Political And Economic Risks To The European

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


POLITICAL
AND
ECONOMIC
RISKS
TO
THE
EUROPEAN
 

UNION:

THE
DARK
SIDE
OF
UNITY









 
BRIEF
HISTORY
OF
EUROPE
AFTER
WORLD
WAR
II
 


-Countries of the EU In theory, the European Union (EU) provides an ideal framework to eliminate political differences and promote economic growth through free trade.

Creating a communal

system where the welfare of all its citizens is paramount to the ambitions and wants of the few. place

its

individual

needs

community as a whole. continue

to

take

steps

ahead

of

No country shall

the

welfare

of

the

So long as the leaders of Europe to

ensure

the

stability

of

the

region, its members should be able to enjoy the potential for regional prosperity the EU promises to deliver. History,

however,

tells

us

stability

in

Europe

been a difficult task to achieve and maintain.

has

With so

many different histories, values, cultures, and national

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


identities, it is no surprise that the continent has faced so many conflicts over the years and was responsible for two world wars in the last century alone.

Europe’s ability

to defend itself against the divisive occurrences of the future, which are certain to come from current threats or places right now unimagined, are key to its future success and stability. -Shared history and conflicts Many countries within the EU have had many conflicts in the past which have led to many confrontations over the years.

This puts increased pressure on the EU leadership

to

fairly

act

with

appearance

of

achievable

goal

difficult

to

all

favoritism

or

during

stable

during

uncertainty.

respect

times

of

members

national times,

economic

without

the

interests;

an

however, and

very

political

Member nations should also keep this in mind

while voting on topics which affect other member countries. Behaviors which could be viewed as aggressive in nature or unfair could lead to tensions between nations which could prove devastating for the Union as a whole.

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


RISKS
OF
INCLUDING
FORMER
SOVIET
CONTROLLED
 COUNTRIES
 


-Russia’s renewed power and influence in Europe With

newly

acquired

wealth

via

natural

resources,

Russia has been attempting to exercise its influence on the former Soviet era states (many of which are now members of the EU) and on Europe as a whole.

Europe’s ever increasing

dependency on foreign energy supplies, namely natural gas from

Russia,

adds

serious

security

individual members of the EU. Russia

stands

poised

to

concerns

for

the

An aggressive and powerful

manipulate

the

stability

minded

politicians of the EU by using the energy dependency of European

countries

agenda.

The threat posed by such a dependency is enormous

to

stability

the

as

of

leverage

the

to

EU.

pursue

their

Russia

has

national

already

demonstrated that they are more than willing to use their control of vital resources to pressure and demand behavior on the part of sovereign nations. gas,

being

Russia

has

virtually the

the

ability

only to

infrastructure of all of Europe.

By withholding natural

supplier

in

effectively

the

region,

disrupt

the

Understandably, this type

of behavior isn’t in the economic best interests of Russia.

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


The money they earn from their natural resources is the cornerstone of that countries turnaround.

However, for the

short-term bullying and manipulative actions they’ve shown they are willing to take; it is a very effective tool to bargain with.

Their power to control the gas lines into

Europe gives them the power to dictate terms and influence political actions in the region. -US involvement United political

States arenas

necessarily

the

involvement could

also

stability

development and progress.

of

in

global

economic

and

potentially

affect,

not

the

EU,

but

economic

An example of such involvement

took place between the United Kingdom and Iran.

The UK has

been a staunch supporter of the US in the Iraq war. has

placed

the

UK

at

politically

opposite

spectrum from many of its EU counterparts.

ends

of

This the

However, these

differences hadn’t played a significant role in the past and may not in the future.

The potential for conflict is

there and is illustrated by the capture of UK sailors and marines recently in the Gulf of Hormuz. protest

of

the

Iranian

actions,

Britain, in its

sought

to

implement

economic sanctions in an effort to encourage the release of its military personnel.

Other members of the EU were under

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


no obligation to isolate Iran economically, and in fact many continued to engage in commerce to the chagrin the UK during the crisis. serious

conflict

Had this episode developed into a more between

the

UK

and

Iran,

the

British

parliament certainly would have sought support from the EU. Those

countries

would

have

interests

with

(or

with

significant

could

have)

respects

to

had

their

economic

ties

serious votes

to

Iran

conflicts

on

any

type

of of

economic sanction. US policy, in recent years, has certainly been at odds with the policies of Europe.

US and European relations as

a whole are at their lowest point possibly since the end of the Second

World

War.

Countries

willing

to

support

US

policy on myriad issues not just the war on terror may be significantly out of touch with the views of many countries within the EU.

The “go it alone” attitude of Tony Blair

and George Bush don’t reflect the true spirit of the Union. The sovereign right of countries to make decisions they feel are in the best interest of their respective country is vital to national identity and security.

How the EU

deals with global conflicts in the future will determine the

relevance

of

Europe

soundness of their union.

in

the

world

as

well

as

the

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


EU
STRUCTURE
AND
POWER
DISTRIBUTION
 


-New Europe versus Old Europe The

EU

was

initially

established

as

the

European

Economic Community with European countries (France, West Germany, Belgium, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands) with similar infrastructure and economic development.

With

the signing of the Maastricht treaty in 1993 the EU began to

expand

throughout

Europe

to

include

countries

whose

economic and political values were, at least in the past, more and more diverse. With

such

infrastructures

large

and

differences

labor

rates

there

in would

economic seem

to

be

significant opportunities for growth from some the Eastern European

countries.

These

countries

should

be

able

to

demand new investment due to the abundance of relatively cheap labor.

Companies from within the EU and abroad will

continue to migrate towards the cheaper markets taking jobs and

wealth

developing

away one.

from It

the is

established

imperative

economies

for

the

to

members

the to

understand this and to shift their economies in order to prepare.

Otherwise, as the East becomes more prosperous

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


over

the

coming

years,

the

French

and

German

type

governments may look for ways to prevent the loss of jobs. If

their

workers

are

not

prepared,

they

will

face

significant pressure from their citizens to take actions which may not concur with the EU treaties.

The conflict

created due to the income disparities between the countries will

have

to

be

addressed

in

order

to

ensure

that

the

arrangement works for everyone and not at the expense of others. -Maintaining equal representation without losing power As the EU grows, possibly to include Turkey, a gradual shifting smaller

of and

influence newer

will

members.

continue

to

transfer

This

should

leave

to

the

France,

Germany, UK, and other developed economies with a feeling of uneasiness.

These founding members of the EU, the face

of Europe, could quickly find themselves in the minority with respect to economic policy and political ideology. These countries no doubt understand for maintaining equal

representation

and

giving

each

member

and

equal

voice, but at the same time they must be concerned that their

own

admitted

influence to

the

EU

is

at

these

risk. founding

With

each

members

new

must

member face

a

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


renewed uneasiness with respect to the direction the EU is taking.

Combating

the

shifting

balance

of

power

while

maintaining the equal footing for all, while not something they will admit to, is a serious consideration for many of these countries.

Europe’s
 place
 in
 the
 world:
 an
 outsider’s
 perspective

The EU gives the countries of Europe a unified voice with respect to economic policies around the world which gives

them

the

power

to

influence

political decisions as well.

environmental

As the EU has grown, its

influence and global importance has changed as well. its

borders

stretch

farther

and

and

farther

to

the

As

eastern

parts of Europe, the political and economic conflicts have become more complex and vital to the global economy. In order for Europe to remain relevant it must accept its

responsibility

as

an

economic

global

force.

The

Geary
Graham
 Washington
University
in
St.
Louis
 May
28,
2007
 


economies actions.

of

nations

The

EU

are

must

increasingly embrace

leadership role in world events.

this

tied fact

to

political

and

take

a

The only way to ensure

stability in the region which will leave an environment for economic

growth

is

to

forces around the world.

aggressively

engage

destabilizing

From Sudan to the Middle East,

from China to North Korea, to global warming, the EU has the responsibility and the clout to engage the world from a position of power.

Failures to act and accept its role on

the world stage, the countries of the European Union face becoming globally irrelevant. than most understand.




This is more destabilizing