Peak

+ oil referred to in the term peak oil is petroleum + crude oil lifeblood of modern civilization + raw form of the gasoline we put in our cars and + the liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) + primary feedstock for many of the chemicals and products essential to modern life + most important energy source found in the planet

+ naturally occurring, flammable liquid found in rock formations miles beneath the Earth’s crust consisting of a complex mixture of hydrocarbons of various molecular weights and other organic compounds

Importance + 35% of the world’s primary energy consumption is supplied by oil + Transportation general for any country, relies to well over 90% on oil + economy and the lifestyle of industrialized societies rely heavily on the sufficient supply of oil

Problem + increase in world population  demand for oil increases + oil is finite, therefore….

+ oil has reached its maximum production rate, and a decline in production is immediately going to succeed + M. King Hubbert (1965)

“the output of individual oil reservoirs rises after discovery, reaches a peak and declines thereafter”

++ based on RESERVOIR RESERVES

+ No one can accurately predict when it will occur/ has occurred ( between 2005 to 2012 according to independent analysts) + there will still be large reserves remaining when oil production peaks + HOWEVER this means that world oil production has no capability to increase further than this point, thus predicting a decrease in production + improved technology for improved reservoir detection and extraction will come too late

+ Since oil affects almost ALL products and goods, a ripple effect follows

PRICE INCREASE  BUSINESS CLOSURE  UNEMPLOYMENT  TAX DELINQUENCIES  GOV’T INABILTY TO PROVIDE BASIC SERVICES  DEGRADATION OF LIVING STANDARDS  MORE ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS

Mitigation + attempt to delay the date and minimize the social and economic impact of peak oil by reducing the world's consumption and reliance on petroleum + involves fuel conservation and use of alternative and renewable energy sources + The development of non-conventional oil resources ( or oil that is not readily in liquid form) can extend the use of petroleum, but does not reduce consumption

Fuel conservation = Fuel efficiency 1. Retrofits – the improvisation in efficiency of existing equipment, 2. Displacement technologies – replacement of existing equipment with more efficient ones + hybrid systems + alternative fuels Bio- fuels ( gasoline + ethanol) LPG (liquified gas) used cooking oil and fuel-cell

Hindrances – market penetration regarding such technologies is not easy + hybrid systems –require time for major refitting of refineries + alternative fuels specifically Ethanol may defy agriculture -energy output < amount of ethanol sources

RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES + solar powers (panels) + wind power + hydroelectric power + geothermal power + nuclear power (?) (though full utilization may take decades more)

Non-conventional oil sources + heavy oil (denser and more viscous crude oil)

+ oil/tar sands – from shallower reservoirs/ thicker than heav oil (does not flow) + oil shales containing kerogen (needs to be heated to turn into oil) HOWEVER + net energy to extract oil from these sources is less

than that of conventional sources…

We also must put in mind that while the shape of the oil production curve can be affected by mitigation efforts, mitigation efforts, since they are energy sources as well, are also affected by the shape of Hubbert curve

Worst-case scenario due to early PEAK OIL + Giant oil field reserves are much less than stated. + Terrorism stays at current levels or increases and concentrates on damaging oil production, transportation, refining and distribution, also delaying the realization of peaking and initiation of mitigation. + Political instability in major oil producing countries results in unexpected, sustained world-scale oil shortages due to hindered production. + Consumers demand even larger, less fuel-efficient vehicles and machinery. + Expansion of energy production is hindered by increasing environmental challenges, creating other shortages aside from liquid fuel.

Possible scenarios delaying PEAK OIL + previous assumptions were wrong and the peak is still decades away. + Reserves of giant oil fields are higher than publicly stated + new super-giant oil fields are found and brought into production; well before oil peaking might otherwise have occurred + High world oil prices over a sustained period (10 years or above) induce a higher level of structural conservation and energy efficiency, with additional effort from the highest oil consuming countries + world economic and population growth slows and future demand is much less than anticipated + oil prices stay at a high enough level on a sustained basis so that industry begins construction of alternative fuel plants well before oil peaking. + some kind of scientific breakthrough comes into commercial use, mitigating oil demand well before production peaks.

Viable scenarios on mitigation and oil peaking + Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades + Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked + Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period

Viable scenarios on mitigation and oil peaking + Waiting until world oil production peaks before taking crash program action leaves the world with a significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades + Initiating a mitigation crash program 10 years before world oil peaking helps considerably but still leaves a liquid fuels shortfall roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked + Initiating a mitigation crash program 20 years before peaking appears to offer the possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period