The Financial Environment: Markets, Institutions, And Interest Rates

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CHAPTER 5 The Financial Environment: Markets, Institutions, and Interest Rates  Financial markets  Types of financial institutions  Determinants of interest rates  Yield curves Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Define these markets  Markets in general  Markets for physical assets  Markets for financial assets  Money versus capital markets  Primary versus secondary markets  Spot versus future markets Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Three Primary Ways Capital Is Transferred Between Savers and Borrowers  Direct transfer  Through an investment banking house  Through a financial intermediary Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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The Top 5 Banking Companies in the World, 1999 Bank Name

Country

Total assets

Deutsche Bank AG

Germany

$735 billion

UBS Group

Switzerland

$687 billion

Citigroup

United States

$669 billion

Bank of America

United States

$618 billion

Bank of Tokyo

Japan

$580 billion

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Organized Exchanges versus Over-the-Counter Market  Auction markets versus dealer markets (exchanges versus the OTC market)  NYSE versus Nasdaq system  Differences are narrowing  Nasdaq vs. true OTC Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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 What do we call the price, or cost, of debt capital? The interest rate  What do we call the price, or cost, of equity capital? Required Dividend Capital = + . return yield gain Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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What four factors affect the cost of money?  Production opportunities  Time preferences for consumption  Risk  Expected inflation

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Real versus Nominal Rates

k*

k kRF

= Real risk-free rate. T-bond rate if no inflation; 1% to 4%. = Any nominal rate. = Rate on Treasury securities.

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k = k* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP. Here: k = Required rate of return on a debt security. k* = Real risk-free rate. IP = Inflation premium. DRP = Default risk premium. LP = Liquidity premium. MRP = Maturity risk premium. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Premiums Added to k* for Different Types of Debt

 ST Treasury: only IP for ST inflation  LT Treasury: IP for LT inflation, MRP  ST corporate: ST IP, DRP, LP  LT corporate: IP, DRP, MRP, LP Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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What is the “term structure of interest rates”? What is a “yield curve”?

 Term structure: the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and maturities.  A graph of the term structure is called the yield curve. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Treasury Yield Curve Interest Rate (%) 15

1 yr 5 yr 10 yr 30 yr

6.3% 6.7% 6.5% 6.2% Yield Curve (May 2000)

10

5

Years to Maturity

0 10 Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

20

30 All rights reserved.

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Yield Curve Construction Step 1: Find the average expected inflation rate over years 1 to n: n

Σ INFLt IPn =

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t=1

n

.

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IP1 = 5%/1.0 = 5.00%. IP10 = [5 + 6 + 8(8)]/10 = 7.5%. IP20 = [5 + 6 + 8(18)]/20 = 7.75%. Must earn these IPs to break even versus inflation; that is, these IPs would permit you to earn k* (before taxes). Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Step 2: Find MRP based on this equation: MRPt = 0.1%(t - 1).

MRP1 = 0.1% x 0 = 0.0%. MRP10 = 0.1% x 9 = 0.9%. MRP20 = 0.1% x 19 = 1.9%.

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Step 3: Add the IPs and MRPs to k*: kRFt = k* + IPt + MRPt . kRF = Quoted market interest rate on treasury securities. Assume k* = 3%: kRF1 = 3% + 5% + 0.0% = 8.0%. kRF10 = 3% + 7.5% + 0.9% = 11.4%. kRF20 = 3% + 7.75% + 1.9% = 12.65%. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Hypothetical Treasury Yield Curve Interest Rate (%) 15

Maturity risk premium

10

Inflation premium

1 yr 10 yr 20 yr

8.0% 11.4% 12.65%

5 Real risk-free rate

Years to Maturity

0 1

10

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20 All rights reserved.

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What factors can explain the shape of this yield curve?  This constructed yield curve is upward sloping.  This is due to increasing expected inflation and an increasing maturity risk premium.

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What kind of relationship exists between the Treasury yield curve and the yield curves for corporate issues?  Corporate yield curves are higher than that of the Treasury bond. However, corporate yield curves are not necessarily parallel to the Treasury curve.  The spread between a corporate yield curve and the Treasury curve widens as the corporate bond rating decreases. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Hypothetical Treasury and Corporate Yield Curves Interest Rate (%) 15

BB-Rated

10

AAA-Rated

5

Treasury 6.0% yield curve

5.9%

5.2%

0 0

1

5

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10

15

20

Years to maturity

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Billions of dollars

How does the volume of corporate bond issues compare to that of Treasury securities? Gross U.S. Treasury Issuance (in blue) Investment Grade Corporate Bond Issuance (in red)

600 450 300 150 ‘95

‘96

‘97

‘98

‘99

Recently, the volume of investment grade corporate bond issues has overtaken Treasury issues. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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The Pure Expectations Hypothesis (PEH)  Shape of the yield curve depends on the investors’ expectations about future interest rates.  If interest rates are expected to increase, L-T rates will be higher than S-T rates and vice versa. Thus, the yield curve can slope up or down. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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 PEH assumes that MRP = 0.  Long-term rates are an average of current and future short-term rates.  If PEH is correct, you can use the yield curve to “back out” expected future interest rates.

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Observed Treasury Rates Maturity 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years

Yield 6.0% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5%

If PEH holds, what does the market expect will be the interest rate on one-year securities, one year from now? Three-year securities, two years from now? Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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x% 6.0%

0

1 6.2%

2

3

4

5

(6.0% + x%) 6.2% = 2 12.4% = 6.0 + x% 6.4% = x%.

PEH tells us that one-year securities will yield 6.4%, one year from now (x%). Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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6.2% 0

1

x% 2

3 4 5 6.5% [ 2(6.2%) + 3(x%) ] 6.5% = 5 32.5% = 12.4% + 3(x%) 20.1% = 3(x%) 6.7% = x%. PEH tells us that three-year securities will yield 6.7%, two years from now (x%).

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Conclusions about PEH  Some argue that the PEH isn’t correct, because securities of different maturities have different risk.  General view (supported by most evidence) is that lenders prefer S-T securities, and view L-T securities as riskier.  Thus, investors demand a MRP to get them to hold L-T securities (i.e., MRP > 0). Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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What various types of risks arise when investing overseas? Country risk: Arises from investing or doing business in a particular country. It depends on the country’s economic, political, and social environment. Exchange rate risk: If investment is denominated in a currency other than the dollar, the investment’s value will depend on what happens to exchange rate. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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Two Factors Lead to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

 Changes in relative inflation will lead to changes in exchange rates.  An increase in country risk will also cause that country’s currency to fall. Copyright © 2002 by Harcourt, Inc.

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