State Economy Das

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

1 State Economy DAs

Sugar Key to US Economy.............................................................................................................................................2 **Minnesota**................................................................................................................................................................3 Minnesota DA - 1NC Shell 1/2.......................................................................................................................................4 Minnesota DA - 1NC Shell 2/2.......................................................................................................................................5 Uniqueness - Minnesota economy up.............................................................................................................................6 Link - Subsides general...................................................................................................................................................7 Link – Dairy Subsidies....................................................................................................................................................8 Link – Sugar Subsidies...................................................................................................................................................9 Link – Sugar Subsidies ................................................................................................................................................10 Internal link - Agriculture Key to Minnesota ...............................................................................................................11 Brink - Minnesota economy..........................................................................................................................................12 Impact - Mexico – Economy High ...............................................................................................................................13 Impact - Mexico - Key to global economy .................................................................................................................14 Impact – US Economy Scenario - Sugar......................................................................................................................15 **Louisiana** ..............................................................................................................................................................16 Louisiana DA - 1NC shell 1/2......................................................................................................................................17 Louisiana DA - 1NC shell 2/2.......................................................................................................................................18 Louisiana – Uniqueness - Economy up........................................................................................................................19 Louisiana – Uniqueness - Economy up........................................................................................................................20 Link - Cotton ................................................................................................................................................................21 Link - Rice subsidies.....................................................................................................................................................22 Link - Sugar..................................................................................................................................................................23 Link - Sugar..................................................................................................................................................................24 Sugar key Louisiana Economy.....................................................................................................................................25 Agriculture K to Louisiana Economy...........................................................................................................................26 Brink - Louisiana sugar industry ..................................................................................................................................27 Louisiana Key to Economy...........................................................................................................................................28 2NC sugar industry/1....................................................................................................................................................29 2NC sugar industry/2 ...................................................................................................................................................30 ***Florida***...............................................................................................................................................................31 Florida DA – 1NC Shell................................................................................................................................................32 Florida DA – 1NC Shell 2/2..........................................................................................................................................33 Florida Uniqueness – Economy Strong Now................................................................................................................34 Florida – Link - Sugar ..................................................................................................................................................35 ***Aff***....................................................................................................................................................................36 Minnesota - Non-Unique – Economy Low Now..........................................................................................................38 Minnesota – Turn - Soybeans .......................................................................................................................................39 Minnesota - Turn – Tradeoff w/Other Industries..........................................................................................................40 Minnesota - No Internal Link – Manufacturing Key ...................................................................................................41 Minnesota - Mexico Economy turn .............................................................................................................................42 Minnesota – Impact - Mexico not Key to Global economy .........................................................................................43 Louisiana – Non-Unique – Economy Low Now..........................................................................................................44 Louisiana – Non-Unique – Economy Low Now..........................................................................................................45 Louisiana – Sugar Link Turn.......................................................................................................................................46 Florida – Non–Unique - Economy Low Now..............................................................................................................47 Florida – Non–Unique - Economy Low Now..............................................................................................................48 Florida – Non–Unique - Sugar Industry ↓ SQ..............................................................................................................49 Florida – Turn - Environment.......................................................................................................................................50

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

2 State Economy DAs

Sugar Key to US Economy Sugar Industry key to US economy Jones 3 (Calvin, CEO ,Wyoming Sugar Company, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, “Domestic Natural Gas Supply Shortage”, 6-19, Lexis, Accessed: 6/8/2005) I am here representing the Beet Sugar Industry as part of a much larger "Sweetener Industry" that consists of sugarbeet, sugar cane and corn. This industry annually creates $21.1 billion of economic activity in 42 states. The industry provides American consumer with high quality sweeteners for various applications. American consumers pay 22 percent less than their counterparts in other developed countries. The beet sugar segment of this industry plants over 1,400,000 acres of sugar beets in 12 states that are processed by 27 beet sugar factories. The industry creates 88,200 full time direct and indirect jobs for people across the nation. Wyoming is one of the 12 sugar beet producing states where over 400 growers produce about 56,000 acres of sugar beets. Those beets are then processed by three factories operated by two companies, Wyoming Sugar Company, LLC and Western Sugar Cooperative. The economic activity generated in the state of Wyoming each year by the Sweetener Industry is $159,600,000.1 The US Sweetener

Industry is integral to the national economy, as a well as each state where sweeteners are grown and processed. Current United States sugar policy allows efficient U.S. beet, cane and corn growers and processors to compete against unfair foreign subsidies and trade practices. The program provides reliable supplies of sugar at fair and stable prices

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

**Minnesota**

3 State Economy DAs

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

4 State Economy DAs

Minnesota DA - 1NC Shell 1/2 A. Minnesota economy growing now job growth Minnesota Public radio 7-17 (Martin Moylan, “Minnesota employers add 3,400 jobs in June”, http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/07/17/minnesota_jobs/) Minnesota gained jobs for the second consecutive month in June, as employers added 3,400 positions. That's on top of 2,500 additional jobs in May. Oriane Casale of the Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development says the state's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate dropped to 5.3 percent. Meanwhile, the national unemployment rate held steady at 5.5 percent in June. "Well , it's certainly positive news. We also remained at 0.3 percent over-the-year job growth, which is where we've been for the past couple of months. And at the same time, the nation has gone into negative territory," Casale said. "So, it looks like we're holding our own in terms on the nation-wide economy." Minnesota has added 1,900 jobs through the first half of the year. But the nation has lost more than 400,000 jobs during that period. Job growth was especially strong in June for Minnesota manufacturers, suggesting their international sales are getting a boost from the weak U.S. dollar. A weak dollar makes U.S. exports cheaper for foreign buyers.

B. Sugar key to Minnesota job growth and economy Morrison 05 (Jun, E.M. writer for as innovation news, “Keeping Minnesota Sweet”, http://www.auri.org/news/ainapr05/mncommoditiesbeets.htm.) You’ve heard of “Minnesota Nice?” Well, there is also “Minnesota Sweet.” Minnesota is the nation’s leading producer of sugar beets — a sturdy root crop that pumps plenty of sweetness into Minnesota’s economy. Sugar beets generate almost $2 billion in economic activity for Minnesota, and account for some 20,000 jobs and more than $40 million in state tax revenue, according to a 2004 study by North Dakota State University Minnesota farmers — who last year planted nearly 500,000 acres of sugar beets — are working to keep the local beet industry sweet. Growers are supporting research to boost sugar beet yields and improve sugar refining. They are also backing trade agreements that cap sugar imports. And they are planning a new public relations campaign that explains sugar’s place in a healthy diet. “If there is one message we want to get out to people, it’s to understand the role sugar plays in the economy of the Upper Midwest,” says Nick Sinner, executive director of the Red River Valley Sugar Beet Growers Association, which represents 2,500 beet growers in Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. Minnesota last year produced one-third of the country’s sugar beet s: just under 10 million tons, worth more than $310 million in farm cash receipts. State growers process their sugar beets at farmer-owned cooperative refineries in Minnesota and North Dakota. The largest, 900-member American Crystal Sugar, based in Moorhead, last year manufactured three billion pounds of sugar — about 18 percent of the domestic sugar supply — and reported revenues of $1 billion. The state’s beet refineries also make high-quality livestock feed from beet pulp, most of it for export markets.

2. Reducing sugar programs tanks the Minnesota sugar industry Morrison 05 (Jun, E.M. writer for as innovation news, “Keeping Minnesota Sweet”, http://www.auri.org/news/ainapr05/mncommoditiesbeets.htm.) But the thriving Midwest sugar industry could turn sour if American trade policies change, allowing more cheap foreign sugar into the country, Sinner says. U.S. trade agreements now allow domestic producers to market about 85 percent of the sugar consumed here. The rest is imported from around the world at well below U.S. sugar prices

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

5 State Economy DAs

Minnesota DA - 1NC Shell 2/2 C. Minnesota economy is key to the Mexican economy Minnesota public radio 01 (11-14, Mary Stucky, Sept. 11 aftershock reaches Minnesota's Hispanics, http://news.minnesota.publicradio.org/features/200111/14_stuckym_latinos/.) According to Ortiz, several Hispanic immigrants in the Twin Cities have already been caught in the postSept. 11 sweep to deport undocumented residents. There are some 80,000 undocumented Hispanic workers in Minnesota, according to Ortiz. "There's less jobs here and so they go to Mexico, but there's no jobs in Mexico. They find themselves in a trap because then they can't come back. It's a little more difficult now to cross the border," says Ortiz. At the Mercado Central on Lake St. in Minneapolis, Alex Cuate, his wife and young son shop at the meat market. Cuate, an immigrant from Mexico, still has his job in a restaurant kitchen. He told Silvia Ruano of the Mexican newspaper El Norte that he expects a cutback. "Work is thinning out for everyone. People aren't coming to restaurants anymore." The money people like Alex Cuate send home is vital to the Mexican economy. In fact, it's expected to replace tourism as the nation's second largest source of foreign revenue. So, when Mexican workers lose their jobs in the Twin Cities, the effect is perhaps more dramatic south of the border. That point is not lost on Marcela Martinez, a Mexican immigrant who was shopping at the candy store in the Mercado on Lake St. She says the type of workers losing jobs here are also being laid off in Mexico.

2. Mexico key to the world economy The Dallas Morning News 95 With the exception of 1982 - when Mexico defaulted on its foreign debt and a handful of giant New York banks worried they would lose billions of dollars in loans - few people abroad ever cared about a weak peso. But now it's different, experts say. This time, the world is keeping a close eye on Mexico's unfolding financial crisis for one simple reason: Mexico is a major international player. If its economy were to collapse, it would drag down a few other countries and thousands of foreign investors. If recovery is prolonged, the world economy will feel the slowdown. "It took a peso devaluation so that other countries could notice the key role that Mexico plays in today's global economy," said economist Victor Lpez Villafane of the Monterrey Institute of Technology. "I hate to say it, but if Mexico were to default on its debts, that would trigger an international financial collapse" not seen since the Great Depression, said Dr. Lopez, who has conducted comparative studies of the Mexican economy and the economies of some Asian and Latin American countries.

3. Global economic decline will bring Armageddon. Bearden 00 (Tom, PhD Nuclear Engineering, The Tom Bearden Website, April 25, 2000, o/l: http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm, Accessed 5/11/07.] Just prior to the terrible collapse of the World economy, with the crumbling well underway and rising, it is inevitable that some of the weapons of mass destruction will be used by one or more nations on others. An interesting result then—as all the old strategic studies used to show—is that everyone will fire everything as fast as possible against their perceived enemies. The reason is simple: When the mass destruction weapons are unleashed at all, the only chance a nation has to survive is to desperately try to destroy its perceived enemies before they destroy it. So there will erupt a spasmodic unleashing of the long range missiles, nuclear arsenals, and biological warfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic collapse, poverty, death, misery, etc. a bit earlier. The ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately draw in the major nations also, and literally a hell on earth will result. In short, we will get the great Armageddon we have been fearing since the advent of the nuclear genie. Right now, my personal estimate is that we have about a 99% chance of that scenario or some modified version of it, resulting.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

6 State Economy DAs

Uniqueness - Minnesota economy up Minnesota’s economy is increasing Minnesota News Network 7-29 (“Minn. makes slight gains in spite of national economy”, http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/07/29/minn_economy/. Minnesota and neighboring states experienced slow economic growth in recent months, but at least it was growth and not a recession. Toby Madden an economist with the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank says the region's economy is holding its own. "There was a slight increase in activity in tourism, mining, commercial real-estate. However, other sectors were kind of mixed: agriculture, energy, commercial construction and manufacturing," Madden said. Madden said the housing sector is still weak. And that, along with high energy costs that cut into consumer spending, has been driving economic weakness for a couple of years.

Minnesota economy is growing despite negative forecasts Minnesota public radio 7-11 (“Minnesota had unexpected revenue bump through June”, http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/07/11/revenues_up/.) Despite bad economic news, Minnesota's tax collectors took in an extra $389 million before closing the books on the latest fiscal year. The state Department of Finance says revenues for the fiscal year that ended last month were 2.5 percent above projections. The increase came mainly from a bumper crop of personal income tax payments and taxes on corporate profits.

The manicotti economy is growing but barely Twin Cities Daily 6-14 (Lee Egerstrom, Economic reports and the economy: That sinking feeling is realhttp://www.tcdailyplanet.net/article/2008/06/13/economic-reports-and-economy-sinking-feeling-real.html. One government report this past week showed a minor upward burp in the Minnesota economy while most indices and statistical studies reveal state and national economies growing ever weaker. More such reports are scheduled for this week, beginning this morning when the government releases the alwaysconfusing data on the U.S. trade balance. Retail sales data for May will be released on Thursday, and the May compilation of the national Consumer Price Index will be issued on Friday. At times, such as this past week when reports on gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment seemed to contradict each other, it isn’t easy to interpret just what the economic reports are telling us. That is the point we will try to make today: Read the reports over time, knowing that individual statistics will bounce from month to month. “It’s probably best to monitor the reports over a two- or three-month period. Maybe six months is even better,” said Jean Kinsey, an applied economist and co-director of the Food Industry Center at the University of Minnesota.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

7 State Economy DAs

Link - Subsides general Safety net subsidies are key to the Minnesotan economy Hometownsource.com 08 (5-15,”Farm Bill clears Congress, contains Coleman provisions important to Minnesota farmers”, http://hometownsource.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5044&Itemid=29.) The existing commodity title of the farm bill has proven to be an effective safety net for farmers, and the new farm bill will not make cuts to this safety net. Sen. Coleman has consistently led the charge to ensure there would be no cuts to the program, leading letters signed by 24 of his colleagues to the President and key Senate leaders. Minnesota ranks among the top 10 states in the production of nearly every commodity that can be produced in our climate – including corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, sunflowers, dry edible beans, hay, potatoes, sugar beets, flaxseed, canola, sweet corn, green peas, wild rice, milk, beef, hogs, eggs, and turkey – and owes fully one-third of our overall state economy to agriculture. “For Minnesota farmers, the stakes are high when it comes to the commodity safety net. Prices may be high now, but every farmer knows all too well how quickly that can change. And when our farmers struggle, the ripple effects spread throughout our entire economy. We currently have an energy security problem, and without a strong safety net, we’d have a food security problem. To provide food for the nation, our farmers need a strong commodity title, which is why I worked hard to make sure this bill improves on the current safety net that has worked so well for Minnesota farmers,” Coleman said.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

8 State Economy DAs

Link – Dairy Subsidies Dairy subsidies are key to the Minnesotan economy Hometownsource.com 08 (5-15,”Farm Bill clears Congress, contains Coleman provisions important to Minnesota farmers”, http://hometownsource.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5044&Itemid=29.) A longtime defender of the Milk Income Loss Contract Program (MILC) that is vital for Minnesota’s dairy producers, Sen. Coleman fought to ensure its extension through the life of the farm bill and an increase in the payment rate back to 45 percent from the current 34 percent level. Meanwhile, the bill will adjust the price trigger up when feed prices increase. The MILC program is a critical safety net for Minnesota’s small and medium-sized dairy operations. “MILC is a critical program for Minnesota dairy farmers and is an invaluable safety net for an industry that contributes over $3 billion to the state’s economy. Increasing the MILC payment rate back to 45 percent is a huge victory for small and mid-sized dairy farms, as is allowing the trigger price to adjust up when feed prices increase,” Coleman added.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

9 State Economy DAs

Link – Sugar Subsidies Sugar subsidies are key to the Minnesota economy Coleman 08 (Norm, 5-28, state senator of Minnesota, “Other views: New farm bill sweetens sugar loan rates, extends ethanol”, http://www.in-forum.com/Opinion/articles/202611.) As a bedrock of the Red River Valley’s economic strength and a job provider to more than 40,000 people, the importance of the sugar beet industry to the state cannot be overemphasized. Every year, Minnesota’s sugar farmers put their necks on the line. They wake up with the sun and work all day to feed and now fuel the nation. Yet, despite their commitment, many farmers are deeply concerned about the future of the sugar program, particularly the safety net that allows them to operate when prices are low and times are tough. Throughout the crafting of the new farm bill, I worked closely with my colleagues in Congress from both Sugar sides of the political aisle – and farmers from both sides of the Red River – to ensure the viability of the current sugar program. The program, which operates at no net cost to the government, was not only maintained, but strengthened. The bill increases the loan rate for sugar beets for the first time in 15 years, by over 1 cent per pound. In addition to preserving the sugar program, we were successful in creating a sugar-to-ethanol program to bring sugar into the booming renewable fuels market and guard against excess imports. While this proposal was once met with indignation when I first offered it a few years ago, I firmly believed it only made sense to take excess sugar from trade agreements and use it to help address our foreign oil dependence. We only need to look to how Brazil achieved oil independence, largely through production of sugar ethanol, to see that the technology is not out of reach, but at our fingertips. Sugar farmers have shared that same vision, and as this sugar ethanol program is implemented, we will be able to quickly add more diversity to our ethanol feedstocks. Meanwhile, the program actually saves taxpayer dollars by using surplus sugar that would instead have ended up costing the federal government more money. It’s truly a win-win. With Congress’s recent override of the president’s veto, we have finally succeeded in passing these important victories into law. The new bill gives Minnesota’s sugar farmers the opportunity to continue contributing billions of dollars and tens of thousands of jobs to the state’s economy, and I was proud to be a part of the bipartisan cooperation that has allowed the farm bill to progress from the first Agriculture Committee hearing all the way to final passage. For years I have driven across Minnesota’s countryside, listening to the concerns of our farmers and rural communities. I brought their message to the Senate Agriculture Committee, and with a bipartisan cast of legislators who truly care about agriculture, led by Congressman Collin Peterson in the House, together we have crafted a bill that provides the safety net our farmers need. The bill represents a major win for Minnesota sugar beet growers and farmers as a whole. The future of the sugar industry, our state’s economy, and the Red River Valley will greatly benefit from this farm bill.

Freeing the market tanks Minnesota sugar production MPR 07 (11-22, “Free trade pressures the sugar industry”, http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2007/11/20/farmbillsugar/.) Peterson sees politics as a greater threat to sugar beet growers in Minnesota and North Dakota. He says if a new farm bill isn't passed, the president could force cuts in U.S. sugar production. The NAFTA agreement that allows Mexican sugar into the U.S., also gives the president authority to cut domestic production. Peterson says it's unclear if sugar beets or sugar cane would take the biggest hit. "It starts a fight within sugar. It starts a fight between cane and beets and that's what they want," says Peterson. "They want sugar divided. If they get sugar divided, then they can take them apart."

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

10 State Economy DAs

Link – Sugar Subsidies Sugar subsidies are vital to the economy Hometownsource.com 08 (5-15,”Farm Bill clears Congress, contains Coleman provisions important to Minnesota farmers”, http://hometownsource.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=5044&Itemid=29.) As a longtime champion of the sugar program, which operates at no net cost to the federal government, Coleman worked hard to ensure the program’s extension. Additionally, Minnesota’s sugar beet farmers will receive a 1.1 cent increase in the sugar loan rate – the first of its kind in over 15 years. The measure also includes Sen. Coleman’s long-sought sugar ethanol program, which he pursued in order to take excess sugar from trade agreements and use it to help address our foreign oil dependence. Once implemented, the plan will help America move quickly to diversify our ethanol feedstocks. The sugar beet industry provides over $2 billion per year to Minnesota’s economy and sustains nearly 40,000 jobs. “To ensure that Minnesota’s sugar beet growers can continue to deliver a stable supply of high quality sugar to the market at no net cost to the federal government, it is imperative this bill becomes law. From Roseau to Renville, the sugar program has enabled Minnesota’s over two billion dollar a year sugar industry to thrive and support thousands of jobs, regardless of poor markets and severe weather,” Coleman said. “America must diversify the feedstocks used to produce ethanol in order to build a sustainable and secure renewable fuels industry that can reduce our dependence on foreign oil -- and sugar ethanol has the potential to play an important role in that effort. Meanwhile, this sugar ethanol program will address the significant challenges presented by the excess sugar coming in from NAFTA, and it does so in a way that saves millions of dollars.”

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

11 State Economy DAs

Internal link - Agriculture Key to Minnesota Agriculture is key to the Minnesota economy Wertish 08 (Dave, 5-30, a Farm Business Management instructor at South Central College ,“Agriculture holds strong economic importance”, http://www.faribault.com/news.php?viewStory=35255.) The role of farming and agriculture has taken on a new awareness recently with the increased cost of food and fuel to the consumer. Agriculture and farming take on an impressive role when you look at the local and state economics Agriculture is the second-largest industry in Minnesota’s economy behind the manufacturing sector. It has a long history of serving as a cornerstone for the state’s economy. It supports many other industries such as manufacturing, transportation, wholesale and retail trade, services, construction, banking, insurance and real estate Agriculture, combined with the food industry, is the second-largest employer in Minnesota accounting for 15 percent of all total jobs. In rural Minnesota of which Rice County is a part, agricultural employment supplies 24 percent of all jobs. More than 80 percent of these agricultural jobs are off-farm, in processing, distribution, supply and service sectors. Agriculture has played an integral role in our local economy. An economy is a network of individual business and households. Because of local linkages between these business and households, what happens in one sector impacts the entire economy. We are experiencing those linkages currently with the housing values declining and mortgage foreclosures looming. Agriculture has provided jobs as it purchases inputs and services locally in a multiplier effect. Each production agriculture job supports an additional 1.5 jobs in other economic sectors. This multiplier effect of Minnesota agricultural production and processing supports over 367,000 jobs and generates $55 billion of economic activity for the state. Agricultural and food exports account for more than 20% of Minnesota’s total exports from all industries

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

12 State Economy DAs

Brink - Minnesota economy The Minnesota economy is on the brink of a recession Gottwalt 08 (Steve, 3-19, Minnessota state representive, “GOTTWALT: TAX BILL IS “JOBS KILLER” FOR MINNESOTA”, http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/members/pressreleasels85.asp?district=15A&pressid=2507&party=2.) “The elimination of JOBZ would mean fewer jobs, and lost opportunity for our economy,” Gottwalt said. “It would have a particularly negative impact on the St. Cloud area where extension of JOBZ could help us attract hundreds of new, good paying jobs. It appears the DFL would rather have more people filing for unemployment benefits and welfare than working to make a living for themselves and their families.” Gottwalt also noted that “eliminating tax credits hurts emerging industries like biosciences that hold so much promise for the St. Cloud area and Minnesota.” The St. Cloud area recently received state designation as a Bioscience Zone. Removing tax incentives amounts to tax increases for Minnesota businesses. “At a time when our economy is on the brink of recession, such tax increases are bound to kill jobs and deepen our economic downturn,” added Gottwalt..

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

13 State Economy DAs

Impact - Mexico – Economy High Mexico economy is growing Dickerson 8 (Marla, Las Angeles Times [http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fi-mexgdp232008may23,1,6979146.story] Mexico prospering despite U.S. slowdown/ May 23, 2008) A sizzling stock market. A strengthening peso. Good economic growth. Someone forgot to tell Mexico that the U.S. has been flirting with recession. Mexico's gross domestic product expanded at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the first three months of the year compared with a year earlier, according to government figures released Thursday. It's a respectable performance that highlights the nation's surprising resilience in the face of a U.S. slowdown.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

14 State Economy DAs

Impact - Mexico - Key to global economy Mexico is key to the world’s economy Hansen 4 (Fay, Workforce Management contributing editor http://www.workforce.com /section/06/feature/24/78/99/index.html) Mexico’s economy and business environment remain closely tied to the United States, but signs are emerging that Mexico is succeeding in its attempt to break away from the U.S. business cycle and establish itself as a major trading nation in the world market. Within the next decade, Mexico may be able to build significant trade and investment relationships with European and Asian nations and with other Latin countries. For the immediate future, however, it is largely dependent on the United States as its largest trading partner and primary source of foreign investment

Mexico affects the global economy Hansen 4 (Fay, Workforce Management contributing editor http://www.workforce.com /section/06/feature/24/78/99/index.html) Although trade with the U.S. is critical, Mexico has moved rapidly in recent years to expand its role in the world economy. Greater global integration offers Mexico the opportunity to accelerate economic growth and develop trade beyond NAFTA and the cyclical movements of the U.S. economy. “Mexico is intricately tied into the U.S., but it is also a key player in Latin America,” says Luis E. Ramirez Thomas, a principal in the Phoenix-based law firm of Lewis and Roca, LLP and part of the firm’s international business unit for Mexico and Latin America. Within Latin America, Mexico’s economy is second in size only to the Brazilian economy, but Mexico’s foreign trade is greater than the combined trade of Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Colombia, he notes. Since the signing of NAFTA a decade ago, Mexico has pursued free trade agreements (FTAs) around the world, resulting in FTAs with 41 nations, including the 25 members of the European Union, and partial scope agreements with three others. “The most notable agreements have facilitated trade with Europe and Central America where future trade prospects are the brightest,” says Pisani. “Mexico is also working on increased trade linkages with Asia bi-laterally and through APEC, with a particular focus on Japan. Nonetheless, Mexico’s trade fortunes lie with the U.S., and with these other trade partners it may only hope to help smooth out the North American business cycle, of which Mexico is part and parcel.” After the recent signing of a FTA with Japan, the Mexican economic minister announced that Mexico would temporarily halt negotiations for new free trade agreements. “Mexico has enough free trade agreements for the development stage that the country is confronting at this moment,” notes Joey Bremauntz, Vice President of Sherwood Partners, a business continuity advisory firm that assists both U.S. and Mexican companies. Mexico’s current goal, he believes, is to increase commerce with the existing FTA countries and meet the objectives of each agreement. “Mexico is an example of the success that a country can experience if it adopts a free trade agreements strategy,” he says. “It has also proven that Mexican companies have the capability to enter into first-world country markets because of the quality and competitive price of their products.” Bremauntz also notes that Mexico has assumed a leadership role as an intermediary in multilateral negotiations. Mexico hosted World Trade Organization meetings in 2003 and organized a summit of the Asia-Pacific Cooperation Forum in 2002. “All these efforts have meant a very successful decade for Mexico,” he says. “That is why it is expected that the government will continue making more agreements when it is convenient for the country. In the next few years, we may see Mexico initiate

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

15 State Economy DAs

Impact – US Economy Scenario - Sugar Link and internal link Minnesota is critical to the US sugar economy removing sugar subsidies jacks the industry Washington post 04 (9-20, “Sugar Beet Area Not Sweet on Pact”, http://www.citizenstrade.org/pdf/washpost_sugarbeets_09202004.pdf.) When Germans and Scandinavians settled these parts in the 19th and 20th centuries, they found nothing but a grassy prairie. For years, wheat was the main cash crop. But in the 1950s, sugar beets were introduced in the fertile, gently tilting plain on both sides of the north-flowing Red River boundary between Minnesota and North Dakota. Rainfall, good soil and cold winters that allowed farmers to store beets on their farms without spoilage gave growers a competitive edge. Although beets are also grown in western and other Midwestern states, the Red River Valley accounts for more than 40 percent of U.S. beet sugar production and onefifth of all U.S. sugar output. The area's $1 billion-a-year sugar crop, produced on a half-million acres by more than 1,000 farmers, supports about 32,000 jobs year- round in processing and related services, according to the industry. As big a business as it is, it is still family farming. Hasbargen, two sons and a brother handle 2 1/2 square miles of beets with the help of only a few hired hands. During harvest, the Hasbargens all put in 12-hour shifts day and night on the huge machines that "top" (cut off the bushy leaves of the plants) and then dig up the beets. Underpinning the industry, however, is an elaborate federal program that protects U.S. growers from a world market glutted with cheap sugar. Quotas limit sugar imports to the United States to about 1.2 million tons a year, and the government sets the annual level of production and enforces it through acreage allotments that cooperatives hand down to individual farmers.

Key to the national economy Jones 03 (Calvin, CEO – Wyoming Sugar Company, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, “Domestic Natural Gas Supply Shortage”, 6-19, Lexis, Accessed: 6/8/2005) I am here representing the Beet Sugar Industry as part of a much larger "Sweetener Industry" that consists of sugarbeet, sugar cane and corn. This industry annually creates $21.1 billion of economic activity in 42 states. The industry provides American consumers with high quality sweeteners for various applications. American consumers pay 22 percent less than their counterparts in other developed countries. The beet sugar segment of this industry plants over 1,400,000 acres of sugar beets in 12 states that are processed by 27 beet sugar factories. The industry creates 88,200 full time direct and indirect jobs for people across the nation. Wyoming is one of the 12 sugar beet producing states where over 400 growers produce about 56,000 acres of sugar beets. Those beets are then processed by three factories operated by two companies, Wyoming Sugar Company, LLC and Western Sugar Cooperative. The economic activity generated in the state of Wyoming each year by the Sweetener Industry is $159,600,000.1 The US Sweetener Industry is integral to the national economy, as a well as each state where sweeteners are grown and processed. Current United States sugar policy allows efficient U.S. beet, cane and corn growers and processors to compete against unfair foreign subsidies and trade practices. The program provides reliable supplies of sugar at fair and stable prices.

Minnesota is nations largest sugar producer Star Tribune 05 (“Sugar Beet Growers Fight For Livelihood”, http://www.crystalsugar.com/media/news.archives/trib.asp.) For Hasbargen and more than 40 other Red River farmers who have come to Washington in the last two weeks, it's about the survival of an industry that says it generates more than 30,000 jobs and $1.7 billion in economic activity in Minnesota. Their argument is quite direct: CAFTA will open our nation's borders to more imported sugar and put a teetering U.S. sugar industry out of business. Minnesota is the nation's largest sugar producing region, putting it at the center of the debate over sugar imports, which could increase by nearly 50 percent under the treaty.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

**Louisiana**

16 State Economy DAs

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

17 State Economy DAs

Louisiana DA - 1NC shell 1/2 A. Louisiana economy growing Sun Herald.com 08 (6-8, “Louisiana economy outpacing nation's”, http://www.sunherald.com/218/vprint/story/611432.html.) Louisiana is one of 20 states with an economy growing faster than the nation as a whole. The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis also says the state's economy became one of 14 states growing faster in 2007 than in 2006. The agency examined the states' real gross domestic products. That's the inflationadjusted value of all goods and services produced. Of a dozen southeastern states, Louisiana's growth rate placed second to Georgia. The southwestern states including Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico and Arizona had the largest regional growth rate.

B. Sugar is key to keeping Louisiana competitive Gravois 5 (Kenneth PHD at the Department of Agriculture at Louisiana State University May 31 Louisiana’s Sugarcane Industry, http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/ communications/publications/agmag/Archive/2001/Fall/Louisianas+Sugarcane+Industry.htm)

Sugarcane has been an integral part of the South Louisiana economy and culture for more than 200 years. When the Jesuit priests first brought sugarcane to Louisiana in 1751, little did they know that they were laying the foundation for an industry that now contributes $2 billion to the Louisiana economy. In the last century, research advances in both production and processing have kept Louisiana’s sugar industry competitive. In these recent times of stagnant and decreasing sugar prices, increased production efficiencies and new processing technologies have helped the Louisiana sugar industry remain profitable. The focus of LSU AgCenter sugarcane research is to help maintain a competitive and viable sugar industry in Louisiana.

2. Rolling back subsidies tanks Louisiana sugar industry Salassi 08 (Michael E., Spring, “Economics of sugarcane production: What does it take for this industry to survive?”, Dept. of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/communications/publications/agmag/Archive/2008/Spring/Economics+of+sugar cane+production+What+does+it+take+for+this+industry+to+survive.htm) Sugar is one of the many commodities whose domestic market price is supported by provisions of the farm bill. The basic goals of U.S. agricultural policy, as stipulated in farm bills enacted by Congress, have been to stabilize and support income to farmers across the country. A stable market price sufficient to cover total production costs is critical in the production of any commodity, and sugar is no exception. Although sugar is a farmprogram commodity like corn, soybeans, rice and cotton, its price support program is different from the other commodities. Sugar producers receive no government payments. The market price sugar producers receive is supported by indirectly restricting domestic production through marketing allotments, which limit sales of domestically produced sugar from either sugarcane or sugar beets. Unlike most other program commodities, sugar is import-sensitive, meaning that the United States consumes more sugar than it produces. Imports of foreign sugar are limited by a tariff rate quota in an effort to support market prices for domestic producers. Domestic sugar production in Louisiana and other sugar- producing states depends on the continuation of a farm program that limits the possibility of excess foreign imports driving down the domestic sugar price to the detriment of domestic growers.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

18 State Economy DAs

Louisiana DA - 1NC shell 2/2 C. Louisiana growth key to the global economy Alford 07 (10-30, “Louisiana touts itself as America’s main oil artery”, http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20071031/NEWS0101/710310302.) "Based on its energy-producing value to the nation, acre for acre, Louisiana is the most valuable real estate in the nation," he said. "Two of the four strategic petroleum-reserve storage facilities are also in Louisiana. Louisiana is a crucial part of America’s Energy Coast, and we need help." Val Marmillion, a Houma native and director of the America’s Wetland Foundation, said special commissions have been formed to get the facts that Melancon knows so well into the hands of industry leaders, conservationists and lawmakers. Together, the Honorary Leadership Council and the Industry Council will promote sustainability policies for the region and build support for restoring coastal landscapes. It’s just another layer to a complicated marketing effort, but it’s different than Louisiana’s sole attempts at promoting solutions because it’s geographically inclusive. In concert with Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi and Alabama represent the seventh-largest economic engine in the world.

2. Global economic decline will bring Armageddon. Bearden 00 (Tom, PhD Nuclear Engineering, The Tom Bearden Website, April 25, 2000, o/l: http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm, Accessed 5/11/07.] Just prior to the terrible collapse of the World economy, with the crumbling well underway and rising, it is inevitable that some of the weapons of mass destruction will be used by one or more nations on others. An interesting result then—as all the old strategic studies used to show—is that everyone will fire everything as fast as possible against their perceived enemies. The reason is simple: When the mass destruction weapons are unleashed at all, the only chance a nation has to survive is to desperately try to destroy its perceived enemies before they destroy it. So there will erupt a spasmodic unleashing of the long range missiles, nuclear arsenals, and biological warfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic collapse, poverty, death, misery, etc. a bit earlier. The ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately draw in the major nations also, and literally a hell on earth will result. In short, we will get the great Armageddon we have been fearing since the advent of the nuclear genie. Right now, my personal estimate is that we have about a 99% chance of that scenario or some modified version of it, resulting.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

19 State Economy DAs

Louisiana – Uniqueness - Economy up Louisiana economy up The Bond Buyer.7-3 (Moody's, Following Standard & Poor's, Raises Louisiana's GO Rating;. SECTION: Pg. 23 Vol. 365 No. 32915 ISSN: 0732-0469. LENGTH: 297 words. Byline: JIM WATTS The Moody's analysts cited the state's steady recovery from the devastation caused by hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, as well as growth in the state economy and finances. Louisiana posted a $1 billion cash surplus for the end of fiscal 2007, and expects another large surplus in fiscal 2008. Unreserved, undesignated general fund balance and rainy-day funds have grown to almost 14% of operating revenues.The economic boost provided by federal government recovery aid has been significant and should continue, the ratings report said. The federal government has allocated some $25 billion for disaster recovery in Louisiana, but only $10 billion has been spent. Of the unspent funds, $4 billion is earmarked for housing, with almost $10 billion designed for infrastructure projects. "The remaining $15 billion of allocated but unspent federal disaster recovery funds ensure a steady source of capital to sustain the state's rebounding economy," said analysts Emily Raimes and Maria Coritsidis.

Louisiana’s economy is on the rise post Katrina Watts 4/15( The Bond Buyer. April 15, 2008. LOUISIANA: Katrina Surplus Helps to Lay New Groundwork. BYLINE: Watts, Jim SECTION: Pg. 21A Vol. 364 No. 32859 ISSN: 0732-0469) With state coffers overflowing due to hurricane recovery efforts, Louisiana is taking the opportunity to build a firmer economic foundation. In March the Legislature met in special session to spend a $1.1 billion surplus from fiscal 2007, with most of it going to roads, ports, and facility maintenance at state colleges and universities State economists predict a $981 million surplus from fiscal 2008 when it ends in June. Almost $800 million of the fiscal 2008 surplus is included in Gov. Bobby Jindal's fiscal 2009 budget for health care programs, student scholarships, and other one-time expenditures. The official estimate for general fund revenues in fiscal 2009 by the state Revenue Estimating Conference is $9.3 billion However, projections are for a $1.2 billion shortfall in fiscal 2010, with general fund revenues slipping to $8.8 billion as the state's rapid economic growth begins to slow down. The shortfall then escalates steadily to $1.9 billion in fiscal 2013 with general fund revenues of $8.9 billion Louisiana's general obligation debt is rated A2 by Moody's Investors Service, and A by Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings The state said it would begin a program in 2008 to issue $300 million of GOs a year for state infrastructure projects. In addition to the GOs, about $2 billion of gasoline and fuel-tax revenue bonds will be issued through 2012 to fund road, bridge, and airport projects included in the Transportation Infrastructure Model For Economic Development program Treasurer John N. Kennedy said the overwhelming legislative support for Jindal's economic development package at the special session in March bodes well for the state's economic future. In addition to the infrastructure funding, lawmakers also approved a number of business and personal tax cuts. "I think the governor's economic development package is sound. I've seen projections that every $1 billion spent on transportation infrastructure generates 40,000 to 50,000 new permanent jobs," Kennedy said. "We're putting money into our state infrastructure, and it really needs it. We have a backlog of $14 billion of road projects that we need to work on." He said Louisiana's robust economy since the hurricanes of 2005 isa result of the stimulation provided by billions of dollars in federal aid and insurance payments, and by the surge in sales and income tax revenue generated from the efforts to rebuild the devastated region "It's a function of the recovery, and the problem with the type of recovery that follows natural disasters is that it does not last," the treasurer said. "Rebuilding comes to an end within five years. I hope I'm wrong, but I feel this won't be permanent and the Louisiana economy will eventually return to normal." Kennedy said the local economy should do well in 2008, regardless of what happens nationally.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

20 State Economy DAs

Louisiana – Uniqueness - Economy up Louisianan economy strong – private assistance. Watts 4/15 ( The Bond Buyer. April 15, 2008. LOUISIANA: Katrina Surplus Helps to Lay New Groundwork. BYLINE: Watts, Jim SECTION: Pg. 21A Vol. 364 No. 32859 ISSN: 0732-0469) "From an economic perspective, Louisiana has weathered the storms of 2005 relatively well given the generous assistance and investment received from public and private resources," she said. "Though recovery in New Orleans is slower than desired, it has become clear that a demographic shift is occurring in our state as areas surrounding New Orleans continue to sustain the exponential growth experienced just after the storms." Louisiana's economy is strong, she said, although some weak spots still exist "Certain areas within our economy such as communication, health care, transportation, and coastal restoration have had a more difficultpath to recovery," Davis said. The state's strong economy will buffer Louisiana from national economic woes, according to Davis. "Our state is still in recovery mode from the storms of 2005, and the elevated economic activity due to rebuilding and demographic shifts continues to help bolster revenue," she said.

Recession will not impact Louisiana Watts 4/15 ( The Bond Buyer. April 15, 2008. LOUISIANA: Katrina Surplus Helps to Lay New Groundwork. BYLINE: Watts, Jim SECTION: Pg. 21A Vol. 364 No. 32859 ISSN: 0732-0469) "In addition, we are in the fifth year of increasingly high oil prices, a run-up which is mainly due to increased demand from developing nations that are not expected to be strongly impacted by the recession," Davis said. "With most oil price forecasts showing strong prices over the next few years and a continued long-term commitment from federal and private sources to assist in rebuilding, it is expected that Louisiana's revenue situation will not be negatively impacted by the recession." Businesses in Louisiana will benefit from the ethics legislation enacted at the first special session in 2008 and the tax cuts adopted at the second one, said Stephen Moret, secretary of the Louisiana Economic Development Department.

Louisiana economy strong – new ethics reforms and trade access. Watts 4/15 ( The Bond Buyer. April 15, 2008. LOUISIANA: Katrina Surplus Helps to Lay New Groundwork. BYLINE: Watts, Jim SECTION: Pg. 21A Vol. 364 No. 32859 ISSN: 0732-0469) "We recently adopted nation-leading governmental ethics reforms, including measures to increase transparency and accountability, require detailed financial disclosure for the governor, legislators, and top government appointees, and eliminate conflicts of interest," he said. "Gov. Jindal's first special session on ethics reform resulted in laws that are transforming Louisiana from a low-performing state intoa national leader in governmental ethics laws and enforcement," Moret said. "Already the Center for Public Integrity has noted that Louisiana's new disclosure laws are the best in the U.S. "Louisiana has many current advantages in economic development," he continued. "Our robust transportation assets include the largest port system in the world for foreign trade with waterborne access via the Mississippi to 31 states and two Canadian provinces, six interstate highways, and six Class One railroads. We have one of the most productive manufacturing workforces in the U.S., aggressive state and federal incentives for economic development, a variety of national-caliber higher education assets, and of course our unique food and culture. Moret said the ethics and taxation changes pushed by the governor and enacted by the Legislature will "position Louisiana as the next great American state for business investment, economic opportunity, and quality of life." "Over the next few years, we expect Louisiana to develop a reputation as one of the best-run, most accountable, and most transparent states in the country. And we expect Louisiana to become known as an exciting new growth center in the U.S., a place with increased economicopportunities, significant job growth, and massive amounts of new capital investment."

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

21 State Economy DAs

Link - Cotton Cotton subsidies are key to the Louisiana economy Webster 05 (Riichard, 3-28, International author contributor to New Orleans CityBusiness, La. cotton and rice farmers speak out against Bush's proposed farm, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20050328/ai_n13479714.) Louisiana cotton and rice farmers say President Bush's proposed farm subsidy cuts could drive them into bankruptcy and their neighbors, too. In his proposed fiscal year 2006 budget, the president included a 5 percent cut in federal payments to farmers, projected to save $587 million in 2006 and $5.7 billion over the next 10 years. The proposed cuts mean payments on rice and cotton in 2006 would decrease from $3.2 billion to $3 billion In 2003, Louisiana received nearly $442 million in subsidies, ranking it No. 17 in the nation for farm payments. If Bush's cuts were in place, the state would have received $420 million. Jackie Loewer, a third-generation rice farmer in Acadia Parish, said the cuts will damage the ability of farmers to survive and hurt ancillary businesses such as equipment and auto dealers, fertilizer suppliers, chemical manufacturers, rice dryers and grain processors. Our communities, these small rural communities, depend on farms and the infrastructure built around them, Loewer said. If we cut too hard and farmers have to back way off on production, the infrastructure won't have enough volume to support itself and it will dry up.

Cotton has huge influce over the Louisiana economy Webster 05 (Riichard, 3-28, International aouthor contriubutor to New Orleans CityBusiness, La. cotton and rice farmers speak out against Bush's proposed farm, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20050328/ai_n13479714.) Steve Connelly, assistant deputy administrator for farm programs at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's farm services agency, said the proposed cuts are necessary to lower the deficit. The belief within the Bush administration is that the long-term effects of the deficit on interest rates could be greater than those payment reductions, he said. Cotton crops had a $342 million impact on the Louisiana economy in 2005 while rice topped $197 million, according to the Louisiana State University Agricultural Center.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

22 State Economy DAs

Link - Rice subsidies Rice subsidies are key to the Louisiana economy Webster 05 (Riichard, 3-28, International author contributor to New Orleans CityBusiness, La. cotton and rice farmers speak out against Bush's proposed farm, http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4200/is_20050328/ai_n13479714.) Louisiana cotton and rice farmers say President Bush's proposed farm subsidy cuts could drive them into bankruptcy and their neighbors, too. In his proposed fiscal year 2006 budget, the president included a 5 percent cut in federal payments to farmers, projected to save $587 million in 2006 and $5.7 billion over the next 10 years. The proposed cuts mean payments on rice and cotton in 2006 would decrease from $3.2 billion to $3 billion In 2003, Louisiana received nearly $442 million in subsidies, ranking it No. 17 in the nation for farm payments. If Bush's cuts were in place, the state would have received $420 million. Jackie Loewer, a third-generation rice farmer in Acadia Parish, said the cuts will damage the ability of farmers to survive and hurt ancillary businesses such as equipment and auto dealers, fertilizer suppliers, chemical manufacturers, rice dryers and grain processors. Our communities, these small rural communities, depend on farms and the infrastructure built around them, Loewer said. If we cut too hard and farmers have to back way off on production, the infrastructure won't have enough volume to support itself and it will dry up.

Rice exports are vital to the Louisiana economy Odom 01 (Bob, 7-6, Louisiana Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry “DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY”, http://doa.louisiana.gov/osr/emr/0706EMR001.htm. Maintaining markets for Louisiana rice is vital to both Louisiana's rice industry and to Louisiana's overall economy. The embargo by the European Union and the treat of an embargo by other rice importing countries created an imminent peril to the welfare of the citizens of Louisiana and to Louisiana's economy. The Seed Commission has determined that limiting the sale, distribution and planting of seeds of Cheniere rice and other varieties of rice that test positive for LL traits will best serve Louisiana’s rice industry. These rules are enabled by R.S. 3:1433.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

23 State Economy DAs

Link - Sugar Increased sugar imports crushes Louisiana’s sugar industry Salassi, Kennedy, and Breaux 03 (Michael E professor of Production Economics and Farm Management Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, P. Lynn william H. Alexander Endowed Professor of International Trade and Agribusiness Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, Janis B william H. Alexander Endowed Professor of International Trade and Agribusiness Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Louisiana State University Agricultural Center, October, “Impact of Potential Bilateral Free Trade Agreements on Projected Raw Sugar Prices and the Economic Viability of the Louisiana Sugar Industry”, http://www.agecon.lsu.edu/Research_Publications/Electronically_Available_Pubs/SP2003-07.pdf.) The oversupply situation of 1999 illustrates the price sensitive nature of the U.S. sugar market. Over supply, from either domestic production or increased imports, can significantly reduce market prices to sugar growers. In the 2002 farm bill, marketing allotments were reinstituted which serve to restrict or limit domestic sugar production, thereby preventing excess production. However, ongoing international trade negotiations could result in significant increases in the amount of foreign sugar being exported into the U.S. Even with domestic marketing allotments in place, the magnitude of potentially higher sugar imports could have significant consequences for the U.S. sugar industry, including sugarcane production in Louisiana. Figure 2 shows the relationship between the U.S. raw sugar price, the U.S. refined beet sugar price, and the world raw sugar price from 1995 through 2003. Refined beet sugar prices have fluctuated around an approximate 25 cent per pound average. Raw cane sugar prices have generally remained in the 21 to 22 cent per pound range, except for the decline in 1999. World raw sugar prices have generally declined over the period, from about 15 cents per pound in 1995 to less than 10 cents per pound today. One of the direct results of a potential expansion of sugar imports into the domestic U.S. market, resulting from implementation of potential free trade agreements, would be a decline in the average domestic sugar market price level. The magnitude of such price declines would depend upon the levels of increased imports allowed into the country. In 2003, estimated breakeven raw sugar prices for sugarcane growers in Louisiana was 20.7 cents per pound for harvest of sugarcane through second stubble and 19.8 cents per pound for harvest of sugarcane through third stubble (Breaux and Salassi, 2003). These estimates represent the market price of raw sugar required for a sugarcane grower in Louisiana to be able to cover all production costs at average yields. Reduction of raw sugar market prices below these breakeven price levels, resulting from potential free trade agreements involving expanded importation of sugar into the domestic market, would force many sugarcane growers, and possibly some raw sugar mills in the state, out of business, as income from sugar production would not be sufficient to cover total production and processing costs.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

24 State Economy DAs

Link - Sugar Farm bill provides critical sugar price supports Key to the Louisiana economy Melancon 08 (Charlie, Lous 5-21, “Rep. Melancon Votes to Override Farm Bill Veto”, http://www.melancon.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=895&Itemid=1.) “Small farmers need the price stability and predictability the Farm Bill provides,” said. Rep. Melancon. “Without a Farm Bill, farmers cannot secure the loans they need to plan for the coming season. The President’s veto today hurts the lifeblood of the Louisiana economy, especially in the Third Congressional District where growing sugar has been a way of life for centuries. While I am very disappointed in the President’s veto, I am proud the House stood with farmers today and voted with overwhelming bipartisan support to make the Farm Bill law.” At the urging of Melancon and other advocates for sugar producers, Congress improved the sugar policy in several areas. The bill includes the first sugar loan rate increase in nearly 25 years. The sugar loan rate has held steady at 18-cents per raw cane pound since 1985. This measure will gradually increase that rate to 18.75 cents in 2011. The Farm Bill also creates a sucrose-ethanol program to move surplus sugar into the ethanol sector. The program would be used only when imports oversupply the domestic market and cannot be used to clear domestic blocked stocks. Since Mexicanproduced sugar has been able to enter the U.S. tariff free since Jan 1, 2008, this measure is particularly important to domestic sugar producers. More than 27,000 Louisianans are employed by the state’s $1.7 billion sugar industry. Stable domestic sugar production and prices are necessary for our nation’s food security since sugar-containing products account for more than 70 percent of all food manufacturing in the U.S. The U.S. sugar policy has operated at no cost to taxpayers, which makes the program particularly appealing given current budget deficits.

Importated sugar tanks Louisianans economy Ussugar.com 03 (10-9, “Trade Talks in Works Could Devastate U.S. Sugar” Industryhttp://www.ussugar.com/press_room/press%20kits/sugar%20trade/cafta.pdf.) Rochelle said if, based on the study, lenders expect that “in the near future the sugar industry would be over run by foreign subsidized sugar, the premature dismantling of the sugar program, and the consequence of sugar prices below production for any country, it would put the state of Louisiana and its delicate economic base in great jeopardy.” Sugarcane is by far Louisiana’s most valuable crop.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

25 State Economy DAs

Sugar key Louisiana Economy Sugar is Key to Louisiana’s economy American Sugar Cane League 8, (The Louisiana Sugar Industry, http://72.14.205.104/search?q=cache:BEf3mVokrvwJ:www.amscl.org/SugarIndustry.pdf+Sugar+Industry+%2B+Louisiana&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd= 4&gl=us)

Sugarcane is being produced on nearly 450,000 acres of land in 23 Louisiana Parishes. Production should exceed fourteen million tons of cane with an economic impact of $1.7 billion to the cane growers and raw sugar factories of the state. Louisiana produces about 20% of the sugar grown in the United States (beets and cane). Approximately 27,000 employees are involved in this production and processing of sugar in Louisiana alone

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

26 State Economy DAs

Agriculture K to Louisiana Economy Agriculture is critical to Louisiana economy Theriot 99 (Jack, 6-19, the secretary treasurer Louisiana Farm Bureau Federation, WTO Listening Session, http://www.fas.usda.gov/itp/wto/tennessee/theriot.html) In 1998 the total volume of agriculture commodities produced in the state were estimated at $9.6 billion and agriculture is the economic engine of our state. This snapshot of Louisiana agriculture and dits diversity is not unique to our state, and if you look at a composite of other states agricultural industries, you will find a similar picture. The significance of these numbers are that when we consider our state in total, 704 million dollars in exports must be weighed against agricultural enterprises that supply domestic markets. It is important to note that these markets in aggregate exceed the value of export crops in our state. So while our organization strongly supports agreements that would provide greater market access for our state's agricultural producers of export commodities, we must also consider framing our trade objectives so that as we pursue securing greater market access for export commodities, we also recognize that not all agriculture commodities are export bound.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

27 State Economy DAs

Brink - Louisiana sugar industry The Louisiana sugar industry is on a precipice increasing imports will dictate the inevitable collapse of the economy Salassi 08 (Michael E., Spring, “Economics of sugarcane production: What does it take for this industry to survive?”, Dept. of Agricultural Economics & Agribusiness Louisiana State University http://www.lsuagcenter.com/en/communications/publications/agmag/Archive/2008/Spring/Economics+of+sugar cane+production+What+does+it+take+for+this+industry+to+survive.htm) The Louisiana sugar industry currently faces critical economic challenges from several sources, all of which will have a significant impact on what this industry will look like over the next decade. Sugarcane production costs per acre have risen dramatically over the past several years. Raw sugar market prices have historically varied within a rather narrow range and have actually trended downward slightly since 1990 (Figure 1). Although increases in average sugarcane yield have generally kept pace with rising production costs over the years, the substantial rise in diesel fuel and nitrogen fertilizer costs since 2005 have squeezed much of the profit out of sugarcane production. Total estimated sugarcane production costs for Louisiana have risen from $447 per acre in 2005 to a projected $615 per acre in 2008 (Figure 2). Increased energy prices have caused fuel costs to rise from 10 percent to 18.1 percent of total sugarcane production costs and fertilizer costs to rise from 13.3 percent to 18.3 percent of total sugarcane production costs. A sugar yield of 7,000 pounds per harvested acre would require a raw sugar price of 17.3 cents per pound to cover variable production costs and a price of 22.6 cents per pound to cover total estimated production costs in 2008 (Table 1). In addition, international trade agreements, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the recently approved Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-CAFTA), have opened up the domestic U.S. sugar market to potentially more foreign imports, which would reduce market prices for sugar producers in Louisiana as well as across the country. Under the current sugar farm program, the USDA supports U.S. sugar market prices by using allotments to restrict marketing of domestically produced sugar. Increased foreign imports of sugar could cause the USDA to restrict domestic production to maintain the market price. Limiting production increases fixed costs per unit of output for both sugarcane farms and raw-sugar factories.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

28 State Economy DAs

Louisiana Key to Economy Louisiana is key to the regional economy PR Newswire 07 (5-14, “Gov. Blanco: Louisiana Has Established a Stronghold In the Global Economy”, http://www.dra.gov/media/article_detail.aspx?articleID=1074.) "To be selected as one of two finalists from among 20 states and 6 sites for a project of this magnitude is a tremendous honor and proves that Louisiana is moving forward with extraordinary momentum. Our Louisiana team worked diligently to make it to this point in the process, and we will remain focused on fostering relationships with the many other companies interested in this location and countless others that recognize the value in doing business across Louisiana. Our success with this project demonstrates Louisiana has established a stronghold in the global economy and can successfully compete for worldclass projects." Gov. Blanco was pleased to receive the following statement from Bob Soulliere, President and CEO of ThyssenKrupp Steel and Stainless USA: "This was a very difficult decision. Louisiana made an excellent proposal and demonstrated many important and valuable attributes for business development. Governor Blanco and her team made a tremendous effort and the professional approach of officials in Louisiana made our decision all the more difficult. We thank the Louisiana state team for their hard work, dedication and commitment to the selection process. "We recognize this announcement comes as a disappointment to many people in Louisiana, particularly those who worked so hard on this project. We are committed to fostering regional partnerships that will benefit the wider regional economy and remain steadfast believers in Louisiana as a viable economic engine."

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

29 State Economy DAs

2NC sugar industry/1 Louisiana is a uniquely key area for sugar production. It accounts for 1/5 of the US’s sugar growth American Sugar Cane League, 08 (“The Louisiana Sugar Industry,” July 8th, http://www.amscl.org/SugarIndustry.pdf, Date accessed: 8/2/08) Sugarcane is being produced on nearly 450,000 acres of land in 23 Louisiana Parishes. Production should exceed fourteen million tons of cane with an economic impact of $1.7 billion to the cane growers and raw sugar factories of the state. Louisiana produces about 20% of the sugar grown in the United States (beets and cane). Approximately 27,000 employees are involved in this production and processing of sugar in Louisiana alone. Of the U.S. sugar producing areas, Louisiana is the oldest and most historic. Sugarcane arrived in Louisiana with the Jesuit priests in 1751 who planted it near where their church now stands on Baronne Street in New Orleans. Several plantations were planted in what is now the city limits of New Orleans and in 1795, Etienne deBore, first granulated sugar on a commercial scale in Audubon Park. Except for disastrous production years during the Civil War, during a disease epidemic of the 1920’s, and from 10 degree freezing temperatures affecting the 1990 crop, the Louisiana sugarcane industry has continued to increase in productivity, mainly due to improved varieties, cultural practices, pest control and sugar processing techniques. The Louisiana sugarcane industry is currently in its third century of sugar production.

Key to the national economy Jones 03 (Calvin, CEO – Wyoming Sugar Company, Federal Document Clearing House Congressional Testimony, “Domestic Natural Gas Supply Shortage”, 6-19, Lexis, Accessed: 6/8/2005) I am here representing the Beet Sugar Industry as part of a much larger "Sweetener Industry" that consists of sugarbeet, sugar cane and corn. This industry annually creates $21.1 billion of economic activity in 42 states. The industry provides American consumers with high quality sweeteners for various applications. American consumers pay 22 percent less than their counterparts in other developed countries. The beet sugar segment of this industry plants over 1,400,000 acres of sugar beets in 12 states that are processed by 27 beet sugar factories. The industry creates 88,200 full time direct and indirect jobs for people across the nation. Wyoming is one of the 12 sugar beet producing states where over 400 growers produce about 56,000 acres of sugar beets. Those beets are then processed by three factories operated by two companies, Wyoming Sugar Company, LLC and Western Sugar Cooperative. The economic activity generated in the state of Wyoming each year by the Sweetener Industry is $159,600,000.1 The US Sweetener Industry is integral to the national economy, as a well as each state where sweeteners are grown and processed. Current United States sugar policy allows efficient U.S. beet, cane and corn growers and processors to compete against unfair foreign subsidies and trade practices. The program provides reliable supplies of sugar at fair and stable prices.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

30 State Economy DAs

2NC sugar industry/2 Multiple factors make Louisiana uniquely key to the us sugar industry ODOM, LOUISIANA COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE, 03 (BOB, Farm Service Agency, “REMARKS MADE BY LOUISIANA COMMISSIONER OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY BOB ODOM REGARDING TRANSFER OF SUGAR ALLOTMENTS,” 1/29, http://www.fsa.usda.gov/Internet/FSA_File/bob_odom_transfersugar_012903.pdf, date accessed: 8/2/08) Over the next two centuries, Louisiana farmers and scientific researchers have been the leaders worldwide in developing new varieties, cultural practices, pest control strategies and sugar processing techniques. For more than two centuries then, Louisiana has developed the technology, the infrastructure and the markets to grow, process and market sugar. Sugar is Louisiana’s largest agricultural industry. Sugar cane is grown in 25 parishes and results in some $700 million to the farm community. In addition, the value to the farmer does not take into account all the ancillary jobs related to the sugar that make up the commercial foundation and business infrastructure of all of South Louisiana. The total economic impact to Louisiana each year is in excess of $1.7 billion. Sugar is by far the largest income generator within all of Louisiana agriculture. Sugar is the backbone of the heritage, the history and the economy of south Louisiana. The value of cane and sugar to Louisiana is evident. But talk of moving sugar cane farming to California or Arizona ignores an essential ingredient readily available in Louisiana that is sorely lacking in those two states.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

***Florida***

31 State Economy DAs

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

32 State Economy DAs

Florida DA – 1NC Shell A. Florida economy is improving, indicating the worst is over. Orlando Business Journal, 7–11-8 “Florida economy starting to improve, slowly.” http://orlando.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/07/14/story2.html?t=printable, July 11, 2008. The worst of the state's recession is over. So says Evangelos Otto Simos, chief economist for Durham, N.H.-based Infometrica. His firm runs e-forecasting.com, which just issued a new report saying Florida's leading economic indicators showed improvement in May, for the second straight month. And that, Simos says, may signal the bottom of the economic cycle has come and gone. "The economy is still not good, but it won't become worse than it is. It's the beginning of the turnaround."

B. Sugar is key to Florida’s Economy Alvarez and Polopolus 2 (Jose and Leo C., Professor, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Everglades Research and Education Center, Belle Glade, FL and Professor Emeritus, Department of Food and Resource Economics, Florida Cooperative Extension Service, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL., The Florida Sugar Industry, http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu/SC042#FOOTNOTE_1)

The Florida sugar industry is a major component of the state's agricultural economy. Cash receipts from the sale of raw sugar and molasses have exceed $800 million per year in the last years of the 1990s and first seasons of the 2000 decade. The revenue generated by the sugar industry has a significant impact on southern Florida and the state's economy. When the multiplier effect is taken into account, the Florida raw sugar industry generates gross sales of over $2 billion in the state and creates several thousand full-time equivalent jobs in Florida. After establishing the contribution of the raw sugar industry to the regional and state economies, Mulkey and Gordon (1979) made some important statements in the first economic impact study conducted by the Department of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida. More than 20 years later, those statements are still true: At present there are uncertainties regarding United States and international sugar policies. Potential changes in policy are likely to have important implications for the Florida sugar industry and for the economy of the four-county sugar producing area. Information on the contribution of the sugar industry to the regional economy is a necessary input into policy decisions which affect the sugar industry and, subsequently, the entire regional economy (p. 2)... Any public policy then which affects the size of the sugar industry has important implications for total economic activity in the sugar producing region, implications extending far beyond the sugar industry itself. These implications would seem to warrant serious considerations in the sugar policy arena (p. 27).

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

33 State Economy DAs

Florida DA – 1NC Shell 2/2 C. Florida key to the US economy - exports contribute to 25% of the national GDP Economist 8 http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10650727 In Florida, Nevada and Arizona the story is similar: plunging house prices, rising foreclosures and disproportionate increases in unemployment. Not all is gloomy: in these states, as in the rest of America, strong global growth and the weak dollar have buoyed export industries and boosted tourism. (Orlando International Airport, the gateway to Disney World, saw a record number of passengers last year.) But these positives have failed to counter the drag from housing and weaker consumer spending. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, reckons that all four bubble states, along with Michigan, are already in recession. Together, he points out, they make up

25% of America's GDP.

2. The U.S. economy accounts for 30% of the world economy – a collapse would be devastating The Guardian on 6/4 (Ashley Seager, economics correspondent, “World still dependent on US economy, says Bush adviser”, http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/jun/04/useconomy.usa) Ed Lazear, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, said that the idea of decoupling would only be realistic if the US's share of the world economy had fallen and if international trade flows dried up. But, he said, the giant US economy still accounts for 30% of the world total and trade flows have increased in recent years. "It is difficult to argue that the rest of the world is less connected to the US and not more connected," Lazear said at a conference of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris.

3. Global economic decline will bring Armageddon. Bearden 00 (Tom, PhD Nuclear Engineering, The Tom Bearden Website, April 25, 2000, o/l: http://www.cheniere.org/correspondence/042500%20-%20modified.htm, Accessed 5/11/07.] Just prior to the terrible collapse of the World economy, with the crumbling well underway and rising, it is inevitable that some of the weapons of mass destruction will be used by one or more nations on others. An interesting result then—as all the old strategic studies used to show—is that everyone will fire everything as fast as possible against their perceived enemies. The reason is simple: When the mass destruction weapons are unleashed at all, the only chance a nation has to survive is to desperately try to destroy its perceived enemies before they destroy it. So there will erupt a spasmodic unleashing of the long range missiles, nuclear arsenals, and biological warfare arsenals of the nations as they feel the economic collapse, poverty, death, misery, etc. a bit earlier. The ensuing holocaust is certain to immediately draw in the major nations also, and literally a hell on earth will result. In short, we will get the great Armageddon we have been fearing since the advent of the nuclear genie. Right now, my personal estimate is that we have about a 99% chance of that scenario or some modified version of it, resulting.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

34 State Economy DAs

Florida Uniqueness – Economy Strong Now Florida economy is resilient, the job market is growing. Vitner 7 Mark Vitner is a senior economist at Wachovia Corp., the giant North Carolina-based financial institution that is one of Florida's largest lenders. “Aside from housing, expert says Florida's economy is doing well.” Herald Tribune. http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071029/REALESTATE/710290378, October 29, 2007. The state's economy overall is both doing far better than most people think and, at the same time, struggling along the lines everybody thinks, too. The housing industry is incredibly weak, but parts of the state are doing very well, especially in Central Florida, where industrial products producers continue to do very well. In addition, exports continue to expand. In short, the housing sector remains weak, but the rest of the state's economy has been very resilient. We're still adding jobs at a faster rate than the rest of the country, and unemployment is a full percentage point below the rest of the country.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

35 State Economy DAs

Florida – Link - Sugar Loss of sugar will cause entire towns to disappear as jobs do. Ruane, July 30, 2008. (Diane, News- Press.com) “Clewiston Ponders it’s Future” http://www.newspress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080730/NEWS01/807300404/1002

More than $1.6 billion a year, and more than 10,000 jobs. That's the hit counties in South Florida could take if the state buyout of U.S. Sugar Corp. happened now, according to a draft research paper by University of Florida agricultural economists. Key findings, still unpublished by the university, were first reported Tuesday in news-press.com. The economic impact estimates were for Hendry, Glades and Palm Beach counties. "Some big numbers ... pretty scary," said Miller Couse, chairman & CEO of First Bank of Clewiston, who saw a copy of the report Monday. In Clewiston, a community of 7,000 that brands itself "America's Sweetest Town," emotions differed over how the sale of U.S. Sugar might reshape their futures. Clewiston resident Alphonso Lyman called the pending sale "bad.""We don't talk about it," he said. Lyman is a 17-year employee of the sugar company that has dominated the economy of the Lake Okeechobee region for more than 70 years. Downtown at the Common Grounds coffee shop, owner Lori Williams said: "This community is strong. I don't think this city is going to go under." Williams acknowledged not everyone shares her hopefulness."I think a lot of people will be scared," Williams said. "They will uproot, and they will go." Impacts are expressed in 2008 dollars, although the deal allows U.S. Sugar to continue operations for up to six years. The document lists its authors as Alan W. Hodges, W. David Mulkey, Thomas H. Spreen and Rodney L. Clouser of the UF's Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. It was prepared at the request of Florida Farm Bureau. Researchers acknowledged they assumed some outcomes unlikely to occur, including a complete and permanent end to all agricultural operations formerly done by U.S. Sugar. The report doesn't include estimates of new revenues from environmental restoration and management after the sale."The economic impacts of the U.S. Sugar Corp. buyout will be very large in magnitude," said the report, dated July 23, as its bottom line. It said the effects could be particularly acute in Glades and Hendry counties. Hendry is where where the company's main processing plants are. "It's showing a worst-case scenario," Couse said of the economists' report.Couse noted in the Clewiston area, where his family grows sugar cane, "people still cannot figure out how this (transaction) will be pulled off. Who's going to own U.S. Sugar or will they let it close? "If that industry closes here, it would be devastating to our community," Couse said.

Loss of sugar jobs hurt the local economies Lantigua 8 (JOHN Palm Beach Post Staff Writer, June 30, Palm Beach Post, GLADES DREADS 'TRAUMATIC' LOSS OF SUGAR JOBS)

That is because the relationship between the largest sugar companies in the Glades -- U.S. Sugar and Florida Crystals -- and the cities in this depressed rural area has always been both dependent and prickly. Local leaders have long accused Big Sugar of keeping such a tight rein on its land that it has stifled the progress of the small cities. Now U.S. Sugar is divesting itself of its land. But the pending loss of jobs and the secrecy with which the company conducted negotiations to sell its 187,000 acres to the state is resented here. "Many people are shocked to hear this out of the blue," said Linda Johnson, a South Bay city commissioner. "The state made this deal, but we need to be at the table to help decide how our cities will survive. "With unemployment out here already high, the price of gas what it is, making it so expensive to commute, with many people having worked at U.S. Sugar for so long, what are those folks going to do for work now?" Johnson said. "We need to know the state's plans. I know we have six years, but we have to start now." The sugar industry has been the major employer in the region since it was settled in the early 20th century. And, despite constant efforts, few other businesses have come to the Glades, 50 miles from the coast. The area is so depressed that no Wal-Mart, Kmart, Publix or movie theater does business in the towns. Leaders sound alarm Given those facts, the immediate reaction to the news from local leaders was one of deep dismay. "It's going to be dramatic and traumatic," said Ken Lutz, former president of the Belle Glade Chamber of Commerce. "We still have lots of people who drive back and forth to Clewiston every day to work for U.S. Sugar," Pahokee Mayor Wayne Whitaker said. "It's gonna hurt us real bad." South Bay Mayor Shirley Walker-Turner was equally worried.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

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36 State Economy DAs

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

37 State Economy DAs

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

38 State Economy DAs

Minnesota - Non-Unique – Economy Low Now Minnesota is in a recession Baxter 7-16 - 08 (Annie, Minessota public radio, It was only about 10 months ago that talk of a recession in this country started heating up. But the beginnings of the slowdown in Minnesota can be traced back several years, to a time when the state was adding thousands of jobs a month, and gas was less than $2.50 a gallon. St. Paul, Minn. — Here's why we're doing this. All the economic indicators are blinking red. Gas costs $4 a gallon, food prices have been up 5 percent over last year, and U.S. payrolls have shed more than 400,000 jobs. As early as January, Minnesota's state economist had seen enough to say the state was already in recession.It's tough times for a lot of people. And a big question is: How and where did it all start?

Unemployment is at record highs Kubly 6-26 - 08 (Gary, state senator, “Minnesota unemployment reaches 17-year high”, http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/members/member_pr_display.php?ls=67&id=1794.) A new report issued last week by the Department of Employment and Economic Development (DEED) indicated that the state’s recent economic slump is showing no signs of ending soon. In May, the state’s jobless rate jumped to 5.4 percent, its highest level since 1991, and a 12 percent increase over April. Additionally, the report revealed that Minnesota has lost over 10,000 jobs in the past two months, essentially negating the modest job growth experienced in the beginning of 2008. “The data in this report pertains to the state as a whole. This is the first time I’ve seen in many years where the rural part of the state are actually doing better than the metro area during an economic slowdown. Good economic times for agriculture has helped rural businesses as well,” noted Sen. Gary Kubly, DFL-Granite Falls. “Having said that however, over the past 12 months, job growth in the state has been virtually nonexistent. Without significant new employment, the number of job seekers per job opening has risen considerably. As a result, it is taking laid-off workers longer to find new employment, meaning more and more people are exhausting their unemployment benefits before returning to the workforce. This is particularly troublesome when you consider the rising cost of food, gas, and energy that are draining family budgets. While the state’s economic outlook remains troubling, the legislature took several steps during the 2008 Legislative Session to spur job growth in the state, and protect workers who have been impacted by recent job losses. The legislature made major new investments in the state’s infrastructure, passing both a transportation funding bill as well as two capital-investment packages that support local economic-development projects in communities across the state. These investments will not only promote long-term, sustainable job-growth in Minnesota, but will bring immediate relief to the struggling construction industry. Since its peak in 2006, employers in the state’s construction sector have shed nearly 20,000 jobs. “Getting Minnesota’s economy on the right track means supporting local economic development in every community in the state,” said Sen. Kubly. “This session, we passed smart investments that will create new jobs across Minnesota and provide a much-needed boost to our economy.” Sen. Kubly added that the legislature also advanced a plan to provide additional support to laid-off workers who struggle to reenter the workforce. The plan contains a 13-week unemployment benefit expansion for workers in counties that have been hit hardest by recent job losses, which would be available until June of next year. In addition, the plan requires the state’s Unemployment Insurance Advisory Council to develop recommendations regarding how future benefit extensions could be implemented to meet the changing needs of the state’s workforce. “Rebuilding the state’s economy will take time, and it could take months or years until we’ve fully recovered,” said Sen. Kubly. “In the meantime, we cannot ignore the needs of families impacted by layoffs and lagging job growth. I’m hopeful that we can take a serious look at the state’s Unemployment Insurance system, and work to find cost-effective ways to protect Minnesota families.”

Business confidence is tanking Creighton university news 7-1 (Mid-America Business Conditions Index, ttp://www2.creighton.edu/publicrelations/newscenter/news/2008/july2008/july12008/goss_mid_am_nr070108/in dex.php.) Minnesota: For the fourth time in the past six months, the Business Conditions Index from a survey of supply managers in Minnesota slipped below growth neutral. The index, a leading economic indicator, declined to 49.0 from May’s tepid 51.8. Components of the overall index for June were new orders at 48.1, production at 50.9, delivery lead time at 57.4, inventories at 49.1, and employment at 41.5. “Minnesota firms experienced weak business activity for June. Pullbacks for transportation-equipment manufacturers and food processors more than offset expansions for other manufacturers. The Minnesota business confidence index at 29.6, was the lowest in the nine-state region and reflects the economic uncertainty facing firms in the state,” said Goss.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

39 State Economy DAs

Minnesota – Turn - Soybeans Sugar subsidies jack Minnesotan soybean exports Bovard 98 (James, April, policy advisor to The Future of Freedom Foundation, “The Great Sugar Shaft”, http://www.fff.org/freedom/0498d.asp.) The sugar program has also decreased soybean exports. In the Red River valley of Minnesota, heavily subsidized sugar growers have bid up the rents on farmland by more than 50 percent. As a result, relatively unsubsidized soybean farmers can no longer find sufficient land to grow soybeans, America's premier export crop. This illustrates how restrictions on imports become restrictions on exports.

Soybeans key to Minnesota’s agriculture Hilber 02 (Don, April, Consulting Economist, Research and Statistics Office Minnesota Department of Economic Security, Regional Spotlight: Northwest Minnesota, Food, Farming and Free Trade, http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/review/0402rs.htm) Despite this, the agricultural products from the Northwest are not generally bound for global markets, at least not directly. Sixty-three percent of Minnesota's farm exports in 1999 were feed grains (mostly corn) and soybeans. Red meat and vegetables each accounted for another 10 percent— mainly hogs, green peas and sweet corn. Wheat accounted for only 3.0 percent, a level roughly matched by dairy and poultry. So the primary exporters reside in the south, not the north of the state. Presently, the products of Northwest Minnesota mainly serve domestic markets. Some, such as dairy products, eggs and potatoes, are difficult to ship long distances given their weight-to-value or refrigeration needs. Sugar beets compete with imports. And that is the question for farm policy in the region. A more open system worldwide would favor products in which the United States has a competitive advantage, primarily meats and feeds. Other nations can underprice on row crops and on tropical products like citrus, cotton and sugar. All are now heavily supported by either payments or quotas. Emerging market nations will hammer at the U.S. to give them access to our consumers. With a small number of jobs in food manufacturing and a rising share of farm income from government payments, the fate of the Northwest Region hinges on national and worldwide policy decisions that will be made during the next few years. And there will be plenty of action as Congress redebates the Freedom to Farm Act, China joins the World Trade Organization, and a new round of contentious trade talks gets underway. The Northwest's unique mix of products may be a geographic necessity, but it leaves few allies elsewhere in the nation when votes are needed for continued price supports. The region might be wise to develop additional value-added production, particularly in the more widespread, lucrative and export-oriented livestock business.

Key to the overall economy Hilber 02 (Don, April, Consulting Economist, Research and Statistics Office Minnesota Department of Economic Security, Regional Spotlight: Northwest Minnesota, Food, Farming and Free Trade, http://www.deed.state.mn.us/lmi/publications/review/0402rs.htm) The importance of agriculture to Northwest Minnesota's economy is unmistakable. Several other industries can claim to constitute the area's economic base: tourism, specialized manufacturing (dominated by wood products and recreational equipment), and providing services such as healthcare to retirees. But agriculture still leads the pack. Together, farming and food manufacturing account for a higher-than-expected level of total employment in the area (compared to the state average) than healthcare, retail stores, eating and drinking places and durable manufacturing. Farming commands a greater relative share of personal income than any of the other contenders. And agriculture is the only element of the economic base to permeate the entire 25-county area: tourism, manufacturing and healthcare are each mainly located in specific sub-regions or concentrated in a few nodes.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

40 State Economy DAs

Minnesota - Turn – Tradeoff w/Other Industries Sugar subsidies kills job growth in other Minnesota sectors Edwards 07 (6-20, Before joining Cato in 2001, Edwards was senior economist on the congressional Joint Economic Committee examining tax, Social Security, and entrepreneurship issues. “Why Congress Should Repeal Sugar Subsidy” http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=8381.) Most sugar beet production is in Minnesota, Idaho, North Dakota, Michigan and California. Most sugarcane production is in Florida and Louisiana. Not surprisingly, policymakers from those states usually block sugar reform. Nonetheless, policymakers from Illinois and other such states, which have food companies damaged by high sugar prices, are challenging the current program. High sugar prices harm manufacturers of candies, chocolates and breakfast cereal. A 2006 study by the Commerce Department found that for each sugar industry job saved by the sugar program, nearly three food manufacturing jobs are lost. The study found that: * Employment in food companies that use substantial amounts of sugar is declining. Imports of foo d products that contain sugar are growing because it is not competitive to make those products in the U.S. * Numerous companies have relocated to Canada and Mexico, where sugar prices are much lower. * Chicago, once the nation's candy manufacturing capital, has lost thousands of jobs. In 2004, candy maker Fannie May closed its Chicago factory and Brach's moved its Chicago candy production to Mexico. * Michigan took a hit in 2002, when Kraft moved its 600–worker LifeSavers factory to Canada in search of low–cost sugar. * Hershey Foods closed plants in Pennsylvania, Colorado and California and relocated them to Canada as well.

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

41 State Economy DAs

Minnesota - No Internal Link – Manufacturing Key Manufacturing is key to the Minnesota economy not agriculture Minnesota Department of Finance 07 (Janurary, “State Revenues On Target Since November Forecast”, http://www.finance.state.mn.us/ffeu/updates/2007/0701update.pdf.) In the early 1960’s much of Minnesota’s economic activity was attributable to its abundant resources. The state’s agricultural, mining, and forestry sectors and the associated manufacturing activity in the food processing, lumber and wood products, and paper industries accounted for about 19 percent of total state product, 9 percentage points more than the national average. Since then Minnesota has evolved into a diversified manufacturing-services based economy. The resource-based sectors have grown, but they have not grown as fast as other parts of the economy. Now manufacturing, trade, and finance are the largest contributors to Minnesota’s Gross State Product. The changes in Minnesota’s economy that have occurred since the 1960s have created an economy very similar in structure to that of the national economy. Manufacturing is now a greater proportion of the Minnesota economy than it is for the national economy, as are the trade, financial services, and management services sectors. The information sector and the leisure and hospitality industry are a smaller share of Minnesota’s economy than the national economy. The government sector in Minnesota also comprises a smaller share of the state’s economy than it does, on average, nationally

Arizona Debate Institute 2008 Holbrook

42 State Economy DAs

Minnesota - Mexico Economy turn Mexican economy slowing- US downturn spilling over Garr 8 (Emily, Economic Policy Institute [http://www.epi.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots_20080709] As U.S. construction slows, remittances to families in Mexico decline/ July 9, 2008) More remittances are sent to Mexico in May than any other month of the year, driven in part by the number of immigrants (a majority of them Mexican) working in construction. With the deflating housing bubble and the decline of construction jobs in the first quarter of 2008, the unemployment rate of Hispanic immigrants rose to 7.5%, and Hispanic construction workers now earn less than they did in the first quarter of 2006.1 The continuing economic slowdown in the United States will undoubtedly affect Mexicans on both sides of the border.

Eliminating subsidies would cause an influx of Mexican sugar onto the market it be huge for their economy Ma 04 (Kevin, 12-13, author for the journal of Canadian studies, “A BITTERSWEET RECIPE: CANDY, SUGAR, NAFTA, AND THE STRUGGLE FOR A NORTH AMERICAN SWEETENER STORE”, http://revista.amec.com.mx/num_8_2004/Ma_Kevin.htm.) These new regulations should cause some big changes to the pre NAFTA balance of power. Article 303, fully implemented, would be a huge victory for Canadian sugar producers. Likewise, Annex 703.3 would make life sweet for Mexican sugar producers, as the US would have to give in to Mexico’s demands for fewer restrictions on their exports. Furthermore, with the elimination of most of its sugar subsidies, Mexico could easily undercut the price of US sugar and flood the US with sugar exports, handing it a massive economic victory. Candy producers would gain the most of all: NAFTA’s investment provisions would let them move factories and products across boarders cheaper, and its sugar provisions would bring North American (read: US) sugar prices in line with the rest of the world, cutting their production costs. As a result, back in 1994, the post NAFTA world looked sweet indeed for candy producers, and Canadian and Mexican sugar producers.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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Minnesota – Impact - Mexico not Key to Global economy Mexico does not have a drastic effect on the world economy Smith and Walter 95+ (Roy C. NYU Kenneth Langone Professor of Entrepreneurship and Finance, Seymour Milstein Professor of Finance, Ingo Corporate Governance and Ethics at the Stern School of Business, New York University http://books.google.com/books?id=Js1vyvBTLlsC&pg=PA199&lpg=PA199&dq=%22tequila+effect%22,+mexico& source=web&ots=LxDKJg8R3F&sig=q7xbD0BIlT4 gZmHjJY3q6ZQmvA&hl=en&sa= X&oi=book_result&resnum=1&ct=result#PPA199,M1 ) The tequila effect was limited and did not last long, except in Mexico. The paper rightly points out that the Mexico crisis resulted in an overhang, the tequila effect, in Mexico and many other emerging markets in the first quarter of 1995. But there has been a substantial correction since then (Figure 1, data from the IFC’s Emerging Markets Data Base). Stock markets in Argentina, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, for example, soon recovered and were at the same level or higher at the end of 1995 compared with January 1994. Since then , equity markets have further recovered in many emerging markets.

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Louisiana – Non-Unique – Economy Low Now Louisiana economy tanked in the squo high oil prices Moses 7-10 -08 (Caroline, WAFB reporter,“Governor Jindal offers suggestions related to oil”, http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=8631309)

Louisiana's economy does not always shift with the rest of the country. In fact, when oil and gas are in high demand and the rest of the country is struggling to pay up, parts of Louisiana profit. However, Governor Jindal says other key parts of the state's progress lose big. "Many years, thought as the price of oil went up, that was overall good thing for Louisiana's economy. We certainly have many jobs in the emergency sector, we certainly are pleased energy sector is doing well. But also have many jobs in manufacturing center, in service industry that negatively are impacted by high costs of energy." Among those impacted negatively are people looking for new jobs. Jindal says new companies avoid coming to Louisiana because energy prices are so high. "They're looking at multi-billion dollar investments overseas versus continuing to invest here in Louisiana." Jindal says the best way to gain more economic development opportunities for the state is to find alternative sources of fuel fast. "We're going to pursue tax policies to promote research and develop aggressively to pursue grants and other investments similar research." Louisiana’s economy sucks it up and needs to improve The Times 7-25 (La.'s credit improves, but work remains, http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080725/OPINION03/807250305/1058,) The boom in energy prices in an oil-and-gas producing state doesn't hurt. And a lot of dollars are still being spent on hurricane recovery, meaning construction jobs and revenue from materials. But the Council for a Better Louisiana also credits some fiscal areas state government is getting right: a conservative method of projecting state revenues that helps hold down spending; a strong, legislatively mandated "rainy day" fund of about three-quarters of a billion dollars; a variety of trust funds that provide ongoing revenues for coastal restoration, education and health care. The sobering news, CABL points out bond ratings are tied with California for lowest in the country. In quizzing the Standard & Porr’s credit analyst who prepared Louisiana's report, CABL found the states economies one drawback citing a lack of diversification and low household incomes So take the good news about our credit ratings to appreciate that some state policies are tracking in the right direction, but know there remains ground to make up

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Louisiana – Non-Unique – Economy Low Now Louisiana economy is structurally doomed The Daily Reveille 7-16 (“Column: Gas prices aren't figment of our imagination”, http://www.uwire.com/Article.aspx?id=1046966) With gas prices rising day after day and paychecks not going as far as they used to, Americans have been hit both at the pump and in the wallet. Louisiana is no exception -- and for far too many Louisianans, rebuilding costs are being offset by the price of refueling their cars. But these troubling facts have not affected the Republican platform this year. Just ask Sen. Gramm. "We have sort of become a nation of whiners," Gramm told the Washington Times. "You just hear this constant whining, complaining about a loss of competitiveness, America in decline. Misery sells newspapers. Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day." The reaction was immediate. Democrats were quick to haul out the ridicule wagon, and even John McCain was forced to distance himself from his campaign's top financial policy maker despite releasing statements earlier in the day defending Gramm. By the end of the day, the consensus and an uneasy truce seemed to be reached between the Republican party and the press; only John McCain spoke for John McCain, and he shouldn't be held responsible for the descriptions of his policies formulated by his designated surrogates and policy gurus. Unfortunately for the McCain campaign, McCain himself has repeatedly characterized America's economic policies in much the same way -- and suggested his own solutions to it are the antidepressants Sen. Gramm implied Americans need. Earlier this year at a West Palm Beach, Fla., town hall meeting held Jan. 24 -- and available on YouTube -- McCain asserted America's economic downturn is all in our heads. "A lot of this is psychological," McCain said. "A lot of it's psychological." McCain asserted the same sentiment this past April on Fox News with Neil Cavuto. Cavuto asked McCain about the benefits of McCain's plan to rescind an 18-cent gas tax during the summer. "I'm very concerned about it, Neil. And obviously the way it's been going up is just terrible," McCain said. "But I think psychologically and a lot of our problems today, as you know, are psychological - the confidence, trust, the uncertainty about our economic future, ability to keep our own home. This might give them a little psychological boost. Let's have some straight talk, it's not a huge amount of money." And a little less than one month ago at a June 23 rally in Fresno, Calif., McCain said much the same thing when linking America's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to gas prices. "I am confident that, uh, the, the conflicts that we are in in both Iraq and Afghanistan have also a bearing on that. Even though it may take some years, the fact that we are exploiting those reserves would have psychological impact that I think is beneficial," McCain said. So, far from committing a media gaffe, Gramm seemed to be articulating a talking point long established by McCain. And this should trouble us both as Louisianians and University students. We live in a rural state. Many of us reside in an industrial city that just happens to have a major university smack in the middle of it, and -- as many of our international students have discovered -- having a car in Baton Rouge isn't a luxury. It's a necessity. Unlike many other big cities in America, Baton Rouge's public transportation is simply incapable of making busing convenient. Its streets are too clogged with traffic to make biking safe or particularly efficient - and the climate doesn't help either. We are stuck with the economy we have right now, just as when we graduate, we will be living in the economy the next president, Congress and Senate leave us. Rising gas prices hit a lot harder when there is no workable alternative to driving. So, Louisiana politicians need to answer some tough questions this coming election - especially those running on the Republican economic platform articulated by McCain. Does prospective vice presidential candidate and current Gov. Bobby Jindal agree with Sen. McCain that a large part of the economic problems in America are psychological? Are rising gas prices a figment of our imaginations? Would Jindal suggest Louisianians see a therapist rather than ask our representatives in Washingto to address national economic malfeasance? Or would an exorcist suffice?

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Scholars

Louisiana – Sugar Link Turn N/U and Turn – Louisiana sugar farms losing profitability now, subsidies only divert critical funding Michel 4 (Norbert Ph.D., is a policy analyst in the Center for Data Analysis at

The Heritage Foundation, March 7, Nothing, sweet about

sugar subsidies, http://www.heritage.org/Press/Commentary/ed031204a.cfm)

The fact is, because of foreign competition -- which is not going away -- American farmers no longer can earn sufficient profit from sugar. But rather than switch to more profitable crops, these farmers lobby Congress to restrict imports from foreign countries or levy tariffs to make foreign sugar uneconomical. As a result, they prolong their precarious positions, and Americans pay two to three times what the rest of the world pays for sugar. Worse yet, most of the support money goes not to struggling family farmers but to megafarms. Indeed, one Florida family, the Fanjuls, receive nearly half of all the benefits from the sugar-support program. Perhaps Ryan subscribes to the "moderate" view on tariffs -- that keeping the price of domestic sugar artificially high for a few years will enable the industry to restructure and move toward more profitable endeavors. But for how many years? Louisiana sugar producers have been protected by tariffs almost continuously since 1816. Import quotas on sugar have existed since 1934, except for one eight-year break that ended when President Reagan re-established them in 1982.

Despite the assistance, the industry has continued to shrink on its own. The number of sugar mills in the state has fallen from 46 in 1960 to 24 in 1980 to fewer than 20 today, even though the mills have become more productive. And now Sen. Landrieu -- and almost every other Louisiana politician -- opposes the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a plan that would double import quotas for sugar but take 15 more years to do it. What if, rather than propping up Louisiana's sugar industry since 1934, market forces had instead been allowed to dictate the best uses of the state's land and labor? What would have become of the state's great sugar plantations? Would they have switched to more profitable, more dependable crops or -- with the help of those dollars that went to sugar support -- to non-agricultural uses? We can't say for sure, but we can say that we'd have paid less for sugar over the past 70 years. We also can say we would've spent far fewer tax dollars to enrich a few wealthy landowners and that more of our land and labor would have been used for more profitable ventures. Moreover, anyone who followed the state's recent election for governor heard two words repeatedly -"brain drain." It's a huge issue in Louisiana, and both candidates rolled out plans to stop the exodus of the state's educated citizens and create more opportunities for them at home. Might more prudent use of the millions that went to "save" the sugar industry over the last 70 years have prevented this brain-drain crisis? Again, we can't say for sure. But we can say that when resources are diverted from their best use for decades on end, it forces those who are not members of the privileged sugar families to go elsewhere for opportunities.

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Florida – Non–Unique - Economy Low Now 1Florida is in recession CNNMoney ,08/01/08,CNNMoney.com, http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/56323bb0343913a0040c68e8b5664531.htm#TOP NEW YORK (Associated Press) - Economists from the Wachovia Economics Group said that Florida is officially in a recession. In a report released Thursday, Wachovia analysts said Florida's economy declined at its sharpest rate in 16 years during 2008's second quarter. Analysts predict that the state will lose momentum through 2008, then bottom out late this year or in early 2009. There is one bright spot. Tourism has held up well, the report said, with the number of visitors to the state up 3.4 percent

Recession now in Florida Helen Huntley, 08/01/08, Time personal finance Editor, http://www.tampabay.com/news/business/article751252.ece Wachovia economists confirmed Thursday what many Floridians already felt in their bones: The state is in a recession. In its first down quarter in 16 years, the Florida economy shrank 1.6 percent during the second quarter. It was the state economy's worst performance since 1991. The numbers produced the most miserable showing of all the large states and a sharp contrast to the U.S. economy, which grew 1.9 percent.

1Florida’s Economy low- weather, housing, lack of energy growth Tampa Bay Business Journal ,07/31,08, Tampa Bay Business Journal (http://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/stories/2008/07/28/daily45.html) “Our Florida utilities benefited from better weather than last year, but the continued weak Florida economy and housing market limited customer and energy sales growth. Various forecasts earlier in the year indicated that the housing market was expected to bottom out in 2008, but the credit and housing issues appear to be deeper and more protracted than were forecast even a few months ago,” Hudson said.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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Florida – Non–Unique - Economy Low Now Florida’s economy low for another year Jennifer Larino, 07/11,08, Orlando Business Journal , Contributing Writer (http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/stories/2008/07/14/focus1.html) The University of Central Florida was hit with the second part of a one-two punch last week when the state announced plans to cut the school's funding by another $10.9 million. This latest news comes on top of plans already under way at UCF to cut its colleges' funding for 20082009 by $13.9 million after budget shortfalls resulted in reduced funding for education, social services and other programs statewide. Forecasts calling for the current slow economy to last at least one more year means UCF can expect even more bad news next year, says UCF Provost Terry Hickey. "I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another reduction."

Housing market is down Susan R. Miller,

07/29/08, South Florida Business Journal, Associate Director, Information Services and Systems (http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2008/07/28/daily21.html?q=Florida%20economy) The news remains grim for South Florida’s housing market, with numerous factors in play that continue to stave off a recovery in sales of new and existing homes. A week economy, higher energy prices and bad news coming from financial markets are keeping potential buyers at bay, according to a report released Tuesday by Metrostudy. “While builder cutbacks and discounted pricing are having an effect on reducing the inventory of homes, the tightening of credit standards has removed a sizable number of formerly qualified buyers from the market, and the uncertainty surrounding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac represents additional financial market problems,” said Mike Inselmann, president of Metrostudy, a national housing tracking and consulting company.

Florida housing market crash effects national economy Adrian Burns, 07/25/08, Business First of Columbus, (http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/07/28/story4.html?q=Florida%20economy) A market that once seemed like a banker's Valhalla for its fountain of growth is instead weighing heavily on the Ohio banks that ventured there. A line of Midwestern banks in recent years traveled to Florida in an effort to tap the state's red-hot real estate market and robust economic growth. But the housing market there has turned ice cold and the state's economy has declined with it - woes that are wreaking havoc for the banks that once had high hopes for their forays.

Gonzaga Debate Institute 2008 Scholars

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Florida – Non–Unique - Sugar Industry ↓ SQ Sugar buyout to cost $1.6 billion revenue, and a loss in 10,700 jobs Laura Layden, 07/30/08, naples news, (http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jul/30/study-sugar-buyout-cost16-billion-revenue-10700-j/) Florida’s buyout of U.S. Sugar Corp. may bring more water to the Everglades, but it will be a huge drain on the state’s economy. The deal could wash away $1.64 billion in revenue annually and 10,711 jobs statewide, a draft study by University of Florida/IFAS researchers found.

US sugar buyout will costs thousands of jobs Laura Layden, 07/30/08, naples news, (http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2008/jul/30/study-sugar-buyout-cost16-billion-revenue-10700-j/) Most of the lost jobs would be in agriculture. But manufacturing jobs also would disappear and so would at least 500 jobs in transportation and warehousing, retail trade, health and social services and government, according to researchers. Most of the hurt will come from the loss of the company’s sugar cane operations because it’s the bulk of its business, with about 150,000 acres dedicated to the crop. About 7,018 jobs could be wiped out statewide.

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Florida – Turn - Environment Florida’s strong economy destroys the Everglades R. Weisskoff, 99, Economic Systems Research, Vol. 12, No. 3, 2000 (Received January 1999; revised November 1999) Missing Pieces in Ecosystem Restoration 273, http://exchange.law.miami.edu/everglades/science/weisskoff/missingpieces.htm In summary, South Florida's strong economy compounds its environmental problems: an expanding agricultural and commercial society serving a large tourist, retiree, and transient population. All this surrounds North America's only semitropical and largest remaining wetland, the Florida Everglades. The conflict between the economic growth of South Florida and the Everglades is occurring on four fronts (see the right-hand map in Figure 1). In the northern and central stretches of the ecosystem, the growth of Orlando's suburbs, the cattle lands of the Kissimmee River Valley, the diking of Lake Okeechobee, and the drainage of the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) have all resulted in changing the quality and quantity of the downstream flow to the remaining Everglades. To the southwest of Lake Okeechobee, new areas are still being opened for cattle, citrus, and vegetable production. To the east, only the 100 mile-long protective levee restrains the expansion of the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metropolitan areas into the Everglades, and three large water conservation areas, actually vast holding tanks, compartmentalize what once was the 'River of Grass'. To the south, Florida Bay and the Keys receive the nutrient-rich runoff from canals that drain the nearby eastern counties. The cities thrive as the Everglades die, despite the $1.1 billion already spent on restoration projects.4