Voters' Attitudes Toward The Budget Deficit & National Debt

HART RESEARCH A S S OC I A T E S

Voters’ Attitudes Toward The Budget Deficit & National Debt Key findings from nationwide survey conducted February 2009 for

Methodology

2



Telephone survey among 1,008 registered voters nationwide, February 18 – 23, 2009  Margin of error = ±3.1 percentage points overall, higher among subgroups



Interactive Dialogue System focus group among a diverse group of 25 participants, conducted October 27, 2008, in Cleveland, Ohio



Six focus groups conducted August – October 2008  Two groups each in Kansas City, Atlanta, Philadelphia  One group each among young male voters, young female voters, male swing voters, female swing voters, Medicare beneficiaries, rising retirees ages 55 to 64 Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Voters’ Agenda For Obama Includes Addressing Budget Problems One or Two Top Priorities on which President Obama Should Focus Get the economy back on track and people back to work

78%

Get our financial house in order/deal with growing budget deficit & nat’l debt

42%

Deal with war in Iraq/other international challenges Pass health care reform so health care is more accessible/affordable Cut taxes for the middle class 3

29% 24% 20%

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Budget Deficit/National Debt Outranks Other Threats  Very big threat to our country/future

Growing budget deficit and national debt

 Fairly big threat to our country/future

Manufacturing jobs continuing to move overseas

4

78%

57%

Country not friendly to U.S. developing nuclear weapons capabilities Schools not providing students skills/knowledge to compete in global economy Global climate change

85%

66% (58% Dem, 72% Ind, 73% GOP)

77%

58%

71%

51%

24%

41%

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Voters Split On Whether Now Is The Time To Address Budget Problems Time Frame for Dealing with Federal Budget Deficit/National Debt Must act now to address deficit/national debt; economy won’t be stable until we begin to solve problems threatening long-term health/security of U.S. economy

47% Democrats Independents Republicans

46% 50% 46%

African Americans High school/less educ Blue-collar households

62% 53% 55%

Not good time for additional sacrifices in current recession/with economic challenges, (tax increase, program cuts); address after economy turns around

43% Don’t need major steps to address deficit/national debt; had surplus not long ago, had huge deficit a few years later: these fluctuations don’t have much real impact

8%

5

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Voters Split On Basic Approach To Addressing Budget Problems To get our country’s financial situation in order, on which one or two of these areas should we concentrate? 

44%

Spending less on programs such as education, defense, and law enforcement



Increasing taxes



Making major reforms to entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security

40%

36%

32% 25%

22%

23%

28%

26%

16%

All voters 6

39%

Democrats

Independents

15%

Republicans

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Voters Split On What It Will Take To Solve Budget Problems 



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Some people say that we can adequately address our growing national debt and solve our budget problems by cutting waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending and cutting spending on the war in Iraq without also making major changes to government programs or our tax policies. Other people say that in order to adequately address our budget problems and growing national debt we have to make major structural changes to large entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid in combination with major changes to our federal tax system and other government spending, and that just cutting waste, fraud, and abuse in government spending and cutting spending on the war in Iraq is not enough.

58%

57%

44% 45%

44%

41%

37% 27%

All voters

Democrats

Independents

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Republicans

Medicaid Proposals Strongly Somewhat Support Support

8

Oppose

Cap Medicaid payments to physicians, hospitals, and other health care providers so that they can increase only at the rate of growth in the overall economy. This would have a major impact on getting our country's budget situation in order.

37%

33%

24% (11% strong)

Limit the number of people who are eligible for Medicaid by focusing on people at or near the poverty level, especially for long-term health care coverage. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order.

27%

37%

32% (14% strong)

Lower the federal share of Medicaid payments to states and turn over primary responsibility for paying for health care of low-income adults and children to the states to encourage them to be more cost conscious. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order.

22%

41%

31% (14% strong)

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Medicare Proposals Strongly Somewhat Support Support 44% 29% Cap Medicare payments to physicians, hospitals, and other health care providers so that they can increase only at the rate of growth in the overall economy. This would have a major impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. 38% 36% Reform Medicare so that it is more need-based, providing larger subsidies for low-income seniors, and smaller subsidies for seniors who make above a certain income level. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. 17% 35% Increase the Medicare payroll taxes paid by both employers and employees. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. 15% 26% Gradually increase the eligibility age for Medicare from 65 to 70 & tie future age increases to life expectancy estimates. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting country's budget situation in order. 9

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Oppose 24% (14% strong)

24% (14% strong)

46% (29% strong) 57% (40% strong)

Social Security Proposals Provide all future Social Security beneficiaries with a uniform benefit level that is designed to ensure that they will not live in poverty during retirement years. This would have a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. Make income up to $125,000 subject to Social Security taxes. This would have a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. Phase in an increase in the normal retirement age to 70 over the next two decades and tie future increases in the retirement age to life expectancy estimates. This would have at least a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. Significantly increase the Social Security payroll taxes paid by both employers and employees. This would have a moderate to major impact on getting our country's budget situation in order. Decrease annual Social Security cost of living adjustments by a small amount. This would have a moderate impact on getting country's budget in order. 10

Strongly Support 38%

Somewhat Support 34%

36%

29%

27% (16% strong)

20%

28%

48% (32% strong)

16%

34%

46% (31% strong)

11%

27%

59% (35% strong)

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Oppose 23% (11% strong)

Revenue Proposals Strongly Somewhat Support Support Enact a new national sales tax of 23% on consumer goods, which would replace current income and payroll taxes. This would have at moderate impact on getting our country's situation in order.

Oppose

certain federal least a budget

22%

20%

51% (34% strong)

Cap the amount of tax deductions homeowners can receive from the home mortgage interest deduction. This would have a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order.

13%

32%

47% (30% strong)

Limit the amount of employer-paid health care coverage that employees can receive tax-free and require that they pay taxes on any coverage they receive above that amount. This would have a moderate impact on getting our country's budget situation in order.

10%

24%

61% (40% strong)

11

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

Strong Support For Bipartisan Commission Preferred Approach to Address Our Federal Budget Problems Bipartisan commission of Members of Congress from both political parties and senior officials from Obama administration develop package of reforms to address national debt and budget problems; unlike current legislative process, Congress would have to vote on entire package, with limited or no opportunity to make changes. 56%

Regular process Congress uses to consider legislative proposals 30%

Neither/not sure 14%

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By two to one, voters also prefer a bipartisan commission of Members of Congress from both parties, Obama administration officials, and nonpolitical economic experts.

Voters on Budget Deficit & National Debt – February 2009 – Hart/Public Opinion Strategies for

HART RESEARCH A S S OC I A T E S

Voters’ Attitudes Toward The Budget Deficit & National Debt Key findings from nationwide survey conducted February 2009 for