Wcdm Pandemic 2009 Gws

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Pandemic: The Second Wave

How unprepared are we Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

The take-away:  Businesses and industries are complex adaptive systems.  Businesses and industries are governed by deep laws of complexity  Plans that lack flexibility will constrain the users  Energy drives everything  Clearly defined rules for the world do not exist, therefore computing future risks can only be accomplished if one knows future uncertainty Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

There are hundreds of strains of avian influenza virus but only five – H1N1, H5N1, H7N3, H7N7, and H9N2 - are known to have caused human infections, according to the World Health Organization.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

Say, you wouldn't be that scwewy swine fwoo, would you? What We Know (Facts) What We Think We Know (Assumptions) What We Do Not Know (Speculation) What We Do Not Know that We Do Not Know (Unknown Unknownables) Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

Seasonal Flu Stats Annual flu affects between 5% and 20% of the U.S. population Approximately 200,000 people end up hospitalized Approximately 36,000 deaths result Deaths from annual flu are mainly elderly and very young Current Swine Flu is attacking young adults (approximate ages 20 – 40) Spanish Flu mortality – 2.5% 1957 Flu and 1968 Flu mortality – 0.5% Current Swine Flu – not enough data to determine mortality

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

World Population: 6,525,170,264 (approximately)

Assumption # 1: Influenza attack rate = 25% 1,631,292,566 will succumb to illness from influenza Assumption # 2: Influenza mortality rate = 3% 48,938,777 will die from influenza

ssumption # 3: Influenza survivors could suffer long term health effects 1,582,353,789 will require long term care as a result of influenza Assumption # 4: Government social services programs will be created to address long term effects of Influenza pandemic Economic effect of influenza pandemic could create a new world order and shift geo-political power Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic – The Second W

Pandemic Unpreparedness

While the cause [influenza] will remain the same, the problems that we will face in the second wave of a pandemic will not be the same problems that we faced in the first wave. Seat of the Pants?

Forward Thinking?

Process Oriented Rigidity

Situational Awareness

Old Planning Paradigms

Adaptive Behavior

Ineffective Response Modes

“Active Analysis”

Inflexibility

“Futureproofing”

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Time – How Much – How Lo

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Antivirals and Vaccine Supply: It will take 10 years to provide enough antivirals to treat 20% of the world’s population if bird flu becomes seriously endemic worldwide. H1N1 Vaccine may be available sooner – but will the supply be there? Fact:

H5N1 is already endemic in much of Asia. H1N1 is the first declared pandemic in

41 years Question: How will we know which 20% to provide antivirals for? How much of the H1N1 Vaccine will need to be produced? Question:

Where will the antiviral supplies be stored?

Question: How will we know if current vaccine will be effective against the emergent strain of influenza (mutated virus)?

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Black Swans, Randomness, Preparedness A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

The biggest single threat to business during a pandemic will be staying with a previously successful business model too long and not being able to adapt to the fluidity of situation

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

Failure to recognize:  Weak cause-an-effect linkages  Small and isolated changes can have huge effects  Complexity making the strategic challenge more urgent  How the complexity of the event can facilitate the ability of the organization to adapt if it can broaden its continuity approach

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Leadership Decision Making and Situational Awareness

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Uncontrollable Inputs

Go al

Optio ns

Choic es

Recogni ze Interact ions

Underst and Interacti ons

Influencers (positive or negative)

Take Actio n

Reali ze Goal s

Alternati ves Redefine Goals and Objectives

Observe

Orient

Decide

Act

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Leadership Decision Making and Situational Awareness

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Uncontrollable inputs result in compressed logic stream leading to higher potentialInfluencers for failure (positive or negative)

Go al

Optio ns

Choic es

Recogni ze Interact ions

Underst and Interacti ons

Compression

Take Actio n

Reali ze Goal s

Alternati ves

Observe

Redefine Goals and Objectives

Orient

Decide

Act

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

A few important factors organization’s Focus on aligning success pandemic plans with business goals and objectives Can provide quick-hit solutions Proven, experienced teams

will drive your Directly contributes to business need and competitive advantage Deliver immediate value and ROI Understand business drivers and focus efforts to support them

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

A few important factors will drive your organization’s successPinpoints skill sets when Ongoing, strategic and where needed staff allocation

“Active Analysis”

Long-term strategic alignment

Enables decision making based on best available intelligence Drives solutions that enable realignment to strengthen your position in the marketplace

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Second Wave –

Pandemic Unpreparedness

A

Speculative Look

How Flexible is Your Organization’s Plan?

Have You Built a Sandcastle, Pyramid or Cathedral? We know very little about how different highly disruptive, nonlinear changes might interact with and amplify one another

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Second Wave –

Pandemic Unpreparedness

A

Speculative Look

How Flexible is Your Organization’s Plan? Mange the unavoidable and avoid the unmanageable (planning framework) We need flexibility precisely because change is constant and flexibility provides the raw material we need to adapt to changing situations (situational awareness) All kinds of things are going to be moving and shifting much faster than in the past,

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Will your workload increase in respect to the severity of a pandemic or will it decline due to lack of demand for your product/service? Workload Factors Demand – Will your product or service be in demand?

D E M A N D

Workload at 100%

Product/Service Relation to Pandemic Cycle Staff at 100%

Product or service demand down Workforce degradation less

Staff Degradation Factors Pandemic Declared

60 – 180 days

180 – 320 days

320 – 600 days

600 – 800 days

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications America used to lead the world in education, now it depends on the world for larger and larger percentages of key skill sets to keep operating: Pandemic Unpreparedness

 In 3 or 4 years, there's expected to be a 30 to 40% shortage of technical and professional oil workers in the U.S.  As much as 80% of the oil industry workforce will be eligible for retirement in the next decade.  In the next 5 years, just as the nuclear industry hopes to launch a renaissance, up to 19,600 nuclear workers – 35% of the workforce – will reach retirement age.  The top 25 oil companies in the industry have shed more than one million employees since 1982.  According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 25% of the working population will reach retirement age by 2010, resulting in a potential worker shortage of nearly 10 million. Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

Premise for Collapse: Relationships among resources, capital, waste and production form the basis for an ecological model of collapse in which production fails to meet maintenance requirements for existing capital. Tainter – complex societies break down when increasing complexity results in negative marginal returns. Unsustainably high level of complexity. Extended process of progressive disintegration rather than a rapid shift from an unsustainable state to a sustainable state. Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Rank

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Country

1 France 2 Spain 3 United States 4 China 5 Italy 6 United Kingdom 9 Germany 10 Ukraine 11 Turkey 10 Mexico 11 Malaysia 12 Austria 13 Russia 14 Canada 15 Hong Kong 16 Poland 17 Greece

903 Million Tourists Traveled in 2007 (Top 17 Countries)

International tourist arrivals 81.9 million 59.2 56.0 54.7 43.7 million 30.7 24.4 million 23.1 million 22.2 million 21.4 million 21.0 million 20.3 million 20.2 million 18.2 million 15.8 million 15.7 14.3

million million million million

million million

Monthly

6.825 million 4.93 million 4.66 million 4.56 million 3.64 million 2.56 million 2.03 million 1.925 million 1.85 million 1.78 million 1.75 million 1.69 million 1.68 million 1.52 million 1.32 million 1.31 million 1.19 million

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

orld's busiest passenger airports

World's busiest passenger airports Annual

Monthly

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport 84,846,639 7,0 O'Hare International Airport (Chicago) 77,028,134 6,4 Heathrow Airport (London) 67,530,197 5,627,516 Haneda Airport (Tokyo) 65,810,672 5,484,227 Los Angeles International Airport 61,041,066 5,086,756 Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport 60,226,138 5,0 Paris-Charles de Gaulle Airport 56,849,567 4,737,464 Frankfurt Airport 52,810,683 4,400,890 Beijing Capital International Airport 48,654,770 4,054,564 . Denver International Airport 47,325,016 3,9 . McCarran International Airport (Las Vegas) 46,193,329 3,849,444 . Amsterdam Airport Schiphol 46,065,719 3,8 . Madrid Barajas Airport 45,501,168 3,791,764 . Hong Kong International Airport 43,857,908 3,654,826 . John F. Kennedy International Airport (New York City) 43,762,282 3,6

U.S. = 46% Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

World's busiest po

Busiest Ports By Volume 1. Singapore 2. Rotterdam, Netherlands 3. South Louisiana, U.S.A. 4. Shanghai, China 5. Hong Kong, China 6. Houston, U.S.A 7. Chiba, Japan 8. Nagoya, Japan 9. Ulsan, South Korea 10. Kwangyang, South Korea Two areas for concern Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

World's busiest po

Busiest Ports By Containers 1. Hong Kong, China 2. Singapore 3. Pusan, South Korea 4. Kaohsiung, Taiwan 5. Rotterdam, Netherlands 6. Shanghai, China 7. Los Angeles, U.S.A. 8. Long Beach, U.S.A. 9. Hamburg, Germany 10. Antwerp, Belgium

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Busiest U.S. Ports of Entry

U.S. PORT OF ENTRY (ALL MODES) OF NON-U.S. RESIDENT ARRIVALS December 2008 Year-to-Date PORTS GRAND TOTAL NEW YORK, NY MIAMI, FL LOS ANGELES, CA NEWARK, NJ SAN FRANCISCO, CA CHICAGO, IL HONOLULU, HI ATLANTA, GA AGANA, GU WASHINGTON, DC ORLANDO, FL HOUSTON, TX BOSTON, MA DETROIT, MI PHILADELPHIA, PA

TOTAL % change OVERSEAS 2008/2007 25,341,451 6% 4,255,262 3,097,120 2,345,741 1,834,483 1,422,728 1,347,963 1,314,662 1,064,096 976,620 836,176 708,337 549,496 532,013 529,948 427,212

12% 9% 2% 15% 8% 4% -10% 13% -8% 8% 20% 11% 2% 3% 26%

Rank

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

*Overseas includes all countries except Canada and Mexico Note: This is one column froma report containing 29 tables of international arrivals data. Forty ports of entryare tracked each month by world region and select countries. Release date: March 2009

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Pandemic Unpreparedness

Security Brokers, Dealers Soft Drinks 37.6% Packaged Software Pharmaceuticals Perfume, Cosmetics, Toiletries Advertising Agencies 27.3% Distilled Spirits Semiconductors Medical Instruments 21.0% Men’s, Boys’ Clothing Tires 19.5% Household Appliances Malt Beverages

Profitability of Selected U.S. Industries (Average ROIC,

Child Care Services 1992 –Day 2006) 40.9% Household Furniture 17.0% Drug Stores 16.5% 37.6% Stores Grocery 31.7% Iron, Steel Foundries 15.6% 28.6% Crackers Cookies, Wine, Brandy 13.9% 26.4% Products Bakery 21.3% Turbines Engines, Laboratory Equipment 19.5% Oil, Gas machinery Soft Drink Bottling 19.2% Mills Knitting 10.5% 19.0% Hotels 10.4% Catalog, Mail-Order Houses Airlines

Return On Invested Capital (ROIC) = Measure of profitability for strategy development. Earnings before interest and taxes divided by average invested capital less excess cash th

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17.6

16.0

15.4

13.8 13.7 13.4 12.6 11.7

5.9 5.9

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Confronting the Edge of Chaos: Continuity Strategy Implications

How Flexible is Your Organization’s Plan?

Plans are not failure proof – what will your organization do if your plan does not work exactly as it is conceived?

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Antivirals

One course of Tamiflu and/or Relenza is approximately $80. The dose of Tamiflu (for grownups) is one 75mg capsule twice a day for five days.  The dosage for kids varies from 30mg twice daily to 75mg twice daily depending on their weight. (Children that weigh more than 88lbs take the adult dose of 75mg per day). Every Tamiflu prescription must contain 10 doses.  Sometimes people don't take all 10 pills - this is not good.  If you do this, the medicine may not work well.  Your illness could come back. You must not skip any doses if you expect it to work.  Even if you feel better, you must take all 10 doses “no guarantee as yet that Tamiflu will prove effective against a pandemic strain regardless. [of Bird Flu]...”

Scripps Reports Press Release; 11/2006

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Pandemic Unpreparedness

Antivirals – Planning

Pandemic of 500 days duration: Tamiflu $80.00 per course (1 course 10 pills, 5 days of treatment) 100 courses per employee to cover each - $8,000 per employee. Pandemic of 800 days duration: Tamiflu $80.00 per course (1 course 10 pills, 5 days of treatment) 160 courses per employee to cover each - $12,800 per employee. Pandemic of 90 days duration: Tamiflu $80.00 per course (1 course 10 pills, 5 days of treatment) 18 courses per employee to cover each - $1,440 per employee.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Other Planning Considerati

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Personal: Masks Gloves Hand Sanitizers (individual) Kleenex Tissues Antibacterial Wipes Antivirals Individual Issue Personal Thermometer Enterprise: Cleaning Supplies Decontamination Equipment/Supplies Hand Sanitizers (Restrooms, etc.) Signage in Various Languages Antivirals Bulk Supplies

What’s the cost? What’s the liability? When do you make the commitment? How long are you committed to maintaining the inventory?

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Antivirals/PPE – Plann

Antivirals/PPE are subject to: •

Confiscation by government – eminent domain for social greater good

•

Loss after distribution – misplaced, stolen and/or used otherwise

•

Black-market – price after declaration, bartered for goods/services

•

Undersupply – stockpiles insufficient for demand

•

Family member needs – distributed to family instead of taking

•

Out of date (Inventory expiration) – disposal of old inventory

•

Theft – cargo, distribution, warehouse, etc.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The financial sector is faced with solvency issues as savings and checking accounts are drawn down. Banks experience a demand for money (physical currency) that exceeds their ability to supply currency. Institutions such as the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and Asian Development Bank saw donor nations suspend their commitments of funds. Many recipient nations petition for restructuring of their loans. Consumer credit evaporates as merchants demand cash as payment for goods and services. Central banks in some countries cannot keep up with the demand for currency. Interests rates, exchange rates, stock, bond and commodity markets experienced wide swings as the worldwide economy is disrupted.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The manufacturing sector feels the impact of the pandemic, factories are forced to close due to workforce issues, in some areas quarantine, lack of raw materials availability and curtailment of imports and exports due to border closures. Firms dependent on outsourcing and parts made externally are forced to alter their operations (either reducing operations or suspending operations) creating spot shortages and displacing workers.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The service sector, comprised of volume driven firms, sees demand for services dwindle. A significant portion of the workforce is laid off as a result. Severe strains on the financial health of the service sector begin to appear as credit and debit card firms see defaults on payments due. Fraud becomes an increasingly significant issue for this sector.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The telecommunications sector continues to be under intense pressure as worldwide, people attempt to telecommute. In many countries governments exercise authority and commandeer the bulk of telecommunication services in attempts to maintain order and keep government operations functioning. Telephone exchanges in many parts of the world have degraded to sporadic service as demand far exceeds capacity.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The utility sector is under intense pressure. Brownouts in most areas of the world are normal, in part due aging infrastructure, lack of and/or disruption of fuel supplies. Distribution issues and demand shifts continue to create reliability issues. Blackouts of extended duration are beginning to affect many countries. In many areas fuel supplies are being rationed due to curtailment of deliveries. System maintenance becomes more difficult due to a lack of experienced workers and rampant illegal tapping of supply lines (electrical, gas, water, etc.). In many instances government has had to intercede to assist the utilities maintain operation, through guarantees of payment Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The insurance sector sees an upsurge in claims for medical benefits during the initial 60 days of the pandemic, causing a slowdown in payments due to volume impact. As the system is overwhelmed, the volume of claims drops dramatically as healthcare providers are unable to process claims and health insurance companies experience depletion of their workforce due to illness and other factors.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The healthcare sector continues to be overwhelmed by patient volume. Healthcare operations in some areas cease to function due to surge, lack of supplies, panic and inability to staff facilities. This continues to be a factor as people who think they have exhibited the symptoms of the influenza seek medical aid. Limited availability of critical supplies due to trade disruption and border closures continues. Hospitals are unable to contain other illnesses, such as, adenovirus, MRSA (Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus) due to lack of staff and supplies.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The energy sector sees a decline in demand, but a spike in prices for raw materials due to worker shortages; continues to see chaotic swings in prices. International and national travel is less than 30% of pre-pandemic levels. The shift from occupied offices in cities to stay at home workers has reduced the demand for transportation fuel. However, due to the disruption in international trade there continues to be erratic spikes in commodity prices.

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The agriculture sector continues to experience “commodity shock” as demand for agricultural products cannot be met as transportation sector disruption continues. As a major importer of foodstuffs the U.S. continues to suffer regional spot outages as grocery stores are forced to close due to lack of inventory. Government food warehouses are unable to alleviate the shortages due to the impact of fuel distribution problems affecting the transportation sector, shortages of personnel and transportation system closures due to quarantine and border closures. Spoilage becomes Food-constrained nations continue a factor in planning for this sector. Political tensions to have difficulty continue to build getting as food prices increase faster than the agricultural products (WFP) due toand other Non-Governmental World Food Program transportation, borderbudgets. and port Organizations’ (NGO) closures. The U.S., the world’s biggest agricultural supplier, is hampered in its ability to ship agricultural products due to a lack

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The education sector continues to remain closed as students and teachers furloughed when schools close due to health concerns, quarantine and transportation system impacts are not returning. Additionally, many schools converted to provide healthcare services during the surge are still occupied and in general decontamination is required for all facilities.

M E N

O L P

D E Y

U

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Pandemic Unpreparedness

Sector Analysis – (98 days) The high-technology sector continues to see surges in demand for access and support related to the Internet. Hampered by workforce degradation, many call center operations are being reconfigured resulting in significant disruption of services.

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Pandemic Unpreparedness

Anticipating Surpr

Whether a natural or human induced disaster, surprise is the key element in an organization’s failure to anticipate effectively.

W. Sikich - 2003 What we missed because weGeary did not plan for it, will be extremely obvious in retrospect: Have you developed a plan, policy or protocol for dealing with deaths occurring in the workplace during the pandemic?

Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)

Pandemic Unpreparedness

Geary W. Sikich Principal Logical Management Systems, Corp. www.logicalmanagement.com [email protected] or [email protected] Copyright 2009, Geary W. Sikich, All rights reserved. Nonexclusive license granted for use at the 18th World Conference on Disaster Management (WCDM)