Wham Nuclear Power Supplement 4.0

SDI 2008 WHAM!

p. 1 of 29 AFF Nuclear Waste Disposal pre tournament updates 4.0

AT K Ecofem..................................................................................................................................2 AT K Biopower...............................................................................................................................4 AT K Biopower – Risk of nuclear war is decreasing extensions................................................9 AT DA Politics they say “DADT good”......................................................................................10 AT DA Politics they say “DADT good” – Terrorism extensions..............................................12 AT DA Politics they say “DADT bad”........................................................................................13 AT DA Japanese competitiveness...............................................................................................15 AT DA Japanese competitiveness - Japanese economy decreasing now extensions...............16 AT DA CFTA................................................................................................................................17 AT DA CFTA Pelosi extensions...................................................................................................18 AT DA CFTA Elections extensions.............................................................................................19 AT DA CFTA- Won’t Pass...........................................................................................................20 AT DA CFTA- Will Pass..............................................................................................................21 AT DA Congressional Elections- Dems Win..............................................................................22 AT DA Congressional Elections General...................................................................................23 AT DA India Deal.........................................................................................................................24 AT DA India Deal IAEA/NSG extensions..................................................................................25 AT DA India Deal - No Time extensions....................................................................................26 AT DA India Deal- Will Pass.......................................................................................................27 AT DA Spending...........................................................................................................................28 AT DA Business Confidence........................................................................................................29

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AT K Ecofem No link - The plan establishes a permanent waste repository and allows interim dry cask storage. They don’t have a specific link to either of those actions. No link – links of omission should be rejected on face. There are a host of other problems in the world that we didn’t mention that doesn’t prove that we hurt or help those issues. Perm – do the plan and all non mutually exclusive components of their alternative. NO LINK: THE ENVIRONMENT AND ANY SCIENCE ARE NOT BUILT UPON PATRIARCHY, THEY HAVE SIMPLY DEVELOPED FROM HUMAN INTELLIGENCE. BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”, http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/forum/1999/11/section_01.html) It is difficult for a scientist to breech the basic level of disagreement between science and ecofeminism: the material Universe does not have the ability to care whether or not humans get the laws of physics right, or whether we even know that such rules exist. 7 The structure and evolution of Homo Sapiens, including our capacity for thought, is the result of a dynamic, physical process responding to the environment. Ecofeminism is wrong when it asserts that the ability to reason is antithetical to nature. Human intelligence arose out of natural processes. During the late Pleistocene, in a struggle for survival against the harsh conditions of the last major ice age, the cerebral cortex of the human brain increased dramatically in size, improving the capacity for intelligence to a degree not seen previously in hominid evolution. This means that the environment, and natural selection, produced the major development in human intelligence from which arose the ability to do science. Intelligence is an extraordinarily useful trait for a species in a changing environment.

Our aff is a da to the alternative – only increasing nuclear power can stop new coal power plants. The impact to that is four extinction scenarios. Turn - Modern science is key to reducing the risk of extinction. SIDY ’02 (Richard, Science, Religion, and the Search for God: Bridging the Gap) Scientific awareness is expanding to the point where the most advanced scientists stand in humble awe before an ever-growing view of the Universe. In searching for the origin and laws of matter, energy, and life, scientists are crossing the threshold from the visible world of matter into the invisible world of energy. They are beginning to develop instruments sensitive to even the subtlest of invisible energies. When science applies its research to the benefit of humanity, there will be greater enlightenment. Rather than spending millions on research to serve materialistic purposes, such scientists may eventually investigate the spiritual causes behind existence. This will broaden the approach of medical science and change people's attitudes towards birth, life and death. New scientific research will make spiritual truths knowable and remove ignorance, fear, and doubt from people's minds. Scientists who are in awe of existence will develop more responsibility in the application of their knowledge. No longer will they use science for war, for greed, or for activities which poison the earth. On the contrary, scientists of conscience do work, and will continue to work to solve the problems of our earth in order to restore health and well-being to our planet. Such science will be an essential tool in man's spiritual search for meaning in life.

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THE SCIENCE THAT IS DERIVED FROM THE ENVIRONMENT IS CRITICAL TO END SUFFERING. BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”, http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/forum/1999/11/section_01.html) The knowledge gained in understanding the environment has led to the ability to alleviate some pain, suffering, and death. Through science and technology endemic diseases like malaria, and dengue and yellow fever have been essentially eradicated in the Western world. Yet in Africa, malaria kills several million people a year, many of them children. The main cause of premature death in the developing world is preventable infectious diseases. The reasons these largely preventable deaths are still occurring are several, including economic, social, and cultural ones. Adopting an extremist ideology that denies the ability of science to discern facts will not help to remove those barriers to applying the technology to save those lives. Ignorance, as always, is a cruel ideology.

Turn – even ecofeminists believe we need to do something about global warming. This is a net benefit to our perm. BALIUNAS ’99 (Sallie, “Extremes of Ecofeminism”, http://oldfraser.lexi.net/publications/forum/1999/11/section_01.html) To be sure, environmental problems caused by humans have existed since hominids first walked upright and began manipulating the environment with their intelligence and tool-making abilities. Ecofeminists work from the belief that humans now have the capacity to alter destructively the earth’s environment. They believe catastrophic global warming is one realistic scenario, requiring emergency and feminist passion. While storytelling and mythmaking are different realizations of the intellectual capacity to do science, they are not useful substitutes for it. In the case of increased carbon dioxide and its possible impact of catastrophic warming, science does have some good news. First, the computer simulations of the climate predict gradual warming over the next 100 years. Evidence has rapidly accumulated (e.g., the global lower tropospheric temperature measurements made by satellites and balloons, or the Arctic temperature records) that the future warming will be much slower and of smaller magnitude than predicted, because the early effects of warming, which should be discernible, have not yet emerged. That leaves a period of several decades in which to study cost-effective mitigation, adaptation, and alternative energy sources (e.g., fission and fusion) without incurring any significant, future penalty in temperature rise. Here the Precautionary Principle (by which an activity must not be allowed unless it is unequivocally proven safe for the environment), a non-scientific principle, enters in the political and social debate. Science is used to put the threat of global warming on the negotiating table (the hypothesis is that projected increases in carbon dioxide will cause catastrophic global warming), then forbidden to define further the problem. ("We know enough and must not take any risks with the earth!") The essential element of open controversy in scientific explorations has been disallowed. Such ideas have led to the Kyoto agreement. Scientists agree that the emission cuts it asks for, though substantial, are far too small to avert any significant amount of the projected global warming, and that the computer simulations that project the warming fail scientific validation. It is refreshing to hear the honesty in the comment of Canada’s environment minister on the Kyoto agreement, "Even if the science is all phoney, there are collateral environmental benefits."8 Even if those benefits, without science, cannot be defined.

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p. 4 of 29 AFF Nuclear Waste Disposal pre tournament updates 4.0

AT K Biopower Identification of biopolitics doesn’t mandate rejection – individual consequences should be evaluated.

Perm do the plan and all non-mutually exclusive parts of their alternative. The perm is net beneficial - the evidence we just read said we need to assess individual consequences which means you can weigh the advantage to the aff in the interim as we transition to their alternative. Any risk of one of our massive 1ac impacts during the transition is a reason to vote affirmative.

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Their impacts are empirically denied – biopower has been increasing but the risk of nuclear war has substantially decreased.

Biopolitics aren’t intrinsically genocidal—it is circumstance, not biopower, which enabled the Holocaust—in fact, strengthening current democratic structures checks genocide O’Kane 97 (Rosemary, Modernity, the Holocaust and politics, Economy and Society, 26:1, p 43-6, AG) Modern bureaucracy is not 'intrinsically capable of genocidal action' (Bauman 1989: 106). Centralized state coercion has no natural move to terror. In the explanation of modern genocides it is chosen policies which play the greatest part, whether in effecting bureaucratic secrecy, organizing forced labour, implementing a system of terror, harnessing science and technology or introducing extermination policies, as means and as ends. As Nazi Germany and Stalin's USSR have shown, furthermore, those chosen policies of genocidal government turned away from and not towards modernity. The choosing of policies, however, is not independent of circumstances. An analysis of the history of each case plays an important part in explaining where and how genocidal governments come to power and analysis of political institutions and structures also helps towards an understanding of the factors which act as obstacles to modern genocide. But it is not just political factors which stand in the way of another Holocaust in modern society.

Modern societies have not only pluralist democratic political systems but also economic pluralism where workers are free to change jobs and bargain wages and where independent firms, each with their own independent bureaucracies, exist in competition with state-controlled enterprises. In modern societies this economic pluralism both promotes and is served by the open scientific method. By ignoring competition and the capacity for people to move between organizations whether economic, political, scientific or social, Bauman overlooks crucial but also very 'ordinary and common' attributes of truly modern societies. It is these very ordinary and common attributes of modernity which stand in the way of modern genocides.

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It is theoretically and practically inconceivable to improve things without transforming state power.

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Turn - the plan’s intervention opens up the possibility of the kritik.

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Deconstruction alone fails. Hardt, Assoc. Prof of Literature at Duke, and Negri, formerly Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Paris, ’00 (Michael and Antonio, Empire, p. 216 , DJW)

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AT K Biopower – Risk of nuclear war is decreasing extensions Risk of nuclear war has substantially decreased. Clinton ’96 (Hillary, Journal of Commerce, July 10, twmh , p. 7A) For 50 years, a cruel and arbitrary line divided Europe. On one side of that line, people came together to contain the threat of Communism moving West. On the other side, tyranny and domination forced people to exchange their freedom for the false promise of a utopian ideal and a distorted sense of social stability. Today, the Berlin Wall, as we know, is gone. There is no Iron Curtain. The line has been erased. In country after country, Communism has crumbled; democracy has come alive. The threat of nuclear war no longer hovers over us.

U.S. leadership is responsible for significantly reducing the greatest threat of nuclear war. Rosenfeld ’90 (Stephen, Washington Post, Oct. 5, twmh , p. A25) In the official view -- the right view -- unification triumphantly caps the end of the division of Europe into Cold War blocs, the rededication of a country and a continent on the basis of democracy, the free market and mutual security, and the reduction of Soviet-American tensions of which the greatest was the threat of nuclear war. That all this happened peacefully and in tandem with the Soviet Union but under American leadership -- the leadership of the past decade and the past four decades -- is cause for pride and rejoicing.

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p. 10 of 29 AFF Nuclear Waste Disposal pre tournament updates 4.0

AT DA Politics they say “DADT good” DADT leads to the collapse of the US’s soft power. Lau, Professor at the University of Chicago, 04 (Holning, 71 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1689, p. 1709 bmk) The United States creates a double standard by resorting to cultural relativism on sexual orientation rights. In his article, On American Exceptionalism, Harold Hongju Koh notes that double standards are a type of exceptionalism that is not new to American foreign policy. n127 What are the consequences of such American exceptionalism? Scholars have asserted that American exceptionalism compromises the United States's soft powers. n128 By reducing American credibility, [*1709] exceptionalism compromises the United States's soft power to conduct diplomacy. There has been a trend, however, among human rights scholars and practitioners to look beyond these soft effects to the transnational legal consequences of American exceptionalism. For example, human rights advocates have challenged the American treatment of Guantanamo Bay detainees through litigation in American courts, n129 British courts, n130 and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. n131

U.S. soft power solves and prevents global conflicts – empirically proven Nye and Armitage in 07 (Richard L. Armitage and Joseph S. Nye Jr., Dec. 9, 07, Stop Getting Mad, America. Get Smart., The Washington Post, Lexis Nexis) In a changing world, the United States should become a smarter power by once again investing in the global good -- by providing things that people and governments want but cannot attain without U.S. leadership. By complementing U.S. military and economic strength with greater investments in soft power, Washington can build the framework to tackle tough global challenges. We call this smart power. Smart power is not about getting the world to like us. It is about developing a strategy that balances our hard (coercive) power with our soft (attractive) power. During the Cold War, the United States deterred Soviet aggression through investments in hard power. But as Gates noted late last month, U.S. leaders also realized that "the nature of the conflict required us to develop key capabilities and institutions -- many of them non-military." So the United States used its soft power to rebuild Europe and Japan and to establish the norms and institutions that became the core of the international order for the past half-century. The Cold War ended under a barrage of hammers on the Berlin Wall rather than a barrage of artillery across the Fulda Gap precisely because of this integrated approach.

DADT causes shortages of translators in military undermining the war on terrorism USA Today, February 13, 2006, (“Arab Speakers Still Scarce”, Lexis, mm) Hoping to make a difference in the world (and perhaps sensing the prospect of likely employment), U.S. students are flocking to newly formed Arabic classes on high school and college campuses. Enrolling is the easy part. First, the students learn that Arabic text reads from right to left but that numbers flow from left to right. Letters change form, depending on where they are placed in a word. Some sounds have no English equivalent. And then the really hard part sinks in. Classical Arabic, which is what's generally taught in U.S. classrooms, is the equivalent of Medieval English. It's fine for literature and diplomacy but virtually useless on the streets of Cairo. And Egyptian colloquial Arabic differs from other colloquial Arabic tongues. It's no wonder the dropout rate is so high. In the best programs, only 25% of first-year students reach the third-year level. In a majority of college programs, students have no choice but to stop after the first year because their university doesn't offer a second year. The persistence of such problems four years after the 9/11 attacks is one measure both of the difficulty of the challenge and of the nation's sluggish response to it. There are many others. In Iraq, the military lacks American translators, forcing reliance on foreigners. At home, an inspector general reported last year that thousands of hours of intelligence tapes remain untranslated. The military, the FBI and the CIA all have sharply increased recruiting of people who speak the languages used on those tapes, but the supply falls far short of the need, particularly for the most-skilled linguists. At the State Department, for instance, only 10 of 34,000 employees are rated fully fluent in Arabic. In his recent budget, President Bush proposed an initiative to address the shortfall by jump-starting training in such critical languages as Arabic, Farsi, Hindi and Urdu. The $114 million program would fund experiments in language instruction and study-abroad opportunities for up to 3,000 high school students. It would pay for 300 teachers to come to the USA and study-abroad opportunities for high-school language teachers. It also would create a corps of 1,000 experts in critical languages to assist the federal government or teach in K-12 schools. The goal is to produce 2,000 advanced speakers of critical languages by 2009. That's a start, if a belated one. When no one is available to translate

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intercepted terrorist communications, you have to wonder whether the war on terrorism can be won. Terrorism risks extinction Yonah Alexander 8/25/03 (professor and director of the Inter-University for Terrorism Studies in Israel and the United States, The Washington Times, http://www.washingtontimes.com/commentary/20030827-084256-8999r.htm) Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements (hudna). Why are the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism, the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare. Unlike their historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism (e.g. biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber) with its serious implications concerning national, regional and global security concerns.

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AT DA Politics they say “DADT good” – Terrorism extensions DADT kicks people out who serve in critical positions. Bender, ’06 (Brian, “Military Retaining More Gay Soldiers”, July 19, 2006, p. l/n, ncv) Recent studies have shown that many soldiers dismissed in past years under "don't ask, don't tell" tended to be in highly trained specialties now in demand, including linguists and medical technicians. DADT results in reductions in translators and intelligence operators. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, ’06 (Undesirable Army: Shortfalls Allow the Entry of Hate-Filled Recruits, July 19, 2006, p. l/n, ncv) Homosexuals in the military have long had to deal with a "don't ask, don't tell" policy. Gays and lesbians are shown the door the second their sexual orientation is known. The military has been consistently ruthless in this regard, even when it meant thinning the ranks of capable translators and intelligence operators for an inconsequential factor like sexual identity.

The Miitary has discharged translators for violating DADT. This hurts the already devastating shortage of military linguistics needed to fight the war on terror. New York Times, January 14. 2005, (John Files, “National Briefing, Gay Linguists Dismissed from Military”, Lexus, mm) The military has discharged 20 service personnel who spoke or had studied Arabic for being gay since 1998, according to new data from the Pentagon. Gay rights advocates argue that the dismissals run counter to a critical shortage of translators and interpreters needed for the war on terrorism. Pentagon officials had previously reported that nine Army linguists, including six trained in Arabic, had been discharged under the military's ''don't ask, don't tell'' policy from the Defense Language Institute in Monterey, Calif. John Files (NYT)

The dispachment of translators who violate DADT hurts the military. Washington Times, December 3, 2003, (Anne Hull, “How ‘Don’t Tell’ Translates: The Military Needs Linguists. But It Doesn’t Want This One”, Lexus, mm) In the past two years, the Department of Defense has discharged 37 linguists from the Defense Language Institute for being gay. Like Glover, many studied Arabic. At a time of heightened need for intelligence specialists, 37 linguists were rendered useless because of their homosexuality.

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AT DA Politics they say “DADT bad” no link – their link is about nuclear power not about waste disposal.

turn - Yucca is very unpopular. Jim Green, National nuclear campaigner - Friends of the Earth, Australia, 2007-05-29, “US-led Global Nuclear Energy Partnership”, jlk, http://www.foe.org.au/campaigns/anti-nuclear/issues/power/us-led-global-nuclear-energypartnership/?searchterm=legislate RADIOACTIVE WASTE Establishing interim storage and permanent disposal facilities for nuclear waste has been a protracted and controversial issue in the US and it is a long way from resolution. The waste management problems could jeopardise plans to build new reactors. The US House Committee (2006) questions whether the Nuclear Regulatory Commission would licence new reactors in the absence of a clear disposal path for spent fuel, and notes that DOE's response is to seek legislation eliminating the availability of disposal space in a permanent repository as a consideration for the NRC in licensing new reactors. The Committee argues that attempting to "legislate away" the waste problem is not a responsible course of action. The estimated opening date for the Yucca Mountain repository in Nevada has been pushed back to 2017 — initially it was planned to be in operation in 1998. The US House Committee (2006) notes that DOE's latest plan for Yucca Mountain envisages a license application for construction being filed in fiscal year 2008, construction starting three to four years later and disposal of commercial spent fuel sometime near the end of the next decade. This is a seven-year delay from the schedule just two years ago, the Committee notes. In other words, Yucca Mountain is not drawing closer but receding into the future!

Nuclear power is still a hot button issue. Waste News, 10-1-07, Revisiting the nuke debate, lexis, bc It's back! After some 30 years, applications have been made for two new nuclear power plants in the United States. And that likely will heat up the nuclear power debate. NRG Energy is seeking to build two new facilities in Texas, the first serious attempt at new nuclear power operations since the infamous accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. Time only has slightly cooled nuclear power as a hot button topic since then.

The trend is that McCain will go ahead of Obama soon. He is already ahead in Colorado and is gaining in every swing state. Introducing the plan can only disrupt his momentum. McClatchy Washington Beurau, byline Steven Thomma, 7/25/08, “Obama wins the week but McCain’s still in the race,” http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/45643.html MH The Arizona Republican went to the battleground states of Ohio and Pennsylvania, dominating local news coverage and talking about gas prices, an issue mentioned in local coffee shops much more than Obama's trip. Polls show Obama with an edge, but the contest still very close. In surveys of battleground states taken just before Obama's trip and during its first days, Quinnipiac University found McCain gaining on him in Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin and pulling narrowly ahead in Colorado. "The race is tightening," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Connecticut University's Polling Institute. "McCain's doing a little better because Obama's post-primary bounce is wearing off."

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McCain is winning Nevada by a narrow margin now and Nevada is a key battle ground state vital to the election. Las Vegas Review Journal, byline Molly Ball, 6/17/08, “New R-J Nevada Poll: McCain 44%, Obama 42%,” http://www.lvrj.com/news/19954494.html MH As the presidential candidates square off for the general election, Nevadans are closely divided between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, according to a statewide poll. If the election were held today, 44 percent would vote for McCain, 42 percent for Obama, while 14 percent of likely voters remain undecided, according to the poll of 625 likely voters, conducted Monday through Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. for the Review-Journal and reviewjournal.com. The presidential contest is well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. It confirms the conventional wisdom that Nevada is a swing state that might throw its electoral votes to either candidate in November. "It's a statistical tie. It's a toss-up," said pollster Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon. "Nevada is a battleground. It's clearly a state both candidates, both campaigns, both parties are going to pay a lot of attention to.

Yucca mountain is a key issue for Nevada voters – they oppose it strongly Las Vegas Review-Journal, Nov. 28, 2007, “Poll finds Nevada voters strongly oppose Yucca, Survey shows 76 percent are against nuclear waste project”, JaretLK, http://www.lvrj.com/news/11882701.html ellipses in original RENO -- Nevada voters remain overwhelmingly opposed to federal plans to store the nation's nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, according to a statewide poll published Tuesday. The survey of 600 likely Nevada voters conducted for the Reno Gazette-Journal found that 76 percent oppose the project and 57 percent say the issue will be important in making their choice for president. The survey also found that opposition to the project crosses party lines, but Democrats think it's a more important issue in the presidential election than Republicans. Seventy-four percent of Democrats said the issue is important to them in the presidential race, compared with 38 percent of Republicans. The poll was conducted Nov. 16-19 by Maryland-based Research 2000. The margin of error is 4 percent. "From a national perspective, any campaign that wants to win the hearts and minds of Nevada voters has to be prepared to talk about long-term radioactive storage," said GOP strategist Greg Ferraro of Reno. "These numbers will also force the candidates to look at alternatives for the waste." Yucca Mountain has gained more attention from presidential candidates since Nevada moved up its presidential caucuses to Jan. 19, following Iowa on Jan. 3 and the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 8. Nevada's congressional delegation is adamantly opposed to the project. Congress in 2002 picked the Yucca Mountain site about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas to entomb 77,000 tons of spent nuclear reactor fuel. Political analysts said the issue's importance in presidential elections has been questionable. They cite President Bush's ability to carry Nevada in 2004, despite his support of the Yucca Mountain site. "Yucca Mountain is not going to swing it for them from one candidate to another," said Eric Herzik, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Reno. "Among Democrats, this is a far more salient issue. There is no nuance allowed. ... Republicans, even those who are opposed to Yucca Mountain, are not as adamant as are the Democrats," he said. Every Democratic presidential candidate has come out against Yucca Mountain, but Rep. Ron Paul is the only Republican candidate to come out strongly against it. The Department of Energy is preparing a license application to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to construct the project.

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AT DA Japanese competitiveness Unique turn - Our economy advantage turns your DA – if the U.S. economy goes down so will the Japanese economy which is slowing now. Associated Press Worldstream ’08 (Feb. 12, l/n, twm) Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota said Tuesday that the nation's economy may temporarily slow down because of the U.S. slump. "The U.S. economy is slowing down at an accelerating pace. It is possible that Japan's economic growth will moderate temporarily because of the U.S.," Ota said at a news conference. She said she will monitor the possible impact of a slowdown in the American economy on Japan. Ota made the remarks when asked about the joint statement Saturday of the financial chiefs of the Group of Seven industrialized countries that acknowledged the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown. But the statement projected that in the long-term the U.S. economy will continue to grow. The American economy a vital export market for Japan nearly stalled in the fourth quarter, growing at a pace of just 0.6 percent. The odds of a recession have grown considerably over the last year, and an increasing number of analysts believe the economy may actually be shrinking now. Those concerns, plus rising oil prices, market volatility and a global credit crunch have all caused analysts to speculate that Japan's economy will also slow.

non-unique high oil and food prices are slowing the Japanese economy now. International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm Japanese corporate profits are falling while consumer prices are expected to keep rising because of high oil and food costs, Masaaki Shirakawa, the governor of the Bank of Japan, said Monday, underlining the central bank's policy dilemma as it juggles the risks of slowing growth and rising global inflation. In a further sign of weakness in the Japanese economy, the Bank of Japan lowered its assessment for eight of Japan's nine regions, with many of its regional branch managers citing soft personal consumption when they met Monday. Shirakawa told the meeting that economic growth in Japan was slowing because of rising energy and raw material costs, with exports increasing at a slower pace and corporate profits decreasing. High commodity prices are expected to push up Japanese wholesale and retail prices, he said, adding that the central bank needed to closely monitor the impact of rising raw material costs on the economy. ''Global inflationary risks are intensifying, as seen in the surge in international commodity prices,'' Shirakawa said during a speech at the quarterly meeting.

no link – the U.S. doesn’t have the tech right now we would have to buy from Japan in the short term Jack Spencer, Research Fellow in Nuclear Energy in the Thomas A. Roe Institute for Economic Policy Studies at The Heritage Foundation, June 2, 2008, Nuclear Power Needed to Minimize Lieberman-Warner's Economic Impact, nna http://www.heritage.org/research/energyandenvironment/wm1944.cfm The reality is that the United States has not ordered a new reactor since the mid-1970s and it does not have the industrial infrastructure to build even one reactor today. Its industrial and intellectual base atrophied as the nuclear industry declined over the past three decades.

turn – the plan massively increases the size of the world nuclear energy market which means that even if U.S. manufacturing gets some of that business Japan will also get new business. no link – we tradeoff with jobs in the coal industry and Japan doesn’t have any sector of that market which means we can only increase their export markets. case turns the DA – runaway global warming will crush the global economy and Japan along with it.

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AT DA Japanese competitiveness - Japanese economy decreasing now extensions Japanese economy slowing now. International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm That is partly because corporate activity, a key driver of growth, is weakening in the face of rising materials costs and a global economic slowdown, putting the Japanese economy's longest postwar expansion cycle at risk. Confidence among big Japanese manufacturers sank to a five-year low in June, while companies expect profits for the fiscal year ending next March to fall for the first time in seven years, a business sentiment survey by the Bank of Japan showed last week.

Majority of regions in Japan have economic problems. International Herald Tribune July 8, 2008 p. 11 l/n twm ''The inflation rate is stable in Japan compared with other countries, and there is no sign of rising crude oil prices leading to higher wages,'' said Azusa Kato, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities, adding, ''I don't think there will be much discussion of a rate hike within the BOJ.'' The central bank's regional branch managers, who meet in Tokyo four times a year, kept their overall assessment of the regional economy unchanged in their report, saying growth continued to slow mainly because of high energy and materials prices. But eight of the country's nine regions downgraded the assessment of their economies, with many describing economic activity as sluggish or slowing. All nine regions lowered their assessment of personal consumption as rising prices of daily necessities made consumers spend less on leisure and more expensive items. ''Consumption is somewhat weak as consumers are cutting back on spending with prices of gasoline and food on the rise,'' said Masahiro Samejima, manager of the Bank of Japan's branch in Osaka in western Japan. ''Department stores say jewelry, paintings and luxury brand items aren't selling very well, partly because share prices aren't rising much,'' he said. Hideo Hayakawa, manager of the Bank of Japan branch in Nagoya, said export and output growth in the central Japanese region of Tokai, home to Toyota Motor, was stagnating partly because of slowing U.S. demand for Japanese cars. The Bank of Japan has kept monetary policy on hold since raising rates in February last year. It abandoned a tightening bias in April this year on lingering economic uncertainty at home and abroad. Kazuyuki Sugimoto, the deputy finance minister, said that he expected the world economy to slow as economies in the developed world weakened, although he added that emerging economies remained firm. Sugimoto, who became deputy finance minister last week, also said that the ministry would carefully monitor currency markets, when asked about President George W. Bush's comment Sunday that the United States believed in a strong dollar policy. ''We do not comment on other countries' currency policy,'' he said. ''We'll watch currencies carefully.''

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AT DA CFTA No vote of CFTA a. April delay Market Watch 7/24/08 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/colombian-food-drink-reportprovides/story.aspx?guid=%7BAC1A0F3C-5F93-4456-A6C1-2E5D154E0397%7D&dist=hppr On April 10 2008 the US House of Representatives voted to indefinitely delay the implementation of the United States-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement. The move effectively delays debate on the politically sensitive free trade deal until after the November 2008 Presidential election and avoids a potentially damaging showdown between the two democratic presidential candidates who have both questioned the merits of free trade. Colombia's food and drink exporters currently enjoy relatively straightforward access to the US under the Andean Trade Preference and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) passed in 2002. However, this agreement will expire on December 31 2008 and the failure to pass the new Trade Promotion Agreement sends a worrying signal that the US may be less open to Colombia's exports under a new administration.

b. Pelosi won’t force a vote Reuters, 7/22/08 http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2231809520080722 The free trade deal with Colombia has been in limbo since April when U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, rebuffed an effort by Bush to force a vote on the pact.

c. Democratic opposition and union violence The Hill, 7/4/08 http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/colombia-rescues-prisoners-but-maybe-not-trade-deal-200807-04.html The dramatic rescue of three U.S. hostages held by a Colombian rebel group is unlikely to win a House vote on a controversial free trade agreement blocked by Democrats. A Democratic aide said that despite the rescue, Colombia still has not achieved satisfactory results in violence against union organizers. In addition, the aide said, Democratic leaders are not inclined to move a trade bill, which many Democrats associate with the loss of manufacturing jobs, after a sixth straight months of job losses.

d. election year politics Human Events, 7/4/08 http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=27350 Colombia’s patience -- sometimes valuable in the war on narcotics -- may soon wear thin because the U.S. Congress is continuing to stall a vote on a Free Trade Agreement, in limbo since its signing 590 days ago in November of 2006. White House Undersecretary for International Trade Christopher A. Padilla said Congress is holding the CFTA hostage to election year politics, having refused it even a debate on the House floor due to Congress’ disagreement with President Bush over “protocol” measures and concerns for labor unions in the country.

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AT DA CFTA Pelosi extensions Pelosi still concerned about security. Reuters, 7/3/08 http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSN03258932 The rescue raised White House hopes that House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi might reconsider her opposition to the U.S.-Colombia free trade agreement and schedule a vote soon on the pact. "One of the concerns that she said she's had has been security in Colombia," White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said. "We maintain that President (Alvaro) Uribe, since elected -- since he was elected -- has done a tremendous job of improving security there in Colombia." Although Pelosi applauds the rescue, it doesn't reduce longstanding concerns she has had about violence facing union workers in Colombia, Pelosi spokesman Nadeam Elshami said. Also, she still believes Congress and the Bush administration must do more to boost the U.S. economy before turning to the Colombia trade pact, Elshami said.

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AT DA CFTA Elections extensions Dems and election year politics are blocking a deal Colombia report 7/24/08 http://colombiareports.com/2008/07/24/constitutional-court-okays-free-trade-pactwith-us/ Colombia’s free trade agreement with the world’s largest economy is the ratification by the U.S. congress. The Democratic majority in congress refuses to put the vote on the agenda until after the November presidential elections, despite numerous requests made by U.S. President George W. Bush and his Republican Party to ratify the pact.

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AT DA CFTA- Won’t Pass CFTA won’t pass- election year Business Week, 7/17/08 http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db20080716_265355.htm A trade deal the Bush Administration negotiated with Colombia could change all that, eliminating tariffs on virtually all U.S. products. But the Colombia deal, as well as major agreements with Korea and Panama, has stalled in Congress. These agreements have become a potent issue in the Presidential campaign. Senator John McCain (R-Ariz.) traveled to Colombia two weeks ago and expressed his support for the Colombia deal, while Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has said he wants to reevaluate various trade deals, including the North American Free Trade Agreement, to increase protections for U.S. workers.

More evidence Michael Collier, COHA Research Associate, 6/27/08 http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/WO0806/S00685.htm In an interview with the Washington Post, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made it clear that stalling a vote on ratification of the CTPA was designed to pressure the Bush Administration to provide further domestic economic stimulus provisions and worker benefits. With Bush unlikely to acquiesce, the prospects for Congress to pass the agreement rest on the outcome of the November elections, which presently do not appear favorable for Republicans. Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Barack Obama has openly declared his opposition to the CTPA, based on Colombia's track record with organized labor and paramilitary groups. Still, Obama's opposition to the CTPA is partially rooted in election year posturing, and his recent vote in favor of the U.S.-Peru free trade agreement indicates he is not opposed to free trade in principle. In the event of a November victory, it is unlikely he would ask Congress to ratify the CTPA in its current form. Alternatively, McCain is an outspoken proponent of the free trade deal, as he will reiterate in his forthcoming trip to Colombia. Since he has repeatedly insisted that maintaining free trade is a key part of his agenda, McCain would categorically pursue CTPA ratification if he wins the 2008 election.

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AT DA CFTA- Will Pass CFTA still possible AP, 7/2/08 http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hL4zfHXeyYm4oj1om5i3Ez81YCvgD91M2GE86 John McCain hailed the economic benefits of free trade to Colombians Wednesday, raising the possibility of an eventual hemispheric-wide agreement even though a weak economy at home has soured many U.S. voters on trade agreements.

CFTA will pass- extradition The Boston Globe, 7/10/08 http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/07/10/opening_up_trade_with_colombia/

When the US House leadership chose not to bring the Colombia Free Trade Agreement to a vote in April, some opponents said that Uribe did not take seriously the atrocities committed by the paramilitary groups. Last May 13, Uribe extradited 14 paramilitary leaders to the United States to face drug trafficking and other charges. They had failed to meet their commitments under the terms of the Justice and Peace Law, including compensating their victims. The extradition of these individuals alone ought to persuade the House to now approve the agreement.

Will pass- Marulanda and hostage rescue The Boston Globe, 7/10/08 http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/07/10/opening_up_trade_with_colombia/

Colombians have more work to do to make their society truly secure, democratic, and just. They have earned respect for what they have accomplished so far and deserve continuing US support. The hostage rescue and the death of a narco-terrorist leader provide the chance for a bipartisan show of engagement with Latin America. Congress should seize it immediately.

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AT DA Congressional Elections- Dems Win Dems will win Ohmy News International, 7/8/08 http://english.ohmynews.com/articleview/article_view.asp?menu=f10600&no=383072&rel_no=1 While most public and media attention has naturally focused on the presidential race, the other elected branch of the US government -- the Congress -- will also face voters in November. And while polls show that the race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain remains tight, the good news in the congressional races is all on the Democratic side of the aisle. Since losing control of both houses of Congress in the 2006 elections, things have only gotten worse for Republicans. In the past year, Democrats have one three seats in special elections in formerly safe Republican districts in Illinois, Mississippi, and Louisiana. In Illinois, Democrats took over the seat formerly held by the last Republican Speaker of the House, Dennis Hastert, while in Mississippi they won the seat held by Roger Wicker, who had won the special election to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Trent Lott. With those wins, the Democrats now hold a 236-199 edge in the House, and seem poised to gain more.

Dems will win- a 14 seat gain is a conservative guess Larry Sabato, Dir. UVa Center for Politics, 6/12/08 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008061201 Furthermore, it appears very likely that Democrats will gain seats in the House, thus padding their majority. The precise number of seats to be added is indeterminate for now, but eight to fourteen is a decent, conservative guess. (As we always do at the Crystal Ball, we will adjust this estimate beginning in early September and ending in early November.) The March 8th Democratic takeover of former GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat in Illinois by a little-known challenger, Bill Foster, was the first warning shot across the Republican bow. So too was the special election of Democrat Don Cazayoux on May 3rd for the seat vacated by Republican Rep. Richard Baker.

Dems are going to win a 60 seat advantage The Weekly Standard, 2008 http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/05/eleven_gop_senate_seats_in_jeo.asp I've always scoffed at the notion that the Democrats could win control of a 60-seat filibuster-proof Senate majority in November, but the Hill's Aaron Blake points out that "Democrats have now polled ahead or within the margin of error in 11 Republican-held seats, as polls conducted in recent weeks show openings in second-tier targets including Kentucky, Mississippi, North Carolina and Texas. . . Democrats have also polled ahead in at least some of the polling in Alaska, Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia, polling substantial leads in the latter three. They have also been within the margin of

Dems will get the 60 vote filibuster US News, 7/24/08 http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/politics/2008/07/24/democrats-have-high-hopes-forhouse-and-senate-races.html With 100-plus days until the elections, top Democrats are high on their prospects of picking up more House and Senate seats. They credit good candidates, fundraising muscle, a strong field operation, and planned TV buys—not to mention Barack Obama's coattails—along with the backdrop of an unpopular GOP president and ailing economy. The GOP, of course, counters that its rivals' early predictions count for little. Could Democrats reach the magic number of 60 for a filibuster-proof Senate majority? Such a feat would certainly confound the expectations of political analysts. Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who is predicting a "tectonic-plate election," says that would be very difficult, but it's not out of the question. Senate Democrats now have a slim voting majority of 51-49. The optimistic Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, says that his party's candidates are ahead in races in Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, New Mexico, and Alaska; running "even or very close" in Oregon, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kentucky, Maine, and North Carolina; and "not close but narrowing" in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Georgia. Leading up to November, Democrats have long had two built-in advantages: far fewer seats up for re-election, 12 vs. 23, and not a single retirement (while five Republican senators are calling it quits). Schumer prefers to point out that 35 races are playing out in 33 states that comprise the "reddest map in a long time." Most contests are in the Deep South, Great Plains, and Mountain West. Only three states with Senate races are blue, though barely: Maine, Minnesota, and Oregon, Schumer says.

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AT DA Congressional Elections General Too many other factors and too far off Larry Sabato, Dir. UVa Center for Politics, 6/12/08 http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008061201 If your district is not listed in our "toss-up", "leans", or "likely" categories, then you can assume for now that the incumbent party has a big leg up to hold it. Yet there will be plenty of surprises in the months ahead, including perhaps a couple more unexpected retirements or primary defeats, not to mention unpredictable scandals. One example is the previously mentioned Don Young of Alaska, who may well lose a GOP primary battle to retain his seat on August 26 to Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell. If Parnell wins, Republicans may retain the House seat in November, while Young would be a sitting duck for Democrats. The House picture could also become complicated by presidential third-parties that may nominate candidates that hurt one party or the other disproportionately. Finally, the fates of politics may consign most of just one party's marginal candidates to defeat if a strong trend develops next fall.

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AT DA India Deal No vote a. IAEA, NSG Joseph Crowley, foreign affairs committee, 7/25/08 http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080058649 Question: Now that the Manmohan Singh Government has won the vote of confidence, what are the chances of the Indo-US Civilian Nuclear deal being passed by the US Congress now? Answer: I do think there are still some issues that are lying in the way before it comes before the US Congress - the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Supplier Group. It has been indicated to us that they would finish the work or come to an agreement near the end of October. That would certainly limit its ability to come to the House (of Representatives) and the Senate before the end of this Presidential cycle. But we do look forward to it. Whether it is IAEA or the NSG there are still some hurdles left that have to be crossed before it comes back to the United States. Question: You have written a letter to the Prime Minister today Answer: I have written a letter to the Prime Minister congratulating him on the vote of confidence that he received. In the letter I indicated to him that it is my hope that the Government of India will use this momentum and move swiftly to allow sufficient time for IAEA and NSG to clear the pact for final approval by the Congress. It is my hope that that will happen. Question: Do you think that the Congress has enough time left on its calendar to consider the deal when it comes to it. How long the Congress can wait for it? Answer: Let me say this. We will be here for another week, and then take a break for the August recess. We will come back in September and we will be here for approximately three weeks. So in total four weeks are left on the legislative calendar before we break for the elections. All indications right now is that there would be no Lame Duck session, but that could change between now and the end of the year. Question: Given that the IAEA and NSG process is unlikely to be completed before September end and that there is less likelihood of a Lame Duck session; so what happens to the deal than if the Congress is not able to approve it before the end of this Presidential cycle. Answer: Well, if the Congress is unable to pass it, I think, a number of things could happen. First of all other countries can move forward. We expect that they would do that. If all works out with the IAEA and NSG then certainly several countries France and probably Britain would move forward in terms of establishing ties with India. In such a situation, certainly the country that initiated this would be at the disadvantage stage. In that case, we would have to take it up again in the next Congress and go through the regular process. Question: That would be time consuming and would have to go through the entire regular process again.

b. No lame duck Alan Kronstadt, Specialist in Asian Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division, 7/8/08 http://in.rediff.com/news/2008/jul/08inter.htm K Alan Kronstadt, an expert on South Asian affairs and a senior analyst at the Congressional Research Service, is acclaimed in Washington, DC for his understanding of India, Pakistan, their conflict over Kashmir, and other issues, both defence and trade-related. As an analyst at CRS, which is a kind of in-house think-tank for the United States Congress, his reports on Pakistan and terrorism and US-Pakistan relations are eagerly studied by Washington policymakers. He spoke to Managing Editor (National Affairs) Sheela Bhatt a day before Congress went into recess for the July 4 break. He discussed the future of the India-US civilian nuclear agreement in its current form and the possibility of it being passed by the United States Congress. What is your take on the Indian government's decision to go ahead with the deal? What is the next possible scenario? Obviously, the steps are quite clear. India will have to finalise the safeguards agreement and get it cleared from the board of the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). The NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) will have to agree to alter its guidelines (to allow) international trade (of nuclear material with India). Once the resolution is ready, it will be presented in Congress for a simple up and down vote. It is expected that there will not be any amendment process. The key here is that, according to our laws, the Congressional calendar in US requires a continuous 30-day session once the president introduces the bill to Congress. The calendar is getting a little tough now. Congress is in recess in August. The session of the 110th Congress, which sat in January 2007, ends this year. The session is slated to end in late September unless a lame-duck session occurs after the November election. Congressmen may or may not decide to come back for the lame-duck session, specially this year, now that we have a presidential election going on too. This is very disruptive to the Congressional schedule. The entire 435 members of the House (of Representatives) and one-third of the members of the Senate are running for re-election. They are compelled to go back to their districts to campaign. Congress is likely to be not in session for (the remainder of the) year unless they choose to come back for the lame-duck session. What if President Bush decides to take it up? Then, there are ways of doing it, right? I am not aware of any steps the president can take to do away with the 30 days of continuous session that is required. It is part of the law. We have the Atomic Energy Act, which is relevant here (It deals with the regulation of nuclear materials and facilities in the US). There is the Hyde Act, which is an enabling act that is clear about the requirements (that come after the submission by the) president. That's why, in the last few months we saw State Department officials started referring... to Senator (Joseph) Biden's statements. As a senior (senator), Senator Biden's words should be taken as quite credible on the issue. Biden said we need to submit (the nuclear deal) sometime in June. When the administration started referring to Biden's statements I took it as a sign that the (Bush) administration itself was seeing the timeline the same way. Subsequent statements from the (US) ambassador (to India David Mulford) and even from some Congressmen suggest that the clock has run out. The 30 days' session starts when the president submits the India-US nuclear co-operation agreement to Congress. To do that, certain steps at have to be completed at the IAEA and NSG. If the necessary steps at the IAEA and NSG are

do you think the nuclear deal has a good chance to pass Congress? The way I see it, there are just not enough days in the Congressional calendar without (including) a lame-duck session. As I understand a session is planned in September that only leaves whatever days are left in September and whatever days remain in July. I don't see how they (could) get 30 continuous days out of that. completed by, say, the end of July, then

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AT DA India Deal IAEA/NSG extensions Vote unlikely during bush presidency Joseph Crowley, foreign affairs committee, 7/25/08 http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080058649 Question: The conversation with you gives me a sense that the chances of the deal going through the Congress this year is very less. Answer: I think what we have to look at is that there is a time issue in the Congress within this session and within this President's term. That is dictated by our constitution and not by per say politics. Right now, I think, we are jumping ahead to Congress when we do not even have an agreement reached with the NSG or the IAEA. I understand the concerns of the Indian Government to get it passed this year, but there are still hurdles prior to it coming back to the Congress that have not been addressed yet. So some may suggest that this could be a pre mature conversation, but I do hope that they do move expeditiously enough so that we can at least have some sense of if we can bring this before the House or now. Question: Is it unlikely that the Lame Duck session would be held this time? Answer: I did not say that there is no chance (of a Lame Duck session). But the indications right now would lead me to believe that the chances right now are less likely than likely. We do not know what will happen.

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AT DA India Deal - No Time extensions Time is running out on the India deal. The Hindu, 7/24/08 http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/000200807240921.htmWashington (PTI): A senior Democratic law maker has said the likelihood of the Congress taking up the Indo-US civilian nuclear deal before the year-end is "very" difficult. "My perspective regarding likelihood of the US Congress taking up the nuclear issue again before the year-end is that as a practical matter, it will be very difficult," Jim McDermott said in a statement. "I have closely watched the recent developments in India concerning the nuclear energy issue and the confidence vote for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his government. But time is running out," he said. Agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group must be obtained before the issue can reach Congress, the Congressman explained. "The primary focus in US over the next few months will be on politics leading up to the November election in which the American people will elect a new President, vote on all 435 House Members and one-

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AT DA India Deal- Will Pass India deal will pass soon – it has momentum NDTV, 7/25 http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080058742&ch=7/26/2008%2012:15:00%20AM After the Indo-US nuclear deal cleared its biggest hurdle on Tuesday, the anti-deal lobby in the US is now pinning all their hopes on opposition to it by at least a few members of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Nuclear Suppliers Group and the US Congress where it would soon be coming for clearance. A bit disappointed with turn of events in New Delhi on Tuesday wherein Manmohan Singh won the vote of confidence in Parliament, the anti-nuke lobby believes that it would now be difficult for them to stop it, given the Bush administration is geared up to muster all the resources at their command to get the deal passed quickly through the IAEA, NSG and the Congress.

Will pass – momentum and biden support NDTV, 7/25 http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv/story.aspx?id=NEWEN20080058376&ch=7/23/2008%208:45:00%20PM) Within minutes of the government winning the confidence vote, supporters of the nuclear deal in the US prepared to pick up the baton and sprint towards the finish line. USIBC, an Industry group that spearheaded legislation in the United States in 2006 to change the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954 -- enabling civilian nuclear cooperation with India, lost no time in highlighting the next few steps needed to push this deal through the US Congress. ''We are delighted with the outcome of the confidence motion and now the real work begins. In terms of the timing, I am very heartened that Senator Joe Biden, the Chairman of the of the Foreign Relations Committee of the US Senate, has publicly said that he is going to fight like the devil to get this deal done in this 110th Congress. We know that the time is tight but with champions like Joe Biden behind this I am very hopeful,'' says USIBC president Ron Somers.

Will pass before Bush leaves office The Australian 7/23/08 http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24063731-2703,00.html INDIA'S crucial nuclear deal with Washington is finally set to go ahead after the country's embattled coalition Government emerged victorious early today from a make-or-break confidence vote in the parliament in New Delhi.After two days of heated debate, the 12-party coalition survived a massive onslaught by combined opposition forces and won a majority in the 543-seat lower house. Early numbers in electronic voting early today gave the Government 253 votes to 232 for the opposition. The finally tally was awaited after paper votes had been counted, but officials said the Government was assured of victory. MPs crowded around Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to congratulate him after a day of chaos, during which millions of rupees were tossed on to the floor of parliament amid allegations that the Government had attempted to bribe MPs to get extra votes. There were tumultuous scenes as government MPs celebrated by throwing their order papers in the air and taunting their opponents who had believed they could bring down the Government on an issue regarded as one of the most crucial to confront the nation in the 62 years since it gained independence. The deal allows India, which has nuclear weapons and refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, to be treated as a special case on condition it separates its civil and military programs and allows some UN inspections. The Government says it would help to ease the chronic energy shortage in India. Opponents say it would give the US too much control over Indian foreign policy and the military nuclear program. Government officials argued that the country's 1.1 billion people badly needed alternative sources of energy to avert an impending fuel crunch. The victory represents a major win for Dr Singh, the architect of the deal he signed with US President George W. Bush in 2005. It also represents a major foreign policy win for the Bush administration. The deal can now be hurried through to its next stages, with agreements being negotiated with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group. Australia is expected to play a key role in relation to uranium supplies. Officials in New Delhi and Washington said immediately after the vote that everything possible would be done to try to get the final draft of the agreement passed by the US before the Bush administration left office.

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AT DA Spending turn – our economy advantage turns the internal link to your impact Spending high now, economy jacked now, deficit high now, economy resilient. Reuters, 7/28/08 http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSWAT00985720080728 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Bush administration on Monday cut its budget deficit forecast for the current year but expanded it to a record $482 billion for 2009 as the weakening U.S. economy slows revenues and spending remains high. The White House said the budget shortfall for fiscal 2008, which ends September 30, will likely come in at around $389 billion, below its $410 billion estimate released in February, because receipts were holding up better than expected. However, due to tax rebates, overall receipts will still be below last year The White House lowered its forecast for 2008 economic growth to 1.2 percent, measured fourth quarter over fourth quarter, from 2.7 percent previously, putting it in line with private sector projections. But the administration said growth looked set to rebound to 2.9 percent next year and 3.5 percent in 2010, stronger than many private economists expect The White House said its projections portray an economy that is fundamentally resilient, with inflation controlled. "If food and energy prices stabilize as expected, the inflation rate should decline," the White House said.

Spending high now- reckless policies, Iraq and Afghanistan. CNN, 7/28/08 http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/07/28/2009.deficit/?iref=mpstoryview The Bush administration has spent heavily on the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and faces a large budget shortfall in tax revenue because of Bush's tax cuts and a souring economy. A Democratic point man on the budget, Sen. Kent Conrad of North Dakota, blasted the administration for its "reckless fiscal policies," blaming the president's tax cuts for driving the government into deficit and saying Bush "will be remembered as the most fiscally irresponsible president in our nation's history." Conrad, who chairs the Senate's budget committee, accused the president of "squandering" the deficit he inherited from President Bill Clinton and said the increased debt the government has taken on to cover the deficit has undermined the value of the dollar and hurt the overall economy. "If they gave out Olympic medals for fiscal irresponsibility, President Bush would take the gold, silver and bronze," Conrad said. "With his eight years in office, he will have had the five highest deficits ever recorded. And the highest of those deficits is now projected to come in 2009, as he leaves office." But the senior administration official says the budgetary problems stem from what is believed to be inadequate defense, intelligence and homeland security resources that were handed down from Clinton.

Biggest deficit ever projected- war costs and economic slowdowns Washington Post, 7/28/09 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2008/07/28/AR2008072800953.html?hpid=topnews The federal budget deficit will surge to nearly $490 billion next fiscal year, a record dollar amount, driven by continuing war costs and an economic slowdown that is not likely to turn around fast, according to the Office of Management and Budget. After three successive years of decline, this year's deficit will jump dramatically as well. That is likely to scramble the plans of the next president, regardless of which candidate prevails. Either Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama will enter the White House in a tide of red ink.

Spending high now- Iraq, Medicaid, transportation grants, vetrans’ benefits USA Today, 7/28/08 http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080728/NEWS07/807280333 The budget update shows this year's deficit headed under $400 billion, at least $10 billion less than projected, according to the two officials. That's partly because tax revenues held up despite the weaker economy.Curbing the deficit will fall to Bush's successor and the next Congress. The task will follow tax cuts and major spending initiatives such as the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, transportation grants, Medicare prescription drug coverage and expanded veterans' education benefits.

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AT DA Business Confidence Fears of US recession, Midwest Flooding, Auto Industry decline and increased food prices. Business First 6-30 http://www.bizjournals.com/louisville/stories/2008/06/30/daily13.html National City Corp. said Monday that its Business Confidence Index declined to an all-time low of 57.8 as respondents expressed concerns about the ramifications of Midwest flooding and the continued struggles of the U.S. automotive industry. National City (NYSE: NCC) contacted business managers in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and asked them two questions: Would you describe the current economic outlook for your specific business/industry as very poor, poor, fair, good or very good; and Do you plan to reduce, maintain or increase the size of your work force in the coming 12 months? Business outlook and hiring plans indices are calculated by adding the percentage of total positive responses and half of the neutral responses. The composite index is calculated by averaging the outlook and hiring plans indices. Respondents contacted in June said they feared ripple effects of recent Midwestern flooding, including higher food prices.

Increasing Costs- health care and energy The Economist 7-24 ("Which way will capital vote?" 2008, http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/11794062/c_11789441?f=home_todayinfinance) What they do know is that their members are gloomy. According to American Management Services, a consultancy, 81% of small-business owners think the economy is in recession. The National Federation of Independent Business, a lobby group, says small-business confidence is at its lowest ebb in three decades. The big worry is inflation, especially of health-care and energy costs. Health-insurance costs for small businesses have risen by 130% since 1999, causing wages to stagnate and many firms to restrict or eliminate coverage. Mr McCain wants to curb costs by allowing more competition, and to give tax breaks for health insurance to individuals rather than companies. Mr Obama promises subsidies to make coverage nearly universal and to tax big firms that don't cover their employees. Both plans have drawbacks, says Bruce Josten of the Chamber of Commerce. Few people will buy individual insurance policies under Mr McCain's plan, he predicts, and Mr Obama's does not do enough to restrain costs.