Prediction On Economic Situation-scenario.mht

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida File No.: 104.Iraq.2-5

Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning Summary Report April 2006

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Danida File No.: 104.Iraq.2-5

Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning Summary Report April 2006

Report no.

61515-TEC2-Summary

Issue no.

1 (Draft Final)

Date of issue

28th April 2006

Prepared

JBA

Checked

DKA

Approved

JBA

1

Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

Table of Contents Executive Summary

3

List of Abbreviations

7

List of Names

8

1 1.1 1.2

Introduction Objectives of the Study Scope of Work

11 11 12

2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5

Post War Iraq Background Political Developments Security Situation Funding of the Reconstruction Socio-Economic Development

14 14 14 15 16 16

3 3.1 3.2 3.3

The Umm Qasr - Baghdad Transport Corridor Study Area Transport Forecasting Institutional Framework

19 19 19 21

4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

Transportation Infrastructure Ports Port Approaches Inland Waterways Roads Bridges

23 23 27 29 29 32

5 5.1 5.2

Main Findings of ITCS Phases 1 & 2 Transport Sector in General Ports & Approaches

33 33 33

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

5.3 5.4

Roads Bridges

37 40

6 6.1 6.2 6.3

Capacity Building Training Procurement Data Exchange

41 41 43 45

7 7.1 7.2

Way Forward Finalising Phase 2 Phase 3 - Implementation

47 47 49

Table of Appendices Appendix A: Appendix B: Appendix C: Appendix D: Appendix E: Appendix F: Appendix G:

Phase 2: Planning; Transport Economics Phase 2: Planning; Institutional Component Phase 2: Planning; Ports & Approaches Phase 2: Planning; Roads Phase 2: Planning; Bridges Phase 2: Planning; Environmental Investigations Phase 2: Planning; GIS & Training

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

Executive Summary With the ousting of the Baath regime and opening of the economy, Iraq is now facing new and demanding challenges. Decades of warfare, isolation and sanctions has left the Iraqi economy in shatters, with a drastic decline in living standard for the Iraqi’s as a result. The infrastructure is in a poor condition and huge investments are needed to get the Country back on track. Focus in the international support and funding to achieve this goal, has been to remove the existing bottlenecks in the infrastructure so that the reconstruction process can start. The Danish Foreign Ministry (Danida) has assigned COWI A/S to study and survey the important Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq. The study is part of a more comprehensive Master Plan Study (ITMP) for the whole Iraqi Transport Sector.

Figure 0.1

Transport corridor studied in the ITCS.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

The objective of the study is to: •

Supplement the ITMP study within Ports, Waterways and Main Roads,

•

Identify and provide a prioritised list of transport infrastructure projects in the corridor with focus on Ports, Waterways and Main Roads,

•

Capacity building of the Iraqi transport sector within the transport corridor.

The scope of work includes: •

Procurement of survey equipment

•

Training of Iraqi staff in surveying,

•

Data collection

•

Survey of Ports, Waterways and Roads

•

Establish GIS database,

•

Transport demand forecasting and capacity assessments,

•

Identification of transport infrastructure projects in the corridor,

•

Hydraulic modelling & environmental evaluations,

•

Institutional review,

•

Economic feasibility assessment.

The ITCS is split into two Phases: Inception Phase with a duration of 16 weeks and a Planning Phase with a duration of 24 weeks. An interim period is allowed between the two phases for review by Danida and detailed scoping and planning of Phase 2. The Summary Report provides a brief description of the background, the tasks carried out, the transportation infrastructure in the Corridor and the main findings of the Study. Phase 2 reports of all the subtasks carried out are provided in the Appendices (A to G) to the report. Main findings and conclusions from the ITCS are: •

It has been difficult to secure Iraqi Governmental ownership of the project due to the turbulent political situation following the first free Iraqi election held 30th January 2005. Official commitment, in the context of signed MOU's from the concerned ministries and authorities, is still pending. The planned training and handing over of survey equipment has thus been postponed until these formalities have been sorted out - most likely with the formation of the new ("permanent") Iraqi Government.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

•

Cooperation has been established with Engineering Consulting Bureau in Basrah University, Iraq, who has acted as local consultant to COWI for the survey activities inside Iraq. ECB staff has received training in state-of-the-art survey techniques prior to carrying out the survey activities inside Iraq. Likewise, cooperation has been established with a local Institutional Expert: Mr. Ammar Mohammed Elattiya, who assisted the COWI Institutional Expert in the assessment of the Institutional Framework for the Iraqi Transport Sector.

•

It is assessed that the transport infrastructure in the Corridor (Ports and Roads) is now generally in a workable condition. However, considerable rehabilitation is still needed for the infrastructure to reach a standard comparable to the one in other countries in the region. Regardless, the need is now shifted from emergency repair to more medium and long term maintenance and rehabilitation investments. This implies an urgent need for strategic and detailed planning in the different transport sectors. General management routines shall be implemented for the transport infrastructure and relevant staff in the authorities and executive organisations shall be trained in these.

•

From initial contacts to MoT and in line with the preliminary conclusions from the ITMP and supported by the findings in the ITCS, the Iraqi waterways will not be a priority means of transportation in the short to medium term. Thus detailed survey in the ITCS has been confined to the port approaches/waterways leading to the main ports located in the Khor Az Zubayr (Umm Qasr and Az Zubayar Ports) and in Shatt Al Arab (Abu Floos and Al Maqal).

•

Coordination and review with the ITMP was carried out in the Inception Phase. The ITMP is now completed and handed over to the Iraqi Government. Despite several calls COWI has not succeeded in getting access to the final ITMP reporting.

•

With the opening of the Iraqi economy and the expected decentralisation of the administration and changes towards market economy, there will be a demand for reforms and capacity building within the transport sector. The transport sector is still relying on the legislation and administrative procedures from the Baath Party era, with a highly centralised mode of operandi. Decentralisation will assign more autonomy to local authorities, which in turn must enhance skills and capabilities to meet the new challenges. Training and other capacity building measures will be essential in this process - also to break "bad habits".

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

It is recommended that: •

The important outstanding Phase 2 activities are carried out as soon as soon as official commitment is received from the concerned Iraqi ministries and authorities.

•

The format for data transfer is agreed between Danida and the Recipient.

•

Phase 3 - Implementation of the ITCS - as described in Chapter 3 - focusing on urgent planning and capacity building aspects for the concerned ministries and authorities, is implemented when coordination and detailing of scope has been agreed between Danida and the new Iraqi Government.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

List of Abbreviations The following abbreviations may be used within this report: CEB UNDP UNDG WB IRFFI CPA Danida DG DKK ECB EIA IPA ITMP ITCS MM MoCH SCRB MoT GCPI MoWR PM QA The Project ToR UBG UBS

Consulting Engineering Bureau (Engineering College, University of Baghdad) United Nations Development Programme United Nations Development Group World Bank International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq Coalition Provisional Authority Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Danish International Development Assistance) Director General Danish Kroner Engineering Consulting Bureau (Engineering College, University of Basrah) Environmental Impact Assessment Iraqi Port Authority Iraqi Transport Master Plan Iraq Transport Corridor Study (= The Project) Man month Ministry of Construction and Housing State Commission for Roads and Bridges Ministry of Transport General Company for Ports in Iraq (= IPA) Ministry of Water Resources Project Manager Quality Assurance The Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Terms of Reference University of Baghdad University of Basrah

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

List of Names The following table lists the adopted spelling of commonly referred to areas and towns.

Governorate

Basrah

Missan

Thi Qar

List of Names - Iraq Capital Districts

Basrah

Amarah

Al Faw Abu Al Khasib Az Zubayer Al Qurnah Al Madiana Qal'at Salih Al Kahla Al Mijar Al Kabir Al Miamona Ali al Gharbi Chibayish Suq ash Shiyukh Shatrah Refal

Nassriyah

Muthanna

Samawah

Qadissiya

Diwaniya

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Al Khithir Rumaitha As Salman Al Hamza Afak Shamiya

Towns Umm Qasr Safwan Al Harthah An Nashwah Taliha Al Huwar Al Masharah Al Adl Ali Al Sharqi As Salam At Tar Al Hammar Al Fuhud Karmat Bani Sa'id Al Islah Al Dawaya Al Gharraf An Nasr Al Bathah Qal'at Sukhar Al Fajr Al Majd Al Warka Najmi Al Bda Sideer Shannafiuah Shafiya As Sinniyah Sumar

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

List of Names - Iraq Capital Districts

Governorate

Wassit

Kut

Babylon

Hilla

Najaf

Najaf

Kerbala

Kerbala

Al Hayy Al Noamania Badrah Al Aziziya As Suwayrah Al Hashimiyah Al Mahawil Al Misiab Al Mahmudiya Al Kufa

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Towns Shaykh Sa'd Jassan Zubaydiah

Al Qasim Al Imam Abu Gharaq Al Kifl Al Hindiyah Al Qadisiyah Al Mishkhab Al Abbasiyah Al Jadwal al Gharbi Al Hussayniyah Al Hurr

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

1

Introduction

The Danish Foreign Ministry (Danida) has entrusted COWI A/S the task of studying the transport corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq (ITCS). The study is part of a more comprehensive Master Plan study (ITMP) for the whole Iraqi Transport sector. The ITCS shall analyse the requirements for short, medium and long term improvements to the above transport corridor, with focus on Ports, Waterways and Roads and the inter-modal exchange of goods between the different transport modes. An important element of the study is the capacity building within relevant Iraqi ministries, authorities and engineering organisations. This capacity building involves survey training and procurement of miscellaneous survey equipment.

1.1

Objectives of the Study

The Terms of Reference (ToR) defines the development objective of the study as: •

The infrastructure and transport system in the Umm Qasr- Baghdad Transport Corridor meet the demands for transport capacity at the end of the planning period 2004-2020, and is managed/operated in a way that maximises the economic and social welfare without compromising the sustainability of the environment.

The immediate objective is defined as: •

A staged and cost-effective, socially balanced and environmentally sustainable plan for improved Road, Port and Waterway transport services in the Umm Qasr-Baghdad Transport Corridor.

•

A process for establishment of institutional set-up to ensure national ownership of the plan and its implementation.

•

Capacity building within the Iraq Transport sector. The training element has been identified as an important element in the project.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

To meet these objectives the following main issues has been addressed in the study: •

Current status of the transport infrastructure in the corridor has be assessed (roads, ports and port approaches) through inspections and condition surveys. The COWI teams have coordinated their activities with other stakeholders as far possible, such as the Italian Consortium for the Iraqi Transport Master Plan (ITMP) study and the donor organisations under IRFFI. Sharing of information and findings is essential to avoid duplications and to provide a cost and time effective execution of the present study. The study has focused on port, port approaches and main roads in the corridor.

•

Projection of future transportation demand has been made along with capacity assessment of critical infrastructure (short term 1-2 years, medium term 5 years and long term 10-15 years)

•

Set-up of a prioritised list of actions to establish a cost-effective and sustainable transport system in the corridor.

Distinction has been made between the immediate objectives to get the transport system up running as effective as possible under the present constraints (shortage of equipment, lack of maintenance, poor organisation etc.) and the medium and more long term objectives of a cost effective and sustainable transport system in the corridor. The study has addressed both the short term objective and the medium and long term objectives e.g. by addressing the critical issue of a future split between private and public sector involvement in the transport infrastructure also taking into consideration a sustainable approach that on the one hand recognises the traditional governmental/centralised way of running the infrastructure with modern and often more cost effective private or private/public partnership.

1.2

Scope of Work

The ITCS has involved the following activities: •

Data collection and review, hereunder establishment of a GIS database,

•

Training of ECB staff in surveying (training of GCPI/SCRB staff is postponed),

•

Surveying of main transport infrastructure,

•

Assessment of ports, port approaches and main roads in the Corridor,

•

Hydraulic and sediment modelling,

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

•

Preliminary environmental impact assessment,

•

Transport demand forecasting,

•

Capacity assessment of critical transport infrastructure,

•

Institutional review

•

Financial parameters and economic feasibility evaluations

The Summary Report provides an introduction to the project, the background and a brief summary of the main findings with reference to the Phase 2 reports attached in the Appendices (A to G).

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2

Post War Iraq

2.1

Background

For centuries transportation of goods within Iraq has centred on the multi-modal transport corridor between Basrah and Baghdad. The main import terminal was, until the early 1980s, the Port of Basrah (Al Maqal) where ocean-going vessels were able to navigate via Shatt Al Arab. The Shatt Al Arab runs from the confluence of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, beyond Basrah, to the Gulf and forms the border between Iraq and Iran. The Port of Basrah was effectively closed during the war between Iraq and Iran in the 1980'ies. The port is still out of operation due to the presence of a large number of wrecks in the port and waterway, the damaged infrastructure in the port, shoals within the river and the dispute between Iraq and Iran on the navigation of Shatt Al Arab. The closure of the Port of Basrah led to the construction of the New Port at Umm Qasr, which is located just within the Iraqi territorial waters of the Arabian Gulf in Khor Az Zubayr. The port is linked to the river system via the Shatt Al Basrah, but at present transportation of goods is by land, mainly road. The transport corridor from the south to Baghdad is still the main transport artery employing several means of transportation and combinations thereof. At the same time the recent ousting of the Baath regime, has changed the outlook and concept of transport in the whole region. Neighbouring countries are considering revival of ancient trade routes and the development of new transport corridors from the Gulf to the Mediterranean through Iraq. Rebuilding of Iraq's infrastructure, neglected for several decades, is thus a priority in the much needed reconstruction process and revival of the Iraqi economy.

2.2

Political Developments

Since the ousting of the Baath regime in April 2003, Iraq has found itself in a political/economical transition period. The Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) controlled Iraq from April 2003 until June 2004, where an interim Iraqi government took over. Parliamentary elec-

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

tions were held on 30th January 2005, paving the way for the appointment of the first freely elected government in Iraq. An interim constitution was approved in March 2004 under the name Transitional Administrative Law. A new interim government was formed following the parliamentary election in January 2005. This Government was responsible for drafting the new constitution which was approved after a referendum on 15th October 2005 (78 percent of voters backed the charter and 21 percent opposed it) and then by a ratification vote in the National Assembly. A new National Assembly was elected on 15th December 2005 consisting of 275 members and since then the political parties have been negotiating with the purpose to form a new government. A new presidential council and a prime minister were appointed and agreed on April 2006 and a new government is expected to be in place soon. According to the new constitution Iraq is a Federal Republic, however, some political parties are trying to limit the federalizing rights so that only the three northern governorates (Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Dahuk - also called Kurdistan) can keep on practising a high degree of autonomy. The federal question will therefore be one of most important issues to be addressed by the new government in political as well as legal terms. In addition to the turbulent political situation, the security situation remains a crucial unresolved issue, effectively hampering the important economic development of the country.

2.3

Security Situation

The continued troubled security situation in Iraq constitutes the main single obstacle for the reconstruction process and the economic recovery of Iraq. Also for the ITCS project the security aspects has influenced the work e.g. by dictating the approach used in the data collection and survey activities and the coordination activities with the Iraqi authorities. A local consultancy company (Engineering Consultancy Bureau (ECB), Basrah University), has been appointed to carry out the data collection and survey activities inside Iraq. Unfortunately, assess to data has been limited (either not available or the source is reluctant to provide the requested data). For the survey activities it was early realised, that detailed surveys of main roads and waterways in the upper part of the corridor would not be possible due to the security hazard. Focus in the surveying activities has therefore been concentrated in the southern provinces (mainly the Basrah Governorate) where the security situation is less problematic.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

To validate the findings of the survey team and guide these in how to optimise the inspections; training sessions have been conducted with COWI experts in Kuwait - one session in November 2005 prior to the survey activities and one session January 2006 after Part 1 of the survey activities. Satellite imagery has been used extensively in the process, which has facilitated the dialogue and the validation process.

2.4

Funding of the Reconstruction

Warfare, neglect and sanctions imposed on Iraq have left the Iraqi economy and infrastructure in a poor state. The Iraqi GDP per capita is now one of the lowest in the Middle East, despite the fact that Iraq has some of the highest oil and gas reserves in the World. To get Iraq back on track, and avoid further destabilisation of a volatile region, urgent recovery of the Iraqi economy has become a target priority for the international community. For this purpose the International Reconstruction Fund Facility for Iraq (IRFFI) 1 was launched early 2004 by the United Nations and the World Bank to help donor nations channel their resources and coordinate their support for reconstruction and development of Iraq. So far 26 donors have pledged over 1.4 billion US$ to the Trust Fund Facility to ensure responsive financing for near-term (2004) and medium-term (2005-2007) priority investments in the country. Denmark became full member of the IRFFI in the summer 2005. The transport sector has been identified as one of the priority sectors and an Emergency Transport Infrastructure Reconstruction Project has been launched to help reconstruct and rehabilitate key transport infrastructure such as highways and roads, railways, ports and urban transport. As most infrastructure emergency repair works are now completed or in progress the tendency for the funding for the reconstruction effort is shifting from multilateral donor support to bilateral support based on soft loans. Moreover, as the economic recovery appears to have gained pace and income is generated from imports to the Iraqi Ports, there appears to be room for Iraqi selffinancing for some of the needed rehabilitation projects.

2.5

Socio-Economic Development

The major driving factor in the economic recovery process in Iraq is the income from the oil export. Figure 2.1 illustrates clearly the present dependency on this source.

1

www.irffi.org

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

30.000 Oil Export

Million USD

25.000

GDP

20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 1999

Figure 2.1

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Iraqi GDP and Oil Export (1998-2005) Source: World Bank/ CIA World Fact book

Due to the problematic security situation in Iraq, it has until now not been possible to increase the oil production substantially, and the export levels remain at a level of around 2 mill. barrels of crude oil per day. It is expected that Iraq with introduction of modern oil technology and re-opening of all potential export routes could reach export of some 6 mill. barrels/day. However, the substantial increase in oil prices over recent years and the opening of the Iraqi economy has resulted in promising growth rates in the GDP - see Table 2.1. It is foreseen that these high growth rates will continue in the coming years driven by increases in oil income and the development within the manufacturing and service sectors. Table 2.1

Key Economic Indicators (2003 - 2005) incl. forecasts 2003

2005

2006

2007

Real GDP growth (% change)

46.5

4.0

16.8

13.6

Consumer prices (% change)

27

30

12

12

Merchandise exports (USD million)

235

452

606

665

Oil Real GDP (% change)

74.2

-1,1

20

14.6

Exchange rate (ID:USD 1)

1,671

1,453

1,451

1,551

Source:

Central Bank of Iraq, Ministry of Finance

Figure 2.2 illustrates the three scenarios in the growth of the GDP assumed in the ITMP/ITCS study as basis for prediction of import demands.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

18,0%

PESSIMESTIC BASE CASE

16,0%

OPTIMISTIC

14,0%

12,0%

10,0%

8,0%

6,0%

4,0%

2,0%

0,0%

2006

Figure 2.2

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

GDP projections (Pessimistic, Base Case and Optimistic) Source: ITMP - revised estimates for years 2006-2008

The growth in GDP per capita will be more moderate due to the expected significant population growth from present 26 mill. to approximately 40 mill. in year 2026. The predicted increase in total import volumes is indicated in Table 2.2 based on the 3 scenarios for GDP growth. Table2.2

Predicted growth in total imports depending on growth in GDP

100.000.000

Scenario A & B: High Growth (Total Import) 90.000.000

Scenario A & B: Base Case (Total Import) 80.000.000

Scenario A & B: Low Growth (Total Import) Annual Import (ton)

70.000.000 60.000.000

50.000.000 40.000.000

30.000.000 20.000.000

10.000.000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

3

The Umm Qasr - Baghdad Transport Corridor

3.1

Study Area

The study area covers all ports (oil ports excluded), port approaches and main roads in the corridor between Umm Qasr (via Basrah) to Baghdad - see Figure 3.1.

Figure 3.1

3.2

ITCS study area.

Transport Forecasting

The main trade partners and origin of goods imported has been estimated as: Australia, South and East Africa Europe and Mediterranean America North and West Africa

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75 % 19 % 5% 1%

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

Figure 3.2 shows the main trade links to Iraq with the following main components: •

The direct link through the Iraqi ports in the southern part of the country near Basrah.

•

The three other main links are land transport namely via Turkey, Syria, Jordan 2 .

It is estimated that around 60,000 tons of goods are imported to Iraq every day (based on import data in 2004). Of those, 70 % arrive from overseas by ship either directly to Iraqi ports or through neighbouring countries. At present it is estimated that less than one third of what comes from overseas is landed in Iraqi ports. The rest is transported mainly by road from surrounding countries. The remaining 30 % of the total volumes are either a local produce of surrounding countries, or goods which for various reasons are routed through them over land. 3

Figure 3.2

Main trade routes into Iraq.

2

A further trade link goes via Kuwait. Due to recent security situation inside Iraq, the general transport rates have gone up between 15 to 25 percent for different destinations in Iraq of which the presence of military forces is a main factor. In order to secure the trucks and the cargo, the transport companies are using the Iraqi Security Companies that are available across the border for escorting Kuwaiti trucks in convoys inside Iraq. Usually, there is no transhipment at the border. Between 75 and 125 trucks are crossing the border every day carrying liquid and dry cargo, mostly for the military into Iraq.

3

Article from 2004 by P. Hermannsson, UNJLC " Enabling Iraqi ports to handle Iraqi trade"

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

3.3

Institutional Framework

Iraq's political system has been radically changed as a consequence of the removal of the Baath party, which exercised a monopoly on power since 1968. The political system under the Sadam Hussein regime was based on a single party system, a command economy, a nationalist-socialist ideology and a tight control of the media and the security forces. The power was narrowly exercised by a family clique with wider clan support. This control was exercised on all levels of the extensive public sector - also in the transport sector. However, no major administrative or legislative changes have yet been implemented in the Transport Sector despite the major political changes that have occurred in Iraq since spring 2003. As shown in Figure 3.3 the following ministries are involved in the overall transport infrastructure planning at the national level: •

Ministry of Construction and Housing.(MoCH)

•

Ministry of Finance (MoF)

•

Ministry of Planning (MoP)

•

Ministry of Transportation (MoT)

•

Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works (MoMPW)

For the Transport Corridor the two primary ministries are MoCH (Roads and Bridges) and MoT (Ports).

Figure 3.3

Iraqi ministries and authorities involved in transport infrastructure planning.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

3.3.1 Ministry of Construction and Housing The responsibilities of the MoCH are set out in Law no 62, 1987, which is still valid. The Ministry is responsible for proposing plans in the field of buildings, housing, roads and bridges. The responsibilities of the Ministry, in relation to roads and bridges, are carried out by the State Commission for Roads and Bridges (SCRB). SCRB undertakes the execution, maintenance of the public roads, including the expressways outside the limits of Baghdad Municipality and other municipalities. The SCRB is also responsible for operation of and equipment for bridges and for possessing land for road and bridge projects. The SCRB is a legal entity and is, according to the law, financially and administratively independent in order to achieve its goals. 3.3.2 Ministry of Transportation The responsibilities of the MoT are defined in the Law no. 7, on the Ministry of Transportation and Communication, 1994. This law is still valid, although the Ministry was divided into separate ministries for transportation and communication by the first cabinet under the CPA in 2003. The responsibilities of the MoT include: •

Management, operation and maintenance of railways, civil airports, ports, and waterway transportation

•

Conducting economic and technical feasibility studies for air, land, river and railway transport

General Companies for railways, civil aviation and ports are, among other state companies, established under the Ministry.

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4

Transportation Infrastructure

4.1

Ports

The ports and port approaches included in the transport corridor study are shown in Figure 4.1. The Port of Al Faw, which at present consists of a dhow harbour and an oil jetty, is not mentioned in the TOR, but is included here for completeness.

Note:

The Mega Port is not constructed at present but is considered by GCPI as a future port expansion.

Figure 4.1

Ports included in the ITCS are Umm Qasr, Az Zubayr, Abu Floos and Al Maqal.

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The layout, equipment and condition of the different ports and port approaches are described in detail in the Phase 2 report in Appendix C: Ports & Approaches. 4.1.1 Port of Umm Qasr This is the main Iraqi Port with 21 berths and a total berth length of more than 5 km. The port consists of an Old Port and a New Port as shown in Figure 4.2.

New Port

Old Port

Figure 4.2

Layout plan for Port of Umm Qasr.

The Umm Qasr Port has been subject to a number of rehabilitation projects since Spring 2003, with the aim of reviving and utilizing the potential of the Port as the main gateway for import to Iraq.

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The depth at the berths is at present around 11-12 m and in some places up to 13.5m, which is believed to have been the originally designed depth at the berths in the New Port. This will allow medium sized general cargo / container vessels to enter the Port. Seemingly, the Port is having potential to substantially increase the pre-war import rates of around 30.000 TEU and 2 million tonnes general cargo. 4.1.2 Port of Az Zubayr This is a fairly large industrial port located further up the Khor Az Zubayr. It has 12 berths with designed depth of 11 to 11.5m. The port appears to be in a good condition with potential for expansion. Until recently the Port has been operated by Mærsk.

Figure 4.3

General view of the quays at the Port Az Zubayr.

4.1.3 Port of Al Maqal Before the Iran-Iraq war back in the 1980'ies the Port of Maqal in Basrah was the main port in Iraq. During the war, the port was seriously damaged and lots of wrecks in the port and up the Shatt Al Arab, hinder basically any practical use of the port for large vessels. The port has 7 wharfs built in 1978 and a number of old berths in a poor state. All the adjoining facilities have either been destroyed or looted. A substantial effort shall be made to get this port up running again.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

Figure 4.4

General view of the harbour front at the Port of Al Maqal.

4.1.4 Port of Abu Floos The Port of Abu Floos is situated in Shatt Al Arab about 20 km South of Basrah. This small port is used as an import/export terminal for general cargo. The port has a 600 m long quay wall with a number of jib cranes. The Port services mainly medium size coasters - see Figure 4.5. 4.1.5 Other Port Plans There are plans for two major ports in the area - apparently competing as they are located just opposite each other. Both projects have been reviewed as part of the study as they - if realised - will have an impact on operation and expansion of other ports in the region. Iraq Mega Port GCPI has confirmed that plans have been developed for a Mega Port seaport on the east shore of Khor Abd Allah. No details have been available for the ITCS on this project. Boubyan Island Seaport On the east coast of Boubyan Island (Kuwait), Boubyan Island Seaport is in the initial stages of development. A large container and general cargo port is planned with a total container capacity of 2.5 million TEU per year.

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Study of Transport Corridor from Umm Qasr via Basrah to Baghdad, Iraq Phase 2: Planning; Summary Report

Figure 4.5

4.2

General view of the quays at the Port of Abu Floos.

Port Approaches

4.2.1 Shatt Al Arab Shatt Al Arab is formed by the confluence of Tigris and Euphrates at Al Qurnah. It has a total length of approximately 150 km, an average width of 500 m and an average depth of 7 m. The river flows in southeasterly direction towards the Arabian Gulf. Navigation on Shatt Al Arab is today severly hampered by extensive siltation, a large number of wrecks in the river and the de-facto unresolved border dispute with Iran. According to an agreement between Iran and Iraq from 1990 the border line is located in the deepest part of the navigation channel. This is not a stationary border as indicated in Figure 4.6, where it is showed that the border line determined in 1990 is now crossed several times by the present navigation channel.

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Figure 4.6

Lower part of Shatt Al Arab(at Al Faw) with the agreed border line from 1990 shown (red line) as well as the present navigation channel (yellow line).

4.2.2 Khor Abd Allah Khor Abd Allah constitutes the outer approach to the two main commercial ports of Umm Qasr and Az Zubayr. In 2005 UNDP dredged approximately 8 mill m3 down to -11.0 m, -12.3 m and 12.5 m CD within different section of Khor Abd Allah. Width of the dredged channel is generally 200m with exception of a small area around the Mine Danger Area as indicated on the Admiralty Chart. The minimum width in that particular section is 125 m Navigation in the channel is problematic due to displaced or missing buoys, mine danger areas, wrecks and the risk of piracy. 4.2.3 Khor Az Zubayr Between the ports of Umm Qasr and Az Zubair runs the channel of Khor Az Zubayr. The channel has varying water depth ranging from -8 m to - 22 m CD with an average depth of around -12 m CD. Navigation in the channel is problematic due to displaced or missing buoys and wrecks.

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4.3

Inland Waterways

Despite long-standing government interest in developing the Tigris and Euphrates rivers into major arteries for inland transport, little had been accomplished by the late 1980s, primarily because of the massive scale of such a project. In 1984 between 5 to 7% of all cargo in Iraq was carried along the inland waterways. Goods, including steel, cement, grains and other non-perishables, were transported using a barge and pusher. "Kalaks" or local sailing vessels also played a role. Today there are several hindrances to the free movement of freight along the main inland waterways of Euphrates, Tigris, Shatt Al Arab and Shatt Al Basrah. These include damaged infrastructure, pontoon bridges, heavy siltation, decreased water levels, insufficient signage and lack of security. In meetings with representatives from the Iraq Ministry of Transportation it has been clarified that the waterways of Euphrates and Tigris are not a priority issue in the overall transport planning for Iraq. This is in line with the estimates made in the ITMP that only around 20.000 tonnes goods per year will be transported on these rivers subject that full navigation is possible on these. Accordingly, transport on these rivers has not received further attention in this study. However, river transport remains a long term possibility for serving local transport needs in the corridor.

4.4

Roads

The layout and condition of the different roads in the Corridor are described in detail in the Phase 2 report in Appendix D: Roads. There are two major routes between Umm Qasr and Baghdad. These are: A.

Umm Qasr Port - Highway No.26 - Expressway No.1 - Highway No.8 - Baghdad City Centre

B.

Umm Qasr Port - Highway No.26 - Highway No.40 - Highway No.6 Baghdad City Centre

The road segments in the two main routes include: •

Expressway No. 1 (app. 570 km): Connects Umm Qasr port/Basrah and Baghdad via Thi Qar, Muthanna, Qadissiya and Babylon Governorates.

•

Highway No. 6 (app. 540 km): Connects Basrah and Baghdad via Amarah and Kut in Missan and Wassit Governorates, respectively.

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•

Highway No. 8 (app. 600 km): Connects Basrah (Az Zubayer town) to the Abdaly/Safwan border crossing to Kuwait. Plus the segment from Al Bathah town in Thi Qar Governorate to Baghdad.

•

Highway No. 26 (app. 45 km): Connects Basrah (Az Zubayer town) to the Umm Qasr port.

•

Highway No. 40 (app. 10 km): Connects Basrah and Az Zubayer town.

The roads are shown in Figure 4.7 below.

Figure 4.8

4.4.1

The two main land routes between Umm Qasr and Baghdad (Expressway No. 1 and Highway No. 6).

Route A: Via Expressway No. 1

Design: Length: Approximately 500 km

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Width: 4 or 6-lanes with emergency lanes and median Horizontal alignment radius: min. 5000 m Longitudinal grade: max. 2 % Pavement built to maximum axle loads of 16.3 tonnes and 13.2 tonnes as permissible prevailing loads. Design Speed: 130-150 km/h. Supporting structures/facilities: Bridges, parking areas, filling stations, overpasses, interchanges, access roads, junctions Shortcomings: A 150 km segment of Expressway No. 1 from Nassriyah to Diwaniya is missing but currently under construction. When completed general capacity of the roads in the corridor will be increased significantly. The Expressway accommodates approximately 20 percent of the total traffic volume in Iraq, and is assuming an increasingly vital role in the movement of goods. Expressway No. 1 is poorly linked to the urban network in Baghdad. A high capacity link from the Expressway to Baghdad City Centre has been designed and the interchange almost completed. The outstanding work is construction of 15 km expressway through a densely populated area from Yusufyah to Daura. Another project which is considered important is a 13 km expressway link between Hilla south of Baghdad and Expressway No.1. All road furniture is missing. 4.4.2

Route B: Via Highway No. 6

Design: Approximately 650 km long 4 to 2-lanes with and without median Horizontal alignment radius: N/A Longitudinal grade: N/A Pavement design: Section wise the pavement is built to maximum axle loads of 16.3 tonnes and 13.2 tonnes as permissible prevailing loads.

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Shortcomings: The Highway passes through many city centers which constitutes bottle necks in the general flow of traffic. Pavement condition is generally poor. All road furniture is missing.

4.5

Bridges

The layout and condition of the different bridges in the Corridor are described in detail in the Phase 2 report in Appendix E: Bridges. Well over 100 bridges exist in the Corridor that constitutes various overpasses and river crossings (especially on Highway No. 6). In addition there are a considerable number of culverts. The condition of the bridges various considerably, some having only minor damages while others are completely destroyed from war action. In general all bridges lack maintenance and there is a risk that the decay will accelerate if proper maintenance is not employed soon. As for the roads the bridge furniture such as railings, crash barriers and signs have been stripped off on the majority of the bridges. This is an obvious safety risk to the road users.

Figure 4.9

Example of war damage to bridge that requires urgent repair.

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5

Main Findings of ITCS Phases 1 & 2

5.1

Transport Sector in General

The extensive emergency rehabilitation projects within the transport sector (mainly for the ports and roads sector), initiated shortly after the invasion of Iraq in the Spring of 2003, are now completed or well under way. For the southern transport corridor from Umm Qasr to Baghdad the status as of today is that the transport sector is now in a workable condition. However, still a lot remain to be done to lift the infrastructure to a normal standard in the region. Planning and prioritising future investments has therefore become a central issue. The present organisation and legal framework for the transport sector is basically similar to the one which applied during the Baath regime, as no substantial administrative and legislative reforms have been implemented during the political transition period from Spring 2003 until now. It is expected that with the new Constitution approved and the new Iraqi Government in place, the much needed reforms, that shall transform Iraq from a state controlled economy to a more market oriented economy, will gain pace. The new Constitution will most likely result in more federal autonomy with decentralisation of the administration. Institutional changes will also be needed within the transport sector to reflect the general decentralisation trend, and it is important that the authorities are strengthened to meet the new requirements in terms of administrative, executive and managerial capabilities.

5.2

Ports & Approaches

A main task within the ITCS has been survey, study and assessments of the Iraqi Ports and Port Approaches. The study activities are described in detail in the: Phase 2: Planning, Ports & Approaches Report. The detailed investigations regarding the important dredging aspect are reported in the Phase 2 Report: Environmental Investigations.

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The task has involved detailed data collection and surveys for the ports of: − − − −

Umm Qasr (New and Old Port) Az Zubayr Port Abu Floos Al Maqal

and the port approaches of: − − −

Shatt Al Arab Khor Abd Allah Khor Az Zubayr

Moreover, several meetings and interviews have been held with various stakeholders (UNDP experts), MoT and GCPI representatives. The purpose of the above activities has been to clarify the present condition of the port infrastructure, equipment and facilities and related operational aspects for the ports. Based hereon projections have been made on capacity restrictions and proposals are put forward on how best to promote the port development. 5.2.1

Main Conclusions

The main conclusions from the study of the ports and approaches are highlighted in the following: −

There appear to be a potential for diverting a significant part of the total import volume to the Iraqi ports from the present import through ports of neighbouring countries, if constraints in the Iraqi ports in terms of security and efficiency are removed. Capturing this traffic would be beneficial both in terms of supporting the Iraqi economy and reducing dependence on other countries.

−

Generally the port infrastructure is in a workable condition. Some refurbishment will be required in the short term as part of the general port management scheme and general maintenance shall take place in order not to further deteriorate the condition of vital port infrastructure. Prioritised actions shall be taken in this respect based on a general strategic port master plan covering all the commercial Iraqi ports and specific master plans for the individual ports.

−

Port equipment is to a large extent in a poor state and outdated. Replacement seems the best option in many cases. Some port equipment primarily in the two main commercial ports of Umm Qasr and Az Zubayr, seems to be both workable and of relatively new origin. A specific issue of concern are the dredgers, which seems to have inadequate capacity seen in relation to the demand for maintenance dredging. This issue is discussed in more detail in the: Phase 2: Plan-

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ning; Environmental Investigations report. However, lack of port equipment does not seem to be the main reason for the inefficient port operation observed at present. −

The state of the port facilities varies considerably from port to port. Warehousing/storage capacity seems to be adequate in the main commercial ports of Umm Qasr and Az Zubayr, although some rearrangement/housekeeping will be needed for these facilities to meet present and future demand. It appears that there is a lack of social facilities (canteen, toilet facilities etc,) for the large number of port staff.

−

It appears that current berth facilities, equipment and handling methods - provided improved daily management (housekeeping) - are sufficient to meet the demands in the short-to-medium term.

−

Port security is a focal issue if Iraq shall attract more imports to its own ports. According to our information USAID is at present assisting GCPI in qualifying for an ISPS certification for the port of Umm Qasr (not confirmed). This will require that more surveillance and patrolling of port approaches are implemented and that security fencing and procedures are tightened in the port area.

−

There appears to be an urgent need to decentralise the port organisation and to raise skill and capabilities of the managerial staff in the ports. This should be done through target training and payment of salaries that reflect and honour the professional capability of the ports managerial staff. This will promote that more autonomy can be granted to the individual ports, which in turn most likely will raise the efficiency in the port operation. In this context the present organisation of GCPI should be streamlined in order better to support the individual ports.

−

Dredging requirements in the ports and port approaches are substantial (see Figure 5.1) and will be a major cost burden in the operation of the ports. Mitigation measures have been proposed in the ITCS to reduce the dredging requirements. These need to be elaborated further, but the dredging aspect appears to be crucial factor in the strategic development of the ports and the applied dredging strategy.

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1)

Costs assuming 4 USD/m3

Volumes Capital (mill.m3)

Costs

Maintenance (mill.m3/y)

Capital (mill.USD)

Maintenance (mill.USD/y)

Base Scenario 2) Shatt Al Arab

10,0

3,5

40,0

14,0

Khor Az Zubayr

13,8

7,6

55,2

30,4

Present Situation Scenario 3) Shatt Al Arab

0

0

0

0

Khor Az Zubayr

0

4,8

0

19,2

Target Scenario 4) Shatt Al Arab

7,6

2,8

30,3

11,2

Khor Az Zubayr

8,7

5,3

34,8

21,2

Notes: 1) Actual dredging strategy will influence the cost for dredging. 2) Base Scenario is the original dredging depths. 3) Present Scenario reflects the present dredging depths. 4) Target Scenario is the dredging depth proposed by the Consultant.

Figure 5.1

5.2.2

Summary of dredging requirement for ports and port approaches for different dredging scenarios.

Recommendations

It is recommended that the following activities are initiated immediately to boost the port development in Iraq: −

That a general strategic Port Master Plan is prepared for the Iraqi Ports along with a more specific Port Master Plan for the main commercial port of Umm Qasr. The purpose of this activity is to identify the investment needs within the short, medium and long term and prioritise these in a rational manner. Moreover, to secure that such initiatives supports the long term port development objectives.

−

Target training and capacity building initiatives are taken for the port managerial/key staff. It is believed that this activity will have an immediate effect in raising the efficiency in the port operations. Detail training plans to be prepared in cooperation with GCPI.

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5.3

Roads

Another important task within the ITCS has been survey, study and assessments of the Highways and Expressways in the Corridor. The study activities are described in detail in the: Phase 2: Planning, Roads Report. The task has involved O/D surveys, traffic counting, bottlenecks and constraints identification and condition survey for the following roads in the Corridor: − − − − −

Expressway No. 1 Highway No. 6 Highway No. 8 (Basrah Governorate) Highway No. 26 (Basrah Governorate) Highway No. 40 (Basrah Governorate)

Moreover, initial coordination with MoCH and SCRB representatives has taken place. The purpose of the above activities has been to clarify the constraints and condition of the main roads in the corridor. Based hereon projections have been made on when general capacity limits must be expected to occur and what requirements there are for road rehabilitation and maintenance. 5.3.1 Main Conclusions The main conclusions from the study of the Expressway and Highways in the Corridor are highlighted in the following: Based on the fact finding and surveys in Phase 2 as well as in previous studies the following general evaluation can be made for the road network in the transport corridor: •

Capacity of the Road Network: The capacity of the road network in the transport corridor is presumably sufficient at present. However, over the next 20 years constraints/bottlenecks can be expected to develop locally. The extend of roads becoming exhausted in terms of capacity and at what point in time depends heavily on the speed of the economic recovery as well as the investment and the modal split between rail and road transport over time. At present the volume of goods and passengers transported by rail is insignificant according to the ITMP-study. However, the growth in traffic is correlated to the growth in GDP, which has been estimated in the previous ITMP-study conducted by CIITI. As this study is from 2003 it might need updating. Furthermore, the transfer of traffic from the highways to Expressway No. 1 is also dependent on when construction of the missing part is completed.

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•

Constraints: There are a number of constraints to the free flow of traffic in the road network due to e.g. check points, diversions, junctions/intersections with insufficient capacity, etc.. Some of these must be assumed to be of a temporary character (e.g. check points and diversions), but at present they pose a constraint to the free flow of traffic as well as a traffic safety issue.

•

Pavement Condition: From the received data it is obvious that some section require immediate attention if the construction costs are not to rise dramatically. Other sections require reconstruction, but the cost of rehabilitation is less influenced by the timing. Finally, some sections require rehabilitation at some point in time overall the entire road network in the transport corridor is going to require some kind of sealing or strengthening in the coming years. However, quantification and a more specific timing of the various types of rehabilitation works can not be established at present. This will require the RSP data from Activity D.5, which has not yet been received.

Furthermore, it became evident from the data collection that existing data about the physical parameters on roads and traffic held by the various Iraqi road authorities have been lost - either as a consequence of war or as a result of looting. Thus any data gathering by the Iraqi authorities will most likely be starting from scratch and such a situation ought to dictate a thorough set of guidelines/rules for storing data from the very beginning. At present the findings can be used to list a number of issues, which it could be beneficial to address: •

By-pass roads around city centres (bottlenecks on e.g. Highway No. 6) Existing bottlenecks are a severe restriction on the free flow of traffic and form a traffic safety issue - detailed registration and surveying required for determining priority and sequence of addressing bottlenecks.

•

Intersections to be upgraded Intersections need upgrading due to exhausted capacity and as a traffic safety measure - detailed registration and surveying required for determining priority and sequence of addressing intersections in need of upgrading.

•

Temporary constraints to be removed (e.g. check points and diversions) The current situation might necessitate check points, but as the stability of the country is regained these could be removed and thus improve both the free flow of traffic and traffic safety. Likewise, focus could be placed on diversions in order to remove the cause of the diversion and reinstate normal traffic flow. Detailed registration and surveying required for determining priority and sequence of addressing temporary constraints and the need for proper signage and lighting while their are still in place.

•

Critical "black spots" identified "Black spots" identified in Basrah area (e.g. Saad Square, Basrah University

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intersection and exit from paper mill) and pose a severe traffic safety issue detailed registration and surveying required for determining priority and sequence of addressing "black spots". •

Road furniture is needed (traffic signs, signal lights, guardrails, etc.) A large portion of road furniture is either missing or in-operational - detailed registration and surveying required for determining priority and sequence of addressing the need for road furniture, which should be based on established sets of Iraqi standards.

•

Policing At present no effective enforcement of traffic rules - training of qualified police officers needed as well as information campaigns targeted at drivers.

•

Road management system A reliable Road Management System is a requirement for an effectively and economically operated infrastructure - procurement of appropriate system and training of qualified staff needed.

•

Capacity building for State Commission for Roads and Bridges (SCRB) staff (training and provision of laboratory and survey equipment as well as other hardware) Appropriate equipment and the knowledge to use it correctly and in a timely fashion is required in order to maintain a reliable database of the condition of the infrastructure - procurement of appropriate system and training of qualified staff needed.

5.3.2 Recommendations It is recommended: −

That the important deferred Road Surface profiling activity (Activity D.5 - Bump Integrator Survey) is carried out as soon as the official commitment to participate in this activity is received from MoCH/SCRB. The result of this survey will enable COWI to make an estimate of the required rehabilitation for pavements of the main roads in the Corridor.

−

To expand the findings in Phase 2 with a Phase 3: Implementation, where focus is assigned to strengthening the capacity of the SCRB through implementation of a Road Management System (RMS) and knowledge transfer through a Pilot Project, where all phases of a road (and bridge) project should be covered from planning to execution. The capacity building should cover training of SCRB staff, procurement of survey and laboratory equipment and Technical Assistance in the implementation of the RMS (data collection) and Pilot Project.

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5.4

Bridges

In connection with the roads survey bridges in the corridor have been surveyed. The study activities are described in detail in the: Phase 2: Planning, Bridges Report. 5.4.1 Main Conclusions The main findings of the survey are: •

Highway No.6: Most of the bridges registered are in urgent need for either widening and/or reconstruction.

•

Highway No.8 (Basrah Governorate): One Culvert has been reordered. It is in a fairly condition, however, there is need for some repairs, maintenance and furnishing.

•

Highway No.40: One bridge has been reordered. The bridge is narrow and generally in a bad condition and need for widening and/or reconstruction.

•

Highway No.26: No bridges registered.

•

Expressway No.1 (Basrah Governorate): There has not been any bridge registered, however, a lot of culverts have been recorded and most of those are in a fairly condition with need of some repairs, maintenance and furnishing.

5.4.2 Recommendations The following are recommended: −

Upgrading of the critical bridges identified on Highway No.6 (Al Qurnah, Al Shafi and Al Chabbab).

−

Upgrading of the safety for road users by reestablishment of crash barriers, railing etc for all bridges/Culverts.

−

Repairing/replacing bridge elements with major damages.

−

Establishment of Bridge Management & Maintenance System.

−

Establishment of Bridge Design Manuals.

−

Coordination with ERRP.

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6

Capacity Building

Iraqis are generally well educated with skilled professionals in most engineering fields, but the isolation under which they have lived for several decades, has accentuated the need for training into modern engineering techniques and instrumentation. The ITCS involves of number of fields of specialisation such as marine engineering, port planners, hydraulic engineers, environmentalists, surveyors, pavement experts etc. COWI do cover the majority of these specialities in-house and where this is not the case COWI has teamed up companies or individuals that do cover all the needed professional expertise. The present security situation in Iraq does not allow the team professionals to enter Iraq, and it has therefore been necessary to team up with a local consultant, who can carry out the important fact finding and surveying inside Iraq. To this purpose COWI teamed up with the Engineering Consultancy Bureau (ECB) at Basrah University. ECB has traditionally carried out a number of consultancy services in Iraq within the engineering field. Moreover, COWI teamed up with a local institutional expert (Mr. Ammar Mohammad Elattiya) with insight into the administration of the Transport Sector. In order to secure that these local professionals can carry out all the specialised work needed, training and knowledge transfer has been an important part of the ITCS Phase 2.

6.1

Training

Two training sessions have been held with the ECB team covering the survey activities for ports, port approaches and roads. 6.1.1 Training Part 1: Training Part 1 was carried out in November 2005 (16th Nov – 28th Nov) in Kuwait, where COWI has a Branch Office. The focus of this training was on general surveying techniques using GPS and PADs and more specifically in visual surveying techniques for ports, port approaches, roads and bridges. Detailed survey forms were handed out to be used by the survey teams inside Iraq.

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Detailed planning of the survey work inside Iraq was discussed between the COWI experts and the ECB teams. Subsequently, ECB left for Iraq to conduct Survey Part 1.

Figure 6.1

Training Part 1 - COWI and ECB port team members in the COWI office in Kuwait.

6.1.2 Training Part 2: Training Part 2 was carried out in January/February 2006 (28th Jan – 8th Feb) in Kuwait. The focus of this training was for the roads team the training in the use of a laser based Road Surface Profiler (RSP). The intention was to have SCRB staff trained in this at the same time, but as official commitment from MoCH was not received at this stage, this was not possible. The ECB roads team also received training in detailed visual inspections of pavements in order to supplement the RSP registration. For the ports team focus shifted from port infrastructure to port equipment, facilities and port operation. Experience and review of data from Survey Part 1 was elaborated between the COWI experts and the ECB team and required adjustments for survey Part 2 were agreed. The main adjustment made concerned the area to be surveyed by the Roads Team. Due to the worsened security situation in Iraq it was agreed to focus the detailed roads survey in the Basrah Governorate, where the situation is relatively calm.

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At completion of Training Part 2 ECB left for Iraq to conduct Survey Part 2. The Iraqi Institutional Expert also met his COWI counterpart during the Training Part 2 and agreed the scope and time plan for collecting relevant data on the institutional set-up in the Iraqi Transport Sector. 6.1.3 Training of Authority Staff The results of the work done by COWI shall eventually become the shared property of Danida and the Iraqi Government. However, the process of arriving at the study conclusions should ideally involve staff from the relevant authorities due to the obvious benefits of knowledge transfer. Moreover, it is the intention that the survey equipment used in the Study will be donated to the relevant authorities at the conclusion of the ITCS as part of the capacity building in the said institutions. Due to the turbulent political situation in Iraq at present it has not been possible to obtain official commitment to the project and thus the training of authority staff, specific joint survey activities and subsequent handing over the survey equipment has been deferred until the new Iraqi Government is in place.

6.2

Procurement

A substantial element of the ITCS is the procurement of various surveying equipment to be used in the training and surveying and eventually to be handed over to relevant Iraqi authorities as part of the capacity building in these organisations. 6.2.1 Hydrographic surveying For the hydrographic surveying of ports & port approaches the following vessel and equipment has been procured: Survey vessel: The survey vessel procured is a multi purpose surveying/patrol boat of the type: Targa 31 MK II produced by Botnia Marin, Finland. This type of boat has previously been supplied to a number of police authorities in European countries, and the Harbour Authority in Saudi Arabia and has also been in use as survey vessel in such remote and rough areas as Greenland.

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Figure 6.2

Survey vessel Targa 31 MK II.

Layout details, 3600 views, video of the boat in action can be found on the internet address: www.targa.fi. The boat is powered by a D 6-310 (HP)/DPH Volvo Penta diesel engine offering a cruising speed of 26 knots. Propulsion is by Z-drive with Duoprop. Bow thruster is provided. The fuel tank accommodates 900 kg of diesel fuel sufficient to reach from Umm Qasr to Basrah on one full tank. The boat will be fitted with state-of-the-art navigation system and instrumentation and also an extra diesel generator to power the air condition system. Routine spare parts for approximately 5 years of operation will be provided with the boat. The boat is now in the custody of the boat supplier: Reese Marine in Aabenraa, Denmark, ready for training of staff from the GCPI surveying department. Survey equipment: The survey vessel will be fitted with the following survey equipment enabling the vessel to carry out most marine survey tasks "stand alone". •

Thales Z-Max RTK GPS system incl. accessories,

•

Thales DG 16 GPS receiver w. IALA Beacon receiver and WAAS receiver for differential signals,

•

EIVA Single Beam Suite software system (HYPACK compatible),

•

Computer hardware incl. 3 flat monitors,

•

Flux Gate Compass KVH Gyro Track,

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•

TSS HS 50 Heave Compensator,

•

Reson Navisound 515 dual freq. (33/210 KHz) Echosounder,

•

Reson TC122 combined 33/210 KHz Transducer,

•

Valeport model 70006 Self Recording Tide Recorder,

•

FSI NXIC CTD for Sound Velocity with Windows software,

•

Benthos Chirp/CW dual Ch. dual freq full digital Side Scan Sonar,

•

Geometrics G882 Magnetometer.

Figure 6.3

Hydrograhic survey equipment procured for the ITCS.

The survey equipment is now fitted in the survey vessel and ready for the training of the staff from the GCPI survey department.

6.3

Data Exchange

A considerable amount of data has been collected as part of the ITCS and still more data is expected to come in when the deferred survey work in cooperation with the relevant authorities have been carried out. The Iraqi authorities have expressed interest in obtaining access to the data and it is an important task to secure the data transfer from the ITCS to the project stakeholders. Details of this transfer still needs to be agreed between Danida and the Iraqi Recipient, however, it is proposed that the data is stored digitally on the COWI Project Portal until this has been agreed finally. The Project Portal will be split in two parts one covering the Road Part of the project and the other covering the Port part of the project.

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Eventually, web based solutions could be applied as proposed in the report Phase 2: Planning; GIS and Training.

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7

Way Forward

Within the last 3 years considerable donor funding has been allocated for emergency rehabilitation projects in the Iraqi transport infrastructure and these projects have resulted that most of the infrastructure is now workable. However, there are still considerable needs in order to bring the transport infrastructure into efficient operation. With the new Iraqi Constitution in place and the imminent appointment of a new Iraqi Government, there is a prospect that the volatile political environment that has ruled during the transition period from the ousting of the Baath Party until today, can be replaced with more calm so that concrete steps can be taken in the much needed reform process of Iraq. To secure that future transport investments are taken on a rationale basis, and that these will prove sustainable, there is now an urgent need for: −

Long term planning,

−

Institutional reforms within the concerned authorities and executing organisations

−

Capacity building within the said authorities and executing organisations e.g. with training for administrative and management staff within the transport sector.

The ITCS has identified a number of actions and projects which are believed to boost the development within the Iraqi transport sector. These have been listed in the task specific report in the Appendices and summarised above for the relevant transport sectors. How we foresee that these projects can be implemented is briefly described in the following.

7.1

Finalising Phase 2

During Phase 2 of the ITCS it has not been possible to conclude all the activities as originally anticipated. Most of these activities have required the active participation of ministries and authorities, notably the MoT and MoCH and the GCPI and SCRB. Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) have been prepared

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between Danida and the concerned ministries, but due to the political deadlock following the elections in January 2006 and the delay in forming the new Iraqi Government, it has not been possible to have these MoU’s signed and thus the needed commitment from the concerned authorities. It appears that there is now some movement in the political process and that the formation of the new Iraqi Government is imminent. This will hopefully entail that the MOU’s can be signed soon and that the important outstanding activities from Phase 2 can be finalised. The outstanding Phase 2 activities are: 1. Training of GCPI staff in hydrographic surveying and handing over of survey vessel and hydrograhic equipment. Training is planned to take place in Denmark. Survey vessel and survey equipment is presently in the custody of the boat supplier: Reese Marine in Aabenraa, DK. 2. Training of SCRB staff in pavement inspections using the laser based Road Surface Profiler and supplementary visual inspections. Training is planned to take place in Kuwait, where the survey equipment is stored in the COWI Kuwait Office. 3. Training of SCRB staff in GIS. Training is planned to take place in DK. 4. Surveying of Ports and Port Approaches by GCPI using the donated equipment. 5. Surveying of Highways and Expressway No. 1 in the corridor by SCRB using the Laser Based Road Surface Profiler, combined with visual inspections. 6. Analysing hydrographic survey data in cooperation with GCPI. Follow-up on the training. 7. Analysing road survey data in cooperation with SCRB. Get the data into a GIS database and make financial analysis of the data according to the HDM4 model. Follow-up on the training. 8. Conduct a workshop with the Iraqi recipient where the results of the ITCS Phase 2 can be presented and where a general introduction to infrastructure management can be made. A detailed programme for the above activities can be prepared when the official commitments are received from the concerned Ministries and Authorities.

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7.2

Phase 3 - Implementation

The ITCS activities have revealed the need for follow-up on the activities carried out in Phase 2. These activities have been specified in the specific Phase 2 Reports covering the respective transport sectors (Project Catalogues). It is recommended that the ITCS Phase 2: Planning is supplemented with a Phase 3: Implementation. The activities included in Phase 3 are briefly outlined below. Reference is made to the detail project catalogues appended to the Phase 2 reports: Ports & Approaches (Appendix C) and Roads (Appendix D). 7.2.1

Port Sector

Strategic Port Master Plan: A comprehensive Strategic Port Master Plan should be carried out for all the Iraqi Ports. The purpose of the strategic planning is to set out objectives for the port development in the medium to long term, covering all the Iraqi Ports. Priorities should be listed and conceptual investment plans outlined. Institutional relationship between GCPI and the individual port should be addressed along with the commercialisation issue for the ports. Potential new port developments should also be addressed. Tentative timeframe: 6-9 months Tentative budget:

Approx. 0.6 Mill. US$

Umm Qasr Port Master Plan: This strategic plan should be accompanied with a more specific Master Plan for the main commercial port of Umm Qasr. This plan will cover the specific development objectives for the Umm Qasr Port (New and Old Ports) and address the specific development and investment plans for the medium and long term for this port. Tentative timeframe: 6-9 months Tentative budget:

Approx. 0.6 Mill. US$

Capacity Building: The above planning aspects should be carried out in a close cooperation with MoT, MoP, GCPI and other Iraqi stakeholders. It is envisaged that capacity building will be needed in the planning departments of the relevant ministries and authorities e.g. through training and supply of planning tools. Tentative timeframe: As above Tentative budget:

To be defined

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7.2.2

Roads Sector

Road Management System: For the strategic planning of future road investments in Iraq, SCRB need to establish a systematic database and analysing tool for the road network. It is recommended that a GIS based Road Management System (RMS) is established, where collected survey data (e.g. from Road Surface Profiling) can be stored and analysed. The RMS shall include a Pavement Management System (PMS). The implementation will cover relevant soft- and hardware and training of SCRB staff. Tentative timeframe: 3 months Tentative budget:

1.0 Mill. US$

Bridge Management System: As bridges are an integrated part of the road network, and in Iraq a substantial part of the same due to the numerous river crossings, it is recommended to supplement the Road Management System with a Bridge Management System. The system has the same general purpose as the RMS namely to provide a systematic database and analysing tool, however, solely covering the Iraqi bridges. Due to potential synergy effects with the RMS it is recommended that the BMS is implemented in parallel to the RMS. The implementation will cover relevant softand hardware and training of SCRB staff. Tentative timeframe: As above Tentative budget:

0.3 Mill. US$

Pilot Project: It is recommended to identify a Pilot Project in one of the southern provinces of Iraq, where all phases of a road project will be covered, from the early planning stage to construction. The project could involve a critical intersection or a section of one of the main roads in the corridor – ideally involving a bridge as well. Planning, surveying, conceptual design, detailed design, preparation of tender documents and supervision of execution shall be covered in a close cooperation with SCRB staff. Training and capacity building of local SCRB office is envisaged e.g. through provision of land survey and laboratory equipment. Tentative timeframe: 12 months (planning phase only) Tentative budget:

1-2 Mill. US$ (depending on the amount of equipment to be purchased)

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Appendix A: Phase 2: Planning; Transport Economics

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Appendix B: Phase 2: Planning; Institutional Component

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Appendix C: Phase 2: Planning; Ports & Approaches

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Appendix D: Phase 2: Planning; Roads

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Appendix E: Phase 2: Planning; Bridges

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Appendix F: Phase 2: Planning; Environmental Investigations

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Appendix G: Phase 2: Planning; GIS & Training

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