Poland

October 2009

Poland: A Regional Power ? by Jeremy W.Walters (BSc, MA)

2009 marks the latest of Poland’s many milestones on the road to re-establishing itself as a regional power akin to the status it enjoyed in the mid 17th century. It has now been 20 years since the dramatic fall of communism and the re-birth of a free Poland. During that time many important steps have been taken in an ever strident effort to secure both political and military integrity. This year also marks the 10th anniversary of Poland’s entry in to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). In this essay I will discuss the achievements that have been made and look at the direction in which Poland is heading in terms of security and foreign policy.

Establishing an International Presence

Polish membership of both NATO and the European Union (EU) were from the

offset primary policy goals during the 1990s. These were achieved in 1999 and 2004 respectively. As part of NATO Poland has taken part in the Afghanistan mission, and to secure it status as a dependable ally of the USA (NATO’s paramount power), also in the Iraq mission. The latter finished earlier this year; while the Polish force in Afghanistan successfully carried out its first offensive operation (Op Eagle’s Feather) also this year. The conduction of Op Eagle’s Feather has significance beyond its limited affect upon theatre operations. This was the first time since the end of communism that Polish soldiers deployed offensively.

Modernising the Military

During the Cold War the Polish military was a large conscript based organisation

designed to conduct defensive operations of a conventional manner. In 1989 the new Polish state inherited a huge and somewhat overwhelming organisation that was technologically outdated and tactically inefficient for the role in which Poland was to find itself as a member of NATO. Since that time much has been done to re-equip and re-train the Polish military. An inevitable part of that has been the professionalisation of the armed forces with the last group of conscripts being sworn in to the military in Dec 2008. Poland has invested heavily in modern technology with the Leopard tank and Rosmark APC (Armoured Personnel Carrier) significantly improving the land forces capability and manoeuvrability. The most costly and high-profile purchase has been the F-16 Fighter from Lockheed-Martin which replaces Soviet era Mig-29s and Su-22s. These vehicles combined with the general re-structuring of the Polish military along NATO lines have been somewhat controversially paid for by the 22.6 billion Złoty defence budget (2008 figure: 7.4 $ billion). This budget makes Poland one of the biggest European defence spenders proportional to its size (1.95% GDP). Alas Poland still does not have a strategic lift capability nor logistical organisation capable of deploying the military overseas and therefore relies upon its NATO allies, primarily the USA, for missions such as Afghanistan. Poland: A Regional Power ?

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October 2009

Poland: A Regional Power ?

Political Assertiveness

From a policy perspective Poland has tried to place itself at the heart of both the

EU and NATO. During 2009 Poland nominated three individuals to senior NATO/European positions: Radosław Sikorski for NATO Secretary General, Wlodzimersz Cimoszewicz for Council of Europe Secretary General and Jerzy Buzek for European Parliament President. Poland achieved a 1 out of 3 success rate with Jerzy Buzek being elected President in July 09. This drive to become a central player within these organisations has been matched by Polish foreign policy within central and Eastern Europe. The high-profile involvement of President Kaczynski during Russian/Georgian hostilities in 2008 and the support of Ukraine’s ‘Orange Revolution’ are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of Poland’s engagement in regional affairs.

Reasons behind Poland’s Actions

The motivation behind Poland’s assertion of its position has its roots in Poland’s

turbulent past. Many Poles still feel a sense of betrayal at the way Poland was dealt with by its allies during and after the Second World War and this, coupled with the cultural memory of Poland’s partition at the end of the 18th century and the more recent forced membership of the Soviet-bloc, leaves Poland insecure as to its territorial integrity. It is not surprising therefore that successive Polish governments have been so ever-forward in there bid to make Poland a central NATO and European actor.

Tightly connected with this sense of in-security and bid for security reassurances

from its allies is the missile defence project first outlined by the US Bush administration. Poland was caught somewhat off-guard by the abrupt cancellation of the project by President Obama and saw the project along with the stationing of US troops on Polish soil as a way of guaranteeing a US response to aggression by a third party upon Poland. Vice-President Joe Biden during his October visit to Warsaw was therefore doing his utmost to reassure Poland of US military support. This came shortly after the announcement of a new missile project by The Whitehouse. Were Poland to eventually host US troops it would confirm Poland as an important strategic ally for the US. However, it would do little to increase Poland’s own status as a regional power.

Poland’s Future

The two strung path Poland is trying to tread, one of both military and political

dimensions, has both drawbacks and advantages. While expanding its military powers Poland does indeed gain notoriety within the international community. However, the amount of 'hard power' currency that can be gained is at best limited. Poland's economy can not at present maintain the sort of investments that are required of a global actor. Apart from the USA there are only two other NATO members who regularly deploy troops outside of a peacekeeping framework: France and the United Kingdom. These two Poland: A Regional Power ?

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October 2009

Poland: A Regional Power ?

countries are both members of the economic G8 group and have a GDP far in excess of Poland's. Even on a regional basis, Poland's military would be unable to operate outside of a NATO/coalition setting. This of course does not mean that Poland's efforts are wasted. The modernisation of the Polish military was well over due and the experience gained in foreign operations is invaluable for the men and women of the armed services. It should just be recognised that today's 'strategic partner' can be tomorrow's 'friendly nation'. Were an example of how situations can change easily, the Polish government should look no further than the 'special relationship' between the USA and UK. In 1982 the Falklands Crisis and War highlighted that there are limits to the amount of help that can be given and many in Britain were left aghast at the apparent cold treatment the UK received from its special ally.

Unanswered Questions

Politically, a resurgent Poland is able to gain certain advantages such as the op-

out clause in the Lisburn Treaty regarding the Human Rights Charter. The question is of course whether such a path can be maintained over the foreseeable future. At present the Polish economy is strong in relative terms and both the governing and opposition parties in the Polish parliament generally support such moves. Poland may not be able to regain the heights of 17th Century Europe, but it can undoubtedly become a mainstay of both NATO and EU power politics. Poland recognises that to succeed in today's world it must be part of strong organisations. However, that does not mean that it can not put forward its own objectives once in a while.

Poland: A Regional Power ?

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