Ya Mar One 060309
This document was uploaded by user and they confirmed that they have the permission to share it. If you are author or own the copyright of this book, please report to us by using this DMCA report form. Report DMCA
Overview
Download & View Ya Mar One 060309 as PDF for free.
More details
- Words: 1,493
- Pages: 42
“What We’re Watching to Identify the Economic Recovery”
June 3, 2009 Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.
Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery Real GDP (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-8 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09 F
Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery Leading Economic Indicators vs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%) GDP
10
10
LEI
8
8
6
6
4
-2.5%
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Argus Research Corp.
-4
'85
'95
'05
-2 -4
The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery ECRI Weekly Leading Index 15 10 5 0 -5 10 -10 -15 Source: Bloomberg, ECRI
-20 -25 -30 '99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Fed Indices Point to More Prosperous Times Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0 50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
-3.50 -4.00
'90
'93
'96
'99
'02
'05
'08
A-D-S Business Conditions Index Improving
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Anecdotal Reports Starting to Improve UPS Volume
U.S. Average Daily Package Volume UPS vs. Real GDP
Real GDP
7
6 5
5 4 3
3 2
1 1 -1
0 UPS Volume
-1
Real GDP
3 -3 -2 Source: United Parcel Service, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research -3
-5 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots Direct Outlays, Stimulus Package ($Blns) 250
200
150 Source: CBO
100
50
0
-50
2009
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
2019
Monetary Policy…
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Business Investment has Collapsed Capital Spending (%) Non-Residential Investment 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
Source: Bureau of Economic Research
-40
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Little Reason for Hope in New Orders Data New Orders NonDefense Capital Goods Ex-Aircraft (Y/Y%) 24 16 8 0 -8 8 -16 -24 -32 Source: Department of Commerce
-40
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Key Index Implying Strong Recovery ISM New Orders - Inventories vs. Real GDP NO-I GD P Y / Y %
25
9
20 15
6
10 5
3
0 -5
0
GDP NO-INV NO INV
-10
Source: B EA , ISM , A rgus Research
-15 1983
-3 1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property Structures Spending (%) 30
15
0
-15
-30 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-45
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Signs of Stabilization New & Existing Home Sales New
Existing
1350 7300
1200
New Existing
6550
1050
900
5800
750 5050
600 4300
450 Source: US Dept. of Commerce, National Association of Realtors
300
3550
'96
'99
'02
'05
'08
Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices AZ-Phoenix 300
CA-Los Angeles CA-San Diego
275
CA-San Francisco CO-Denver
250
DC-Washington FL-Miami
225
FL-Tampa GA-Atlanta
200
IL-Chicago MA Boston MA-Boston
175
MI-Detroit
Source: S&P
150
MN-Minneapolis NC-Charlotte
125
NV-Las Vegas NY-New York
100
OH-Cleveland OR-Portland
75 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
TX-Dallas WA-Seattle S
Encouraging Signs in the Housing/Construction Market Architecture Firms' Billing Index 65
60
55
50
45
40
35 Source: American Institute of Architects
30 1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
“Stimulus” May Help Ailing Construction Sector Construction Spending (Y/Y%) 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Non-Residential Residential
-30 Source: Department of Commerce -40 2003
2005
2007
2009
Trade, the Unsexy Savior Contribution to GDP Residential Spending & Trade 3.5 2.93
Residential
3
Trade 2.5
2.18
2 03 2.03
2
1.66 1.33
1.5
0.94
1 0.5
0.59
1.05 0.77
0.09
0 -0.5
-0.12
-0.23
-0.15 -0.52
-0.6
-1 1 -1.11
-1.5
-1.18
-0.91 -1.2
-1.4
-0.6 -0 0.8 8
-1.06
-1.12 -1.33 Source: BEA, Argus Research
-1.39
-2 '06 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'07 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'08 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'09 QI
Some Recovery in Container Traffic Outbound Container Statistics (TEU) Port of Long Beach 170,000 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70 000 70,000 Source: Port of Long Beach
50,000 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Some Signs of Peak in Unemployment 'Jobs Hard-to-Get' & Unemployment Rate U Rate
Jobs Index
50
10 9
40 8 Jobs Index
30
7 6
20 Unemployment Rate
5
10 4 Source: Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
0 '90
'92
'94
'96
'98
00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough Weekly Initial Claims 700 000 700,000 650,000 600,000 Source: US Department of Labor
550,000 500,000 450 000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel Real Consumer Spending (%) 10
5
0
Source: Bureau of Economic Aanalysis
-5 1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out Spending: Meals at Other Eating Places (Y/Y% ) 8
6
4
2
0
-2
4 -4 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-6 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y% 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes Spending: Cosmetics & Perfumes (Y/Y% ) 6
3
0
-3
-6 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-9 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses Spending: Women's Clothing (Y/Y%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-8
'98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y% 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ Recovery… Post Recession, Fab-Five December 2001=100 145 140 135 130 125 120
Dining Out Perfumes Women's Jewelry Casino
115 110 105 100 95
Dec 01 Dec-01
Dec 02 Dec-02
Dec 03 Dec-03
Dec 04 Dec-04
Dec 05 Dec-05
Dec 06 Dec-06
Dec 07 Dec-07
Bad Signs for Summer Spending Real Spending: Hotels & Motels (Y/Y% ) 16 12 8 4 0 -4 4 -8 -12 -16
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Argus Research, NBER
-20 '98
'01
'04
'07
Auto Industry is the Wildcard
America Still Loves Those Trucks Total Vehicle Assemblies (Mlns) 9
Source: Federal Reserve System
Trucks 8
Autos
7 6
4.12 3.97
5
3.72
4 3.11
3.05
3.2
1.33
1.66
1.87
1.84
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
3 2.52 2
3 72 3.72
3 34 3.34
2.95
1 0 Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Prices Aren’t Aren t ‘Collapsing’ Collapsing The Economist Commodity Price Index
275 All Items
260 245
Industrials Food
230 215 200 Source: The Economist
185 170 155 140
2005=100
125 110 2/14/2001
2/13/2002
2/12/2003
2/11/2004
2/9/2005
Market Inflation Expectations Rising 5-Year Treasury Note - Five Year TIPS Spread 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0 50 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Argus Research
-2.50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise Reuters/U. Michigan Inflation Expectations (%) 6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Source: Bloomberg
1.0
0.0
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
Broad Inflation Measures Still Elevated GDP Deflators (%) 6
4
2
0
-2
PCE Deflator GDP Deflator
-4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis -6 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
No ‘Deflation’ in this Respected Measure Dallas Fed Trimmed-Mean PCE Inflation (Y/Y%) 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1.5 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Inflation Pressures Appear to be ‘Well-Anchored’… For Now Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (Y/Y%) 4.5 40 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
Federal Reserve 'Comfort Zone'
1.0 0.5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research
0.0
'90 90
'92 92
'94 94
'96 96
'98 98
'00 00
'02 02
'04 04
'06 06
'08 08
Monetary Policy Getting Easier Every Month Real Fed Funds Rate Core Personal Consumption Deflator (%) 6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Internal Fed Gauge Implies Fed to Remain on ‘Hold’ Argus Leading Fed Funds Index FF %
Index
9
130 37 16 37.16
8
120
FED FUNDS ALFFI
7
110 100
6
90 5 80 4 70 3
60
2
50
1
40
0
30 '90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery…
9 Auto Industry Collapse 9 Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation 9(price ( pass alongs announced during the quarterly y earning season)) 9 Stimulus Fails to Generate Jobs 9 Consumers Decide to Save 9 Jobs Climate Deteriorates Further
Reasons for Optimism…
9 Massive Monetary Stimulus in Pipeline 9 Large Stimulus of Falling Energy Prices 9 Government Has Approved Whopping Fiscal Spending Program 9 Home Prices Have Returned to Pre-Bubble Levels 9 Frozen Credit Markets Have Thawed Considerably
June 3, 2009 Richard Yamarone Director of Economic Research Argus Research Corp.
Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery Real GDP (%) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-8 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09 F
Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery Leading Economic Indicators vs. Real GDP Growth (Y/Y%) GDP
10
10
LEI
8
8
6
6
4
-2.5%
4
2
2
0
0
-2
-3.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Argus Research Corp.
-4
'85
'95
'05
-2 -4
The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery ECRI Weekly Leading Index 15 10 5 0 -5 10 -10 -15 Source: Bloomberg, ECRI
-20 -25 -30 '99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Fed Indices Point to More Prosperous Times Chicago Fed National Activity Index Three Month Moving Average 1.00 0.50 0.00 -0 50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 -2.50 -3.00 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
-3.50 -4.00
'90
'93
'96
'99
'02
'05
'08
A-D-S Business Conditions Index Improving
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Anecdotal Reports Starting to Improve UPS Volume
U.S. Average Daily Package Volume UPS vs. Real GDP
Real GDP
7
6 5
5 4 3
3 2
1 1 -1
0 UPS Volume
-1
Real GDP
3 -3 -2 Source: United Parcel Service, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research -3
-5 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots Direct Outlays, Stimulus Package ($Blns) 250
200
150 Source: CBO
100
50
0
-50
2009
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
2019
Monetary Policy…
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Business Investment has Collapsed Capital Spending (%) Non-Residential Investment 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30
Source: Bureau of Economic Research
-40
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Little Reason for Hope in New Orders Data New Orders NonDefense Capital Goods Ex-Aircraft (Y/Y%) 24 16 8 0 -8 8 -16 -24 -32 Source: Department of Commerce
-40
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Key Index Implying Strong Recovery ISM New Orders - Inventories vs. Real GDP NO-I GD P Y / Y %
25
9
20 15
6
10 5
3
0 -5
0
GDP NO-INV NO INV
-10
Source: B EA , ISM , A rgus Research
-15 1983
-3 1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property Structures Spending (%) 30
15
0
-15
-30 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-45
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Signs of Stabilization New & Existing Home Sales New
Existing
1350 7300
1200
New Existing
6550
1050
900
5800
750 5050
600 4300
450 Source: US Dept. of Commerce, National Association of Realtors
300
3550
'96
'99
'02
'05
'08
Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices AZ-Phoenix 300
CA-Los Angeles CA-San Diego
275
CA-San Francisco CO-Denver
250
DC-Washington FL-Miami
225
FL-Tampa GA-Atlanta
200
IL-Chicago MA Boston MA-Boston
175
MI-Detroit
Source: S&P
150
MN-Minneapolis NC-Charlotte
125
NV-Las Vegas NY-New York
100
OH-Cleveland OR-Portland
75 '00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
TX-Dallas WA-Seattle S
Encouraging Signs in the Housing/Construction Market Architecture Firms' Billing Index 65
60
55
50
45
40
35 Source: American Institute of Architects
30 1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
“Stimulus” May Help Ailing Construction Sector Construction Spending (Y/Y%) 30
20
10
0
-10
-20
Non-Residential Residential
-30 Source: Department of Commerce -40 2003
2005
2007
2009
Trade, the Unsexy Savior Contribution to GDP Residential Spending & Trade 3.5 2.93
Residential
3
Trade 2.5
2.18
2 03 2.03
2
1.66 1.33
1.5
0.94
1 0.5
0.59
1.05 0.77
0.09
0 -0.5
-0.12
-0.23
-0.15 -0.52
-0.6
-1 1 -1.11
-1.5
-1.18
-0.91 -1.2
-1.4
-0.6 -0 0.8 8
-1.06
-1.12 -1.33 Source: BEA, Argus Research
-1.39
-2 '06 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'07 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'08 QI
QII
QIII
QIV
'09 QI
Some Recovery in Container Traffic Outbound Container Statistics (TEU) Port of Long Beach 170,000 150,000 130,000 110,000 90,000 70 000 70,000 Source: Port of Long Beach
50,000 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Some Signs of Peak in Unemployment 'Jobs Hard-to-Get' & Unemployment Rate U Rate
Jobs Index
50
10 9
40 8 Jobs Index
30
7 6
20 Unemployment Rate
5
10 4 Source: Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
0 '90
'92
'94
'96
'98
00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough Weekly Initial Claims 700 000 700,000 650,000 600,000 Source: US Department of Labor
550,000 500,000 450 000 450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel Real Consumer Spending (%) 10
5
0
Source: Bureau of Economic Aanalysis
-5 1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out Spending: Meals at Other Eating Places (Y/Y% ) 8
6
4
2
0
-2
4 -4 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-6 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y% 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes Spending: Cosmetics & Perfumes (Y/Y% ) 6
3
0
-3
-6 Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-9 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Women’s Dresses Spending: Women's Clothing (Y/Y%) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-8
'98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y% 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16 '98
'01
'04
'07
‘Fab Five’ Recovery… Post Recession, Fab-Five December 2001=100 145 140 135 130 125 120
Dining Out Perfumes Women's Jewelry Casino
115 110 105 100 95
Dec 01 Dec-01
Dec 02 Dec-02
Dec 03 Dec-03
Dec 04 Dec-04
Dec 05 Dec-05
Dec 06 Dec-06
Dec 07 Dec-07
Bad Signs for Summer Spending Real Spending: Hotels & Motels (Y/Y% ) 16 12 8 4 0 -4 4 -8 -12 -16
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Argus Research, NBER
-20 '98
'01
'04
'07
Auto Industry is the Wildcard
America Still Loves Those Trucks Total Vehicle Assemblies (Mlns) 9
Source: Federal Reserve System
Trucks 8
Autos
7 6
4.12 3.97
5
3.72
4 3.11
3.05
3.2
1.33
1.66
1.87
1.84
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
3 2.52 2
3 72 3.72
3 34 3.34
2.95
1 0 Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Prices Aren’t Aren t ‘Collapsing’ Collapsing The Economist Commodity Price Index
275 All Items
260 245
Industrials Food
230 215 200 Source: The Economist
185 170 155 140
2005=100
125 110 2/14/2001
2/13/2002
2/12/2003
2/11/2004
2/9/2005
Market Inflation Expectations Rising 5-Year Treasury Note - Five Year TIPS Spread 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0 50 0.50 0.00 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Argus Research
-2.50
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise Reuters/U. Michigan Inflation Expectations (%) 6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0 Source: Bloomberg
1.0
0.0
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
Broad Inflation Measures Still Elevated GDP Deflators (%) 6
4
2
0
-2
PCE Deflator GDP Deflator
-4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis -6 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
No ‘Deflation’ in this Respected Measure Dallas Fed Trimmed-Mean PCE Inflation (Y/Y%) 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1.5 '95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Inflation Pressures Appear to be ‘Well-Anchored’… For Now Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (Y/Y%) 4.5 40 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5
Federal Reserve 'Comfort Zone'
1.0 0.5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research
0.0
'90 90
'92 92
'94 94
'96 96
'98 98
'00 00
'02 02
'04 04
'06 06
'08 08
Monetary Policy Getting Easier Every Month Real Fed Funds Rate Core Personal Consumption Deflator (%) 6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
'87
'89
'91
'93
'95
'97
'99
'01
'03
'05
'07
'09
Internal Fed Gauge Implies Fed to Remain on ‘Hold’ Argus Leading Fed Funds Index FF %
Index
9
130 37 16 37.16
8
120
FED FUNDS ALFFI
7
110 100
6
90 5 80 4 70 3
60
2
50
1
40
0
30 '90
'92
'94
'96
'98
'00
'02
'04
'06
'08
Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery…
9 Auto Industry Collapse 9 Commodity (Food), Energy, Healthcare Inflation 9(price ( pass alongs announced during the quarterly y earning season)) 9 Stimulus Fails to Generate Jobs 9 Consumers Decide to Save 9 Jobs Climate Deteriorates Further
Reasons for Optimism…
9 Massive Monetary Stimulus in Pipeline 9 Large Stimulus of Falling Energy Prices 9 Government Has Approved Whopping Fiscal Spending Program 9 Home Prices Have Returned to Pre-Bubble Levels 9 Frozen Credit Markets Have Thawed Considerably
Related Documents
Ya Mar One 060309
May 2020 8
Mar Ya Ti 010106
October 2019 19
Ya
November 2019 59
Ya
June 2020 29
Ya Ali Ya Hussain
July 2020 31
Hi Ya Ya
June 2020 23More Documents from ""
Pitchbook Private Equity Breakdown 4q 2009
June 2020 2
Annaly Capital
May 2020 5
Petition_signees July 16
May 2020 7
Profit Act
May 2020 9
Calsters
April 2020 5