Pa-11: F&m Poll

For immediate release Wednesday, September 17, 2008

September 2008 Franklin & Marshall College Poll PENNSYLVANIA 11 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SURVEY SUMMARY OF FINDINGS th

Prepared by: Center for Opinion Research Floyd Institute for Public Policy Franklin & Marshall College BERWOOD A. YOST DIRECTOR, FLOYD INSTITUTE FOR PUBLIC POLICY DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH HEAD METHODOLOGIST, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

G. TERRY MADONNA DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS DIRECTOR, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

JENNIFER L. HARDING PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH PROJECT MANAGER, FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE POLL

ANGELA N. KNITTLE PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

BRAD A. NANKERVILLE ASSISTANT PROJECT MANAGER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

KAY K. HUEBNER PROGRAMMER, CENTER FOR OPINION RESEARCH

September 16, 2008

Table of Contents METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 2 KEY FINDINGS ............................................................................................................................. 4 TABLE A-1. PRESIDENTIAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .......... 7 TABLE A-2. CONGRESSIONAL VOTE CHOICE BY SELECTED DEMOGRAPHICS .... 8 MARGINAL FREQUENCY REPORT......................................................................................... 9

Methodology This release summarizes the findings of a survey of 547 registered adults living in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District conducted by Franklin and Marshall College’s Center for Opinion Research. The survey interviewing was conducted between September 9 and 14, 2008. The sample error for the entire sample is plus or minus 4.2 percent but is larger for subgroups. Telephone numbers for the survey were randomly selected from state voter registration lists. The final sample includes 185 Republicans, 317 Democrats, and 37 adults registered as Independent or something else. In addition to sampling error, this poll is also subject to other sources of non-sampling error. Generally speaking, two sources of error concern researchers most. Non-response bias is created when selected participants either choose not to participate in the survey or are unavailable for interviewing. Response errors are the product of the question and answer process. Surveys that rely on self-reported behaviors and attitudes are susceptible to biases related to the way respondents process and respond to survey questions. This survey used a registration-based sampling (RBS) scheme to identify survey respondents. This sampling process uses voter lists and information about 2

past voting history and date of registration to classify voters into separate strata based on historical turnout in similar, prior elections. Historical turnout information determines the selection probabilities within each stratum. The sample was generated by Voter Contact Services, and a more detailed description of the RBS scheme can be found on their website (http://www.vcsnet.com/rbshelp.html). A methodological study describing the merits of the RBS technique in comparison to traditional random-digit-dialing sampling methodologies can be found in Donald Green and Alan Gerber (2006) “Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Mid-Term Election Forecasts?” Public Opinion Quarterly, 70 (2): 197 – 223.

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Key Findings The latest Franklin and Marshall College Poll, conducted in Pennsylvania’s 11th Congressional District, shows long-term incumbent Democrat Paul Kanjorski trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta by nine points, 44 percent to 35 percent. Congressman Kanjorski’s support among registered Democrats is weak; only half of Democrats are planning to vote for him (see Figure 1). Lou Barletta is supported by about seven in ten registered Republicans, and he also wins half of independent voters. Barletta has a sizable advantage among men, and there are differences in voter preference depending on county of residence (see Table A-2). The most ominous sign for the incumbent is that less than two in five (35%) registered adults in the district believe he deserves re-election. Figure 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Party Registration Barletta

Republicans

Democrats

Independents/ Other

Kanjorski

69

Other

11

28

51

54

4

21

1

27

Don’t know

21

19

About one in five (21%) registered adults say the economy is the primary issue driving their congressional vote choice, but nearly the same proportion say concerns about government (19%) and immigration (17%) are driving their votes. Kanjorski has a small advantage among those who are voting on economic issues, but Barletta has a clear advantage among those concerned about government and immigration (see Table 1). Table 1. Pennsylvania 11th CD Vote Choice by Main Issue

Immigration, illegal Government, politicians Taxes Economy Health care, insurance Gasoline/oil prices, energy Education, school Other Don’t know

Barletta 84% 55% 33% 31% 27% 27% 22% 38% 29%

Kanjorski 7% 35% 33% 41% 54% 60% 44% 41% 42%

5

Other 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

DK 10% 10% 33% 26% 19% 13% 33% 21% 28%

The Presidential Race Barack Obama leads John McCain narrowly in the 11th Congressional District, 43 percent to 40 percent, with about 14 percent undecided. McCain has a one point advantage over Obama, 44 percent to 43 percent, among likely voters. McCain garners more support from Republicans than Obama receives from Democrats and he also has an advantage among registered independents (see Figure 2). McCain leads among Protestants, and Obama leads among Catholics (see Table A-1). By far, the economy is the primary issue driving voter preferences in the presidential election (47%). Figure 2. Presidential Vote Choice in PA 11th by Party Registration Obama/Biden

Republicans

McCain/Palin

10

77

Democrats

Independents/ Other

Other

1

65

17

31

47

6

Don’t know

3

8

12

15

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Table A-1. Presidential Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD) If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote?

McCain

Obama

Other

DK

Male Female

45% 36%

42% 44%

3% 3%

11% 17%

18-34 35-54 55 and over

39% 40% 40%

50% 45% 42%

3% 3% 2%

8% 12% 16%

40% 43% 48%

2% 5% 3%

17% 11% 12%

48% 43% 46%

2% 1% 3%

12% 16% 11%

43% 58%

2% 17%

15% 0%

41% 47% 49%

2% 4% 3%

13% 14% 18%

33% 47% 51%

2% 1% 9%

19% 14% 4%

35% 45%

1% 3%

15% 14%

53% 40%

4% 2%

11% 15%

31% 46%

3% 3%

14% 14%

31% 40% 41% 50% 54%

0% 2% 5% 2% 4%

16% 14% 13% 15% 14%

10% 65% 31%

1% 3% 8%

12% 15% 14%

Gender

Age

Education High School or Less 41% Some College 41% College Degree 38% Household Income Less than $35,000 39% $35-75,000 40% Over $75,000 40% Race* White 40% Non-white 25% Marital Status Married 43% Single, never married 35% Not currently married 31% Religious Affiliation* Protestant 46% Catholic 38% Other/unaffiliated 36% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist Yes 49% No 38% Household Union Member* Yes 31% No 43% Military Veteran* Yes 52% No 37% County* Columbia 53% Luzerne 44% Monroe 40% Carbon 33% Lackawanna 28% Party Registration* Republican 77% Democrat 17% Independent/Other 47% * Significant differences (p<.05)

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Table A-2. Congressional Vote Choice by Selected Demographics (PA 11th CD) If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican and Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat, would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t you sure how you would vote?

Barletta

Kanjorski

Other

DK

Male Female

49% 39%

36% 35%

0% 1%

14% 26%

18-34 35-54 55 and over

47% 40% 45%

22% 34% 36%

0% 1% 0%

31% 24% 18%

33% 36% 37%

0% 0% 1%

22% 21% 18%

42% 33% 35%

0% 0% 1%

18% 22% 21%

35% 31%

1% 0%

20% 46%

31% 33% 43%

0% 1% 0%

21% 20% 20%

26% 38% 48%

0% 1% 0%

28% 17% 16%

29% 37%

1% 0%

26% 19%

42% 33%

1% 1%

16% 22%

30% 36%

0% 1%

11% 23%

23% 33% 35% 42% 43%

1% 0% 1% 0% 0%

18% 16% 22% 27% 26%

11% 51% 27%

0% 1% 0%

21% 21% 19%

Gender*

Age

Education High School or Less 44% Some College 43% College Degree 44% Household Income Less than $35,000 40% $35-75,000 45% Over $75,000 42% Race White 44% Non-white 23% Marital Status Single, never married 48% Married 46% Not currently married 37% Religious Affiliation* Protestant 46% Catholic 43% Other/unaffiliated 36% Born Again Christian or Fundamentalist Yes 43% No 44% Household Union Member Yes 42% No 45% Military Veteran* Yes 59% No 40% County* Columbia 58% Luzerne 50% Monroe 42% Carbon 31% Lackawanna 30% Party Registration* Republican 69% Democrat 28% Independent/Other 54% * Significant differences (p<.05)

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Marginal Frequency Report REG. Some people are registered to vote, and many others are not. Are you CURRENTLY REGISTERED to vote at your present address? 100%

Yes

RegPARTY. Are you currently registered as a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or as something else? 58% 34% 6% 1% 1%

Democrat Republican Independent Something else Don’t know

Vote_Nov. Many people will vote in the election in November, however, many other people will not. What would you say are the chances you will vote in the November presidential election? Are you certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances fifty-fifty you will vote, OR don't you think that you will vote in the November election for president? 88% 6% 3% 2%

Certain to vote Will probably vote Chances 50-50 Don’t think will vote

Pol_Int. Some people don't pay much attention to political campaigns. How about you? Would you say that you are…in the 2008 presidential campaign? 71% 25% 4%

Very much interested Somewhat interested Not very interested

IntFav. Please let me know your opinion of some people involved in politics today...Is your opinion of __ favorable, unfavorable, undecided, or haven't heard enough about __ to have an opinion? (rotated)

Sarah Palin Lou Barletta John McCain Joe Biden Barack Obama Paul Kanjorski

Strongly favorable 31% 31% 28% 27% 24% 19%

Somewhat favorable 14% 18% 21% 22% 23% 21%

Somewhat unfavorable 8% 9% 12% 10% 9% 14%

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Strongly unfavorable 18% 13% 22% 14% 22% 24%

Undecided 12% 16% 16% 12% 18% 16%

Don’t know 18% 14% 2% 15% 4% 7%

Pres08. If the November general election for president were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, would you vote for John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, some other candidate, or aren't you sure how you would vote? 43% 40% 3% 14%

Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know

Cert. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill Pres08] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? 448

Subsample size

82% 18%

Certain Still making up mind

Lean. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) John McCain and Sarah Palin, the Republicans, Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats, or are you leaning toward some other candidate? 84 31% 23% 3% 44%

Subsample size Barack Obama/Joe Biden John McCain/Sarah Palin Other Don’t know

IssPrim. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for president this year? (rotated) Foreign policy, the Iraq war, the economy, healthcare, energy policy, taxes, moral and family values, or something else? 47% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 4% 4% 3%

The economy The Iraq War Healthcare Energy policy Moral and family values Something else Taxes Foreign policy Don’t know

CD08. If the November general election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today and the candidates were (rotated) Lou Barletta, the Republican and Paul Kanjorski, the Democrat, would you vote for Lou Barletta, Paul Kanjorski, or aren’t you sure how you would vote? 44% 35% 21%

Lou Barletta Paul Kanjorski Don’t know

10

CertCD. Are you absolutely CERTAIN you will vote FOR [fill CD08] in the election, or are you still making up your mind? 429

Subsample size

86% 14%

Certain Still making up mind

LeanCD. As of today, do you lean more to (rotated) Lou Barletta the Republican or Paul Kanjorski the Democrat? 115

Subsample size

32% 30% 38%

Paul Kanjorski Lou Barletta Don’t know

IssCD. What will be the single most important issue in your vote for U.S. House of Representatives this year? 21% 19% 17% 5% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 23%

Economy, personal finances, cost of living Government, politicians Immigration, illegal immigration Taxes Healthcare, insurance Gasoline/oil prices, energy Education, schools Elder issues, social security Civil liberties Iraq War Values, morality, religion Other Don’t know

DesRECD. Do you believe that Paul Kanjorski has done a good enough job in the U.S. House of Representatives to DESERVE RE-ELECTION, or do you believe it is TIME FOR A CHANGE? 35% 54% 11%

Deserves re-election Time for a change Don’t know

RatePres. How would you rate the way that George Bush is handling his job as president? Would you say he is doing an...as president? 4% 16% 25% 54% 1%

Excellent Good Fair Poor Don’t know

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UStrk. All in all, do you think things in the United States are generally headed in the RIGHT DIRECTION, or do you feel that things are off on the WRONG TRACK? 19% 76% 5%

Right direction Wrong track Don’t know

MIP_YF. What do you think is the MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM facing YOU and YOUR FAMILY TODAY? 54% 11% 10% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 6%

Economy, personal finances, cost of living Healthcare, insurance Gasoline/oil prices, energy Taxes Elder issues, social security Education, schools Terrorism, foreign policy Values, morality, religion Housing, real estate Immigration, illegal immigration Personal health issues Government, politicians Nothing Other Don’t know

Gov. Do you think that the problems facing you and your family can be solved with the help of the government, or are these problems beyond what you think the government can do? 71% 21% 8%

With help of government Beyond what government can do Don’t know

FinToday. We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that YOU and YOUR FAMILY are better off, worse off, or about the same financially as you were a year ago? 11% 44% 44% 1%

Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know

FinFut. Now looking AHEAD, do you think that A YEAR FROM NOW, YOU and YOUR FAMILY will be better off financially than you are now, worse off, or about the same as you are now? 27% 15% 44% 15%

Better off Worse off About the same Don’t know

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I now have a final few questions for statistical purposes only. CNTY. What is the name of the county you live in? 39% 22% 17% 13% 9%

Luzerne Lackawanna Monroe Columbia Carbon

Resd. How many years have you lived at your current address? 24

Mean

AGE. What was your age on your last birthday? 2% 5% 10% 20% 24% 39%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65 and older

EDUC. What was the last grade level of schooling you have completed? 3% 42% 12% 12% 19% 13%

Non high school graduate High school graduate or GED Some college Two-year or tech degree Four year college degree Post graduate degree

MAR. What is your CURRENT marital status, are you single, married, separated, divorced, or a widower? 10% 69% 1% 7% 14%

Single, Never Married Married Separated Divorced Widow or widower

PRTY1. Regardless of how you are registered, in politics, as of today, do you think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? 17% 10% 11% 7% 11% 14% 29% 1%

Strong Republican Republican Lean Republican Pure Independent Lean Democrat Democrat Strong Democrat Do not know

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LABR. Are you or is any member of your household a member of a LABOR UNION? 26% 74%

Yes No

VET. Are you a military veteran? 20% 80%

Yes No

Hisp. Are you Hispanic or Latino, or not? 2% 98%

Yes No

RACE. Which of the following categories best describes your racial background? 97% 3%

White Non-white

REL. Do you consider yourself to be Protestant, Catholic, some other religion, or not affiliated with any religion? 32% 55% 4% 8% 1%

Protestant Catholic Some other religion Not affiliated with any religion Do not know

BAC. Do you consider yourself to be a born-again Christian or fundamentalist, or not? 18% 81% 2%

Yes No Don’t know

NumA. Including yourself, how many adults 18 years of age or OLDER CURRENTLY live in this household? 21% 58% 14% 7%

One Two Three Four or more

WORK. Are you currently working FULL-time, PART-time, going to school, keeping house or something else? 40% 10% 2% 6% 2% 2% 38%

Full-time Part-time Going to school Keeping house Unemployed Disabled Retired

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INC1. And, just for statistical purposes, we need to know if your total family income is above or below $50,000 per year? 16% 15% 15% 21% 14% 13% 6%

Under $25,000 $25-$35,000 $35-50,000 $50-75,000 $75-100,000 Over $100,000 Don’t know

DONE. Sex of respondent: 55% 45%

Female Male

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