Trendroom Q2 Themes

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TRENDROOM Q2- 2009 Macro & Tech Themes

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1. Risk Premium – A2P2 Spread calculated by FED continue to move down which is relatively good sign that the risk in system declines but it is still elevated compared to levels before the crisis.

2. AAA Asset back index showing no signs of improving which is a bit confusing.

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3. Technical picture of S&P 500 is very interesting. Medium Term BUY signal is generated by EMA20&50 cross. Seasonals are bullish until mid may.

4. VIX – Volatility slowly moving south supporting stock market.

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5. BRICs are outperforming major indexes in developed world since dec2008 but still lagging of larger time frame

6. Relative performance S&P500 vs. BRICs vs. CEE

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7. Commodities – SELL OFF mode is over but we doubt that new BULL market has started.

8. Gold – Everybody loves GOLD ….Are there any BUYERS left 

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9. Crude oil - Correction and sideways into the summer.

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10. US dollar Index – Trendline still holds but for how long.

11. EURUSD – Messy technical picture on daily.

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12. Japanese Yen – 15+% correction from the high. We are leaning to strong yen on LT horizon but not yet.

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