Technical Reading Management 206

UNIVERSIDAD COOPERATIVA DE COLOMBIA “Profesionales con Criterios Políticos” Villavicencio – Meta – Colombia

Faculty of Management English III – Group 206 – Technical reading Name: _______________________________

Code: __________ Date ______________

Scenario Planning for tomorrow Over 30 years ago, Alvin Toffler wrote the runaway bestseller, "Future Shock". Toffler predicted a world of rapidly accelerating changes. Just read the news headlines of the past year and you can gain a sense of Toffler's prophesy. Change is everywhere and on everyone's mind. Who would have thought a story of mice in a maze and their ability to deal with change would touch the hearts and minds of people around the globe. This uncertainty has led to sales of over 10 million copies of the book, "Who Moved My Cheese? An A-Mazing Way to Deal with Change in Your Work and in Your Life". "Change has considerable psychological impact on the human mind. To the fearful, change is threatening because it means that things may get worse To the hopeful, change is encouraging because things may get better. To confident, change is inspiring because the challenge exists to make thing better."...King Whitney, Jr. Rear-View Mirror Trap As Whitney reveals we all adapt to change in a variety of ways. The most detrimental is getting stuck in the past. It is easy to fall into the trap of running your business while looking in the "rear-view mirror". Making decisions based on what has happened is dangerous and counterproductive to thriving and surviving in uncertain times. In a period of volatile uncertainty, one adaptive tool is to prepare for the unknown by scenario planning. Scenario Planning for Small Business Scenario planning is the process of creating possible future stories that can impact your small business. It is forward looking and helps prepare your business for the unthinkable. Scenario planning famed start was in the 1980's when Peter Schwartz of Royal Dutch Shell created one simple scenario: What if oil prices dropped dramatically? Shell thought the unthinkable. Then in 1986 when oil prices were cut in half, the company prospered while other companies were struggling. Winning Benefits of Scenario Planning Early Warning: The majority of winning business strategy results from awareness of the impending change. Knowing when to advance or retreat keeps your business alive and flourishing. New Opportunities: As your competitors struggle with changing conditions, your business will be poised to survive and thrive.

UNIVERSIDAD COOPERATIVA DE COLOMBIA “Profesionales con Criterios Políticos” Villavicencio – Meta – Colombia Risk Reduction: Running your small business with the assumption that change cannot impact your business will impact your business. Preparing for possible changes can reduce over exposure of capital and resources to uncertain risks. Vocabulary: Bestseller: Deal: Sales: Counterproductive: Thrive: Struggle: Awareness: Retreat: Exposure: Flourish: