The India Growth Story
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The India Growth Story
Sensex
10223
Nifty
3,074
As the Indian markets begin to fall like autumn leaves people started nattering and ridiculing about the great India growth story. We love our country and often don’t like whatever is abysmal or unfavourable and does not suit to our sensibilities. Buts facts never tell lies. Here, we will try to explore and unearth where our beloved country stands in the world on various parameters. Is the great India growth story will die an untimely death? Will India stop shining? Without getting into forecasting and manipulating data we will just put all those figures so that you can know your country better. And then you will decide yourself. In 2008 ranking on following parameters India was ranked as below:
Parameter Largest Economies in $ (PPP) terms Industrial Production Growth Real GDP Growth Rate Fiscal Deficit Forex Reserve and Gold Current Account Balance External Debt Investment (Gross Fixed) Top Exporting Countries
Rank in 2008 5 14 16 Not Ranked 6 153 30 15 28
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Deepak Tiwari Research Analyst [email protected] T: + 91 22 4063 3032
October 20, 2008
Honestly speaking, India has immense possibilities. These data will not answer the question as such. They just show us where we are right now and where we want to be. To maintain our growth rate and meet our growth targets we require making a concerted effort towards this direction. One of them is reform. But this reform should not be at the cost of social responsibilities. We shall not fallow western sort of policies blindly but we urgently need a balanced but comprehensive approach and course of actions. Of course, there are political hindrances and other systematic bottlenecks. But India need urgent actions from every quarter as next few years are crucial for us. India can make it to third in world’s largest economies in 2050. It has everything to make it happen but there lies a big BUT. We are very good at policies what we really need to be good at is execution and effective implementations of those policies not only in forms but also in substances.
For Private Circulation only
1
World's 20 largest economies 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Country European Union United States China Japan India Germany United Kingdom Russia France Brazil Italy Spain Mexico Canada Korea, South Iran Indonesia Australia Taiwan Turkey World
(in $ PPP) Million 14,440,000 13,860,000 7,043,000 4,305,000 2,965,000 2,833,000 2,147,000 2,076,000 2,067,000 1,838,000 1,800,000 1,362,000 1,353,000 1,274,000 1,206,000 852,600 845,600 766,800 690,100 667,700 65,820,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
As per CIA World Factbook 2008, India’s ranked 5th as far as the largest economies are concerned in terms of USD PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is concerned. According to a Goldman Sachs report, India will be ranked third in 2050 only behind China and United States. Sounds too optimistic? Have a look on the table underneath:
Top 10 GDP Countries 2050 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Country China United States India Japan Brazil Russia United Kingdom Germany France Italy European Union
2000 GDP 1078 9825 469 4176 762 391 1437 1875 1311 1078 9395
2010 GDP 2998 13271 929 4601 668 847 1876 2212 1622 1337 12965
in $ Billion 2020 2030 GDP GDP 7070 14312 16415 20833 2104 4935 5221 5810 1333 2189 1741 2980 2285 2649 2524 2697 1930 2267 1553 1671 16861 21075
2040 GDP 26439 27229 12367 6039 3740 4467 3201 3147 2668 1788 28323
2050 GDP 44453 35165 27803 6673 6074 5870 3782 3603 3148 2061 35288
Source: Goldman Sachs, CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
2
India’s is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. At a time when most developed countries are almost stagnant or growing at much slower pace, India and China have registered robust growth. Though India cannot compete with China because for India, forget about double digit growth, even a 9% growth is distant possibility. In current scenario, when China has scaled down its forecasted growth in single digit, we too are likely to grow at least by 7-7.5% in current fiscal which is not too bad at all.
World's 20 fastest growing economies 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 63 71 71 67 64 25 73 47
Country Azerbaijan Maldives Angola Sudan Equatorial Guinea China Liechtenstein Cyprus Armenia Latvia Anguilla Georgia Ethiopia Kazakhstan Bhutan Slovakia United Arab Emirates India Liberia Argentina Cambodia Mongolia
Real GDP Growth Rate 31.0 18.0 16.3 12.8 12.7 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.5 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4
Venezuela Vietnam Uzbekistan Other prominent economies European Union United States Japan Germany United Kingdom Russia France Brazil
8.3 8.2 8.1 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.9 7.4 1.8 4.9
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
3
Industrial production growth 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Country Sudan Azerbaijan Angola Equatorial Guinea Egypt China Uzbekistan Laos Lesotho Georgia Cambodia Slovakia
13 14 15 16 17
Growth Rate (%) 32.0 31.0 24.4 14.1 13.8 12.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Vietnam India Mozambique Poland Estonia
10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Fiscal Deficit in 2008: Country wise Country United States Japan Germany France United Kingdom Italy China Canada Spain Netherlands Brazil India Russia
Budgeted Expenditure 2,731,000 1,575,000 1,477,000 1,372,000 1,237,000 1,029,000 634,600 551,200 544,900 352,300 219,900 182,400 243,600
Budgeted Revenues 2,568,000 1,463,000 1,465,000 1,311,000 1,155,000 976,000 640,600 565,800 571,100 302,800 244,000 145,200 341,700
Deficit In $ Million -163,000 -112,000 -12,000 -61,000 -82,000 -53,000 6,000 14,600 26,200 -49,500 24,100 -37,200 98,100
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
4
Forex Reserves and Gold 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Country China Japan Russia Taiwan Korea, South India Brazil Singapore Hong Kong Germany
$ Million 1,493,000 881,000 470,000 282,900 271,100 239,400 178,000 155,300 141,300 111,600
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Current Account Balance 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 153 162 160 155 28 146
Country China Japan Germany Saudi Arabia Russia Switzerland Netherlands Norway Kuwait Singapore India US UK Brazil Pakistan
$ Million 363,300 201,300 185,100 88890 68500 67890 59280 55820 51490 41390 -18,530 -747,100 -111,000 -35,940 -10,200 -6,477
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
5
External Debt 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 30 23
Country United States United Kingdom Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Ireland Japan Switzerland Belgium Canada Australia Austria Sweden Hong Kong Denmark Norway Portugal Russia India China
In $ Million 12,250,000 10,450,000 4,489,000 4,396,000 2,345,000 2,277,000 2,047,000 1,841,000 1,492,000 1,340,000 1,313,000 758,600 757,900 752,500 598,200 549,700 492,600 469,100 415,500 384,800 165,400 363,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Investment (gross fixed) 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Country Lesotho Sao Tome and Principe Qatar China Senegal Guyana Equatorial Guinea Cape Verde Turkmenistan Latvia Jamaica Estonia
13 14 15
Vietnam Armenia India
%age of GDP 48.5 43.7 43.5 42.2 39.8 39.3 39.2 36.9 36.6 35.8 34.1 33.3 33.0 32.7 31.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
6
Top 20 Exporting Countries 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 28
Country Germany European Union China United States Japan France Italy Netherlands Canada United Kingdom Korea, South
In $ Million 1,361,000 1,330,000 1,221,000 1,140,000 665,700 558,900 474,800 465,300 440,100 415,600 386,600
Hong Kong Russia Belgium Singapore Mexico Spain Taiwan Saudi Arabia Switzerland India World
353,300 348,900 328,100 317,600 267,500 248,300 235,500 215,000 201,000 140,800 13,720,000
Share in World Exports 9.9% 9.7% 8.9% 8.3% 4.9% 4.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0%
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Arthaeon Financial Services and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed to be reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Arthaeon Financial Services and/or its affiliates or employees shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from any error in this document. Arthaeon Financial Services may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document.
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
7
Sensex
10223
Nifty
3,074
As the Indian markets begin to fall like autumn leaves people started nattering and ridiculing about the great India growth story. We love our country and often don’t like whatever is abysmal or unfavourable and does not suit to our sensibilities. Buts facts never tell lies. Here, we will try to explore and unearth where our beloved country stands in the world on various parameters. Is the great India growth story will die an untimely death? Will India stop shining? Without getting into forecasting and manipulating data we will just put all those figures so that you can know your country better. And then you will decide yourself. In 2008 ranking on following parameters India was ranked as below:
Parameter Largest Economies in $ (PPP) terms Industrial Production Growth Real GDP Growth Rate Fiscal Deficit Forex Reserve and Gold Current Account Balance External Debt Investment (Gross Fixed) Top Exporting Countries
Rank in 2008 5 14 16 Not Ranked 6 153 30 15 28
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Deepak Tiwari Research Analyst [email protected] T: + 91 22 4063 3032
October 20, 2008
Honestly speaking, India has immense possibilities. These data will not answer the question as such. They just show us where we are right now and where we want to be. To maintain our growth rate and meet our growth targets we require making a concerted effort towards this direction. One of them is reform. But this reform should not be at the cost of social responsibilities. We shall not fallow western sort of policies blindly but we urgently need a balanced but comprehensive approach and course of actions. Of course, there are political hindrances and other systematic bottlenecks. But India need urgent actions from every quarter as next few years are crucial for us. India can make it to third in world’s largest economies in 2050. It has everything to make it happen but there lies a big BUT. We are very good at policies what we really need to be good at is execution and effective implementations of those policies not only in forms but also in substances.
For Private Circulation only
1
World's 20 largest economies 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Country European Union United States China Japan India Germany United Kingdom Russia France Brazil Italy Spain Mexico Canada Korea, South Iran Indonesia Australia Taiwan Turkey World
(in $ PPP) Million 14,440,000 13,860,000 7,043,000 4,305,000 2,965,000 2,833,000 2,147,000 2,076,000 2,067,000 1,838,000 1,800,000 1,362,000 1,353,000 1,274,000 1,206,000 852,600 845,600 766,800 690,100 667,700 65,820,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
As per CIA World Factbook 2008, India’s ranked 5th as far as the largest economies are concerned in terms of USD PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is concerned. According to a Goldman Sachs report, India will be ranked third in 2050 only behind China and United States. Sounds too optimistic? Have a look on the table underneath:
Top 10 GDP Countries 2050 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Country China United States India Japan Brazil Russia United Kingdom Germany France Italy European Union
2000 GDP 1078 9825 469 4176 762 391 1437 1875 1311 1078 9395
2010 GDP 2998 13271 929 4601 668 847 1876 2212 1622 1337 12965
in $ Billion 2020 2030 GDP GDP 7070 14312 16415 20833 2104 4935 5221 5810 1333 2189 1741 2980 2285 2649 2524 2697 1930 2267 1553 1671 16861 21075
2040 GDP 26439 27229 12367 6039 3740 4467 3201 3147 2668 1788 28323
2050 GDP 44453 35165 27803 6673 6074 5870 3782 3603 3148 2061 35288
Source: Goldman Sachs, CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
2
India’s is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. At a time when most developed countries are almost stagnant or growing at much slower pace, India and China have registered robust growth. Though India cannot compete with China because for India, forget about double digit growth, even a 9% growth is distant possibility. In current scenario, when China has scaled down its forecasted growth in single digit, we too are likely to grow at least by 7-7.5% in current fiscal which is not too bad at all.
World's 20 fastest growing economies 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 19 20 63 71 71 67 64 25 73 47
Country Azerbaijan Maldives Angola Sudan Equatorial Guinea China Liechtenstein Cyprus Armenia Latvia Anguilla Georgia Ethiopia Kazakhstan Bhutan Slovakia United Arab Emirates India Liberia Argentina Cambodia Mongolia
Real GDP Growth Rate 31.0 18.0 16.3 12.8 12.7 11.4 11.0 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.5 8.8 8.8 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.4
Venezuela Vietnam Uzbekistan Other prominent economies European Union United States Japan Germany United Kingdom Russia France Brazil
8.3 8.2 8.1 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.9 7.4 1.8 4.9
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
3
Industrial production growth 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Country Sudan Azerbaijan Angola Equatorial Guinea Egypt China Uzbekistan Laos Lesotho Georgia Cambodia Slovakia
13 14 15 16 17
Growth Rate (%) 32.0 31.0 24.4 14.1 13.8 12.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
Vietnam India Mozambique Poland Estonia
10.5 10.0 10.0 10.0 9.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Fiscal Deficit in 2008: Country wise Country United States Japan Germany France United Kingdom Italy China Canada Spain Netherlands Brazil India Russia
Budgeted Expenditure 2,731,000 1,575,000 1,477,000 1,372,000 1,237,000 1,029,000 634,600 551,200 544,900 352,300 219,900 182,400 243,600
Budgeted Revenues 2,568,000 1,463,000 1,465,000 1,311,000 1,155,000 976,000 640,600 565,800 571,100 302,800 244,000 145,200 341,700
Deficit In $ Million -163,000 -112,000 -12,000 -61,000 -82,000 -53,000 6,000 14,600 26,200 -49,500 24,100 -37,200 98,100
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
4
Forex Reserves and Gold 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Country China Japan Russia Taiwan Korea, South India Brazil Singapore Hong Kong Germany
$ Million 1,493,000 881,000 470,000 282,900 271,100 239,400 178,000 155,300 141,300 111,600
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Current Account Balance 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 153 162 160 155 28 146
Country China Japan Germany Saudi Arabia Russia Switzerland Netherlands Norway Kuwait Singapore India US UK Brazil Pakistan
$ Million 363,300 201,300 185,100 88890 68500 67890 59280 55820 51490 41390 -18,530 -747,100 -111,000 -35,940 -10,200 -6,477
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
5
External Debt 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 30 23
Country United States United Kingdom Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Ireland Japan Switzerland Belgium Canada Australia Austria Sweden Hong Kong Denmark Norway Portugal Russia India China
In $ Million 12,250,000 10,450,000 4,489,000 4,396,000 2,345,000 2,277,000 2,047,000 1,841,000 1,492,000 1,340,000 1,313,000 758,600 757,900 752,500 598,200 549,700 492,600 469,100 415,500 384,800 165,400 363,000
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
Investment (gross fixed) 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Country Lesotho Sao Tome and Principe Qatar China Senegal Guyana Equatorial Guinea Cape Verde Turkmenistan Latvia Jamaica Estonia
13 14 15
Vietnam Armenia India
%age of GDP 48.5 43.7 43.5 42.2 39.8 39.3 39.2 36.9 36.6 35.8 34.1 33.3 33.0 32.7 31.8
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
6
Top 20 Exporting Countries 2008 Ranking 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 28
Country Germany European Union China United States Japan France Italy Netherlands Canada United Kingdom Korea, South
In $ Million 1,361,000 1,330,000 1,221,000 1,140,000 665,700 558,900 474,800 465,300 440,100 415,600 386,600
Hong Kong Russia Belgium Singapore Mexico Spain Taiwan Saudi Arabia Switzerland India World
353,300 348,900 328,100 317,600 267,500 248,300 235,500 215,000 201,000 140,800 13,720,000
Share in World Exports 9.9% 9.7% 8.9% 8.3% 4.9% 4.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0%
Source: CIA World Factbook 2008, Artha Money Research
Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by Arthaeon Financial Services and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed to be reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Arthaeon Financial Services and/or its affiliates or employees shall not be liable for loss or damage that may arise from any error in this document. Arthaeon Financial Services may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document.
October 20, 2008
For Private Circulation only
7
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