Stem 2
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Reuters Company Research
StemCells, Inc. (STEM)
26 Sep 2008
Performance Rating: Neutral
1998
2008
Share Price Summary
Overview
Percent Price Change
Close Price on 9/26/08........................................... $1.08 Absolute Price Change on 9/26/08............................ 0.03 Percent Change..................................................... 2.86% Off 52-Week High...............................................-57.31% Over 52-Week Low................................................ 8.00% Beta....................................................................... 2.120
Float (mil)............................................................. 79.500 10 Day Average Volume (mil)................................... 0.433 1 Day Volume Change on 9/26/08........................ 36.90% Market Capitalization (mil)...........................................$87 TTM Price/Earnings......................................................NA Price/Earnings Current Fiscal Year Estimate...................NA
Year to Date...............................-28.00......... -17.37 One Year................................... -48.82......... -20.53 Two Years................................. -49.30........... -9.18 Three Years............................... -79.23........... -1.17 Five Years..................................-40.98.......... 20.53 Ten Years................................... 11.48.......... 15.66
STEM
S&P 500
General Sentiment ..................................5 Stock Price Rationale ..............................6 Expectations and Credibility .....................7
Footprints of Success ............................. 8
Table of Contents Reuters Rating ....................................... 2 Getting Acquainted ................................. 3 Share Price Trends .................................4
REUTERS COMPANY REPORT DISCLAIMER This research report is provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision. Reference to any company is not a recommendation to buy or sell the shares of such company. The information used for, or presented in, this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Reuters makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. This report in intended only for users in the United States. Reuters has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein becomes inaccurate. Reuters and/or its affiliates/investors may hold securities positions in the companies discussed in this report and may frequently trade in such positions. Such investments may be inconsistent with the quantitative analysis provided in this report. This report was generated using a proprietary quantitative model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to rank and rate a universe of more than 4700 US companies and US-listed ADRs with a market capitalization greater than $50mm based on a series of financial attributes. These ratings are not intended as an indication of how an individual's investment will perform. As used in this report, "Outperform" designates the companies that rank in the top 30% of companies covered by Reuters, "Neutral" designates the middle 40%, and the bottom 30% are designated "Underperform". All ratings are relative to the universe of companies covered by Reuters and not to any specific benchmark. © Reuters 2004. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, modified, distributed or published without the prior written authorization of Reuters. Reuters and the sphere logo are the trademarks or registered trademarks of the Reuters Group of companies around the world.
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Performance Rating: Neutral Reuters ratings are based on a proprietary model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to select attributes shown to be strong indicators of future stock price performance and applies these to rank stocks along a normal distribution curve. Ranks for Fundamental Quality, Value Catch-up, Operational Trends and Technical Factors are combined into a Composite Rating of Outperform, Neutral or Underperform.
Reuters Composite Rating
Component Rating
We cannot guarantee that each stock will perform in accordance with its rank. But we do believe that over the long term, stocks rated Outperform (30% of all stocks we rate) will, in the aggregate, outperform stocks rated Neutral (40% of all stocks we rate), and that stocks rated Neutral will, in the aggregate, outperform stocks rated Underperform (30%). All analysis is based on publicly available company financials, fundamental ratios, relative rankings of financial data and ratios, and observed security prices.
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Operational Trends 13%
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Fundamental Quality 36%
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STEM shares are presently rated NEUTRAL. No forecast is made for the stock market as a whole. But we believe it is probable that stocks rated NEUTRAL will, in the aggregate, perform generally in line with our coverage universe.
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Outperform
Types of investment criteria differ in how useful they are for predicting future stock movement. Based on our research, the Composite Rank assumes these relative degrees of importance.
Technical Factors
Un
Ou
Neutral
Fundamental Quality
ut Ne
Underperform
Component Weight
Value Catch-up 24%
Operational Trends
Value Catch-up
"Under" = Underperform
Fundamental Quality Component: Underperform This rating is based on characteristics traditionally associated with "good" companies. We focus on how each company measures up against others, and give careful attention to recent improvement or slippage relative to other companies. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Very Positive
TTM Return on Investment Improvement in TTM Return on Investment TTM Pretax Margin Improvement in TTM Pretax Margin Depreciation in Excess of Capital Spending Needs Issuance/Repurchase of Common Shares Common Shares Dilution Presence/Absence of Unusual Income Items
Technical Factors: Neutral This rating is based on analyses of share price movements over a variety of time periods. We compare performance characteristics of individual stocks with those of all the others we rate. Generally speaking, our goal is to favor up-trending shares that have experienced recent corrections and de-emphasize down-trending shares experiencing uncharacteristic periods of strength. Here is how STEM shares performed during the various periods we examined.
Price Change Past 7 days Past 30 days Past 60 days
-2.3% -11.5% -20.0%
Change for Past 180 Days: -29.9%
Value Catch-up Component: Outperform This rating measures the extent to which the share price adequately reflects improving or eroding fundamentals, and favors shares whose prices have been slower to "catch up" to improving performance measures. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
$1.54
Very Positive
Price Catch-up with TTM Earnings Price Catch-up to TTM Sales Price Catch-up to TTM Free Cash Flow Price Catch-up to MRQ Book Value
$1.08 Open on 4/2/08
Close on 9/26/08
Change Between 60 and 30 Days Ago: -9.6%
Operational Trends Component: Neutral This rating reflects how strong a company's recent Sales and EPS (reported as per GAAP) growth have been relative to other companies we rate. MRQ = Most Recent Quarter. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Very Positive
Most Recent Quarter EPS Growth Improvement in EPS Growth for Consecutive Quarters Improvement in EPS Growth (MRQ vs. TTM) Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth Improvement in Sales Growth (MRQ vs. TTM)
$1.22
$1.35 Open on 7/31/08
Close on 8/29/08
Change Between 180 and 60 Days Ago: -12.3%
$1.54 $1.35
Peer Comparison Open on 4/2/08
This section shows the comparison of key components between STEM and several of its peers.
Company Name (Ticker) StemCells, Inc. (STEM) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Bristol Myers Squibb Co... (BMY) Novartis AG (NOVN)
September 26, 2008
Composite Rating Neutral
Fundamental Quality Underperform
Technical Factors Neutral
Value Catch-up Outperform
Operational Trends Neutral
Underperform Underperform Underperform Neutral NA
Outperform Neutral Outperform Outperform NA
Underperform Underperform Underperform Underperform NA
Underperform Neutral Underperform Neutral NA
Underperform Neutral Neutral Neutral NA
Close on 7/31/08
Change Between 180 and 90 Days Ago: -24.0%
$1.54 $1.17 Open on 4/2/08
Close on 7/1/08
Page 2
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Getting Acquainted Start your analysis by learning what the company does, how well it does it, where it stands relative to peers, and whether aspects of the corporate structure or capitalization are bothersome to you.
Business Summary
Contact Info
StemCells, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery and development of cell-based therapeutics to treat damage to, or degeneration of, major organ systems. The Company has product development programs for two cell types: the human neural stem cell and human liver engrafting cells. In its CNS Program, the Company is conducting a Phase I clinical trial to evaluate the safety and preliminary efficacy of its HuCNS-SC product candidate (purified human neural stem cells) as a treatment for infantile and late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (NCL), two forms of a group of disorders often referred to as Batten disease. In addition, it is conducting preclinical work for spinal cord injury, myelin disorders and retinal disorders. In its Liver Program, the Company is in preclinical development with, and is continuing to improve processes to isolate and purify, its human liver engrafting cells (hLEC).
StemCells, Inc. is headquartered at: 3155 Porter Drive, Palo Alto, CA, 94304 United States (650) 475-3100 www.stemcellsinc.com/ Rodney Young, CFO
Financial Trends TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Fiscal Year Ending Sales (mil) EPS (GAAP) Dividends/Share Book Value/Share Tangible Book Value/Sh. Cash Flow/Share Free Cash Flow/Share
Historic Growth Rates 3 Year 5 Year
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
TTM
$0.3 ($0.45) $0.00 $0.27 $0.27 ($0.42) ($0.27)
$0.1 ($0.31) $0.00 $0.59 $0.59 ($0.29) ($0.24)
$0.2 ($0.18) $0.00 $0.50 $0.50 ($0.17) ($0.20)
$0.1 ($0.25) $0.00 $0.70 $0.69 ($0.24) ($0.23)
$0.1 ($0.31) $0.00 $0.44 $0.43 ($0.30) ($0.28)
$0.1 ($0.35) $0.00 * $0.28 * $0.27 ($0.34) ($0.30)
(26.06) NA NA (9.80) (10.46) NA NA
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
TTM
3 Year
(34.2) (15.0) 100.0 (4,449.5) 0.0 (79.0) (91.7) (281.8) 0.0 2.6 NA
(48.4) (31.3) 100.0 (10,922.0) 0.0 (45.5) (49.9) (64.0) 0.0 0.9 NA
46.1 (40.3) 100.0 (7,955.3) 0.0 (25.4) (27.4) (33.9) 0.0 1.1 NA
(54.9) 37.7 100.0 (22,978.5) 0.0 (33.9) (36.4) (43.7) 0.0 0.3 NA
(38.7) 23.5 100.0 (50,157.9) 0.0 (43.5) (47.6) (55.9) 0.0 0.1 NA
104.5 (32.3) NA (33,170.0) NA (60.9) (67.0) (80.5) 0.0 0.4 NA
(15.8) 7.0 100.0 (27,030.6) 0.0 (34.3) (37.2) (44.5) 0.0 0.5 NA
(32.77) NA NA 43.40 42.77 NA NA
10 Year (40.71) NA NA (12.45) (12.64) NA NA
Key Ratios Fiscal Year Ending % Sales Growth % EPS Growth % Gross Margin % Operating Margin % Tax Rate % Return on Assets % Return on Investment % Return on Equity Asset Turnover Receivables Turnover Inventory Turnover
Historic Averages 5 Year (26.0) (5.1) 100.0 (19,292.6) 0.0 (45.5) (50.6) (95.9) 0.0 1.0 NA
10 Year 65.1 (1.7) 100.0 (11,823.0) 0.0 (46.2) (52.6) (97.8) 0.1 6.0 NA
Equity Information
Analyst Footnotes
Whether you are willing to accept companies that have or don't have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks, multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company.
Look for accounting changes, restructurings, etc.which may affect how useful historic data is inassessing future company prospects.
Common $.01 Par, 7/08, 125M auth., 80,890,578 issd. Insiders control approx. 5%. (incl. 2.7M in options). IPO 3/92, 2.25M shares @ $11.00 by Robertson, Stephens & Co. PO 9/95, 2.3M shares @ $9.375. 10/93, issued 2.5M shs. of Common Stock in private placement. *5/00, Name changed from Cytotherapeutics, Inc.
FY'95 Q. EPS reflects change in shares o/s and are stated as reported by the Company. Summarized Qs reflect the restatement.
Peer Comparison This table gives an indication of how StemCells, Inc. stands in key respects compared with companies in the Biotechnology & Drugs Industry
Company Name (Ticker) StemCells, Inc. (STEM) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Bristol Myers Squibb Co... (BMY) Novartis AG (NOVN) GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) Genzyme Corporation (GENZ)
September 26, 2008
Last Fiscal Year Revenue (mil) $0.1
Current Fiscal Year Projected Revenue (mil) NA
Projected Price/Sales NA
Operating EPS ($0.31)
Current Fiscal Year Projected EPS NA
$24,197.7 $48,418.0 $25,914.2 $19,348.0 NA NA $3,813.5
$24,176.7 $48,691.7 $29,663.3 $20,898.5 NA NA $4,657.9
2.8 2.6 3.1 2.0 NA NA 4.7
$1.49 $1.18 $2.31 $0.99 NA NA $1.74
$3.29 $2.37 $3.28 $1.65 NA NA $3.95
P/E Based on Current Year EPS % Growth Estimates Previous 5 Years NA NA 9.7 7.9 18.1 12.6 NA NA 20.5
(12.9) (4.2) 7.4 (1.4) NA NA 27.5
EPS % Growth Next 5 Years NA 5.4 6.0 12.4 10.6 NA NA 18.5
Page 3
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Share Price Trends Stock price trends depict the collective opinion of the investment community. You don't have to agree with consensus views but seeing how others feel can help you decide what to look for as you go further in your analysis. Consider it similar to reading a review before seeing a movie.
1 Year Price Chart with Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength Technical analysts believe a narrowing of the bands suggests a significant price movement, up or down, will soon occur. Also, many say stocks that move outside the bands and then back inside will soon move toward the opposite band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates the strength of the current price movement compared to other recent moves and may signal when a trend is unsustainable. Technical analysts also believe RSI peaks/valleys forecast changes in share price trends.
High: 2.53 $2.53 2.13 1.73 1.33
Low: 1.00
Relative Strength Indicator
100% 50%
Volume (mil) Average Volume 0.46 Oct' 07
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
10 Year Price Chart (Monthly)
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
5 Year Price Chart (Monthly) $20.00 $6.00 15.00 4.80 10.00
3.60
5.00
2.40 1.20
0.04
0.02 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Vol (bil)
6 Month Price Chart (Daily)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Vol (bil)
1 Month Price Chart (Daily) $1.26
$1.75 1.65
1.20
1.55 1.45
1.14
1.35 1.25
1.08
1.15 1.02
1.05
0.35
0.32 Apr' 08
September 26, 2008
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Vol (mil)
Sep
Vol (mil)
Page 4
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
General Sentiment You can follow popular opinion or choose a contrarian's strategy. Either way, you should know whether the Street is bullish or bearish. Investor sentiment is typically positive when the 50-day moving average is rising, especially if it's also above the 200-day moving average. Additionally, changes in price trend can be deemed more definitive if supported by higher than normal volume.
52 Week Price History
200 Day Moving Average
$2.53
2.13
1.73
1.33 50 Day Moving Average
Volume (mil) Average Volume 0.46 Oct' 07
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Price History Calendar Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
High Price Low Price Year End Price
2.38 0.53 1.47
20.00 1.38 2.50
7.25 1.47 3.49
3.95 0.49 1.09
3.12 0.65 1.98
4.87 1.24 4.23
6.77 2.59 3.45
4.07 1.77 2.65
3.63 1.40 1.50
High P/E Low P/E Year End P/E Dividend Yield
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
Price Performance
Insider Trading
When stocks significantly beat or trail the S&P 500 or the industry, investors are looking more intently at company- specific matters than general-market factors. In the two percentile rank columns, a high "Rank in Industry" coupled with a low "Industry Rank" could signify a hot stock in a cold industry. The reverse, is also noteworthy.
Insider buying can be seen as bullish because, presumably, their company knowledge is superior. However, insider sales are less reliable because insiders may sell for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with their opinion of the stock.
Time Period 4 Week 13 Week 26 Week 52 Week Year To Date
Actual Change
Percent Change
vs. S&P 500
vs. Industry
Rank in Industry
Industry Rank
(0.14) (0.12) (0.48) (1.07) (0.42)
(11.5)% (10.0)% (30.8)% (49.8)% (28.0)%
(6.4)% (5.2)% (25.0)% (36.6)% (12.9)%
(7.6)% (20.1)% (39.2)% (52.6)% (36.8)%
43 45 42 44 53
60 90 98 92 95
BarChartKey
Rank Key
YTD R 4 Wk.
Worst R Best
A high or increasing short interest implies that many investors expect the stock price to decline. You can treat that as a warning. Or you can disagree with the crowd and buy stocks with high short interest in anticipation of a short squeeze (a rally that occurs when short sellers rush to buy a stock, fearing losses they might incur if they wait too long). Prospects for a squeeze are indicated by high readings in the "Days to Cover" column (which tells how many days it would take for all short interest positions to be covered if recent trading volume levels persist). The risk: The bears may be right. So research other aspects of the company. August 2008 July June May
September 26, 2008
Shares % Outstanding 3,239,000 3,696,000 3,902,000 3,633,000
4.00 4.57 4.82 4.49
Percent of Float 4.07 4.65 4.91 4.57
Days to Cover 14.93 14.61 17.27 9.77
Net Change (6 months) 6 Month Net Transactions
(0) mil (5)
Institutional Ownership 1 R 100
Short Interest
Month
In the last 6 months, there have been no insider purchases, and there have been 5 insider sales for a total of 208,000 shares.
It's worthwhile to know what institutions are doing simply because their stock positions can be so large. In the short term, stocks will perform well if institutions are buying and perform poorly if institutions are selling. 61 institutions own 8.3% of the 0.08 billion common shares outstanding. This is lower than the average institutional ownership of the Biotechnology & Drugs Industry at 37.6%, and lower than the average of the S&P 500 as a whole which is 72.2%. Net Change (3 month) Net Purchases (3 month) Shares Purchased (3 month) Shares Sold (3 month)
0.0% 0.03 mil 0.29 mil 0.26 mil
Page 5
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Stock Price Rationale Determine if the stock price is justified by: growth-based value, comparative value, liquid assets, or dividends. The better the company, (in terms of growth or quality), the higher the valuation measures can be. And if valuation ratios are extremely low, double-check to see if the company appears excessively weak. In any case, you don't have to say yes to any valuation measure - many buy shares based on other factors (e.g., growth). But if you do that, at least understand what you're doing and consider the risks.
Viewing Things In Context Many people erroneously work with valuation ratios calculated based on numbers that aren't truly representative of a company's underlying sustainable financial characteristics. Thus it's important to determine if today's sales and EPS are significantly depressed or elevated due to temporary factors such as business cycles. Higher ratios can be tolerated if sales and EPS are temporarily depressed. But if the company is experiencing unsustainable boom conditions, seek lower ratios. GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
Fiscal Year Ending Sales/Share Price/Sales EPS (GAAP) P/E (GAAP) EPS (Normalized) P/E (Normalized) Dividend Yield (%)
12/31/01
12/31/02
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
12/31/08E
12/31/09E
$0.04 NA ($0.25) NA ($0.22) NA NA
$0.02 NA ($0.53) NA ($0.48) NA NA
$0.01 NM ($0.45) NM ($0.36) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.31) NM ($0.25) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.18) NM ($0.14) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.25) NM ($0.24) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.31) NM ($0.30) NM 0.00
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Valuation Based On Growth The faster a company grows, the higher its stock's P/E can be. Contrary to popular belief, PEG (P/E over Growth Rate) need not always be 1.00 or less. But all else being equal, lower is better (and 3.00 is usually too high). Try to favor company PEGs that are lower than industry and market PEGs. In all cases, watch for very high growth estimates. If overly optimistic projections get cut, PEG would wind up being higher. FY = Fiscal Year.
Price/EPS (Est.) for Current FY StemCells, Inc. Biotechnology & Drugs S&P 500
NA 23.55 15.61
Price/EPS (Est.) for Next FY NA 19.61 13.66
Long Term Growth Estimate
Next FY P/E over LT Growth
NA 18.90 12.05
NA 1.06 1.29
Comparative Valuation Ratios
Dividends
Valuation below industry or S&P 500 averages can be attractive - unless the company is materially worse in terms of quality growth prospects. Year-by-year trends in comparative valuations can give clues about company merit. Be especially on guard if comparative ratios are deteriorating over time. On the other hand, relatively low valuations that are moving toward the averages might indicate that the market is tuning in to heretofore under-appreciated company merit. FY = Fiscal Year, TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Dividend is the most classic basis for stockvaluation, and high dividend yields are usuallydeemed preferable. Today, with many companiesreinvesting profits back into the business, moderateor low yields can be accepted if dividends growrapidly. The main risk is that poor performance willcause the dividend to be cut or omitted. A very highpayout ratio is one warning signal. Another is ayield that is very high relative to industry peers. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
StemCells, Inc. Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
NA NM NM NM NM
970.69 NM NM NM NM
* 3.85 3.32 4.77 7.60 7.11
NA (4.85) (13.84) (22.46) (14.68)
* 3.97 3.40 4.84 7.60 7.11
NA (5.22) (14.27) (18.86) (17.56)
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 12/31/07 FY Ending 12/31/06 FY Ending 12/31/05 FY Ending 12/31/04
Current Dividend Yield 5 Yr. Avg. Dividend Yield 5 Yr. Dividend Growth Rate TTM Payout Ratio 5 Yr. Average Payout Ratio
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
STEM
Industry
NA 0.0% NA NA NA
0.8% 0.1% 10.0% 1.7% 0.0%
Biotechnology & Drugs
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 2007 FY Ending 2006 FY Ending 2005 FY Ending 2004
Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
27.23 34.64 NA 49.13 46.83
7.33 8.20 NA 11.70 11.23
* 6.29 5.60 7.20 7.13 5.20
20.68 16.62 NA 31.29 23.55
* 11.75 12.54 13.14 10.86 9.65
31.82 22.39 32.45 38.03 37.70
Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
17.02 22.21 20.66 23.96 25.75
2.33 2.78 2.87 3.24 3.41
* 3.60 4.11 3.80 4.29 4.09
12.44 14.81 13.90 16.15 16.56
* 7.92 5.81 5.41 6.22 5.88
26.29 27.14 29.72 21.54 25.04
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
S&P 500
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 2007 FY Ending 2006 FY Ending 2005 FY Ending 2004
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
September 26, 2008
Liquid Assets Get a general sense of the extent to which the stockprice is offset by the presence of assets that can beconverted to cash immediately or in the near future. Often, these ratios will not be meaningful. Most companies are valued as ongoing businesses, rather than liquidation/buyout prospects. If you're lookingat an especially troubled company, be aware that seemingly liquid-asset windfalls can be dissipatedby continuing operating losses and/or shutdown costs.
Price to ...
STEM
Industry
General Working Capital 3.9 (current assets minus current liabilities)
12.7
Net Working Capital (current assets minus all liabilities)
5.4
8.9
Cash (& cash equivalents) Cash minus total debt Cash minus all liabilities
3.3 3.5 5.8
15.7 12.3 (4.9)
Page 6
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Expectations And Credibility In theory, stock prices are based on the "present value" of expected future company cash flows. Therefore, we try to obtain accurate estimates of future financial performance. But remember, these are just estimates. Since we cannot really know what will happen tomorrow, we evaluate estimates critically by seeking clues that help us distinguish between normal versus excessive degrees of uncertainty.
Estimates In Context Below are the present consensus revenue and EPS estimates. Notice whether analysts expect recent year-to-year growth trends to persist, or are forecasting sharp improvement or deterioration. The sharper the predicted change, the greater the level of uncertainty in the forecast. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
Mar 31st FY Ending 12/2005 FY Ending 12/2006 FY Ending 12/2007 FY Ending 12/2008 FY Ending 12/2009
Jun 30th
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E
Revenue ($mil) Sep 30th
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E
0.2 0.0 0.0 NA E NA E
Dec 31st
Year Total
0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E NA E
GAAP Earnings Per Share ($) Jun 30th Sep 30th Dec 31st
Mar 31st
0.2 0.1 0.1 NA E NA E
(0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.08) NA E
(0.06) (0.05) (0.07) (0.08) NA E
(0.12) (0.06) (0.09) NA E NA E
(0.07) (0.08) (0.10) NA E NA E
Year Total (0.18) (0.25) (0.31) NA E NA E
Confidence In Estimates
EPS Estimate Accuracy
The range of estimates can be measured by standard deviation. The narrower the range (the lower the standard deviation compared to the "mean" estimate) and/or the greater the number of analysts, the more definitive the expectations. Note, too, the extent to which company expectations are consistent with or diverge from those for industry and/or market.
Assess the extent to which analysts are accurateand have a handle on the earning trends bycomparing Estimates to Actual figures (which mayomit various charges/credits included in GAAPresults). The Actual figures are the ones that aremost comparable in accounting method to the Estimates. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
Long Term Growth Rate Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. NA 18.9 12.0
NA 3 5
NA 5.06 2.74
Near Term Growth Rate Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. STEM Industry S&P 500
NA 8.5 9.5
NA 6 11
NA 2.99 7.87
There is not enough data to dislpay EPS estimate accuracy for STEM.
Reasonableness Quarterly EPS Estimate Revisions
Look at the tables below to see if analysts are expecting the company to accomplish more than it has accomplished in the past. Such things can and do happen. But the stronger the predicted future (compared to the past), the greater the burden of proof on the part of those issuing the estimates.
Annual Growth 5 year Estimate 2008 Estimate Last 5 years Last 3 years Last Year Trailing 12 Months
EPS (%)
Sales (%)
NA NA NA NA (23.5) (32.3)
NA NA (32.8) (26.1) (38.7) 104.5
Quarterly Growth
EPS (%)
Current Period
Sales (%)
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions. Nov
May
Aug
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions.
Analyst Recommendation Trends Difference of opinion is normal, so don't demand unanimity. Look for ratings clusters in a part of the best-to-worst scale and at Mean Rating scores. Also important is whether analyst sentiment is improving or declining over time.
As of 9/26/08 As of 4 Weeks ago As of 8 Weeks ago As of 12 Weeks ago
Feb
Next Period
Buy (Value 1)
Outperform (Value 2)
Hold (Value 3)
Underperform (Value 4)
Sell (Value 5)
Mean Rating
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
Nov
Feb
Aug
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions. Nov
Bar Chart Key
May
Period After Next
Feb
May
Aug
Mean Rating
12 Wks ago R 9/26
1.00 = Best 5.00 = Worst
Annual EPS Estimate Revisions Since estimates address an unknowable future, revision (often prompted by company guidance) is to be expected. Investors are usually happy when analysts are scrambling to chase reality upward. So increases in estimates tend to spark strong share price performance. The reverse is usually true when estimates are falling.
There is currently not enough data available to use to display annual EPS estimate revisions.
Oct' 07
September 26, 2008
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Page 7
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Footprints of Success In many respects, business success requires subjective judgment. However, over time, good companies tend to leave good footprints, which become most visible when company data is compared to industry/sector/market benchmarks. That's how you see when companies perform well, not just because a rising business tide lifts all boats, but because the company is doing unique, good things. Look, too, at time-series comparisons, and take note of companies that are improving faster or suffering less than peers.
Growth Rates (%) Investors are accustomed to looking at EPS growth. Check sales growth, too. EPS gains can't persist indefinitely without good sales growth. Do further investigation if sales trends are falling short. (A big short fall might reflect a divestiture. On the other hand, if sales growth looks too good, check to see if it's being boosted by an acquisition.) Also, compare sales growth to capital spending growth. Over a prolonged period, it's reasonable to expect capital spending growth to more or less keep pace with sales growth. If the latter is significantly higher, capital spending may have to accelerate in the next few years.
% Growth Rate
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
Sales Growth For Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth For Trailing 12 Months Sales Growth For Past 5 Years
275.0 104.5 (32.8)
19.0 17.2 32.1
15.7 14.3 18.7
13.2 14.4 15.4
91 86 13
42.8
20.2
11.1
13.0
81
(22.3) (32.3) NA
16.8 20.7 50.2
25.7 25.9 19.4
12.0 12.7 22.8
NA NA NA Worst R Best
Capital Spending Growth for Past 5 Years EPS Growth for Most Recent Quarter EPS Growth for Trailing Twelve Months EPS Growth for Past 5 Years
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA NA = Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA = Co. outperforming
Company Quality Some companies excel in obtaining high margins (watch out for very low tax rates, which may reflect special benefits that often won't persist indefinitely) while others are highly efficient. Still others are strong in both respects. These trade-offs are balanced in the Management Effectiveness returns, which combine both factors. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
NA 100.0 (33,170.0) (12,194.2) (31,827.8) (11,499.0) (31,377.8) (10,822.1) (31,377.8) (10,822.1) NA NA
70.4 69.7 15.3 13.7 19.1 20.7 19.6 15.0 8.4 8.4 29.8 30.7
67.4 67.5 17.7 17.5 22.8 23.6 18.9 17.8 12.6 12.2 23.8 28.1
44.7 44.7 18.2 19.7 22.8 22.7 16.8 18.8 11.9 13.1 29.9 30.8
97 74 NA NA NA 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
0.0 0.4 NA $1,500 $(470,667)
0.9 8.1 3.3 $976,175 $202,229
0.8 6.8 4.0 $608,945 $113,009
1.0 10.4 12.1 $994,955 $122,271
19 11 NA 2 NA
Management Effectiveness Ratios (%)
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
Return on Assets for TTM Return on Assets for Past 5 Years Return on Investment for TTM Return on Investment for Past 5 Years Return on Equity for TTM Return on Equity for Past 5 Years
(60.9) (39.9) (67.0) (43.5) (80.5) (55.8)
3.8 1.9 5.3 3.0 10.6 7.4
7.9 7.3 10.4 9.9 16.4 16.0
8.8 8.4 12.6 12.1 20.6 19.9
Profitability Ratios (%) Gross Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Gross Margin for Past 5 Years Operating Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Operating Margin for Past 5 Years EBITD Margin for Trailing Twelve Months EBITD Margin for Past 5 Years Pretax Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Pretax Margin for Past 5 Years Net Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Net Margin for Past 5 Years Effective Tax Rate for Trailing Twelve Months Effective Tax Rate for Past 5 Years
Efficiency Ratios (TTM) Asset Turnover Receivables Turnover Inventory Turnover Revenue/Employee Net Income/Employee
38 50 38 43 37 31 Worst R Best
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA
NA
NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
STEM vs. Industry
NA
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA
NA
STEM vs. Sector
= Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
STEM vs. S&P 500
= Co. outperforming
Financial Strength Quick Ratio (cash and marketable securities divided by current liabilities) and Current Ratio (all current assets divided by current liabilities) give a sense of how readily the company could cover current obligations if the sales were to stop. Higher ratios indicate greater liquidity. Different businesses have different cash inflow-outflow characteristics, so compare companies to industry averages. Similar comparisons are relevant for debt ratios (higher ratios indicate more debt and, hence, more financial risk) and interest coverage (lower numbers signify greater risk).
Quick Ratio Current Ratio Total Debt to Equity Long Term Debt to Equity Interest Coverage
September 26, 2008
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
5.6 5.6 4.9 3.9 NA
2.7 3.5 50.8 41.8 4.4
2.0 2.6 48.4 38.4 19.3
1.1 1.6 73.7 58.3 14.4
Company Rank in Industry 79 77 50 41 11 Worst R Best
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA NA = Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA = Co. outperforming
Page 8
StemCells, Inc. (STEM)
26 Sep 2008
Performance Rating: Neutral
1998
2008
Share Price Summary
Overview
Percent Price Change
Close Price on 9/26/08........................................... $1.08 Absolute Price Change on 9/26/08............................ 0.03 Percent Change..................................................... 2.86% Off 52-Week High...............................................-57.31% Over 52-Week Low................................................ 8.00% Beta....................................................................... 2.120
Float (mil)............................................................. 79.500 10 Day Average Volume (mil)................................... 0.433 1 Day Volume Change on 9/26/08........................ 36.90% Market Capitalization (mil)...........................................$87 TTM Price/Earnings......................................................NA Price/Earnings Current Fiscal Year Estimate...................NA
Year to Date...............................-28.00......... -17.37 One Year................................... -48.82......... -20.53 Two Years................................. -49.30........... -9.18 Three Years............................... -79.23........... -1.17 Five Years..................................-40.98.......... 20.53 Ten Years................................... 11.48.......... 15.66
STEM
S&P 500
General Sentiment ..................................5 Stock Price Rationale ..............................6 Expectations and Credibility .....................7
Footprints of Success ............................. 8
Table of Contents Reuters Rating ....................................... 2 Getting Acquainted ................................. 3 Share Price Trends .................................4
REUTERS COMPANY REPORT DISCLAIMER This research report is provided for informational purposes only and on the condition that it will not form the sole basis for any investment decision. Reference to any company is not a recommendation to buy or sell the shares of such company. The information used for, or presented in, this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Reuters makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. This report in intended only for users in the United States. Reuters has no obligation to update, modify or amend this report or to otherwise notify a reader thereof in the event that any matter stated herein becomes inaccurate. Reuters and/or its affiliates/investors may hold securities positions in the companies discussed in this report and may frequently trade in such positions. Such investments may be inconsistent with the quantitative analysis provided in this report. This report was generated using a proprietary quantitative model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to rank and rate a universe of more than 4700 US companies and US-listed ADRs with a market capitalization greater than $50mm based on a series of financial attributes. These ratings are not intended as an indication of how an individual's investment will perform. As used in this report, "Outperform" designates the companies that rank in the top 30% of companies covered by Reuters, "Neutral" designates the middle 40%, and the bottom 30% are designated "Underperform". All ratings are relative to the universe of companies covered by Reuters and not to any specific benchmark. © Reuters 2004. All rights reserved. This report may not be reproduced, modified, distributed or published without the prior written authorization of Reuters. Reuters and the sphere logo are the trademarks or registered trademarks of the Reuters Group of companies around the world.
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Performance Rating: Neutral Reuters ratings are based on a proprietary model that leverages widely accepted statistical methods and financial concepts to select attributes shown to be strong indicators of future stock price performance and applies these to rank stocks along a normal distribution curve. Ranks for Fundamental Quality, Value Catch-up, Operational Trends and Technical Factors are combined into a Composite Rating of Outperform, Neutral or Underperform.
Reuters Composite Rating
Component Rating
We cannot guarantee that each stock will perform in accordance with its rank. But we do believe that over the long term, stocks rated Outperform (30% of all stocks we rate) will, in the aggregate, outperform stocks rated Neutral (40% of all stocks we rate), and that stocks rated Neutral will, in the aggregate, outperform stocks rated Underperform (30%). All analysis is based on publicly available company financials, fundamental ratios, relative rankings of financial data and ratios, and observed security prices.
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Technical Factors 27% l ra er fo
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Operational Trends 13%
Ou
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Ne ut
Un
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Un
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Ne ut
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Fundamental Quality 36%
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Un
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STEM shares are presently rated NEUTRAL. No forecast is made for the stock market as a whole. But we believe it is probable that stocks rated NEUTRAL will, in the aggregate, perform generally in line with our coverage universe.
fo er
tp
Ou ut Ne
r de
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tp
Outperform
Types of investment criteria differ in how useful they are for predicting future stock movement. Based on our research, the Composite Rank assumes these relative degrees of importance.
Technical Factors
Un
Ou
Neutral
Fundamental Quality
ut Ne
Underperform
Component Weight
Value Catch-up 24%
Operational Trends
Value Catch-up
"Under" = Underperform
Fundamental Quality Component: Underperform This rating is based on characteristics traditionally associated with "good" companies. We focus on how each company measures up against others, and give careful attention to recent improvement or slippage relative to other companies. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Very Positive
TTM Return on Investment Improvement in TTM Return on Investment TTM Pretax Margin Improvement in TTM Pretax Margin Depreciation in Excess of Capital Spending Needs Issuance/Repurchase of Common Shares Common Shares Dilution Presence/Absence of Unusual Income Items
Technical Factors: Neutral This rating is based on analyses of share price movements over a variety of time periods. We compare performance characteristics of individual stocks with those of all the others we rate. Generally speaking, our goal is to favor up-trending shares that have experienced recent corrections and de-emphasize down-trending shares experiencing uncharacteristic periods of strength. Here is how STEM shares performed during the various periods we examined.
Price Change Past 7 days Past 30 days Past 60 days
-2.3% -11.5% -20.0%
Change for Past 180 Days: -29.9%
Value Catch-up Component: Outperform This rating measures the extent to which the share price adequately reflects improving or eroding fundamentals, and favors shares whose prices have been slower to "catch up" to improving performance measures. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
$1.54
Very Positive
Price Catch-up with TTM Earnings Price Catch-up to TTM Sales Price Catch-up to TTM Free Cash Flow Price Catch-up to MRQ Book Value
$1.08 Open on 4/2/08
Close on 9/26/08
Change Between 60 and 30 Days Ago: -9.6%
Operational Trends Component: Neutral This rating reflects how strong a company's recent Sales and EPS (reported as per GAAP) growth have been relative to other companies we rate. MRQ = Most Recent Quarter. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
Very Negative
Negative
Neutral
Positive
Very Positive
Most Recent Quarter EPS Growth Improvement in EPS Growth for Consecutive Quarters Improvement in EPS Growth (MRQ vs. TTM) Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth Improvement in Sales Growth (MRQ vs. TTM)
$1.22
$1.35 Open on 7/31/08
Close on 8/29/08
Change Between 180 and 60 Days Ago: -12.3%
$1.54 $1.35
Peer Comparison Open on 4/2/08
This section shows the comparison of key components between STEM and several of its peers.
Company Name (Ticker) StemCells, Inc. (STEM) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Bristol Myers Squibb Co... (BMY) Novartis AG (NOVN)
September 26, 2008
Composite Rating Neutral
Fundamental Quality Underperform
Technical Factors Neutral
Value Catch-up Outperform
Operational Trends Neutral
Underperform Underperform Underperform Neutral NA
Outperform Neutral Outperform Outperform NA
Underperform Underperform Underperform Underperform NA
Underperform Neutral Underperform Neutral NA
Underperform Neutral Neutral Neutral NA
Close on 7/31/08
Change Between 180 and 90 Days Ago: -24.0%
$1.54 $1.17 Open on 4/2/08
Close on 7/1/08
Page 2
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Getting Acquainted Start your analysis by learning what the company does, how well it does it, where it stands relative to peers, and whether aspects of the corporate structure or capitalization are bothersome to you.
Business Summary
Contact Info
StemCells, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the discovery and development of cell-based therapeutics to treat damage to, or degeneration of, major organ systems. The Company has product development programs for two cell types: the human neural stem cell and human liver engrafting cells. In its CNS Program, the Company is conducting a Phase I clinical trial to evaluate the safety and preliminary efficacy of its HuCNS-SC product candidate (purified human neural stem cells) as a treatment for infantile and late infantile neuronal ceroid lipofuscinosis (NCL), two forms of a group of disorders often referred to as Batten disease. In addition, it is conducting preclinical work for spinal cord injury, myelin disorders and retinal disorders. In its Liver Program, the Company is in preclinical development with, and is continuing to improve processes to isolate and purify, its human liver engrafting cells (hLEC).
StemCells, Inc. is headquartered at: 3155 Porter Drive, Palo Alto, CA, 94304 United States (650) 475-3100 www.stemcellsinc.com/ Rodney Young, CFO
Financial Trends TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Fiscal Year Ending Sales (mil) EPS (GAAP) Dividends/Share Book Value/Share Tangible Book Value/Sh. Cash Flow/Share Free Cash Flow/Share
Historic Growth Rates 3 Year 5 Year
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
TTM
$0.3 ($0.45) $0.00 $0.27 $0.27 ($0.42) ($0.27)
$0.1 ($0.31) $0.00 $0.59 $0.59 ($0.29) ($0.24)
$0.2 ($0.18) $0.00 $0.50 $0.50 ($0.17) ($0.20)
$0.1 ($0.25) $0.00 $0.70 $0.69 ($0.24) ($0.23)
$0.1 ($0.31) $0.00 $0.44 $0.43 ($0.30) ($0.28)
$0.1 ($0.35) $0.00 * $0.28 * $0.27 ($0.34) ($0.30)
(26.06) NA NA (9.80) (10.46) NA NA
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
TTM
3 Year
(34.2) (15.0) 100.0 (4,449.5) 0.0 (79.0) (91.7) (281.8) 0.0 2.6 NA
(48.4) (31.3) 100.0 (10,922.0) 0.0 (45.5) (49.9) (64.0) 0.0 0.9 NA
46.1 (40.3) 100.0 (7,955.3) 0.0 (25.4) (27.4) (33.9) 0.0 1.1 NA
(54.9) 37.7 100.0 (22,978.5) 0.0 (33.9) (36.4) (43.7) 0.0 0.3 NA
(38.7) 23.5 100.0 (50,157.9) 0.0 (43.5) (47.6) (55.9) 0.0 0.1 NA
104.5 (32.3) NA (33,170.0) NA (60.9) (67.0) (80.5) 0.0 0.4 NA
(15.8) 7.0 100.0 (27,030.6) 0.0 (34.3) (37.2) (44.5) 0.0 0.5 NA
(32.77) NA NA 43.40 42.77 NA NA
10 Year (40.71) NA NA (12.45) (12.64) NA NA
Key Ratios Fiscal Year Ending % Sales Growth % EPS Growth % Gross Margin % Operating Margin % Tax Rate % Return on Assets % Return on Investment % Return on Equity Asset Turnover Receivables Turnover Inventory Turnover
Historic Averages 5 Year (26.0) (5.1) 100.0 (19,292.6) 0.0 (45.5) (50.6) (95.9) 0.0 1.0 NA
10 Year 65.1 (1.7) 100.0 (11,823.0) 0.0 (46.2) (52.6) (97.8) 0.1 6.0 NA
Equity Information
Analyst Footnotes
Whether you are willing to accept companies that have or don't have major shareholders with controlling ownership blocks, multiple classes of common, or convertible debt or preferred issues is a matter of individual preference. Look here for anything along these lines that might make you more or less inclined to invest in this company.
Look for accounting changes, restructurings, etc.which may affect how useful historic data is inassessing future company prospects.
Common $.01 Par, 7/08, 125M auth., 80,890,578 issd. Insiders control approx. 5%. (incl. 2.7M in options). IPO 3/92, 2.25M shares @ $11.00 by Robertson, Stephens & Co. PO 9/95, 2.3M shares @ $9.375. 10/93, issued 2.5M shs. of Common Stock in private placement. *5/00, Name changed from Cytotherapeutics, Inc.
FY'95 Q. EPS reflects change in shares o/s and are stated as reported by the Company. Summarized Qs reflect the restatement.
Peer Comparison This table gives an indication of how StemCells, Inc. stands in key respects compared with companies in the Biotechnology & Drugs Industry
Company Name (Ticker) StemCells, Inc. (STEM) Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) Pfizer Inc. (PFE) Abbott Laboratories (ABT) Bristol Myers Squibb Co... (BMY) Novartis AG (NOVN) GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) Genzyme Corporation (GENZ)
September 26, 2008
Last Fiscal Year Revenue (mil) $0.1
Current Fiscal Year Projected Revenue (mil) NA
Projected Price/Sales NA
Operating EPS ($0.31)
Current Fiscal Year Projected EPS NA
$24,197.7 $48,418.0 $25,914.2 $19,348.0 NA NA $3,813.5
$24,176.7 $48,691.7 $29,663.3 $20,898.5 NA NA $4,657.9
2.8 2.6 3.1 2.0 NA NA 4.7
$1.49 $1.18 $2.31 $0.99 NA NA $1.74
$3.29 $2.37 $3.28 $1.65 NA NA $3.95
P/E Based on Current Year EPS % Growth Estimates Previous 5 Years NA NA 9.7 7.9 18.1 12.6 NA NA 20.5
(12.9) (4.2) 7.4 (1.4) NA NA 27.5
EPS % Growth Next 5 Years NA 5.4 6.0 12.4 10.6 NA NA 18.5
Page 3
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Share Price Trends Stock price trends depict the collective opinion of the investment community. You don't have to agree with consensus views but seeing how others feel can help you decide what to look for as you go further in your analysis. Consider it similar to reading a review before seeing a movie.
1 Year Price Chart with Bollinger Bands and Relative Strength Technical analysts believe a narrowing of the bands suggests a significant price movement, up or down, will soon occur. Also, many say stocks that move outside the bands and then back inside will soon move toward the opposite band. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculates the strength of the current price movement compared to other recent moves and may signal when a trend is unsustainable. Technical analysts also believe RSI peaks/valleys forecast changes in share price trends.
High: 2.53 $2.53 2.13 1.73 1.33
Low: 1.00
Relative Strength Indicator
100% 50%
Volume (mil) Average Volume 0.46 Oct' 07
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
10 Year Price Chart (Monthly)
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
5 Year Price Chart (Monthly) $20.00 $6.00 15.00 4.80 10.00
3.60
5.00
2.40 1.20
0.04
0.02 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Vol (bil)
6 Month Price Chart (Daily)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Vol (bil)
1 Month Price Chart (Daily) $1.26
$1.75 1.65
1.20
1.55 1.45
1.14
1.35 1.25
1.08
1.15 1.02
1.05
0.35
0.32 Apr' 08
September 26, 2008
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Vol (mil)
Sep
Vol (mil)
Page 4
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
General Sentiment You can follow popular opinion or choose a contrarian's strategy. Either way, you should know whether the Street is bullish or bearish. Investor sentiment is typically positive when the 50-day moving average is rising, especially if it's also above the 200-day moving average. Additionally, changes in price trend can be deemed more definitive if supported by higher than normal volume.
52 Week Price History
200 Day Moving Average
$2.53
2.13
1.73
1.33 50 Day Moving Average
Volume (mil) Average Volume 0.46 Oct' 07
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Price History Calendar Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
High Price Low Price Year End Price
2.38 0.53 1.47
20.00 1.38 2.50
7.25 1.47 3.49
3.95 0.49 1.09
3.12 0.65 1.98
4.87 1.24 4.23
6.77 2.59 3.45
4.07 1.77 2.65
3.63 1.40 1.50
High P/E Low P/E Year End P/E Dividend Yield
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
NA NA NM NM
Price Performance
Insider Trading
When stocks significantly beat or trail the S&P 500 or the industry, investors are looking more intently at company- specific matters than general-market factors. In the two percentile rank columns, a high "Rank in Industry" coupled with a low "Industry Rank" could signify a hot stock in a cold industry. The reverse, is also noteworthy.
Insider buying can be seen as bullish because, presumably, their company knowledge is superior. However, insider sales are less reliable because insiders may sell for a variety of reasons that have nothing to do with their opinion of the stock.
Time Period 4 Week 13 Week 26 Week 52 Week Year To Date
Actual Change
Percent Change
vs. S&P 500
vs. Industry
Rank in Industry
Industry Rank
(0.14) (0.12) (0.48) (1.07) (0.42)
(11.5)% (10.0)% (30.8)% (49.8)% (28.0)%
(6.4)% (5.2)% (25.0)% (36.6)% (12.9)%
(7.6)% (20.1)% (39.2)% (52.6)% (36.8)%
43 45 42 44 53
60 90 98 92 95
BarChartKey
Rank Key
YTD R 4 Wk.
Worst R Best
A high or increasing short interest implies that many investors expect the stock price to decline. You can treat that as a warning. Or you can disagree with the crowd and buy stocks with high short interest in anticipation of a short squeeze (a rally that occurs when short sellers rush to buy a stock, fearing losses they might incur if they wait too long). Prospects for a squeeze are indicated by high readings in the "Days to Cover" column (which tells how many days it would take for all short interest positions to be covered if recent trading volume levels persist). The risk: The bears may be right. So research other aspects of the company. August 2008 July June May
September 26, 2008
Shares % Outstanding 3,239,000 3,696,000 3,902,000 3,633,000
4.00 4.57 4.82 4.49
Percent of Float 4.07 4.65 4.91 4.57
Days to Cover 14.93 14.61 17.27 9.77
Net Change (6 months) 6 Month Net Transactions
(0) mil (5)
Institutional Ownership 1 R 100
Short Interest
Month
In the last 6 months, there have been no insider purchases, and there have been 5 insider sales for a total of 208,000 shares.
It's worthwhile to know what institutions are doing simply because their stock positions can be so large. In the short term, stocks will perform well if institutions are buying and perform poorly if institutions are selling. 61 institutions own 8.3% of the 0.08 billion common shares outstanding. This is lower than the average institutional ownership of the Biotechnology & Drugs Industry at 37.6%, and lower than the average of the S&P 500 as a whole which is 72.2%. Net Change (3 month) Net Purchases (3 month) Shares Purchased (3 month) Shares Sold (3 month)
0.0% 0.03 mil 0.29 mil 0.26 mil
Page 5
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Stock Price Rationale Determine if the stock price is justified by: growth-based value, comparative value, liquid assets, or dividends. The better the company, (in terms of growth or quality), the higher the valuation measures can be. And if valuation ratios are extremely low, double-check to see if the company appears excessively weak. In any case, you don't have to say yes to any valuation measure - many buy shares based on other factors (e.g., growth). But if you do that, at least understand what you're doing and consider the risks.
Viewing Things In Context Many people erroneously work with valuation ratios calculated based on numbers that aren't truly representative of a company's underlying sustainable financial characteristics. Thus it's important to determine if today's sales and EPS are significantly depressed or elevated due to temporary factors such as business cycles. Higher ratios can be tolerated if sales and EPS are temporarily depressed. But if the company is experiencing unsustainable boom conditions, seek lower ratios. GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles.
Fiscal Year Ending Sales/Share Price/Sales EPS (GAAP) P/E (GAAP) EPS (Normalized) P/E (Normalized) Dividend Yield (%)
12/31/01
12/31/02
12/31/03
12/31/04
12/31/05
12/31/06
12/31/07
12/31/08E
12/31/09E
$0.04 NA ($0.25) NA ($0.22) NA NA
$0.02 NA ($0.53) NA ($0.48) NA NA
$0.01 NM ($0.45) NM ($0.36) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.31) NM ($0.25) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.18) NM ($0.14) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.25) NM ($0.24) NM 0.00
$0.00 NM ($0.31) NM ($0.30) NM 0.00
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Valuation Based On Growth The faster a company grows, the higher its stock's P/E can be. Contrary to popular belief, PEG (P/E over Growth Rate) need not always be 1.00 or less. But all else being equal, lower is better (and 3.00 is usually too high). Try to favor company PEGs that are lower than industry and market PEGs. In all cases, watch for very high growth estimates. If overly optimistic projections get cut, PEG would wind up being higher. FY = Fiscal Year.
Price/EPS (Est.) for Current FY StemCells, Inc. Biotechnology & Drugs S&P 500
NA 23.55 15.61
Price/EPS (Est.) for Next FY NA 19.61 13.66
Long Term Growth Estimate
Next FY P/E over LT Growth
NA 18.90 12.05
NA 1.06 1.29
Comparative Valuation Ratios
Dividends
Valuation below industry or S&P 500 averages can be attractive - unless the company is materially worse in terms of quality growth prospects. Year-by-year trends in comparative valuations can give clues about company merit. Be especially on guard if comparative ratios are deteriorating over time. On the other hand, relatively low valuations that are moving toward the averages might indicate that the market is tuning in to heretofore under-appreciated company merit. FY = Fiscal Year, TTM = Trailing Twelve Months, * = Most Recent Quarter.
Dividend is the most classic basis for stockvaluation, and high dividend yields are usuallydeemed preferable. Today, with many companiesreinvesting profits back into the business, moderateor low yields can be accepted if dividends growrapidly. The main risk is that poor performance willcause the dividend to be cut or omitted. A very highpayout ratio is one warning signal. Another is ayield that is very high relative to industry peers. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
StemCells, Inc. Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
NA NM NM NM NM
970.69 NM NM NM NM
* 3.85 3.32 4.77 7.60 7.11
NA (4.85) (13.84) (22.46) (14.68)
* 3.97 3.40 4.84 7.60 7.11
NA (5.22) (14.27) (18.86) (17.56)
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 12/31/07 FY Ending 12/31/06 FY Ending 12/31/05 FY Ending 12/31/04
Current Dividend Yield 5 Yr. Avg. Dividend Yield 5 Yr. Dividend Growth Rate TTM Payout Ratio 5 Yr. Average Payout Ratio
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
STEM
Industry
NA 0.0% NA NA NA
0.8% 0.1% 10.0% 1.7% 0.0%
Biotechnology & Drugs
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 2007 FY Ending 2006 FY Ending 2005 FY Ending 2004
Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
27.23 34.64 NA 49.13 46.83
7.33 8.20 NA 11.70 11.23
* 6.29 5.60 7.20 7.13 5.20
20.68 16.62 NA 31.29 23.55
* 11.75 12.54 13.14 10.86 9.65
31.82 22.39 32.45 38.03 37.70
Price/ Earnings
Price/ Sales
Price/ Book
Price/ Cash Flow
Price/ Tang. Book
Price/Free Cash Flow
17.02 22.21 20.66 23.96 25.75
2.33 2.78 2.87 3.24 3.41
* 3.60 4.11 3.80 4.29 4.09
12.44 14.81 13.90 16.15 16.56
* 7.92 5.81 5.41 6.22 5.88
26.29 27.14 29.72 21.54 25.04
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
S&P 500
Trailing 12 Months FY Ending 2007 FY Ending 2006 FY Ending 2005 FY Ending 2004
Bar Chart Key 2004 R TTM
September 26, 2008
Liquid Assets Get a general sense of the extent to which the stockprice is offset by the presence of assets that can beconverted to cash immediately or in the near future. Often, these ratios will not be meaningful. Most companies are valued as ongoing businesses, rather than liquidation/buyout prospects. If you're lookingat an especially troubled company, be aware that seemingly liquid-asset windfalls can be dissipatedby continuing operating losses and/or shutdown costs.
Price to ...
STEM
Industry
General Working Capital 3.9 (current assets minus current liabilities)
12.7
Net Working Capital (current assets minus all liabilities)
5.4
8.9
Cash (& cash equivalents) Cash minus total debt Cash minus all liabilities
3.3 3.5 5.8
15.7 12.3 (4.9)
Page 6
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Expectations And Credibility In theory, stock prices are based on the "present value" of expected future company cash flows. Therefore, we try to obtain accurate estimates of future financial performance. But remember, these are just estimates. Since we cannot really know what will happen tomorrow, we evaluate estimates critically by seeking clues that help us distinguish between normal versus excessive degrees of uncertainty.
Estimates In Context Below are the present consensus revenue and EPS estimates. Notice whether analysts expect recent year-to-year growth trends to persist, or are forecasting sharp improvement or deterioration. The sharper the predicted change, the greater the level of uncertainty in the forecast. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
Mar 31st FY Ending 12/2005 FY Ending 12/2006 FY Ending 12/2007 FY Ending 12/2008 FY Ending 12/2009
Jun 30th
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E
Revenue ($mil) Sep 30th
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E
0.2 0.0 0.0 NA E NA E
Dec 31st
Year Total
0.0 0.0 0.0 NA E NA E
GAAP Earnings Per Share ($) Jun 30th Sep 30th Dec 31st
Mar 31st
0.2 0.1 0.1 NA E NA E
(0.06) (0.06) (0.06) (0.08) NA E
(0.06) (0.05) (0.07) (0.08) NA E
(0.12) (0.06) (0.09) NA E NA E
(0.07) (0.08) (0.10) NA E NA E
Year Total (0.18) (0.25) (0.31) NA E NA E
Confidence In Estimates
EPS Estimate Accuracy
The range of estimates can be measured by standard deviation. The narrower the range (the lower the standard deviation compared to the "mean" estimate) and/or the greater the number of analysts, the more definitive the expectations. Note, too, the extent to which company expectations are consistent with or diverge from those for industry and/or market.
Assess the extent to which analysts are accurateand have a handle on the earning trends bycomparing Estimates to Actual figures (which mayomit various charges/credits included in GAAPresults). The Actual figures are the ones that aremost comparable in accounting method to the Estimates. (GAAP = Generally Accepted Accounting Principles)
Long Term Growth Rate Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. NA 18.9 12.0
NA 3 5
NA 5.06 2.74
Near Term Growth Rate Mean # of Estimates Standard Dev. STEM Industry S&P 500
NA 8.5 9.5
NA 6 11
NA 2.99 7.87
There is not enough data to dislpay EPS estimate accuracy for STEM.
Reasonableness Quarterly EPS Estimate Revisions
Look at the tables below to see if analysts are expecting the company to accomplish more than it has accomplished in the past. Such things can and do happen. But the stronger the predicted future (compared to the past), the greater the burden of proof on the part of those issuing the estimates.
Annual Growth 5 year Estimate 2008 Estimate Last 5 years Last 3 years Last Year Trailing 12 Months
EPS (%)
Sales (%)
NA NA NA NA (23.5) (32.3)
NA NA (32.8) (26.1) (38.7) 104.5
Quarterly Growth
EPS (%)
Current Period
Sales (%)
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions. Nov
May
Aug
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions.
Analyst Recommendation Trends Difference of opinion is normal, so don't demand unanimity. Look for ratings clusters in a part of the best-to-worst scale and at Mean Rating scores. Also important is whether analyst sentiment is improving or declining over time.
As of 9/26/08 As of 4 Weeks ago As of 8 Weeks ago As of 12 Weeks ago
Feb
Next Period
Buy (Value 1)
Outperform (Value 2)
Hold (Value 3)
Underperform (Value 4)
Sell (Value 5)
Mean Rating
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA
Nov
Feb
Aug
There is currently not enough data available to use to display quarterly EPS estimate revisions. Nov
Bar Chart Key
May
Period After Next
Feb
May
Aug
Mean Rating
12 Wks ago R 9/26
1.00 = Best 5.00 = Worst
Annual EPS Estimate Revisions Since estimates address an unknowable future, revision (often prompted by company guidance) is to be expected. Investors are usually happy when analysts are scrambling to chase reality upward. So increases in estimates tend to spark strong share price performance. The reverse is usually true when estimates are falling.
There is currently not enough data available to use to display annual EPS estimate revisions.
Oct' 07
September 26, 2008
Nov
Dec
Jan' 08
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Page 7
StemCells, Inc. (NASD:STEM) -- Biotechnology & Drugs/Healthcare
Reuters Company Research
Footprints of Success In many respects, business success requires subjective judgment. However, over time, good companies tend to leave good footprints, which become most visible when company data is compared to industry/sector/market benchmarks. That's how you see when companies perform well, not just because a rising business tide lifts all boats, but because the company is doing unique, good things. Look, too, at time-series comparisons, and take note of companies that are improving faster or suffering less than peers.
Growth Rates (%) Investors are accustomed to looking at EPS growth. Check sales growth, too. EPS gains can't persist indefinitely without good sales growth. Do further investigation if sales trends are falling short. (A big short fall might reflect a divestiture. On the other hand, if sales growth looks too good, check to see if it's being boosted by an acquisition.) Also, compare sales growth to capital spending growth. Over a prolonged period, it's reasonable to expect capital spending growth to more or less keep pace with sales growth. If the latter is significantly higher, capital spending may have to accelerate in the next few years.
% Growth Rate
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
Sales Growth For Most Recent Quarter Sales Growth For Trailing 12 Months Sales Growth For Past 5 Years
275.0 104.5 (32.8)
19.0 17.2 32.1
15.7 14.3 18.7
13.2 14.4 15.4
91 86 13
42.8
20.2
11.1
13.0
81
(22.3) (32.3) NA
16.8 20.7 50.2
25.7 25.9 19.4
12.0 12.7 22.8
NA NA NA Worst R Best
Capital Spending Growth for Past 5 Years EPS Growth for Most Recent Quarter EPS Growth for Trailing Twelve Months EPS Growth for Past 5 Years
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA NA = Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA = Co. outperforming
Company Quality Some companies excel in obtaining high margins (watch out for very low tax rates, which may reflect special benefits that often won't persist indefinitely) while others are highly efficient. Still others are strong in both respects. These trade-offs are balanced in the Management Effectiveness returns, which combine both factors. TTM = Trailing Twelve Months.
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
NA 100.0 (33,170.0) (12,194.2) (31,827.8) (11,499.0) (31,377.8) (10,822.1) (31,377.8) (10,822.1) NA NA
70.4 69.7 15.3 13.7 19.1 20.7 19.6 15.0 8.4 8.4 29.8 30.7
67.4 67.5 17.7 17.5 22.8 23.6 18.9 17.8 12.6 12.2 23.8 28.1
44.7 44.7 18.2 19.7 22.8 22.7 16.8 18.8 11.9 13.1 29.9 30.8
97 74 NA NA NA 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
0.0 0.4 NA $1,500 $(470,667)
0.9 8.1 3.3 $976,175 $202,229
0.8 6.8 4.0 $608,945 $113,009
1.0 10.4 12.1 $994,955 $122,271
19 11 NA 2 NA
Management Effectiveness Ratios (%)
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
Company Rank in Industry
Return on Assets for TTM Return on Assets for Past 5 Years Return on Investment for TTM Return on Investment for Past 5 Years Return on Equity for TTM Return on Equity for Past 5 Years
(60.9) (39.9) (67.0) (43.5) (80.5) (55.8)
3.8 1.9 5.3 3.0 10.6 7.4
7.9 7.3 10.4 9.9 16.4 16.0
8.8 8.4 12.6 12.1 20.6 19.9
Profitability Ratios (%) Gross Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Gross Margin for Past 5 Years Operating Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Operating Margin for Past 5 Years EBITD Margin for Trailing Twelve Months EBITD Margin for Past 5 Years Pretax Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Pretax Margin for Past 5 Years Net Margin for Trailing Twelve Months Net Margin for Past 5 Years Effective Tax Rate for Trailing Twelve Months Effective Tax Rate for Past 5 Years
Efficiency Ratios (TTM) Asset Turnover Receivables Turnover Inventory Turnover Revenue/Employee Net Income/Employee
38 50 38 43 37 31 Worst R Best
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA
NA
NA
NA NA
NA NA
NA NA
STEM vs. Industry
NA
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA
NA
STEM vs. Sector
= Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
STEM vs. S&P 500
= Co. outperforming
Financial Strength Quick Ratio (cash and marketable securities divided by current liabilities) and Current Ratio (all current assets divided by current liabilities) give a sense of how readily the company could cover current obligations if the sales were to stop. Higher ratios indicate greater liquidity. Different businesses have different cash inflow-outflow characteristics, so compare companies to industry averages. Similar comparisons are relevant for debt ratios (higher ratios indicate more debt and, hence, more financial risk) and interest coverage (lower numbers signify greater risk).
Quick Ratio Current Ratio Total Debt to Equity Long Term Debt to Equity Interest Coverage
September 26, 2008
STEM
Industry
Sector
S&P 500
5.6 5.6 4.9 3.9 NA
2.7 3.5 50.8 41.8 4.4
2.0 2.6 48.4 38.4 19.3
1.1 1.6 73.7 58.3 14.4
Company Rank in Industry 79 77 50 41 11 Worst R Best
STEM vs. Industry
STEM vs. Sector
NA NA = Co. underperforming
STEM vs. S&P 500
NA = Co. outperforming
Page 8
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