The Long Term Problem Of The Racing Industry (updated Copy)

The Long Term Problem Of The Racing Industry Over the years several arguments have been posed to explain the decline in racing and how to revive the industry. Some called for the removal of the track from its current location, others have called for the privatization of Caymanas Park Limited. However as can be seen from the tables below, the problem facing the racing industry has nothing to do with the race program of Caymanas Track Limited. Number of Races and Starters Calendar Year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

Race Days 83 83 91 89 81 70 87 65 89 83 90 93 80 82

Races

846 827 886 835 776 641 809 643 925 876 942 998 841 865

Starters Average Average per per Day Race 8752 105.4 10.3 9260 111.5 11.2 9341 103.6 10.5 9122 102.4 10.9 8975 110.8 11.6 6779 96.8 10.6 8271 95.1 10.2 6330 97.4 9.8 8860 101.9 9.6 8460 99.5 9.6 9744 108.2 10.3 10051 108.1 10.1 7519 93.98 8.9 8166 99.58 9.4

Source: The Jamaica Racing Commission

As can be seen there is no significant difference in the offering of Caymanas Track Limited in the late 1970s as compared with the offering in recent years. Equally it could not be said, that the decline in the fortunes of racing has any direct relationship with the distribution of purse money. As can be seen from the table and the graph below, owners and breeders have been doing relatively well given the state of the industry.

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Calenda r Year Total Purse In Us$

1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

Purse Paid Out To Owners In US $

Amount Paid To Breeders In US $

2907863

2861313

46549.45

2133610

2066947

66688.65

2282832

2212220

70611.93

2783781

2653228

130553.4

1643634

1524491

119143

1368816

1332657

36159.17

1993309

1838697

154611.9

1852978

1709249

143729.6

4965356

4520770

444586

5509692

5017387

492305.6

5718489

5172433

546056.1

5747346

5236411

510935.5

5402580

4919109

483470.2

5873082 5347988 Source:-The Jamaica Racing Commission

525094.8

% Change in Purses Paid out, year 1977=100 1400

Percentage Change

1200 1000

% Change in Total Purse1977=100

800 600

% Change in Puse Paid To Owners 1977=100

400 200 0 1

3

5

7

9 11 13

Period,1977- to-2008

Calenda r Year

Total Purse In

% Change in Amount Paid To Breeders 1977=100

Purse Paid to Owners in

Amount Paid To Breeders in

2

J$

1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008 Calenda r Year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

J$

J$

$2,646,155.33

$2,603,794.83

$42,360.00

$3,008,390.10

$2,914,395.27

$94,031.00

$4,017,784.32

$3,893,507.20

$124,277.00

$4,955,130.18

$4,722,745.84

$232,385.05

$9,056,423.34

$8,399,945.41

$656,477.93

$7,542,176.16

$7,342,940.07

$199,237.03

$11,501,392.93

$10,609,281.69

$892,110.66

$13,415,560.72

$12,374,962.76

$1,040,602.30

$176,319,791.56

$160,532,542.70

$15,787,248.86

$201,930,211.80

$183,887,233.55

$18,043,000.24

$224,164,768.80

$202,759,373.60

$21,405,399.12

$247,595,665.68

$225,584,585.88

$22,011,101.34

$373,102,174.80

$339,713,667.54

$33,388,452.01

$428,265,139.44

$389,975,284.96

$38,289,912.82

% change in total purse 1977=100%

% increase in purse paid to Breeders 1977=100%)

% change in amount paid to Breeders, 1977=100

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

1368.91%

1192.88%

12198.06%

5183.48%

4953.20%

19338.29%

8725.77%

8137.93%

44859.55%

24224.84%

22260.40%

144975.91%

18502.39%

18200.92%

37034.24%

33464.54%

30745.46%

200602.14%

40698.31%

37526.64%

235656.83%

656324.42%

606533.00%

3716923.76%

753107.93%

696227.82%

4249442.98%

837133.83%

768707.18%

5043210.43%

925680.77%

856368.51%

5186199.62%

1399978.36%

1294686.77%

7872070.92%

1608442.93%

1487718.95%

9029167.44%

3

Percentage increase in purses, 1977=100 10000000.00% 9000000.00% 8000000.00%

% change in total purse 1977=100%

percentage

7000000.00% 6000000.00%

% increase in purse paid to Breeders 1977=100%)

5000000.00% 4000000.00%

% change in amount paid to Breeders, 1977=100

3000000.00% 2000000.00% 1000000.00% 0.00% 1

3

5

7

9

11 13

period

If the problem is not caused by a failure to pay out a competitive purse and it did not come about as a result of radical changes in the offering of Caymanas Track Ltd. how then the decline in the fortunes of racing come about? There are two aspects to this problem –(1) Over the years there has been a reduction in both the number of betting shops in operation coupled with a decline in the number of betting companies; secondly there has been a decline in total betting sales. See table below:-

4

Calendar Year Promoter' s Total in J$

1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

Promoter's Total in J$

Book Maker's Total in J$

Total Betting in J$

$25,710.00

$25,710.00

$43,150.00

$68,860.00

$26,918.00

$26,918.00

$61,397.00

$88,315.00

$25,090.00

$25,090.00

$25,090.00

$89,959.00

$23,341.99

$23,341.99

$23,341.99

$87,555.00

$61,704.01

$61,704.01

$61,704.01

$200,873.00

$48,876.00

$48,876.00

$48,876.00

$172,024.02

$80,197.00

$80,197.00

$80,197.00

$281,292.98

$91,739.99

$91,739.99

$91,739.99

$251,553.00

$1,323,368.93

$1,323,368.93

$1,323,368.93

$2,130,133.04

$1,302,265.03

$1,302,265.03

$1,302,265.03

$2,151,817.16

$1,593,545.86

$1,593,545.86

$1,593,545.86

$2,761,560.03

$1,783,527.08

$1,783,527.08

$1,783,527.08

$3,160,070.93

$2,411,984.04

$2,411,984.04

$2,411,984.04

$394,704.97

$2,466,381.18

$2,466,381.18

$2,466,381.18

$4,059,239.83

5

% increase promoter's total sales, 1977=100)

Calendar Year 1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

% increase Bookmaker's total sales, 1977=100)

5 increase in total betting, 1977=100

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

469.85%

4228.74%

2825.30%

-241.15%

-4185.40%

3064.04%

-921.05%

-4590.50%

2714.93%

14000.00%

4299.89%

19171.22%

9010.50%

1327.00%

14981.70%

21192.92%

8585.63%

30849.98%

25682.61%

11260.72%

26531.08%

504729.21%

296690.38%

299342.58%

-9941.66%

291799.56%

302491.60%

609815.52%

359303.81%

391039.79%

683709.41%

403331.90%

448912.42%

928150.06% 949308.03%

548976.63% 561583.15%

47319.92% 579491.69%

5 increase/decrease in betting sales, 1977=100 1000000.00%

percentage change

800000.00% % increase promoter's total sales, 1977=100)

600000.00%

400000.00%

% increase Bookmaker's total sales, 1977=100)

200000.00%

5 increase in total betting, 1977=100

0.00% 1 -200000.00%

Calenda r Year

1977

Promoter’s Total in US$ 28252.75

3

5

7

9

11 13 15

Book Makers period Total Total in Betting in US $ US $ 47417.58

75670.33

6

1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

19090.78

43543.97

62634.75

14255.68

36857.39

51113.07

13113.48

36074.72

49188.2

11198.55

25257.53

36456.08

8870.417

22349.91

31220.33

13898.96

34851.99

48750.95

12671.27

22073.62

34744.89

37267.5

22719.35

59986.85

35532.47

23180.14

58712.61

40651.68

29796.28

70447.96

41400.35

31953.2

73353.55

34925.92

22136.13

5715.392

33823.11

21843.92

55667.03

Source:-The Jamaica Racing Commission

The table and graph below express the above in percentage terms thus enabling a closer examination in the change in betting sales between 1977 and 2008. Calenda r Year

% change in Promoters Total 1977=100

% Change in Bookmakers Total 1977=100

100

100

100

82.77

67.57

91.83

67.55

50.46

77.73

65.00

46.41

76.08

48.18

39.64

53.27

41.26

31.40

47.13

64.43

49.20

73.50

45.92

44.85

46.55

79.27

131.91

47.91

77.59

125.77

48.89

93.10

143.89

62.84

96.94

146.54

67.39

7.55

123.62

46.68

73.57 119.72 Source: The Jamaica Racing Commission

46.07

1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

% Change in Total Betting 1977=100

7

% in Total Sales, 1977=100

% change over 1977 sales

160 140

% Chandge in Total Betting 1977=100

120 100

% change in Promoters Total 1977=100

80 60

% Change in Bookmakers Total 1977=100

40 20 0 1

3

5

7

9 11 13

periods, 1977-2008

What can be seen from the tables and graph above is that not only is there a question of declining total sales , but from the mid 1980s private bookmakers have been reducing their participation in the sales of bets on local races. While there has been a consistent increase in the promoter’s share in total betting sales its impact remains less than it would have been if the private bookmakers were operating at their pri-1980s level. Coupled with the above, the promoter has been called on to match changes in betting sales to that of the payment of purses. See table and graph below:Calenda % change in Total Betting r Year Year to Year 1977 !00 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007

% change in Total Purse Year to Year 100.00

82.77

73.37

81.60

106.99

96.23

121.94

74.12

59.04

85.64

83.28

156.15

145.62

71.27

92.96

172.65

267.97

97.88

110.96

119.99

103.79

104.12

100.50

7.79

94.00

8

2008

973.98

108.71

% C h a n g e in T o ta l P u r s e a n d T o ta l B e ttin g Y e a r to Y e a r 1200 1000 % c h a n g e in T o t a l B e t t in g Y e a r t o Y ear

% Change

800 600

% c h a n g e in T o t a l P u rs e Y e a r t o Y e a r

400 200 0 1

3

5

7

9

11 13

P e r i o d 1 9 7 7 to 2 0 0 8

Marginal Change in Totat Betting & Marginal Change in Total Purse 1977 to 2008 10 8 6

Marginal Change in Total Betting

4

Marginal Change in Total Purse

2 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 -2

9

Data below are calculated from figures in J$ as given above and using the year 1977 as the base year. Calenda r Year

% increase promoter's total sales, 1977=100)

1977 1978 1979 1980 1987 1988 1989 1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2007 2008

% change in total purse 1977=100%

100%

100.00%

469.85%

1368.91%

-241.15%

5183.48%

-921.05%

8725.77%

14000.00%

24224.84%

9010.50%

18502.39%

21192.92%

33464.54%

25682.61%

40698.31%

504729.21%

656324.42%

-9941.66%

753107.93%

609815.52%

837133.83%

683709.41%

925680.77%

928150.06%

1399978.36%

949308.03%

1608442.93%

% change in total purse viz-a-viz % change in promoter's total sales 1800000% 1600000% 1400000% 1200000% 1000000%

% increase promoter's total sales, 1977=100)

800000%

% change in total purse 1977=100%

600000% 400000% 200000% 0% -200000%

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

10

As can be seen in the chart above, the percentage increase in total purse was much stronger during the period than the percentage change in the promoter’s total sales. The Implications For The Racing Industry 1. The declining sale coupled with the declining participation of the private sector in the sales of bets on local racing in addition to the increasing responsibilities of the promoting company means greater difficulty in the funding of recurrent activities and little or no attention to developmental activities. 2. Greater demands on the state to give various types of “incentives” and or grants. 3. The potential risk of accelerated decapitalization of the industry in the short to medium term as a result of the increasing attractiveness and lower operating of other forms of gambling.

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