Rupee Apprecitation And Its Impact
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- Pages: 34
LOGO
The Rising Rupee
Group 14: Jaimin,
Kshitij, Ashutosh & Rajat
Contents
1
The Rupee’s rise and it’s impact
2
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further ?
3
Why the Rupee needs to weaken ?
4
Conclusion
The Rising Rupee
The possible reasons Inflation
Increase in PPP
Interest Rates
Higher return relative to other countries
Increase in foreign inflows
Country spending more on foreign trade than it is earning
Borrows capital from foreign sources to cover deficit
Current Account Deficits Market forces behind Exchange Rates, e
Public Debt
Terms of Trade
Political stability & economic performance
Country becomes less attractive to foreign investors
Greater demand for a country’s exports & increasing revenues from exports Capital inflows into the country
e strengthens
Country’s debt rating reduces
e strengthens
Excess demand for foreign currency
e weakens
e weakens
e strengthens
e strengthens
The Rising Rupee
Is history for or against it?
Dutch Disease
Dutch Disease
• The appreciation of the local currency in a sudden spurge • Past instances in countries like Columbia ?
• Is India a victim ?
The Rising Rupee
The Impact
The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
Capital Inflows • $16 billion in 2006 – 07 • Banking, Telecom, Insurance, Retail, Airlines
• $32 billion over last 4 years • $4.6 billion in first 5 months of 2007
• $12.1 billion in first half of 2006 • Financing of acquisitions at home & abroad
FIIs
FDIs
ECBs
NRIs • $3.8 billion last year • Remittances @ $19.6 billion in first half of 2006 The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
RBI’s dilemma
Supply of Currency
Demand for currency
Market Volatility
Exchange Rate
Money supply / inflation gets affected
RBI intervenes in FOREX markets
Volatility in Market
The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
The Impossible Trinity
The Rising Rupee
The Impact
The Rising Rupee
Is history for or against it?
Earlier Devaluations
• 1966 1983 (7.8) 2002 (49) • Rate of growth of exports < Rate of growth of imports
• Japanese exporters cut export prices • Shifted domestic production to high value The Appreciating items (Lexus of Toyota & Infiniti of Nissan) Yen (1990s) • Shifted foreign production to commodity – type products
The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
Rupee appreciation needs to be allowed to control inflation
Reduced Production Cost Inflation and USD/INR
Trade Deficit
52
Government External Debt
2.00%
51
Inflation (Base Year: 1993 - 94)
50
USD/INR
1.60%
Reduced Foreign Debts
Cheaper Imported Goods
USD/INR
47
Foreign Acquisition
1.20%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Inflation (Base Year: 1993 - 94))
48
0.80% 46 45 0.40% 44 43
Import based foreign investments
Inflation (MoM basis)
49
0.00%
42 41
-0.40%
40
Aug-07
Jun-07
Apr-07
Feb-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
Aug-06
Jun-06
Apr-06
Feb-06
Dec-05
Oct-05
Aug-05
-0.80%
Jun-05
Rupee denominated
39
Apr-05
Sterilization
International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
On a REER basis, the Indian rupee is estimated to have depreciated to around 99 in 2006 – 07 down from its peak of 102 in July 2005
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
REER Base Year: 1993 - 94 103
Government External Debt 102
Reduced Foreign Debts
REER
Foreign Acquisition
101 100 99
Cheaper Imported Goods 98
Import based foreign investments Sterilization
97 96 2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation
Reduced prices of imported raw material like oil & steel
Rupee is no longer overvalued
Hence, reduced cost of production
Reduced Production Cost
India (Imports) 250000
Trade Deficit
Others
Government External Debt
200000
Capital
Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments
Imports in $ million
Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition
Iron and Steel
150000
Gold Silver and Pearls
Petroleum Crude and Products 100000
50000
Sterilization 0
Rupee denominated
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
A stronger rupee would ensure that the trade deficit is kept in check despite rising oil prices
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
A 10% rise in the rupee, causes an equivalent decrease in India’s external debt.
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
Year
External Debt of (Rs. Crore)
2005
5,39,389
2006
5,64,280
2007P
6,75,857
Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt
The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
Many large companies that have borrowed money abroad in recent years are likely to benefit from the strong rupee
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
With foreign acquisitions expected to grow in the coming years, the strengthened rupee would prove to be an added advantage
Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisitions Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Cheaper consumable goods • Consumer electronics • Apparels
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization
Cheaper travel abroad • Students • Tourists
Reduced R&D expenses • Automobile • Electronic & Electrical goods
Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
• Sterilization is the reduction of interest rates to curb inflation as well as maintain a relatively constant exchange rate amidst increasing capital inflows
• RBI can buy up the excess rupees by issuing bonds (MSS) or increase the CRR • However, in India’s case, further sterilization would prove to be infeasible
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Due to an appreciating rupee, people all over the globe, are getting attracted to this currency Under such circumstances the government, is working fast on a scheme to issue rupee denominated international debt. The proposal has been mooted by the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and is being discussed by policy makers at a higher level
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50.00
45.00
The IT Imbroglio
$250.00 Exchange Rate
40.00
$200.00
35.00
30.00
$150.00
FIIs on the move
USD / INR
25.00 $100.00
10.00
$50.00
20.00 15.00
5.00 0.00
$0.00 1950-51 1952-53 1954-55 1956-57 1958-59 1960-61 1962-63 1964-65 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
•
Exports and Exporters
•
Around 30% of the share of exports to be affected More than 86% of exports in USD
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves FII Inflows and USD/INR 25000
20000
The IT Imbroglio
15000
52
FII Inflows (Rs. Crore)
Exports and Exporters
FII in Rupees Cr.
51
USD/INR
50 49 48 47
10000
FIIs on the move
5000
45 44
Jul-07
Jun-07
Apr-07
May-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
Apr-06
May-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
Apr-05
May-05
0
USD/INR
46
43 42
-5000
Job Losses
41 40
-10000
39 -15000
38
Month - on - Month
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
• Textile and cotton industries • Exporters considering to layoff 275000 workers by year end
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
• Erosion of competitiveness • Business shift to countries with lower value of exchange rate
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Steps taken by RBI !
Encouraging Higher Dollar Spend Restrictions on ECB
Continuous Intervention
Tax SOPs and Promotion
Rupee Depreciation
Raising Investment limit in overseas Ventures
The Rising Rupee
Conclusion
The nation has seen a growth and the economy is rising
India is attracting a large amount of capital inflows Dealing with these inflows is difficult Intervening to defend the exchange rate can help reserve export competitiveness, but it can endanger the inflation target (Impossible Trinity!!)
The Rising Rupee
LOGO
Your queries are welcome
RBI’s dilemma
Supply of Currency
Demand for currency
Market Volatility
Exchange Rate
Money supply / inflation gets affected
RBI intervenes in FOREX markets
Volatility in Market
The Rising Rupee
Capital Inflows • $16 billion in 2006 – 07 • Banking, Telecom, Insurance, Retail, Airlines
• $32 billion over last 4 years • $4.6 billion in first 5 months of 2007
• $12.1 billion in first half of 2006 • Financing of acquisitions at home & abroad
FIIs
FDIs
ECBs
NRIs • $3.8 billion last year • Remittances @ $19.6 billion in first half of 2006 The Rising Rupee
The Impossible Trinity
The Rising Rupee
The Rising Rupee
Group 14: Jaimin,
Kshitij, Ashutosh & Rajat
Contents
1
The Rupee’s rise and it’s impact
2
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further ?
3
Why the Rupee needs to weaken ?
4
Conclusion
The Rising Rupee
The possible reasons Inflation
Increase in PPP
Interest Rates
Higher return relative to other countries
Increase in foreign inflows
Country spending more on foreign trade than it is earning
Borrows capital from foreign sources to cover deficit
Current Account Deficits Market forces behind Exchange Rates, e
Public Debt
Terms of Trade
Political stability & economic performance
Country becomes less attractive to foreign investors
Greater demand for a country’s exports & increasing revenues from exports Capital inflows into the country
e strengthens
Country’s debt rating reduces
e strengthens
Excess demand for foreign currency
e weakens
e weakens
e strengthens
e strengthens
The Rising Rupee
Is history for or against it?
Dutch Disease
Dutch Disease
• The appreciation of the local currency in a sudden spurge • Past instances in countries like Columbia ?
• Is India a victim ?
The Rising Rupee
The Impact
The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
Capital Inflows • $16 billion in 2006 – 07 • Banking, Telecom, Insurance, Retail, Airlines
• $32 billion over last 4 years • $4.6 billion in first 5 months of 2007
• $12.1 billion in first half of 2006 • Financing of acquisitions at home & abroad
FIIs
FDIs
ECBs
NRIs • $3.8 billion last year • Remittances @ $19.6 billion in first half of 2006 The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
RBI’s dilemma
Supply of Currency
Demand for currency
Market Volatility
Exchange Rate
Money supply / inflation gets affected
RBI intervenes in FOREX markets
Volatility in Market
The Rising Rupee
What actually happened! FY06: Economic growth spurted to 9%
Supply shortages + Excess Demand
RBI hikes interest rate
RBI intervenes (absorbs dollars)
Capital inflows surge (FIIs, FDIs, ECBs, Remittances)
Firms turn abroad to borrow funds
Money supply, Inflation increase
Impossible Trinity (M – F model)
Rupee appreciates against backdrop of US meltdown
The Rising Rupee
The Impossible Trinity
The Rising Rupee
The Impact
The Rising Rupee
Is history for or against it?
Earlier Devaluations
• 1966 1983 (7.8) 2002 (49) • Rate of growth of exports < Rate of growth of imports
• Japanese exporters cut export prices • Shifted domestic production to high value The Appreciating items (Lexus of Toyota & Infiniti of Nissan) Yen (1990s) • Shifted foreign production to commodity – type products
The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
Rupee appreciation needs to be allowed to control inflation
Reduced Production Cost Inflation and USD/INR
Trade Deficit
52
Government External Debt
2.00%
51
Inflation (Base Year: 1993 - 94)
50
USD/INR
1.60%
Reduced Foreign Debts
Cheaper Imported Goods
USD/INR
47
Foreign Acquisition
1.20%
2 per. Mov. Avg. (Inflation (Base Year: 1993 - 94))
48
0.80% 46 45 0.40% 44 43
Import based foreign investments
Inflation (MoM basis)
49
0.00%
42 41
-0.40%
40
Aug-07
Jun-07
Apr-07
Feb-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
Aug-06
Jun-06
Apr-06
Feb-06
Dec-05
Oct-05
Aug-05
-0.80%
Jun-05
Rupee denominated
39
Apr-05
Sterilization
International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
On a REER basis, the Indian rupee is estimated to have depreciated to around 99 in 2006 – 07 down from its peak of 102 in July 2005
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
REER Base Year: 1993 - 94 103
Government External Debt 102
Reduced Foreign Debts
REER
Foreign Acquisition
101 100 99
Cheaper Imported Goods 98
Import based foreign investments Sterilization
97 96 2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation
Reduced prices of imported raw material like oil & steel
Rupee is no longer overvalued
Hence, reduced cost of production
Reduced Production Cost
India (Imports) 250000
Trade Deficit
Others
Government External Debt
200000
Capital
Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments
Imports in $ million
Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition
Iron and Steel
150000
Gold Silver and Pearls
Petroleum Crude and Products 100000
50000
Sterilization 0
Rupee denominated
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
A stronger rupee would ensure that the trade deficit is kept in check despite rising oil prices
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
A 10% rise in the rupee, causes an equivalent decrease in India’s external debt.
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
Year
External Debt of (Rs. Crore)
2005
5,39,389
2006
5,64,280
2007P
6,75,857
Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt
The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued
Many large companies that have borrowed money abroad in recent years are likely to benefit from the strong rupee
Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit
With foreign acquisitions expected to grow in the coming years, the strengthened rupee would prove to be an added advantage
Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisitions Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Cheaper consumable goods • Consumer electronics • Apparels
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization
Cheaper travel abroad • Students • Tourists
Reduced R&D expenses • Automobile • Electronic & Electrical goods
Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
• Sterilization is the reduction of interest rates to curb inflation as well as maintain a relatively constant exchange rate amidst increasing capital inflows
• RBI can buy up the excess rupees by issuing bonds (MSS) or increase the CRR • However, in India’s case, further sterilization would prove to be infeasible
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to appreciate further? Addressing Inflation Rupee is no longer overvalued Reduced Production Cost
Trade Deficit Government External Debt Reduced Foreign Debts
Due to an appreciating rupee, people all over the globe, are getting attracted to this currency Under such circumstances the government, is working fast on a scheme to issue rupee denominated international debt. The proposal has been mooted by the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and is being discussed by policy makers at a higher level
Foreign Acquisition Cheaper Imported Goods
Import based foreign investments Sterilization Rupee denominated International debt The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
Foreign Exchange Reserves 50.00
45.00
The IT Imbroglio
$250.00 Exchange Rate
40.00
$200.00
35.00
30.00
$150.00
FIIs on the move
USD / INR
25.00 $100.00
10.00
$50.00
20.00 15.00
5.00 0.00
$0.00 1950-51 1952-53 1954-55 1956-57 1958-59 1960-61 1962-63 1964-65 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83 1984-85 1986-87 1988-89 1990-91 1992-93 1994-95 1996-97 1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
•
Exports and Exporters
•
Around 30% of the share of exports to be affected More than 86% of exports in USD
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves FII Inflows and USD/INR 25000
20000
The IT Imbroglio
15000
52
FII Inflows (Rs. Crore)
Exports and Exporters
FII in Rupees Cr.
51
USD/INR
50 49 48 47
10000
FIIs on the move
5000
45 44
Jul-07
Jun-07
Apr-07
May-07
Feb-07
Mar-07
Jan-07
Dec-06
Oct-06
Nov-06
Sep-06
Aug-06
Jul-06
Jun-06
Apr-06
May-06
Feb-06
Mar-06
Jan-06
Dec-05
Oct-05
Nov-05
Sep-05
Aug-05
Jul-05
Jun-05
Apr-05
May-05
0
USD/INR
46
43 42
-5000
Job Losses
41 40
-10000
39 -15000
38
Month - on - Month
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
• Textile and cotton industries • Exporters considering to layoff 275000 workers by year end
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Why the Rupee needs to depreciate? Forex Reserves
Exports and Exporters
• Erosion of competitiveness • Business shift to countries with lower value of exchange rate
The IT Imbroglio
FIIs on the move
Job Losses
Loss of Business The Rising Rupee
Steps taken by RBI !
Encouraging Higher Dollar Spend Restrictions on ECB
Continuous Intervention
Tax SOPs and Promotion
Rupee Depreciation
Raising Investment limit in overseas Ventures
The Rising Rupee
Conclusion
The nation has seen a growth and the economy is rising
India is attracting a large amount of capital inflows Dealing with these inflows is difficult Intervening to defend the exchange rate can help reserve export competitiveness, but it can endanger the inflation target (Impossible Trinity!!)
The Rising Rupee
LOGO
Your queries are welcome
RBI’s dilemma
Supply of Currency
Demand for currency
Market Volatility
Exchange Rate
Money supply / inflation gets affected
RBI intervenes in FOREX markets
Volatility in Market
The Rising Rupee
Capital Inflows • $16 billion in 2006 – 07 • Banking, Telecom, Insurance, Retail, Airlines
• $32 billion over last 4 years • $4.6 billion in first 5 months of 2007
• $12.1 billion in first half of 2006 • Financing of acquisitions at home & abroad
FIIs
FDIs
ECBs
NRIs • $3.8 billion last year • Remittances @ $19.6 billion in first half of 2006 The Rising Rupee
The Impossible Trinity
The Rising Rupee
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