Unitech Event Update 220409

INDIA

Unitech

Real Estate

Event Update

Hold Target Price: Rs56 CMP: Rs52* Upside: 8%

22 April 2009 Key Data

Triggers awaited – fairly priced  Unitech raises US$325mn through QIP: Unitech has raised Rs16.2bn through QIP at Rs38.5 per share (face value Rs2) resulting in 26% dilution and promoter holding falling to 53%.

*as on 21 April 2009

 D/E to fall to 1.2x post infusion, but concerns linger: With part repayment of debt through equity proceeds, D/E would fall to 1.2x in FY10. However, with additional debt of Rs25bn maturing in FY11, Unitech is expected face a shortfall of Rs19.5bn in FY11after factoring in money flow from asset sales.  Unitech’s proposed launch plans may not materialize: Unitech needs to tread cautiously as its proposed launch target of 30mn sq ft in FY10 appears to be too aggressive, considering that the company has been unable to sell a similar amount over FY07-09 combined. Ongoing projects of 27mn sq ft yet to be delivered

Bloomberg Code

Rupesh Sankhe [email protected] 91 22 4215 9636

UNTE.BO

Current Shares O/S (mn)

1,621.0

Diluted Shares O/S(mn)

1,621.0

Mkt Cap (Rs bn/USD bn)

84.5/1.7

52 Wk H / L (Rs)

338/22

Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.)

606,60,804

Face Value (Rs)

2

1 USD = Rs50.4 Source: Bloomberg ; * As on 21 April 2009

Shareholding Pattern Public & Others, 12.9

 Declining demand continues to impact office and retail segments: Visible slowdown in Unitech Corporate Parks (UCP) and other properties’ pre-leasing and construction activities combined with huge oversupply gives poor visibility over FY09-11E.  Maintain Hold with target price of Rs56 at 30% discount to NAV: After factoring in impact of dilution and Unitech’s unaudited financial statements as at Dec 2008, our NAV per share has increased to Rs78 from Rs67. Our discount to NAV has now fallen to 30% from 50%, which factors in the reduced interest burden and lower debt/equity ratio. This justifies our new target price of Rs56/sh (Rs54 for real estate and Rs2 for Unitech Wireless) and we reiterate Hold on the stock.

UT.IN

Reuters Code

Foreign, 6.3 Institutions, 1.9 Non Promoter Corp. Hold., 11.5

Promoters, 67.5

Source: BSE; As on 31 December 2008

One Year Indexed Stock Performance 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Apr-08

Adhidev Chattopadhyay [email protected] 91 22 4215 9632

Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 UNITECH LTD

NSE S&P CNX NIFTY INDEX

Price Performance (%)

Unitech

1M

6M

1Yr

93.9

(27.3)

(81.4)

NIFTY 19.9 9.8 (33.4) Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research *as on 21 April 2009

Y/E Mar(Rsmn)

Rev

YoY (%)

EBITDA

EBITDA (%)

Adj PAT

YoY %

Fully DEPS

RoE (%)

RoCE (%)

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

FY07

33,447

117.5

18,296

54.7

13,058

1,396.5

8.0

115.9

31.6

6.5

9.6

FY08

41,575

24.3

22,038

53.0

16,619

27.3

10.3

59.4

17.9

5.1

8.0

FY09E

34,377

(17.3)

17,570

51.1

10,813

(34.9)

6.7

25.9

9.6

7.7

10.0

FY10E

24,570

(28.5)

10,804

44.0

5,736

(46.9)

2.9

9.8

5.4

18.2

16.3

FY11E

33,804

37.6

10,982

32.5

6,149

7.2

3.1

8.5

5.4

17.0

16.0

Source: Company, Centrum Research estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers inside

Equity infusion reduces funding gap but concerns linger Unitech has raised Rs16.2bn through a QIP issue by issuing about 421mn shares at Rs38.5 per share leading to a dilution of 26% in pre-issue share capital with promoter holding falling to 53% from 67%. Unitech has indicated that the proceeds of the issue would be utilized for part-payment of maturing debts of approximately Rs25bn in FY10 with the balance amount being deployed towards construction of ongoing projects and new project launches. The equity infusion is slated to bring down Unitech’s debt/equity ratio to 1.2x in FY10E from 2.1x as of March 2009. However, unaudited financial statements in Unitech’s QIP document shows its outstanding debt at Rs109bn (including Unitech Wireless estimated debt of Rs21bn) as of Q3FY09. This factors in repayment of debt of Rs4bn to Unitech from Unitech Wireless (through first tranche of Telenor inflow of Rs12.5bn) and Rs10bn in FY10. We estimate Unitech’s debt at Rs75bn as of March 2010. Although the equity infusion allays funding concerns for FY10, the estimated debt of Rs25bn maturing in FY11 still needs to be paid off either through asset sales, PE funding or through debt refinancing. Moreover, the operating environment for Unitech remains weak and its plans to launch 30mn sq ft of new projects in FY10 across 15 cities may not materialize as the company is yet to deliver on many of its ongoing projects in Noida and Kolkata. D/E to fall to 1.2x post equity infusion, FY11 funding concerns remain Post equity-infusion of Rs16.2bn, the debt/equity ratio on consolidated basis (including Unitech Wireless) is slated to fall to 1.2x from 2.1x as of March 2009 on an estimated consolidated balance sheet debt of Rs86bn in FY10E. Although this would allay concerns on funding gap in FY10, Unitech may face a shortfall of Rs19.5bn after factoring in money flow from asset sales with additional debt of Rs25bn maturing in FY11. Exhibit 1: Unitech’s funding position (as of March 2009) Unitech Funding Position (Rsmn)

Q4FY09E

FY10E

FY11E

Construction Costs

6,318

13,766

22,822

Interest costs

2,000

7,000

6,500

200

1,836

1,980

Debt repayment

25,000

25,000

25,000

Total funding requirement…………..(i)

33,518

47,602

56,303

Sales

8,749

24,570

33,804

Telenor inflow

4,000

-

-

Asset sales, stake sale in projects

2,300

9,700

3,000

Outflow:

Taxation

Inflow:

-

16,209

-

15,049

50,479

36,804

Net cash requirement………………..(ii)

18,469

(2,877)

19,498

Of which: refinanced/restructured debt

18,000

-

-

469

(2,877)

19,498

Equity infusion Total inflow

Balance funding/refinancing requirement Source: Centrum Research Estimates

Unitech’s proposed launch plans may not materialize Unitech intends to launch ~30mn sq ft of projects in FY10 across 15 cities with concentration in the residential segment. However, with Unitech struggling to complete its ongoing residential projects spread over 27mn sq ft across Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida and Kolkata and gross balance sheet debt still at high levels, we believe it would need to tread cautiously as its proposed launch target of 30mn sq ft appears to be too aggressive, factoring in that it has been unable to sell a similar amount over FY07-09 combined. As outlined above, with FY11 funding concerns still looming large, Unitech should focus on strengthening its balance sheet further.

2

Unitech

Exhibit 2: Unitech’s ongoing residential projects (as of March 2009) Estimated Saleable Area (mn sq ft)

Expected Completion Date

Group Housing

1.71

2009

Villas and Plots

0.92

2009

Gurgaon

Group Housing

3.27

2009

Fresco

Gurgaon

Group Housing

1.37

2009

Escape

Gurgaon

Group Housing

0.82

2009

Harmony

Gurgaon

Group Housing

0.88

2009

Uniworld Resorts

Gurgaon

Plots

1.45

2009

Uniworld Gardens II

Gurgaon

Group Housing

1.02

2011

Unitech Heights

Noida/Greater Noida

Group Housing

0.60

2009

Unitech Horizon

Noida/Greater Noida

Group Housing

1.93

2009

Project Name

Location

Type

Uniworld SPA

Gurgaon

Espace

Gurgaon

The Close

Unitech Cascades

Noida/Greater Noida

Group Housing

0.66

2009

Unitech Habitat

Noida/Greater Noida

Group Housing

1.80

2009

Unitech Verve

Noida/Greater Noida

Group Housing

0.65

2009

Capella – Uniworld City

Noida/Greater Noida

Mixed Development

1.20

2009

Unitech Grande (1st Phase).. Noida/Greater Noida

Mixed Development

1.09

2010

Garden

Kolkata

Group Housing

0.77

2009

Horizon

Kolkata

Group Housing

0.73

2009

Air

Kolkata

Group Housing

0.50

2010

Down Town

Kolkata

Group Housing

0.54

2009

Cascades

Kolkata

Group Housing

1.06

2010

Height

Kolkata

Group Housing

1.48

2009

Gateway

Kolkata

Group Housing

2.27

2010-11 ( 4 phases)

Harmony

Kolkata

Group Housing

0.38

2010

Total Source: Company, Centrum Research

27.10

Valuations – Maintain Hold with target price of Rs56 at 30% discount to NAV After factoring in the impact of dilution and Unitech’s unaudited financial statements as at December 2008, our NAV per share has increased to Rs78 from Rs67, while our discount to NAV has fallen to 30% from 50% earlier, keeping in mind the reduced interest burden and lower debt/equity ratio. This underpins our new target price of Rs56 per share (Rs54 for real estate and Rs2 for Unitech Wireless) and we reiterate Hold on the stock. Exhibit 3: Unitech: NAV calculation Total FCFF (Rs mn) Add: Capitalized value of lease properties (Rs mn)

72,929

Less: Net Debt as on 31 Mar10 (Rs mn)

73,977

Less: Outstanding Land Payments (Rs mn)

15,000

Add: Hotel sites (Rs mn) NAV (Rs mn) No.of Shares (mn) NAV per share (Rs) Discount to NAV per share (%) Target Price (Rs) Add: Value of Unitech Wireless (Rs) SOTP Target Price (Rs)

3

170,179

4,396 158,528 2,042 78 30% 54 2 56

CMP (Rs)

52

% upside/(downside) (%) Source: Centrum Research Estimates

8%

Unitech

Financials Exhibit 14: Cash flow

Exhibit 12: Income Statement Y/E March (Rs mn)

FY07

Revenues

34,377

24,570

33,804

24.3

(17.3)

(28.5)

37.6

15,151

19,536

16,807

13,766

22,822

45.3

47.0

48.9

56.0

67.5

18,296

22,038

17,570

10,804

10,982

830.3

20.5

(20.3)

(38.5)

1.6

54.7

53.0

51.1

44.0

32.5

73

205

261

273

300

EBITDA Margin (%) Dep & Amortisation Other Income

983

1,649

780

750

750

19,205

23,482

18,089

11,281

11,432

Interest expenses EBT bef extrao items

FY11E

41,575

y-o-y growth (%)

EBIT

FY10E

117.5

% of net sales EBITDA

FY09E

33,447

Growth in revenues (%) Operating exp

FY08

1,287

2,804

4,061

3,461

3,061

17,919

20,678

14,028

7,820

8,371

Extraord. Income/(Exp)

0

0

0

0

0

17,919

20,678

14,028

7,820

8,371

4,864

3,986

3,086

1,955

2,093

27.1

19.3

22.0

25.0

25.0

13,055

16,692

10,942

5,865

6,278

11

129

129

129

129

Net Profit after min int

13,044

16,563

10,813

5,736

6,149

Extra-ordinary inc/ (exp)

14

55

0

0

0

Adjusted Net Profit

13,058

16,619

10,813

5,736

6,149

y-o-y growth (%)

1,396.5

27.3

(34.9)

(46.9)

7.2

37.9

38.4

30.8

22.7

17.8

EBT Provision for tax Effective tax rate (%) Net Profit bef min int. Minority interest

Adj.Net Profit Mrg(%)

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Y/E March (Rs mn) CF from operating Profit before tax Depreciation Interest expenses/(income) Other Non oper. (inc./exp. Op. profit bef WC change Working capital adjustment Gross cash from opera. Direct taxes paid Interest expenses Cash from operations Cash flow from invest. Capex Investment Others Other Income Cash from investment Cash flow from financing Procds. from sh cap & prem. Borrowings/ (Repayments) Others Dividend paid Cash from financing Net cash increase/ (dec.) Opening Cash Balance Closing Cash Balance

FY07

FY08

FY09E

FY10E

FY11E

1,623

3,247

3,247

4,089

4,089

Reserves

18,320

32,758

44,301

65,238

71,208

Shareholders' fund

19,944

36,005

47,548

69,326

75,297

13

1,159

1,159

1,159

1,159

40,397

85,524

101,524

86,524

76,524

Minority Interest Debt Deferred Tax Liability

15,808

19,196

19,196

19,196

19,196

Total Capital Employed

76,161

141,883

169,426

176,205

172,175

Total Fixed Assets

8,148

31,442

53,137

50,321

47,724

Goodwill

1,126

1,126

4,243

4,243

4,243

Investments

4,548

14,165

12,563

12,563

12,563

548

422

471

740

741

86,447

135,653

148,338

141,363

148,184

1,458

7,460

8,759

11,444

13,892 11,325

Inventories Projects in progress Debtors Cash and bank balances

10,227

14,083

10,010

12,547

Other current assets

172

148

188

202

185

Loans and Advances

18,225

29,295

32,964

33,658

37,046

Total current assets

117,077

187,062

200,730

199,953

211,373

Current liabilities & prov.

54,738

91,912

101,247

90,876

103,729

Net current assets

62,339

95,150

99,483

109,078

107,644

Misc. Expenditure

1

1

1

1

1

76,161

141,883

169,426

176,205

172,175

Total Assets

Source: Company, Centrum Research

FY09E

FY10E

FY11E

17,919 73 832 (419) 18,404 (38,113) (19,708) (235) (801) (20,745)

20,678 205 2,048 (65) 22,866 (29,956) (7,090) (415) (2,246) (9,750)

14,028 261 3,281 0 17,570 (8,406) 9,164 (3,086) (4,061) 2,017

7,820 273 2,711 0 10,804 (7,057) 3,748 (1,955) (3,461) (1,668)

8,371 300 2,311 0 10,982 211 11,193 (2,093) (3,061) 6,040

(3,333) (2,261) (2,115) 455 (7,255)

(23,508) (3,409) (5,713) 756 (31,874)

(21,957) 1,602 (3,117) 780 (22,692)

2,543 0 0 750 3,293

2,296 0 0 750 3,046

4,699 30,017 (204) (185) 34,327 6,328 3,899 10,227

84 45,343 528 (475) 45,480 3,855 10,227 14,083

0 16,000 913 (311) 16,602 (4,073) 14,083 10,010

16,209 (15,000) (129) (167) 913 2,537 10,010 12,547

0 (10,000) (129) (179) (10,307) (1,222) 12,547 11,325

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Y/E March

Equity Share Capital

FY08

Exhibit 15: Key Ratios

Exhibit 13: Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn)

FY07

FY07

FY08

FY09E

FY10E

FY11E

Margin Ratios (%) EBITDA Margin PBIT Margin PBT Margin PAT Margin

54.7 55.8 52.0 37.9

53.0 54.3 47.8 38.4

51.1 51.5 39.9 30.8

44.0 44.6 30.9 22.7

32.5 33.1 24.2 17.8

Growth Ratio (%) Revenue EBITDA Net Profit

117.5 830.3 1,396.5

24.3 20.5 27.3

(17.3) (20.3) (34.9)

(28.5) (38.5) (46.9)

37.6 1.6 7.2

Return Ratios (%) ROCE ROIC ROE

31.6 23.4 115.9

17.9 17.2 59.4

9.6 10.2 25.9

5.4 6.2 9.8

5.4 6.3 8.5

8.0 8.0 12.3 6.3 0.3

10.3 10.3 22.2 8.7 0.3

6.7 6.7 29.3 6.2 0.2

2.9 2.9 33.9 6.1 0.1

3.1 3.1 36.9 5.5 0.1

2.0 14.9

2.4 8.4

2.1 4.5

1.2 3.3

1.0 3.7

6.5 4.2 9.6 5.3 2.5

5.1 2.4 8.0 4.2 2.0

7.7 1.8 10.0 5.1 2.5

18.2 1.5 16.3 7.2 3.4

17.0 1.4 16.0 5.2 2.5

Per share Ratios (Rs) Basic EPS Fully diluted EPS Book value Cash per share Dividend per share Gearing Ratio (x) Debt-equity Interest coverage ratio Valuation (x) P/E (Fully Diluted) P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales M-cap/Sales

Source: Company, Centrum Research

4

Unitech

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5

Unitech

Sanjeev Patni

Head - Institutional Equities

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9699

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Head - Research

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[email protected]

91-22-4215 9636

Saikiran Pulavarthi

Analyst

Financial Services

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9637

Siddhartha Khemka

Analyst

Logistics

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9857

Sriram Rathi

Analyst

Pharmaceuticals

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9643

Adhidev Chattopadhyay

Associate

Real Estate

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9632

Janhavi Prabhu

Associate

Sugar, Retail

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9864

Jatin Damania

Associate

Metals & Mining, Pipes

[email protected]

91-22-4215 9647

Vijay Nara

Associate

Automobiles/Auto Ancillaries

[email protected]

91-22-42159641

+91 98216 23870

Sales V. Krishnan

+91-22-4215 9658

[email protected]

Ashish Tapuriah

+91-22-4215 9675

[email protected]

+91 99675 44060

Chirag Vora

+91-22-4215 9677

[email protected]

+91 98207 63682

Ashvin Patil

+91-22-4215 9866

[email protected]

+91 98338 92012

Siddharth Batra

+91-22-4215 9863

[email protected]

+91 99202 63525

Centrum Securities (Europe) Ltd., UK Dan Harwood Michael Orme

CEO Global Strategist

+44-7830-134859

[email protected]

+44 (0) 775 145 2198

[email protected]

Nicole Rappel

Client Management

+44 (0) 798 441 6878

[email protected]

+1-646-701-4465

[email protected]

Centrum Securities LLC, USA Melrick D’Souza

Key to Centrum Investment Rankings Buy: Expected outperform Nifty by>15%, Accumulate: Expected to outperform Nifty by +5 to 15%, Hold: Expected to outperform Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty by>15%

Centrum Broking Private Limited Member (NSE, BSE), Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager Regn Nos CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB 011251130, NSE: INB231251134 DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INF 231251134 (TRADING & SELF CLEARING MEMBER) CDSL DP ID: 12200. SEBI REGISTRATION NO.: IN-DP-CDSL-20-99 PMS REGISTRATION NO.: INP000000456 Website: www.centrum.co.in Investor Grievance Email ID: [email protected]

6

REGD. OFFICE Address Bombay Mutual Bldg.,2nd Floor, Dr. D. N. Road, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001 Correspondence Address Centrum House, 6th Floor, CST Road, Near Vidya Nagari Marg, Kalina, Santacruz (E), Mumbai 400 098. Tel: (022) 4215 9000

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