sharp increase in cannabis cultivation in 2006, particularly in the southern provinces and in some areas of Nangarhar and Paktya. Cannabis cultivation in Afghanistan is expected to increase in 2007.

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Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by province)

UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN

Jawzjan

TURKMENISTAN

!

2024

Takhar

Badakhshan

Kunduz

7232

3040

!

102

Mazar-E-Sharif

2178

Balkh Samangan

Baghlan

Sari Pul Faryab

1960 2742

2252

Panjshir

Nuristan

Badghis 282 0 3205

124

Bamyan

Parwan

2287

!

Wardak

!

Ghor

7044

0

Kabul

Logar Day Kundi

Ghazni

!

Jalalabad

9703

!

4872

Peshwar

0

INDIA Khost 133

Uruzgan Farah

Kunar

Nangarhar

Paktya

0

932

710

0

4679

1516

KapisaLaghman

80

17

Hirat

13056

Fayz Abad

Legend

Paktika

Poppy free

Zabul

7694

Strong Decrease (Above 50%)

0

Decrease (Between 10% to 50%) Stable (Between 0 to 10%)

!

PAKISTAN

12619

69324

3210

1955

IRAN Hilmand

Increase (Between 10% and 50%) Strong increase (Above 50%)

Kandahar !

Nimroz Quetta

¯

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assesment Survey, 2007 (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Main Cities International boundaries

0

50 100

Provincial boundaries

Kilometers Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

2006 Cultivation level (ha)

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by district)

Darwaz

UZBEKISTAN

Khwahan

TAJIKISTAN Shighnan

Ragh

Darqad Chah Ab Fayz Abad Shahri Buzur Khamyab Qarqin Shortepa Yangi Qala Mingajik Fayz Abad Mardyan Kaldar Khani Chahar Khwaja GharRustaq ! Imam Sahib Baharak Dawlat Abad Andkhoy Mazar-E-Sharif Archi Qalay-I- Zal Khwaja Du Ko Nahri Shahi Chahar BolakBalkh Kunduz Ishkashim Taluqan Kalafgan Qaramqol AqchaFayz Abad !Mazari Shari Khulm Dihdadi Chahar Dara Marmul Kishim Bangi Chimtal Dawlat Abad Jurm Shibirghan Ali Abad Hazrati Sultan Chal Farkhar Chahar Kint Ishkamish Baghlani Jad Zebak Aybak Sari Pul Burka Sholgara Shirin Tagab Baghlan Warsaj Sozma Qala Darzab Sayyad Khwaja SabzMaymana Khost Wa Firing Khuram Wa Sabagh Kishindih Almar Nahrin Kuran Wa Munjan Dara-I- Suf Dahana-I- Ghori Sangcharak Bilchiragh Bargi Matal Ghormach Qaysar Pashtun Kot Andarab Dushi Murghab Ruyi Du Ab Balkhab Khinjan Hisa-I-Awali Kohistanat Kamdesh Wama Mandol Kohistan Tala Wa Barfak SalangPanjsherHisa-I-Duwum Nari Kahmard Muqur Waygal Bar Kunar Dawlat Shah Yakawlang Shinwari Gulran Ab Kamari Alasay Nuristan Asad Abad Ghorband Shibar Shekh Ali Kushk Nijrab Jawand Dangam Pech Bagram Qadis Qalay-I- Naw Bamyan Istalif Kohi SafiTagab Alishing Alingar Sirkanay Kushki Kuhna Surkhi Parsa Guldara Kohsan Mihtarlam Dih Sabz Chaghcharan Lal Wa Sarja NurgalChawkay Hisa-I- Awali BihsudJalrez Paghman! Injil Karukh Surobi Qarghayi Khas Kunar Panjab Bagrami ! KamaGoshta Zinda Jan Chishti Shar Nirkh Obe Hirat Markazi Bihs ! Lal Pur Khaki JabbarHisarakJalalabad Rodat Day Mirdad Pashtun Zarghun Waras Shinwar Muhammad Agh Sherzad Guzara Azra Peshwar Chaki Wardak Khogyani Ghoryan Shahrak Dur Baba Puli AlamKhushi ! Day Kundi Tulak JajiChamkani Dih BalaAchin Sayd Abad Farsi Lija Mangal Shahristan Jaghatu Adraskan Jani Khel Nawur Charkh Sayid Karam SabariBakJaji Maydan Zana Khan Pasaband Gardez Saghar Bahrami Shah Taywara Ajristan GhazniDih Yak Kijran Gizab Musa Khel Tere Zayi Malistan Zurmat Jadran Andar Khost(Matun) Shamal Mata Khan Shindand Qarabagh ZirukSpera Tani Gurbuz Jaghuri Pur Chaman Khas Uruzgan Giro SharanSar Hawza Baghran Anar Dara Shahidi Hass UrgunGayan MuqurAb Band Omna Chora Warsaj Nahrin Sarobi Bala Buluk Khost Wa Firing Daychopan Zarghun Shah Gelan Tirin Kot Khaki Safed Barmal Arghandab Dihrawud Gulistan Dila Musa Qala Pusht Rod Shahjoy Kajaki Naw Zad Gomal Nesh ! Qalay-I-Kah Andarab Bakwa Nawa Farah Hisa-I-Awali Qalat Mizan Shah Wali Ko Shib Koh Washer Ghorak Sangin Khakrez Shamulzayi Tarnak Wa Ja Shinkay Mandol Waza Khwa Wor Mamay Nahri Sarraj Panjsher Arghandab Lash Wa Juwa Atghar Khash Rod

Jawzjan

TURKMENISTAN

Wakhan

Takhar

Badakhshan

Kunduz

Legend

Balkh

Samangan

Cultivation trend as compared to 2006

Baghlan

Sari Pul

Faryab

Panjshir

No data

Nuristan

Badghis

No poppy cultivation

Kapisa

Bamyan

Strong decrease

Laghman

Parwan

Decrease

Kunar

No change

Kabul

Wardak

Ghor

Increase

Nangarhar

Logar

Hirat

Day Kundi

Ghazni

Paktya

Strong increase

International boundaries Provincial boundaries

Uruzgan

Zabul

Nad Ali

! Kandahar

Maywand Lashkar Gah Naway i Barakzayi

PAKISTAN Spin Boldak

Zaranj

Reg

Hilmand

Dawlat Shah Alasay

Bagram

Kohi Safi Tagab

Nimroz

Mihtarlam Surobi

Reg

Shorabak

Quetta !

Dishu

Qarghayi

Bagrami

Garmser Chahar Burja

Alishing

Kandahar Dih Sabz

Kamdesh Wama

¯

Hisarak

0

50 100

Azra

Kilometers Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assesment Survey, 2007 (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Khushi

Nuristan

Nari Bar Kunar

Asad Abad Chapa Dara Pech

Dangam

Marawara

Alingar

Narang Chawkay Sirkanay Dara-I-NurNurgal Khas Kunar Kuz Kunar

Jalal!AbadKama Surkh Rod

Khaki Jabbar

Bargi Matal

Waygal

Kohistan Koh Band Nijrab

Daman

Panjwayi

Chakhansur

Kuran Wa Munjan

Hisa-I-Duwum

Arghistan Maruf

Kang

IRAN

Eastern zone

Paktika

Farah

INDIA

Main Cities

!

Khost

Goshta

Lal Pur Chaparhar Rodat Bati Kot Sherzad ShinwarMuhmand Dara Khogyani Nazyan Pachir Wa Agam Dur Baba Dih Bala Achin

Jaji

Lija Mangal Sayid Karam ChamkaniDand Wa Pata Jaji Maydan

!

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Opium planting calendar

Darwaz

UZBEKISTAN

Khwahan

TAJIKISTAN Shighnan

Ragh Khamyab Qarqin

TURKMENISTAN

Darqad Chah Ab Shahri Buzur

Shortepa

Yangi Qala

Kaldar Khani Chahar MingajikMardyan Dawlat Abad Andkhoy Nahri Shahi Khwaja Du Ko Balkh

Muqur Gulran

Ab Kamari

Kushk Kohsan Injil Zinda Jan

Ghoryan

Qadis

Karukh

Hirat #

Obe

Ghor

Tulak Farsi

Day Kundi

Pachir Wa Agam Sayd Abad Puli AlamKhushi Sayid Karam Shahristan Jaghatu Nawur Charkh Jani Khel Zana Khan BakJaji Maydan Bahrami ShahGhazni Gardez Ajristan Dih Yak Zurmat Gizab Tere Zayi Jadran Malistan Andar Mata Khan Khost(Matun) Shamal NikaZirukSpera Tani Gurbuz Qarabagh Jaghuri Sharan Sar Hawza Giro Chora Khas Uruzgan UrgunGayan MuqurAb Band Omna

Day Kundi

Adraskan Pasaband Saghar

Taywara Kijran

Shindand

Baghran

Shahidi Hass

Uruzgan

Bala Buluk Khaki Safed Pusht Rod

Gulistan Musa Qala Kajaki Naw Zad

Farah

#

Qalay-I-Kah

Bakwa

Farah Shib Koh

Washer

Lash Wa Juwa

Khash Rod Nad Ali

IRAN

Zaranj

Nimroz

Zarghun Shah Dila

Shahjoy Nesh

Zabul

Maywand Lashkar Gah Naway i Barakzayi

Hilmand

Gelan

# Kandahar

Sarobi Barmal

Gomal

Nawa

Wor Mamay

March October/March

Peshwar

October/February

#

Kamdesh Wama

Mandol

Hisa-I-Duwum KohistanKoh Band Nijrab Dawlat Shah Mahmud Raqi Bagram Alasay Tagab

Alishing Mihtarlam

Nuristan

Asad Abad

Azra

#

Quetta

¯

Khushi

0

50 100 Kilometers

Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

Narang Sirkanay Chawkay Dara-I-NurNurgal Kuz Kunar Goshta

Lal Pur Chaparhar Bati Kot Rodat Sherzad ShinwarMuhmand Dara Khogyani Nazyan Pachir Wa Agam Dur Baba Dih Bala Achin

Jaji

Puli Alam

Dand Wa Pata Lija MangalChamkani Sayid Karam

Gardez Shwak

Source:MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007 (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Qarghayi

Jaji Maydan Jani Khel Musa KhelSabari Bak Qalandar

Nari

Dangam

Marawara

Alingar

Jalal Abad Kama Surkh Rod

Khaki Jabbar Muhammad Agh

Shorabak

Bar Kunar

Khas Kunar Surobi

Bagrami

Garmser

Waygal

Chapa Dara Pech

Dih Sabz

PAKISTAN

Main Cities

Hisa-I-Awali

Eastern Panjsher Afghanistan

Hisarak

Dishu

December

Provincial boundaries

Maruf

Kandahar

Reg

November

International boundaries

Spin Boldak

Reg

Chahar Burja

October

November/March

Kohi Safi

Arghistan

Daman

Panjwayi

No data September

#

Paktika

Shah Wali Ko Mizan Waza Khwa Qalat Sangin Ghorak Khakrez Shamulzayi Tarnak Wa Ja Shinkay Nahri Sarraj Arghandab Atghar

Kang Chakhansur

Daychopan Arghandab

Dihrawud Tirin Kot

Planting Dates

Paktya Khost

Ghazni

Pur Chaman

Anar Dara

Legend

Panjshir

Nuristan Parwan Kapisa Kunar Laghman Bamyan Kabul # NirkhKabul Khaki Jabbar Markazi Bihs Sherzad RodatJalalabad Hisarak Wardak Lal Pur Muhammad Agh Waras Day Mirdad Azra Nangarhar Chaki Wardak Logar Jaji KhogyaniDih BalaAchin Dur Baba

Shahrak

Guzara

Badakhshan

Takhar

Baghlan

Chishti Shar

Hirat Pashtun Zarghun

Wakhan

Samangan

Sari Pul

Badghis

Qalay-I- Naw Kushki Kuhna

Kunduz

Balkh

Faryab

Murghab

Fayz Abad

Fayz Abad Khwaja Ghar Rustaq Baharak Archi Taluqan Mazar-E-Sharif Ishkashim Qaramqol Kalafgan # Khulm Aqcha Chahar DaraKunduzBangi Marmul Kishim Chimtal Dawlat Abad Fayz Abad Jurm Dihdadi Shibirghan Ali Abad Hazrati Sultan Chal Farkhar Chahar Kint Ishkamish Baghlani Jad Zebak Sholgara Shirin Tagab Sari Pul Aybak Burka Baghlan Warsaj Sozma Qala Darzab Sayyad Khuram Wa Sabagh Puli Khumri Nahrin Khost Wa Firing Khwaja SabzMaymana Kishindih Almar Sangcharak Kuran Wa Munjan Dahana-I- Ghori Dara-I- Suf Bargi Matal Pashtun KotBilchiragh Andarab Hisa-I-Awali Qaysar Dushi Ruyi Du Ab Balkhab Kamdesh Mandol Khinjan Wama Kohistanat Kohistan Tala Wa Barfak SalangPanjsher Nari Kahmard Dawlat Shah Waygal Shinwari Bar Kunar Nijrab PechAsad Abad Nuristan Shibar Shekh Ali Jawand Yakawlang Dangam Alishing Alingar Ghorband Bagram Marawara Bamyan Kohi Safi Surkhi Parsa Sirkanay Narang Dih Sabz Nurgal Tagab Chaghcharan Paghman Chawkay Lal Wa Sarja Mihtarlam Hisa-I- Awali Bihsud Jalrez # Qarghayi GoshtaKhas Kunar Surobi Panjab

Jawzjan

Ghormach

#

Imam Sahib

Qalay-I- Zal

INDIA

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Expected opium poppy flowering time

J

UZBEKISTAN

S

Darwaz

TAJIKISTAN

Khwahan

Khamyab

Ragh Darqad Chah Ab Shahri Buzurg Yangi Qala

Shortepa

Shighnan

Qarqin Fayz Abad Khani Chahar Bagh Kaldar ! Imam Sahib Khwaja GharRustaq Fayz Abad Mingajik Badakhshan Dawlat Abad Andkhoy Baharak Khwaja Du Koh Mardyan Archi Wakhan Nahri Shahi Qalay-I- Zal Taluqan Kunduz Qaramqol Ishkashim JawzjanFayz Abad Kunduz TakharKalafgan Balkh !Mazar-E-Sharif Aqcha Chahar Dara Khan Kishim Marmul Khulm Abad Jurm Shibirghan Bangi Dawlat Abad Chimtal Hazrati Sultan Chal Farkhar Chahar Kint Baghlani JadidAli Abad Ishkamish Sholgara Sari Pul Zebak Shirin Tagab Aybak Baghlan Burka Sozma Qala DarzabSayyad Warsaj Khuram Wa Sarbagh Khwaja Sabz PoshFaryab Legend Puli Khumri Khost Wa Firing Nahrin Almar Samangan Maymana Kuran Wa Munjan Sangcharak Kishindih Dara-I- Suf Dahana-I- GhoriBaghlan Bargi Matal Flowering Calendar Ghormach Pashtun KotBilchiragh Sari Pul AndarabHisa-I-Awali Panjsher Ruyi Du Ab Dushi Qaysar Balkhab Kamdesh Murghab Khinjan Panjshir Mandol Wama Kohistan Panjsher Kohistanat Tala Wa Barfak Salang NuristanWaygal Nari Panjsher Muqur Kahmard Late March Bar Kunar Gulran GhorbandJabalussaraj Badghis Nijrab Ab Kamari Chaharikar Nuristan Alasay Kushk Asad Abad Shibar Yakawlang Early April Parwan BagramKapisa AlishingAlingarPechKunarDangam Jawand Qalay-I- Naw Qadis Narang BamyanBamyan Shekh Ali Guldara Kohi Safi Late April Laghman Kushki Kuhna NurgalChawkay Surkhi ParsaDih Sabz Tagab Kohsan Lal Wa Sarjangal Mihtarlam Hisa-I- Awali BihsudJalrez Chaghcharan Surobi Early May Kabul ! Qarghayi GoshtaLal Pur Karukh Panjab Injil Surobi ! Nirkh Zinda Jan Markazi Bihsud Chishti Sharif ! Hirat Nirkh Khaki Jabbar Jalalabad Late May Muhmand Dara Hisarak Rodat Day MirdadWardak Pashtun ZarghunObe Azra Shahrak HiratGuzara Azra NangarharShinwar Ghoryan Waras Early June Chaki Wardak Logar Dur Baba Day Kundi ! Puli Alam Jaji Achin Ghor JajiSherzad Baraki BarakKhushi Tulak Sayd Abad Dih Bala Late June Lija Mangal Peshwar Farsi Day KundiShahristan Nawur Jaghatu Charkh Jani KhelChakmaniSabari Adraskan Early July Bahrami Shahid(Jaghatu)Zana Khan GardezJani Khel Musa KhelBakJaji Maydan Pasaband GhazniDih Yak Paktya Ajristan Taywara Saghar Nadir Shah KKhost Main Cities ! Kijran Malistan Gizab Zurmat Jadran Mando ZayiTere Zayi Ghazni Andar Provincial boundaries Tani Ziruk Gurbuz Spera Shindand Sharan Pur Chaman Jaghuri Qarabagh International boundaries ChoraKhas Uruzgan Giro Sar Hawza Baghran Shahidi Hassas Urgun Gayan MuqurAb Band Anar Dara Omna Uruzgan Sarobi Andarab Daychopan Gelan Kamdesh Zarghun Shahr Tirin Kot Barmal Hisa-I-Awali Panjsher Khaki Safed Bala Buluk Dihrawud Arghandab Gulistan Musa Qala Wama Dila Pusht RodFarah Shahjoy Paktika Naw Zad Nari Nesh ! Kajaki Qalay-I-Kah Salang Panjsher Mandol Gomal Bakwa Waygal Bar Kunar Nawa Farah Zabul Mizan Shib Koh Shah Wali Kot Waza Khwa Qalat Washer SanginGhorakKhakrez Koh Band Kohistan Nijrab Tarnak Wa JaldakShinkay Wor Mamay Shamulzayi Nuristan Nahri Sarraj Chaharikar Dawlat Shah Asad Abad Dangam Arghandab Lash Wa Juwayn Atghar Khash Rod Chapa Pech ! Daman Dara Bagram Maywand Arghistan Alasay Nad Ali Arghistan Marawara Lashkar Gah Maruf Alingar Alishing Narang Naway i Barakzayi Tagab Kang

TURKMENISTAN

Eastern Afghanistan

PAKISTAN

Hilmand

Chakhansur

IRAN

Zaranj

Nimroz

Panjwayi

PAKISTAN

Kandahar Spin Boldak

Reg

Dara-I-NurNurgal

Mihtarlam Surobi

Khas Kunar Kuz Kunar

Qarghayi

Kabul

Surkh Rod

Reg

Hisarak

Shorabak !

Dishu

Quetta

¯

0

50 100 Kilometers

Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

Muhammad Agha

Logar

Sherzad Khogyani

Azra

Kama

Pachir Wa Agam Dih Bala

Jaji Lija Mangal Dand Wa Patan

PaktyaChamkani

Jaji Maydan

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assesment Survey, 2007(http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Jalal Abad

Goshta

Lal Pur Chaparhar Bati Kot Rodat ShinwarMuhmand Dara

Garmser Chahar Burjak

Sirkanay Chawkay

Achin

Nazyan Dur Baba

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Expected opium poppy harvest time UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN Ragh Darqad Qarqin Khani Chahar Andkhoy

TURKMENISTAN

Kaldar

Mingajik Mardyan

Balkh Mazar-E-Sharif

Nahri Shahi Chahar Balkh Bolak ! Dihdadi Marmul Chimtal

Qaramqol Aqcha Fayz Abad

Shibirghan

Jawzjan Faryab Darzab Khwaja Sabz

Almar

Pashtun Kot

Qaysar

Kunduz

Sangcharak

Kishindih

Baghlan

Ruyi Du Ab

Gulran Yakawlang

Kushki Kuhna

Chaghcharan

Hirat

Zinda Jan

Ghoryan

Bamyan

Guzara

Wardak

Waras Shahrak

Chaki Wardak

Ghor

Tulak

Uruzgan

Farsi

Pasaband

Paktya

Gizab

Kijran

Ghazni

Shindand

Early June

Azra

Logar

Zana Khan

Ajristan

Taywara

Late May Late June

Jalalabad

Muhammad Agh

Shahristan

Saghar

Early May

!

Sayd Baraki Barak Abad

Adraskan

Late April

Kunar

Surobi

!

Maydan Shahir Nirkh

Panjab

Early April

Nuristan

Mandol

Kapisa Laghman

Kabul

Chishti Shar

No Data

Kamdesh

Parwan

Obe Pashtun Zarghun

Harvest Calendar Bargi Matal

Andarab

Panjsher Salang Shinwari GhorbandJabalussaraj Chaharikar Bagram Shekh Ali Guldara

Lal Wa Sarja

Karukh

!

Shibar

Bamyan

Jawand

Kohsan Injil

Baghlan

Tala Wa Barfak

Kahmard

Qalay-I- Naw Qadis

Legend

Warsaj Nahrin

Khinjan

Kohistan

Kushk

Jurm

Dushi

Balkhab Kohistanat

Badghis

Farkhar

Kuran Wa Munjan

Dahana -I- Ghori

Samangan

Sari Pul

Chal Ishkamish

Burka

Puli Khumri

Khuram Wa Sabagh

Dara-I- Suf

Ishkashim

Badakshan

Kishim Bangi

Ali Abad Baghlani Jad

Aybak

Fayz Abad Baharak

Taluqan Kalafgan

Khan Abad

Hazrati Sultan

!

Rustaq

Takhar

Chahar Dara

Sozma Qala

Sayyad

Bilchiragh

Qalay-I- Zal

Khulm

Chahar Kint

Maymana

Shahri Buzur

Khwaja Ghar

Archi

Sholgara

Sari Pul

Shirin Tagab

Yangi Qala

Imam Sahib

Dawlat Abad

Khwaja Du Ko

Dawlat Abad

Chah Ab

Shortepa

Early July

Nangarhar

Jaji Dand Lija Mangal Wa Pata Chakmani Jaji Jani Khel Maydan Musa Khel Qalandar Nadir Shah K Mando Zayi Gurbuz Tani

!

Late July

Peshwar

Provincial boundaries International boundaries

Khost

Baghran

Shahidi Hass

District Boundaries Main Cities

!

Pur Chaman Anar Dara

Chora

Bala Buluk

Andarab

Khaki Safed

Qalay-I-Kah

Tirin Kot

Daychopan

Musa Qala

Pusht Rod

!

Naw Zad

Farah

Kajaki

Zabul

Nesh

Ghorak

Washer

Sangin

Mizan

Shah Wali Ko Khakrez

Arghandab Nad Ali

Lashkar Gah Naway i Barakzayi

Hilmand

Maywand

!

Salang Panjsher

Arghistan

Bagram

Kandarhar

Nuristan

Kapisa

Alingar

Dara-I-NurNurgal

Mihtarlam

Spin Boldak Daman

Surobi

Chahar Burja

!

Quetta

¯

0

50 100 Kilometers

Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

Muhammad Agha

Logar

Sherzad Khogyani

Azra

Kama

Pachir Wa Agam Dih Bala

Goshta

Achin

Nazyan Dur Baba

Jaji Lija Mangal Dand Wa Patan

PaktyaChamkani

Jaji Maydan

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assesment Survey, 2007 (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

Jalal Abad

Lal Pur Chaparhar Bati Kot Rodat ShinwarMuhmand Dara

Garmser

Hisarak

Marawara Narang Sirkanay Chawkay

Khas Kunar

Surkh Rod Shorabak

Asad Abad Dangam

Kuz Kunar

Qarghayi

Kabul Reg

Pech

Laghman

PAKISTAN

Panjwayi

Reg

Chapa Dara Alishing

Tagab

Nari

Kunar

Nuristan

Dawlat Shah

Alasay

Maruf

Nimroz

Waygal Bar Kunar

Mandol

Koh Band Kohistan Nijrab Chaharikar

Tarnak Wa Ja Shamulzayi

Khash Rod

IRAN

Paktika

Qalat

Nahri Sarraj

Kamdesh Wama

Shahjoy

Bakwa

Shib Koh

Lash Wa Juwa

Panjsher EasternHisa-I-Awali Afghanistan

Arghandab

Dihrawud

Gulistan

Nangarhar

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Dry opium price (USD/Kg) 65°E

70°E

UZBEKISTAN TAJIKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

Jawzjan Kunduz

Takhar

Balkh

Badakhshan

Faryab Samangan Sari Pul Baghlan

Nuristan Parwan Kapisa Kunar Laghman Kabul Wardak Nangarhar Logar

Badghis

35°N

Bamyan

Ghor

Hirat

Panjshir

Day Kundi

35°N

INDIA

Paktya Ghazni

Khost

Uruzgan

Farah

Paktika Zabul

PAKISTAN

Legend Dry opium price (USD/Kg)

Hilmand

No data

IRAN

Nimroz

58 - 89

Kandahar

108 - 135 144 - 169

¯

30°N

65°E

30°N 184 - 227

0

50 100

200 Km

Geographic projection, Datum WGS 84

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

International boundaries 70°E

Provincial boundaries

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Village sampling frame and selected villages 65°E

70°E

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Legend

Kandahar

Village Sampling Frame based on elevation zones

Nimroz

¯

65°E

0

50 100

!

200 Km

Geographic projection, Datum WGS 84

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007 Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

<=1500 m >1500 m and <=2500 m >2500 m

30°N

2007 Selected villages International boundaries

70°E

Provincial boundaries

Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assessment Survey, 2007: Expected opium poppy cultivation trends (by province) and security situation in surveyed villages

UZBEKISTAN !

TAJIKISTAN !

Fayz Abad

! ! !

! ! Jawzjan ! ! ! 2024 !!

TURKMENISTAN !

3040 ! ! !!

!

!

!!

! !

3205 ! !

!!

!!! ! !!!

!

!! !

!

Bamyan

!!

4679 ! !! ! ! !! !

!

!! ! !

! !

!

Farah

! ! ! ! ! 7694 !

!

! ! ! 7044 ! ! !

Day Kundi !!

! !

!

!

! ! !

!

! !

17

! ! ! !

Ghor

! !

!Uruzgan ! !! ! ! !! ! 9703 ! !!

! !

! ! !

! ! ! ! !

!

! ! ! ! !

! ! ! !

! !

1955

IRAN Nimroz

!

!

Hilmand ! !

! !! ! ! ! 12619

69324

!

! ! ! !

!

! !!

!

!

! ! ! !

2742!! !

Panjshir

! ! Nuristan ! ! ! ! ! 124 ! 1516 ! ! ! Kapisa ! !! ! 932! !! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! !!!!282 ! ! !! ! Parwan !!! Laghman !! ! !80 ! ! !! Kunar !! ! ! !!! 710 !! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! Wardak !!!! ! !!Kabul ! ! !!! ! ! ! ! 4872 Jalalabad! ! !! ! ! 0 ! !!! Nangarhar ! ! 0!! ! !! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! Logar Peshwar !! 0 ! ! ! Khost ! Ghazni ! ! Paktya ! ! ! ! ! ! !! ! ! ! ! !133 ! ! 0 ! ! ! ! 0

!!

Hirat

!

!! ! !

! ! !!! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! ! ! ! Badakhshan !

!

!

2287

! 1960

! ! !

!! !

! Samangan

Badghis !!

! ! ! ! ! ! !

!

2252

! !! !

!

! Pul! Sari !

Faryab

!

! !

!! ! ! !! !

!

Takhar ! !! ! ! ! ! !! ! !! Kunduz ! 2178 ! ! ! !! !! ! Baghlan ! !

Balkh

! ! ! !

!

102

Mazar-E-Sharif

!! ! ! ! !! ! !!! ! !! 7232

!

13056

!

!!

! ! ! !

! !!

! !

Legend Cultivation trend as compared to 2006

Poppy free Strong Decrease (AboveINDIA 50%) Decrease (Between 10% to 50%) Stable (Between 0 to 10%)

! ! ! Zabul ! !

!

! ! 3210 ! !!

!

!

Increase (Between 10% and 50%)

Paktika

Strong increase (Above 50%) 0 !

! !!!

Main Cities International boundaries

!!

Provincial boundaries

PAKISTAN

! !

2006 Cultivation level (ha)

! !!

Kandahar Security situation in surveyed villages

! !

!!

Quetta

¯

Source: MCN - UNODC Afghanistan Opium Rapid Assesment Survey, 2007 (http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/crop_monitoring.html) Note: The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.

0

50 100

!

Very bad

!

Poor

!

Good

!

Very good

!

No data

Kilometers Geographic Projection Datum: WGS 84

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

2. FINDINGS BY PROVINCE NORTH-EASTERN REGION BADAKHSHAN PROVINCE Cultivation Interviews with village headmen indicated that cultivation levels in 2007 may decrease sharply as a result of early eradication efforts and campaigns against opium poppy cultivation. In 2006, opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan increased by 77 per cent. The Dareem and Argo valleys and the Faizabad, Jurm, Kishm and Baharak districts are the main opium poppy cultivation areas in Badakhshan. Eradication Governor-led eradication began in the Argo, Baharak, Darayim, Jurm and Kishim district of Badakhshan on 12 November 2006. A total of 502 ha of crops are verified to have been eradicated in 50 villages. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

Opium poppy cultivation in Badakhshan province

13 056 Irrigated and rain-fed Decrease High Yes Autumn/spring End of June Very good 85

Opium poppy eradication in Badakhshan province

26

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

TAKHAR PROVINCE Cultivation Respondents reported no change in opium poppy cultivation in all districts in 2007. Takhar lies on a major trafficking route to Tajikistan (via the Chah Ab, Yangi Qala, Darqad and Rustaq districts). Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

27

2 178 Irrigated and rain-fed No change Low No Autumn/spring Mid-June Very good 117

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

EASTERN REGION NANGARHAR PROVINCE Cultivation A sharp increase in cultivation was reported in Nangarhar province in 2007, following an increase of 346 per cent in 2006 as compared to 2005. The highest levels of cultivation were reported in districts close to the border with Pakistan and far from the centre of the province, such as Shinwar, Achin and Nazyana, which resumed opium cultivation in 2006. Opium poppy cultivation now appears to be extending towards the centre of the province. Eradication Eradication activities have been reported in the Jalalabad, Khogyani and Khash Rod districts. A total of 37 ha of crops were verified as having been eradicated by mid-January 2007 Opium Poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

Eradicated opium poppy field in Shinwar district of Nangarhar province

4 872 Irrigated Sharp increase High No Autumn Mid-April Good 191

Eradicated opium poppy field in Achin district of Nangarhar province

28

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

KUNAR PROVINCE Cultivation Respondents reported a sharp increase in cultivation in 2007. An increasing trend in poppy cultivation was also observed in 2006. Asad Abad, Chakay and Pech were the main cultivation areas in 2006. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

932 Irrigated and rain-fed Sharp increase Moderate No Autumn Mid-April Good 184

LAGHMAN PROVINCE Cultivation Opium poppy cultivation in Laghman province is expected to increase in 2007, as in 2006, particularly in remote districts such as Alingar and Dawlat Shah. Eradication Eradication has been reported in the Dawlat Shah and Alishing districts. A total of 45 ha of crops were verified as having been eradicated by mid-January 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

29

710 Irrigated and rain-fed Increase Moderate No Autumn Beginning of April Good 169

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

NURISTAN PROVINCE Cultivation Cultivation is expected to remain at the same levels in 2007 as in 2006. Nuristan is located at a high elevation, and most planting will begin in mid-March.

Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

1 516 Irrigated and rain-fed No change Low No Autumn Beginning of April Very good 160

Four of the 11 villages in Nuristan that were visited during the ORAS reported poppy cultivation in 2007.

30

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

NORTHERN REGION BAGHLAN PROVINCE Cultivation Cultivation in Baghlan province increased considerably in 2006 (as compared to 2005), and the same level of cultivation is expected in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation has been reported in all districts of Baghlan, but particularly in Andarab and Khost Wa Firing. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

2 742 Irrigated and rain-fed No change Moderate No Autumn/spring End of May to mid-June Very good 108

BAMYAN PROVINCE Cultivation The majority of farmers in Bamyan province prefer not to cultivate opium poppy. Cultivation is therefore expected to fall sharply in 2007, and the province may even become poppy-free. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

31

17 Irrigated Sharp decrease Very low No Spring Late July Very good 125

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

BALKH PROVINCE Cultivation Opium poppy cultivation decreased sharply in Balkh province from 2005 to 2006. According to ORAS results, cultivation levels will again fall steeply in 2007. This trend may be attributable to successful awareness campaigns against poppy cultivation conducted before the planting season. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

Opium poppy at planting stage in Balkh province

7 232 Irrigated and rain-fed Sharp decrease Moderate No Autumn End of April Very good 58

Wheat in Balkh province

32

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

FARYAB PROVINCE Cultivation An increase in cultivation was reported from 2005 to 2006. ORAS results suggest that opium poppy cultivation will remain at the same level in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

3 040 Irrigated and rain-fed No change Moderate No Autumn Mid-May Good 71

KUNDUZ PROVINCE Cultivation Kunduz province is neither a major nor a traditional opium poppy-growing region. In 2006, cultivation levels fell steeply . No change is expected in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

33

102 Irrigated No change Very low No Autumn Mid-May Good N/A

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

JAWZJAN PROVINCE Cultivation Jawzjan province was not a significant opium poppy-growing area until 2002. Since then, however, cultivation has increased sharply. In 2006, a reported 2,003 ha of poppy crops were cultivated. However, ORAS results suggest that cultivation will decrease in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

2 024 Irrigated Decrease Moderate No Autumn Late May Good N/A

SAMANGAN PROVINCE Cultivation The ORAS suggests that cultivation will decline sharply in 2007. However, since planting takes place mainly during March, farmers may yet decide to cultivate opium poppy.

Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

1 960 Irrigated and rain-fed Sharp decrease Low No Spring End of July Good N/A

34

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

SARI PUL PROVINCE Cultivation Opium poppy cultivation is expected to decrease sharply in Sari Pul province in 2007. However, while few farmers plant opium poppy as late as March, good water availability may encourage them to do so. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

35

2 252 Irrigated and rain-fed Sharp decrease Low No Spring Late June Very good 66

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

CENTRAL REGION GHAZNI PROVINCE Cultivation In 2006, Ghazni was poppy-free. However, an increase in cultivation was observed in the Andar district during the 2007 ORAS. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

0 Irrigated Increase Very low No Spring Late July Poor N/A

KHOST PROVINCE Cultivation In 2006, a slight increase in cultivation was observed. ORAS results suggest an increase in 2007, particularly in the Tani district. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

133 Irrigated Increase Very low No Spring Late May Poor 227

36

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

LOGAR PROVINCE Cultivation The vast majority of villages in Logar province do not cultivate opium poppy. This trend is not expected to change in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

0 Irrigated/rain-fed Poppy-free Nil No Spring/autumn May/June Very good N/A

PAKTIKA PROVINCE Cultivation Paktika province was poppy-free in 2006; the same trend is expected in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

37

0 Irrigated/rain-fed Poppy-free Nil No Spring June Poor N/A

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

PAKTYA PROVINCE Cultivation Paktya province was poppy-free in 2006; the same trend is expected in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

0 Irrigated Poppy-free Nil No Spring June Poor N/A

PARWAN PROVINCE Cultivation No opium poppy cultivation was observed in the villages visited, and the province may become poppy-free in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation was reported for the first time in the province in 2004 (1,310 ha). Cultivation was negligible in 2005, and only 124 ha of poppy were cultivated in 2006. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

124 Irrigated/rain-fed Poppy-free Nil No Spring Late June Good N/A

38

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

KAPISA PROVINCE Cultivation Although Kapisa is not a major opium poppy-growing province, cultivation is expected to increase in 2007. In 2006, cultivation increased to 282 ha, as compared to 115 ha in 2005. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

282 Irrigated Increase Very low No Autumn/spring Late May/ early July Good 167

WARDAK PROVINCE Cultivation Wardak was poppy-free in 2006, and is expected to remain so in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

39

0 Irrigated Poppy-free Nil No Autumn/spring Late May/early July Very good N/A

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

SOUTHERN REGION KANDAHAR PROVINCE Cultivation Cultivation levels remained unchanged at around 12,500 ha in 2005 and 2006. Cultivation is expected to increase in all districts except Kandahar and Spinboldak in 2007. . Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

12 619 Irrigated Increase High Yes Autumn Beginning of May Poor 135

Ninety-three per cent of the villages in Kandahar that were visited during the ORAS reported poppy cultivation in 2007.

HILMAND PROVINCE Cultivation A steep increase in opium poppy cultivation was observed in Hilmand in 2006. Hilmand accounted for 42 per cent of the total opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan, and cultivation levels here were higher than in any other province. ORAS results indicate a further increase in cultivation in 2007. Hilmand is also the most significant province in terms of heroin processing and trafficking. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

69 324 Irrigated Increase Very high No Autumn Beginning of May Poor 144

40

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

All of the villages in Hilmand that were visited during the ORAS reported poppy cultivation in 2007.

Opium poppy in Hilmand province

Wheat in Hilmand province

URUZGAN PROVINCE Cultivation Uruzgan is one of Afghanistan’s major traditional opium poppy-growing provinces. Cultivation increased from 4,605 ha in 2005 to 9,703 ha in 2006. The ORAS results indicate a further sharp increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2007. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

9 703 Irrigated Sharp increase High No Autumn Mid-May Poor 127

Eighty-eight per cent of the villages in Uruzgan that were visited during the ORAS reported poppy cultivation in 2007.

41

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

ZABUL PROVINCE Cultivation The ORAS predicts an increase in cultivation in all districts of Zabul province in 2007. An increasing trend in poppy cultivation has been observed since 2005. Zabul province is one of the poorest regions of Afghanistan, and a high level of migration from the province to other areas of Afghanistan has been reported. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

3 210 Irrigated Increase Moderate No Autumn Mid-May Very bad 128

All villages in Zabul that were visited during the ORAS reported opium poppy cultivation in 2007.

42

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

WESTERN REGION HIRAT PROVINCE Cultivation Respondents expect cultivation to increase slightly in 2007, particularly in the Ghoryan district. Hirat was not a major opium poppy-growing province until 2003. Cultivation levels have remained unchanged at around 2,000 ha since 2004. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

2 287 Irrigated Increase Low Yes Autumn/spring Late May/late June 116 Very good

FARAH PROVINCE Cultivation Cultivation in Farah decreased sharply from to 2005 to 2006. Respondents expect cultivation levels to remain unchanged in 2007. Since 2004, poppy has been cultivated in all districts of the province. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

43

7 694 Irrigated No change High No Autumn Early May Good 124

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

NIMROZ PROVINCE Cultivation Cultivation is expected to increase in 2007. The year 2005 marked a record increase in cultivation from 115 ha to 1,690 ha, and a further increase was observed in 2006. Nimroz lies at Afghanistan’s borders with Iran and Pakistan, and is therefore one of the major trafficking provinces for the export of Afghani opium. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

1 955 Irrigated Increase Moderate No Autumn Mid-April Good 186

GHOR PROVINCE Cultivation ORAS results indicate a strong decrease in cultivation in Ghor province. This decrease may be attributable to crop disease in 2006, low prices for opium and fear of eradication. Owing to difficult terrain and harsh conditions, agriculture in Ghor province is limited to very narrow valleys. Ghor is one of the main opium-trafficking provinces. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

4 679 Irrigated Sharp decrease Moderate No Spring Late June Very good 150

44

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

BADGHIS PROVINCE Cultivation ORAS results suggest an increase in opium poppy cultivation in 2007. Cultivation levels have risen since 2005, following a sudden increase of 383 per cent (2,967 ha) as compared to 2004. Opium poppy cultivation details: Cultivation in 2006 (hectares) Type of cultivation Projected trend in 2006-2007 Cultivation level Eradication reported Planting time Expected main harvest time Security situation Dry opium price (USD/KG)

3 205 Irrigated and rain-fed Increase No Spring Mid-June Very good 89

Fifty-six per cent of the villages in Badghis visited during the ORAS reported opium poppy cultivation in 2007.

45

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

3. METHODOLOGY The Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey, including training and deployment, was conducted from 10 December 2006 to 18 January 2007 by 78 local field surveyors. It was jointly supervised by the Ministry of Counter-Narcotics (MCN) and UNODC. The surveyors were selected on the basis of their experience in conducting opium poppy surveys, knowledge of local customs and their acceptance by local communities. Sampling framework The surveyors conducted structured interviews with the headmen of selected villages in each district. A total of 508 villages in 236 districts were surveyed across all provinces. Opium poppy cultivation is most successful at altitudes below 1,500 m, where it is significantly more widespread than in areas of higher elevation; opium poppy cultivation above 2,500 m is comparatively rare. In view of the uneven distribution of opium poppy cultivation at different elevations, a stratified sampling method was used to select the sample villages. The villages in the sampling frame were divided into three groups (strata) according to their elevation: Group 1: Villages located at an elevation of less than 1,500 m Group 2: Villages located at elevations between 1,500 m and 2,500 m Group 3: Villages located at an elevation of more than 2,500 m Villages were selected from each group using a systematic random selection technique. The total sampling ratio was 1.65 per cent. The design and size of the sample facilitate the establishment of cultivation trends; the sample is not designed for calculating quantitative areas or production estimates. In addition to the sample villages, the surveyors, using their knowledge of the local situation, visited other areas in the province to complement their assessment both of opium poppy cultivation trends and the security situation throughout the province. Surveyor training Until 2006, all surveyors were provided with ORAS training in Kabul. In order to prepare for the 2007 ORAS, and as part of a capacity-building exercise for national staff, survey coordinators, coordinators of individual provinces and regional survey assistants were trained in Kabul over a four-day period. They in turn trained surveyors in their respective regions. The extension of survey training sessions to the regional level is one of the milestones that has been reached in building national capacity to conduct opium poppy surveys. During the training period, a total of 78 surveyors and nine survey coordinators were trained in the use of the survey form and survey techniques by local UNODC staff in the southern, central, eastern, western, north-eastern and northern regions. Data collection Opium poppy cultivation is illegal in Afghanistan, and is considered to be forbidden under Islam. Given the sensitive nature of the issue, data collection is difficult and can be dangerous. Surveyors are selected from different regions of

46

Afghanistan Opium Winter Rapid Assessment Survey 2007

Afghanistan through a very careful selection process. UNODC and MCN regional offices and coordinators recruit surveyors according to survey specifications and the surveyors’ skills. Most of the surveyors selected already have experience in conducting UNODC surveys. Surveyors were trained in techniques for approaching local community members and conducting interviews. Following intensive theoretical and practical training, they were deployed to the field, where they interviewed headmen of villages and conducted other survey-related activities. UNODC and MCN coordinators monitored data quality and the progress of the survey closely. Fortunately, the surveyors did not encounter any security problems.

ORAS training in Hirat province

Surveyor interviewing village headman in Nangarhar province

Debriefing At the end of the survey, surveyors were debriefed by survey coordinators, reporting on their findings in the areas they had visited and providing an assessment, inter alia, of various factors thought to influence opium poppy cultivation, the security situation, pressure from the Government concerning survey reports, difficulties encountered in conducting the survey, the level of control exercised by Governors over their respective provinces, the presence of anti-government elements with a resulting impact on opium poppy cultivation, corruption, levels of opium poppy and cannabis cultivation. Debriefing facilitates a greater understanding of opium poppy cultivation and the socio-political and other factors that determine cultivation trends, and provides useful guidance in analysing survey data.

47