Probability And 1 - P

FIVE-STEP LESSON PLAN TEMPLATE Teacher:

Amy Li

Date:

5/28/09

Grade:

6

Subject

Math

VISION-SETTING: KNOW, SO, SHOW

FIVE-STEP LESSON PLAN OBJECTIVE. What is your objective?

Students will be able to find the probability of an event not happening, given the probability of an event happening. STANDARDS. How is this connected to the framework?

Statistics, Data Analysis, and Probability 3.3: Represent probabilities as ratios, proportions, decimals between 0 and 1, and percentages between 0 and 100 and verify that the probabilities computed are reasonable; know that if P is the probability of an event, 1 - P is the probability of an event not occurring. KEY POINTS. What knowledge and skills are embedded in the objective?

1. The total probability of an event happening or not happening is 1. 1

2. 1 can be expressed as 1, 1.0, 1.00, 1 ,

2 99 , 99 , 2

etc.

ASSESSMENT. Describe, briefly, what students will do to show you that they have mastered (or made progress toward) the objective. Attach your daily assessment, completed to include an exemplary student response that illustrates the expected level of rigor. Indicate whether you will administer the assessment as the independent practice or during the lesson closing.

Mini-Quiz

The table shows the types of shirts Brian owns.

1

The table shows the types of shirts Brian owns.

1

Color Shirts Green 3 Purple 12 White 5 Total 20 If he chooses a shirt without looking, what is the probability that it will be white? 5% A 25% B 40% C 50% D

Color Shirts Green 3 Purple 12 White 5 Total 20 If he chooses a shirt without looking, what is the probability that it will be white? 5% A 25% B 40% C 50% D On a spinner, the probability of winning free pizza is 0.26. What is the probability that you do not win free pizza? 0.26 A 0.64 B 0.74 C 0.84 D

2

1 2

On a spinner, the probability of winning free pizza is 0.26. What is the probability that you do not win free pizza? 0.26 A 0.64 B 0.74 C 0.84 D

2

1 2

DETERMINING METHODS: GO

FIVE-STEP LESSON PLAN TEMPLATE WARM UP (8 min.) Before the tardy bell rings, students are to check the instructions on the yellow checklist and do the following: pick up their workbooks, take out their Do Now worksheet, check their homework answers.

MATERIALS Do Now power point presentation

When the tardy bell rings, students will complete the 3 phases of the Do Now exercise: Math Wheel (addition and multiplication practice), Speed Challenge (mixed review on positive and negative integer operations), and Word Problem (CST released test question). While students are completing the Do Now, my two homework stampers are coming around to stamp homework for completion.

Do Now worksheet

Once time runs out on the Do Now, I review the answers (students volunteer). Students will check their answers and self-assign points. QUIZ (10 min.) The mini-quiz has 4 multiple choice questions on it. It is material that we reviewed in class yesterday and they had homework on it last night. Basically, this whole week is review. The course final is next Monday and I prioritized key standards that they struggled with, based on my tracker. 4. OPENING (1 min.) How will you communicate what is about to happen? How will you communicate how it will happen? How will you communicate its importance? How will you communicate connections to previous lessons? How will you engage students and capture their interest?

Today is our third chance at crossing off the box for SDAP 3.3. The first time we took a quiz, our class average was 28%. Right before the CST, our average was 46%. Tomorrow, you’re going to get one more opportunity to get 80% and cross off a box! In order to prepare, we’re going to combine several things that we know, fractions, decimals, and percents, as well as probability. The practice in class today and at home tonight will help us reach our goal. 3. INTRODUCTION OF NEW MATERIAL (8 min.) How will you explain/demonstrate all knowledge/skills required of the objective, so that students begin to actively internalize key points? Which potential misunderstandings do you anticipate? How will you proactively mitigate them? How/when will you check for understanding? How will you address misunderstandings? How will you clearly state and model behavioral expectations? Why will students be engaged?

If you are watching the news and the weatherman says that there’s a 60% chance of rain tomorrow, what is the chance that it won’t rain? How do you know? What if he had really exact measurements and said that there was a 62.5% chance that it would rain? What would be the probability that it wouldn’t rain? How do you know? So if it’s a percent, we know that we can subtract from 100%. Always 100%. And 100% = 100.0% = 100.000%. Let’s go back to our Number Sense projects. Remember how we could represent a number 6 different ways? Let’s rewrite this percent problem as decimals instead. What is 60% as a decimal? What is 100% as a decimal? Let’s do the subtraction. If we converted this decimal back to a percent, do we get the same answer as before? Yes! So if you get a decimal problem, you know to subtract from 1. If you get a percent problem, you know to subtract from 100%. Let’s look at fractions. How can I represent 1 as a fraction? Write down your favorite way. So if we had a bag of 12 marbles and there were 12 different colors, what is the probability of drawing a white marble? What is the probability of not drawing a white marble? Let’s count the ways. Did you know that there’s a faster way? Just like we subtracted from 1 and 100%, we can subtract the fractions. How can we represent 1 using fractions? If 12 is our denominator, it should be 12/12. 2. GUIDED PRACTICE (8 min.) How will students practice all knowledge/skills required of the objective, with your support, such that they continue to internalize the key points? How will you ensure that students have multiple opportunities to practice, with exercises scaffolded from easy to hard? How/when will you monitor performance to check for understanding? How will you address misunderstandings? How will you clearly state and model behavioral expectations? Why will students be engaged?

Let’s open our workbooks to pg. 121. We are going to #1-12. Let’s skip to #12. In this example, there is a spinner. How many different things can the spinner land on? What do we do with that number (denominator)? The question asks us what the probability is that we don’t

REINFORCEMENT

FIVE-STEP LESSON PLAN TEMPLATE