Bubble in real estate & it will burst soon soon.. ..!!! !!!
LAYOUT
Introduction Factor influencing prices The Case Analysis Way forward for Financial Institutions
INTRODUCTION
Real estate in India
Legal Term. Something affixed to land such as building. Introduced by Planning Commission for the first time in the 10th five year plan. Second largest employment generator ; next to agriculture. 100% conditional FDI has been allowed.
FACTOR INFLUENCING
PRICES
Location Asked price Terms & conditions Middle men involvement Quality features
THE CASE The Reality Index is going down from the past eight months . The investment & returns in Real Estate are shrinking up
WHY?
Fluctuations in economic activity. Financial risks Liquidity risks Inflation risks Interest rate risks Legislative risks
ANALYSIS
Increase in demand will push the prices up.
Increase in Demand • Ease in price will result in increase in demand
Liquidity Crunch • This is for short term & those who relied on stock market may find it difficult to pay their installments
Fall in Home Loan Interest Rates/Prices • Small Holders do not have liquidity power will offer discounts, resulting in ease in price to some extent.
HENCE: There is no Bubble No evidence of Bubble: No direct relation between stock market & real estate End User Vs Investors Ratio Residential -> 4:1 Commercial Commercial--> ~ 100% end users Commercial sector will not get affected
WAY FORWARD FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
The profound economics has suggested that the real estate sector would grow at 30 30% % pa to reach INR 90 90billion billion by 2015 from the existing INR12 INR12billion billion (Source (Source:: ASSOCHAM ).
It has still huge potential demand in almost every sector especially residential, commercial, retail, industrial, hospitality, health care etc etc..
According to a Merrill Lynch report, the number of malls in the country is expected to rise from 40 to around 250 by 2010.. 2010
Rising disposable income and the trend towards nuclear families are the significant factors for pushing the demand for residential properties in the country. country.
THANK YOU
BY NIPUN MAHAJAN ANALYST TRAINEE IFCI VENTURE CAPITAL FUNDS LTD NEW DELHI