Thesun 2008-11-06 Page20 The Upstart With A Dream

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theSun

| THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6 2008

INTERVIEWS VIEWS

LONDON: Two large gunships swooped across the inky blackness of a Virginia sky as Barack Obama’s motorcade drove into view. He would not become president-elect for a further 21 hours or so, but it already felt like the torch had been handed over. Knowing victory was within his grasp, Obama dispensed with much of his stock speech on Monday night, to reflect on the vicissitudes of the campaign. A little more than a year ago, he recalled, he was far behind in the polls, unable even to secure the endorsement of many black politicians who figured he could never beat Hillary Clinton. He was all but written off as a talented but fundamentally inexperienced upstart. But the story of Obama is one of being constantly underestimated by his opponents. From his earliest days as a community organiser on the south side of Chicago he revealed a talent for motivating people who thought they were powerless. As a young politician, hungry with thwarted ambition, his intellect, self-confidence, astonishing networking skills and a capacity to charm people into supporting him, turned him from a lowly Illinois senator into a political superstar. His election remains nevertheless a story of extraordinary talent and self-discipline, along with some fortunate timing. With a first name that rhymes with Iraq, a middle name of the former dictator of that country and a surname that even American television anchors confuse with Osama bin Laden, the 47-year-old was always going to be a hard sell with America’s so-called “low information” voters. But if one theme has emerged from his meteoric rise from community organiser in the Chicago ghetto to the mansion on 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, it is his capacity to turn apparently fatal weaknesses into powerful political weapons. Exactly a year ago, Obama was lagging 33 points behind Clinton in the opinion polls, and his supporters were in despair. Two gut-wrenching presidential election losses to George Bush in a row had taught Democrats that a winning candidate needed to retaliate against attacks quickly if he was to avoid the fate of John Kerry and Al Gore. The pundits concluded that the Democratic race was all but over, and national magazines had already put Clinton’s face on their covers as the presumptive Democratic nominee. The polls, and the money pouring into her war chest, told them she had to win, but they did not count on the tsunami of enthusiasm that the Obama campaign would unleash. Yet, as he headed into the crowded contest for the Democratic nomination, the Illinois Senator had several advantages over his opponents. He was the ultimate outsider at a time when voters were desperate for change in the way Washington is run. And as a

The upstart with a dream ONE YEAR AGO, HE WAS BEHIND IN THE POLLS AND HIS CAMPAIGN WAS BEING WRITTEN OFF. LEONARD DOYLE REPORTS ON HOW OBAMA UPSET THE ODDS

First family ... Obama with his daughters Natasha (second from left) and Malia and his wife Michelle acknowledge the crowd’s cheers at Grant Park in Chicago, Illinois after his address yesterday. – EPA

by Hamish McRae LONDON: It is a devastating inheritance. The 44th president of the United States takes over an economy that is in recession, and coping with that will surely dominate the first part of his term of office. But there is something even bigger stalking the US economy and that is its longer-term dependence on foreign investors being prepared to carry on financing it – in effect, buying up America. To wean the country off such dependence will be even harder than shepherding it through the downturn. Cyclical problems eventually solve themselves; structural ones don’t. Still, this cycle is starting to look much nastier, with prospects suddenly deteriorating in the past few weeks, even days. Until September the US seemed to be coming through the downturn in somewhat better shape than Europe or the UK. But now the US economy seems to have hit a wall. Consumers are cutting back radically; house prices are still falling; companies are finding it hard to borrow and hence slashing investment; unemployment is rising; and, a practical issue for the new

Tough challenges president, the government deficit is ballooning. The Federal Reserve has cut its overnight interest rate to 1 per cent but so far that has had little effect, and obviously at that level has no more ammunition left. If a rate of 1 per cent does not help the economy, why should half a per cent or even zero? As a result of these darkening economic conditions, Americans have become both angry and frightened: angry because of the excesses and stupidities of Wall Street and frightened because as the malaise has spread beyond the financial community to the real economy they have begun to suffer directly. That fear shows in a catastrophic loss of consumer confidence. In October car sales were down 31 per cent on the previous year, the worst month for the industry since 1991. Allow for population growth and it was arguably the worst month for sales since the 1950s. So the first challenge for the new president will be to help Americans recover their sense

of optimism. Franklin D. Roosevelt had to combat that when he took over in the very much worse economic conditions of 1933. Those famous words in his Inaugural Address are worth quoting in full: “So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself – nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.” It is thanks in part to the folk memory of the catastrophic policies that deepened the 1930s depression that the US authorities, indeed the world’s monetary authorities, have sprung into action, rescuing banks so that depositors don’t lose any money and pumping liquidity into the system so that the banks can continue lending. But if the financial institutions are probably past the very worst of the crisis, their recovery has hardly begun. Meanwhile, the real economy is still heading downhill and at an increasing speed. There is no wand that the