Russian Oil Prices Disadvantage 08

Russian Oil Disadvantage SAMFORD DEBATE INSTITUTE ’08

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RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE INDEX Thesis: The thesis of this disadvantage is that a substantial increase in alternative energy incentives would undermine worldwide oil prices, which would devastate the Russian economy. In the present system, Russia is benefiting from a surge in worldwide oil prices, as it is one of the world’s leading exporters of oil and natural gas. However, the plan would significantly undercut worldwide demand for oil, leading to a substantial decrease in worldwide oil prices, triggering a Russian economic recession. As a strong Russian economy is essential to maintain control over its nuclear arsenal, the result would be nuclear proliferation and terrorism around the globe.

RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE INDEX........................................................................1 RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE SHELL (pg. 1 of 2).....................................................2 RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE SHELL (pg. 2 of 2).....................................................3 Uniqueness Extensions: Russia’s Economy Strong Now...................................................4 Uniqueness Extensions: Russia’s Economy Strong Now...................................................6 Link Extensions: Renewable Energy Decreases World Oil Prices.....................................7 Link Extensions: Renewable Energy Decreases World Oil Prices.....................................8 Internal Link Extensions: Decreased Oil Prices Hurt Russia’s Economy..........................9 Impact Extensions..............................................................................................................10 Impact Extensions..............................................................................................................11 Uniqueness: High Oil Prices Don’t Threaten Russian Economic Growth.......................12 Impact Extensions: Saudi Arabia......................................................................................13 Impact Extensions: Saudi Arabia......................................................................................14 *****Affirmative Answers*****......................................................................................15 Affirmative Answers..........................................................................................................16

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RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE SHELL (pg. 1 of 2) A) UNIQUENESS: High oil prices are propping up Russia’s economy now: Polya Lesova, 6/16/2008 (staff, Market Watch, http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/emerging-markets-report-russiaseconomy/story.aspx?guid=%7B62BBC950-CAC2-4D98-B4C9-42472807EBD1%7D&dist=hplatest)

"The Russian economy is extremely strong," Mayo said. "People are scrambling to upgrade their commodity-price forecasts. Domestic demand [also] remains very strong." Chart of RSX In New York, the Market Vectors-Russia ETF rose 0.8% at $55.92. In Moscow, the benchmark RTS stock index closed up 0.4%. The index is up

Russia's stock market is dominated by oil and gas stocks, reflecting the fact that the country is a big exporter of many commodities -- including oil, natural gas, and metals -- prices of which have surged in recent months. The price of oil, for example, hit a record high of $139.89 a barrel early Monday. For the resource-driven Russian economy, soaring commodity prices have been a bonanza. "It's not a very surprising figure given the kind of prices Russia's key commodity and energy exports are commanding at the moment," said Cameron Brandt, global markets analyst at EPFR Global, commenting on Russia's first-quarter GDP growth. 3.3% this year, making it one of the best performers among emerging markets.

B) LINK: Increases in alternative energy undercut worldwide oil prices: Michael Walsh, 2008 (staff, Villanova Environmental Law Journal, vol. 19. Online. Lexis. Accessed January 27, 2008). In addition to the supply decrease in recent years, demand has been increasing at staggering rates, resulting in record prices for fossil fuels. Assuming the demand for oil will continue to increase, some suggest that we are currently at a critical point where oil prices may begin to spiral out of control. Using alternative energy could be the answer to reducing the demand for fossil fuels.

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RUSSIAN OIL DISADVANTAGE SHELL (pg. 2 of 2) C) Impacts: 1) A collapse in world oil prices plunges the Russian economy into a recession. Lilia Shevtsova, 2007 (staff, The Australian, August 31. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). In the area of economy, Russia has never had it so good. The Russian economy is the 12th largest in the world. Economic growth in the first half of 2007 amounted to 7 to 8 per cent. Goldman Sachs has projected that by 2025 Russia could be a $US6 trillion economy and in the world league table. Russians live better -- the national average income reached $US350 ($427) a month in 2006, compared with $US80 ($98) in 2000; the number of people living below the poverty line

Russia looks a stable country, with a president who enjoys a sky-rocketing approval rating of 80 per cent. Appearances, however, are deceiving. As with everything else in Russia, the economy has a false bottom. The causes of the economy's success give no ground for optimism, mainly because the success is due to high oil prices. A collapse of the oil price could plunge the Russian economy into a recession. fell from 37 per cent in 1999 to 25 per cent in 2006.

2) A collapse in Russia’s economy risks widespread nuclear proliferation and a nuclear war: Patrick F. Speice, 2006 (staff, William and Mary Law Review, February 1, 2006. Online. Lexis. Accessed January 27, 2008). the end of the Cold War eliminated the rationale for maintaining a large militaryindustrial complex in Russia, and the nuclear cities were closed. This resulted in at least 35,000 nuclear scientists becoming unemployed in an economy that was collapsing. Although the economy has stabilized somewhat, there are still at least 20,000 former scientists who are unemployed or underpaid and who are too young to retire, raising the chilling prospect that these scientists will be tempted to sell their nuclear knowledge, or steal nuclear material to sell, to states or terrorist organizations with nuclear ambitions. The potential consequences of the unchecked spread of nuclear knowledge and material to terrorist groups that seek to cause mass destruction in the United States are truly horrifying. A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon would be devastating in terms of immediate human and economic losses. Moreover, there would be immense political pressure in the United States to discover the perpetrators and retaliate with nuclear weapons, massively increasing the number of casualties and potentially triggering a full-scale nuclear conflict. In addition to the threat posed by terrorists, leakage of nuclear knowledge and material from Russia will reduce the barriers that states with nuclear ambitions face and may trigger widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons. This proliferation will increase the risk of nuclear attacks against the United States or its allies by hostile states, as well as increase the likelihood that regional conflicts will draw in the United States and escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. Moreover,

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Uniqueness Extensions: Russia’s Economy Strong Now Oil price boom bolstering Russia’s economy now: Richard Valdmanis, 6/2/2008 (http://www.reuters.com/article/CentralEuropeanInvestment08/idUSSP32671320080602) Oil prices have doubled in a year to around $130 a barrel as rapid increases in consumption in China and other developing countries strain supplies, and some analysts have said crude could top $200 a barrel by 2010 as the market remains tight. While the boom has helped big oil producer countries, particularly Russia and parts of the Middle East, there are signs the major consumers -- the United States and parts of Europe and Asia -- are starting to crack under the strain.

Russia’s oil reserves are bolstering its economy now: Middle East and North Africa Financial Network, 2008 (staff writer. April 18, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed April 18, 2008). Russia's Economy Ministry said in a statement that the nation's economy has expanded an annual 8 percent in the first quarter as the country benefited from higher crude oil prices, Xinhua reported. Growth accelerated from 7.4 percent in the first quarter last year, the Moscow-based ministry said, citing its Chief

Russia has entered its 10th consecutive year of expansion, fueled by revenue from crude oil and natural gas exports. The economy will probably expand 7.1 percent this year, compared with an earlier forecast of 6.5 percent, helped by high crude prices, Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said earlier this month. Forecaster. However, it didn't give a figure for the previous quarter.

Russia’s oil reserves are creating a strong Russian economy: Thomas V. DiBacco, 2008 (staff writer, Orlando Sentinel, February 10, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). Who would have ever thought 10 years ago that the American economy would resemble a Third World country, with huge debts and a diminished currency, whereas Russia's would have strong reserves and a rising, respected currency? Forty-two years before that, when Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev vowed that his country would "bury" the United States, the threat was that capitalism would die and that the Soviet economic system would outlive it. Today, long after the demise of communism, some Cold War issues still fester between Russia and the U.S., such as missile defense and the expansion

the reality is that oil-rich Russia represents an enormous economic opportunity for the U.S., both in terms of exports and imports. of NATO. But

High oil prices spur vast Russian economic growth: Clifford J. Levy, 2008 (staff writer. The International Herald Tribune. Online. Lexis. Accessed, April 18, 2008). Spurred by high oil prices, the Russian economy grew 8 percent last year, and foreign investment there has soared. Once a pauper, Russia has squirreled away hundreds of billions of dollars in hard currency reserves. Malls are being erected across the country, and Wal-Mart just announced that it might soon open shop. Consumer confidence in Russia has reached its highest level since the financial collapse of 1998, according to new government data.

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Russia’s economy is strong now: Andrew Kramer, 1/26/2008 (staff writer, The International Herald Tribune, online. Lexis. Accessed, January 27, 2008) In almost a decade since the Russian debt crisis of 1998, finance officials here have amassed an enviable war chest while paying down nearly all sovereign debt. They are now describing Russia as the leading emerging-market economy that is the most insulated from the ill effects of a U.S. recession, an extraordinary role for a country that not so long ago was on its knees.

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Uniqueness Extensions: Russia’s Economy Strong Now Multiple economic indicators point to a healthy Russian economy now: Thomas V. DiBacco, 2008 (staff writer, Orlando Sentinel, February 10, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). Indeed, Russia not only has paid all the $200 billion foreign debt that it defaulted on in 1998, but it has muscled an average growth rate in its economy of 7 percent for the past five years. Its rich are getting richer, but so are workers, whose salaries have doubled since 2003. Massive double-digit inflation has declined to a single digit. The nation's gross domestic product has mushroomed, from $345 billion in 2002 to $945 billion in 2006. And Russian foreigncurrency reserves total $478 billion -- more than 10 times what they were in 2002 -- and are among the biggest per capita among large economies. Perhaps most of all in terms of the United States, Russia has oil -- it's the world's second-largest producer -- and 56 percent of the world's proven natural-gas reserves, to say nothing about its rich supply of metals.

Russia’s oil reserves are allowing it to develop cash assets. Robert Marquand, 2007 (staff writer, Christian Science Monitor. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008). To be sure, experts say, Russia has been struggling itself over the past decade - after a half-century of being at the center of

Putin took over a Russia with a weak government, and has been steadily recentralizing authority in the Kremlin. But holding the world's largest natural gas reserves and substantial oil reserves in a hot energy market, Russia is quickly developing cash assets. the cold war.

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Link Extensions: Renewable Energy Decreases World Oil Prices Studies prove that increased renewable energy use will drive down the price of fossil fuels: Environment News Service, 2006 (staff writer. Online. Internet. Accessed, February 10, 2008. http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/nov2006/2006-11-1305.asp.) Energy can be derived from wind, solar and the burning of agricultural waste. Biomass resources like stalks from food crops, logging slash,

RAND researchers Mark estimate that about 18 percent of total U.S. energy demand in 2025 could be met by renewable sources of energy. They find that as renewable energy supplants nonrenewable energy, demand for fuels declines, driving down the prices of fossil fuels in the computer model. and grasses can be turned into ethanol to power motor vehicles. The authors, Bernstein, Jay Griffin, and Robert Lempert,

An increase in renewable energy use is necessary to decrease oil prices Mandy B. Seuffert, 2007 (attorney practicing in intellectual property law, Penn State Environmental Law Review, Winter 2007. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008). The recent spikes in oil prices across this country are no doubted felt by most Americans at the gasoline pump. Consumer spending has been affected by the increased oil prices as well as the stock and bond markets. 72 The Federal Reserve also increased interest-rates to curb the inflation. 73 The

United States is attempting to stabilize oil prices in Iraq; however, current energy polices are slated too much towards oil. 74 Policy makers need to concentrate their efforts on moving this country away from its dependence on oil, and steering the nation in the direction of renewable energy sources. The government could either take steps to significantly decrease the number of gasoline consuming automobiles on the road or promote public transportation alternatives.

Surging demand from the United States is critical to high world oil prices. Steve Hargreaves, 2007 (staff writer. June 21, 2007. Online. Internet. Accessed February 10, 2007. http://money.cnn.com/2007/06/21/news/economy/renewable_drivers/index.htm)

A significant increase in fossil fuel prices - Oil prices have skyrocketed in the past few years, more than tripling since 2002. Most analysts blame surging demand - mainly from the United States and developing nations - that has led to oil consumption amounts that are nearly equal to the amount the world produces.

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Link Extensions: Renewable Energy Decreases World Oil Prices Declining oil consumption empirically leads to huge drops in oil prices John Cassidy, 2007 (staff writer, December 17, 2007. Online. Internet. Accessed, February 10, 2008, http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2007/12/17/Why-Oil-Prices-WillDrop).

Between 1979 and 1983, oil consumption in the non-Communist world fell by 6 billion barrels a day, or more than 10 percent. Motorists bought smaller cars. Homeowners threw out their oil furnaces. Power stations switched to coal, nuclear fuel, and natural gas. And this all happened at a time when new oil fields in Alaska, Mexico, and the North Sea were coming onstream in a big way. The result was an excess supply of crude and a huge drop in prices. In 1986, the cost of a barrel of crude fell to as low as $11. The oil industry entered a prolonged slump, devastating Texas and other producing areas. For most of the '90s, the cost of a barrel of crude stayed below $20. At the end of 1988 and the start of 1989, it fell below $10, and you could get change out of a dollar for a gallon of gas.

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Internal Link Extensions: Decreased Oil Prices Hurt Russia’s Economy A significant fall in oil prices risks a Russian economic recession. Catrina Stewart, 2008 (staff writer, The Moscow Times. January 22, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). On Jan. 3, oil briefly broke through the $100 barrier, reaching an all-time high of $100.09. Russia, which has enjoyed an economic boom over the past few years on the back of its oil wealth, is particularly vulnerable to a significant fall in energy prices. "The only way a recession is going to hit Russia is through commodity prices," Nash said.

Without high oil prices there would essentially be no Russian economy. Shlomo Maital, 2008 (staff writer, The Jerusalem Report. January 21, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). Basically, Vladimir, you won the lottery. Russia is the world's second largest oil producer, just behind Saudi Arabia, and the world's largest natural gas producer. Oil and gas prices have soared. Without this, there would be no Russian economy. "Putin arrived on the scene at a good time in Russia's economic cycle," McFaul and Stoner-Weiss write, "and got even luckier as oil prices rose worldwide."

High oil prices are critical to Russian economic stability. Andrew Kramer, January 26, 2008 (staff writer, The International Herald Tribune, online. Lexis. Accessed, January 27, 2008) Russia will be an ''island of stability,'' Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin boasted this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Foreign currency reserves of $478 billion, derived from windfall oil profits, are now the largest in the world per capita among big economies and will ''play the role of an air bag'' for the country, Kudrin said, as quoted by the Russian Information Agency. ''Russia will soon be the focus of attention as a haven of stability,'' he said.

A steep downturn in oil prices would flatten Russian economic growth. Andrew Kramer, January 26, 2008 (staff writer, The International Herald Tribune, online. Lexis. Accessed, January 27, 2008) A steep downturn in crude oil prices below a now improbable $50 a barrel would flatten Russia's growth, according to Julia Tsepliaeva, Merrill's chief economist for the republics of the former Soviet Union.

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Impact Extensions Russian Economic downturn creates turmoil -risks the use of 1000s of nuclear warheads Shelton 01 Shelton, Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, 1-15-2001 (Henry) Vital Speeches No. 7, Vol. 67; Pg. 194 ; ISSN: 0042-742X Force, Forces, and Forecasting; Henry H. Shelton speech; Transcript In much the same way while the Balkans remain a serious concern in Europe, but the situation there pales in comparison with events

the future of Europe swings on the path that Russian nationalism takes and whether Russia can continue its peaceful evolution into a fully democratic nation with a stable economy that abides by the rule of law. As I discussed with my counterpart, Russian Chief of Staff Kvashnin, this past Tuesday, one of the most potentially destabilizing factors in the region is the thousands of nuclear and chemical weapons, stored in facilities throughout Russia. And as we all know, there are still thousands of nuclear warheads in the Russian arsenal. They present a very profound danger to our security should they fall into the wrong hands and there are many "wrong hands" out there trying to get them. in Russia. The future of Europe will not swing on the status of Kosovo or the establishment of a new Serbia. No,

-Russian economic collapse leads to civil war David, 1999 Professor of Political Science at The Johns Hopkins University, 99 (Title: SAVING AMERICA FROM THE COMING CIVIL WARS , By: David, Steven R., Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Jan/Feb99, Vol. 78, Issue 1Database: Academic Search Elite, EBSCO Host) If internal war does strike Russia, economic deterioration will be a prime cause. From 1989 to the present, the GDP has fallen by 50 percent. In a society where, ten years ago, unemployment scarcely existed, it reached 9.5 percent in 1997 with many economists declaring the true figure to be much higher. Twenty-two percent of Russians live below the official poverty line (earning less than $70 a month). Modern Russia can neither collect taxes (it gathers only half the revenue it is due) nor significantly cut spending. Reformers tout privatization as the country's

cure-all, but in a land without well-defined property rights or contract law and where subsidies remain a way of life, the prospects for transition to an American-style capitalist economy look remote at best. As the massive devaluation of the ruble and the current political crisis show, Russia's condition is even worse than most analysts feared. If conditions get worse, even the stoic Russian people will soon run out of patience.

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Impact Extensions Failure to provide adequate security of nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union makes nuclear proliferation inevitable. Western Morning News, 2007. (staff, October 22, 2007. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008). Mohamed ElBaradei, chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency and chief United Nations nuclear negotiator, has already stated that the current regime makes further proliferation of nuclear arms "virtually inevitable". Dr Fox said:

"Unless the international community develops new controls and ownership of both nuclear fuels and spent fuels and unless there are clear economic incentives for countries to accept this new authority, with the major powers willing to effectively police it, then we are asking for trouble." It is vital for the international community both to secure all existing nuclear facilities - particularly in the former Soviet Union - from terrorists and thieves and to ensure that no new nuclear weapons states emerge, said Dr Fox.

Proliferation causes extinction Taylor '02 (Stuart Jr., Senior Writer with the National Journal and contributing editor at Newsweek, Legai Times, September 16, L/N) < The truth is, no matter what we do about Iraq, if we don't stop proliferation another five or ten potentially unstable nations may go nuclear before long, making it ever more likely that one or more bombs will be set off on our soil by terrorists or terrorist governments. Even an airtight missile defense will be useless against a nuke hidden in a truck, a shipping container, or a boat. Unless we get serious about stopping proliferation, we are headed for "a world filled with nuclear-weapons states where every crisis threatens to go nuclear," where "the survival of civilization truly is in question from day to day," and where "it would be impossible to keep these weapons out of the hands of terrorists, religious cults, and criminal organizations," So writes Ambassador Thomas Graham Jr., a moderate Republican who served as a career armscontroller under six presidents and led the successful Clinton administration effort to extend the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

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Uniqueness: High Oil Prices Don’t Threaten Russian Economic Growth High oil prices allow Russia to be “decoupled” from broader global economic downturns. Tim Wall, 2008 (staff writer, The Moscow Times, January 28, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008). The probability of continued high commodity prices, particularly for oil and gas, as well as strong consumer demand and expanding domestic investment, should allow Russia to "stand out as an economy decoupled from the broader global downturn," Goldman Sachs said in a research note Friday.

Even a US recession would not undermine Russian economic growth. Andrew Kramer, January 26, 2008 (staff writer, The International Herald Tribune, online. Lexis. Accessed, January 27, 2008) Russia stands out as potentially least susceptible to an American recession based on trade, reliance on international capital markets and the degree to which growth is driven by exports. ''Russia is probably more insulated than other BRIC emerging-growth economies,'' said John Thain, the new chief executive of Merrill Lynch, who was visiting Moscow on Wednesday.

Russia’s oil reserves insulate it from a US economic recession. Thomas V. DiBacco, 2008 (staff writer, Orlando Sentinel, February 10, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed February 10, 2008). Yet Russia's economic ties to the U.S. are thin, with only 3 percent of its total exports finding their way to American shores. And as bad economic news ripples throughout the world, causing individuals to shed their investments in the U.S. and elsewhere, Russia in the past four months has chalked up significant inflows of money. If the U.S. economy tanks into a recession, as appears likely, Russia will be isolated from America's woes, thanks to its oil, natural gas and metals.

Russia’s economy is insulated from damage to the U.S. economy. Tim Wall, 2008 (staff writer, The Moscow Times, January 28, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed, February 10, 2008). Yet amid the gloom, Russia's position emerged stronger relative to the coming slowdown or recession in the United States, with officials and analysts from Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on down offering reassurances that high commodity prices would help insulate the Russian economy.

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Impact Extensions: Saudi Arabia United States energy independence will threaten Saudi Arabia’s economy John Cassidy, 2007 (staff writer, December 17, 2007. Online. Internet. Accessed, February 10, 2008, http://www.portfolio.com/views/columns/economics/2007/12/17/Why-Oil-Prices-WillDrop).

Nobody in the oil market—not Wall Street, not Exxon Mobil, not even OPEC—can sustain prohibitively high prices for very long, a point that Sheik Yamani, the Saudi oil minister during the oil price shocks of the '70s and '80s, recognized. "If we force Western governments to invest heavily in finding alternative sources of energy, they will," he said in 1981, shortly after OPEC production cuts caused the price of crude to hit a record of $39.50 a barrel—roughly $100 a barrel in

"This will take them no more than seven to 10 years and will result in their reduced dependence on oil as a source of energy to a point which will jeopardize Saudi Arabia's interests." 2007 dollars.

High oil prices are critical to Saudi Arabia’s ability to check extremism and terrorist groups. J. MICHAEL MCCONNELL, 2008 (Director of National Intelligence, CQ Congressional Testimony, February 27, 2008. Online. Lexis. Accessed, April 18, 2008). SAUDI ARABIA In Saudi Arabia, the long-term challenge from Islamic extremism has been checked for now, and the government benefits from steady, oil price-driven economic growth. Saudi security forces have achieved notable successes against al- Qa'ida networks inside the Kingdom since 2003, killing or capturing alQa'ida's original Saudi-based leadership and degrading its manpower, access to weapons, and operational capability.

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Impact Extensions: Saudi Arabia The impact is extinction. Yonah Alexander, Inter-University for Terrorism Studies Director and Professor, WASHINGTON TIMES, August 28, 2003, p. A20. Last week's brutal suicide bombings in Baghdad and Jerusalem have once again illustrated dramatically that the international community failed, thus far at least, to understand the

magnitude and implications of the terrorist threats to the very survival of civilization itself. Even the United States and Israel have for decades tended to regard terrorism as a mere tactical nuisance or irritant rather than a

critical strategic challenge to their national security concerns. It is not surprising, therefore, that on September 11, 2001, Americans were stunned by the unprecedented tragedy of 19 al Qaeda terrorists striking a devastating blow at the center of the nation's commercial and military powers. Likewise, Israel and its citizens, despite the collapse of the Oslo Agreements of 1993 and numerous acts of terrorism triggered by the second intifada that began almost three years ago, are still "shocked" by each suicide attack at a time of intensive diplomatic efforts to revive the moribund peace process through the now revoked cease-fire arrangements [hudna]. Why are the United States and Israel, as well as scores of other countries affected by the universal nightmare of modern terrorism surprised by new terrorist "surprises"? There are many reasons, including misunderstanding of the manifold specific factors that contribute to terrorism's expansion, such as lack of a universal definition of terrorism, the religionization of politics, double standards of morality, weak punishment of terrorists, and the

Unlike their historical counterparts, contemporary terrorists have introduced a new scale of violence in terms of conventional and unconventional threats and impact. The internationalization and brutalization of current and future terrorism make it clear we have entered an Age of Super Terrorism [e.g. biological, chemical, radiological, nuclear and cyber] with its serious implications concerning national, regional and global security concerns. exploitation of the media by terrorist propaganda and psychological warfare.

Even a single terrorist attack could kill hundreds of thousands of people. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2007 (May 4, 2007. Online. Internet. Accessed on May 11, 2007. http://www.ucsusa. org/global_security/nuclear_terrorism/)

Of all the terrorist threats facing the United States and the world, perhaps the gravest is the possibility of terrorists constructing or obtaining a nuclear weapon and detonating it in a city. If a terrorist group exploded just one nuclear weapon, hundreds of thousands of people could die. Because there is no effective protection against a nuclear blast, the only real solution is to prevent terrorists from obtaining nuclear bomb materials or weapons in the first place.

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*****Affirmative Answers***** Non-Unique: Russian oil industry declining now: Vincent Gioia, 6/7/2008 (staff, http://www.nationalledger.com/artman/publish/article_272620959.shtm l) The Russian oil industry, for example, announced that production had fallen 1% in the first quarter of 2008. According to the Russian energy ministry, oil production for the full year could be lower than in 2007. Any decline would mark a huge reversal. Russian production has grown steadily over the past 10 years, and in its supply-and-demand projections the International Energy Agency has been counting on growth in Russian production of 5% by 2012 to offset big declines in older fields in the North Sea and Mexico.

No Link: Russia can’t meet rising oil demand: Vincent Gioia, 6/7/2008 (staff, http://www.nationalledger.com/artman/publish/article_272620959.shtm l) The International Energy Agency now estimates that worldwide production from older existing fields is now falling each year by about 4.5 million barrels a day. To stay even, let alone to meet rising demand from the new automobile drivers of Russia, China and other countries, the world has to increase annual production by 4.5 million barrels a day.

Turn: Russian oil profits embolden Putin—risking nuclear attacks against Russia’s neighbors: David Wood, 6/16/2008 (staff, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/balte.oilwar16jun16,0,4511744.story?page=1) Russia is taking in an extra $11.4 billion a month above its normal oil revenues, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Russia's state-controlled oil firm, Rosneft, just reported that its revenues have tripled over those a year ago. That can only strengthen the confidence of Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin, analysts said. Putin has resisted the Iran sanctions, is rolling back democratic reforms at home and has threatened his neighbors with nuclear attacks and cut-offs of energy supplies.

Turn: High oil prices risk conflict around the globe: David Wood, 6/16/2008 (staff, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/balte.oilwar16jun16,0,4511744.story?page=1)

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With oil bringing in unexpected cash, "there's more on the table, more at stake, and therefore there's a stronger incentive for people to try to tilt the rules in their favor," said Victor. "Heightened oil prices probably intensify the odds of conflict." The sudden infusion of oil money in places like Myanmar, Sudan and Azerbaijan can drive those governments to become more authoritarian. The revenue also tends to insulate them from pressures to tolerate dissidents and political opposition, and can foster corruption. The cash earned by Sudan from its oil sales to a petroleum-hungry China, for example, makes it more resistant to Western economic sanctions intended to pressure Sudan to stop its murderous violence in the Darfur region. And it makes China less willing to jeopardize that oil source by joining in the sanctions, according to

In a new study of oil and conflict, Ross found that suddenly rising oil wealth tends to trigger or sustain conflict. UCLA political scientist Michael L. Ross.

Affirmative Answers Turn: Iran A) High oil prices are fueling Iranian nuclearization: David Wood, 6/16/2008 (staff, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/balte.oilwar16jun16,0,4511744.story?page=1) WASHINGTON - Filling up at the gas pump isn't just financially painful. Paying $4 a gallon also is creating headaches for the United States that are likely to spark new fighting overseas and to aggravate old conflicts. Iran, which trains, arms and finances terrorists across the Middle East, is raking in an extra $4 billion a month thanks to the increased price of oil. That money may show up as sophisticated new roadside bombs in Iraq or as rockets raining down on Israel, experts say. The cascade of cash also gives Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad extra protection against the economic sanctions the U.S. is hoping will force Iran to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons.

B) Iranian nuclearization risks a nuclear war with Israel: Nile Gardiner, 2006 (Bernard and Barbara Lomas Fellow @ Heritage Foundation, April 24, http://www.heritage.org/Research/MiddleEast/wm1047.cfm) If Iran succeeds in building a nuclear weapon, which it may do within three to ten years, there can be no doubt regarding the regime’s willingness and intent to use it against Israel or other close U.S. allies. Nor is there any doubt regarding Iran’s potential to arm a terrorist organization such as Hezbollah or Al Qaeda with nuclear material. Significantly, a senior Iranian spiritual leader recently issued a fatwa sanctioning the use of nuclear weapons.[4]

Non-unique: Russian oil production is declining now: Shigeru Sato and Yuji Okada, 6/25/2008 (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=am42p9xBTXh4& refer=home)

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Russia, a non-OPEC producer and the world's biggest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, faces its first annual decline in production in a decade. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin pledged to reduce taxation on the industry to stimulate investment in aging fields and new regions. Output fell 0.9 percent to 9.76 million barrels a day in the first five months of the year. ``Growth last quarter fell on a year-on-year basis, and this has to do with the policies implemented over the prior year to raise taxes on oil industries,'' Sieminski said. ``This

made it difficult for

foreign capital to come in.

Turn: oil profits risk war: David Wood, 6/16/2008 (staff, http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/balte.oilwar16jun16,0,4511744.story?page=1) The United States can't stop buying oil from tyrants or insurgents, and it already has its hands full with existing conflicts in oil countries - in Iraq, for example. Ross suggests requiring the oil companies to make public the source of their oil.

Helping countries escape "the oil curse will not be easy," Ross concludes, and the number of oil-based conflicts "is likely to grow in the future." Drivers at the pump might chose between oil from Iran, say, or Burma or Venezuela.