Palisade_distribution Fitting.xlsx

Distribution DistributionFitting Fitting

The Thedata datainincolumn columnCCof ofthe thenext nextsheet sheetrepresent representthree threeyears yearsof ofweekly weeklydemands demandsfor foraacompany's company'sproduct. product.The Thedata dataare are nonnegative, unbounded above (no natural upper bound), and essentially continuous. (They are actually integer nonnegative, unbounded above (no natural upper bound), and essentially continuous. (They are actually integervalues, values,b are areso somany manyinteger integervalues valuesthat thataacontinuous continuousdistribution distributionmakes makessense.) sense.)From Fromhere, here,@RISK's @RISK'sdistribution distributionfitting fittingtool toolcan canbb suggest good fits to the data. Actually, once you enter properties of the data, such as a fixed lower bound of 0, the Distrib suggest good fits to the data. Actually, once you enter properties of the data, such as a fixed lower bound of 0, the Distrib Fit Fittab tabof ofthe theFit FitDistributions Distributionsdialog dialogselects selectsall alldistributions distributionsthat thatmeet meetyour yourcriteria. criteria.IfIfthere thereare aresome someyou youdon't don'twant wantto tott because you are not familiar with them), you can uncheck them. For this example, all but the exponential, lognormal, and because you are not familiar with them), you can uncheck them. For this example, all but the exponential, lognormal, an were wereunchecked. unchecked.The Thechart chartof ofthe thetwo twobest-fitting best-fittingdistribution distributionto tothese thesedata, data,the theWeibull Weibulldistribution distributionwith withparameters parameters1.6 1.6 119.92, and the lognormal distribution with parameters 109.34 and 84.071, is shown. At this point, either of 119.92, and the lognormal distribution with parameters 109.34 and 84.071, is shown. At this point, either ofthese thesedistrib distrib could couldbe beentered enteredininaacell cell(possibly (possiblyrounded roundedto toan aninteger), integer),as ashas hasbeen beendone doneinincell cellF25. F25.

Note Notethat thatonce onceaadata dataset sethas hasbeen beenfit, fit,as asitithas hashere, here,you youwill willsee seeititininthe theDistribution DistributionFitting Fittingdropdown dropdownlist listunder underDefined Define allows you to get back to it easily if you need to. allows you to get back to it easily if you need to. Note: Note: The TheIndustrial Industrialor orProfessional Professionaledition editionisisrequired requiredto touse usethe theDistribution DistributionFitting Fittingfeature featureof of@RISK. @RISK.

mpany's product. ompany's product.The Thedata dataare are hey are actually integer hey are actually integervalues, values,but butthere there K's distribution SK's distributionfitting fittingtool toolcan canbe beused usedto to ed lower xed lowerbound boundof of0,0,the theDistributions Distributionsto to re are ere aresome someyou youdon't don'twant wantto totry try(maybe (maybe the exponential, lognormal, and t the exponential, lognormal, andWeibull Weibull distribution distributionwith withparameters parameters1.6762 1.6762and and this point, either of these distributions this point, either of these distributions

tting ttingdropdown dropdownlist listunder underDefined DefinedFits. Fits.This This

ure ureof of@RISK. @RISK.

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

Demand 135 34 128 52 54 148 81 22 31 163 144 168 166 53 80 104 94 33 60 45 12 101 66 52 287 117 60 121 83 96 38 85 105 174 97 176 295 58 127 113 190 99 68 224

Future demand

107

45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89

15 115 182 269 141 76 86 37 116 139 155 153 146 22 304 151 29 142 87 30 90 52 298 80 105 218 74 71 52 80 50 92 218 67 112 183 148 157 77 13 51 67 128 67 65

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134

68 16 176 58 30 165 69 283 42 279 78 49 38 73 57 152 162 60 52 107 101 69 38 108 66 41 91 116 163 86 178 59 59 91 73 198 54 275 76 108 204 112 19 57 348

135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156

75 84 69 150 34 42 105 108 86 95 24 93 149 225 15 115 131 144 118 118 93 111