Royal Bank Of Scotland Research Report - Icbc

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Equity | China | Banks

Produced and issued by: ABN AMRO Bank NV Hong Kong Branch+

22 September 2009

ICBC

Change of recommendation

Buy (from Hold)

Strong internal capital generation

Target price

We think ICBC shares should outperform peers in the environment of tightening liquidity and higher CAR requirement. ICBC has a high RoRWA due to its low offbalance sheet exposure and an estimated Rmb3trn positive balance sheet gap to rising interest rate. We upgrade our rating to Buy from Hold.

HK$6.81 (from HK$5.59) Price

HK$6.16 Short term (0-60 days)

n/a Market relative to region

Key forecasts

Overweight

Reported PTP (Rmbm)

Price performance

Reported net profit (Rmbm)

(1M)

(3M)

(12M)

Price (HK$)

5.32

5.13

4.02

Absolute (%)

FY07A

FY08A

FY09F

FY10F

FY11F

115,378

145,376

156,379

186,723

217,570

81,520

110,841

119,969

145,135

169,119

Reported EPS

0.24

0.33

0.36

0.43

0.51

Normalised EPS

0.24

0.33

0.36

0.43

0.51

Dividend per share

0.13

0.16

0.18

0.22

0.25

22.20

16.40

15.10

12.50

10.70 2.13

15.8

20.1

53.2

Rel market (%)

6.9

1.6

23.1

Normalised PE (x)

Rel sector (%)

10.2

10.7

38.6

Price/book value (x)

3.37

3.01

2.70

2.40

Dividend yield (%)

2.45

3.04

3.31

4.00

4.66

16.10

19.30

18.70

20.10

20.70

Oct 06 10

Oct 07

Oct 08

Return on avg equity (%) Accounting standard: IFRS Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

8 6

year to Dec, fully diluted

Highest RoRWA (or internal capital generation rate) in the sector alongside CCB

4 2 1398.HK

HSCEI

Market capitalisation

HK$2.06t (US$265.47bn) Average (12M) daily turnover

HK$1977.82m (US$254.97m) RIC: 1398.HK, 1398 HK Priced at close of business 18 Sep 2009. Source: Bloomberg

ICBC’s RoRWA of 2.59% in 1H09 (annualised) is similar to CCB’s 2.46%, but higher than other H-share banks’ 1.6-2.1%, mainly due to its lower off-balance-sheet and market-riskrelated RWA (9% of RWA vs peers’ 11-23%), reflecting its Rmb-/fee-income driven model. Current CAR can sustain high-teens loan growth given high internal capital generation Assuming 27%/14%/14% loan growth for 2009-11 and a 50% payout, we estimate Tier 1 and the total CAR will remain fairly constant – from 9.97% and 12.09% (as of 1H09) to 9.9% and 12.83% by end-2011 – well above the regulator’s 7% and 10% requirement. If the Tier 1 CAR were to run down to 9%, we estimate loan growth could rise to 17% in 2010-11. 1H09 results recap: strong earnings, despite a weak margin, due to good asset quality ICBC reported a 2.9% yoy and 43.4% hoh rise in 1H09 net profit to Rmb66.424bn, 0.3% above our estimates. Pre-provision profit dropped 6.6% yoy due to a 76bp drop in margin to 2.25% (management said July NIM was similar to 1H09 NIM), but net fee income rose a robust 13.3%. The net NPL downgrade of Rmb3.2bn was similar to FY08’s Rmb7.6bn. Credit cost was low at 37bp and NPL coverage rose to 138%, as the NPL balance dropped 4% ytd. Upgrading to Buy on laggard performance ytd and strong internal capital generation

Analysts Sally Ng, CFA Hong Kong +852 2700 5160 [email protected]

Irene Huang Hong Kong +852 2700 5839 [email protected]

38/F Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong http://www.abnamroresearch.com

We maintain our 2009F EPS with the company targeting to raise NPL coverage to 150% by end-2009, but raise our 2010-11F EPS 3-4% on a better margin outlook – we build in a 54bp hike in lending and time deposit rates in 2010. We raise our target price to HK$6.81 after rolling over our valuation to end-2010 from mid-2010 and lift our structural ROE forecast (target 2.69x P/TCE). ICBC’s current one-year forward P/TCE, PE and P/PPOP of 2.54x, 13.2x, 9.9x are 9%, 4%, 12% above historical averages of 2.34x, 12.7x, 8.8x, respectively. Key risk: potential share overhang as the lock-up period for Allianz and American Express’ 3.854bn shares in ICBC expires on 20 October 2009. This note should be read along with our sector report (At the crossroads: growth vs capital, 22 September 2009) for a better understanding of the investment argument. Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. + ABN AMRO group companies are subsidiary undertakings of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc.

Table 1 : NPL migration analysis Rmbm Starting NPL

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

2011F

1H09

n.a.

824,648

784,656

154,417

137,745

111,774

104,482

97,164

103,649

104,482

(+) Downgrade [gross new NPL formation]

n.a.

77,551

60,899

42,651

34,029

52,308

64,516

76,687

87,075

29,900

(-) Upgrade & recoveries

n.a.

(60,537)

(28,589)

(44,700)

(46,863)

(44,693)

(52,738)

(47,464)

(46,277)

(26,724)

--Upgrade

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

(17,300)

(25,775)

(18,693)

--Recoveries

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

(27,400)

(21,088)

(26,000)

Net new NPL formation

n.a.

17,014

32,310

(2,049)

(12,834)

7,615

11,778

29,223

40,797

(-) Transfer out

n.a.

(5,930) (635,002)

(3,479)

(4,966)

(2,534)

(1,774)

(1,951)

(2,146)

(194)

(-) Write-off

n.a.

(11,144)

(8,171)

(12,373)

(17,322)

(20,787)

(22,865)

(8,276)

97,164

103,649

119,435

98,665

(+/-) Exchange difference & others Ending NPL Gross loans

(51,076)

(27,547)

0

0

0

0

0

0

824,648

784,656

154,417

137,745

111,774

104,482

(15,174) (11,550) 3,176

(523)

3,402,277 3,707,748 3,289,553 3,631,171 4,073,229 4,571,994 5,750,513 6,519,424 7,412,541 5,436,469

Gross new NPL formation (overall) Upgrade/recoveries Net new NPL formation

2.18%

1.74%

1.23%

0.88%

1.21%

1.25%

1.25%

1.25%

1.26%

-1.70%

-0.82%

-1.29%

-1.22%

-1.03%

-1.02%

-0.77%

-0.66%

-1.12%

0.48%

0.92%

-0.06%

-0.33%

0.18%

0.23%

0.48%

0.59%

0.13%

Source: ABN AMRO forecasts, Company data

Table 2 : Earnings revisions 2009F Rmbm

2010F

2011F

Old

New

Chg %

Old

New

Chg %

Old

New

Net interest income

240,896

240,893

(0.0)

277,547

290,433

4.6

325,351

340,548

4.7

Non-interest income

57,676

57,064

(1.1)

62,057

61,368

(1.1)

74,091

73,298

(1.1) 2.6

Operating costs

Chg %

(113,445)

(113,952)

0.4

(127,493)

(130,703)

2.5

(146,942)

(150,832)

PPOP

185,127

184,005

(0.6)

212,111

221,099

4.2

252,499

263,014

4.2

Provisions

(29,241)

(30,098)

2.9

(35,396)

(37,219)

5.2

(44,225)

(48,714)

10.2

Net profit

121,493

119,969

(1.3)

139,547

145,135

4.0

164,419

169,119

2.9

0.36

0.36

(1.3)

0.42

0.43

4.0

0.49

0.51

2.9

EPS (Rmb) Source: ABN AMRO forecasts

Table 3 : Capital adequacy ratio analysis Rmbm

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

2011F

1H09

Core capital: Share capital Reserves Minority interests Total core capital

248,000

334,019

334,019

334,019

334,020

334,020

334,020

334,019

5,444

125,523

148,631

205,668

267,848

352,999

449,550

243,347

4,037

4,537

5,305

3,955

6,428

9,271

12,541

4,504

257,481

464,079

487,955

543,642

608,296

696,289

796,111

581,870

21,846

33,645

47,979

82,834

103,509

117,350

133,426

88,739

1,005

0

0

0

0

0

35,000

35,000

35,000

35,000

75,000

83,000

113,000

35,000

0

11,669

4,164

2,952

2,952

2,952

2,952

56,846

69,650

94,648

121,998

181,461

203,302

249,378

126,691

Supplementary capital: General provision Reserve for net change in FV of AFS investments Subordinated debts Other Total supplementary capital Total capital base before deductions

314,327

533,729

582,603

665,640

789,757

899,591

1,045,489

708,561

Deductions:

(2,483)

(2,924)

(5,862)

(45,607)

(57,566)

(57,566)

(57,566)

(44,233)

Unconsolidated equity investments

(1,176)

(1,729)

(3,868)

(19,499)

(17,783)

(17,783)

(17,783)

(17,783)

Goodwill

(1,307)

(1,195)

(1,878)

(20,579)

(23,581)

(23,581)

(23,581)

(23,581)

(116)

(5,529)

(2,869)

(2,869)

(2,869)

(2,869)

(13,333)

(13,333)

(13,333)

Other Holding of other banks' sub debts Net capital base

311,844

530,805

576,741

620,033

732,191

842,025

987,922

Core capital base after deductions

255,586

462,020

484,085

510,549

574,389

662,382

762,204

549,398

Total shareholder's equity

259,876

471,001

543,676

606,630

677,651

765,644

865,466

620,441

Risk weighted assets (after market risk)

664,328

3,152,206

3,779,170

4,405,345

4,748,893

5,973,011

6,771,673

7,699,346

5,494,937

RWA as % Assets

48.83%

50.33%

50.73%

48.67%

49.28%

49.72%

50.31%

48.05%

Loans as % Assets

50.95%

48.36%

46.91%

46.86%

47.44%

47.87%

48.44%

47.50%

Tier 1 CAR

8.11%

12.23%

10.99%

10.75%

9.62%

9.78%

9.90%

9.97%

Total CAR

9.89%

14.05%

13.09%

13.06%

12.26%

12.43%

12.83%

12.09%

Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

ICBC | Performance and Valuation | 22 September 2009

2

Income statement Rmbm

FY07A

FY08A

FY09F

FY10F

FY11F

Net interest income Non-interest income Total income Operating costs Goodwill (amort/impaired) Other costs Pre-prov operating profit Provisions charges Post-prov op prof Associates (pre-tax) Exceptionals (pre-tax) Other pre-tax items Reported PTP Taxation Minority interests Preference dividends Other post-tax items Reported net profit

224465 29718 254183 -95168 0.00 -9492 149523 -33061 116462 16.0 n/a -1100 115378 -33124 -734.0 n/a 0.00 81520

263037 29057 292094 -103145 0.00 -8190 180759 -36512 144247 1978 n/a -849.0 145376 -34150 -385.0 n/a 0.00 110841

240893 57064 297957 -104943 0.00 -9009 184005 -30098 153907 2473 n/a 0.00 156379 -35967 -442.8 n/a 0.00 119969

290433 61368 351802 -120793 0.00 -9910 221099 -37219 183880 2843 n/a 0.00 186723 -41079 -509.2 n/a -0.01 145135

340548 73298 413846 -139931 0.00 -10901 263014 -48714 214300 3270 n/a 0.00 217570 -47865 -585.5 n/a 0.00 169119

Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

year to Dec

Balance sheet Rmbm Net loans to customers Other int earn assets Goodwill Oth non-int earn assets Total assets Total customer deposits Oth int-bearing liabs Non int-bearing liab Total liabilities Share capital Reserves Total equity (excl min) Minority interests Total liab & sh equity Risk weighted assets Est non-perf loans Specific provisions General provisions

FY07A

FY08A

FY09F

FY10F

FY11F

3957542 4486189 1420 199438 8683712 6898413 1049834 191789 8140036 334019 204352 538371 5305 8683712 4405345 111774 -58944 -56743

4436011 5033165 20579 227366 9757146 8223446 694194 232876 9150516 334019 268656 602675 3955 9757146 4748893 104482 -54059 -81924

5603528 6232660 4833 234032 12121482 10032604 1172633 238594 11443831 334020 337203 671223 6428 12121482 5973011 97164 -43475 -103509

6357959 6952506 4833 250004 13619159 11336843 1253721 262951 12853515 334020 422354 756374 9271 13619159 6771673 103649 -44116 -117350

7227373 7741701 4833 267645 15304026 12810632 1337915 290013 14438561 334020 518905 852925 12541 15304026 7699347 119435 -51742 -133426

Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

year ended Dec

Capital Rmbm Risk weighted assets Reported net profit Opening risk assets Closing risk assets Change in risk assets Capital required Free capital flow Ordinary dividend paid Share buy back/spec div Equity / preference issue Cash flow from financing Net capital flow Tier 1 capital Tier 1 capital ratio (%) Lines in bold can be derived from the immediately preceding lines. Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

ICBC | Key Financial Data | 22 September 2009

FY07A

FY08A

FY09F

FY10F

FY11F

4405345 81520 3779170 4405345 626175 50094 31426 -44425 n/a n/a -44425 -12999 484085 11.0

4748893 110841 4405345 4748893 343548 27484 83357 -55113 n/a n/a -55113 28244 510549 10.8

5973011 119969 4748893 5973011 1224118 97929 22040 -59985 n/a n/a -59985 -37945 574389 9.62

6771673 145135 5973011 6771673 798662 63893 81242 -72567 n/a n/a -72567 8674 662382 9.78

7699347 169119 6771673 7699347 927673 74214 94905 -84559 n/a n/a -84559 10346 762204 9.90 year to Dec

Standard ratios Performance

ICBC

Bank of China

FY07A FY08A FY09F FY10F FY11F

Non-int inc/gr op inc (%) Cost/income (%) Costs/average assets (%) Net income growth (%) Net cust loan growth (%) Cust deposit growth (%) Net interest margin (%) Return on avg assets (%) Return on avg equity (%) RORWA (%)

11.7 41.2 1.29 64.9 12.0 9.04 2.80 1.02 16.1 1.99

9.95 38.1 1.21 35.2 12.1 19.2 2.95 1.21 19.3 2.42

19.2 38.2 1.04 8.26 26.3 22.0 2.32 1.10 18.7 2.24

17.4 37.2 1.02 21.0 13.5 13.0 2.42 1.13 20.1 2.28

17.7 36.4 1.04 16.5 13.7 13.0 2.52 1.17 20.7 2.34

FY09F FY10F FY11F 25.9 42.5 1.19 14.5 37.5 27.8 2.07 0.98 15.1 1.57

year to Dec

Valuation Normalised EPS growth (%) Reported PE (x) Normalised PE (x) Price/book value (x) Price/adjusted BVPS (x) Dividend yield (%)

38.8 22.2 22.2 3.37 n/a 2.45

36.0 16.4 16.4 3.01 n/a 3.04

8.24 15.1 15.1 2.70 n/a 3.31

21.0 12.5 12.5 2.40 n/a 4.00

16.5 10.7 10.7 2.13 n/a 4.66

year to Dec

Per share data Tot adj dil sh, ave (m) Pre-prov prof/share Reported EPS Normalised EPS Book value per sh Dividend per share Dividend cover (x)

FY07A FY08A FY09F FY10F FY11F 334019 334019 334019 334019 334019 0.45 0.54 0.55 0.66 0.79 0.24 0.33 0.36 0.43 0.51 0.24 0.33 0.36 0.43 0.51 1.61 1.80 2.01 2.26 2.55 0.13 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.25 1.84 2.01 2.00 2.00 2.00 year to Dec

China Construction Bank

25.5 39.2 1.13 19.1 14.3 13.2 2.16 1.00 16.5 1.51

25.8 36.7 1.11 19.6 14.6 13.8 2.24 1.08 17.9 1.59

FY09F

FY10F

FY11F

17.0 40.1 1.22 11.1 25.9 25.0 2.57 1.21 20.7 2.18

16.2 36.6 1.15 28.6 13.5 14.0 2.71 1.30 23.4 2.35

16.1 35.5 1.14 14.4 13.9 14.0 2.79 1.31 23.4 2.37

year to Dec

12.7 13.7 13.6 1.98 n/a 3.66

18.6 11.5 11.5 1.81 n/a 3.91

19.9 9.60 9.57 1.63 n/a 4.69

year to Dec

Solvency Tier 1 capital ratio (%) Total CAR (%) Equity/assets (%) Net cust loans/dep (%) Rep NPL/gr cus adv (%) Tot prov/rep NPLs (%) Bad debts/advances (%)

year to Dec

11.1 13.0 13.0 2.55 n/a 3.86

28.6 10.1 10.1 2.21 n/a 4.96

14.4 8.82 8.82 1.94 n/a 5.67

year to Dec

FY07A FY08A FY09F FY10F FY11F 11.0 10.8 9.62 9.78 9.90 13.1 13.1 12.5 12.6 13.0 6.20 6.18 5.54 5.55 5.57 57.4 53.9 55.9 56.1 56.4 2.74 2.29 1.69 1.59 1.61 103.5 130.1 151.3 155.8 155.0 0.81 0.80 0.52 0.57 0.66 year to Dec

Priced as follows: 1398.HK - HK$6.16; 3988.HK - HK$4.43; 0939.HK - HK$6.48 Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

Valuation methodology - Gordon growth model ROE

16.40%

COE

11.25%

Payout ratio

50%

Long term growth

8.2%

Derived multiple (x)

2.69x

End-2010F TCE per share (Rmb)

2.22

Target price (HK$)

6.81

Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts

ICBC | Performance and Valuation | 22 September 2009

Company description

Buy

ICBC is the largest bank in China in terms of total assets, loans and deposits. It is the market leader in personal and corporate banking business in the domestic market. ICBC has more than 16,400 branches in China and 100 branches overseas. It is also the parent company of ICBC (Asia), the fifth-largest bank in Hong Kong by market cap. ICBC's foreign strategic investors are Goldman Sachs Group, Allianz Group and American Express Limited. It was listed on the HKEX on 26 October 2006 after a financial restructuring in 2005, which saw the Chinese government injecting US$15bn into the bank.

Price relative to country 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Oct 06

Strategic analysis

Average SWOT company score:

Strengths

4

Feb May Sep Dec 07 07 07 07

5 Other retail 5%

2

Disc bills Overseas 3% 9%

Mortgages 13% Other corporate 5% Trade and services 9%

Improving risk management but still vulnerable to an economic slowdown. Large and controlling ownership by the government.

Opportunities

5

Jun Sep 09 09

Manufacturing 15%

Infrastructure 33%

Source: Company data

Threats

Market data

3

Nov Feb 08 09

Real estate and construction 8%

Development of consumer banking and fee-based businesses, such as funds management, insurance and securities, supported by strategic investors Goldman Sachs, Allianz and American Express. Changing regulations and policies, especially involving the deregulation of lending and deposit rates (which are keeping spreads wide) and acceleration of corporate bond market development (which would lead to disintermediation).

Jul 08

Loan mix 1H09

The largest commercial bank in China with a massive branch network and customer base.

Weaknesses

Apr 08

Headquarters Tower B No 2 Fuxingmennei Ave, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China Website www.icbc.com.cn

Scoring range is 1-5 (high score is good)

Shares in issue 334020.0m Freefloat 12% Majority shareholders MOF (35%), Huijin (35%), Goldman Sachs (5%)

Country view

Overweight

Growth concerns still dominate, especially with exports seemingly still bumping the bottom. We believe that fixedasset investment growth will have to provide the buffer, particularly as domestic consumption has hardly picked up. That said, with the 60th anniversary of the People's Republic of China on 1 October this year, there is growing sentiment that the country will meet its 8% GDP growth target, even if it comes at a price in the future. We believe that lending growth can remain strong going forward, which should benefit the banks, while we also expect the real-estate sector to see some upside.

Country rel to Asia Pacific 210 190 170 150 130

The country view is set in consultation with the relevant company analyst but is the ultimate responsibility of the Strategy Team. 110 90 Sep Jan May Aug Nov Mar 06 07 07 07 07 08

Competitive position

Average competitive score:

Supplier power

45-

The deposit base appears largely fragmented, meaning suppliers have little collective influence. Deposit rate ceilings are set by the PBOC to prevent negative competitive pricing.

Barriers to entry

5-

Barriers to entry are high, given strict regulatory controls in China, branch network costs over a very large geography and increasing IT needs.

Customer power

3-

Borrowers are largely disorganised, so customer power is quite low except in relation to large or high-quality corporates. The minimum lending rates are set by the PBOC.

Substitute products

4-

Limited substitute products. The corporate debt market and fund management industry are still in the early stages of development, although the trend is for increasing disintermediation.

Rivalry

3-

Competition is generally intense among banks, but the restrictions on lending and deposit rates have limited the effects of competition on margins. Scoring range 1-5 (high score is good) Plus = getting better Minus = getting worse

ICBC | Strategic and Competitive Overview | 22 September 2009

Jul 08

Oct 08

Feb 09

Jun Sep 09 09

Broker recommendations 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Buy

Source: Bloomberg

Hold

Sell

Recommendation structure Absolute performance, short term (trading) recommendation: A Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more and a Trading Sell indicates downside of 5% or more. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. For Australian coverage, a Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range, and a Trading Sell recommendation implies downside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. Absolute performance, long term (fundamental) recommendation: The recommendation is based on implied upside/downside for the stock from the target price. A Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more and a Hold less than 10%. For UK Small/Mid-Cap Analysis a Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more, an Add/Reduce 5-10% and a Hold less than 5%. For UK-based Investment Funds research the recommendation structure is not based on upside/downside to the target price. Rather it is the subjective view of the analyst based on an assessment of the resources and track record of the fund management company. For listed property trusts (LPT) or real estate investment trusts (REIT) the recommendation is based upon the target price plus the dividend yield, ie total return. Performance parameters and horizon: Given the volatility of share prices and our pre-disposition not to change recommendations frequently, these performance parameters should be interpreted flexibly. Performance in this context only reflects capital appreciation and the horizon is 12 months. Sector relative to market: The sector view relative to the market is the responsibility of the strategy team. Overweight/Underweight implies upside/downside of 10% or more and Neutral implies less than 10% upside/downside. Target price: The target price is the level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst's view of the stock and if the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception within the performance horizon. In this way, therefore, the target price abstracts from the need to take a view on the market or sector. If it is felt that the catalysts are not fully in place to effect a re-rating of the stock to its warranted value, the target price will differ from 'fair' value.

Distribution of recommendations The tables below show the distribution of ABN AMRO's recommendations (both long term and trading). The first column displays the distribution of recommendations globally and the second column shows the distribution for the region. Numbers in brackets show the percentage for each category where ABN AMRO has an investment banking relationship.

Long Term recommendations (as at 22 Sep 2009)

Trading recommendations (as at 22 Sep 2009)

Global total (IB%)

Asia Pacific total (IB%)

Buy

497 (4)

351 (0)

Add

0 (0)

0 (0)

Hold

389 (3)

229 (1)

Reduce Sell Total (IB%)

Global total (IB%)

Asia Pacific total (IB%)

2 (0)

2 (0)

Trading Buy

0 (0)

0 (0)

137 (0)

87 (0)

Trading Sell

0 (0)

0 (0)

1023 (3)

667 (0)

Total (IB%)

2 (0)

2 (0)

Source: ABN AMRO

Source: ABN AMRO

Valuation and risks to target price ICBC (RIC: 1398.HK, Rec: Buy, CP: HK$6.16, TP: HK$6.81): The key upside risk to our GGM-based target price is a stronger-than-expected rebound in the global economy leading to upside to our asset quality and margin forecasts. Key downside risks are: 1) a relapse in the global economy and the benefits from China's stimulus package, which would lead to higher NPL risk; and 2) faster-than-expected interest-rate liberalisation, which would lead to structural pressure.

ICBC coverage data Stock performance, recommendations and coverage (as at 21 Sep 2009)

Trading recommendation history (as at 22 Sep 2009) Date

Rec

Analyst

n/a Source: ABN AMRO

Sally Ng, CFA started covering this stock on 22 Apr 09 Moved to new recommendation structure between 1 November 2005 and 31 January 2006 Source: ABN AMRO

Regulatory disclosures Subject companies: 1398.HK An analyst or a member of any analyst's household who participated in the preparation of this report has a shareholding/financial interest in this company: 1398.HK, 601398.SS

ICBC | Disclosures Appendix | 22 September 2009

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ICBC | Disclosures Appendix | 22 September 2009