The Impact of Change™ Database In predicting the impact of change, one needs to understand: • What is happening, • When it is happening and • What the impact will be To incorporate all these three crucial elements, SG-2 has created a proprietary Impact of Change (IoC™) database that tracks the time evolution and impact of the many factors affecting on healthcare utilization: The database includes in-depth information on: • the economy • consumerism • payment • demographics • technologies In particular, the IoC™ Database tracks eight classes of emerging technologies with over 300 subcategories within these classes. Technology diffusion over time 1.2 1 Relative impact
The diffusion and adoption of each technology over time is estimated by an analysis of its likely introduction, rapidity of diffusion (technologies requiring certificates of need, extensive training and/or capital investment will diffuse relatively slowly, for example), and time to saturation. Some technologies may be predicted to decline (as in the illustrated example) if it is anticipated that they may be directly supplanted by follow-on emerging technologies.
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Special attention is paid to the interaction of these factors across multiple clinical areas. For example, the growing epidemic of obesity has a direct impact on diabetes (and hence renal failure) prevalence. This trend will also affect the volumes of outpatient obesity reduction surgeries. These discretionary procedures will experience further increases in demand synergistic with a rebounding economy later in the decade compounded by an increasing degree of consumerism in the healthcare market. All of these trends will also experience impact from a new generation of anti-obesity drugs based on dopaminergic blockade, leptin hormone pathways and/or intestinal fat absorption. Tracking the future of healthcare is enormously complex. The IoC™ Database helps us to help you track and understand these changes along with their multi-dimensional impacts.