Tomorrow’s Sustainable World: George Seielstad

Tomorrow’s Sustainable World Student Airborne Science Program July 13, 2009

George Seielstad

Sustainability • Meeting needs and values of today’s generation of humanity. • Preserving planet’s life-support systems so needs and values of future generations can be met.

The Perfect Moral Storm Three Converging Dimensions • Inter-Generational • Intra-Generational • Inter-Species

1,1 40 ,000 Supermarket P every hour

aper Bags

Ar tist Chri s Jor dan, 2007 “Runni ng the Number s” htt p: // www. chri sjor dan. c om

15,000,000 Sheets of Paper every 5 minutes

Artist Chris Jordan, 2007 “Running the Numbers” http://www.chrisjordan.com

Artist Chris Jordan, 2007 “Running the Numbers” http://www.chrisjordan.com

28,000 Barrels of Oil Every 2 Minutes

Earth, an Integrated System Tahitian Pollution from African Fires

Modified from Blake et al., 1999

Single Human Family

Kareiva et al., Science 316 : 1866-1869 (2007)

The Economist March 10, 2007

● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Nutrient Recycling Water Purification Climate Moderation Pollination Soil Stabilization Library of Genes Radiation Protection

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Inflection Point for Civilization Present CO2 Onset of Civilization

Historic Good Fortune Epoch of Human Civilization Coincident with Sweet Spot 0

-4

-8

100000

80000

60000

40000

Years before Present

20000

0

Bowles, Sci ence 314 : 1569 (2006)

T E M P E R A T U R E

160 Years Ranked by Temperature

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/12/uk-met-office-f.html#more

Wildfires

Floods

2003 Paris Heatwave Deaths

FIGURE 1-- Comparison of daily mortality rate and mean temperature in Paris, France, for the years 2003 and 1999 through 2002

Mean Daily Temp, 2003 12 °C above normal

Average Daily Temp, 1999-2002

Vandentorren, S. et al. Am J Public Health 2004;94:1518-1520

Copyright ©2004 American Public Health Association

~900 Extra Deaths in 2003

Transportation

600,000,000 vehicles worldwide 86,000,000 barrels petroleum burned daily. 32,000,000 tons CO2 per day

Contempocentrism: Me Generations 8,000 preceding generations

100,000s generations to follow

5 Generations

Contempocentrism Newfoundland Fishery

1 Generation

World’s Water

Dams’ Impacts on Rivers

Green, unimpacted Yellow, moderately impacted Red, strongly impacted

Nilsson et al., Scienc e 30 8 , 405 (2005)

Human Domination--Water • Humanity uses >50% of surface freshwater • In U.S., only 2% of rivers run unimpeded. • Many rivers no longer reach the sea.

Land-Use Change

Land-Use Change

Land-Use Change

Land-Use Change

Land-Use Change

Global Land Use • 14% for Crops • 28% for Grazing Domestic Animals • Unchanged Land largely at high latitudes and altitudes Running, Scie nce 321 (2008): 652

Agriculture’s Trends Fertilizer

Fo

v e r

? r e

Land

Pesticide Imports Pesticides

Tilman et al., Sci ence 292 : 281-284, 13 April 2001.

Intergenerational Moral Storm Humankind changing every part of Planet Earth faster and by larger steps than any past changes

Now living beyond Earth’s carrying capacity---by depriving future generations.

Inte r-Sp ecie s Moral St orm Extinction rate now 100-1000 x natural rate.

Chapin et al., 2000

Fast Pace World’s population of Black Rhinoceroses: 1972: 65,000 1993:

1,900

Hluhluwe-Umfolozi Park South Africa

Family of Life

Phytoplankton

• produce much of the oxygen we breathe

Su stainabili ty

Social Justice

al ic y og it ol gr Ec nte I

ic m y o t n i o al c E Vit

Where Humans Live…and How

Pressure on Planet = Population + Affluence

Significance Peace, Stable World Order, Sustainability are indivisible

Can have none where poverty overwhelms.

2004 Nobel P eace Prize to Wangari M aathai

Peace/Democracy/Sustainability Afghanistan

Haiti

Iraq Sudan

Rwanda Burundi

Intragenerational Moral Storm

Tonle Sap River, Cambodia $5/day average income

Size of Economic Gap • 1.2 billion people <$1 per day Another 2 billion <$2 per day • 6% of people ↔ 50% of wealth • Richest 15 people wealthier than all 550 million sub-Saharan Africans • 358 global billionaires as wealthy as 2.3 billion poorest people Serageldin, Sci ence 296 , 54-58 (2002)

Age Distributions

Future Human Family

Rare Historic Opportunity If people are the problem, we are also the sol uti on.

“What we have before us are some breathtaking opportunities disguised as insoluble problems.” John Gardner, Pres. Johnson’s Secy. of Health, Education, Welfare

Optimism “I guess it’s wrong always to be worrying about tomorrow. Maybe we should only think about today.” Linus

“No, that’s giving up. I’m still hoping that yesterday will get better.” Charlie Brown

Catastrophe Avoided

Projected if No Protocol

Expected after Montreal Protocol Paul Newman, http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003500/a003586/index.html

CFCs in Atmosphere

Montreal Protocol

HOW DO AIRBORNE FIELD CAMPAIGNS Satellites AFFECT POLICY? Models

2 yrs

5 yrs 10 yrs

Aircraft Information synthesis Improved knowledge; publications in scientific journals

Time not a luxury we enjoy. Improved model predictions Summary assessments for policymakers:  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Arctic Council UNEP Hemispheric Transport of Pollution Assessment

Better­informed decisions to protect the environment

Case for Action • Much known now about global environment. • Less known outside academic and research communities. • Planetary changes occurring at unprecedented pace. • Biggest change-driver is Humanity.

Rowland and Molina “Isn’t it a responsibility of scientists, if you believe that you have found something that can affect the environment, . . . to actually do something about it, enough so that action actually takes place?” (Molina) “if not us, who? If not now, when?” (Rowland) “The CFC-Ozone Puzzle,” NCSE (2000)

Triggering Change Locally 1974: 6,000,000,000 spray cans produced per year. Rowland Household: 15 spray cans “So my wife and I went around and threw them all out, and I thought, 15 down and 6 billion to go.” Sherwood Rowland “The CFC-Ozone Puzzle,” NCSE (2000)

Lessons Learned • Share what you learn with the general public. • Begin: take steps possible now • Adapt: build on successes • Be holistic: integrate social, economic, environmental, legal, political solutions • Communicate: translate science into actions

New Core Values • Abandon concepts of: – Unlimited growth in a finite world – Short-term Planning

• Transform Economy: – Traditional Capitalism: Exploit resources of planet to support human wishes – Natural Capitalism: Exploit human resources to support just, equitable, responsible planetary stewardship

World’s Most Needed Qualities • Original, Creative Thought • Planetary Literacy • Distinction between Need and Want • More Investment, Less Consumption • Cultural Inclusiveness • Life-cycle Planning • Action--Now

Moral Obligations • Work on behal f of : – Al l Your G ener ati on – Al l Fut ure Gen erati ons – Al l Speci es • For Al l Ti me

Pale Blue Dot Earth

Pale Blue Dot Moon

Earth

This distant image of our tiny world. It underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we’ve ever known. Carl Sagan

The End

George Seielstad BAERI [email protected]