Underconsumption Theories And Keynesian Economics. Interpretations Of The Great Depression

Underconsumption theories and Keynesian economics. Interpretations of the Great Depression Elisabeth Allgoewer May 2002 Discussion paper no. 2002-14

Department of Economics

University of St. Gallen

Editor:

Publisher:

Electronic Publication:

Prof. Jörg Baumberger University of St. Gallen Department of Economics Bodanstr. 1 CH-9000 St. Gallen Phone ++41 71 224 22 41 Fax ++41 71 224 28 85 Email [email protected] Forschungsgemeinschaft für Nationalökonomie an der Universität St. Gallen Dufourstrasse 48 CH-9000 St. Gallen Phone ++41 71 224 23 00 Fax ++41 71 224 26 46 www.fgn.unisg.ch/public/public.htm

Underconsumption theories and Keynesian economics. Interpretations of the Great Depression1

Elisabeth Allgoewer

Author’s address:

1

Dr. Elisabeth Allgoewer FGN-HSG Dufourstr. 48 9000 St. Gallen Tel. ++41 71 224 23 00 Fax ++41 71 224 26 46 Email [email protected]

I would like to thank Mauro Boianovsky and Claudio Sardoni for helpful comments on earlier versions of this

paper. All remaining errors are mine.

Abstract Underconsumption theories played an important part in the economic policy debates during the Great Depression of the 1930s. The commonsense appeal of the arguments and the clear cut policy advice secured their proponents’ popular support. Here, the contributions of John A. Hobson, Emil Lederer, Waddill Catchings and William Foster are analyzed. The background to their thinking in terms of the economic policy debates in the respective countries is discussed and compared. Switzerland is an interesting case in this context since there underconsumption arguments were the only arguments used to challenge the orthodoxy of balanced budgets with the demand for active government policies. In evaluating the contributions discussed here with regard to the innovations of Keynes’s General Theory on the one hand, the tradition of classical political economy on the other, it is argued that although underconsumptionists share certain concerns with Keynes’s analysis, central theoretical notions are carried over from classical economics. Keywords Pre-Keynesian business cycle theory, classical economic thinking, Keynesian economics, explanations for the Great Depression, cycles and growth. JEL Classification B2, B3, E3, N1.

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