Rbs - Round Up - 280909

This material has been produced by RBS sales and trading staff and should not be considered independent.

The Round Up 28 September 2009 Issue No. 184 The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrants team providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas for warrant traders and investors.

In today’s issue Global Market Action

Scoreboard, commentary

Aussie Market Action

SPI Comment, Events & Dividends

ORG (ORGKZC)

Trading Buy – Breakout

ASX (ASXKZI)

MINI Trading Buy– Volume and EPS growth

CWN (CWNKZG)

MINI Trading Buy – Value in Oz casinos

Round Up Corner

New Trading Warrants

Equities Move ASX 200

Last

% Move

Range

Volume

+12.1

4713.3

+0.3%

-62 to +26

$8.0 bn(H)

SPI - yesterday

-2.0

4725.0

-0.0%

-78 to +16

29,209(A)

Dow Jones

-42.3

9665.2

-0.4%

-66 to +28

Avg

S&P 500

-6.4

1044.4

-0.6%

-10 to +3

Avg

Nasdaq

-16.7

2090.9

-0.8%

-22 to -1

Avg

FTSE

+2.9

5082.2

+0.1%

-0 to +43

Avg

Commodities Move

Last

% Today

% Past Month

Oil-WTI spot

+0.1

66.0

+0.2%

-8.4%

Gold Spot

-3.1

991.0

-0.3%

+4.9%

Nickel (LME)

-9.1

762.5

-1.2%

-13.2%

Aluminium (LME)

-1.1

80.8

-1.3%

-4.5%

Copper (LME)

+1.4

271.0

+0.5%

-5.1%

Zinc (LME)

+0.7

84.1

+0.8%

+1.7%

Silver

-0.2

16.1

-1.3%

+12.4%

Sugar

+0.2

21.6

+0.7%

-1.5%

Dual Listed Companies (DLC’s) Move

%Move

Last

AUD Terms

Diff to Aus

NWS (US)

-0.08

-0.01

+13.6 c

15.68

-40.0 c

RIO (UK)

-13.50

-0.01

+26.3 c

48.38

-1160.1 c

BLT (BHP UK)

23.50

0.01

+16.9 c

31.13

-641.6 c

BXB (UK)

2.50

0.01

+4.3 c

7.85

-14.0 c

American Depository Receipts (ADR’s) Move BHP (US)

%Move

Last

0.09

0.00

AWC (US)

0.03

TLS (US)

-0.01

ANZ (US)

0.54

WBC (US)

3.58

AUD Terms

Diff to Aus

+64.2 c

36.94

-60.5 c

0.00

+6.3 c

1.80

-6.5 c

0.00

+14.0 c

3.22

-2.6 c

0.03

+20.5 c

23.62

-16.6 c

0.03

+112.1 c

25.81

-35.8 c

NAB (US)

0.46

0.02

+26.2 c

30.12

-30.3 c

LGL (US)

-0.33

-0.01

+25.2 c

2.90

-4.5 c

RMD (US)

-1.03

-0.02

+44.0 c

5.06

-16.7 c

JHX (US)

-1.02

-0.03

+32.1 c

7.39

-28.3 c

PDN (CAN)

0.00

0.00

+4.2 c

4.39

-10.0 c

SPI Commentary The SPI traded down 2pts or 0.04% to 4725. Open at 4670 with a low of 4649 and a high of 4743. Volume 32,411. The SPI traded down 20pts to 4705.

SPI Intraday

SPI Daily

*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS

Upcoming Economic Events for the Week Monday

AUS

Stevens testifies on the economic stimulus

US Tuesday

AUS US

Wednesday

AUS US

Thursday

AUS US

Friday

AUS US

RBA Richards speaks on housing S&P/CS composite 20 RBA private sector credit, nominal retail trade, building approvals Consumer confidence, ADP employment report, GDP, Chicago PMI AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI Personal income, personal spending, core PCE deflator TDMI inflmation gauge ISM, construction spending, pending home sales, non-farm payrolls,unemployment rate, average hously earnings

*Dates are indicative only and may change

Trading Buy: Origin Energy (ORGKZC) – Breakout On Friday ORG made a strong move up and broke through resistance at $15.50 and has managed to continue the move to $16 this week. Given the stock’s recent underperformace, look for the stock to trade up to the next resistance level at $17.00 - $17.50. RBS Research target price is $17.25 with a BUY recommendation, on the blief that the stock presents compelling value at current levels. Play thorugh ORGKZC.

Source: IRESS

The chart above shows ORG’s $15.50 breakout on Friday from its ascending triangle pattern. Look for the stock to now trade up to $17.00 - $17.50 range where previous resistance was in April/May. With ORG’s result out of the way, there appear to be no negative catalysts on the horizon for ORG. Expect the stock to gain momentum over the coming 6 – 12 months as the LNG project moves forward and the stock continues to reflect the value in that project. ORG has guided for 15% NPAT growth in FY10 which is very achievable and the company is sitting on ~A$3.75bln cash. RBS Research price target $17.25 with BUY recommendation

RBS MINIs over ORG Security

ExPrc

Stop Loss

CP

ConvFac

Delta

Description

ORGKZC

1054.9

Long

1

1

MINI Long

ORGKZP

1968.8

Short

1

1

MINI Short

MINI Trading Buy: ASX Limited (ASXKZI) – Higher volumes and EPS growth RBS Research has moved to a trading buy on ASX on the belief that the company will generate significant EPS growth from FY11 as current high volumes flow thorugh to earnings. The catalyst for a re-rating in ASX is the upcoming September volume figures (due for release early October) that will show volumes continue to grow strongly, coupled with continued high levels of secondary equity raisings and a pipeline of IPO’s. Play the earnings uplift story on ASX thorugh ASXKZI. Look for a move to $37.

Source: IRESS

ASX is set to release their September volume figures around 5 October. Given that volumes are averaging 560k/day in September vs 534k in August, there is a case for a rerating in the stock as the pick up in volumes translates to earnings. Given that the market is now looking thorugh current earnings and focusing on stocks which will provide EPS uplift in FY11+, ASX may well be set for a re-rating. There continues to be a high level of secondary market equity rsisings, particularly in the top 100-200 space, and a piepline of IPO’s which will benefit ASX earnings

RBS MINIs over Security

ExPrc

Stop Loss

CP

ConvFac

Delta

Description

ASXKZI

2067.05

Long

1

1

MINI Long

ASXKZS

4117.44

Short

1

1

MINI Short

MINI Trading Buy: Crown Limited (CWNKZG) – There’s value in Australian Casinos Given the current valuations of casinos in Macau, CWN is looking cheap with its exposure to MPEL and the significant discount that the Australian casinos are trading at. RBS Research estimate that CWN’s Australian casinos are currently trading on an EV/EBITDA of 8.2x vs MPEL at 12x and other Macau casino assets indicating a multiple of 12.5x – 14.5x. We believe that valuations in Macau are well supported by investor demand and highlight the value in Australian casino assets for CWN. Buy CWNKZG

Source: IRESS

CWN has been in uptrend since hitting lows in November 2008. RBS Research have a buy recommendation on CWN with a target price of $9. CWN recently reported FY09 NPAT of A$242mln which was in line with expectations. The performance of Australian casinos was resilient and the current valuations are cheap relative to valuations being realised in Macau… where CWN has exposure through MPEL. CWN has a strong balance sheet and is RBS Research favoured pick in the gaming sector alongside TAH

RBS MINIs over CWN Security CWNKZG

ExPrc

Stop Loss 379.11

CP

ConvFac Long

1

Delta

Description 1

MINI Long

RBS Round Up Corner: NEW Trading Warrants Listing Security

ExPrc

ExDate

CP

ConvFac

Description

BHPVZO

$ 44.00

28/01/2010

Call

4

Trading Call Warrant

CBAVZJ

$ 50.00

28/01/2010

Call

5

Trading Call Warrant

MQGVZF

$ 65.00

17/12/2009

Call

5

Trading Call Warrant

NABWZG

$ 34.00

17/12/2009

Call

4

Trading Call Warrant

NCMVZB

$ 40.00

17/12/2009

Call

4

Trading Call Warrant

RIOWZO

$ 60.00

26/11/2009

Call

6

Trading Call Warrant

RIOVZA

$ 75.00

17/12/2009

Call

6

Trading Call Warrant

TLSVZA

$

3.35

17/12/2009

Call

2

Trading Call Warrant

WBCVZN

$ 23.00

17/12/2009

Call

4

Trading Call Warrant

ANZWZV

$ 23.00

17/12/2009

Put

4

Trading Put Warrant

BHPWZT

$ 38.00

28/01/2010

Put

4

Trading Put Warrant

CBAWZX

$ 50.00

17/12/2009

Put

5

Trading Put Warrant

MQGVZR

$ 55.00

17/12/2009

Put

5

Trading Put Warrant

NABWZS

$ 28.00

17/12/2009

Put

4

Trading Put Warrant

NCMWZX

$ 33.00

17/12/2009

Put

4

Trading Put Warrant

RIOVZR

$ 65.00

17/12/2009

Put

6

Trading Put Warrant

TLSVZP

$

3.15

17/12/2009

Put

2

Trading Put Warrant

$ 25.00

17/12/2009

Put

4

Trading Put Warrant

WBCVZW

MINIs approaching stop loss Underlying

MINI Code

MINI Type

Strike

Stop Loss

Share Price

Approx. MINI Value

Share: Stop Loss

NAB

NABKZQ

Short

$32.21

$30.47

$

30.42

$

1.79

0.2%

WBC

WBCKZX

Short

$29.42

$26.52

$

26.17

$

3.25

1.3%

CBA

CBAKZP

Short

$58.15

$52.38

$

XJO

XJOKZW

Short

$5,089.94

$4,842.00

SUN

SUNKZQ

Short

$9.78

$8.82

51.30

$

6.85

2.1%

$ 4,713.30

$

3.77

2.7%

$

$

1.26

3.5%

8.52

SFI’s approaching stop loss Underlying

MINI Code

MINI Type

Strike

Stop Loss

TTS

TTSSZX

Long

$1.38

$1.64

Share Price $

2.47

Approx. MINI Value $

Share: Stop Loss

1.09

33.6%

AGK

AGKSZX

Long

$7.99

$9.06

$

13.85

$

5.86

34.6%

BSL

BSLSZW

Long

$1.77

$1.94

$

3.04

$

1.27

36.2%

CSR

CSRSZX

Long

$1.01

$1.16

$

1.83

$

0.82

36.4%

LEI

LEISZV

Long

$20.55

$23.10

$

36.67

$

16.12

37.0%

For further information please do not hesitate to contact us on the details below

Contact Equities Structured Products & Warrants Toll free

1800 450 005

www.rbs.com.au/warrants

Ben Smoker

02 8259 2085

[email protected]

Robbie Taylor

02 8259 2018

[email protected]

Ryan Corrigan

02 8259 2425

[email protected]

Elizabeth Tian

02 8259 2017

[email protected]

Tania Smyth

02 8259 2023

[email protected]

Robert Deutsch

02 8259 2065

[email protected]

Mark Tisdell

02 8259 6951

[email protected]

Trading Products Team

Investment Products Team

Disclaimer: The information contained in this report has been prepared by RBS Equities (Australia) Limited (“RBS”) (ABN 84 002 768 701) (AFS Licence No 240530) (“RBS Equities”) and has been taken from sources believed to be reliable. RBS Equities does not make representations that the information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Any opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this report are the views of RBS Equities at the date of issue and are subject to change without notice. RBS Equities and its affiliated companies may make markets in the securities discussed. RBS Equities, its affiliated companies and their employees from time to time may hold shares, options, rights and warrants on any issue contained in this report and may, as principal or agent, sell such securities. RBS Equities may have acted as manager or co-manager of a public offering of any such securities in the past three years. RBS Equities’ affiliates may provide, or have provided banking services or corporate finance to the companies referred to in this report. The knowledge of affiliates concerning such services may not be reflected in this report. This report does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase any securities and should not be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment. RBS Equities, in preparing this report, has not taken into account an individual client’s investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before a client makes an investment decision, a client should, with or without RBS Equities’ assistance, consider whether any advice contained in this report is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. It is unreasonable to rely on any recommendation without first having consulted with your adviser for a personal securities recommendation. This information contained in this report is general advice only. RBS Equities, its officers, directors, employees and agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the information contained in this report. This Information is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. If you are located outside Australia and use this Information, you are responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulation. This report may not be taken or distributed, directly or indirectly into the United States, or to any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1993, as amended. The warrants contained in this report are issued by RBS Group (Australia) Pty Limited (ABN 78 000 862 797, AFS Licence No. 247013). The Product Disclosure Statements relating to these warrants are available upon request from RBS Equities or on our website www.rbs.com.au/warrants © Copyright 2009. RBS Equities. A Participant of the ASX Group.

Explanation of Warrant Tables: Security – refers to the code ascribed to the warrant, ExDate – refers to the date on which the warrant expires or is reset, ExPrc – refers to the exercise price, or second instalment payment, CP – tells you whether the warrant is a call or a put, ConvFac – the conversion factor of the warrant which tells you how many warrants you need to exercise in order to take possession of 1 share, Delta – tells you how much the warrant will move for a 1c move in the underlying security, Description – Tells you the type of warrant. All charts taken from IRESS unless indicated otherwise