The Global Energy Challenge: Roel Snieder

The Global Energy Challenge Roel Snieder

Photo: USFWS/Susanne Miller

The Global Climate and Energy Project Mission • Research on low-GHG emission energy conversions • Focus on fundamental and pre-commercial research • Applications in the 10-50 years timeframe

Strategy • Research projects with potential for significant impact on GHG emissions • Look for potential breakthroughs for new conversion options • High risk / high reward • Work at Stanford and at other institutions around the world

Schedule and Budget Stanford Participating outside institutions Pending outside institutions

• 10 years (2003 – 2013+) • $225 M

Total global energy demand

70% increase

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

Developing countries

… and our energy use

Our energy-dependence (1)

Our energy-dependence (2)

Energy use by type

(International Energy Outlook 2006)

Peak oil

N.B. based on USGS estimates, these are among the most optimistic (Energy Information administration)

Peak oil (again)

http://info.energyscenariosireland.com/Overview

Production

Declining production (1)

resource depleted p u s

y l p

Time

Declining production (2)

Production

d

d n a em

production gap!

p u s

y l p

Time

Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record Set in 1980 (NYT, March 4, 2008)

$103.76, April 1980

$102.45, March 2008

Price of a barrel of oil, adjusted for inflation

1

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(Source: Federal Reserve Energy Information Administration)

2008

John Hess, CEO of Hess Corp. “We've moved from a supply-led market to a demand-led one. In the past, the world has relied on OPEC's spare capacity, which in 1985 was 10 million barrels per day. Today that number is about 2.5 million barrels a day. We no longer have a safety margin to ensure price stability in the face of supply interruptions and demand spikes. Right now it's hard to see any relief in sight. Then there's demand. About 50 percent of oil demand is for transportation, and auto ownership in the developing countries is growing swiftly, especially in India and China. ….. Put those two things together - limited supply and increasing demand - and you get high oil prices.” (Newsweek, March 15, 2008, http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482)

International Energy Agency Fall 2008 The world’s energy system is at a crossroads. Current global  trends in energy supply and consumption are patently  unsustainable ­ environmentally, economically, socially. But that  can ­ and must ­ be altered; there’s still time to change the road  we’re on. It is not an exaggeration to claim that the future of  human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle the  two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the  supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid  transformation to a low­carbon, efficient and environmentally  benign system of energy supply. What is needed is nothing  short of an energy revolution. http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/WEO2008SUM.pdf 

New find in GOM (Jack No. 2 test well)

• up to 3-15 billion barrels of oil • US consumption 20 million barrels/day • 5 months - 2 years • reservoir is 8 km under sea level

A Quest for Energy in the Globe’s Remote Places (New York Times, October 9, 2007)

A natural gas cargo ship passing Melkoya Island, across the bay from Hammerfest, Norway.

Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports (New York Times, December 9, 2007)

Who has the oil? USA

China

India

(http://www.energybulletin.net/37329.html)

What is the plan?

A New, Global Oil Quandary: Costly Fuel Means Costly Calories (NYT, January 19, 2008)

Rising prices for cooking oil are forcing residents of Asia’s largest slum, in Mumbai, India, to ration every drop. Bakeries in the United States are fretting over higher shortening costs.

Carbohydrates and biofuel glucose

cellulose

Do we feed humans or cars? Is it a good idea to compete with our machines for calories?

Research: biofuel from cellulose Processing costs ($/GJ)

25 cellulose

20 15

vegetable starch oil (glucose)

10

gas oil (100$/barrel)

5 0

5

10 15 20 Feed cost ($/GJ)

25

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/biomass.html (Figure adapted from Lange, J.P., Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 1: 39-48, 2007)

First solar 2 MW array Ft. Carson, CO

Research: efficient solar cells 1 mm

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/solar.html

Proven World Reserves-toProduction Ratio at End 2004 (Years)

Fossil fuel reserves

200 164 yrs.

Your children

Your grand-children

 World R/P ratios are: Oil = 40.5 years; Natural Gas = 66.7 years; Coal = 164 years

100

0

• The R/P ratio is the number of years that proved reserves would last at current production rates.

 U.S. R/P ratios are: Oil = 11.1 years; Natural Gas = 9.8 years; Coal = 245 years

66.7 yrs. 40.5 yrs.

Oil

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2005

Gas

Coal

Non-conventional reserves (excluding gas and coal) Produced (gone) Proved Reserves Undiscovered(?)

Conventional (“easy”)

0

EOR

25

1

2

Shale Oil

Unconventional petroleum resources: (more difficult & dirty, and therefore expen$ive)

50

Years Supply at 2005 Production

0

Extra Heavy Oil & Tar Sands

3

4

5

6

Trillions of Barrels Recoverable (Courtesy of Joe Stefani)

7

8

9

10

World’s unconventional production

N.B. World’s annual oil consumption 2006 is 85 million barrels/day Source: Energy Information Administration, 2007

Non-conventional oil 2 tons of tar sands produce 1 barrel of bitumen (~asphalt)

Tar Sand

Heavy Oil

from National Geographic, June 2004

Oil shale

CO2 emissions vs fuel type Coal

lbs per MWh

564

Natural gas

331

NREL technical report NREL/TP-840-400665

The Greenhouse Effect

Temperature change (oC)

400 350 300 250 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

200

1

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Thousands of year before present

now

Carbon Dioxode (ppmv)

Temperature and CO2 records

IPCC 4th Report 850 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A2) 680 ppm CO2 in 2100 (A1B) 550 ppm CO2 in 2100 (B1) Year 2000 constant concentration 20th century

4oC

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

Temperature change (oC)

What is 4oC difference? 4oC

2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10

4oC Riss

1

350 300 250 200 150 100

Würm

50

Thousands of year before present

now

Arctic sea ice 1995-2007

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

Arctic sea ice 2005-2007

4.3 4.3million millionsq sqkm km

(National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder)

Sea-level rise in Florida

…. and in other parts of the world

http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Sea_Level_Rise_Maps_Gallery

Curbing CO2 emissions

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

The 7 wedges

(Pacala and Socolow, Science, 305, 968-971, 2004)

Choose 7 out of 15 wedges distributed over: • energy efficiency and conservation • nuclear energy • renewable energy and fuels • more efficient forest and land use • injecting CO2 in the subsurface

One wedge is ….. • generate electricity at 60% efficiency • wind turbines: 3% of the USA surface • photovoltaics: 700 X today’s use • nuclear power: double (build 500) • inject 3 Giga-ton of CO2 per year

Energy efficiency Lost energy = 60%!

Research: high-temperature combustion

fuel/H20

turbine

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/combustion.html

Efficiency can pay off Cost per ton CO2 90 60 30 0

1.4 1.6 1.8

2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

-30

2.8 3.0 Gigatons/year

-60 -90 -120 -230

Current USA emissions: 7 Gigatons CO2/year Source: McKinsey analysis, http://mckinsey.com/clientservice/ccsi/greenhousegas.asp

Cost ($ per ton CO2) -80 ef

fic i

ni

cs

an ef ent d fic l c ie ars ight ing ag co nt n a n ric ot m he ult po bin ew d tr ri ur we ed bu uc n e cl. ,f ot r g he ildi ks im or he e a n g pr nu ne t/p s e r ov st c ra o w le ry e a tio e , ex r l a n/ r is t nd in in du u g s st e bu re ry ne ild wa in ca gs bl rb e on en se er qu gy es tra t io n

-40 ct ro

0 ele

40

40% of current US emissions!

1 2 3 US CO2 emission avoided (gigatons/year)

How much CO2 to sequester?

1 km 2 km

• one wedge is 3 GtCO2/year • world oil production is 4 Gt/year

The Sleipner project as a show-case

X 3500 !

Kuwait from space 30 km

N

Research: gas separation Develop membranes to separate H2 or CO2 for carbon-free hydrogen production.

http://gcep.stanford.edu/research/co2capture.html

What can I do as educator? “I think we have the responsibility to insist that education is more than learning job skills, that it is also the bedrock of a democracy. I think we must be very careful that in the race to become wealthier, more prestigious, and to be ranked Number One, we don't lose sight of the real purpose of education, which is to make people free - to give them the grounding they need to think for themselves and participate as intelligent members of a free society.” Myers, T.M., A student is not an input, NYT, March 26, 2001

How much CO2 is produced by burning the coal in one railroad car?

Conservation requires education

From the thirteen myths …. • Today’s energy crisis is a hype • The public is well informed about energy • The hydrogen economy is a solution • Efficiency improvements have reached their potential • Climate policy will bankrupt the US economy • World-wide power systems are optimal

(Energy and American society - thirteen myths, eds. B.K. Sovacool and M.A. Brown)

Lobby for a climate commitment •

Initiate the development of a comprehensive plan to achieve climate neutrality as soon as possible.

•

Initiate two or more of the following tangible actions to reduce greenhouse gases while the more comprehensive plan is being developed….

•

Make the action plan, inventory, and periodic progress reports publicly available …… http://www.presidentsclimatecommitment.org/

What can I do as consumer?

Lighting

Transportation

Appliances

Oil needed to produce bottled water

(http://www.armchairenvironmentalist.com/blog/index.php?paged=2)

Kirsch Center DeAnza Community College

Energy saving: $65,000/year

Plug-in vehicles

Consider the life-cycle

Consider the life-cycle

Recycle! Local passenger transport 12%

Goods and materials 38%

Building energy use 31% Inter-city passenger transport 7%

Food 12%

US CO2 emissions per sector (2005), source US EPA

What can I do as student?

• become a professional • seek out new opportunities • push for energy conservation

Seek projects

http://community.uui.asu.edu/features/solar.asp

What can I do in business? • Seek opportunities in sustainable business (for ideas: http://www.sustainablebusiness.com) • Create an energy plan and save. • Imagine what is possible when energy prices rise.

http://www.danchiras.com

What can I do as citizen? • Ask: what is our energy plan? • Start a discussion in your community. • Demand that the United States becomes a world-leader in responsible use of energy.

“That which we are, we shall teach, not voluntarily but involuntarily.” [Emerson] 

What if we had the courage to dream ….. and raise fuel standards for cars by 25% to European levels, generate 20% of electricity by wind (as Denmark does), generate another 20% of electricity from sunlight, and conserve 20% by increased efficiency. This can be done if we want it to happen!

“To have sustainable economic growth 10 years from now, both consumers and producers need to start acting now.” John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation in Newsweek, 3/15/2008 http://www.newsweek.com/id/123482

Questions/comments?

“The difference between stumbling blocks and stepping stones is how you use them.” Send feedback to Roel Snieder: email [email protected] Presentation: http://www.mines.edu/~rsnieder/Global_Energy.html