Web 2.0 Presentation By Ed Yourdon

Web 2.0 Ed Yourdon and collaborators worldwide email: [email protected] Website: www.yourdon.com Blog: www.yourdonreport.com

version 47 green stuff = “internal” links to other pages in this document blue stuff = “external” links -- i.e., URLs to pages on the Internet

Publication Details, and General Disclaimer This “Web 2.0” GoogleDocs presentation is an open-content collaborative document. Anyone with an Internet connection and World Wide Web browser may view and/or alter its content -- for better or worse -- within the constraints of Google’s access mechanisms for such documents. Please be advised that nothing in this document has necessarily been reviewed by Ed Yourdon ("Ed"); the theories and business practices expressed by the “Web 2.0” document are not necessarily his. This isn't to say you won't find valuable and accurate information herein; however, Ed cannot summarily guarantee the validity of this “Web 2.0” document. The content of any given page may recently have been changed, dumbed-down, or other wise edited by someone whose opinion does not correspond to Ed’s original “Web 2.0” material (or any subsequent drafts). Neither Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, nor anyone else connected with this “Web 2.0” document, can in any way whatsoever be held responsible for the appearance of any inaccurate information, or for your use of the information contained in or linked from this document. You are being granted a limited license to copy anything from this document; it does not create or imply any contractual or extracontractual liability on the part of Ed, nor any of the contributors, collaborators, or viewers of this material. There is no agreement or understanding bet ween you and Ed regarding your use or modification of this information beyond the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL); neither is Ed responsible should someone change, edit, modify, or remove any information that you may post on this “Web 2.0” document. Any of the trademarks, ser vice marks, collective marks, design rights, personality rights, or similar rights that are mentioned, used, or cited in this “Web 2.0” document are the property of their respective owners. Their use here does not imply that you may use them for any purpose other than for the same or similar informational use -- as recognized under the GFDL licensing scheme. Unless other wise stated, Ed and this “Web 2.0” document are neither endorsed by nor affiliated with any of the holders of any such rights; as such, Ed cannot grant any rights to use any other wise protected materials. Your use of any such or similar incorporated property is at your own risk. Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Topics 1. Introduction 2. Themes 3. History 4. Technology 5. Products, vendors 6. Business Issues 7. Cultural issues 8. Trends 9. Conclusions 10.References Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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1. Introduction Definitions: what is Web 2.0? Web 2.0: profound business, technological, and social changes Danger of over-hyping Lessons to learn from Web 1.0, to plan for Web 2.0

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Definitions Many people feel they don’t really understand what Web 2.0 is all about, and there are shortcomings in popular definitions My definition O’Reilly definitions Michael Wesch: “the machine is (us)ing us” • • • • •

viewed 3.4 million times as of 9/18/2007 See Wesch’s explanation of how he made the video See John Battelle’s interview with Michael Wesch See also Michael Wesch’s “Vision of Students Today” See also Michael Wesch’s YouTube video, “R/evolution,” about the transformation of paper information into digital information

Pew Report definition 24-minute video documentary definition Differences bet ween Web 1.0 and 2.0(more) Main business Web 2.0 tools (more) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ed’s definition Web 2.0 is the combination of: • •

tools and technologies

•

and social/cultural trends

business strategies (like blogging, external wikis, customer participation)

which drive the individual creation and sharing of content on the Internet Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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O’Reilly definitions Compact definition Long definition New (Oct 2007) definition: “intelligence in the back end” Hierarchy of Web 2.0-ness

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Main Web 2.0 tools Blogs Wikis Podcasts RSS Collaborative content tagging Social net working (see IBM’s activities in this area!) Mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Intro: Business Changes Empowering employees • •

Let them blog - internally & externally Let them collaborate with wikis

Encouraging external collaboration with wikis Long Tail phenomenon Product vs. Ser vice (MS Office vs. Google Docs; Web-based calendars, etc.) Publishing (back to main “Intro” page) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Business change: publishing Craigslist vs. classified ads (note: 30% owned by eBay) Blogs vs. newspapers Book mashups Communal authorship: my JESA wiki Communal advertisement/ commercials Communal product reviews (Amazon) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Intro: Tech Changes Perpetual beta Ajax, Ruby on Rails, and more... Web as the platform API’s facilitating mashups

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Web as the Platform Examples of Web as platform Benefits of Web as platform Risks of Web as platform

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Examples of web as platform Google Apps Virtual Ubiquity’s Buzzword (acquired by Adobe on 9/30/2007) 30 Boxes (calendar) SmartSheet: project management Zoho Spreadsheet Zoho DB database and more every day... but still at “early adopter” stage -- e.g., 1.5 million copies of PCbased “Quickbooks” from Intuit, but only 125,000 copies of online version (from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference) However, Intuit has 10 million TurboTax customers, and 50% use the Web-based version (also from 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conf) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Benefits of web platform

Easier to support increasingly common distributed workforce (which needs collaboration capability) Simpler install/infrastructure for small startup companies (6 million new businesses each year in U.S., who have no existing PC/net work infrastructure when they start) Fast installation allows business managers to ignore/ circumvent IT department (just like PC’s in 1980s!) UI often more appealing to new generation of users (e.g., college students who have never seen MS Outlook) Free (or sometimes $50/year) “Try before you buy” Updates, new versions available immediately Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Risks of web platform Security (lower priority for new, small startup companies) Privacy Compliance with other standards, etc. Connectivity: can it be used offline? Stability of small vendors Performance/features (for power users) •

Features of Google Apps/Docs are far less than Microsoft Office -- but Web-based products are usually supporting a new class of “first-time” users, who are doing things they simply couldn’t do before (e.g., 15 million of the 19 million small businesses in U.S. still use pencil and paper to do their accounting and book-keeping)

•

Compare Keynote/PDF version of this presentation with the Google Apps version

Is data “trapped”? Can it be moved to a different platform? • •

Sometimes a major problem with desktop-based PC products, to

Vendors like Google say they’re aware of the issue, and support the “philosophy” that users should be able to take their data (e.g., Google search history, Facebook “social graph” with them if they leave 15 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

Intro: social changes The public: wired (73%), but not Web 2.0 (8%) (based on a Feb-Apr 2006 sur vey, which did not include teenagers) Blogs Trust in Wikipedia Emphasis on communities “People power” Political commentary Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology usage in U.S.

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social change: blogs Latest count: 71 million blogs, 120K new blogs every day Pew sur vey of bloggers

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social Change: Microblogging Example: Twitter (100,000+ members), which provides a simple, SMS answer the question, “What are you doing now?” • • •

Started by Evan Williams, who noticed 200 people emerging from a lecture at Stanford, all picking up their cell phones to ask their friends, “What are you doing now?” Twittr messages are known as “t weets” See David Weinberger’s characterization as “continuous partial friendship”

Another example: Dopplr (private beta), which answers the simple question, “Where are you going? When will you be back?” Another example: Finland’s Jaiku Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2007 See Ross Mayfield’s blog comments See David Weinberger’s comments on importance of presence

See Forrester report estimating that 6% of American public Twitters See Scoble’s disagreement/rebuttal of Forrester estimate See Guy Kawasaki’s “How Twitter Made My Website Better” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social change: trust in Wikipedia Campaigns Wikia Essjay controversy Wikipedia article on UVA massacre WikiScanner (more on Wikis, Wikipedia later)

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social change: emphasis on communities MySpaceNation Joe Ford’s congressional campaign The Mom Net work Steve Ballmer’s comments on communities Oct 26, 2007 “Newsweek” article discusses Facebook as a mechanism for creating and energizing charitable organizations note to collaborators: please add additional relevant examples Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social change: “people power” Time magazine’s 2006 “person of the year”: you Farecast.com Farecast review

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Social change: political commentary TechPresident blog A smorgasborg of YouTube political videos 2008: the Web 2.0 election? Web 2.0 “Wisdom of the Crowd” to probe 2008 Presidential contenders Comedy Central’s Stephen Colbert out-draws Obaama’s “1,000,000 strong” campaign in 10 days. And he now has 1,000,000 supporters. Web 2.0 impact on 2006 elections Obama “1984” mashup •

3.9 million downloads, creator resigns

•

YouTube inter view with video creator

Hilary Clinton on Second Life George Bush “Sunday, Bloody Sunday” mashup Saturday Nite Live’s spoof of George Bush on global warming Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Intro: danger of over-hyping “Old ideas are completely obsolete!” “This will revolutionize the world!” “Our Web 2.0 startup will make us rich!” •

The sobering reality of the 80-20 rule

VC’s desperate to invest in the next Google •

Example: Microsoft’s Oct 2007 investment of $240 million in Facebook, creating a $15 billion valuation for the company and made its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, worth $3 billion

Startup companies with “vision,” but no revenue model • •

New business reality: low startup costs, VC’s not as important as before New exit strategy: no IPO, but get acquired by Google

Web 2.0 Bullshit Generator Reality: people adapt to new things more slowly than innovators realize Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Learn Lessons from Web 1.0 to plan for Web 2.0 Business Plan Archive’s “Top Ten Lessons from the Dot-Com Meltdown” “The real learning happens at the intersection of an industry and a generation” Expect major shakeouts and consolidation Anticipate new competitors Don’t forget business fundamentals Beware over-hyping Five lessons from Financial Times Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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2. Basic themes of Web 2.0 Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Reputation economy Architecture of creation vs consumption Recurring themes Related concepts Mashups Long Tail Wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Web 1.0 vs. Web 2.0 Summary of differences Web 1.0: mostly static Web pages Centralized/corporate publishers of content Single-site content Some “portals” But generally no API’s or mashups

Inadequate technology Slow bandwidth No Ajax, full-page refresh Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Reputation economy User reviews (e.g., Amazon) Naymz’s “reputation community” •

Ed’s Naymz inter view

Tag clouds StumbleUpon •

TechCrunch review of StumbleUpon

Google’s New Orleans Controversy Wikipedia: covert alterations -> WikiScanner Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Tag Clouds Definition Flickr tag cloud Technorati tag cloud Del.icio.us tag cloud TagCloud.com Selecting RSS feeds by tag Critical article Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Architecture of creation vs. consumption

PC + laser printer made everyone a “publisher” Now it’s blogs and wikis (state of the blogosphere) Reasons for “personal publishing” • • • • • •

Dreams of fame & riches Desire to “connect” Passion for subject matter Ego Reputation Too much time on their hands (an ongoing trend!)

Next step: “democratizing” innovation (aka “usercentered innovation”) (back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Recurring themes for Web 2.0 Themes from my Aug 2006 visit to Web 2.0 vendors in Silicon Valley (blog posting) Enterprise 2.0 Building Blocks: SLATES; (see also the article, “Enterprise 2.0: the dawn of emergent collaboration” from MIT Sloan Review) Empower individual customers, employees, citizens (back to “basic themes of Web 2.0”) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Mashups Definition: blending content from > one source Examples Web sites Tech Beat: Blogs on Mashups Programmable Web: list of mashups Wiki for Web Services and Open API’s

Business model for mashups Tools Yahoo Pipes (most processing done on the server) Google’s MyMaps Microsoft’s PopFly (most processing done on the client) Note to collaborators: please add more examples of tools for creating mashups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Mashup Examples Google Maps + CraigsList Housing Maps for Italy YouTube.com Podbop mapsexoffenders.com Earth Sandwich Middle East news + blogs 275 Flickr Mashups Google Maps mashup showing location of Oct 2007 wildfires in Califiornia Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Long Tail Basic concept History Chris Anderson’s PopTech 2006 PPT slides Examples Advice & Recommendations

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Long Tail Concepts Selling more and more to fewer and fewer Pareto’s Principle (80-20) less relevant today Relationship to Web 2.0 •

Shift from the monopoly of the “big hits” favors tiny publishers and creators of Web content

•

Encourages “niche” producers to collaborate with “aggregators” like Amazon, iTunes, NetFlix, etc.

•

Sometimes a niche product can become an unexpected “blockbuster” through viral marketing, word of mouth

video: “Day of the Long Tail” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Long Tail History Scarcity favors the 80-20 rule •

Production

•

Inventory

•

Shelf-space

•

Distribution

Bits on the Internet changes the rules •

Production

•

Inventory

•

Shelf-space

•

Distribution

•

Search engines: without Google, there would be no Long Tail!

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Long Tail Examples Amazon (98% of 100,000) •

Tim O’Reilly’s critique of Amazon long-tail stats

iTunes (100% of 5 million) NetFlix (95% of 55,000 movies) Lego Soft ware development JotSpot Powerpoint presentation Part 2 of Powerpoint presentation General info on JotSpot (recently acquired by Google)

Website design Death of blockbuster drugs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Long Tail Advice Two imperatives • •

Make everything available Help me find it

Nine rules (summarized from longer discussion in Chapter 14 of “The Long Tail”) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Move inventory to the edge -- keep a virtual inventory, and transfer costs to your suppliers Let customers do the work -- “crowdsourcing” to let customer reviews rank your books, write your product reviews, etc -- because “collectively, customers have virtually unlimited time and energy.” One distribution method doesn’t fit all -- think niche One product doesn’t fit all -- think niche One price doesn’t fit all -- think niche Share information -- which requires giving up control Think “and” not “or” (Coke) Trust the market to do your job -- a variation on #2 above Understand the power of the free -- combine premium pricing and a free version of what you provide; rely on an advertising-supported model.

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wikis Concepts History Examples Tools Benefits Risks Implications Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki concepts Rapid iteration of documents, designs, reports, etc. Widespread collaboration -- either inside or outside an organizational boundary Relationship to Web 2.0? Relationship to Open Source development? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki History Ward Cunningham’s work Pattern language work, using Hypercard WikiWikiWeb, 1995

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Examples List of largest wikis Wikipedia (more) Proctor & Gamble “Connect & Develop” (more) European pharma “dark blog” case study Eli Lilly “Innocentive” initiative (more) Social Text Source Forge (open source) iStock Photo (more) My JESA “structured analysis” wiki Semi-private university wikis This Web 2.0 Google Docs presentation! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wikipedia

Har vard Business School case study 2-millionth English-language article published on 09/12/2007 The 1-percent rule: 2% of Wikipedia editors generate 60% of its content. Wikipedia says there are 5,682,446 Wikipedians; incredibly detailed statistics about demographics and growth of Wikipedians are available here (e.g., only 75,716 Wikipedians made 5 or more contributions in Sept 2007). According to Nov 2007 CACM article “What Motivates Wikipedians?”, the top motivators for Wikipedians are “fun” and “ideology” e.g., they strongly agree with “Writing/editing in Wikipedia is fun,” and “I think information should be free.” Lowest motivators were “social” (“People I’m close to want me to write/edit in Wikipedia”) and “career” (“I can make new contacts that might help my business or career.”

Additional Wikipedia statistics are available here; for example, Wikipedia grew by more than 30 million words in July, 2006. Growth may be slowing; see this Oct 11, 2007TechCrunch article and this Wikipedia page One risk of Wikipedia: “truth by consensus” (aka “wikiality” WikiScanner

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Mary Meeker on Wikipedia

from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 32 of presentation Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Proctor & Gamble 8,000 researchers 600 partners productivity up 60% 35% of innovations from outside R&D costs dropped from 4.8% of sales, down to 3.4% of sales Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Eli Lilly Innocentive 30 companies involved 90,000(!) scientists Rewards up to $100,000

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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iStock Photo

Sells photos for $1-5, much cheaper than traditional commercial sources Pays royalties to amateur photographers Licensed 10 million images in 2006 Purchased by Getty Images for $50 million But may be rendered irrelevant by (free) Flickr ... • • • •

My Flickr page, for whatever it’s worth... 15.4 million registered users 38 million visitors/month 1.38 billion photographs

... or Photobucket • • •

acquired by Fox Media in July, 2007 has 35 million visitors/month has 3.636 billion images as of 09/24/2007

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki Tools Twiki (free) MediaWiki pbWiki JotSpot (recently acquired by Google) • •

Ed’s report on JotSpot JotSpot 2.0

Wikipatterns Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki Benefits

New workforce: “crowdsourcing” (“people power”) Some are happy with modest, part-time income •

Google Answers: $2.50 payments

Hobbyists often happy to work for free • • • •

Time magazine article: “Getting Rich on Those Who Work for Free” Flickr, and other sources of artistic/IP contributions “raw” resources: grid computing, SETI-at-home Yahoo Answers: 10 million free answers

Access “loyal” resources • • •

Retirees Alumni Customers

Generate new ideas, products more quickly Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki Risks Security Privacy Censorship issues IP ownership Control Anarchy Credibility of information •

The Essjay Controversy

•

David Weinberger’s assessment of Wikipedia credibility

•

Wikipedia competitor: Citizendium

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Wiki implications Consider inhouse wiki as a learning experience Visit/learn about other successful wiki initiatives Consider limited “external” collaboration wiki as a pilot project Remember: tools are just enablers; cultural issues are more important Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Web 2.0 History Pre-History • • • • • • • • •

Initial rejection of Web 2.0 concepts Amazon “long tail” in 1995 eBay “long tail” in 1995 WikiWikiWeb in 1995 Yahoo (various Web 2.0 concepts) in 1996 Google advertising (long tail), 2000 Wikipedia in 2001 iTunes (long tail) in 2001 Early book with “Web 2.0” title, 2002

Development of enabling technologies Social/cultural influences • •

Clue Train Manifesto User-generated content

First Web 2.0 conference in 2004 “Buzz” began in 2005 Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Web 2.0 Technology Ajax Ruby on Rails API’s Tools/IDE’s Other enabling technology Design guidelines, best practices Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology - Ajax Basic concept Architectural guidelines Examples Ajaxifying legacy apps Ajax-related web sites

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ajax - basic concept Asynchronous Javascript & XML Standards-based presentation using XHTML and CSS Dynamic display and interaction using DOM Data interchan ge using XML and XSLR Ansynchronous data retrieval using XML HttpRequest or XMLHTTP (from Microsoft) Javascript binding everything together

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ajax: architectural guidelines Small server-side events, no full-page refresh Asynchronous activity: users continue working after invoking a request “onAnything”: any user event can cause an asynchronous event

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ajax: examples Flickr Meebo Nowsy - an Ajax home page All of the Zoho products Timeline - Ajax widget for visualizing time-based events Microsoft releases beta AJAX note to collaborators: please add more important Ajax examples, as appropriate Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ajaxifying legacy apps “Ajax spurs rebirth for desktop apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 Writely -- now Google Docs Google spreadsheets -- now Google Docs Many other companies are now doing this, though it’s not always easy to provide a cost-benefit justification Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ajax Web sites Ajax matters Ajaxian Ajax magazine Sites using Ajax

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology - Ruby on Rails Basic concepts Examples Websites Tools, etc.

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ruby on Rails: basic concepts Open-source web application framework written in Ruby Closely follows the Model-View-Controller (MVC) architecture originally developed for Smalltalk Strives for simplicity and allowing real-world applications to be developed in less code (and thus less effort/time) than other frameworks -- and with a minimum of configuration Ruby programming language allows for extensive metaprogramming, which Rails makes great use of Rails architecture strongly favors database use, and an RDBMS system is recommended for data storage Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ruby on Rails: examples Twitter (this isn’t the main Twitter website) Companies A-M Companies N-Z

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ruby on Rails: Websites RubyOnRails.org Wiki site SourceForge AjaxOnRails

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Ruby on Rails: Tools, etc. Integration with Visual Studio note to collaborators: need more examples of RubyOnRails tools

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology - API’s Google • •

Google Maps API Google AJAX search API

Yahoo •

Yahoo search API

AOL •

AIM API’s

Dapper’s API ser vice (Israeli-based, has a partnership with Microsoft) Twitter API Facebook API note to collaborators: need more examples of API’s for Web 2.0 development

•

what about Amazon, iTunes, eBay, etc.?

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology: tools/IDE’s Primary objective: fast and flexible development, not reuse Aptana note to collaborators: need more examples of general tools and IDE’s for Web 2.0 development

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology - other enabling technologies XML Web ser vices: net work as platform •

(see “Microsoft declares end of PC era”)

Django: a high-level Python Web framework RSS Adobe Flex Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Technology - Design guidelines, best practices

Forthcoming book: “Web 2.0 Design Patterns” Agile development •

Scott Rosenberg’s dissent: 5-year Web 2.0 design cycle

Scaling issues: must architect for rapid growth • • • • •

example: iLike (Facebook app) launched during holiday weekend in May Acquired first 10,000 users in first 12 hours of business Next 10,000 users acquired in following 3 hours Next 10,000 users acquired in following 2 hours Developers filled up 40 servers after one day, had to beg and borrow additional servers during remainder of holiday weekend...

UI issues Problems with non-integrated Web 2.0 apps Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Products/Vendors Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Big vendors Top 25 UK vendors Top Italian Web apps Web apps around the world Social Net working Services Other startups, small vendors A visual display of all Web 2.0 vendors Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Aspects of Web 2.0 usage Use of Web 2.0 technologies One perspective: blogs, wikis, podcasts, RSS, social net works, content tags Providing Web 2.0 products/ser vices People power Use of mashups Use of Long Tail concept Emerging theme: let users (customers) take their data with them when/if they leave Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Big Vendors Google Yahoo Microsoft IBM Apple Cisco Tim O’Reilly: SAP as a Web 2.0 vendor? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Google The Economist: “Who’s Afraid of Google?” Google’s Master Plan (just kidding!) My visit to Google Mashups: Google’s MyMaps Long Tail: statistics on advertising People Power: Google Pages Google Apps Google Powerpoint Google Notebook (in 17 languages!) New stuff: Google3D

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Yahoo Relationship with JotSpot Owns Flickr, among many other assets Yahoo buys Zimbra Yahoo Pipes

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Microsoft

Social Net works: investment in Facebook Net work as Platform: Windows Office Live (see Mary Jo Foley’s Sep 30, 2007 summary) Blogging tool: Windows Live Writer •

Computer world review

Support for Ajax Mashups • • •

Strategy MapCruncher PopFly

Long Tail -- XBox Live Arcade Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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IBM Summary of Web 2.0 initiatives Mashup strategy Support for Ruby on Rails Support for Ajax Lotus Notes V8 IBM acquires Web conferencing ser vice provider Blog: “Will IBM compete with Facebook/Web 2.0?” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Apple Long Tail: iTunes People Power: iWeb Mashups: rumor of iPhoto-GoogleMap mashup (which Flickr already has!) Use of Web 2.0 technologies: Ajax (e.g., Apple’s .Mac web-mail) Innovative UI: iPhone, iPod Touch Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Cisco

Cisco Buys Five Across Cisco Buys Webex

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Products/vendors: Social Net working Services YouTube: 100 million videos/day

• • •

John Dvorak’s analysis of YouTube success factors Acquired by Google on Oct 9, 2006 Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its univ. lectures on YouTube MySpace, FaceBook, LinkedIn, etc. A new example, which focuses on “knowledge net working”: Twine, announced at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit (See Nicholas Carr’s Oct 19, 2007 blog posting about this). “New Yorker” article: in-person net working in a Facebook world SecondLife Statistic: 300 social net working startups in last t wo years Statistic: 100,000 Ning “micro” social net works (see Ning) The 1% rule: 1% of a social site’s visitors create most content, and 10% “synthesize” the content, by interacting with it Top 20 social net works, ranked Now used heavily by middle-aged audiences

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Growth of Social Net working Strong Web 2.0 Metrics –

The Times They are a-Changin’ – Hello Social Networking Alexa Global Traffic Rankings 2005 (1)

2007 (2)

Rank

Web site

Rank

Web site

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

yahoo.com msn.com google.com ebay.com amazon.com microsoft.com myspace.com google.co.uk aol.com go.com

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

yahoo.com google.com msn.com youtube.com live.com myspace.com facebook.com orkut.com wikipedia.org hi5.com

Traffic rank is based on three months of aggregated historical traffic data from Alexa Toolbar users and is a combined measure of page views / users (geometric mean of the two quantities averaged over time).

(1) Rankings as of 12/31/05, excludes Microsoft Passport; (2) Rankings as of 10/15/07 Source: Alexa Global Traffic Rankings, Morgan Stanley Research

30

from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 30 of presentation Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Mary Meeker on Facebook

from Mary Meeker, 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference, page 37 of presentation See also “Microsoft to Pay $240 Million for Stake in Facebook,” from Oct 24, 2007 issue of “New York Times” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Other startups, small vendors

Digg (more) 37 Signals’ HighRise CRM Zoho CRM Scoble’s review of SmartSheet Naymz NetSuite’s Ajax-based interactive dashboards Web 2.0 company name generator (amusing) The future of web startups Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Digg

Interview with Digg’s Kevin Rose Ed’s report on Digg Digg Swarm Digg Stack Digg BigSpy Digg Arc Mary Meeker says (in her 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference presentation): 10 million unique visitors, +252% Y/Y Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Business Issues Basic issues Reactions and trends in large companies Web 2.0 in government Recommended strategies for “traditional” companies Strategies for startup companies Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Business: basic issues Strategic •

Use Web 2.0 (including related concepts like Long Tail) to find new products, ser vices, markets

•

Use Web 2.0 to increase revenue, dramatically reduce costs

•

Use Web 2.0 to empower individual customers, employees -- and outsiders like retirees, alumni, and others

Tactical •

Encourage collaboration with wikis

•

Encourage communication with blogs; (for example, see Delta Airlines’ corporate blog, highlighted in the October 2007 copy of their airline magazine)

•

Improve UI of web-based products and services with AJAX, etc.

•

Use new tools like Ruby on Rails to build Web 2.0 products, services more quickly

Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Reactions and trends in large companies

Technology adoption cycle “CIO” prediction for 2007: “IT reluctantly embraces Web 2.0” Fall 2007 “CIO Magazine” survey on personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s (see chart, next page) Expect conser vative reaction from CIO’s Two views of Web 2.0 use in business for 2007 “IT Can’t Stop Web 2.0” Knowledge Worker 2.0 Sun’s endorsement of CEO blogging High-level blogging at Intel “Dark blogs” Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs, 10,000 internal blogs •

note to collaborators: do you know of any articles or blog postings to confirm this statistic? I’ve only heard this verbally, from a Microsoft presenter, at a Web 2.0 conference in 2006

WebWorkerDaily: acknowledging lifestyle of distributed workers IBM comments on collaboration and business-oriented social net works CEO reaction to social media Social net working as a business tool Ed’s notes on corporate blogging here, and here; sample corporate blogging policies here and here Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Personal Web 2.0 usage by CIO’s

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Technology adoption cycle Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Time of adoption strategic objective

value added

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cost displacement/avoidance

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Web 2.0 in government One basic strategy: shift control and resources for services, information, and expression of ideas/opinions to citizens Tara Hunt’s 170-slide “Government Next” presentation Travel delays (clevercommute.com), parking information Saving democracy with Web 2.0 Hastily Formed Net works (HFN’s) (see Luis Suarez’s blog posting about using Twitter and microblogs in emergencies) Health-related initiatives: see Marissa Mayer’s description at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference of what Google is doing with Google Health US Federal Government Web 2.0 Nor wegian Government Web 2.0 Tim O’Reilly on government’s use of Web 2.0 Section 508 compliance issues U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s use of Web 2.0 A-Space IBM on governmental blogging Poll: is the government ready for Web 2.0? Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Recommended strategies for traditional companies Developing an enterprise Web 2.0 strategy A Microsoft perspective on business opportunities for Web 2.0 SWOT analysis Pilot projects IBM’s Luis Suarez on “making the business case for social computing” Skunk works Acquisitions Case study: $279 Forrester report on Web 2.0 implementation at Northwestern Insurance; Yahoo summary of the report Two more case studies on introducing Web 2.0 into the corporate environment, on the Enterprise Web 2.0 website Case study of SAP introducing social net works into its own corporate environment Heed advice for avoiding dot-bomb 2.0 Business model for mashups

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Recommended strategies: SWOT analysis Opportunities • • • • •

New products, services New markets, new customers (Long Tail) Greater customer loyalty Greater employee loyalty Faster time, lower cost for R&D, product development

Threats • •

New competitors whose existence you don’t even know about

• • •

Loss of reputation (e.g., from customer blogs)

More effective competition from competitors who are enjoying the benefits oppportunities summarized above Security problems caused by blending of “personal” and corporate IT lives Risk of malware

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Strategies for startups Scobleizer’s advice Brad Feld’s advice about VC economics for Web 2.0 companies

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Cultural Issues

People power

Generational trends Open, sharable content/interface •

Hook into Google, Yahoo, Amazon, etc.

•

Look for ways to “open up” your own company’s intellectual/information assets

“Out ward bound” collaboration: retirees, alumni, hobbyists Long Tail impact Perpetual beta environment Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Cultural Issues: people power Customers Employees Marketplace Citizens

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People power: customers

Let them help design new products Let them help suggest ads/marketing • • • • • • •

current.com’s Joel Hyatt says customers prefer them 9-to-1 over traditional commercials Cost is zero, as compared to $1 million for traditional commercial kayak.com user ads Chevy Tahoe user commercial fan-made iPhone commercial (see also Nick Haley’s iPod Touch commercial, which Apple picked up, and broadcast during the World Series games on Oct 27-28, 2007) see current.com for a more ambitious initiative in this area for user-generated content Another example: 98% of content on eBay is user-generated (from Meg Whitman at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference)

Let them provide feedback/commentary on products/ser vices Let them help other customers with support Sometimes they know more than the vendor Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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People power: employees Let them blog behind the firewall, if not openly and publicly Remember: Microsoft has 3,000 external blogs and 10,000 internal blogs Example: CEO of Sun Microsystems blogs Example: Michael Chertoff, head of U.S. Homeland Security, blogs (eek!) Example: UN policy - permission required for writing books, but not posting blogs! Non-technical example at Google: new products bubble up from the bottom of organization Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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People power: marketplace Viral marketing Viral dissemination of good news and bad news •

AOL cancellation example

•

Comcast customer service visit

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People power: citizens Decreased dependence on “authoritative” source of news/content Political commentary •

“Daily Show” commentary on Viacom-Google billion dollar lawsuit

•

Philippine activists using YouTube to spread word about political protest issues

•

Mashup of George Bush and U2’s “Sunday, Bloody Sunday”

Products/ser vices get adapted in unexpected ways •

New York Times: CraigsList used by prostitutes

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Cultural Issues: Generational trends Demographics of bloggers Rise of the “silver surfers” Remember: senior management is 2-3 generations older than today’s Web 2.0sav vy population What Web 2.0 will mean for the next generation of the workforce Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Cultural issues: Long Tail Impact Stop focusing entirely on “big hits” Look for ways to create/nourish a “long tail” of products/ser vices Often represents a huge cultural change for the business people (e.g., R&D, product planning, marketing, etc.) whose job always assumed emphasizing the big hits and ignoring almost everything else Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Cultural issues: perpetual beta concept “Good enough” culture Weekly releases of new downloadable updates/ enhancements -- versus annual releases of new products Example: Google mail (gmail) is still listed as a “beta” product, yet millions are using it Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends Caveat: predicting the future is hard And there is resistance to “paradigm shifts” Basic point: today’s R&D is next decade’s “mainstream” Gartner’s view of Web 2.0 trends Kevin Kelly’s view of “next web” Morgan Stanley 2007 Internet trends Web 3.0 Technical trends Business trends Social/cultural trends

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Resistance to paradigm shifts Disruptive technologies often threaten the established scientific, governmental, religious, social, cultural norms This has been true for centuries, if not longer But revolutionaries often forget: “you tend to become what you disrupt” (Meg Whitman) Typical examples in Web 2.0 world • • • •

resistance to user-generated content resistance to policy of allowing employees to blog about their work rejection of web-based products as “too light weight” rejection of Facebook applications by “Wall Street Journal” technology journalist Kara Swisher as “trivial” and “frivolous”

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Trends: predicting the future is hard! Fubini’s Law People least likely to anticipate how new technology will be applied: inventors of the new technology! Examples of inaccurate predictions

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Examples of inaccurate predictions In 1895, British Postmaster General Arnold Morley said, “Gas and water are necessities for every inhabitant of the Country. Telephones are not and never will be. It is no use trying to persuade ourselves that the use of the telephone could be enjoyed by the large masses of people in their daily life.” (see “Public Ownership and the Telephone in Great Britain,” Chapter VIII, p. 117) In 1903, soon after the first Wright Brothers flight, Rudyard Kipling predicted that airpseeds would reach only 300 mph by the year 2000. In 1927, J.B.S. Haldane predicted that the first landing on Mars would not take place for 10 million years. In 1943, IBM Chairman Thomas Watson may have said, “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” (see this Wikipedia article for discussion of alleged comment.) In 1945, FDR’s naval aide, Admiral William Leahy, said about the atomic bomb, “That is the biggest fool thing we have ever done ... the bomb will never go off, and I speak as an expert in explosives.” In 1949, “Popular Mechanics,” forecasting the relentless march of science, wrote “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” In 1977, DEC founder/CEO Ken Olsen remarked at a World Future Society conference that “There is no reason why anyone would want a computer in their home.” In 1981, an obscure computer geek named Bill Gates allegedly said, “640K bytes ought to be enough for anybody.” (But see this article for Gates’ denial that he ever said such a thing.) Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends: today’s R&D is tomorrow’s “mainstream Some of it is secret Some of it is ignored, dismissed, rejected, or laughed at And some is being used by “pre-early adopters”

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Web 3.0 New York Times article on Web 3.0 “What to Expect from Web 3.0” Mass Market becomes Long Tail List of cool Web 3.0 apps Tim Berners-Lee: Web 3.0 = “semantic Web” Semantic Web = end of Google? Freebase: Wikipedia + Open Directory (see Nicholas Carr’s blog posting about Freebase) A definition of Web 3.0 from Jason Calcanis, and a rebuttal from Tim O’Reilly Today’s world: we find content, but we often type the wrong search term. Tomorrow’s world: content finds us Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends: technical Moore’s Law New user interface (UI) paradigms Nicholas Carr’s vision of the future of personal computing: a marriage bet ween Google’s “cloud” computing and Apple’s UI Death of the PC? •

Would a typical teenager prefer a new smart-phone, or a new PC?

•

Rise of the thin-client device

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Trends, technical: Moore’s Law

10 years = 6.67 doublings = 101.6x improvement over today’s technology Pervasive (ubiquitous) computing: today’s $100 computer becomes next decade’s $1 computer Similar advances in speed, storage, bandwidth, footprint Computers exceed human intelligence? Embedded computing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends, technical: ubiquitous computing Everyware: the dawning age of ubiquitous computing The $100 laptop •

OLPC site

•

“Buy a Laptop for a Child, Get Another Laptop Free”

•

David Pogue’s review of OLPC, in the 10/04/2007 “New York Times”

IEEE special issue on per vasive computing Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends, technical: embedded computing RFID Everything has an IP address Ambient devices The bionic woman/man?

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Trends: business Web 2.0 will put some Web 1.0 companies out of business Death of Microsoft? Appearance of next Google? Decreased relevance of venture capitalists? Boundary bet ween customers and companies blurs Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends: social/cultural Impact of a new generation of tech-sav vy users Next 5 billion Internet users Boundary bet ween government and citizens blur Current behavior: Web data entered by humans. New behavior: Web data automatically entered by devices (Flickr) Revenge by gadget Blurring of (some) political boundaries • •

Net work Nations MySpace is now 11th largest country in the world

Impact on education Blurring of “real life” and “virtual life” Video: “Shift Happens” Interesting trends: “Did You Know?” and “Did You Know? 2.0” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends: a new generation of tech-sav vy users 91% of mobile phone users keep their phone within one meter 24 hours a day, 7 days a week (from Mary Meeker’s presentation, at 2007 Web 2.0 Summit conference) “What Does Generation Y Want?” Growing Up Digital: the rise of the Net generation “Google, a Girl, and the Coming Apocalypse” Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Trends: impact on education See Michael Wesch’s video, “Vision of Students Today,” about the impact of Web 2.0 on the educational field. Banning Wikipedia for research papers A relevant statistic from “Wired” article: 30% of young people don’t even know their own phone number (and many don’t carry watches any more) Oct 3, 2007: UC Berkeley announces it will publish its univ. lectures on YouTube Should children learn to operate in society/schools without Google? Columbia Center for New Media Teaching & Learning Crowdsourcing Readings and Resources Top Web Tools for Students Student contributions to wikis Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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Conclusions Assume Web 2.0 is “real,” even if over-hyped •

Infoworld Oct 2006 assessment: “Bubble 2.0?”

Your objectives should be: • • • • •

Ajaxify Wikify Long-tail-ify Open up API’s for mashups Enable your people (customers, employees, citizens)

Assess your company’s response to new waves of technology • • •

Crossing the Chasm Is your company an innovator, early adopter, mainstream, or laggard? Separate technical response from business response!

Consider a pilot project • •

Guidelines for pilots: not too big, not too small; fast results; important, but not missioncritical; well-measured; used partly as a training opportunity Consider letting users drive it

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References Conferences Books Websites and blogs Articles

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References - conferences Web 2.0 Summit 2007 Web 2.0 Expo (USA) Web 2.0 Expo Berlin Web 2.0 Expo Tokyo Le Web 3/Paris Future of Web Apps/London Asia Web 2.0 conference/Singapore Other related Web 2.0 conferences PopTech (Camden, Maine) European “Next Web” 2007 (Amsterdam) AJAX World 2007 Ajaxian conferences Wikimania 2008 (venue not chosen as of 09/25/2007) Enterprise 2.0/Boston Call for participation for May 12-14, 2008 “Where 2.0” conference note to collaborators: please update these conferences with 2008 dates! note to collaborators: please add new conferences where relevant! Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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References - Books Specific Web 2.0 books • • •

Web 2.0: The Future of the Internet and Technology Economy Building Scalable Web Sites Web 2.0 Design Patterns: what entrepreneurs and information architects need to know

Ajax books • • •

Pragmatic Ajax: A Web 2.0 Primer Head Rush Ajax Ajax in Action

Ruby on Rails books • •

Ruby on Rails: up and running Agile Web Development with Rails: A pragmatic guide

Misc books • • • • • • •

Everything is Miscellaneous: the power of the new disorder Wikinomics: how mass collaboration changes everything The Wealth of Nations: how social production transforms markets and freedoms The Clue Train Manifesto The Search: how Google and its rivals rewrote the rules of business, and transformed our culture Wiki Web Collaboration The Long Tail: why the future of business is selling less and less of more and more

note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 books, as appropriate...

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References - blogs & websites my blog: The Yourdon Report O’Reilly’s: “What is Web 2.0” O’Reilly Radar blog Google Maps Mania StartupNews.com eHub - Web 2.0 startups News about startups: TechCrunch Chris Anderson’s “The Long Tail” blog Steve Borsch’s “Connecting the Dots” blog Howard Rheingold’s “Smart Mobs” blog Official Google blog Web 2.0 slides - 1,400 sites Ian Delaney’s “Twopointtouch” blog David Weinberger’s “JOHO the Blog” Stowe Boyd’s “/Message” blog Luis Suarez’s elsua: the Knowledge Management blog note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 blogs, as appropriate Published under the GNU Free Documentation License (GFDL)

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References - articles “Someone to Watch Over Me (on a Google Map),” by Theodora Stites, New York Times, Jul 9, 2006 “Small is Beautiful for Web 2.0 Startups,” by Martin LaMonia, CNET News, Feb 6, 2006 “Soft ware Out There,” by John Markoff, New York TImes, Apr 5, 2006 “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” by Jeff Howe, Wired, June 2006 “Digital Publishing Scrambles the Rules,” by Motoki Rich, New York Times, Jun 5, 2006 “Scan This Book!”, by Kevin Kelly, May 14, 2006 “The New Wisdom of the Web,” by Steven Levy and Brad Stone, Newsweek, April 3, 2006 “Microsoft Offers Range of Programs That Run Off Web, Not Hard Disk,” by Walter Mossberg, Wall Street Journal, Dec 15, 2005 “Corporate Americas Wakes Up To Web 2.0,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Jun 26, 2006 “Are CIO’s Ignoring Web 2.0 Technologies?”, by Allen Alter, CIO Insight, May 10, 2006 “Web 2.0: The New Internet ‘Boom’ Doesn’t Live Up To Its Name,” by Paul Boutin, Slate, March 29, 2006 “AJAX Spurs Web Rebirth for Desktop Apps,” by Martin LaMonica, ZDNet News, Dec 1, 2005 “Ajax: Smoother Surfing Without Microsoft,” by Daren Briscoe, Newsweek, January 30, 2006 “New Web-Based Technology Draws Applications, Investors,” by Mylene Mangalindan and Rebecca Buckman, Wall Street Journal, Nov 3, 2005 “Growing Wikipedia Revises Its ‘Anyone Can Edit’ Policy,” by Katie Hafner, New York Times, Jun 17, 2006 “Homo Conexus,” by James Fallows, Technology Review, Jul-Aug 2006 “The Internet Knows What You’ll Do Next,” by David Leonhardt, New York Times, Jul 5, 2006 “Does Every Company Need A Web 2.0 Strategy?” by Dion Hinchcliffe, ZDNet, Aug 9, 2006 “Creating Business Value With Web 2.0,” Cutter IT Journal special issue, October 2006 note to collaborators: please add important new Web 2.0 articles, as appropriate.

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