Us Economy

1

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-----------------------------------------------------------"I favor a strong dollar. It’s in the national interest". US Treasury secretary, John Snow: (International Herald Tribune, 29 January,2004)

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tar&duefaiGa=u;aps;uGufu tpdk;&pmcsKyf -Bond / pawmh - Stock eJ@ wjcm; aiGa=u;qdkif&m - Assess awGudk 0,f,lcJhw,f? ('gawGudk aps;wuf&if jyefa&mif;w,f? aps;us&if 0,f+yD;pkw,f?) txl;ojzifh w±kwf/ *syefeJ@ wjcm;tmqD,HEkdifiHawG[m tar&duefa':vmawGudk wajz;ajz; 0,f,lpkaqmif;wm rsm;vmw,f? 'Dvdk0,f,l=uwJh ta=umif;wckuawmh olwdk@aiGa=u;pepfudk tar&duefa':vmeJ@ axmufyHhxm;Ekdifatmifvdk@ jzpfw,f? 'DtcsdefrSm w±kwf/ *syefeJ@ tm&Su EkdifiHawG&J@ pD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_[m tar&duefudk rSDcdkvm&w,f? tvm;wlyJ tar&duef&JŒ jynfwGif;wdk;wufr_[mvnf; olwdk@udk jyefvnftm;xm;vm&wJh taexm;awGjzpfvmw,f? 'Dawmh 'DEkdifiHawGu tar&duefa':vm aps;wufaewmudkyJ arsSmfvifhvm=uw,f? ukefoG,fa&;uGm[r_udk tar&duefawGu ta&xlaeyHkawmh&w,f? ukefoG,fa&;uGm[r_u tar&duefpD;yGm;a&;udk rxdcdkufEkdifbl;? ukefoG,fa&;rSm t[ef@twm;jzpfaer_awGudk omav#mhcsyg/ tqifajyoGm;r,fvdk@ ,lqwJholawG &dSw,f? 'DxJrSm 'efeD&,f wD *&ufpfa0gvf'f - Daniel T. Griswold- (Associate Director, Center for Trade Policy Studies) ygw,f? olu - " The trade deficit is not a sign of economic distress, but of rising domestic demand and investment. Second, the trade deficit is largely immune to changes in trade policy."

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w±kwfu EkdifiHjcm;ydk@ukefudk tajccHwJhpD;yGm;a&;pepfudkom aZmif;ay;wnfaqmufae+yD; udk,fhjynfwGif;aps;uGuf cdkifrmvmwJhpepfudk OayuQmðyxm;w,fvdk@ 'Dpmwrf;u qdkygw,f? 'DtpD&ifcHpm&JŒ =oZmu tawmftwefawmh &dSyHk&w,f? tar&duefeJ@ w±kwfacgif;aqmifawG yDuif;rSm 2 &uf=um ukefoG,fa&;qdkif&mtajctaeawGudk 2006 ckESpf 'DZifbmv 14 &ufrSm jyefvnfaqG;aEG;vm=uw,f? tajztwdtus rxGufvmcJhayr,fh tar&duefbufu b¾ma&; twGif;a&;rª; [ife&Daygvfqif - Hennery Paulson u ukefoG,fr_rrsSrwjzpfaewmawGudk ESpfEkdifiHpvHk;u ajz&Sif;zdk@ oabmwlnDcJh=uygw,fvdk@ xdef;xdef;odrf;odrf;ajymygw,f? 'gayrhJ tpnf;ta0;udk tar&duefbufu OD;aqmifaqG;aEG;cJhwJh qlqef pk0bf - Susan Schwab uawmh tar&duefeJ@ w±kwfukefoG,fa&; wif;rmr_uawmh a&SmifvJ$vdk@awmh r&Ekdifawmhygbl;vdk@ ajymygw,f? 'g[m pdk;&drfp&maumif;wJh aumufcsufjzpfygw,f? ('DtpD&ifcHpmrSm w±kwf&JŒ vHkòcHa&;qdkif&m ay:vpDawGtay:rSmvnf; tar&duef&JŒ pdk;&drfr_awGudk azmfjyxm;w,f? txl;ojzifh ta&SŒtv,fydkif;/ tmz&du/ vufwiftar&durSm w±kwf=oZm }uD;xGm;vmr_awG jzpfw,f? jy\emjzpfvmygu xdkif0rfudk w±kwfu tvG,fwul 0ifa&mufwdkufcdkfufvmEkdifwJh taetxm;udkvnf; axmufjyxm;ygw,f? 'Daqmif;yg;rSm pD;yGm;a&;udkyJ tm±HkpdkufrSmjzpfwJhtwGuf vHkòcHa&;udpPawGudk usaemf raqG;aEG;awmhygbl;?) usaemfhtjrif - tuJjzwfcsuf epfck 1? tjiif;buftqdkðycsuf - Cons Side • •

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2? axmufcHbuftqdkðycsuf Pros Side •

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(c) aiGa=u;azgif;yGr_ Inflation

5

aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_qdkwmuawmh ukefypPnf;aps;E_ef;awG w&dyf&yfeJ@wufvmwmudk aiGa=u;azmif;yG – Inflation jzpfvmw,fvdk@ ac:ygw,f? 'gu EkdifiHwdkif;rSm jzpfavh&dSw,f? aiGa=u;azmif;yGwmu aiGa=u;aps;uGufxJrSm vnfywfaewJhaiGawG (Money Supply) xJrSm aiGawGrsm;vmwm? (jrefrmjynfrSmuawmh ppftpdk;&u aiGa=u;aps;uGufxJudk aiGpuULtopfawG ±dkufESdyf+yD;xnfhw,f? tar&duefrSmawmh tpdk;&u Bond / Stock awG a&mif;wm rsm;vmwmvnf;jzpfEkdifw,f?) 'guawmh vkyftm;c/ ukefypPnf;wefzdk;eJ@ twdk;E_ef;awG[m wufvmw,f? bmjzpfvdk@vnf;qdkawmh aiGa=u;azmif;yGwmjzpfap/ qef‹usifbuf aiGa=u;±_HŒwm - deflation yJjzpfjzpf qufpyfr_awG&Sdaevdk‹yJ? vGefcJhwJh 25 ESpfu tar&duefa':vmaps; usvmwmeJ@ywfoufvdk@ jyefvnftzwfq,fzdk@ óud;pm;=uwJhae&mrSm tar&dueforwawGvnf; etz ppfacgif;aqmifawGvdk ±l;a=umifa=umiftvkyfawGudk vkyfcJh=uw,f? &pfcsyfepfqif u vkyfceJ@ ukefypPnf;wefzdk;awGudk rlaoowfrSwfcJhw,f? *sifrDumwmuvnf; "gwfqDwefzdk;ukd rlaoowfrSwfw,f? "gwfqDawGudk &m&SifpepfeJ@a&mif;zdk@ trdef@xkwfjyefcJhw,f? uG,fvGefoGm;wJh tar&dueforw *s,f&,fzdk‹'fuawmh ydk+yD;awmhawmif &,fp&maumif;ao;w,f? olu aiGa=u;azmif;yGudk }udrfeJ@aqmf - Whip Inflation Now (WIN) qdkwJh v_yf&Sm;r_awmif vkyfvdkufao;w,f? 'gayrJh udk,fawmfjrwf aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_u òzHawmfrrlbl;? wuf+rJwufavyJ? aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_u vlwa,mufcE<mudk,fu tqDeJ@ wlygw,f? vlrSm tqD&dSzdk@vdkovdk odyfrsm;&ifvnf; raumif;bl;? odyfenf;oGm;&ifvnf; raumif;ovdkaygh? aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_u &dSoifhoavmuf&dS&r,fvdk@ pD;yGm;a&;ynm&SifawGu ,lqw,f? bmjzpfvdk@vnf;qdkawmh 'g[m pD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_eJ@ wkduf±dkufqufpyfaevdk@ jzpfw,f? jrefrmjynfrSmuawmh aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_u tvGeftu|Hjzpfaew,f? vl‹cE<mudk,frSm tqDawG odyfrsm;aeovdkaygh? 'Dawmh aoG;wdk;wdk@/ qD;csdKwdk@ pwJh Oyg'fjzpfwJha&m*gawG jzpfay:vmEkdifovdkaygh? tck tar&dueftpdk;&u ðyjyifwJhenf;uawmh tEW&m,fenf;enf;&dSw,f? 'guawmh pD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_udk enf;enf;av#mhcsr,fvdk@qdkygw,f? tqDwufaewmudk tvG,fukxkH;jzpfwJh tpm;taomufpm;wmudk av#mhcsvdkufwJhoabmyJ? 'g[m enf;vrf;aumif;vm;qdkwm tar&dueftpdk;&taeeJ@ taotcsmpOf;pm;zdk@ vdkaew,f? a&wdkrSmawmh tusKd;&dSEkdfifayr,fh pD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_udk av#mhcswm[m a&&SnfrSm rvdkvm;tyfwJh qdk;usdK;awGudkvnf; jzpfay:vmEdkifw,f? 1970 ckESpf tapmydkif;umvawGeJ@ 1980 ckESpfumvawGwkef;uvnf; tar&duefa':vmaps;[m usqif;cJhzl;w,f? 'Dwkef;u usqif;r_u tar&duef&JŒ pD;yGma&;udk xdcdkuf±Hkwifrubl;/ urBmhpD;yGm;a&;udkyg qdk;usdK;oufa&mufr_awG jzpfcJhw,f? txl;ojzifh *syefudk xdcdkufcJhw,f? *syeftm%mydkifawGtaeeJ@ b%ftwdk;E_ef;awGudk tpGrf;ukefav#mhcscJh&wJh tajctaeawGudk a&mufcJhw,f? 'geJ@ywfoufvdk@ The Economist r*~Zif; u æ "Periods of dollar decline have often been unhappy for the world economy. The breakdown of Bretton Woods that led to a weaker dollar in the early 1970s was painful for all, contributing to rising inflation and recession." 1

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“a':vmaps;usqif;r_u urBmpD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_twGuf pdk;&drfp&mjzpfygw,f? bifwef0k'ftpnf;ta0; &yfqdkif;oGm;+yD;aemuf 1970 ckESpfaemufydkif; a':vmaps; tm;aysmhvmwJhtcsdefrSm tm;vHk; 'kuQawG awG@cJhw,f? aiGa=u;azmif;yGr_eJ@ pD;yGm;a&;wdk;wufr_ aES;auG;wmawGudk óuHcJh&w,f” vdk@ axmufjyw,f? w±kwfpD;yGm;a&;ynm&Sif zef*ef - Fan Gang u 2005 ckESpf/ qGpfZmvefEkdifiH 'gAdkpfòrd‹ Davos rSm usif;ywJh urBmhpD;yGm;a&;nDvmcH - World Economic Forum ajymcJhwmuawmh æ ``The U.S. dollar is no longer, in our opinion is no longer, (seen) as a stable currency and is devaluating all the time, and that's putting troubles all the time. So the real issue is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more manageable reference, say euros, yen, dollars -- those kind of more diversified systems.''

“usaemfhtjrifuawmh a':vmuawmh wnf+idrfwJhaiGa=u;w&yftaeeJ@ wnf&dSaeOD;r,fvdk@ rxifawmhbl;? us+yD;&if; usaewmyJ? jy\emt+rJ&dSaew,f? wu,fjy\emu a':vmwefzdk;jzwfcsufpepftpm; wjcm;xdef;odrf;EkdifvG,fwJh ,l±dk/ ,ef;/ a':vmvdk aiGa=u;pepfrsKd; ydk+yD; trsKd;pHkwJh pepffrsKd;aygh” olaxmufjycsufu pOf;pm;&ygw,f? 'gayrJh vufawG‹jzpfaewmu tar&duefudk rkef;vdk@&csif&r,f? a':vmudkawmh rkef;vdk@r&ygbl; jzpfaew,f? urBmhpD;yGm;a&;rSmu tar&duefeJ@ uif;csifayr,fh a':vmeJ@ uif;vdk@r&bl; jzpfvmw,f? a':vmu urBmhaps;uGufrSm t"du Zmwfaqmifjzpfaewmudk;? 'Dawmh udk,fudkwdkifu ol‹udk t+rJwrf;wufaeapcsifw,f? udk,fwufcsifwdkif; wufvdk@r&bl;? jy\emu pD;yGm;a&;oHo&m - Economic Circle u &dSaew,f? pD;yGm;a&;oHo&m&JŒ oabmu twuftus jzpfaew,f? a':vmae&mrSm zef*ef ajymovdk wjcm;aiGa=u;udk tpm;xdk;zdk@u tajymvG,foavmuf vufawG‹cufaeygw,f? bmjzpfvdk@vnf;qdkawmh a':vm[m xkwfvkyfaewJh tar&duefEkdifiH&JŒ pD;yGm;a&;tiftm;udk b,fEkdifiHurS ,SOfvdk@r&ao;wmu t"dujy\em jzpfaeygw,f? jzpfvmEkdifp&mta=umif;&dSwmuawmh wjcm;aiGa=u; - ,l±dk/ aygifeJ@ ,ef;awGudkyg xnf@oGif;oHk;pGJvmEkdifp&mawmh &dSygw,f? 'Dvdk a':vmaps; qufvufusqif;ae&if urBmpD;yGm;a&;usqif;r_ - Recession rsm;jzpfvmrvm;vdk@ pD;yGm;a&;ynmt& pdk;&drfp&mjzpfygw,f? 'Dae&mrSm pD;yGm;a&;oHo&m - Economics Circle udk usaemf tenf;i,faqG;aEG;csifygw,f? pD;yGm;a&;[m vlwa,mufeJ@ tawmfwlygw,f? vlwa,muf[m usef;rma&;aumif;wJhtcsdef/ udk,fvufrtDromjzpfwJhtcsdef/ rrmrusef;jzpfwJhtcsdef/ usef;rma&;jyefaumif;vmwJhtcsdefudk vlwdkif;óuHzl;=urSm jzpfygw,f? EkdifiHwck[mvnf; raumif;wJhumv - Recession / pD;yGm;a&;tajctae qdk;0g;umv - Depression / jyefvnfemvefxumv - Recovery eJ‹ pD;yGm;a&;w[kefxdk; wdk;wufvmwJhumv - Boom qdkwJh umv 4 ckudk t+rJvdkvdk óuHawG‹ae&jcif;jzpfygw,f? urBmhtcsrf;omqHk;EkdifiHyJjzpfjzpf/ tv,ftvwfcsrf;omeJ@ qif;&J+yD; tajctaeqdk;jzpfaeygap/ EkdifiHwdkif;[m 'DoHo&mu rvGwf=uygbl;? 'Dawmh csrf;omwJh edifiHawGrSm&dSwJh pD;yGm;a&;ynm&SifawGuawmh pD;yGm;a&usqif;r_ Recession / Depression umvawGudk óuH&wJhtcgrSm tusaumif;atmif pD;yGm;a&;ðyjyifajymif;vJr_awGudk vkyf=uw,f? 'DvdkjzpfaewJhumvudkvnf; tcsdefwdkeJ@ jzwfoef;Ekdifatmif óud;pm;=uw,f? pD;yGm;wufwJhumvawGudak wmh tcsdef=umEkdiforsS=umatmif qGJqef@xm;Ekdifatmif tpGrf;ukefóud;yrf;aqmif&Guf=uygw,f? tar&dueforwawGjzpfwJh taz bk&SfeJ‹ om; bk&Sf tpdk;&ESpfckpvHk;[m pD;yGm;a&; usqif;aer_ Recession awGeJ@ óuHawG‹cJh&w,f? orw uvifwefvufxufrSmawmh pD;yGm;twufydkif;eJ@ óuHawG‹cJh&w,f? 'ga=umifh orw

7

uvifwefvufxufrSm pD;yGm;wufygw,f? wu,fuawmh olu awmfwmvnf; wydkif;jzpfovdk/ pD;yGm;twufydkif;umv óuHcGifh&vdkufwmuvnf; wa=umif;jzpfaeygw,f? 'Dtajctaeudk tar&dueftaeeJ@ tjrefqHk;jyifqifEkdifatmif óud;pm;zdk@vdkaeygw,f? ukefoG,fa&;tE_wfvuQ%mjywdkif; pD;yGm;uswmr[kwfayr,fh a':vmaps; qufwufaer,fqdk&if tar&duefaiGtpm; wjcm;aiGa=u; Oyrm - ,l±dkudk urBmhpD;yGm;a&;rSm =um;cHoHk;pGJvmEkdifovm;? 'gu tar&duef&JŒ Unilateral Polarity udk pdefac:vmEkdifygw,f? urBmhEkdifiHa&;rSm 'gqdk&if Oa&my ygvDrmef&JŒ tcef;u¾u ta&;ygvmEkdifygw,f? avmavmq,frSm ±k&Sm;eJ@ w±kwfu pD;yGm;a&;emvefxcgpawG jzpfaeao;wJhtwGuf olwdk@[m urBmhpD;yGm;a&;rSm tiftm;rawmifhwif;ao;wma=umifh olwdk‹[m urBmhpD;yGm;a&;rSm ydkwif&S,fyg0gawGtaeeJ@yJ quf&dSaeOD;r,f? t"du Zmwfaqmiftjzpf &rvmEkdifao;bl;? tar&dueftpdk;& b¾ma&;twGif;a&;rª;tjzpf wm0ef,lcJhzl;wJh *|efpEdk; - John Snow uawmh "I favor a strong dollar. It’s in the national interest".

tar&duefa':vm cdkifrmaewmudk olvdkvm;w,f? 'g[m trsKd;om;tusdK;pD;yGm;vdk@ ajymcJhw,f? 'Dawmh olwdk@ b,fvdkvkyfvJqdkwm pdwf0ifpm;p&maumif;w,f? avhvmp&maumif;w,f? apmifh=unfh=uygpdk@? rdk;oD;ZGef 'Drdkua&pDr[mrdwfrsm;tzGJ@csKyf 'DZifbmv 15 &uf/ 2006?