Us Officials

US Officials: Swine Flu Less Deadly than First Feared By Michael Bowman Washington 03 May 2009 U.S. health officials are expressing cautious optimism the virus causing swine flu A-H1N1 may not be as virulent as initially feared, but they say aggressive steps to combat the infectious disease are still warranted. Days after Mexico suspended public activities to reduce the spread of swine flu, the country is reporting a leveling off in the rate of new infections. In the United States, the number of confirmed influenza cases continues to rise, but most flu sufferers report relatively mild symptoms, and only one death has been recorded.

People, wearing face masks as a precaution against swine flu, walk after crossing from U.S. to Mexico at the San Ysidro crossing port in Tijuana, Mexico, 30 Apr 2009

This is welcome news for U.S. health officials, who initially had to consider the possibility that the new flu strain's impact could mirror the devastation of the 1918 influenza pandemic that led to tens of millions of deaths worldwide. The acting director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, Richard Besser, spoke on ABC's "This Week" program.

"What we have found is that we are not seeing the factors that were associated with the 1918 pandemic. We are not seeing the factors that were associated with other H1N1 viruses," Besser said. But, he adds, "I do not think it is time to let our guard down. I think we have to continue in an uncertain situation to be aggressive." U.S. officials worry that, even if the virus' spread is eventually contained, it could re-emerge months from now during the northern hemisphere's winter flu season, when more than 30,000 Americans die each year from common influenza. The Obama administration says it is laying the groundwork to develop a vaccine against swine flu, although no decision has been made on large-scale production of such a vaccine. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius also appeared on "This Week".

"We can accelerate the seasonal flu vaccine, which we are doing right now to be prepared for what we know will hit this fall and winter. At the same time, we are in the stages of growing the [swine flu] virus, testing it, and we can be ready to do both [vaccines] simultaneously," Sebelius said. In the meantime, the Obama administration is urging common-sense steps to prevent the spread of swine flu, including frequent hand-washing and asking flu sufferers to stay at home. Some critics have accused the administration of overstating the dangers of swine flu and unnecessarily alarming the public. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano dismisses the charge. "We had a new strain of flu. We did not really know that its lethality was going to be. We did not know how quickly it was going to move. Once you get behind [the spread of] flu, you cannot catch up. You have to get ahead of it," said Napolitano.

Newly-confirmed Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius at a briefing on the government's response to the H1N1 virus, 29 Apr 2009

In an appearance on "Fox News Sunday," Napolitano again defended the administration's decision against closing the U.S. border with Mexico, saying it would incur massive economic costs with no meaningful health benefits, since swine flu is already spreading in the United States. Swine Flu Outbreak's Economic Damage Could Be Worse Than SARS By Heda Bayron Hong Kong 29 April 2009 If Asia's experience during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003 is any measure of things to come, the region's economies may find themselves in a much deeper hole should swine flu spread. Economists and industry leaders are closely watching the spread of the swine flu. Should a severe outbreak of the flu occur in Asia, economists and industry executives fear the economic damage would be worse than that of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003. The SARS Effect: SARS killed almost 800 people, 299 of them in Hong Kong. Economic activity in the territory Quarantine officer monitors thermal scanner was brought to a virtual standstill as health care workers tried to halt the spread of the virus. as passengers from international flight arrive at Incheon airport, S. Korea, 28 Apr 2009 The chief economist of Economic Research Analysis in Hong KongConnie Bolland says she is more worried about the swine flu than SARS because of the way the virus appears to spread. "The SARS, I did an analysis and the impact on Hong Kong is very little economically speaking because people don't travel so much and they spend more at home," Bolland said. "If this outbreak is genuine and not being contained, because it's human-to-human (infection), the impact can be potentially disastrous ... If that outbreak escalated to a very serious level, all economies will be affected. By then you will have travel ban, a lot of shopping, trading would be stopped, a lot of cross-border travel curtailed. It

would be worse than the SARS." In 2003, Hong Kong's economy suffered as tourists and business executives deferred travel to the territory and residents stayed away from restaurants and malls. But the outbreak was contained within a few months. This week, transportation and tourism stocks in Asia dropped the most when news broke of swine's flu's spread outside North America. Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines Director-General Andrew Herdman says the outbreak is occurring when the industry can least afford it. The association's 17 members combined carried nearly 11 percent fewer passengers in March from the same period last year. "We are in a midst of an industry downturn, we had a very difficult year last and this year is proving to be even more challenging," Herdman said. "So if the outbreak were to turn to pandemic, in that scenario, clearly it would have a much more severe impact on travel and would be yet another thing we have to contend with." Travel bans are unlikely: Officials at the World Health Organization have indicated travel bans are unlikely, because the virus has begun to spread all over the world. It was first identified in Mexico, where it is thought to have caused more than 150 deaths. But confirmed swine flu cases have been found in Europe, Israel, the United States, Canada and New Zealand. Bolland says a quick response to such an outbreak in Asia is key to preventing a deep economic crisis.

Train riders in Mexico City wear masks after outbreak of swine flu, 24 Apr 2009 "Closing down of schools and setting up of detection centers, treatment centers, imposing travel bans in countries where most number of outbreaks occur, advising organizations to reduce physical contact, work from home, work on shifts ...," Bolland said. New Zealand has confirmed the first cases of swine flu in the Asia-Pacific region. Governments throughout Asia are stepping up disease surveillance and readying contingency plans. On Wednesday, stock markets in Asia recovered from two days of flu-related selling. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 2.8 percent. South Korea's KOSPI gained nearly three percent and Shanghai's main index closed 2.8 percent higher.