Renewable Energy. Wind Resource Assessment

REVIEW OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND WIND POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT AT HURGHADA, EGYPT BY

MATHIAS B. MICHAEL 071201359 MSc. RENEWABLE ENERGY ENGINEERING B59E42 RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 28TH FEBRUARY 2008

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.

ABSTRACT • Need for renewable energy in egypt • Current state of electricity generation in egypt • Description of original report – Wind resource data – Mathematical analysis • Weibull probability paper were used to estimate weibull’s parameters (c and k) • Mean power density at 10 and 70 metres was estimated • WECS were analysed based on their Plant Load Factor and capacity factor

– Observations of the results – Economic analysis • Selection of suitable WECS • Cost analysis and conclusion

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

ABSTRACT

continue

• Aim and objective of the report is to review and optimise the wind potential analysis of the reports. • Argument and discussion were made on the original report • Review analysis – Mathematical analysis were reviewed – Cost analysis were also reviewed

• Conclusion Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

INTRODUCTION • Fast depleting reserves of fossil fuels and its associated environmental pollution calls alternative environmental friendly sources of energy • Renewable energy potential in Egypt; – – – –

Hydro-electric Geothermal Wind Solar

• Large scale of wind power at Egypt not yet studied • Wind energy assessment at Hurghada by previous authors – Under-estimation

• New wind resource data (2006) by Egyptian Meteorological Authority. • This report aims to re-assess the wind energy potential at Hurghada

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

CURRENT STATE OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION • About 50% of the energy requirement of Egypt is being imported • Thermal plants generally meet Egyptian’s electricity demand (18.11 giga watt) represents 84% of total generation Table 1 Distribution of electricity generation Energy Source

Annual Annual generation generation (Gwh) (%)

Fossil fuels 65,771 Hydro-electric 11,619 Renewable Total 232.8 77622.8

Mathias B Michael,

84.74 14.97 0.3 100

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT WIND RESOURCE DATA • New wind resource data – 2006 • More than 30 meteorological stations were analysed in the wind Atlas of Egypt • Resource data of Hurghada at 10m height (23 years period)

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT ANNUAL WIND SPEEDS @ 10 METRES HEIGHT Month

0.5-1.5

2-3.1

3.6-5.2

5.7-8.2

8.7-10.8

11.3-13.9

14.4-17

≥17.5

Mean Wind Speed

January

8

12

22.3

35.7

13.8

5.9

1.1

0.1

5.8

February

7.3

11

21.3

30.8

15.9

9.6

1.8

0.2

6.3

March

8.2

11.3

20

27.5

15.8

11.9

3

0.3

6.5

April

11.3

12

18.2

25.4

15.4

11.6

3.3

0.3

6.4

May

7.8

9.8

17.3

29.3

17.9

13.5

2.9

0.4

6.9

June

6

7.5

15

30.6

21.9

16

2.2

0.1

7.4

July

8.8

10.4

16.7

30.1

18.8

12

1.5

0

6.6

August

7.8

9.8

17.3

31.5

19.9

10.4

1.3

0

6.6

September

4.5

7.1

15.4

33.2

23.6

13.7

1.6

0

7

October

10.4

11.6

20.1

31.4

16

7.2

0.7

0

5.8

November

11.6

13.5

21.9

35.2

12.1

4

0.3

0.1

5.3

December

9.4

13.6

22.1

35.2

12.7

4.9

0.4

0

5.5

Annual Mean

8.4

10.8

19

31.3

17

10.1

1.7

0.1

6.4

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT Seasonal wind speed Season

0.5-15

2-3.1

3.6-5.2

5.7-8.2

8.7-10.8

11.3-13.9

14.4-17

≥17.5

AV.WIND

Wind direct

Winter

8.2

12.2

21.9

33.9

14.1

6.8

1.1

0.1

5.9

330 NW

Spring

9.1

11

18.5

27.4

16.4

12.3

3.1

0.3

6.6

331 NW

Summer

7.5

9.2

16.3

30.7

20.2

12.8

1.7

0

6.9

332 NW

Autumn

8.8

10.7

19.1

33.3

17.2

8.3

0.9

0

6

333 NW

Annual mean

8.4

10.8

19

31.3

17

10.1

1.7

0.1

6.4

334 NW

m e a s ure d va lue s of f%

Winter Spring Summer

Frequency (%)

40

Summer

30 20 10 0 0.5-1.5

2-3.1

3.6-5.2

5.7-8.2

8.7-10.8 11.3-13.9 14.4-17

≥17.5

s p e d (m /s )

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS • Weibull parameters (c and k)

  z  k a = k10 1 − 0.0881ln a   10  

– At height of 10 metres – At desired height (hz) in metres

• monthly mean power density in kw/m2 month – At height of 10 metres – At various height

• Plant load factor (PLF) and Capacity Factor (Cf)

h ph = p10    10 

3α

Mathias B Michael,

ln[ − ln(1 − F ( U ) ) ] = k ln U − k ln c

 za  ca = c10    10 

−1

n

−1

  z  n =  0.37 − 0.0881ln a    10    3 720 1 _ __ Pmo = . ρ U (kW / m 2 month) 1000 2

ph PLF = pr

Eout Cf = Erated

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS • Low power law coefficient values for high wind speeds (c10) • Small values of k at Autumn and Spring seasons indicate widely spread data • Large values of k at winter and Summer seasons • Mean wind speeds of hurghada at summer are 6.55 and 6.9 m/s at 10 meters

Season

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Mathias B Michael,

Height (m)

C (m/s)

K

30

7.84

2.45

50

8.72

2.58

70

9.53

2.67

10

6.15

1.63

30

7.75

1.8

50

8.62

1.9

70

9.25

1.97

10

6.55

2.05

30

8.20

2.27

50

9.1

2.39

70

9.75

2.47

10

5.83

1.82

30

7.38

2.02

50

8.24

2.12

70

8.85

2.20

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

n

0.2099

0.2044

0.2146

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS •

•

The monthly PLF values are greater than 0.6 for 3 months (May, June and September) Rated wind speed and capacity factor analysis – Observation • Wind turbine with lower rated speed produces more energy • Low rated speed has greater capacity factor.

Mathias B Michael,

Month

P10 (w/m2)

P70 (kW/m2 month)

PLF @ Pr=1MW

January

119.72

37.09

0.37

February

152.77

473.4

0.47

March

166.05

514.5

0.52

April

156.24

484.1

0.48

May

193.38

599.2

0.60

June

235.61

730.0

0.73

July

166.28

515.2

0.52

August

166.10

514.7

0.52

September

200.20

620.3

0.62

October

115.43

357.70

0.36

November

89.57

277.5

0.28

December

101.63

314.9

0.31

Annual mean

155.25

481.0

0.48

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS • Wind turbine with rated power more than 1000kW is recommended • Repower MM82 with a capacity of 2000kW • Cost analysis; • Assumptions – Operational, maintenance and repair costs – 25% of annual cost of turbine – Interest rate and inflation rate – 15% and 12% – Investment includes turbine price + 20% for civil works – Scrap value – 10% of turbine price – Life time of the machine – 20 years

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS • • • • •

t t Turbine price – 1,850,000 1 + i   1 + i    1 +i  PVC = I + Comr    −S  1 −   Euros r − i 1 + r 1 + r         Cost of civil work – 370,000 r = 0.15 Euros i = 0.2 Investment – 2,220,000 Euros OM & repair cost – 23,125 Euros Turbine output – 9,663,578 kwh Scrap – 222,000 Euros Output over 20yrs – (20 * 9,663,578 kWh)

Hence specific cost per kWh is 1.26 Euro cent

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

ARGUMENT AND DISCUSSION • Selection of turbine should be based on the available mean wind speed at desire height. • Analysis of turbine height of Repower MM82 and its economic impact considered and comparing with other turbines with relative rated power. • Economic analysis will predict the economic viability of the selected wind turbine. • Review analysis is necessary

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

REVIEW MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS • Determination of annual average wind speed of various heights based on surface roughness lenght

 z   zr  U ( z ) / U ( z r ) = ln  ÷ ln   z0   z0  U(z) = Wind speed at various heights (20 – 100) U(zr) = Wind speed at reference height (10m) Z0 = Surface roughness lenght

For Egyptian terrain, a roughness factor is 0.25

α

U ( z)  z =  U ( zr )  zr

α

  

= Roughness factor

0.37 − 0.0881 ln (U ref ) α=  z ref   1 − 0.0881 ln  10  Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

REVIEW OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS •

Seasonal mean wind speed and the annual mean wind speed @70m – Weibull parameter (c) is greater than 9m/s for all 3 seasons – 8.85 m/s for autumn

• •

Annual mean wind speed – 9.63 @ 70m This reflects the actual wind speed available @70m in Hurghada. Height (m)

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Av.speed (m/s)

6.4

7.4

8.1

8.56

8.9

9.3

9.6

9.9

10.15

10.3

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

REVIEW OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS Turbine Model

Height (m)

Pr (kW)

Uci (m/s)

Ur (kW)

Uco

Eout kWh

Cf (%)

AN Bonus 1MW/54

70

1000

3

15

25

4,034,499

46

HSW 1000/57

70

1000

4

13

25

4,217,892

48

Nodex N90/2300kW

70

2300

3

13

25

11,129,760

42

Annual energy output and capacity of 3 different commercial wind turbines

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

REVIEW ECONOMIC ANALYSIS • Economic assumption; same as Repower MM82 •Interest rate and inflation rate – 15% and 12% •Investment includes turbine price + 20% for civil works •Scrap value – 10% of turbine price •Life time of the machine – 20 years •Operational, maintenance and repair costs – 25% of annual cost of turbine

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

DISCRIPTION OF ORIGINAL REPORT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS • • • • • •

Turbine price – US$2,300,000 Cost of civil work – $ 460,000 Investment – $2,760,000 OM & repair cost – $28,750 Scrap value– US$ 276,000 Present Value Cost

PVC = I + Comr

t t 1 + i   1 + i    1 +i    −S  1 −    r − i 1 + r 1 + r        

r = 0.15 i = 0.2 t = 20 yrs

Turbine output – 11,129,699 kwh Output over 20yrs – (20 * 11,129,699 kWh)

Hence specific cost per kWh is US$ 1.38 Equivalent to 0.908 Euro cent Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

CONCLUSION • Repower MM82 – not economical viable for Hurghada station • Low rated speed-High energy output; cannot always be the best for every site • Mean wind speed difference of 70m and 100m is insignificant (0.4 m/s). Hence 70m hub height is the best • Review analysis yields 0.27 Euro cent per kWh reduction

Mathias B Michael,

MSc. Renewable Energy Engineering. Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh

REFERENCES • • •

•

Ahmed Shata A.S., Hanitsch, Electricity generation and Wind potential assessment at Egypt, Renewable Energy 33 (2008) 141 – 148 , www.sciencedirect.com Al-Nasser W, Aihajraf S.,Al-Enizi A, Al-Awadhi L, Potential Wind Power general in the Stake of Kuwait. Renew Energy 2005;30; 2149-61. www.elsevier.com/locate/renene Ahmed Shata A.S., Hanitsch, R. The potential of Electricity generation on the East coast of Red Sea in Egypt, Renew Energy 2006;31;1597-615, www.sciencedirect.com Manwell, J.F., McGowan, J.G., Rogers. A.L., Wind Energy Explained (Theory, Design and Application, Publisher: John Wiley & Sons,LTD, USA, 2006