Sumption Dominates The Global Demand For Rice Will Increase

sumption dominates the global demand for rice will increase demand by about 25%; lower intakes because of aging and the physically less active population would reduce it by about 5%, and improvements in average diets needed to eliminate the existing undernutrition would boost it by about the same amount. The single largest factor determining the eventual outcome will be the extent and rapidity of dietary change and even very conservative assumptions point to a decline on the order of 20%. This would leave us with the need to produce only about 5% more rice than we do now, or, bracketing the estimate by a factor of two, the range would be from no net increase at all to as much as a 10% higher output. Postharvest losses in the ten most populous rice-eating countries are on the order of 15% (Smil 2000) and cutting them in half during the next generation would only reinforce the conclusion that there may be no need for any net increase in rice production, or that the needed increase could be only a marginal addition of a few percent above the current level. Even in the unlikely case that these estimates err on the low side by as much as 100%, it is obvious that, during the first quarter of the 21st century, we will need increases in global rice production that will not be even remotely comparable to those of the past 25 years. Consequently, our research and development should concentrate primarily on the maintenance of existing yields, on improved nutritional quality, and on lowering the environmental effects of rice cultivation, particularly

on reducing large (commonly in excess of 60%) losses of nitrogen from applied urea (Cassman et al 2002).

References Caballero B, Popkin BM, editors. 2002. The nutrition transition: diet and disease in the developing world. Amsterdam (Netherlands): Elsevier. 261 p. Cassman KG et al. 2002. Agroecosystems, nitrogen-use efficiency, and nitrogen management. Ambio 31:132-140. Chern Wen S et al. 2003. Analysis of the food consumption of Japanese households. Rome (Italy): Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 88 p. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 1996. The sixth world food survey. Rome (Italy): FAO. 153 p. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations). 2002. The state of food insecurity in the world 2002. Rome (Italy): FAO. 36 p. Smil V. 2000. Feeding the world. Cambridge, Mass. (USA): The MIT Press. 360 p. UN (United Nations). 2002. World population prospects: the 2002 revision. New York (USA): UN. http://esa.un.org/unpp.

Notes Author’s address: Faculty of Environment, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg R3T 2N2, Canada, e-mail: [email protected].

Development of sustainable agriculture from rice, water, and the living environment Riota Nakamura

The Green Revolution based on the development of irrigated agriculture Wisdom developed from soil and water has continuously been the fundamental element of all human activities since ancient civilization. The tragedies and ruins of the Mesopotamian/ Sumerian civilization remind us of the significance of building sustainable agriculture and society. The drama of the collapse of Mesopotamia started with a gradual rising of the saline groundwater level. The collapse advanced rapidly when this level exceeded a threshold. It is well known that this problem was caused by faulty irrigation. Can we be confident that the current threshold is high enough when we look at the global expansion of commercialized agriculture and hazardously exploited water resources, such as in the Aral Sea basin, the Ogallala aquifer (Nebraska) and Central Valley (California) in the United States, Punjab and Haryana in India, and Northern China? A stable water supply was a strong driving force behind the Green Revolution. Irrigated agriculture provides an essen-

tial environment for high yield, so that improved bred varieties of crops can be fully used. From 1961 to 2002, global irrigated agricultural land roughly doubled from 139 million to 277 million ha, while total land for arable and permanent crops expanded slightly from 1,357 million to 1,534 million ha (Fig. 1). Global population and cereal production have also doubled from 3.08 billion to 6.23 billion and from 877 million metric tons to 2.03 billion metric tons. Irrigated land, which accounts for about 18% of agricultural land area, produces about 40% of the food for the global population, contributing considerably to the alleviation of global poverty and starvation. Sound and sustainable irrigated agriculture is indispensable for humankind to survive in the future. Now, about 70%, or 2,504 km3, of the world’s annual freshwater usage of 3,572 km3 is for agriculture, and, of this, about 70% is used mainly for rice paddy agriculture in Asia. Our generation is primarily responsible for assuring sustainable and efficient agriculture through wiser governance and management of soil and water resources.

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Index (1961 = 100) 250 240 230 220 210

Total cereal production (1961 = 100) Population (1961 = 100 Irrigation area (1961 = 100) Land for arable and permanent crops (1961 = 100) Rainfed area (1961 = 100)

200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120

2001 2002

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1961

90

1963

110

Year Fig. 1. World cereal production, population, and farmland area (1961-2002).

World water issues and conversion of policies for irrigation—from expansion to increasing efficiency of existing systems Fresh water existing on the global land surface in readily usable forms such as lakes, swamps, and rivers accounts for only about 0.0075% (104,620 km3) of all the water existing on our planet. This percentage is equivalent to the ratio of two teaspoonfuls of water (15 cm3) in a typical household bathtub full of water. Of the annual global rainfall on land, which supports the hydrologic cycle of fresh water, only about 40% (45,000 km3) becomes potential water resources after excluding evaporation. Humankind has to share this available water with other water uses such as industry, domestic use, and biodiversity while producing food for the more than 6 billion people living on the planet. In the 20th century, the century of fire and machines, we strived to develop water resources mostly through construction technologies such as large reservoirs, until the early 1980s. Not only drastic growth in the world human population but also worldwide trends of economic growth and expansion of cities, especially in developing countries, resulted in sharp increases in demand for domestic and industrial water use, and put strong and continuous pressure on the increase in water supplies. Water resource development by construction of “hardware” was promoted in many regions around the world. However, after the 1980s, this type of development met with certain limitations. Although the most effective way to increase water resources, speaking from an engineering viewpoint, was to build large reservoirs, appropriate construction sites for new reservoirs became limited. Moreover, govern24

Rice is life: scientific perspectives for the 21st century

ments of developing countries faced financial pressure for the operation and maintenance of overaged water facilities. In the 21st century, the century of water and life, another option has been recognized as a better solution. That is to increase the efficiency of the use of water in existing systems. In many countries, attempts to increase this efficiency have been made through (1) renovating irrigation water facilities such as lining canals with concrete, (2) introducing/reinforcing volumetric water pricing, and (3) introducing participatory irrigation management (PIM).

Efficiency of agricultural water use in different regional conditions—arid and humid Improving water-use efficiency in agriculture is a key issue during international water discussions nowadays. Many experts have reported case studies and mentioned success stories. These reports are helpful for improving water-use efficiency in regions where it is reasonable for farmers to constantly use a minimum amount of irrigation water to secure good crop growth. The concept of water-use efficiency in this definition is typically applicable to agriculture in arid/semiarid regions. This concept comes from the idea that all water should be consumed in crop fields in the form of evapotranspiration, allowing no water to be lost elsewhere. However, in humid regions blessed with abundant precipitation, the shortcomings of this concept have now come to be widely recognized. These shortcomings are mainly caused by neglect of the following factors accompanying rice paddy farming in these regions: (1) the highly substitutable characteristic of water usage and labor investment, (2) the dynami-

Socioeconomic externalities generated by irrigation and rice paddy agriculture in the Asian monsoon region

Automatically provided by agricultural activities Multiple use of water by farmers and residents Aquaculture, duck raising, washing, cleaning, bathing, cooling, gardening, fire fighting, etc. Nonuse-value in cultural-religious activities Multifaceted socioeconomic benefits to the public Protect aqua-ecosystem, enhance water-related environment, form landscape, recharge groundwater aquifer, stabilize downstream river flow by return flow, etc. Intentionally provided by special consideration and actions l l l l

Provide water from agriculture for domestic use during severe dry spells Increase performance of paddy fields while protecting reservoirs during extreme floods Create winter sanctuaries for migratory birds Restore groundwater level for downstream city, etc.

Fig. 2. Externalities provided by activities of irrigation and rice paddy agriculture.

cally fluctuating competitiveness among water users over the short term, and (3) the enormous value of socioeconomic elements other than food/fiber production; this value is defined as an “externality.” Factor 1 allows for reduced labor investment costs where farmers use much more than the minimum amount of water required for meeting crop water requirements. Factor 1 also allows for a drastic reduction in water use through farmers’ collective efforts during severe dry spells that occur unexpectedly under the conditions of factor 2. A considerable part of the water irrigated into rice paddy fields is not consumed but drained into the basin downstream during the rainy season from vast paddy fields in the Asian monsoon region. This is because (1) the value of water is quite low because of abundant precipitation and low competitiveness among water users, and (2) immersion cultivation with a larger amount of water than the equivalent to evapotranspiration reduces labor investment cost. This behavior seemingly decreases water-use efficiency, but, on the contrary, the affluent water use provides diverse and enormous value for socioeconomic externalities. The drained return flow also helps to preserve nature, resulting in any negative externality counting for nothing. Note that, in rice paddy agriculture in humid regions, the irrigation water automatically serves as an externality, whereas, in upland fields and relatively arid regions, the water has to be set aside and preserved, especially for externalities.

ture, duck raising, washing, cleaning, bathing, cooling, gardening, and fire fighting; (2) multifaceted socioeconomic benefits to the public such as protecting the aqua-ecosystem, enhancing the water-related environment, forming landscape, recharging the groundwater aquifer, and stabilizing downstream river flow by return flow; and (3) various other nonuse-values in cultural-religious activities (Fig. 2). The socioeconomic situation of countries in the Asian monsoon region is diversified, including tropical developing and temperate developed countries. However, predominant rice paddy agriculture and its enormous external value are common to them. Note that the external values are not only important for farmers and the economy in developing countries but are also very valuable for citizens of developed countries in providing multifaceted socioeconomic benefits. Water productivity, often advocated by the catch phrase “more crop per drop,” is a newly conceptualized term as an indicator of water-use efficiency in rainfed agriculture, using about 16,000 km3 of rainwater annually, as well as in irrigated agriculture. This concept, however, unjustly underestimates the water productivity of rice paddy agriculture in the Asian monsoon region. Therefore, it must be reevaluated after incorporating the high value of socioeconomic externalities.

Socioeconomic externalities in rice paddy agriculture in humid regions

Recent challenges to establish PIM in Asian monsoon countries show difficulties in transferring the operation and management (O&M) of irrigation from government agencies to farmers. Lessons learned from these challenges include how to establish effective incentives for farmers. Initially, strong economic incentives superior to disincentives such as labor

The enormous external value generated by irrigated rice paddy agriculture can be grouped in the following categories: (1) multiple use of water by farmers and residents for aquacul-

Traditional participatory irrigation management and governance (PIM/G) in rice paddy systems

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contributions of O&M and water charge are necessary to launch modernized operations. Afterward, the diverse values of socioeconomic externalities for farmers become driving forces to improve their performance. The diverse values are realized step by step through various group activities. Well-sustained traditional PIM shows many examples of built-in incentives related to externalities as well as agricultural production. When we look around the world, we find many current irrigation systems that have been fulfilling both requisites of food production and externalities, such as the Muang Fai in Thailand, Kanna in Sri Lanka, and Subak in Indonesia. The Dujiangyan irrigation system in Sichuan, China, was established in 250 B.C. and is still working for about 670,000 ha of farmland. In Japan, many old irrigation systems have lasted for centuries, with technology advancing in stages. It has to be noted that these systems always consist of weirs, canals, and ponds operated and managed by indigenous farmers’ organizations, namely, Land Improvement Districts (LIDs). Most of them are historically as old as their weirs and canals. The LIDs are responsible for O&M of nationwide canals extending a total length of about 400,000 km (equivalent to ten times around the globe). We found it very interesting that irrigation systems that achieve a good balance between externalities and food production are observed mostly in old systems. In presenting this paper at the WRRC, I wanted to mention representative canal systems that have completed the difficult task of satisfying both requisites.

Renaissance of efficient and sustainable rice production with socioeconomic externalities generated by PIM/G Group activities through PIM/G can generate much more value for externalities than individually disconnected activities. A good example is shown by a full cultural and religious performance in Bali, Indonesia. Such a group activity works as a platform for consultation in a local community and sometimes develops new activities such as mutual farming aid, group

composting, and joint ventures for purchasing and shipping. In Japan, agriculture has lost its substantial position in the country’s economy. However, farmer group activities through PIM/G create new values for socioeconomic externalities as a safety net against natural disasters and as a generator of resources for other sectors. At the WRRC, I can mention examples of providing water from agriculture to domestic use during severe dry spells, increasing the performance of paddy fields while protecting reservoirs during extreme floods, creating winter sanctuaries for migratory birds, and restoring groundwater levels for downstream water use in cities in winter. The value of socioeconomic externalities cannot be commercially exchanged, whereas agricultural products are widely traded in the international market. Irrigation systems and water accompanied by the value of externalities are social overhead capital and commons. Therefore, development programs for irrigated agriculture should take into account external value as a benefit vis-à-vis the cost of the investment. I believe that improving water-use efficiency by fully taking into account the value of socioeconomic externalities can create a future with more sustainable agriculture through a rice-based system. Sustainability of this agriculture will be strongly supported by interactions between human activities through PIM/G and broad-banded products, including various economic values, the living environment, and cultural-religious activities, as well as the agricultural product rice. The proposition I have maintained in this paper might be a claim for the renaissance of old systems because water management in the 21st century requires a holistic approach in harmony with various factors, including externalities, as some old irrigation systems have achieved. These old systems make a good guide for future sustainable development. I especially wish to acknowledge the contributions of Mr. Kazumi Yamaoka of the National Institute for Rural Engineering in co-authoring this document and preparing the presentation materials.

Research strategy for rice in the 21st century Ronald P. Cantrell and Gene P. Hettel Thank you for this opportunity to speak to you as one of the keynoters of this week’s World Rice Research Conference, which—as the culminating scientific event of the International Year of Rice 2004—has brought to Tsukuba the planet’s leading rice scientists to exchange the latest research information on key rice-related issues.

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Rice is life: scientific perspectives for the 21st century

Why rice research must continue Before we go into the details of what we think should be the research strategy for rice in the 21st century, I would like to discuss, briefly, why indeed rice research for developing countries must continue and be reinvigorated. Since the dawn of the Green Revolution—which began in Asia with IRRI’s release in 1966 of IR8, the first modern, high-yielding semidwarf rice variety—the global rice harvest has more than doubled, racing slightly ahead of population growth. This increased production and the resulting lower