Retail Consulting - National Retail Bulletin - J.c. Williams Group - April 2009
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U.S. Data
Advance April 2009 Retail Sales i Released May 13, 2009
Retail Sales Fare Better in April Over Year-to-date
however this was lower than its year-todate sales.
As the weather starts to warm up so does consumer sentiment for an economic recovery. A welcome change from past months, consumer confidence jumped 12 points from March, typifying April with an index of 39.
Clothing and Accessories Stores remained down this month by -3.0%. The category bettered its year-to-date growth of -6.1% leaving room for optimism that sales are picking up. A further examination of the first quarter sales growth revealed that while both men’s and women’s specialty clothing stores have witnessed significant cuts (-12.7%, -12.8% respectively), Family Clothing Stores have weathered the economic storm much better (-1.1%) For example, Old Navy stood out amidst an ocean of retailers, as its sales increased by 1%.
While All Stores sales for the month fell -9.4%, All Stores excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations dipped by only -1.8%. Sales growth for the month of April fared better than year-to-date, indicating a potential, positive trend for certain retail categories. Health and Personal Care Stores topped the category list in retail sales growth, as it increased by 5.4%. General Merchandise Stores also improved this month, growing 3.2%. Both Target and Walmart partook in the positive results, with Walmart’s sales growing by nearly twice its forecasted estimate. Food and Beverage Stores sales remained steady at 1.3%. Grocery Stores sales were flat at 0.5%. Food Services and Drinking Places saw an uptick of 1.1% in revenue for the month;
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores, while still negative, also enjoyed improved sales results in April compared to the rest of the year. Sales were down -10.5% for the month. Retailers that continue to under-perform in April compared to their year-to-date sales include Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores.
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores were down by -14.3% in April. Electronics and Appliance Stores were also hit with a decrease of -11.9%. First quarter sales, for the above categories combined, fell by -9.8% compared to a greater fall in April sales of -13.1%. However, a further analysis of first quarter results showed positive growth for Book Stores (7.6%); Warehouse Clubs and Superstores (3.9%); Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (3.3%); Food Services and Drinking Place (1.9%); and Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses (0.4%). Some retailers will be spirited by their April sales growth, while others will keep facing double digit losses. As consumers ramp up for summer fun, continued investment in value and convenience will play a key role in sustaining this positive monthly trend. Release Date of the Next National Retail Bulletin: June 11, 2009
Please note: The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of “raw” (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day) retail sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year. The U.S. Census Bureau also reports seasonally adjusted sales that are compared to the previous month within the current calendar year to measure change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believes that using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year’s performance more accurately reflects the seasonality of the retail industry, and therefore, are more useful in analysis. Definitions can be found on the U.S. Census Website: www.census.gov.
350 West Hubbard St. Ste. 240, Chicago, Il. 60654 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more information, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
Retail Sales by Store Category Sales for the Month of April All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Clothing and Accessories Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Food Services and Drinking Places
Year to Date Sales Ending April All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Clothing and Accessories Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Food Services and Drinking Places
2009
2008
2009/2008
335,188 58,824 26,664 47,402 42,362 21,073 27,617 47,078 14,817 16,559 14,491 7,307 7,184 6,258 9,090 22,306 37,856
370,144 74,115 41,674 46,805 42,168 20,000 30,843 45,620 15,099 17,077 16,678 8,525 8,153 6,409 9,298 24,195 37,430
-9.4% -20.6% -36.0% 1.3% 0.5% 5.4% -10.5% 3.2% -1.9% -3.0% -13.1% -14.3% -11.9% -2.4% -2.2% -7.8% 1.1%
2009
2008
2009/2008
1,286,827 220,859 101,494 187,485 168,828 83,061 88,448 180,884 54,903 60,997 61,765 29,526 32,239 25,521 35,070 93,635 147,638
1,429,984 285,545 155,144 187,354 169,605 80,824 99,575 179,936 58,840 64,938 69,089 34,466 34,623 26,084 36,884 99,412 145,199
-10.0% -22.7% -34.6% 0.1% -0.5% 2.8% -11.2% 0.5% -6.7% -6.1% -10.6% -14.3% -6.9% -2.2% -4.9% -5.8% 1.7%
Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
Retail Sales by Store Category Revised Year to Date Sales Ending March All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Pharmacies and Drug Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores Building Material and Supplies Stores Hardware Stores GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, and other) General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Discount Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Conventional and National Dept. Stores (ex. Leased depts.) Warehouse Clubs and Superstores All Other General Merchandise Stores Clothing and Accessories Stores Men's Clothingg Stores Women's Clothing Stores Family Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jewellery Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishing Stores Household Appliance Stores Radio, TV and Other Electronics Stores Computer and Software Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Sporting Goods Stores Book Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses Fuel Dealers Food Services and Drinking Places
2009 951,639 162,035 74,830 140,083 126,466 9,069 61,988 51,642 60,831 51,874 3,948 253,696 133,806 40,086 26,471 13,615 83,680 10,040 44,438 1,860 7,424 17,313 5,682 5,385 47,274 12,781 9,438 3,756 15,507 5,244 19,263 7,810 3,931 25,980 71,329 48,142 12,574 109,782
2008
2009/2008
1,059,840 211,430 113,470 140,549 127,437 8,783 60,824 50,722 68,732 60,210 4,185 263,763 134,316 43,741 27,492 16,249 80,522 10,053 47,861 2,131 8,511 17,500 6,070 6,263 52,411 14,664 11,277 4,100 16,056 5,504 19,675 7,758 3,652 27,586 75,217 47,962 16,221 107,769
Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
-10.2% -23.4% -34.1% -0.3% -0.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.8% -11.5% -13.8% -5.7% -3.8% -0.4% -8.4% -3.7% -16.2% 3.9% -0.1% -7.2% -12.7% -12.8% -1.1% -6.4% -14.0% -9.8% -12.8% -16.3% -8.4% -3.4% -4.7% -2.1% 0.7% 7.6% -5.8% -5.2% 0.4% -22.5% 1.9%
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
20
Source: U.S. Conference Board
U.S. U S Monthly Retail Sales by Major Category Percentage Change from Same Month, Previous Year Auto
15%
Food & Drug
GAFO
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
-35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
Advance April 2009 Retail Sales i Released May 13, 2009
Retail Sales Fare Better in April Over Year-to-date
however this was lower than its year-todate sales.
As the weather starts to warm up so does consumer sentiment for an economic recovery. A welcome change from past months, consumer confidence jumped 12 points from March, typifying April with an index of 39.
Clothing and Accessories Stores remained down this month by -3.0%. The category bettered its year-to-date growth of -6.1% leaving room for optimism that sales are picking up. A further examination of the first quarter sales growth revealed that while both men’s and women’s specialty clothing stores have witnessed significant cuts (-12.7%, -12.8% respectively), Family Clothing Stores have weathered the economic storm much better (-1.1%) For example, Old Navy stood out amidst an ocean of retailers, as its sales increased by 1%.
While All Stores sales for the month fell -9.4%, All Stores excluding Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and Gasoline Stations dipped by only -1.8%. Sales growth for the month of April fared better than year-to-date, indicating a potential, positive trend for certain retail categories. Health and Personal Care Stores topped the category list in retail sales growth, as it increased by 5.4%. General Merchandise Stores also improved this month, growing 3.2%. Both Target and Walmart partook in the positive results, with Walmart’s sales growing by nearly twice its forecasted estimate. Food and Beverage Stores sales remained steady at 1.3%. Grocery Stores sales were flat at 0.5%. Food Services and Drinking Places saw an uptick of 1.1% in revenue for the month;
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores, while still negative, also enjoyed improved sales results in April compared to the rest of the year. Sales were down -10.5% for the month. Retailers that continue to under-perform in April compared to their year-to-date sales include Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores.
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores were down by -14.3% in April. Electronics and Appliance Stores were also hit with a decrease of -11.9%. First quarter sales, for the above categories combined, fell by -9.8% compared to a greater fall in April sales of -13.1%. However, a further analysis of first quarter results showed positive growth for Book Stores (7.6%); Warehouse Clubs and Superstores (3.9%); Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores (3.3%); Food Services and Drinking Place (1.9%); and Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses (0.4%). Some retailers will be spirited by their April sales growth, while others will keep facing double digit losses. As consumers ramp up for summer fun, continued investment in value and convenience will play a key role in sustaining this positive monthly trend. Release Date of the Next National Retail Bulletin: June 11, 2009
Please note: The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of “raw” (i.e., unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day) retail sales figures to those in the same calendar month of the previous year. The U.S. Census Bureau also reports seasonally adjusted sales that are compared to the previous month within the current calendar year to measure change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believes that using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year’s performance more accurately reflects the seasonality of the retail industry, and therefore, are more useful in analysis. Definitions can be found on the U.S. Census Website: www.census.gov.
350 West Hubbard St. Ste. 240, Chicago, Il. 60654 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more information, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
Retail Sales by Store Category Sales for the Month of April All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Clothing and Accessories Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Food Services and Drinking Places
Year to Date Sales Ending April All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Clothing and Accessories Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores Electronics and Appliance Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Food Services and Drinking Places
2009
2008
2009/2008
335,188 58,824 26,664 47,402 42,362 21,073 27,617 47,078 14,817 16,559 14,491 7,307 7,184 6,258 9,090 22,306 37,856
370,144 74,115 41,674 46,805 42,168 20,000 30,843 45,620 15,099 17,077 16,678 8,525 8,153 6,409 9,298 24,195 37,430
-9.4% -20.6% -36.0% 1.3% 0.5% 5.4% -10.5% 3.2% -1.9% -3.0% -13.1% -14.3% -11.9% -2.4% -2.2% -7.8% 1.1%
2009
2008
2009/2008
1,286,827 220,859 101,494 187,485 168,828 83,061 88,448 180,884 54,903 60,997 61,765 29,526 32,239 25,521 35,070 93,635 147,638
1,429,984 285,545 155,144 187,354 169,605 80,824 99,575 179,936 58,840 64,938 69,089 34,466 34,623 26,084 36,884 99,412 145,199
-10.0% -22.7% -34.6% 0.1% -0.5% 2.8% -11.2% 0.5% -6.7% -6.1% -10.6% -14.3% -6.9% -2.2% -4.9% -5.8% 1.7%
Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
Retail Sales by Store Category Revised Year to Date Sales Ending March All Stores Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers Gasoline Stations Food and Beverage Stores Grocery Stores Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores Health and Personal Care Stores Pharmacies and Drug Stores Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores Building Material and Supplies Stores Hardware Stores GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, and other) General Merchandise Stores Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Discount Department Stores (excluding leased departments) Conventional and National Dept. Stores (ex. Leased depts.) Warehouse Clubs and Superstores All Other General Merchandise Stores Clothing and Accessories Stores Men's Clothingg Stores Women's Clothing Stores Family Clothing Stores Shoe Stores Jewellery Stores Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores Furniture Stores Home Furnishing Stores Household Appliance Stores Radio, TV and Other Electronics Stores Computer and Software Stores Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores Sporting Goods Stores Book Stores Miscellaneous Store Retailers Nonstore Retailers Electronic Shopping and Mail-Order Houses Fuel Dealers Food Services and Drinking Places
2009 951,639 162,035 74,830 140,083 126,466 9,069 61,988 51,642 60,831 51,874 3,948 253,696 133,806 40,086 26,471 13,615 83,680 10,040 44,438 1,860 7,424 17,313 5,682 5,385 47,274 12,781 9,438 3,756 15,507 5,244 19,263 7,810 3,931 25,980 71,329 48,142 12,574 109,782
2008
2009/2008
1,059,840 211,430 113,470 140,549 127,437 8,783 60,824 50,722 68,732 60,210 4,185 263,763 134,316 43,741 27,492 16,249 80,522 10,053 47,861 2,131 8,511 17,500 6,070 6,263 52,411 14,664 11,277 4,100 16,056 5,504 19,675 7,758 3,652 27,586 75,217 47,962 16,221 107,769
Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
-10.2% -23.4% -34.1% -0.3% -0.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.8% -11.5% -13.8% -5.7% -3.8% -0.4% -8.4% -3.7% -16.2% 3.9% -0.1% -7.2% -12.7% -12.8% -1.1% -6.4% -14.0% -9.8% -12.8% -16.3% -8.4% -3.4% -4.7% -2.1% 0.7% 7.6% -5.8% -5.2% 0.4% -22.5% 1.9%
NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN
Release Date: 5/13/09
U.S. Consumer Confidence Index 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 Apr-09
Jan-09
Oct-08
Jul-08
Apr-08
Jan-08
Oct-07
Jul-07
Apr-07
Jan-07
Oct-06
Jul-06
Apr-06
Jan-06
Oct-05
Jul-05
Apr-05
Jan-05
Oct-04
Jul-04
Apr-04
20
Source: U.S. Conference Board
U.S. U S Monthly Retail Sales by Major Category Percentage Change from Same Month, Previous Year Auto
15%
Food & Drug
GAFO
10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% Mar-09
Feb-09
Jan-09
Dec-08
Nov-08
Oct-08
Sep-08
Aug-08
Jul-08
Jun-08
May-08
Apr-08
Mar-08
Feb-08
Jan-08
Dec-07
Nov-07
Oct-07
Sep-07
Aug-07
Jul-07
Jun-07
May-07
Apr-07
-35%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail [email protected]
