Qpoll-oct3

Maurice Carroll, Director Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: OCTOBER 3, 2008

MOST NEW YORKERS BACK THIRD TERM FOR BLOOMBERG, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; HE LEADS ANYONE IN ’09 PACK 5 – 1 By a margin of 54 – 42 percent, New York City voters favor extending the eight-year term limit to 12 years so they can elect Mayor Michael Bloomberg to a third term, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This compares to a July 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll in which New Yorkers opposed 56 – 38 percent extending term limits for four more years of Mayor Bloomberg. In this latest survey, conducted Tuesday and Wednesday amidst speculation about Mayor Bloomberg’s plans but before his official announcement, Democrats favor 53 – 43 percent extending term limits, while Republicans and independents support it 61 – 37 percent and 55 – 41 percent respectively. Whites back the idea 64 – 31 percent while black voters are opposed 54 – 42 percent and Hispanic voters favor the idea 51- 47 percent. “Does this mean that New York voters like term limits less? No. It means they like Mayor Mike more,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. Asked who they most want to see elected Mayor in 2009: • • • • • • •

51 percent name Bloomberg; 9 percent choose Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz; 8 percent want City Comptroller William Thompson; 7 percent pick Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly; 7 percent name U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner; 5 percent pick City Council Speaker Christine Quinn; 4 percent name Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum. “Will it be a coronation? Bloomberg’s support is more than 50 percent. The others? Way

down in single digits. His job approval is still up in the stratosphere, where it’s been for three years,” Carroll added. -more 

Quinnipiac University Poll/October 3, 2008 – page 2 Looking at another term limit question, 52 percent of New Yorkers say Bloomberg deserves four more years to finish his work as Mayor, while 44 percent say changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair. By a 65 – 29 percent margin, New Yorkers support the basic concept of term limits. Support is consistent among all groups. In a question where no individual is named, New York City voters oppose 56 – 39 percent extending the current two-term or eight-year limit so city officials could serve a third term. And while voters would extend term limits to vote for Bloomberg, they oppose 58 – 35 percent extending term limits to give their local City Council member four more years. “Council members’ feelings might be hurt that voters don’t want to change term limits for them. But presumably they’ll swallow their pride and take a free ride to a third-term campaign along with the mayor,” Carroll said. New York City voters approve 75 – 19 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing. Approval is consistent among Democrats, Republicans and independent voters. Whites approve 83 – 13 percent while blacks approve 69 – 23 percent and Hispanic voters approve 68 – 25 percent. Bloomberg’s approval has topped 70 percent in every poll except one – a 69 percent rating – since November 2005. Approval for three other city-wide elected officials is at or close to the highest levels ever: • • •

53 – 13 percent for Comptroller Thompson; 49 – 16 percent for Public Advocate Gotbaum; 48 – 22 percent for Council Speaker Quinn. “If these leaders decide to get on the Bloomberg bandwagon and seek a third term, they’re

starting out from a good position,” Carroll said. From September 30 – October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,316 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

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1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

75% 19 6

78% 17 5

75% 18 7

75% 20 5

83% 13 5

69% 23 8

68% 25 6

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

67% 25 8

72% 21 7

82% 14 4

76% 17 7

79% 16 5

79% 15 6

72% 21 7

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? * also 75% on 3/12/08, 1/16/07 & 11/17/05

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

May 7 2008

Mar 12 2008

Jan 9 2008

Highest Approve Oct 3 2008*

75 19 6

71 22 6

70 22 8

75 17 8

73 20 7

75 19 6

2. Now I'm going to name seven people who all seven names, please tell me which one 2009. Here are the choices: Mayor Michael Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller Gotbaum?

Bloomberg Markowitz Kelly Weiner Quinn Thompson Gotbaum DK/NA

Bloomberg Markowitz Kelly Weiner Quinn Thompson Gotbaum DK/NA

might run for mayor you would most like Bloomberg, Brooklyn Congressman Anthony William Thompson or

Lowest Approve Jul 2 2003 31 60 8

next year. After I read to see elected mayor in Borough President Marty Weiner, City Council Public Advocate Betsy

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

51% 9 7 7 5 8 4 9

65% 7 13 4 3 1 1 7

50% 10 6 7 6 8 5 8

47% 7 7 10 6 10 3 10

60% 5 8 8 6 3 3 7

40% 14 6 3 4 17 5 11

49% 9 8 7 7 6 3 11

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

46% 3 9 4 4 14 6 14

42% 21 6 8 5 6 3 9

66% 2 3 4 6 6 5 7

49% 4 10 11 6 9 4 7

58% 10 6 6 4 3 1 13

53% 9 7 9 5 10 1 7

49% 9 7 6 6 6 6 10

Cont’d.

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Cont’d. WITHOUT Bloomberg (Based on second choice of Bloomberg supporters) Tot Markowitz Kelly Weiner Quinn Thompson Gotbaum DK/NA

15% 19 15 12 13 7 19

TREND: Now I'm going to name seven people who might run for mayor next year. After I read all seven names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson, and Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum? na = not asked

Bloomberg Markowitz Kelly Weiner Quinn Thompson Gotbaum DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

May 7 2008

Mar 13 2008

51 9 7 7 5 8 4 9

38 11 12 10 7 7 4 10

na 13 23 16 10 10 6 22

na 14 22 14 13 8 8 21

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

61% 25 14

79% 12 9

56% 30 14

70% 16 14

73% 15 12

47% 41 12

58% 30 12

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

56% 28 17

56% 31 13

61% 22 16

67% 22 11

73% 18 9

68% 21 11

56% 28 16

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling Police Commissioner? * also 70% on 2/3/06 Highest Approve Oct 3 Jul 16 May 7&8 Mar 13 Jan 9 Mar 9 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2006*

his job as

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

52 34 14

61 25 14

60 27 13

59 30 11

62 28 10

60 23 16

70 17 13

Lowest Approve Jan 16 2007

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4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

42% 38 20

48% 31 21

41% 38 21

40% 42 18

45% 32 23

41% 45 14

39% 41 20

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

41% 40 19

39% 43 18

46% 32 22

39% 41 21

51% 31 18

48% 32 20

37% 43 20

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 3 Jul 16 May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Feb 26 Mar 15 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2003 2007 Approve Disapprove DK/NA

42 38 20

44 37 19

37 41 22

40 39 21

40 37 24

46 27 28

33 43 24

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

49% 16 35

38% 30 32

52% 12 36

47% 18 35

44% 18 38

56% 11 33

50% 14 36

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

52% 12 36

48% 18 34

49% 12 38

52% 16 32

29% 31 40

44% 21 35

52% 13 35

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate? Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 3 Jul 16 May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Oct 3 Feb 26 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2003 Approve Disapprove DK/NA

49 16 35

45 17 38

48 18 33

45 18 37

44 18 38

49 16 35

34 17 49

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6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

48% 22 29

38% 34 28

53% 17 29

44% 31 25

49% 23 28

54% 19 27

44% 22 34

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

44% 25 31

49% 24 27

50% 17 32

50% 23 27

44% 23 33

47% 29 24

49% 18 33

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

May 7 2008

Mar 13 2008

Jan 9 2008

Highest Approve Mar 14 2007

48 22 29

44 25 31

43 30 27

48 15 37

48 14 38

51 12 37

Lowest Approve May 7 2008 43 30 27

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

53% 13 34

43% 21 36

55% 11 34

56% 14 30

46% 11 43

67% 12 21

47% 19 34

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

57% 12 31

54% 17 29

43% 9 48

57% 14 29

59% 7 34

57% 15 28

50% 11 38

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

May 7 2008

Mar 13 2008

Jan 9 2008

Highest Approve Oct 3 2008

53 13 34

51 13 36

51 16 33

44 11 46

48 14 38

53 13 34

Lowest Approve Feb 26 2003 35 13 52

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8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job?

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

50% 31 18

44% 42 14

53% 28 19

52% 33 15

50% 30 20

57% 29 14

44% 39 18

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

41% 38 20

52% 33 15

53% 24 24

51% 31 17

49% 38 13

50% 35 16

51% 29 20

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job? * also 50% on 3/13/08 Highest Lowest Approve Approve Oct 3 Jul 16 May 7 Mar 13 Jan 9 Oct 3 Jul 16 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008* 2008 Approve Disapprove DK/NA

50 31 18

43 38 18

47 38 16

50 29 21

46 31 23

50 31 18

43 38 18

9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

Very satisfied Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA

Very satisfied Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

12% 48 23 16 1

18% 43 21 18 -

11% 47 24 17 1

12% 55 20 11 2

16% 56 21 7 1

8% 44 27 21 -

12% 38 25 23 2

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

10% 44 23 21 2

11% 48 24 16 1

19% 53 16 11 1

9% 47 26 16 1

9% 45 29 15 2

15% 54 18 12 1

11% 44 26 18 1

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

Very satisfied Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

May 8 2008

Nov 19 2007

Jul 25 2007

Jul 12 2006

Apr 12 2006

12 48 23 16 1

9 48 26 15 1

8 47 28 16 -

12 53 22 11 2

10 54 23 12 1

16 51 22 10 1

12 56 22 9 1

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10. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

65% 29 6

66% 28 7

65% 30 5

67% 26 7

65% 30 5

67% 27 6

63% 31 6

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

64% 27 9

66% 28 6

61% 34 5

65% 29 6

77% 18 5

63% 32 5

66% 27 7

TREND: Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose setting limits on the number of years elected officials can hold office?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

Mar 1 2001

65 29 6

71 23 6

67 28 5

11. Currently, there is an 8 year time limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

39% 56 5

37% 57 6

40% 56 4

40% 55 5

50% 46 4

29% 68 4

32% 62 7

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

30% 66 4

35% 59 6

51% 46 4

38% 56 6

38% 54 8

41% 55 4

37% 57 6

TREND: Currently, there is an 8 year term limit for all elected New York City officials. Do you favor or oppose extending this limit to 12 years?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

Mar 1 2001

39 56 5

32 65 3

34 63 4

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12. As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. If Mayor Bloomberg commits to running for a third term as mayor, would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

54% 42 4

61% 37 2

53% 43 4

55% 41 3

64% 31 5

42% 54 4

51% 47 2

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

50% 45 5

49% 48 3

62% 33 5

56% 41 3

56% 36 8

55% 41 4

54% 42 4

TREND: As you may know, Michael Bloomberg will have served 8 years as Mayor by the end of 2009. If Mayor Bloomberg commits to running for a third term as mayor, would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so you could vote for him?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

54 42 4

38 56 5

13. Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

35% 58 7

34% 62 5

35% 58 7

36% 59 5

38% 53 9

29% 66 5

36% 58 6

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

28% 65 8

35% 61 4

35% 56 8

39% 54 7

31% 59 10

36% 60 4

34% 58 9

TREND: Would you favor or oppose extending the 8 year time limit so your local City Council member can serve four more years?

Favor Oppose DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

35 58 7

26 66 8

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14. If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish; he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair; someone else should have the chance to be mayor?

Four more years in office Changing the rules unfair DK/NA

Four more years in office Changing the rules unfair DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

52%

57%

50%

56%

64%

38%

42%

44 5

40 3

46 4

40 4

32 4

58 3

53 5

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

42%

46%

62%

54%

52%

53%

51%

51 7

49 5

33 5

43 3

44 5

42 5

45 4

TREND: If term limits are altered or abolished and Mayor Bloomberg could run again, which comes closest to your feelings: Bloomberg has a lot of good programs he wants to finish; he should get four more years in office OR Changing the rules in the middle of the game is unfair; someone else should have the chance to be mayor?

Four more years in office Changing the rules unfair DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

Jul 16 2008

52

40

44 5

55 5

15. Mayor Bloomberg is trying to balance the city budget. Do you think he should raise taxes, cut spending, or borrow money?

Raise taxes Cut spending Borrow money DK/NA

Raise taxes Cut spending Borrow money DK/NA

Tot

Rep

Dem

Ind

Wht

Blk

Hisp

18% 56 14 12

5% 73 15 7

22% 51 14 12

16% 61 14 9

21% 57 10 12

15% 56 16 12

13% 57 20 10

Brnx

Kngs

Man

Qns

StIsl

Men

Wom

11% 61 14 14

26% 51 13 10

24% 50 12 14

11% 60 19 9

9% 75 5 11

23% 55 11 11

15% 57 16 12

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TREND: Mayor Bloomberg is trying to balance the city budget. Do you think he should raise taxes, cut spending or borrow money?

Raise taxes Cut spending Borrow money DK/NA

Oct 3 2008

May 7 2003

Feb 27 2003

Nov 21 2002

Jul 17 2002

18 56 14 12

20 37 29 14

17 44 26 13

22 44 20 13

18 48 23 12

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