Pseudoscience Is Defective Science

Pseudoscience is defective science

Agree or Disagree? • When cows fall asleep standing up, it is easy (and fun!) to sneak up next to them and tip them over. • Birds eating rice thrown at weddings swell up and die (even burst). • Animals exposed to radioactive waste mutate and turn into other types of animals.

Agree or Disagree? • Earthworms come up onto the sidewalks after heavy rain to avoid being drowned in their underground tunnels. • People licking toads have hallucinations. • Lennon wrote better music than Tchaikovsky. • Heaven is not in our solar system, but it is somewhere in the universe.

Science involves… • • • • • •

Using and extending the senses Observing and collecting Probing and testing Deductive hypothesis testing Inductive search for patterns Building increasingly accurate explanations based on evidence

Good Science Good Science is • Consistent • Parsimonious • Empirically testable • Progressive • Retrogressive • useful

Some Examples of Good Science • • • • • • •

Natural Selection DNA Thermodynamics Quanta Standard Model of Particle Physics Cosmology Relativity

Mendeleev and the Periodic Table of Chemical Elements

Fleming and the serendipitous discovery of the first antibiotic

Goodall and the willingness to break with convention

The Scientific Method • There is simply no fixed set of steps that scientists always follow, no one path that leads them unerringly to scientific knowledge.

“The Scientific Method”

1) Question or Problem

2) Hypothesize

3) Predict Consequences 4) Experiment 5) Interpret Experimental Results

Experiments • An experiment is a test used to determine if there is evidence to support a hypothesis

What is a hypothesis? An hypothesis is a guess or prediction about a phenomenon.

The “null” hypothesis predicts that there will be NO difference between experimental groups.

What is a theory? • A theory is an explanation that has a very large amount of evidence to support it. • A fact is an observation about nature. A theory is an explanation. So a theory can never “become” a fact.

Fact, Hypothesis, Law, Theory • Fact = a stated observation • Hypothesis = a proposition that may be investigated • Law or Principle = a description of observable phenomena • Theory = an explanation based on extensive evidence

Fuzzy Boundaries Between Science and Pseudoscience • Subject matter: Sense and non-sense • There is a continuum between these extremes not a simple true or false. • Individual: Competence, incompetence, • Insane, one field able, once competent, • Cranks.

pseudoscience • pseudoscience is an established body of knowledge which masquerades as science in an attempt to claim a legitimacy which it would not otherwise be able to achieve on its own terms; it is often known as fringe- or alternative science.

pseudoscience • The most important of its defects is usually the lack of the carefully controlled and thoughtfully interpreted experiments which provide the foundation of the natural sciences and which contribute to their advancement.

pseudoscience • The term "established body of knowledge" is important here, because the pursuit of scientific knowledge usually involves elements of intuition and guesswork; • experiments do not always test a theory adequately, and experimental results can be incorrectly interpreted or even wrong. • In legitimate science, however, these problems tend to be self-correcting, if not by the original researchers themselves, then through the critical scrutiny of the greater scientific community.

Some other kinds of defective science pathological science • N-rays • Poly-water • Cold fusion • Bowen Technique Intelligent Design • Acupuncture

Some other kinds of defective science • junk science • "9944/100% Pure: It Floats" • Ivory Soap is a classic example of junk science from the 19th century. Not only is the term "pure" meaningless when applied to an undefined mixture such as hand soap, but the implication that its ability to float is evidence of this purity is deceptive. The low density is achieved by beating air bubbles into it, actually reducing the "purity" of the product and in a sense cheating the consumer.

Some other kinds of defective science • bad science Bad science describes well-intentioned but incorrect, obsolete, incomplete, or over-simplified expositions of scientific ideas. An example would be the statement that electrons revolve in orbits around the atomic nucleus, a picture that was discredited in the 1920's, but is so much more vivid and easily grasped than the one that supplanted it that it shows no sign of dying out.

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • The primary goal of science is to achieve a more complete and more unified understanding of the physical world. • Pseudo-sciences are more likely to be driven by ideological, cultural, or commercial goals. •

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • Most scientific fields are the subjects of intense research which result in the continual expansion of knowledge in the discipline. • A pseudo-scientific field evolves very little since it was first established. The small amount of research and experimentation that is carried out is generally done more to justify the belief than to extend it.

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • Scientists commonly seek out counterexamples or findings that appear to be inconsistent with accepted theories. • In pseudo-sciences, a challenge to accepted dogma is often considered a hostile act if not heresy, and leads to bitter disputes or even schisms.

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • In science observations or data that are not consistent with current scientific understanding, once shown to be credible, generate intense interest among scientists and stimulate additional studies. • In a pseudoscience observations or data that are not consistent with established beliefs tend to be ignored or actively suppressed.

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • Science is a process in which each principle must be tested in the crucible of experience and remains subject to being questioned or rejected at any time. • The major tenets and principles of pseudoscience are often not falsifiable, and are unlikely ever to be altered or shown to be wrong.

Isreal Flying rabbis Fight Swine Flu with Prayer,and Shofer Israel - On Monday morning an Arkia airlines plane took off from Ben Gurion Airport carrying rabbis and Kabbalists and flew over the country in a flight aimed at preventing the swine flu virus from spreading in Israel through prayers.

How can you recognize pseudoscience? • Scientific ideas and concepts must stand or fall on their own merits, based on existing knowledge and on evidence. • Pseudoscientific concepts tend to be shaped by individual egos and personalities, almost always by individuals who are not in contact with mainstream science. They often invoke authority (a famous name, for example) for support.

CARL SAGAN'S BALONEY DETECTION KIT • Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts • Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view. • Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities"). • Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy. • Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours. • Quantify, wherever possible. • If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. • "Ochkam's razor" - if there are two hypothesis that explain the data equally well choose the simpler. • Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?

Boundary Detection Kit Fairness Question: If I were to ask the holders of the claim or belief if they and their beliefs were fairly treated, how would they respond?

Boundary Detection Kit 1. How reliable is the source of the claim? 2. Does this source make similar claims? 3. Have the claims been verified by another source?

4.How does this fit with what we know about the world and how it works? 5. Has any one, including the claimant gone out of their way to disprove the claim or has only confirmatory evidence been sought?

Boundary Detection Kit 6.In the absence of clearly defined proof, does the preponderance of evidence converge to the claimant’s or a different one? 7. Is the claimant employing the accepted rules of reason and tools of research or have these been abandoned for others favorable to the claimants conclusion?

Boundary Detection Kit 8. Has the claimant provided a different explanation or just denies existing one? 9. If claimant provides an explanation does it explain as much as the current one? 10. Does the claimant’s biases drive the conclusion?

Marks of Pseudoscience or Bogus Science 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15.

A lack of well-controlled, reproducible experimental support. (by definition) Over reliance on anecdotal evidence. Play on supposed inconsistencies in science. Attempt to explain the (so far) unexplainable. Appeal to mysteries & myths. Argument by analogy. Argument by spurious similarity. Abuse of well-known scientists by; a. inferring they would agree with them. b. quoting them out of context. Over reliance on surveys and statistical arguments Filtering data. The “grab-bag” approach to data. Use of anachronistic arguments. Arguing against long-dead theories. Use of irrefutable hypothesis. Refusal to revise in spite of being proven wrong. Lack of controlled experiments Grab bag approach to gathering evidence. Use of irrefutable hypothesis Appeals to mysteries and myths

More marks of Pseudoscience or Bogus Science • Makes Pitch to News Media instead of bona fide Scientific Journals • Makes claims of suppression • Proposes effect nearly impossible to detect • Evidence to support idea is mostly anecdotal • Works in isolation • Proposes new law of nature to explain discovery

Examples of Pseudoscience or Bogus Science • • • • * • • • • • • • • • • •

Dianetics Worlds in Collision Creationism Astrology acupuncture astrology Bermuda triangle biorhythms codependency creationism and creation science hollow Earth hypnosis intelligent design morphic resonance UFO’s vs. SETI Remote Viewing

Bad Science • • • • • • • • •

Frequently deliberately dishonest Overlooks facts Misinterprets Presents incorrect data Data Incomplete or absent Many hidden variables Unreliable or anecdotal data Exhibits researcher bias Poor preparation or inadequate education

Revising Remote Viewing Protocol Do away with unclear drawings. Have simple patterns hidden out of sight and revealed to no one. Have a limited number of patterns for remote viewing so probability of choosing the correct pattern easily calculated.

Alien thinking •

Not many scientists are prepared to take tales of alien abduction seriously, but John Mack, a Harvard professor who was killed in a road accident in north London last year, did. Ten years on from a row which nearly lost him his job, hundreds of people who claim they were abducted still revere him.

Good or Bad Science •

Pylons 'may be a leukemia risk' The researchers looked at high voltage power linesLiving too close to overhead power lines appears to increase the risk of childhood leukemia, researchers say. A major study found children who had lived within 200 meters of high voltage lines at birth had a 70% higher risk of leukemia than those 600m or more away.

The Borderlands of Science Shermer, (2001) • Normal Science – Empirical claims – Vast body of evidence

• Borderland Science – Empirical work – Growing body of evidence

• Pseudoscience – Fake science disguised as normal science – Lacks evidence

10 different areas of inquiry: • • • • •

Acupuncture Astrology Big Bang Big Foot Chiropractic

• Heliocentrism • Hypnosis • Neurophysiology of Brain Function • Punctuated Equilibrium • Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI)

The Borderlands of Science Shermer, (2001) • • • • • • •

Heliocentrism, .9 Neurophysiology of Brain Function, .8 Punctuated equilibrium, .7 ……normal science SETI, Hypnosis, .5 Chiropractic, .4 ……………borderland science Acupuncture, .3 Astrology, Big Foot, .1 ………pseudoscience

A Piece Of The True Cross How Would One Determine that a hunk Of Wood was part of the True Cross, the Cross upon Which Christ was Crucified ?

Acupuncture

• Pseudo-Science or Not

Annals of Internal Medicine • A Randomized Clinical Trial of Acupuncture Compared with Sham Acupuncture in Fibromyalgia • Nassim P. Assefi, MD; Karen J. Sherman, PhD; Clemma Jacobsen, MS; Jack Goldberg, PhD; Wayne R. Smith, PhD; and Dedra Buchwald, MD

Annals of Internal Medicine • Background: Fibromyalgia is a common chronic pain condition for which patients frequently use acupuncture. • Objective: To determine whether acupuncture relieves pain in fibromyalgia. • Design: Randomized, sham-controlled trial in which participants, data collection staff, and data analysts were blinded to treatment group. • Setting: Private acupuncture offices in the greater Seattle, Washington, metropolitan area.

• Patients: 100 adults with fibromyalgia.

Annals of Internal Medicine • Setting: Private acupuncture offices in the greater Seattle, Washington, metropolitan area. • Patients: 100 adults with fibromyalgia.

Annals of Internal Medicine • Intervention: Twice-weekly treatment for 12 weeks with an acupuncture program that was specifically designed to treat fibromyalgia, or 1 of 3 sham acupuncture treatments: acupuncture for an unrelated condition, needle insertion at nonacupoint locations, or noninsertive simulated acupuncture.

Annals of Internal Medicine Measurements: The primary outcome was subjective pain as measured by a 10-cm visual analogue scale ranging from 0 (no pain) to 10 (worst pain ever). Measurements were obtained at baseline; 1, 4, 8, and 12 weeks of treatment; and 3 and 6 months after completion of treatment. Participant blinding and adverse effects were ascertained by self-report. The primary outcomes were evaluated by pooling the 3 sham-control groups and comparing them with the group that received acupuncture to treat fibromyalgia.

Annals of Internal Medicine • Results: The mean subjective pain rating among patients who received acupuncture for fibromyalgia did not differ from that in the pooled sham acupuncture group (mean between-group difference, 0.5 cm [95% CI, –0.3 cm to 1.2 cm]). Participant blinding was adequate throughout the trial, and no serious adverse effects were noted.

Annals Of Internal Medicine • Limitations: A prescription of acupuncture at fixed points may differ from acupuncture administered in clinical settings, in which therapy is individualized and often combined with herbal supplementation and other adjunctive measures. A usual-care comparison group was not studied.

Annals Of Internal Medicine • Conclusion: Acupuncture was no better than sham acupuncture at relieving pain in fibromyalgia. • 5 July 2005 | Volume 143 Issue 1 | Pages 10-19

Normal Science, Non-science Borderland Science • Normal : Evolution, Quantum Physics, Plate Techtonics, Big Bang, Chemistry, Biology, Geology. • Non : Creationism, Remote Viewing, Big Foot ,UFO’s, Bible Codes Borderlands: String Theory, SETI, Hypnosis, Chiropractic, Acupuncture

Acupuncture • * In United States, acupuncture was approved with FDA. • * Health insurance covers TCM • * There’s argument that TCM is Pseudoscience because it was not tested for true science •

FDA • FDA Removes Bar to Coverage Of Acupuncture by Insurance; Needles Are Classified as Medical DevicesThe Washington Post | March 30, 1996| Rick Weiss | Copyright

FDA • The Food and Drug Administration yesterday classified acupuncture needles as medical devices for "general use" by trained professionals.The agency did not go so far as to state that acupuncture is effective for any particular condition, an outcome many acupuncturists had hoped for.

Cranks or Psudoscientist • Cranks do not understand how the scientific Process works. • Cranks claim that they’re misunderstood. • Cranks see themselves like Galileo • Cranks tend to paranoia. • Cranks see themselves as geniuses. • Cranks regard their colleagues as blockheads. • He feels persecuted. • Attacks renowned scientists as Einstein. • Speaks in made up jargon

Why Do Cranks Lack A Knowledge Filter? • Lack of training or out of date training • A true believer • Hypothesis seeking evidence instead of evidence seeking an hypothesis.

The Knowledge Filter If you knew the truth, the knowledge filter is a simple one to one comparison. Generally the truth doesn’t exist. The world is not a yes and no proposition. It is complex and fuzzy. What then is the knowledge filter, it is the scientific method.

Scientific Method Consider the aphorism, an “apple a day keeps the doctor away.” How can one test the validity of this advice?

Apply the Knowledge Filter 1. 2. 3. 4.

Power Towers Cell Phone Safety Ghosts Nessie the loch Ness monster

Nano-scientist's Peer Review •

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One of the most brilliant scientific researchers of recent years stands accused of committing an elaborate scientific fraud, fooling many eminent experts. Bell's internal inquiry on Schoen was damning

•

In 2001, a team led by Hendrik Schoen appeared to have invented the smallest organic transistor ever made.

•

Only a single molecule in length, it was hailed as a huge breakthrough, capable of transforming the world of computers.

•

But, as BBC Two's Horizon program shows this week, the "breakthrough" led to his disgrace and began a cascade of events that would result in one of the most intriguing science stories of recent years.

•

When he published his work, Schoen's tiny transistor was regarded as a discovery that could have blasted open the world of nanotechnology - where cheap, powerful computers could transform the world in which we live.

Bad Science

Poly-Water and Cold Fusion Case Histories

Outline • The Russian revolution – Fedyakin and Deryagin – Experimental setup – Results

• Spreading to the West – Lippincott and Allen

• Involvement of the media – Donahoe article

• Polybunking De Water – Rousseau et al

In the Beginning… • Nikolai N. Fedyakin – Kostrama Polytechnical Institute – Found spontaneous water condensation in capillaries under certain experimental conditions (1962) • Different properties than normal water

• Boris V. Deryagin – Surface Forces Laboratory at the Institute of Physical Chemistry of the Soviet Academy of Sciences – Took over research • Perfected experimental technique for production of condensate

Experimental Setup

Process and Results • Condensate Properties – – – –

Freezing “Interval” ~ 243 K to 213 K Boiling Point ~ 523 K to 573 K Density 1.4 g/cm3 Thermal expansion coefficient ~ 1.5 times normal water

Spreading to the West • Ellis R. Lippincott U. of Maryland – Infrared Spectroscopy • Very different from normal water • Taken as evidence of polymeric structure

Polywater Water Rousseau 57

DeBunking

• Denis Rousseau and Sergio Porto at USC – Use Raman scattering for spectroscopy – Condensate turns to black char • Polywater should not do this • Combination of Na, Cl, and SO4

– Proponents-contaminants in Rousseau’s but not theirs – Rousseau uses infrared spectroscopy on sweat Polywater

Sweat Rousseau 57

Discussion and Conclusion • Polywater as a Pathologic Science – (Langmuir 1953)

• People remained divided on the subject for a long time • The epidemic of poly-water was fuelled by intense media coverage

Junk Science

The Strange, But True, Story of Cold Fusion

The Announcement • March 23, 1989 – Salt Lake City • “Two scientists have successfully created a sustained nuclear fusion reaction at room temperature in a chemistry laboratory at the University of Utah.” • “The greatest invention since the discovery of fire.”

Pons and Fleischmann

Dr. Stanley Pons

Dr. Martin Fleischman

Hot Fusion • Because of the electrostatic repulsion between the deuterium nuclei high temperatures are used to bring them together to fuse. • Magnetically confined plasmas are used to generate the high temperatures.

Hot Fusion: Tokomak

The Cold Fusion Machine • The Cold fusion “machine” was a beaker of “heavy water” (D2O) with a couple of electrodes and a small power supply.

A Media Explosion • Cold Fusion became a instant media event. • P & F were interviewed on all the major news networks. • Congress scheduled hearings on CF.

Harwell • Working with advice from Fleischmann the Harwell Nuclear Lab conducted the most extensive set of cold fusion tests in the world. • Cells were tested in numerous configurations for heat, neutrons, gammas, tritium, and Helium-3. • No evidence for nuclear processes in any of the experiments. • “Sometimes brilliant people have mad ideas” – J. Williams, Dir. Harwell Lab

The Utah Physicists • Mike Salamon lead a team of physicists from the University of Utah to make extensive radiation measurements in Pons’ laboratory. • Na(I) detectors searched for Gamma-rays from neutrons, and protons. • No signal was seen above background after 831 hours of measurement. • “upper bound of 10 picowatts of energy generated by any known nuclear process”

What Happened? And what can we learn?

Pons & Fleischmann • • • • •

Was it a fraud? The rush to announce. “The explosion.” Isolation from peers. “Sometimes brilliant people have mad ideas.”

The Science Community • Meeting expectations. • The good, the bad and the normal distribution. • “Seek simplicity, and distrust it” A. N. Whitehead

Desktop apparatus yields stream of neutrons Now Putterman, a physicist at the University of California, Los Angeles, has turned a tiny crystal into a particle accelerator. When its electric field is focused by a tungsten needle, it fires deuterium ions into a • target so fast that the colliding nuclei fuse to create a stream of neutrons.Putterman is not claiming to have created a source of virtually unlimited energy, because the reaction isn't self-sustaining. But until now, achieving any kind of fusion in the lab has required bulky accelerators with large electricity supplies. Replacing that with a small crystal is revolutionary. "The amazing thing is that the crystal can be used as an accelerator without plugging it in to a power station," says Putterman.

Table-top fusion 'demonstrated' • Previous claims for desktop fusion have been highly controversial. A US team has created a "pocketsized" nuclear fusion reactor that generates neutrons, Nature magazine reports.

The Bowen Technique Some Personal Experiences of What It Is, What It Does, and What It Doesn’t •

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•

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The Bowen Technique addresses the whole body, which responds to the degree to which it is able. The Technique involves a sequence of light pressure movements of the practitioner's fingers and thumbs over the skin of the patient, at precise locations. Muscles are "twanged" like the strings of a guitar. The technique involves a basic treatment, with add-ons for particular ailments, including Frozen Shoulder, Tennis Elbow, or Strained Hamstrings. The sequence of moves is punctuated by intervals, during which time the patient's body is given time to respond to the moves. At first Tim Willcocks found he needed the crutch of his notes on the technique, his "Bowen Bible" and referred to it continually, even during treatments. However, at an environmental camp in Slovakia, he had gained enough confidence to work from his own knowledge. He has been using the Bowen Technique for two and a half years and gives some examples of successful cases, including cases of: breathing difficulties, Fibromyalgia, lower back pain and frozen shoulder, all of which responded well to between two and five treatments. Tim went to Bosnia with the Healing Hands Network and was able to help in relieving the suffering of so many people whose lives had been damaged by the war. He went to Bosnia full of enthusiasm for Bowen and return still with that enthusiasm, but also with the realisation that Bowen is one ray in a rainbow spectrum of healing modalities.

'intelligent design'

The Scramble to Confirm or Refute • Numerous physics and chemistry labs began experiments using the limited information available. • Large scale efforts at MIT, Los Alamos, Harwell, Yale, and Caltech were launched.

Confirmations • • • • • •

Jones, et. al. (BYU Neutrons) Georgia Tech – Neutrons Texas A & M – Excess Heat Seattle – Tritium Small colleges and independent researchers Bob’s Discount House of Knowledge

Doubts • Why are they still breathing? – Heat vs. neutron output.

• Are the nuclei really any closer? • Where are the control runs? • What’s wrong with that peak? – The MIT gang goes to the video replay.

Gamma-Rays • The gamma-ray peak as presented in the first P & F paper submitted to the Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry (JEC). 2200

The Video Peak

Comparing Peaks

The APS Meeting • Caltech: Steve Koonin and Nathan Lewis • Questions about the Calorimetry – Closed cell vs. Open cell – Raw data?

• A lot of negative results.

Excess Heat

Retractions • Georgia Tech – Temperature (not Neutrons) • Texas A & M – Ungrounded thermistor (not Excess Heat ) • Seattle – “Remind me how a mass spec works again.” (not Tritium )

Nano-scientist's dark secret

•

In 2001, a team led by Hendrik Schoen appeared to have invented the smallest organic transistor ever made.

•

Only a single molecule in length, it was hailed as a huge breakthrough, capable of transforming the world of computers.

•

But, as BBC Two's Horizon programme shows this week, the "breakthrough" led to his disgrace and began a cascade of events that would result in one of the most intriguing science stories of recent years.

•

When he published his work, Schoen's tiny transistor was regarded as a discovery that could have blasted open the world of nanotechnology where cheap, powerful computers could transform the world in which we live.

Stuff of legend •

Transistors are the minute "switches" that control the flow of information in a computer chip. The more you can fit on to a chip, the more powerful your computer.

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Schoen's transistor was far smaller than anything possible on a silicon chip, so it seemed to herald a new age when computer power could grow to undreamed of levels.

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It was the latest in a long line of great discoveries made by Schoen. He was only in his early 30s and yet had already made advances in the world of superconductors and lasers.

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His name had become so prominent in the scientific journals that to many of his rivals he had taken on legendary status.

Growing doubts

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What he had apparently achieved was a way of connecting up dye-like molecules in a transistor circuit. When the circuit was switched on, they found it had the same characteristics as a silicon transistor.

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It was a double breakthrough. Schoen's transistor was not just very small, it was made from simple organic molecules.

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It promised incredibly cheap computer chips that did not need to be manufactured in hugely expensive fabrication plants, but instead could be custom-built, at a fraction of the cost, in simple laboratories.

Growing doubts

•

What he had apparently achieved was a way of connecting up dye-like molecules in a transistor circuit. When the circuit was switched on, they found it had the same characteristics as a silicon transistor.

•

It was a double breakthrough. Schoen's transistor was not just very small, it was made from simple organic molecules.

•

It promised incredibly cheap computer chips that did not need to be manufactured in hugely expensive fabrication plants, but instead could be custom-built, at a fraction of the cost, in simple laboratories.

doubts •

Many of Hendrik Schoen's fantastic claims just could not be repeated in the lab by rival scientists, and many were getting frustrated. It had got to the point where there were serious whisperings about his credibility.

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Analysis of his papers going back through previous years provided more evidence of suspicious data.

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Schoen's employers, Bell Laboratories, instantly launched an independent investigation into his conduct and the verdict was damning.

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After its findings were released, Bell fired Schoen. Nature, the journal which had published much of his work, retracted the suspect papers triggering a huge amount of soul searching in the scientific community.

Boundary Detection Kit

• How Reliable is The Source of the claim? • Does the Source make similar claims?

• Have the Claims been verified by another Source? • How does this fit with the real world and how it works? • Has Anyone especially the claimant make attempts to disprove the claim or only attempts to confirm the claim?

Boundary Detection Kit • In the absence of clearly define proof , does the evidence point to the claimants conclusion or to a different one? • Has the claimant abandoned the rules of reasoning and the tools of science? • Has claimant offered an alternative explanation or merely denies the current explanation?

Boundary Detection Kit • Is the claimant’s explanation as comprehensive as the currently accepted explanation? Does bias or beliefs drive the explanation?

Spreading to the West • Leland C. Allen – First methodical theoretical investigation – Found feasible structure— cyclometric water • Roughly the same internal energy as normal water • Compatible with high density and viscosity of polywater

Franks, F., Polywater, p.93

Media Involvement • F. J. Donahoe (1969) – Most Dangerous Material on Earth – Mass-media gets involved

The Number of Publications Per Year Franks, F., Polywater, p. 120

Lehigh Conference (1970) • The “Showdown” between believers and doubters • Nothing much resolved – Lippincott • trouble producing spectra without contaminants

– Allen • new calculations cast doubt on polywater

– Denis L. Rousseau • introduced theory of organic contaminants

A Nuclear Fusion Primer • In nuclear fusion two light nuclei are combined into a heavier nucleus, releasing energy. • Deuterium, 2H, can be used in D-D fusion to release approximately 4.00 MeV per fusion. p

n

Deuterium

Two Pathways D + D → p + 3H p

p

n

p

D + D →n + 3He p

n

n n p

H

3

3

He

n

p n p

p

n

n

Energy Of Fusion • In the D + D → p + 3H reaction most of the energy (3 MeV) is carried away by the proton. • In the D + D →n + 3He reaction the neutron carries most of the energy (2.45 MeV).

The Cold Fusion Experiment How did they do that?

The Cold Fusion Cell • The anode is a coil of platinum and the cathode a palladium rod. • The cell is filled with heavy water and immersed in a water bath. • LiOD is added to the heavy water as the electrolyte.

The Cold Fusion Process • The electric current splits the D2O molecules into D2 gas and OD– ions at the cathode. • The ions migrate to the anode and form D2O and O2. • Palladium has a great affinity for hydrogen and deuterium ions are absorbed into the cathode – up to a density of thousands of times that of deuterium gas. • The closely packed deuterium nuclei fuse and release heat, neutrons, protons, etc.

The Signs of Fusion • • • • •

Excess Heat* Neutrons* Tritium* (?) 3 He Protons

The P & F Evidence Heat and Light

Excess Heat

Neutrons via Gammas • Some neutrons would be absorbed by the H nuclei in the water releasing a 2.2 MeV gamma- ray. • P & F looked for these gammas.

Gamma-Rays • The gamma-ray peak as presented in the first P & F paper submitted to the Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry (JEC).

The Reaction

Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one. Charles Mackay Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds 1841

The Scramble to Confirm or Refute • Numerous physics and chemistry labs began experiments using the limited information available. • Large scale efforts at MIT, Los Alamos, Harwell, Yale, and Caltech were launched.

Confirmations • • • • • •

Jones, et. al. (BYU Neutrons) Georgia Tech – Neutrons Texas A & M – Excess Heat Seattle – Tritium Small colleges and independent researchers Bob’s Discount House of Knowledge

Doubts • Why are they still breathing? – Heat vs. neutron output.

• Are the nuclei really any closer? • Where are the control runs? • What’s wrong with that peak? – The MIT gang goes to the video replay.

Gamma-Rays • The gamma-ray peak as presented in the first P & F paper submitted to the Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry (JEC). 2200

The Video Peak

Comparing Peaks

The APS Meeting • Caltech: Steve Koonin and Nathan Lewis • Questions about the Calorimetry – Closed cell vs. Open cell – Raw data?

• A lot of negative results.

Excess Heat

Retractions • Georgia Tech – Temperature (not Neutrons) • Texas A & M – Ungrounded thermistor (not Excess Heat ) • Seattle – “Remind me how a mass spec works again.” (not Tritium )