This Material Has Been Produced By Rbs Sales And Trading

This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.

The Round Up 11 August 2009 Issue No. 152 The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrants team providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas for warrant traders and investors.

In today’s issue Global Market Action

Scoreboard

Aussie Market Action

SPI Comment, Events & Dividends

BHP (BHPVZE/BHPVZV)

Trading Update – Trade tomorrows result

SUN (SUNKZM)

MINI Trading Buy – Value in insurance

SLF (SLFSZX)

Self Funding Investment – property sector

Round Up Corner

Reporting Season Trading – COH,JBH,BHP,CBA,CPU,TLS,CCL,LEI

Equities Move ASX 200

Last

% Move

Range

Volume

+4.7

4304.1

+0.1%

+1 to +49

$4.7 bn(A)

SPI - yesterday

+3.0

4265.0

+0.1%

-1 to +47

22,832(L)

Dow Jones

-32.1

9337.9

-0.3%

-80 to +2

Low

S&P 500

-3.4

1007.1

-0.3%

-9 to -0

Avg

Nasdaq

-8.0

1992.2

-0.4%

-21 to -1

Avg

FTSE

-9.4

4722.2

-0.2%

-43 to u.c

Low

Commodities Move

Last

% Today

% Past Month

Oil-WTI spot

-0.03

70.90

-0.0%

+18.2%

Gold Spot

-9.05

945.90

-0.9%

+3.5%

Nickel (LME)

+25.74

912.84

+2.9%

+39.7%

Aluminium (LME)

-2.39

87.82

-2.7%

+25.4%

Copper (LME)

-0.71

277.84

-0.3%

+26.1%

Zinc (LME)

-2.28

82.65

-2.7%

+24.0%

Silver

-0.24

14.38

-1.6%

+13.5%

Sugar

+1.19

22.00

+5.7%

+27.4%

Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s) Move

%Move

Last

AUD Terms

NWS (US)

+0.04

+0.3%

13.09

RIO (UK)

-78.5 p

-3.2%

BLT (BHP UK)

-38.5 p

-2.4%

BXB (UK)

+17.8 p

+5.9%

£3.188

Diff to Aus

15.63

+23.1 c

£23.43

46.10

-1245.1 c

£15.505

30.51

-725.3 c

6.27

+6.2 c

American Depository Receipts (ADR’s) Move

%Move

Last

BHP (US)

-1.90

-2.9%

AWC (US)

-0.10

-1.7%

TLS (US)

-0.04

-0.3%

ANZ (US)

-0.23

-1.4%

WBC (US)

-1.44

-1.5%

NAB (US)

-0.41

LGL (US)

-0.22

AUD Terms 62.53

Diff to Aus

37.33

-42.6 c

5.96

1.78

-2.1 c

14.92

3.56

-1.7 c

16.25

19.40

+11.4 c

95.06

22.70

+4.2 c

-1.9%

21.39

25.54

+8.2 c

-1.0%

22.10

2.64

-1.1 c

RMD (US)

-0.18

-0.4%

45.07

5.38

-0.8 c

JHX (US)

+0.24

+1.1%

21.24

5.07

+10.3 c

PDN (CAN)

-0.16

-3.9%

3.99

4.37

-18.5 c

Overnight Commentary United States Commentary US stocks fell overnight led by Industrials and Materials companies, on concerns that the S&P00 is trading at the highest level relative to earnings since 2004 and was in need a breather. A lack of specific data seemed to allow investor to step back and look at the nig picture. The Dow finished down 32 pts on average volume. Industrials - 3M lost 2.7%, Cisco fell 2.4% and Travelers Group slipped 2.2%, the three industrials taking 27 pts from the index between them. There was a lack of specific data and a lot of use of language such as "taking a breather" and "need for a pause". Resources - A softer night for metals after one broker said prices appeared "frothy" after surging this year, and another questioned if we have yet seen proof of growth outside of China this year. Alcoa gave up 2.4% and Caterpillar slipped 1.3% in line with the moves, and Steel stocks having a rough night, AK Steel off 4.7%. Retail - Best Buy Co. lost 5.2% after one broker cut its rating to neutral on the shares, citing competition in the electronics space, and the need to spend to maintain growth. Led the sector down c.2%, with Macy's off 4.7% and Radioshack down 3.8%. Homebuilders - The US homebuilders sector gave up much of its gains from the previous session. DR Horton down 5.4%, KB Homes fell 4.7%, and Lennar lost 4.5%.

United Kingdom & Europe Commentary The FTSE 100 fell 0.2% or 9pts with banks and miners lower as investors took profits from last weeks hefty gains. The FTSE Eurofirst fell 0.6%, the DAX was off 0.7% and the CAC ended 0.5% lower. UK Banks - Lloyds fell 4% after reports of a share issue and the possibility of it leaving the UK Govt's Asset Protection Scheme. RBS, off 3.6%, continued to fall after poor results Friday and Barclays was off 1.8%. Standard Chartered and HSBC however managed gains of 0.6% and 0.3% respectively. Euro Banks - Sentiment was hit after the Lloyds news but stocks generally gained ground. Deutsche Bank added 1.1%, Commerzbank rose 1.5%, Dexia jumped 5.6%, Natixis rose 3% but SocGen and BNP were off 1.35% and 0.5% respectively. Insurers - Friends Provident soared 7% after it said it had agreed to fresh talks with Resolution. Prudential rose 3% while Old Mutual, Standard Life and Legal & General were up between 0.6% and 1.6%. In Europe, Vienna Insurance was up 4.8% and Swiss Re climbed 1.2%. Auto - VW sank 7.5% and Daimler fell 3.7% after broker downgrades. Porsche dropped 2.1% but Renault and Peugeot were up 0.1% and 0.8% respectively.

Resources Commentary Miners - The sector was the biggest drag on the index with Rio shedding 3.2% after China stepped up espionage allegations. BHP fell 2.4%, Anglo was 2% lower, Vedanta dropped 1.9% and Xstrata was off 3.1% after the company said it was in talks that may see it sell a major stake in a South African project. Energy - Higher crude prices saw some of the majors gain ground. BP rose 1% and Tullow climbed 1.5% but Shell fell 0.4%, Total was off 1%, Statoil dropped 1.2% and Repsol was flat.

SPI Commentary The SPI traded up 3pts or 0.07% to 4265. Open at 4303 with a high of 4328 and a low of 4261. Volume 24,718. Ovenright the SPI trading down 1pt to 4264

SPI Intraday

SPI Daily

*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week Monday

AUS

Tuesday

AUS

Owner occupied housing finance, investor housing finance

US NAB Business confidence, NAB Business conditions

US Wednesday

Non-farm productivity

AUS

WMI consumer sentiment, wage price index

US Thursday

Wholesale inventories, trade balance

AUS

AWOTE

US Friday

Fed funds rate decision, import prices, retail sales

AUS

RBA Governor testifies on monetary policy

US

Buisiness inventories, CPI, industrial production, Michigan consumer conf

*Dates are indicative only and may change

Upcoming Dividends ExDivDate 11-Aug-09

Security

Description

Div (c) 13

Yield

Frk(%)

PayDate

AFI

Aust Foundation

4.06%

100

1-Sep-09

11-Aug-09

TAH

Tabcorp Holdings

11-Aug-09

WDC

Westfield Group

30

9.17%

100

18-Sep-09

47

7.84%

0

31-Aug-09

13-Aug-09

ARG

Argo Invest

13

4.07%

100

4-Sep-09

17-Aug-09

AXA

AXA Asia Pacific

9.25

4.25%

30.06

24-Sep-09

3-Sep-09

NWS

News Corp

6

0.9%

0

14-Oct-09

Trading Update: BHP Billiton (BHPVZE/BHPVZV) – Trade tomorrow’s result BHP Billiton is set to report its FY results tomorrow. Any surprise to the upside or downside is likley to see the share price move. Trade the BHP result through an RBS trading warrant. Trade long thorugh BHPVZE August $40 call, or short through BHPVZV August $36 put. RBS Research expectations for the BHP result are shown below: Date 12 Aug

Code BHP

Company BHP Billiton

Y/E Jun

USD

NPAT (pre abs)

(Abs)

Div

EPS

2H div

10506

-4466

82.0c

188.8c

41.0c

Source: IRESS

Technically, since hitting $20 in 2008 BHP has formed an uptrending channel and has recently traded to the top end of the channel and retraced. A worse than expected result could see the stock trade back down to the bottom end of its trading range near $32, while a better than expected result could see the stock crack through $40. The key focus of the result is likely to be around BHP’s cost control in the face of weaker commodity prices over 2008 and early 2009. Management outlook commentary will also be a focus.

RBS MINIs over BHP

Security

ExPrc

Stop Loss

CP

ConvFac

Delta

Description

BHPKZB

1867.63

2051

Long

1

1

MINI Long

BHPKZC

1539.07

1690

Long

1

1

MINI Long

BHPKZD

2490.93

2736

Long

1

1

MINI Long

BHPKZJ

3000

3300

Long

1

1

MINI Long

BHPKZR

4649.65

4185

Short

1

1

MINI Short

BHPKZS

5299.62

4770

Short

1

1

MINI Short

BHPKZY

4841.25

4575

Short

1

1

MINI Short

RBS Warrants over BHP Security

ExDate

ExPrice

BHPVZE

27-Aug-09

4000

CP

ConvFac Call

4

Delta

Description 0.06

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZF

27-Aug-09

3600

Call

4

0.19

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZG

24-Sep-09

3500

Call

4

0.18

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZH

24-Sep-09

3400

Call

4

0.20

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZI

29-Oct-09

4200

Call

4

0.07

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZJ

40,115.00

3,200

Call

4

0.21

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZK

26-Nov-09

3,800

Call

4

0.13

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZL

26-Nov-09

4500

Call

4

0.05

Trading Call Warrant

BHPVZV

27-Aug-09

3600

Put

4

-0.06

Trading Put Warrant

BHPVZW

24-Sep-09

3800

Put

4

-0.13

Trading Put Warrant

BHPVZX

24-Sep-09

2800

Put

4

0.00

Trading Put Warrant

BHPVZY

29-Oct-09

3,400

Put

4

-0.06

Trading Put Warrant

BHPVZZ

29-Oct-09

3000

Put

4

-0.02

Trading Put Warrant

BHPWZP

26-Nov-09

2500

Put

4

0.00

Trading Put Warrant

BHPWZQ

26-Nov-09

3200

Put

4

-0.05

Trading Put Warrant

BHPWZR

17-Dec-09

4000

Put

4

-0.14

Trading Put Warrant

MINI Trading Update: Suncorp Metway (SUNKZM) – Value in insurance We have been bullish SUN since the stock broke through ressitance at $6.75. SUN has continued its rally since then thanks to talk of selling its banking assets, which RBS Research believe could unlock additional value for shareholders. SUNm announced its expected results on Friday with the key takeaway being that bad debts did not deteriorate further, which has positive implications for a potential divestment of SUN’s banking operations. While Insurance and Life were behind RBS Research expectations, the negative surprises were largely oneoff in nature. RBS Research believe there is further upside from here and retain Buy call with a new target price of $8.80. Buy SUNKZM

Source: IRESS

Early release of FY09 result • The key positive from the result was the narrowing of the bad debt guidance from 125-145bp to 125-135bp which has lifted banking NAPT expectations • Insurance suffered from the negative impact of marking-to-market the bond portfolio which was was greater than RBS Research had anticipated and the insurance margin guidance of 7.5-8% was also behind expectations. • The weakness in Life insurance was mainly due to the rapid unwinding of discount rate changes and is largely oneoff so not of particular concern. • The outlook for bad debts in Australia appears to be improving along with the macroeconomic situation. As a result, RBS Research have nudged up banking valuation multiple from 0.9x book value to 1.0x, which still only implies a PE of 6.4x in FY11F. • RBS price target increases from $7.38 to $8.80

RBS MINIs over SUN Security SUNKZL

ExPrc

Stop Loss 396.47

436

CP

ConvFac

Delta

Description

Long

1

1

MINI Long

SUNKZM

459.67

505

Long

1

1

MINI Long

SUNKZP

1094.16

985

Short

1

1

MINI Short

SUNKZQ

893.17

843

Short

1

1

MINI Short

Self Funding Investment: SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Property Fund (SLFSZX) The listed property sector has been one of the biggest casualties of the global financial crisis due to their high levels of gearing, falling occupancy rates and downward property revaluations. As a result the S&P/ASX 200 property index fell ~79% from its 2007 peak. However, with property trusts now reducing debt and obtaining refinancing from the banks, the underperforming property trust sector looks worthy of investment. You can gain exposure to the S&P/ASX 200 listed property stocks through SLFSZX. SLF is an S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property exchange traded fund (ETF) which tracks the performance of the listed property stocks. Technicals

Source: IRESS

The chart above shows SLF over the past 18 months. After bottoming in March 2009, the ETF has developed a sustained medium term uptrend with higher lows and current resistance at $7.50. A breakout of $7.50 would be a bullish signal for a continued advance of the uptrend

SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund (SLFSZX) SPDR S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Fund (SLF) seeks to closely track, before fees and expenses, the returns and characteristics of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Trust Index. The approach is designed to provide a portfolio with low portfolio turnover, accurate tracking, and low costs.* The Index comprises the leading listed property vehicles in Australia and represents diversified exposure to the Australian listed property market. Exposure is diversified geographically across Australia’s major population centres and by sector across a range of property types, including industrial, commercial, retail and hotel/tourism.* *Source: IRESS

The breakdown of the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index is as follows: Security

Description

MktCap($)

MktWeight

WDC

Westfield Group

25,167,772,097

46.30%

SGP

Stockland

7,039,547,620

12.95%

GPT

GPT Group

4,096,636,126

7.54%

CFX

CFS Retail Property

3,553,926,494

6.54%

DXS

Dexus Property Group

3,384,606,240

6.23%

MGR

Mirvac Group

3,173,820,078

5.84%

CPA

Commonwealth Prop

1,634,763,680

3.01%

IOF

ING Office Fund

1,430,118,085

2.63%

GMG

Goodman Group

1,348,421,200

2.48%

MOF

Macquarie Office

1,016,127,900

1.87%

MCW

Macquarie Countrywid

717,642,730

1.32%

BWP

Bunnings Warehouse

580,178,793

1.07%

ABP

Abacus Property Grp.

384,546,012

0.71%

CHC

Charter Hall Group

325,218,125

0.60%

IIF

ING Industrial Fund

295,460,083

0.54%

AJA

Astro Jap Prop Trust

211,095,600

0.39%

SLF vs XJO (ex property trust) performance over the past 3 years

Source: IRESS

The chart above compares the returns from the S&P/ASX 200 – Ex-property and SLF. It can be seen that the listed property sector has been a big underperformer compared to the rest of the market and this underperformance has increased over the past month, despite property companies improving their balance sheets. Look for this underperformance to reverse as the listed property companies de-risk and sell underperforming assets.

Using SLFSZX to gain exposure to listed property index Take advantage of upside in the S&P/ASX 200 Listed Property Index through an RBS Self Funding Instalment, SLFSZX. Self Funding Instalments (SFIs) are a simple way to gain long term geared exposure to ASX-listed shares while receiving many of the major benefits of share ownership including exposure to share price movements, dividends and franking credits. KEY BENEFITS of the new RBS self funding instalments include: * NO PUT PROTECTION COST * Simple, transparent and Cost-effective * 1 for 1 movement with the underlying share (delta 1) * Gearing around 50% - Limited downside risk * No margin calls * Non-recourse loan - You can never lose more than your initial outlay * ATO product rulings - Perfectly suitable to be used in SMSF's * Listed - Can be sold at anytime * Can be exercised at any time - simply by paying back loan amount * RBS are the only product issuer in the market who can offer this product * A low interest rate of 7.46% per annum

Key details of SLFSZX Underlying

SFI Code

Instalment Payment

Stop Loss

Current Share Price

Approx. SFI Value

SLF

SLFSZX

$3.5267

$3.88

$7.38

$3.85

Reasons to buy SLF: * Listed property has significantly underperformed the rest of the market, particularly in the most recent rally * A major concern for the smaller property trusts has been refinancing debt, however banks are more likely to refinance the property trusts rather than taking the properties onto their own balance sheets and then having to manage them * Occupancy rates are still high, particularly in retail property which makes up a large proportion of the overall SLF portfolio (predominantly WDC) * Major property compmanies have undergone capital raisings to improve their balance sheets and de-risk * SLF offers an attractive yield with any franking credits an added bonus * SLF gives you exposure to the whole sector, which reduces the risk of being exposed to problems of any individual company.

STRATEGY – Using SLFSZX and WDCKZR to gain exposure to listed property ex-WDC For investors out there who are looking to gain exposure to a basket of listed property stocks without the 46% exposure to Westfield Group (WDC), a strategy to consider would be long SLFSZX and then short WDC thorugh WDCKZR MINI short. This strategy would give you upside exposure to all the stocks in SLF except WDC.

RBS warrants over SLF Security SLFSZX

ExPrc 4-Feb-19

Stop Loss 352.67

CP

ConvFac Call

1

Delta

Description 1

Self Funding Instalment

RBS Round Up Corner: Stocks Reporting This Week – COH,JBH,BHP,CBA,CPU,TLS,CCL,LEI Reporting season kicked off last week with results overall largely in line with expectation. This week some bigger names such as CBA, BHP and TLS are set to report. RBS Research are expecting company results to come in line or slightly ahead of expectations due to the long downgrade cycle over the past six months. RBS MINIs are a great way to trade company results this reporting season, from both a long or short view. Date 11 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug 12 Aug 12 Aug 13 Aug 13 Aug 14 Aug

Code COH JBH BHP CBA CPU TLS CCL LEI

Company

Y/E

Cochlear Limited JB Hi Fi BHP Billiton Comm Bank Computershare Telstra Corporation Coca Cola Amatil Leighton Holdings

Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Dec Jun

AUD AUD USD AUD USD AUD AUD AUD

NPAT (pre abs)

(Abs)

Div

EPS

2H div

Long Product

Short Product

137.4 92.3 10506 4104.4 291.3 3979 193.5 627.0

0.0 0.0 -4466 0.0 -6.1 0.0 0.0 -218.5

170.0c 37.0c 82.0c 228.0c 23.0c 28.0c 19.0c 107.0c

241.0c 90.0c 188.8c 279.6c 52.2c 32.0c 60.2c 215.3c

90.0c 22.0c 41.0c 106.0c

COHKZB

COHKZQ JBHKZP BHPKZR CBAKZT CPUKZP TLSKZP CCLKZP LEIKZP

14.0c 43.0c 47.0c

BHPKZD CBAKZN CPUKZB TLSKZD CCLKZA LEIKZI

Cochlear Limited (COH) • Slower Chinese sales, lower volume growth and currency are likely to adversely affect COH's FY09 result, which RBS Research expect to be towards the lower end of guidance range JB Hi Fi (JBH) • JBH has already upgraded on strong sales and margin. FY10 outlook (ex stimulus packages) likely to be the key driver and whether recent strong sales can continue BHP Billiton (BHP) • Reports in USD • While recent falls in commodity prices are likley to impact earnings, the change in costs will be a key focus as well as the management outlook for demand and prices Commonwealth Bank (CBA) • FY09 result is likely to show continued deterioration in economic conditions, albeit at a slower rate than peers given CBA's business mix and stronger domestic focus • Outlook for BDD’s will also be a focus and important for the sctor as a whole • The other focus will be the level of dividend paid out Computershare (CPU) • Reports in USD • Focus will be on volumes and market outlook

Telstra Corporation (TLS) • Expect the result to be at the low end of guidance, however a reliable and strong dividend will support the stock Coca Coal Amatil (CCL) • Strong summer should underpin double-digit 1H09 EPS growth and likely FY09 upgrades Leighton Holdings (LEI) • Expect surprise in the provision for firm guidance for FY10, with market attention likely to return to this forgotten favourite

NEW MINIs – ANZ, BHP, CSR, LEI, NAB, ORG, RIO Security

ExPrc

Stop Loss

CP

ConvFac

Delta

Description

ANZKZV

$

25.50

$

22.95

Short

1

1

MINI Short

BHPKZR

$

46.50

$

41.85

Short

1

1

MINI Short

BHPKZS

$

53.00

$

47.70

Short

1

1

MINI Short

CSRKZA

$

1.00

$

1.15

Long

1

1

MINI Long

CSRKZP

$

3.00

$

2.55

Short

1

1

MINI Short

LEIKZP

$

50.00

$

42.50

Short

1

1

MINI Short

NABKZT

$

31.12

$

28.01

Short

1

1

MINI Short

ORGKZP

$

20.00

$

18.00

Short

1

1

MINI Short

RIOKZS

$

80.00

$

72.00

Short

1

1

MINI Short

For further information please do not hesitate to contact us on the details below

Contact Equities Structured Products & Warrants Toll free

1800 450 005

www.rbs.com.au/warrants

Ben Smoker

02 8259 2085

[email protected]

Robbie Taylor

02 8259 2018

[email protected]

Ryan Corrigan

02 8259 2425

[email protected]

Elizabeth Tian

02 8259 2017

[email protected]

Tania Smyth

02 8259 2023

[email protected]

Robert Deutsch

02 8259 2065

[email protected]

Mark Tisdell

02 8259 6951

[email protected]

Trading Products Team

Investment Products Team

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been prepared by RBS Equities (Australia) Limited (“RBS”) (ABN 84 002 768 701) (AFS Licence No 240530) (“RBS Equities”) and has been taken from sources believed to be reliable. RBS Equities does not make representations that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Any opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this report are the views of RBS Equities at the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. RBS Equities and its affiliated companies may make markets in the securities discussed. RBS Equities, its affiliated companies and their employees from time to time may hold shares, options, rights and warrants on any issue contained in this report and may, as principal or agent, sell such securities. RBS Equities may have acted as manager or co-manager of a public offering of any such securities in the past three years. RBS Equities’ affiliates may provide, or have provided banking services or corporate finance to the companies referred to in this report. The knowledge of affiliates concerning such services may not be reflected in this report. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment. RBS Equities, in preparing this report, has not taken into account an individual client’s investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before a client makes an investment decision, a client should, with or without RBS Equities’ assistance, consider whether any advice contained in this report is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. It is unreasonable to rely on any recommendation without first having consulted with your adviser for a personal securities recommendation. This information contained in this report is general advice only. RBS Equities, its officers, directors, employees and agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the information contained in this report. This Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. If you are located outside Australia and use this Information, you are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulation. This report may not be taken or distributed, directly or indirectly into the United States, or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1993, as amended. The warrants contained in this report are issued by RBS Group (Australia) Pty Limited (ABN 78 000 862 797, AFS Licence No. 247013). The Product Disclosure Statements relating to these warrants are available upon request from RBS Equities or on our website www.rbs.com.au/warrants © Copyright 2009. RBS Equities. A Participant of the ASX Group.

Explanation of Warrant Tables: Security – refers to the code ascribed to the warrant, ExDate – refers to the date on which the warrant expires or is reset, ExPrc – refers to the exercise price, or second instalment payment, CP – tells you whether the warrant is a call or a put, ConvFac – the conversion factor of the warrant which tells you how many warrants you need to exercise in order to take possession of 1 share, Delta – tells you how much the warrant will move for a 1c move in the underlying security, Description – Tells you the type of warrant. All charts taken from IRESS unless indicated otherwise