0102

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

v_id ;f awG bma-umifh b,fvjdk zpfco Jh vJ okdufekdif0if; 'Drkdua&pDv_dif;awG bma=umifhjzpfay:cJhovJ? b,fvkdqifhuJjzpfxGef;cJh=uo vJ? tm;vkH;od+yD;wJhtwkdif;ygyJ? 'Drkdua&pDv_dif;qkdwm EkdifiHawGtpkvkduftòyHvkduf 'Drkd ua&pDpepfqD tcsed u f mvwcktwGi;f rSm ul;ajymif;vmwmukd &nf!e$ ;f wmjzpfygw,f? ya'o&mZf/ oufOD;qHykdifbk&ifpepf/ zufqpf/ ukdvkdeD/ wygwDuGefjrLepf/ qkd&S,fvpf/ yk*~Kdvfa&;ukd;uG,fr_/ ppftm%m&SifpepfpwJh tkyfcsKyfr_ykHpHtrsKd;rsKd;uae 'Drkdua&pDul; ajymif;r_jzpfpOf[m pdwf0ifpm;zG,faumif;ovkd/ twk,lp&mawG&Sdygw,f? 'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;a&; ¶kef;uefóud;yrf;aewJh zGH@òzd;qJEkdifiHrsm;twGuf avhvmoifcef;pm ,lp&m awG wif;=urf;jynfhjzpfygw,f? orkdif;ukdjyef=unfh&if wkdif;jynftoD;oD;eJ@ EkdifiHa&;pepftrsKd;rsKd;rSm wlnDwJh jzpf&yfawG&Sd+yD;/ wòydifeufwnf; wlnDwJhjzpfysufr_awG &Sdwwfygw,f? 1848 ckESpf Oa&mywkid ;f jynfawGrmS awmfveS af &;awG trsm;}uD;jzpfcyhJ gw,f? 1968 ckEpS f urBmw h u dk f }uD;rsm;&JŒ wkdif;jynftrsm;pkrSm tpkd;&qef@usifwJh ausmif;om;v_yf&Sm;r_awG jzpfcJhyg w,f? vufwiftar&dueJ@ tmz&duwkdif;jynfawGrSm tm%modrf;yGJawG +cdrfh+cdrfhoJyJ? 'DvkdyJ wkdif;jynfawG 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;=ujyefawmhvnf; tkHeJ@usif;eJ@waysmfwyg;}uD; ‘v_dif;’ vkd@ukd wifpm;=u&w,f? 'ga=umifh 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;r_v_dif; ay:aygufatmif wGef;ykd@ay;wJh aemufcHta=umif;t&if;awGukd avhvmqef;ppf=unfhoifhygw,f?

v_dif;awGjzpfcJhykH tcsdefumvwcktwGif; EkdifiHawGtpkvkduftòyHvkduf 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;r_ jzpfpOfawGudk ajc&maumuf=unf&h atmif? yxrqk;H Ekid if aH jcmufcrk mS 'Dru dk a&pDjzpfxeG ;f r_ (democratization) ukd,fpDjzpfay:w,fvkd@ ,lq=unfhyg? 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif; jzpfwmukd ‘x’ oauFweJ@ ukd,fpm;ðyxm;yg? EkdifiHajcmufckrSm ‘x’ awGjzpfcJhw,fxm;? tcsed u f mvwpfcrk mS tJ'EhD idk if aH jcmufct k wGi;f ‘x’ awG bma=umifh jzpf&wmvJ? olw@dk rmS ‘x’ awG jzpfay:zkd@b,fvkdta=umif;&if;awGu wGef;ykd@wmvJ? jzpfEkdifajcawGtrsm;}uD;&SdwJhteuf tjzpfEkdifqkH;ta=umif;w&m; av;csuf&Sd ygw,f? 16

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

(1) wpfckwnf;aomta=umif;w&m; (Single Cause) Ekid if aH jcmufc&k ŒJ ‘x’ jzpf&yfajcmufcpk vk;H [m wpfcw k nf;aomta=umif;w&m; a=umifhjzpfcJhw,f? wpfckwnf;aomta=umif;w&m;qkdwmu tiftm;}uD; plyg yg0g topf ay:xGufvmjcif;rsKd; (okd@) EkdifiHwumqufqHa&;rSm t"duuswJhtm%mcGJa0r_ tajymif;tvJawG&Sdvmjcif;rsKd;jzpfw,f? tjcm;vl@tzGJ@tpnf; trsm;tjym;tay: tusK;d *,uf jzpfapr,fph pfy}JG uD;awG ta&;}uD;wJjh zpf&yf ta=umif;&if;rsK;d awGjzpfw,f? Oyrm/ 'kwd,urBmppfrSm r[mrdwfwkd@atmifyGJcHEkdifr_ t"duta=umif;w&m;u EkdifiHtcsKdŒrSm ‘x’ &vm'fawG zGH@òzd;apcJhw,f? 1945 eJ@ 1946 rSm vufwiftar&du wkdif;jynftrsm;pk[m 'Drkdua&pDpdwf0ifpm;vm+yD; trsKd;om;a¶G;aumufyGJawG ukd,fpD usif;yvm=uw,f? 'Dvkd t"duwGef;ykd@ay;wJh yifrta=umif;w&m;ukd ‘A’ tjzpf oauFwxm;vkdufyg? 'gqkd yifrta=umif;w&m;ukd ‘A’ a=umifh EkdifiHajcmufckrSm 'Drkd u&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif; ‘x’ awG ukd,fpDjzpfay:cJh&w,f? x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

A

(2) t+ydKifzGH@+zdK;r_ (parallel development) Ekid if aH jcmufc[ k m pD;yGm;a&;zG@H òzd;r_toD;oD;a=umifh 'Dru dk a&pDqaD ¶GŒvmcJw h ,f? olwkd@&JŒ pD;yGm;a&;tòydifzGH@òzd;r_[m ‘x’ awG ukd,fpDjzpf xGef;cJhygw,f? okd@aomf EkdifiH ajcmufc[ k m pDymG ;a&;zG@H òzd;r_a=umifh ‘x’ awG ay:xGwcf ahJ yr,f/h pDymG ;a&;zG@H òzd;r_ypHk aH wGu ukd,fhvrf;a=umif;eJ@ukd,f jzpfaeygw,f? wpfEkdifiHu wpfOD;csif;0ifaiGeJ@trsKd;om;xkwf ukef (GNP) jrifw h ma=umifjh zpfr,f? tjcm;Ekid if u H pmwwfajrmufrE_ e_ ;f tm;aumif;vk@d jzpfr,f? tjcm;EkdifiHu vlvufwef;pm;eJ@ tqifhjrifhenf;ynma=umifhjzpfr,f? 'DEidk if aH jcmufcpk vk;H rSm 'Dru dk a&pDjzpfxeG ;f zk@d pD;yGm;a&;zG@H òzd;r_ a&cHajrcHaumif; aew,f? ukd,fhjynfwGif; ukd,fcHtm;ukd,fpDa=umifh wcsdefwnf; wòydifeufwnf; ‘x’ awG jzpfapcJhw,f? 'gayr,fh pD;yGm;a&zGH@òzd;r_ta=umif;w&m;u wausmif;w*gxmvkd jzpfwJh twGuf vGwfvyfwJhudef;&Sif (a1,a2,a3) tjzpf ,lygr,f? a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

(3) ESif;abmvkH;jzpfpOf (Snowballing) EkdifiHwEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ ukd jzpfapwJh ta&;}uD;wJh ta=umif;w&m;u tjcm;wkdif;jynf awGrmS vnf; ‘x’ jzpf&yftoD;oD;awG ay:xGuaf pygw,f? Ekid if w H pfEidk if &H ŒJ xl;jcm;xif&mS ; 17

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

vGef;wJh EkdifiHa&;jzpf&yf[m tjcm;urBmhwkdif;jynfrsm;twGuf todynmeJ@oifcef;pm ,lp&mtjzpf csufcsif;ul;oGm;apygw,f? txl;ojzifh qENjyyGJ&v'fawGu tjcm;EkdifiHawGukd tm;usap+yD;/ tvm;wl qEN jy+yD; tpkd;&qef@usifðzwfcsr_rsKd;awG tjcm;EkdifiHrsm;rSm jzpfvmapygw,f? 'Dvkd xl;jcm; wJhjzpf&yfwpfcku EkdifiHwpfEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ukd jzpfapr,f? tJ'Dh ‘x’u tjcm;EkdifiHawGrSm yk H p H w l r sKd ; awG w rk [ k w f c sif ; quf j zpf o G m ;+yD ; ES i f ; qk y f v k H ; ypf a yguf v k d u f o vk d t[kefjyif;jyif; jyef@usJxGufoGm;ygw,f? x4 x2 x5 a1

x1

x3 x6

(4) acwfpm;vmwJh ukd;q,fhajcmufyg;aq; (Prevailing nostrum) EkdifiHtoD;oD;rSm ‘x’ ukd jzpfapcJhwJh rlvta=umif;&if;cHawGu vkH;0rwlbJ wpfausmif;wpf*gxmwpf¶Gmwpfyk'fvkd uJGjym;aer,f? okd@aomf tJ'Dh rwlwJhjy\em awG óuHae&wJh EkdifiHtoD;oD;[m olwkd@udpPukd wkef@jyefajz&Sif;zkd@ aq;!$ef;wpfckwnf; ukdyJ ,kH,kH=unf=unf rsufpdrSdwfukdifqGJvkduf=uw,f? vlajcmufa,muf[m a&m*gwpfa,mufwpfrsK;d jzpfaeayr,fh &rf;ukay;wJh aq;0g; wpfrsKd;wnf;yJ twlwlrsKd=uovkd/ EkdifiHajcmufEkdifiH[mvnf; olwkd@&JŒ wpfausmif; wpf *gxm jy\empkHukdajz&Sif;zkd@&m tpkd;&ajymif;vJa&;ykHpHrSmyJ twlvm xdrd=uygw,f? wpfEkdifiHu aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_ óuHae&w,f/ aemufwpfEkdifiHu Oya'pkd;rkd;r_ ysufjym;ae w,f/ aemufwpfEidk if u H vnf; pD;yGm;a&;usqif;+yD; tvkyv f ufrx hJ al er,f? tjcm;Ekid if H wpfcku ppfa&;¶_H;edrfhvkd@jzpfr,f pojzifh? 'Dvjdk zpf&yfrsK;d rSm/ Ekid if aH wG&ŒJ oD;jcm;jy\em ta=umif;w&m;uk, d pf u D dk (a1,b2,c3) pojzifx h m;? olw@dk &ŒJ jy\emrsm;twGuf ,k, H =Hk unf=unfupk m;tajz&SmwJh enf;vrf; wlnrD u _ dk (z) vkd@,l? aemufqkH; EkdifiHajcmufEkdifiHrSm ‘x’ awG toD;oD;xGufvmygawmh w,f? a1 a2 a3 a4 a5 a6

z z z z z z

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6

tckazmfjycJhwJh 'Drkdua&pDv_dif;rsm;tay: zGifhqkd&Sif;vif;csufav;ck[m b,f tcsdef b,ftcgrSmrqkd a¶GŒvsm;aewwf+yD;/ EkdifiHa&;v_dif;awGukd ajz&Sif;jyzkd@ óud;pm; tm;xkwfwJhtcgwkdif; xnfhoGif;pOf;pm;xm;&r,fh armf',fawGyJjzpfygw,f? 18

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

vGwfvyfudef;&Sifrsm; okd@aomf bma=umifh'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;vm=uovJqkdwJh ta=umif;&if;cH jy\em[m vG,v f , G u f u l rl [kwyf gb;l ? tcsKŒd uawmh wpfa=umif;qGaJ jymw,f? vlr_ a&;/ pD;yGm;a&;zGH@+zdK;r_eJ@ 'Drkdu&ufwpftifpwDusL;&Sif;jzpfxGef;r_[m vkH;0qufpyfae w,f? csr;f omwJh Ekid if t H m;vk;H [m 'Dru dk &ufwpfawGjzpfovk/d 'Dru dk a&pDwidk ;f [mvnf; csr;f om=uw,fqw dk mrsK;d / y¶kw d ufpwifb h mom[m 'Dru dk a&pD&ŒJ a&cHajrcHyq J w dk mrsK;d ? trSefawmh jy\emu 'Dxufykd¶_yfaxG;ygw,f? trsm;pkxifovkd tm%m &Sifukd z,f&Sm;vkduf&if 'Drkdua&pDjzpfua&mqkdwmrsKd;u vufawG@rSmcufygw,f? 'Drkd ua&pDr[kwfwJhtpkd;&wpfckukd z,f&Sm;vkduf+yD;/ vufawG@rSm 'Drkdua&pDjzpfvmzkd@xuf/ aemufxyf 'Drkdua&pDr[kwfwJh tpkd;&wpfckyJ tpm;0ifvmwmrsKd;awG &Sdwwfygw,f? tm%m&SifpepftqkH;owfr_[m 'Drkdua&pD wef;wef;rwfrwfjzpfay:r_ukd OD;rwnfbJ a0hvnfvrf;acsmfr_awG&Sdygw,f? aemuf+yD; tm%m&Siftpkd;&wpfck&JŒ pD;yGm;a&;qkwf,kwfusqif;r_u tJ'Dh tpkd;&ukd csdeJ@apygw,f? okd@aomf tm%m&Siftpkd;&wpfck&JŒ atmifjrifwJhpD;yGm;a&; ukdifwG,fr_u 'Drkdua&pDjzpfxGef;zkd@ tajccHaumif;awG jzpfvmwwfjyefa&m? b,fvkdyJjzpfjzpf ay:vpDqHk;jzwfolrsm; ESvkH;oGif;xm;&rSmu ‘'Drkdu&uf wkdufaZ;&Sif;’ vkd@ qkdvkduf&if tqifhokH;qifhyg0ifw,f qkdwmygyJ? (1)tm%m&Sifpepf tqk;H owfr/_ (2)'Dru dk &ufwpftyk cf sKyfa&; wyfqiftoufoiG ;f r_/ (3)'Dru dk a&pDtyk cf sKyf a&; ,E W&m; uspfvpfckdifrmapr_wkd@ygyJ? tJ'Dh tqifhokH;qifhzGH@òzd;apzkd@u rsm;pGmaom ta=umif;tcsufawG pOf;pm;wGufcsufEkdifzkd@vkdygr,f? 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;awGavhvmzkd@qkd&if oDtkd&Drsm;pGmeJ@ tcsuftvuf aygi;f rsm;pGm &Sad eygvrd rhf ,f? wpfa=umif;qGeJ @J r&bJ vGwv f yf+yD; rlaor[kww f hJ ude;f &Sif (independent variables) aygif;rsm;pGm pOf;pm;&ygr,f? 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;eJ@'Drkd ua&pDukdjzpfapwJh ta=umif;&if;awG udef;&SifawGu atmufygtwkdif;jzpfEkdif ygw,f? - pD;yGm;a&;"eºuG,f0r_ tqifhjrifhrm;r_ - "eESifh 0ifaiGtcsKd;tpm; cGJa0jzef@jzL;&mrSm r#wr_ - aps;uGufpD;yGm;a&; - pD;yGm;a&;zGH@òzd;r_eJ@ vlr_armf'efEkdufaZ;&Sif; - uHau|;csajr&Sifya'o&mZfpepf ysufokOf;r_ - t&if;&SifblZGmtm;aumif;r_ (blZGmr&Sd&if/ 'Drkdua&pDr&Sd) - vlvwfwef;pm;tv$m tm;aumif;r_ - pmwwfajrmufr_E_ef;eJ@ ynma&;a&csdefjrifhr_ - pm;okH;olOD;wnfwJh ,Ofaus;r_ - y¶kdwufpwifhbmom0ifvlOD;a&eJ@ wkdif;jynfrsm; - vlr_A[k0g'eJ@ ynmwwftkyfpktm;}uD;r_ 19

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

- EkdifiHa&;wGif vlxkyg0ifyl;aygif;aqmif¶Gufr_ESifh ygwDòydifqkdifr_ - vlr_tkyfpkrsm;twGif;Yyif 'Drkdua&pD,Ofaus;r_vkyfxkH;&Sdjcif; - t&yfom;tay: t=urf;zufESdyfpufr_ avsmhenf;jcif; - EkdifiHa&;tpGef;a&mufr_/ wyfOD;u|Hr_rsm; avsmhenf;jcif; - EkdifiHa&;acgif;aqmifrsm;. 'Drkdua&pDa&csdef jrifhrm;r_ - +Adwdo#ukdvkdeDb0 tawG@tóuHaumif; vufcH&,lwwfr_ - qef@usifbuftjrifoabmxm;tay: onf;cHEkdifonfhtavhtx - tay;t,ltav#mhtwif;ukd azmufjyefonf[krjrifjcif; - 'Drkdua&pDvkdvm;onfhEkdifiH}uD;u 0ifa&mufodrf;ykdufajymif;vJay;jcif; - 'Drkdua&pDEkdifiH}uD;rsm;. =oZmv$rf;rkd;r_ - Oya'ESifh wpfOD;csif;tcGifhta&; av;pm;r_tpOftvm tavhtx - rsKd;EG,fpk/ bmoma&;/ vlrsKd;a&;axGjym;r_ukd vufcHEkdifpGrf; - EkdifiHa&;ESifh vlr_wefzkd;rsm;tay: trsm;qENvufcHr_ - yk*~Kdvfa&;ukd;uG,fvGef;r_r&Sdjcif;eJ@ tm%m&Sifacgif;aqmifaoqkH;r_ - òrdŒjyjzpfxGef;jcif;/ pufr_xGef;um;jcif; txufaz: jyyg tcsuftvufrsm;[m 'Drkdua&pDeJ@ 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif; jzpfatmifyHhykd;ay;wJh oDtkd&Dta=umif;&if;cHrsm;yJ jzpfygw,f? okd@aomf 'Drkdu&ufwkduf aZ;&Sif;ta=umif;w&m;rsm;[m wpfae&meJ@ wpfae&m/ wpfcsdefrSwpfcsdef trsKd;rsKd; uGmjcm;aewwfygw,f? tJh'Dvkdta=umif;w&m; trsKd;rsKd;uGmjcm;jcif;u atmufyg tqdkðycsufrsm; xkwfay;ygw,f? (1) Ekid if w H pfEidk if H (ok@d ) wkid ;f jynftm;vk;H &JŒ 'Dru dk a&pDz@HG òzd;r_udk &Si;f jyzk@d vkaH vmuf wJhwpfckwnf;aom ta=umif;tcsuftvufqkdwm r&dS? (2) wkdif;jynftm;vkH; 'Drkdua&pDzGH@òzd;apzkd@ wpfckwnf;aom ta=umif;tcsufqkd wmr&SdEkdif? rvkdtyf? (3) wkid ;f jynfwpfcpk &D ŒJ 'Dru dk &ufwu dk af Z;&Si;f jzpfpOfqw dk m ta=umif;w&m;rsK;d pkH aygif;pkHpkpnf;r_&JŒ&v'fjzpf? (4) 'Drkdua&pDukd xkwfvkyfay;wJh ta=umif;w&m;aygif;pkH[m EkdifiHwpfckeJ@wpfck uGmjcm;? (5) v_id ;f wpfcu k jdk zpfay:apwJh ta=umif;w&m;rsm;eJ@ tjcm;v_id ;f wpfcu k jdk zpfapwJh ta=umif;w&m;rsm; uGmjcm;?

wwd,v_dif;ukdqef;ppfjcif; wwd,v_dif; 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;ukd qef;ppfzkd@qkd&if ar;cGef;ESpfckukd t&if ajz=unfzh @dk vkyd gr,f? yxr tJ'w hD wd,v_id ;f rSm Ekid if o H ;Hk q,favmufyJ tm%m&Sipf epf uae 'Drkdua&pDqD ul;ajymif;cJh+yD;/ tjcm;EkdifiHwpf&mausmfu bma=umifh rul;ajymif; 20

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

EkdifwmvJ? 'kwd, tJ'Dh EkdifiHawG&JŒ tpkd;&tajymif;tvJ[m 1970ESpfrsm;eJ@ 1980jynfh vGefESpfrsm;rSmjzpfcJh+yD; 'Dht&if bmvkd@rjzpfwmvJ? yxrar;cGef;eJ@ywfoufvkd@ajym&&if EkdifiHawG[m tm%m&Sifpepfuae 'Drkd ua&pDuu dk ;l ajymif;ovm; rul;ajymif;bl;vm;qkw d mu xdEk idk if aH wG&dS tm%m&Sit f pk;d & rsm;&J@ oabmobm0taetxm;ay:rSm wnfEkdifygw,f? wwd,v_dif;rSm 'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;vmwJh tpkd;&awG&JŒykHpHu trsKd;rsKd;ygyJ? wygwDpepf/ ppftpkd;&/ yk*~Kdvfa&;xl axmifwJh tm%m&Sifpepf/ tom;ta&mif vlrsKd;a&;cGJjcm;r_pepfawG yg0ifygw,f? 'DEkdifiHawG&JŒtm%m&Sifuae 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;ykHukd =unfh&if ykHpH (5)rsKd; (five pattern) xkwf,lEkdifygw,f? oHo&mvnfykHpH (cyclical pattern) tcsKŒd wkid ;f jynfawG[m 'Dru dk a&pDe@J tm%m&Sipf epft=um; a&SŒwk;d aemufiif vGef;xkd;+yD; wvSnfhpDjzpfaeygw,f? 'DykHpH[m vufwiftar&duu tm*sifwD;em;/ b&mZD;/ yD¶l;/ bkdvD;AD;,m; tDauGa'gwkd@eJ@ wl&uD/ Ekduf*sD;,m;wkd@rSmjzpfcJhygw,f? tm%m&Sifjzpfvkduf/ 'Drkdua&pDjzpfvkduf/ tm%m&Sifjyefjzpfvkduf pojzifh? vltrsm;a¶G; cs,fwJh 'Drkdua&pDtpkd;&rsm;eJ@ acgif;rmwJh tm%m&Sifpepftpkd;&rsm;t=um; vl;vm; qefcwf jzpfaeygw,f? 'Drkdua&pDtpkd;&rsm;atmufrSm/ tpGef;a&muft,l0g'&Sdr_/ t*wdvkdufpm;r_/ rwnf+idrfr_awG[m vufrcHEkdifwJh taetxm;tqifha&mufvm+yD; ppfwyfuðzwfcsr_ awGtxd jzpfvmw,f? wcg ppftpkd;&uvnf; wkdif;jynfpD;yGm;a&;jy\em rukdifwG,f wwfr_eJ@ ppfAkdvfawG t&yfbuf tvGeftu|H0ifpGufvmr_awGa=umifh jynfolu zdtm; ay;vkd@ a¶G;aumufyGJawG jyefusif;yay;&w,f? 'Drkdua&pDwvSnfh tm%m&Sif wvSnfhpD jzpfaewmukdu 'Dwkdif;jynfawG&JŒEkdifiHa&;pepfvkd@ ajym&rvm;yJ? 'kwd,t}udrf}udK;pm;r_ykHpH (second - try pattern) tm%m&SifpepfeJ@wkdif;jynf[m 'Drkdua&pDqDul;ajymif;vmw,f? 'gayr,fh ajymif;vmwJh'Drkdu&ufwpfpepf[m ratmifjrifbJusqkH;oGm;jyefw,f? ta=umif;u awmh tJ'w hD idk ;f jynfrmS 'Dru dk a&pDtwGuv f t dk yfwhJ vlrt _ ajccHawGr&Sv d @dk / 'Dru dk &ufwpf acgif;aqmifopfawGuvnf; tpGef;a&mufay:vpDeJ@ t,l0g'awGuae ru|wfEkdifao; vkd@/ pD;yGm;a&;uyfeJ@ ppfyGJawGóuHawG@cJh&vkd@ pojzifh? aemufqkH; tm%m&Siftpkd;&yJ tcsdefumvwpfckxd tm%mjyefukdifcJhygw,f? okd@aomf 'Dwkdif;jynfawGu 'kwd,t}udrf 'Drkdua&pDpepf&atmif ykdóud;pm; =uw,f? t&if'rD u dk a&pDusio hf ;Hk &mrSm ratmifjrifcw hJ mawGudk acgi;f aqmifawGu oif cef;pm,l=uw,f? *smr%D/ tDwvD/ *syef/ =op}wD;,m;/ ukdvHbD,m/ pydef/ ay:wl*D/ *&d/ ukd&D;,m;/ csuf/ ykdvefwkd@[m 'kwd,v_dif;rSm ratmifjrifcJhwmukd oifcef;pm,l+yD; wwd,v_dif;rSm wkd;wufatmifjrifatmif vkyfaqmifcJh=uygw,f? 21

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

wef@&yfwkH@qkdif;ykHpH (interrupted democracy) tcsKdŒwkdif;jynfawG[m umv=um&Snf 'Drkdua&pDwnf&Sdxdef;odrf;+yD;om; jzpfcJhw,f? okd@aomf tcsdefwpfckrSm rwnf+idrfr_/ tpGef;a&mufr_/ qkd&S,fvpfpepfpwJh tajctaeawGa=umifh olwkd@&JŒ &SdESifh+yD;om;'Drkdua&pD[m wef@&yfqkdif;iHoGm;cJhw,f? 1970 ESpfrsm;rSm tdENd,eJ@zdvpfykdifrSm 'Drkdua&pDacgif;aqmifrsm;&JŒ nHhzsif;r_ a=umifh =um;jywfoGm;cJhygw,f? O¶ka*G;eJ@ csDvDwkd@rSmvnf; a¶G;aumufcH'Drkdua&pD acgi;f aqmifrsm;nHzh si;f r_a=umifh ppfacgi;f aqmifawG tm%modr;f cJw h ,f? 'gayr,fh tJ'h D wkid ;f jynfrsm;&JŒ&Snv f sm;wJh 'Dru dk a&pDtawG@tóuHrsm;a=umifh tm%m&Sif wdr;f !$wcf sif olawGu 'Drkdua&pDusifhokH;r_awGukd vkH;0rz,f&Sm;EkdifcJhygbl;? wkduf&kduful;ajymif;r_ (direct transition) wnf+idrfaewJh tm%m&Sifpepfwpfckuae wnf+idrfwJh'Drkdua&pDpepfqD ¶kwf w&uful;ajymif;oGm;jcif;rsKd;ygyJ? 'DjzpfpOfrSm tm%m&Sifpepfukd 'Drkdua&pDpepfu ¶kww f &uftpm;xk;d ,lEidk jf cif;eJ@ tm%m&Sipf epfatmufrmS ykrH eS q f ifu h w J ;dk wufaer_awG &Sdygw,f? ¶kdar;eD;,m;/ bla*;&D;,m/ xkdif0rf/ ruUpDukd/ *GgwDrmvm/ t,fvfqmaA;'kd;/ [Gef'l;&yfeJ@ eDum&m*Ggwkd@[m 'DykHpHeJ@teD;pyfqkH;ygyJ? ukdvkdeDy,fzsufa&;ykHpH (decolonization pattern) 'Drkdua&pDEkdifiH}uD;wcku ol&JŒukdvkdeDwkdif;jynfawGukd 'Drkdu&ufwpftifpwD usL;&Sif;awG csrSwfusifhokH;apw,f? ukdvkdeDwkdif;jynfav;u vGwfvyfa&;vnf;&vm a&m [kd;t&ifu vGwfvyfa&;&wJhEkdifiHrsm;eJ@rwlbJ/ olwkd@rSm&Sdxm;wJh 'Drkdu&ufwpf tifpwDusL;&Sif; tavhtxaumif;awGukd xdef;odrf;=uw,f? ygyl0ge,l;*DeD[m tJ'Dh EkdifiHrsKd;jzpfw,f? 'kdrDeDuef/ pdef@Aif;qifh/ aqmfvrGefu|ef;/ wlAvl; pwJh EkdifiHi,fav;rsm; [m +Adwdo#tifyg,m&JŒ tarGaumif;rsm;ukd vufcHxdef;odrf;EkdifcJh=uygw,f? tckazmfjycJhwJhykHpHrsKd;ukd oauFweJ@ukd,fpm;jyef+yD; ykHazmf=unfhygr,f? ‘A’ u umvwm&SnfwJh tm%m&Sifpepf/ ‘D’ u wnf+idrfwm&SnfwJh 'Drkdua&pD/ ‘a’ u umvwkd tm%m&Sifpepf/ ‘d’ u oufwrf;wkd rwnf+idrf'Drkdua&pD 'DoauFwrsm;eJ@ 'Drkdua&pDzGH@òzd;r_ykHpH (5)rsKd;ukd ykHazmfcs=unfhEkdifygw,f? (1) oHo&mvnf cyclical a

d

a

d

(2) 'kwd,t}udrfóud;pm;r_ second - type A

d

a

D

(3) qkdif;iHh'Drkdua&pD interrupted democracy A

22

D

a

D

a

d

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

(4) wkduf¶kduful;ajymif;r_ direct transition A

D

(5) ukdvkdeDzsufodrf;r_ decolonization D/a

D

wwd,v_dif;rSm 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;cJhwJh EkdifiHtm;vkH;rSm tJ'DhykHpH (5)cku okdif;0kdif;yg0ifaew,f? 1974 eJ@ 1990 t=um; 'Drkdua&pD ul;ajymif;cJhwJhEkdifiH (39)EkdifiH teuf (23)EkdifiH[m ,cif 'Drkdua&pDtawG@tóuH&Sd+yD;om;rsm; jzpfygw,f? ,cif ul; ajymif;wkef;u ratmifjrifcJhwJhtawG@tóuHukd jyefvnfoifcef;pm,lcJh=uygw,f? aemuful;ajymif;cJhwJh EkdifiHawG&JŒtwGif;ykdif;rSm tòydifzGH@òzd;r_awG&SdcJhygw,f? 'Dtcsuf rsm;u 'Drkdua&pDul;ajymif;cJhwJhEkdifiHrsm;eJ@ rul;ajymif;wJhEkdifiHrsm;t=um; jcm;em;csuf jzpfygw,f? 'kwd,ar;cGef;/ 1970/ 1980/ 1990 jynfhvGefESpfrsm;usrS tpkd;&tajymif; tvJawG bma=umifhjzpf&ovJ? 'Dht&ifu bmvkd@ rjzpfovJ? t"dutcsufuawmh ‘jynfolvlxk&JŒ vGwfvyfr_tmomqEN’ [m ykd+yD;}uD;rm;ysHESH@vmjcif;a=umifhygyJ? uGejf rLepf/ qk&d , S v f pf wygwpD epfrsm;&JŒ zdEydS cf sKyfcs,rf r_ sm;/ tm%m&Siq f efrr_ sm;/ pD;yGm; a&;ratmifjrifrr_ sm;/ vl@tcGit hf a&;qdwo f Ok ;f r_rsm;ukd jynforl sm;u tqk;H pGef ¶G&H mS pdwf ukefvmjcif;a=umifh jzpfygw,f? aemuf tJ'q hD ,fcEk pS rf sm;rSm tajymif;tvJ (5)csuu f wwd,v_id ;f rSm yg0if cJhwJhwkdif;jynfawGukd wGef;ykd@ay;ygw,f? (1) 'Drkdu&ufwpfwefzkd;awGukd urBmrSm us,fus,fjyef@jyef@vufcHvm+yD; tm%m&SifpepfawGrSm w&m;0ifr_ (legitimacy) jy\emóuHawG@vm&yg w,f? pD;yGm;a&;usqif;r_/ 1970 jynfhvGefESpfrsm; a&eHaps;a&Smhjzpfr_awG a=umifh w&m;0ifr_avsmhus vmcJhygw,f? (2) 1960 jynfhvGefrsm;rSm róuHpzl;wJh urBmhpD;yGm;a&;wkd;wufr_ &SdcJhygw,f? vlaer_tqifhtwef;jrifhrm;r_/ ynma&;jrifhrm;r_/ wkdif;jynftrsm;pkrSm òrdŒjy vlvwfwef;pm; tjyef@us,fvmr_? (3) 1963-65 rSm 'kw, d t}udrf AmwDuefaumifpu D uufovpfb&k m;ausmif; rsm;&JŒ t,ltqeJ@ aqmif¶GufcsufawGrSm t}uD;tus,ftajymif; tvJ vkyfcJhygw,f? trsKd;om;bk&m;ausmif;rsm;rSm ðyjyifajymif;vJr_awG vkyf+yD; vlr_a&;/ pD;yGm;a&;eJ@ EkdifiHa&;ðyjyifr_awGukd axmufcHaqmif¶Gufygw,f? (4) jynfyEkdifiHrsm;rSm ay:vpDtajymif;tvJawG &SdcJhygw,f? 1960 jynfhvGef aESmif;ykid ;f rSm Oa&mybkt H zG@J u tzG@J 0ifw;dk csŒJ a&; t,ltqopfpwifc?Jh tar &dueftpk;d &u 1974 rSm tjcm;wkid ;f jynfawGrmS 'Dru dk a&pDe@J vl@tcGihf ta&; wk;d jr‡iv hf yk af qmifz@dk t"durl0g' tajymif;tvJvyk cf ?hJ 1980 jynfv h eG rf sm;rSm 23

tvif;&eH@ *sme,f

trSwf(1)? 'DZifbmv 2008 ckeSpf

qkAd , D uf,el , D &H ŒJ tifyg,mxde;f xm;a&;rludk a*:bmacsmAh u f ajymif;vJypf cJhw,f? (5) ESif;abmvkH;jzpfpOf (okd@) qENjyyGJrsm;&JŒtusKd;oufa&mufr_? owif;quf oG,af &;wk;d wufvmr_a=umifh Ekid if w H Ekid if &H ŒJ 'Dru dk a&pDawmif;qkq d ENjyr_[m tjcm; rxifrSwfwJhEkdifiHawGqD tvsiftjreful;qufoGm;+yD; wwd,v_dif; jzpfapzkd@ wGef;tm;ay;cJhw,f? txufazmfjyyg 'Drkdu&ufwkdufaZ;&Sif;v_dif; ta=umif;w&m;rsm;[m zGH@òzd;qJEkdifiHrsm;rSm 'Drkdua&pDazmfaqmifolrsm; (democratizers) twGuf wpkHw&m vrf;!$efr_rsm;ygyJ? ? &nf!$ef; - The Third Wave: by Samuel P. Huntington

'Drdkua&pDEdkifiHwpfckrSm vlrGJawGu vlcsrf;omawGxuf tm%mydk&Sdvdrfhr,f/ bmjzpfvdk@vnf;qdkawmh vlrGJOD;a&u ydkrsm;+yD;/ vlrsm;pk&@J qENu t"duusv@kd ygy?J t&pPwdkw,fvf (bDpD 384-322) *&dvlrsdK; tawG;tac:ynm&Sif

twdu k t f cHawGukd b,favmufvw G v f yfciG jhf yKvnf;qdw k meJ@ 'Drdkua&pDudk wdkif;wm&r,f? tufbD a[mhzfref; (1936-1989) tar&duefvlrsdK; vlr_a&;ESifh Edik if aH &;wufºuGvy_ &f mS ;ol

tm%m&Sifpepf&J@ taumif;qHk;vufeufu vSsdK@0Sufa&;jzpfayr,fh/ 'Drdkua&pD&J@ taumif;qHk;vufeufu yGifhvif;r_jzpfw,f? Edkif;vfpf bdk&f (1885-1962) 'def;rwfvlrsdK; &lyaA'ynm&Sif/ 1922 ckESpf &lyaA'EdkA,fvfqk&Sif 24