THIN KING
HIG HW AYS NORTH AMERICAN EDITION Volume 2 • Issue 1 • April/May 2007
SUNNY SPELLS LATER
Amy Zuckerman and Al Gullon examine transportation’s role in our changing climate PUBLIC LIABILITY
Phil Tarnoff wonders if we are doing enough to cure the highway fatality pandemic
LEARNING ENABLED
GNSS goes back to school
UNBELIEVABLE TRUTH
Yuka Gomi, Rick Weiland and Valerie Shuman’s guide to ITS fallacies
SHARING THE LOAD
The plus-points of collocated TMCs the
INTELLIGENT
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Foreword Thinking
Kevin Borras is publishing director of H3B Media and editor-in-chief of Thinking Highways North American Edition.
Back for good
There’s nothing quite like feeling entirely vindicated. Just ask KEVIN BORRAS. Or better still, let him tell you You really didn’t think that would be our one and only issue, did you? Shame on you, oh ye of little faith. If you’ve tried calling us over the past few months and been put through to our recorded selves and thought “where are they, then?” and imagined that we were scrabbling around for articles and adverts, then we forgive you. Since we launched Thinking Highways at the ITS World Congress our feet have barely touched the ground. We’ve spent many a long hour explaining our vision for a multimedia transportation future to a multitude of people and have so far received nothing but positive responses and reactions. To us, this is vindication that we have got the angle of approach right. There’s no need to take our word for it, either. How about this from a highly satisfied reader: “I actually need to force myself to get through many of these somewhat dry industry publications, it’s sort of a necessary evil. That is until now of course, and for that I am most grateful to you. Thanks for making it interesting for a change!”
Editor-in-Chief Kevin Borras (
[email protected])
Valerie Shuman, Phil Tarnoff, Rick Weiland, Harold Worrall, Amy Zuckerman
Sales and Marketing Luis Hill (
[email protected])
Sub-Editor and Proofreader Maria Vasconcelos
Design and Layout Phoebe Bentley, Kevin Borras
Subscriptions and Circulation Pilarin Harvey-Granell Visualisation Tom Waldschmidt Conferences and Events Odile Pignier Website Code Liquid
Guest Designers The Design Dell (pages 38-47) www.design-dell.co.uk Associate Editor Amy Zuckerman Contributing Editors Bruce Abernethy, Richard Bishop, Andrew Pickford, Phil Sayeg, Phil Tarnoff, Darryll Thomas, Harold Worrall Contributors to this issue Bruce Abernethy, Lisa Burgess, Jon Chambers, Pete Costello, Yuka Gomi, Bern Grush, Al Gullon, Zeljko Jeftic, Mark Johnson, Bob Kelly, Paul Kompfner, Greg Krueger, Paul Najarian,
Financial Director Martin Brookstein EDITORIAL AND ADVERTISING H3B Media Ltd, 15 Onslow Gardens, Wallington, Surrey SM6 9QL, UK Tel +44 (0)870 919 3770 Fax +44 (0)870 919 3771 Email
[email protected]
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Or this from an industry expert: “Your first issue contained some of the most fascinating and thoughtprovoking articles I’ve read in years. We all know that a lot of this technology is brilliant, but the real brilliance is in how you implement and integrate it. Marvellous stuff!” These were just two of dozens of congratulatory emails and calls we’ve received (and we also got a lovely hand-written letter from Thailand) and we’re now hoping that this next batch of three issues (including Thinking Highways Europe/ Rest of the World and our road pricing title, ETC, etc, will illicit such similarly heart-warming correspondence. However, you won’t find out if you don’t register! Just go to the H3B Media TransPortal at www.h3bmedia.com and it’ll only take you a minute. While you are there, I’d like to invite you to also register for the online versions of all three of our titles as well.You read them just like you would a printed magazine; they load almost instantly as they open as images in your web browser; Thinking Highways
they are ‘published’ up to two weeks before the printed versions and you can have free access to the Europe/Rest of the World edition, too. What more incentive do you need? Other highly innovative features will be and indeed are available on the TransPortal so please take a look. Two notes of differing fortune to end on. Firstly, the sad news that James Joseph, one of our contributing editors, died last month. His obituary appears on page 16. The good news is that we are delighted to welcome awardwinning author, journalist and consultant Amy Zuckerman as associate editor. Besides producing her usual thoughtful content for the publication, Amy will be developing conferences worldwide for H3B Media on the theme of traffic management and climate control.You will find two articles on this subject in this edition, one by Amy, who has also written a startling piece on truck security. Finally, if you’d like to contribute something to our June issue, please give it some thought... TH
is published by H3B Media Ltd.
ISSN 1753-43Z1 Thinking Highways is published quarterly in two editions – North America and Europe/Rest of the World - and is available on subscription at £30/€40 (Europe/RoW) and US$60 (North America). Distributed in the USA by DSW 75 Aberdeen Road, Emigsville, PA 17318-0437 USA. Periodicals postage paid at Emigsville, PA. POSTMASTER: send address changes to Thinking Highways, 401 S W Water Street, Suite 201B, Peoria, Illinois 61602, USA.
Managing Director Luis Hill Publishing Director Kevin Borras www.h3bmedia.com
Although due care has been taken to ensure that the content of this publication is accurate and up-to-date, the publisher can accept no liability for errors and omissions. Unless otherwise stated, this publication has not tested products or services that are described herein, and their inclusion does not imply any form of endorsement. By accepting advertisements in this publication, the publisher does not warrant their accuracy, nor accept responsibility for their contents. The publisher welcomes unsolicited manuscripts and illustrations but can accept no liability for their safe return. © 2007 H3B Media Ltd. All rights reserved. The views and opinions of the authors are not necessarily those of H3B Media Ltd. Reproduction (in whole or in part) of any text, photograph or illustration contained in this publication without the written permission of the publisher is strictly prohibited. Printed in the UK by Stones the Printers
Thinking Highways Vol 2 No 1
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COLUMNS Bob Kelly and Mark Johnson
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Paul Najarian’s Connected World
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Harold Worrall’s Bright Ideas
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OBITUARY James Joseph, 1924-2007
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CONTENTS
THE THINKER ITS guru Phil Tarnoff’s thoughts on the 21st Century’s ‘forgotten’ killing fields: highways.
COVER STORY
Far from being one of the causes of global warming, Amy Zuckerman suggests that transportation could be helping the climate Al Gullon gives the whole transportation and climate change debate a politically scientific angle Homeland Security
The people or their sun?
KEVIN AGUIGUI looks at the potential for digital video for surveillance and homeland security purposes and wonders if we’ve come as far as we should have done…
Cover Story The question, “Why is there another global warming article in Thinking Highways?” was answered just as I finally started to put my thoughts onto paper. The radio reported on the UK’s “60 per cent by 2050” announcement and the news was not good on two fronts, except for those moved more by faith or photo opportunities than science. Not good, because that grandiose goal ignores both the economic benefits of improving productivity – for every member of our human society – and, with respect to the required/expected improvements in fuel efficiency, the iron ‘law of diminishing returns’, not to mention several past and recent scientific developments. Not good, because of the probability that the pursuit of such a false and unattainable goal will divert material and human resources, in the ITS community as elsewhere, into dead ends (e.g. CO2 payments to governments who have so abused both their citizens and their economy that their productivity is already in decline) at the same time as everyone’s standard of living declines in tempo with decreasing productivity.
Enough of the ‘why’, now for the ‘what’
When the Kyoto Accord and the working methods of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) first came to my attention I was, pensioned off after 23 years as a technocrat with Environment Canada, initially very understanding, even sympathetic, at seeing the work of the climatologists severely misrepresented in summaries and sound bites prepared by the politicians. Later, when it appeared that at least some of my fellow scientists were pre-misrepresenting their work in order
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In the second of our features looking at transportation’s role in our changing climate, AL GULLON , a specialist in i i i
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BIOMETRICS Amy Zuckerman on TWIC, the hottest topic in commercial transportation THINKING DIFFERENTLY Bern Grush looks at how the different schools of thought at work in the world of GNSS aren’t really helping its global take-up. A 10-page feature created by The Design Dell
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TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT Lisa Burgess and Jon Chambers on the pros and (so far no) cons of collocated TMCs
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CHINA A traffic and transport travelogue, courtesy of Bruce Abernethy and his digital camera
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CO-OPERATIVE VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS Is CVIS Europe’s version of VII or is that doing both a dis-service? ERTICO’s Paul Kompfner and Zeljko Jeftic explain 76
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DSRC Thinking Highways talks to some of the industry’s major players for the lowdown on DSRC WAVE 80
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TELEMATICS Ever wondered what four things are holding back the telematics industry? Yuka Gomi, Rick Weiland and Valerie Shuman elucidate VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION Greg Krueger focuses on the infrastructure side of VII with a look at Michigan DOT’s literally ground-breaking camera lowering project Advertisers Index
THE THOUGHT PROCESS Pete Costello, ITS Program Manager, PBS&J
www.h3bmedia.com
Thinking Highways Vol 2 No 1
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Robert Kelly and Mark Johnson
No jam today Are we entering a new era for private involvement in transportation? In May 2006, the US Department of Transportation (DOT or Department) announced a multi-prong initiative to alleviate congestion in the United States. Originating in 2005’s SAFETEA-LU (Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users) legislation, the “National Strategy to Reduce Congestion on America’s Transportation Network” program targets congestion on highways, urban roadways, shipping corridors (trucks and waterways) and airports. Initial project proposals are due to DOT at the end of April 2007 for metropolitan areas to test congestion mitigation solutions. Previous federal transportation legislation has included programs and dedicated funding intended to alleviate congestion. What appears new in the most recent anti-congestion program is the apparent emphasis on soliciting private sector investment and management, but just how far the Department is willing to accept private sector involvement is not yet known. Multiple factors are cited by DOT for seeking greater private sector involvement. Highway congestion has increased significantly, both in extent and duration. Transportation infrastructure is aging and construction costs for new capacity are escalating. At the same time, federal and state governments
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are facing competing spending priorities and voter resistance to new taxes. Many states are facing a backlog of unfunded transportation projects or “unfunded liabilities,” both for maintenance of existing infrastructure and new construction. The Department
“USDOT cites several benefits from increased private participation in transportation projects” notes also that the federal gasoline tax was last raised in 1993 and, accordingly, has lost much of its “purchasing power.” In addition, increased vehicle fuel efficiency has resulted in less revenue per mile of usage. If the present level of gas tax is not raised, it is estimated that the Federal Highway Account will either be empty or in the red by the end of Fiscal Year 2009. These conditions are not necessarily new and not unknown previously. However, what appears new in the Department’s thinking is the conclusion that the current transportation system is functioning poorly (i.e., increasing congestion) because of a lack of pricing. This conclusion, moreover, has apparently led the Department to seek new vehicles for private sector investment and
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management. DOT has long had in place multiple programs and mechanisms to attract private sector investment, such as Private Activity Bonds, designbuild contracting, State Infrastructure Banks, and TIFIA (Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act). Indeed, in succeeding transportation bills, Congress has provided increasing amounts of funding and expanded the universe of eligible projects. These existing programs, however, are designed primarily to attract private capital but not private management and financial controls. According to DOT emerging tolling technologies make it possible to address both funding shortfalls as well as use demand management techniques to improve system performance. DOT’s congestion mitigation program includes grants for deployment of “value pricing,” “HOT lanes,” and other ITS technologies that have shown an ability to mitigate congestion. DOT cites several benefits from increased private participation in transportation projects. According to DOT, the private sector is able to provide more certainly on timing, both for accelerating project start-up and timely completion. More private investment frees up state and federal resources for other priorities and helps to address needs that cannot be met with existing public funding. In addition, the risk of cost
Robert Kelly is a partner with the Washington, DC based law firm Squire, Sanders, Dempsey
Mark Johnson is an attorney at law with Squire, Sanders, Dempsey’s Buenos Aires, Argentina office
www.h3bmedia.com
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Robert RobertKelly Kellyand andMark MarkJohnson Johnson
overruns can be shifted from state and local governments to the private sector. Finally, as noted above, the private sector brings improved operational efficiency through greater use of pricing mechanisms. Despite this apparent new emphasis on garnering more private sector involvement, it is not clear how far the Department is willing to go. There are still significant restrictions on where and how states deploy tolling and, by extension, new pricing mechanisms. New tolls can be deployed on new infrastructure. Existing tolls can be updated with new technologies. Absent new legislative authority, new tolls – and pricing mechanisms – generally cannot be added to existing infrastructure.
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Moreover, public acceptance of increased use of tolling in the United States is not strong. The public is accustomed to paying fuel taxes. Tolls, especially new tolling deployments, are often viewed as a secondary tax on top of what is already paid in the form of fuel taxes. Electronic tolling has made an impact, especially in large urban areas such as New York City, but that region already had extensive tolling for many years prior to the introduction of the E-Z Pass system. There is also some question as to the form of private sector involvement. Clearly, the Department is looking for increased financial investment from the private sector, both directly and through its existing funding programs. The Department, however, notes that many states’ laws restrict private sector involvement in so-called “public-private partnerships” (PPPs) for transportation. The three states with the most comprehensive laws for PPPs, Florida, Texas and Virginia, have also received the most private investment. DOT calls on other states to
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liberalize their laws and regulations to make it easier to attract private investment. The Department cites three specific examples of existing PPPs: long-term lease to operate existing facilities; reconstruction and/or expansion and operation of existing facilities; and construction and operation of new facilities. The first of these, the longterm lease, is not without controversy. The leading example is probably the Indiana Toll Road. In April 2006, the state signed a 75-year lease with a SpanishAustralian consortium, which will operate, maintain and improve the 157-mile highway. The consortium paid the state US$3.85billion at the outset, which the state plans to use to fund a backlog of some 200 other transportation projects. There was some opposition in the state to the deal, some of it based on the fact that the Toll Road was being “sold” to a non-American entity and uncertainty as to the potential long-term risk to the state. In addition, there was some concern that the lease permitted the consortium to raise the amount of the tolls (although only upon application to the state and to specific levels). Whether the Indiana Toll Road deal is a harbinger of many more such deals in the United States is not yet known. The Department of Transportation, however, is clearly pushing for more private sector investment and management in transportation projects, and seems open as to the potential form and structure of such involvement. Moreover, the Department is relying on the benefits available from new tolling and pricing technologies as a critical development that makes private investment – and the potential returns – more attractive. TH www.h3bmedia.com
Paul Paul Najarian’s Najarian Connected World
Generation game Incident management is progressing from Basic 911 to NG9-1-1 Recent announcements by New York City 911 stating that they are now able to receive cell phone images and videos from the public as an added tool for incident management, emergency response or fighting crime prompts a review of the progress made from Basic 911 to Next Generation 911. It is difficult and lengthy to assemble all the information in a short paper as there are many facets to this progression. For example, one could simply address the legislative aspects, or the regulatory implications, or the technological advances in this field, or the implementation from a Public Safety Answering Points’ (PSAP) perspective, or the institutional issues. One thing for sure is that these facets are not exclusive of one another. In the United States, 911 is the universal emergency assistance number. The 911 service (or Basic 911) did not become truly universal until the passage of the Wireless Communications and Public Safety Act of 1999 (“911 Act”). One provision of the 911 Act directed the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to make 911 the universal emergency number for all telephone services. Where other emergency numbers had been used, the FCC was directed to establish appropriate transition periods for areas in which 911 was not
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in use as an emergency telephone number. Based on their reports, wireless carriers have virtually completed the transition to 911 as the national emergency number. State and local authorities continue to expand 911 coverage and upgrade 911
“One thing for sure is that these facets are not exclusive of one another” service. Although there may be some counties that still do not have basic 911 service, wireless carriers can deliver 911 calls to the appropriate local emergency authority.
Paul Najarian was director of telecoms at ITS America from 1996-2006. He can be contacted via email:
[email protected]
to the FCC. The NPRM called for a twophase implementation of E911. Under Phase I, wireless carriers were required to provide the PSAPs with a callback number and the location of the nearest cell cite (or sector) receiving a 911 call. An 1 April 1998 deadline was set for Phase I; which may be described as a “caller-ID.” The Phase II implementation required wireless carriers to provide to PSAPs the location of all 911 calls by longitude and latitude beginning 1 October 2001. A location accuracy requirement of 100m for 67 per cent of the calls, and 300m for 95 per cent of the calls was established as a criteria or guideline.
Phased array
The Phase I and II plans were developed as a Consensus Although the statutory Agreement, filed with the FCC, authority to mandate a between the Cellular universal (Basic) 911 system Telecommunications and was not executed legislatively Internet Association (CTIA) until 1999, the Federal and three Public Safety Communications Commission organizations (the Association (FCC) had already initiated a of Public-Safety Communiregulatory proceeding to cations Officials International implement a wireless (APCO), the National Enhanced 911 (E911) back in Emergency Number 1994. Association (NENA), and the On 19 October 1994, the FCC National Association of State issued a Notice of Proposed Nine One One Administrators Rulemaking (NPRM) for E911. (NASNA)). This docket, registered as No. The FCC decided to rely on 94-102, has already received this Consensus Agreement for nearly 7,000 public filings, and the industry to monitor and possibly holds a record for the police itself, rather than number of waivers submitted establish strict enforcement.
Proceeding wirelessly
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This, however, resulted in a record number of waiver requests by wireless carriers and manufacturers as the established deadlines for the phased implementation were rarely met, except for a handful of locations. From a technological perspective, the debate centered on who and what technology can best meet the Automatic Location Identification (ALI) requirements for Phase II, noting that the Phase I Automatic Number Identification (ANI) was fairly straight forward.
Arrival information
The debate between Time of Arrival (TOA) and Angle of Arrival (AOA) algorithms was quite substantial among the companies involved and their associated patents. Both TOA and AOA dictated a networkbased implementation where a triangulation technique with cell sites was used to locate a caller. Technological advances also allowed for the development of handsetbased solutions with embedded GPS chipsets. As a result, on 6 October 1999, the FCC issued a third Report & Order in the 94-102 docket to accommodate a handsetbased solution with stricter accuracy requirement to 50m for 67 per cent of the calls, and 150m for 95 per cent. It also established market penetration requirements and milestones for handset-based solution providers. With the new requirements in place, the lines were clearly drawn among carriers and handset manufacturers who designated a network-based solution and those who designated a handset-based solution. Regardless of the solution, however, the technologies associated with E911 were (and still are) extremely vital for the delivery of Location
Based Services (LBS) and telematics applications. The Intelligent Vehicle Highway Society (IVHS-America), currently known as ITS America, recognized the importance of the E911 docket with filings with the FCC, as far back as 1994. In its filings, IVHS-America stressed the need for a rapid and ubiquitous deployment of E911 as a critical enabler of ITS services and applications.
Adopt and deploy
Although the FCC adopted a number of Orders in October 2001 to reassert its enforcement authority, the deployment and rollout of E911 is largely governed by decisions on request for waivers. Recognizing that 911 (or E911) does not fall under the jurisdiction of any of the
“In FY2004, the USDOT had decided on a tiered approach for the selection of ITS initiatives” Administration’s Departments, the US Department of Transportation stepped in to facilitate a consensus building role between the wireless carriers and the public safety organizations. A Secretarial Initiative for Wireless E911 was established and a report published to educate state and local governments and PSAPs on the benefits of wireless E911 services. As a result of the Secretarial Initiative and other activities, a major theme began to emerge. Wireless E911 is a national issue that requires national and federal attention coupled with critical funding; however, Wireless E911 is funded, deployed and operated at the local level.
Language talk
Section 3011 (Enhance 911) of the “Digital Television Transition and Public Safety Act of 2005” (Public Law 109171, Title III of the “Deficit Reduction Act of 2005”) provides the statutory language and associated funding for the establishment of a E-911 Implementation Coordination Office (ICO). Congress requested that the National Telecommunication and Information Administration (NTIA) and the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration (NHTSA) jointly establish the E-911 ICO. US$43.5m were made available by Congress. In September 2006, the US$13.7billion proceeds from the Advanced Wireless Services (AWS) spectrum auctions in the 1710-1755 MHz band were the source of funding for the ICO. In Fiscal Year 2004, the US Department of Transportation had decided on a tiered approach for the selection of ITS initiatives. The initiatives, which were entirely technology-based, required a clear federal role and an associated publicprivate partnership. The first nine major initiatives (or Tier 1 initiatives), that could make an immediate impact, were announced at the 2004 ITS America Annual Meeting.
No great surprise
Next Generation 911, which, at the time of the announcement, was not clearly defined, was among the nine major initiatives. While the industry was still addressing various Wireless E911 challenges, such as deployment of E911, routing of Automatic Collision Notification (ACN) calls, sunsetting of analog cellular infrastructure, the announcement was not a total surprise as the program and US DOT’s continued leadership role in
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Paul Najarian’s Connected World In other words, the joint ICO has no jurisdiction or oversight of the NG9-1-1 program. A Congressional amendment may be required in order to give the joint ICO any say regarding NG9-1-1. Meanwhile, US DOT has moved ahead with the development of a system architecture for NG9-1-1 and a contract award in December 2006, while no grants have been disbursed for Wireless E911 by the joint ICO.
Emergency debate
“Many things have evolved from Basic 911 to NG9-1-1 across all the facets of the program” the E911 program were quite visionary. The wireless industry was now facing new challenges from wireless data networks, and voice networks that employ Voice-over-the Internet Protocol (VoIP). These challenges require a new approach for the delivery of E911 services; hence the Next Generation 911 initiative.
Validation process
As a first step, the USDOT published a preliminary concept of operations for NG9-1-1. And, in December 2006, it issued a two-year contract, valued at US$4.4m, to Booz Allen Hamilton to develop and validate the requirements for the NG9-1-1 system, define a system
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architecture, and develop a transition plan for implementing nationwide IPbased emergency services. Although NG9-1-1 appears to be the next logical progression to Wireless E911, programmatically they are separate and distinct. The Digital Television Transition and Public Safety Act of 2005, which established the joint NTIA/NHTSA E-911 ICO, was signed into law in February 2006. The statute and language are very clear and specific about E911. Among its activities, the joint ICO is to develop grant criteria and disburse grant funds from the US$43.5m allocation, for the deployment of Wireless E911. The statute is totally silent about NG9-1-1.
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Many things have evolved from Basic 911 to NG9-1-1 across all the facets of the program (legislative, regulatory, technological, deployment, and institutional). For example, the technical debate that once raged between TOA versus AOA, or between network-based versus handset-based solutions, has now shifted over to the Emergency Services Interconnection Forum (a joint standardization forum under the auspices of the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solution (ATIS) and NENA)). An ESIF subcommittee on Next Generation Emergency Services is now defining the requirements for and specifications of an IPMultimedia Subsystem (IMS) functional architecture for NG9-1-1. So, instead of TOA and AOA, the new technical challenges are IMS and VoIP. Over the past 13 years (since the opening of the FCC’s NPRM in docket 94-102), a couple of challenges have consistently remained, while the program has evolved from Basic to NG9-1-1. NG9-1-1 is not a state and local problem. It is a national problem that requires a national solution, including funding. While NG9-1-1 is technically feasible, Next Generation 911 cannot be implemented without next generation of thinking. TH www.h3bmedia.com
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Harold Worrall’s Bright Ideas
Harold Worrall’s Bright Ideas
Are you sitting comfortably? US concessions: so what happens when the music stops? Who’ll be left chairless? The parlour game of musical chairs is played with a number of people seated when the music begins the participants walk or dance around the chairs until the music stops whereupon everyone scrambles for a seat. The catch is that each time the music starts, one chair is removed. Consequently, one person in the group is left standing without a seat and they are removed from the game. Who is likely to left standing in the development of US concessions? When the project has fully matured and all costs and revenues are known, who
will be the winners and losers. Recent articles by financial experts have projected that the original equity investment in some US brownfield projects will be returned in just over a decade of operation as original equity is replaced with increasing debt and new equity investors. Greenfield projects are also under public pressure. A recent public audit was quite critical of the negotiations process for a major US project. The audit was critical of the lack of public knowledge of the negotiations and the “true cost” of the project in interest cost and equity return.
Political fudge
Concession investments tend to be somewhat complex and for most citizens, it is difficult to understand what is lost or gained when political leaders allow toll facilities to be leased on a long term basis or when large greenfield projects are negotiated behind closed doors. Since these projects have traditionally been in the public domain, it is difficult to understand these new approaches to transportation infrastructure development. Understandably the public may be concerned about being the last person standing when the music stops. Who is likely to be without a chair? Will it be the company that paid too much for a property, the investors who put money into the project or will it be the public? Partial answers to this question are becoming evident.
All about the gas
To understand the public concerns, we must understand the history of transportation in the US. Since 1916 transportation has been funded by the gasoline tax. It paid for the massive “hard road” construction of the 1920s and 30s and the interstate highway system that is still the envy of economically developing countries. All of that infrastructure now has to be maintained from gas tax funding. In addition, new capacity has to be built to
Dr Harold Worrall is president of Transportation Innovations and is past chair of ITS Florida, ITS America and the International Bridge, Tunnel and Turnpike Association (IBTTA). From 1992 until 2004 he was executive director of the Orlando-Orange County Expressway Authority
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Transurban Group pioneered full electronic tolling on its first Australian asset—CityLink in Melbourne. Just 10 years later, we’re one of the top 10 toll road investors and managers worldwide, with major assets in Melbourne and Sydney in Australia, and in Virginia in the US. As an active manager, we work closely with key stakeholders to deliver innovative network solutions and real community benefits, today and into the future.
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KEEPING CITIES MOVING For more information visit www.transurban.com
Paul Harold Najarian Worrall’s Bright Ideas relieve congestion and compete with China, India and the EU. Gasoline tax as a funding source has however “hit the wall” politically. There is little support for further increases in that source. It is a nonstarter in most if not all political circles and there is a trend toward direct user fees. Another solution is for government to borrow the money needed. For the last half of the 20th century the US did just that. The Pennsylvania turnpike showed the way as a precursor to the interstate system and was followed by New Jersey, New York, Florida and other states during the 1950s and 60s. In addition to turnpikes, urban expressways began to appear especially in states where growth occurred mostly in the last half of the 20th Century.
Roll out the barrel
The federal government has only recently begun to consider the option of borrowing to build infrastructure. The history has been one of “cash on the barrel head.” The attraction of private capital as a partial solution to the transportation funding gap is a relatively recent development. From discussion in the 1990s, Public Private Partnerhships, PPP have become the solution of choice. New York investment banks were traditionally engaged in supporting the sale of tax exempt debt for the toll industry. Now they are engaged in accumulating private equity commitments for infrastructure investment. Most have raised US$3-4billion in commitments. Considering the rule of thumb that concession investments are structured with 25 per cent equity and 75 per cent private debt, considerable infrastructure funds are
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available for the US market and this excludes the considerable funds available from Europe and Australia.
Mind the gap
If US$100billion in equity commitments have been raised in the US and a similar amount is available outside the US, there is nearly US$1trillion available for transportation investment in the US. There is a large funding gap in the US and there appears to be a large source of private capital available to fill the gap, so what is the problem? The first major concessions in the US have been long term leases of existing toll facilities and Brownfield projects. These long term leases lead to many questions. The term of the lease is well beyond any reasonable planning horizon where some level of predictability exists. The lease amounts have been surprisingly high and there has been concern about foreign ownership of public assets and a general loss of public input.
Take your seat
So who is likely to be left without a chair? To answer this we must delve into the deal structure. First, each project has its own corporate structure. This limits the risk to the major concessionaire to the amount of the original investment. Large fees are extracted from the new project corporation up front for constructing the deal and as the project matures, rates are raised, efficiencies are implemented and profits are maximized. Accordingly, the return on investment increases. It is the old story of using other people’s money to make money. As original equity funds are reduced, they are replaced by a commensurate amount of debt.
Vol 2 No 1 Thinking Highways
Failure rate
So what happens if the project begins to fail because the rate increases are so severe that the traffic begins to reduce and it becomes difficult to support the dividend expectations for equity investors and the need to pay the costs of debt? Because many of the facilities under long term leases have a history of not increasing toll rates for extended periods, there is a considerable amount of toll rate elasticity built in to the project. As the lessor begins to increase rates, there will be a point beyond which increasing rates will not maximize revenue. Who is without a chair at this point? Since this will likely not occur for some time after the closing of the lease, the original investors will likely be financially whole, will have collected significant up front fees and will have resold the debt and even the equity interests several times. The blank space where a chair once sat seems to be reserved for those who purchase a share of the equity from the original investor and may not even be reserved for the debt purchaser if the circumstances become deteriorated enough to take out the equity holders. This is not to say that all concessions, private equity approaches or even Brownfield leases should be avoided. It simply says that the public sector who is entering into concession projects of any kind must always keep the long term interests of the public in a first priority position. What may appear as a great deal today, may look less so over time. Renegotiation provisions and maintaining the financial risk with the initial investor should be an inherent consideration. TH This article also appears in a different form in ETC, etc
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